In 1984, I said the Soviet Union was falling. In November 2005, I said the mortgage market was collapsing. I was very far from being the first to say those things, but I was in a minority when I said them. And here is another prophecy:  The decline of our currency, and the our inability to rebuild the two towers, are symptoms of an illness that will bring about American …
Category: economics
Arnold Kling predicts inflation
Inflation has already come back.
Inflation comes roaring back
People who argue for “stimulusâ€, or more “stimulusâ€, often correctly point out that no one doubts that government can increase nominal GDP.  Zimbabwe and Weimar Germany are excellent examples of government rapidly increasing nominal GDP. The question is, can government spending, particularly government spending on favored individuals and groups cozy with the government, increase useful employment, create real jobs that produce real value, create jobs where people work to produce …
Delong’s solution
Brad DeLong concludes the benevolent government should put those people to work – without, however, worrying as to what they will be doing, forgetting that people should work to produce the particular goods and services that other people want, or perhaps confidently believing that the wise folk of the government have lots of useful work for idle people to do, forgetting that a large part of the unemployed are unemployed because they were producing things, such as financial services or housing for non Asian minorities, that the recipients are demonstrably unwilling to pay for.
The improbable economic growth of Argentina.
Over the last hundred years or so, Argentina as swung violently, and with increasing frequency, between policies of on the one hand constitutionalism, rule of law, and the free market, and on the other hand populism, bureaucratic decree, and national socialism. It has also swung violently between being one of the wealthiest countries in the world, and being a typical third world poverty stricken hellhole. After the last crisis, it …
Losing in Afghanistan 3
Pashtuns need to be defeated, not morally uplifted.
American debt
Thus the excess “private” debt is not private. The normal level of public and “private†debt is about twice GDP, say twenty six trillion, so we are about thirty trillion or so in the hole and getting deeper fast – well past the danger level of twice GDP.
US turning french
It is getting steadily harder and harder for someone to find a new job – and having found a new job, harder and harder to afford a house – presumably because of the very great and rapidly increasing regulatory burden on building houses and hiring people. This renders employees powerless before their employers, which tends to result in class war and social violence as in France, and tends to result …
“There is no axis of evilâ€
http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2009/08/28/uae-seizes-ship-bound-for-irancarrying-north-korean-weapons/trackback/
The cause of the crisis 4
I have issued a bunch of posts, each titled the “the cause of the crisis”, and each giving a different cause – but each of these causes was itself caused by, or caused, all of the other causes. This post addresses ratings for debt.