Bitcoin is currently around US$120 000. It very briefly went through that psychological barrier, fell back to US$112 000, and will soon go decisively past US$120 000 Historically, Bitcoin followed a pattern of wild peaks and long depressing falls, but has now decisively broken from that pattern, because everyone wised up. The idiots stopped piling in on the peak, and the wise started buying on the dip. We now have a lot of lettuce hands, people who when they think …
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Current state of the scaling problem
A whole lot of shills have been posting a whole lot of mostly valid criticisms of Bitcoin, and I have been silently suppressing them, because I doubt their capability and willingness to have a genuinely informative discussion of Bitcoin, rather than randomly and unresponsively spewing fear, uncertainty, and doubt from scripts compiled by morons who did not understand these problems in the first place. But the issues need discussion anyway. When Bitcoin was just a gleam in Satoshi’s eye, the …
How to apply recursive snarks for a fully scalable, fully private, currency
From the very beginning of bitcoin, people worried that it could not scale to the required size. It does not scale because it is a massively replicated public ledger. Thus any real solution means making the ledger not public. Which means either centralization, a central bank digital currency, which is the path Ethereum is walking, or privacy. You cure both blockchain bloat and blockchain analysis by not putting the data on the reliable public broadcast channel in the first place, …
Hodling time
As investment advice, this post represents rumor, speculation, and incomplete information. Keep an eye on the bad weather I speak of, and make your own judgment about the storm. I have lost a great deal of money, and made a great deal of money. Future performance may not reflect past performance. I am long on land, stocks, and crypto currency. Will soon no longer be long on stocks. We are now a time of high inflation, though the CPI and …
Sanctions and crypto currency
For a long time it has been becoming more and more difficult and dangerous to perform international transactions in fiat money. It has suddenly become a lot more difficult and dangerous. Crypto currency is replacing fiat currency. The breakdown of trust and trustworthiness means that there is no alternative. That is why crypto currency scaling problems are now biting hard, and will soon be biting a great deal harder. Bankers have an incentive to create unsustainable debt bubbles. To prevent …
Five more years
Scott Alexander’s predictions for the next year have become ever more cautious, thus ever more boring and ever less likely to be falsified. And then he came up with a pile of wild assed stuff for the next five years: AI will be marked by various spectacular achievements, plus nobody being willing to say the spectacular achievements signify anything broader. AI will beat humans at progressively more complicated games, and we will hear how games are totally different from real …