Dark Maga explained

October 13th, 2024

Dark Maga is described by the legacy media as an aesthetic, rather than a political ideology, political program, or a political faction. They just don’t get it, because the left cannot meme.

Dark Maga is not just an aesthetic, it is a meme. And memes are not political ideologies or political factions either, but they are instruments that the meme magicians use to promote ideas that connect to systems of ideas, and systems of ideas inspire political programs and acquire priesthoods and thus become political factions.

Memes are not even ideas, they are a way of focusing attention on an idea. And focusing attention on idea focuses attention on the system of ideas of which it is part, and thus the promotes the power of organisations acting to give effect to the program implied by that system of ideas.

The idea promoted by the Dark Maga meme is that Trump will have to use drastic measures to ensure that the permanent government, the swamp, the deep state, obeys the merely elected and merely temporary government, rather than the other way around. The first Trump term was disrupted by the permanent government exercising power over the merely elected government. This needs to be fixed. And fixing it is likely to set sparks flying.

If you go to a Trump website to contribute to the Trump campaign by buying some Maga swag, the biggest selling Maga swag is Maga hats. Including Dark Maga hats. And suddenly everyone is buying Dark Maga hats. Meme magic at work. The Trump campaign is getting money, but also getting exposure for an idea by promoting these hats in their messaging to supporters and by their supporters wearing these hats. If Trump is permitted to be elected, we shall see if he makes use of that idea against a swamp that has been waging lawfare against him and is now is trying to kill him, or if it is merely yet another fund raising gimmick.

Trump, unlike the left, can meme. Can he govern, this time around? Getting smacked by a bullet is apt to wonderfully focus the mind. It is probable that the Trump fund raising machine does not know or care what these hats mean. But Trump knows what they mean.

Calling the dip

October 13th, 2024

The bell is ringing.

Last time around, I called the 2022 dip slightly too soon when bitcoin was at twenty thousand, then called it again, more firmly and with greater confidence, when it was at sixteen thousand, which was dead on accurate.

The current dip is sixty thousand or so. I may have called it a little too late, bitcoin was recently at fifty eight thousand, and is now at sixty two thousand, though I think it likely to briefly fall below fifty six thousand, in which case I will have again called the dip slightly too soon — but also likely to never see sixty two thousand again, in which case I will have called the dip slightly late. If you buy now, you might regret it, but you will not regret it for very long.

From dip to dip that is dollars falling by a factor of nearly four relative to bitcoin

From the 2017 peak to the 2021 peak, about the same.

The next peak will likely be some time in 2025, though my crystal ball is looking somewhat cloudy. If Trump takes action to restore the usefulness of the dollar as an international currency, could be rather slower. Bitcoin is still in its infancy, with software that makes actually useful still in a horrifyingly crude state, but being worked on. Likely four fold again.

State of the Ukraine war

October 12th, 2024

About eight months ago I said that the Ukraine was starting to crumble, and the war would likely end in summer.

Well, summer is over, and the Ukraine still stands, but is now crumbling a whole lot faster. Hat tip Defense Politics Asia:

Russia is still fighting a war of attrition, and will probably continue to do so, for whenever they try war of manoeuvre, get hammered. But war of attrition is spontaneously turning into of war of manoeuvre.

The Russians attack over a broad front. On some parts of the front they successfully advance. On some parts the Ukrainians hold their ground. Where Ukrainians hold their ground, they are apt to find themselves cut off, because to their right and their left, Russians have advanced. Conversely, advancing Russians can get cut off. Often both happen simultaneously, which commentators like Defense Politics Asia tend to interpret from their armchairs has clever planning by Russians and clever counter planning by the Ukrainians, but looks to me more like fog of war and chaos of war, ignorant armies clashing in darkness. So far, war of maneuver looks less like a plan than just what happens.

Because the Ukrainians are collapsing in a disorderly way, the Russians are apt to advance in a disorderly way, which leads to high Russian casualties — though obviously vastly higher Ukrainian casualties. Overall, Russian casualties have much diminished due to the massive decline in Ukrainian capability, but advancing remains a dangerous business.

Now it used to be that no one ever got cut off, because days would go by in gaining a single ditch, a single tree, and a single building. Everyone knew exactly where the enemy was. Now Ukrainian brigades just keep vanishing. They are sent to defend some spot, and never heard from again, and no knows what happened. All dead? Some dead some captured? Discovered they could not get to where they were being sent under penalty of death if they did not go, and all ran away instead?

Because of the chaos of war, Ukrainian casualties and disappeared are rapidly and massively increasing. Thus, for example, the Ukrainians did not successfully retreat from Ugledar, a fortress city that was key fortress holding the front line, equal in importance to the fortress city and officially unofficial Nato base Avdeevka. That they have lost both strong points anchoring their front line is a problem. That they have lost the men holding the Vugledar section of the front line is a considerably bigger problem.

We are hearing contradictory information that the Ukrainians are abandoning their Kursk adventure, and that they hastily rounding up new forces to hurl into Kursk. I suspect that both things are true simultaneously.

Attrition has greatly diminished the Ukrainian capability to fight, and thus attrition is now happening a whole lot faster.

This is likely to end in an Afghan style debacle. Lots of people are talking peace plans, but our rulers are too many and too incohesive. The Russians have no one to negotiate with. Trump promises to end the war in a day, but the Ukraine will probably have collapsed before his inauguration, and if it is still around, he might well find himself in an Emperor Hirohito situation.

Emperor Hirohito claimed that as emperor he had inherent right to make peace without the consensus of Cabinet, which he indisputably did. Some of the government disagreed. Strongly. Lots of bullet holes in the imperial palace ensued, and he had kill quite a few high ranking Japanese before his inherent right to act in matters of war and peace without cabinet consensus was accepted.

But obviously he inherently had that right. That is the fundamental reason for having a sovereign. If you don’t have a sovereign, or your sovereign is unable to make peace and enforce that deal on his own people, then you will have war, and likely an ill chosen war, or a war that was never consciously, intentionally, and rationally chosen. And if you go into an ill chosen war, and you are unable to make peace, very bad things will ensue.

World War I was such a war. Serbia was making both war and peace on Austria. Austria demanded that Serbia remake itself into a state capable of choosing between war and peace. It refused, objecting that this was a gross violation of its sovereignty, which surely would have been if they had had a real sovereign. Limited war ensued, or was about to ensue. The German army, without the consent of the Kaiser, invaded France through neutral Belgium. Total war, the first world war, the greatest war in History, ensued. Serbia started the war though lack of cohesion, and Germany vastly expanded the war through lack of cohesion.

World war two, on the other hand, was a war of choice. Hitler rationally and reasonably wanted German reunification, and thought he could get it. The allies rationally did not want German reunification, and thought they could stop him. So they went at it. Which in retrospect looks like a terrible mistake by both sides. A war is always a terrible mistake by at least one side. And because the Global American Empire has approximately a Dunbar number of despots ruling it, and these despots know neither the enemy nor themselves, the Global American Empire is apt to make terrible mistakes.

Relief Fund for Hurricane Helene Victims

October 5th, 2024

This an ad for a worthy cause.

https://www.givesendgo.com/GDEF6

This relief fund is being organised by Carson Ford Brooks, who, unlike most people involved in Hurricane Helene relief solicitations has no history of grifting, so when he says

“We are internally fundraising for our own travel, lodging, and food expenses. We are bringing our own equipment. Absolutely ALL of the funds received will go directly toward supplies for the victims and fuel to operate equipment.”

It is probably true.

Fema has pissed away all its money on illegal immigrants, which is probably a good thing because its previous responses to disasters have been hostile to the victims of disaster, and even more hostile to anyone who was prepared for disaster, or providing more useful assistance than Fema. Their primary objective appears to be to move people from areas that vote Republican, to areas that vote Democrat by overwhelming margins, and to reduce everyone to dependency upon the government. In the floods of Hurricane Helene, seem to be more interested in land seizures than providing food and clean drinking water.

Fema is however vitally concerned that faith based shelters might misgender transwomen.

Communist Lesbian Space Witches

September 26th, 2024

Video and game producers have been going woke and going broke.

Step one: Purchase a deeply loved Intellectual Property with a huge die hard loyal fan base.

Step two: Update it for “modern audiences” — which is to say, stick a chick in it and make it gay.

Step three: Prior to release, tell the die hard loyal fan base they are vile hateful scum who should go away and die, and you hate the intellectual property also.

Step four: No one watches the show or plays the game, because the “modern audience” loves the product so much that they forget to play it or watch it.

Step five: Blame the fans for steps one to four.

“Suicide Squad killed the justice league” is a transsexual spitting on the Justice League IP and Batman.

And finally they have reluctantly noticed. The failure of Buzz Lightyear was blamed by executives on the gay kiss (how terribly homophobic of them🙃).

That they are allowed to notice is Thermidor in video and games.  That they are allowed to notice foreshadows Trump being allowed to be elected.

The share market crashed Ubisoft’s shares because of the poor sales of Star Wars Outlaws and the angry fan reaction to it.

Critical Drinker and Nerdrotic are allowed on Youtube. Titans of Youtube versus Disney. And now they are winning, and Disney is capitulating.

Critical Drinker and Nerdrotic are 2016 leftism, Trump is 1980s leftism, Putin 1990s leftism, Musk is too smart to be easily pigeon holed. “Despot of Antrim” is a neoreactionary, who somehow gets away with it despite being on Youtube, probably because he is a star wars obsessed nerd who goes on for hours and hours, so that our enemies do not take him seriously.

Fox is the outer wing of uniparty, and in this sense is current year leftism. Nerdrotic outflanks Fox on the right, by not being uniparty. He got left behind by current year leftism when they came out to abolish whiteness. Abolishing whiteness is like “liquidating the Kulaks as a class”. Liquidating kulaks as a class turned out to be liquidating kulaks, what else could it be? And abolishing whiteness will turn out to be abolishing whites, what else could it be?

Nerdrotic on rumble is considerably more political and further to the right than Nerdrotic on Youtube, but still weak sauce. Civil war is polarizing. In the end the choice is likely to be demon worshipping leftists trying to abolish whites, and 1160sThrone and Altar reactionaries unemancipating women, and everyone is going to have to choose one side or the other, but at the moment the strong hand seems to be Thermidor, who don’t much like abolishing whiteness, let alone whites, but want to roll back leftism to somewhere between 2020 and 1980. But Thermidor, being an attempt to roll back leftism a few years, but not too many years, is inevitably fragile and unstable, apt to be torn apart when the decision of just how many years comes up for grabs.

For a long time the video and game producing left has ignored their moderate critics as a tiny shrill minority of hateful misogynic racists. With show after show going down the sink, the investors are telling them to listen. It is entertainment industry’s branch of Thermidor.

The Acolyte is “The Phantom Menace”, which was already poisonously politically correct, updated for “the modern audience”. However, though they updated the events and actors for “the modern audience”, they left out the plot, story, world building, character, motivation, and character development” for heavy handed political tableaus. The tableaus exist for no particular reason other than to stuff some political point down the throats of the audience (example:strong woman leader), They are not rooted in a larger universe, not a natural outcome of the larger world in which they exist — there is no larger world in which they exist, nor are they caused by character motives. The characters are dragged from one tableau to the next for no particular reason. The main character keeps getting knocked out and literally dragged unconscious to the next tableau. The characters have no character development because they have no character nor motivations.  For example strong woman leader Mother Aniseya does not have a backstory, she has a political lecture.

As the representation went up, the game content went down. Outlaws was just Assassins Creed minus most of the gameplay and story plus diversity, equity and inclusion.  The protagonist is a sex changed Hans Solo. Strong ugly girl boss of color protagonist, intended as a female Hans Solo. They motion captured a startlingly beautiful actress with a lovely face and oh wow body shape — and then changed her into an unattractive intersexual mutant. Because male gaze evil. The main character looks like she was made in a lab by a group of feminists who refuse to tell you what a woman is.

Hans Solo was a lovable scoundrel, a very likeable character. Maam Solo is just a scoundrel, in addition to be an ugly androgynous mutant.

The development team behind Star Wars Outlaws have regularly put out hateful abuse against white males. And they will not allow any female character who is not a lot uglier than themselves (chicks instinctively hate competition).  When a video game motion captures a handsome male model, the in game character looks exactly like the model, or a very recognisable cartoon version. When they motion capture a hot female model, the in game character is unrecognisably ugly, androgynous, and sexually intermediate

And suddenly there has been a big change.  The protagonist of Outside In 2 was going to turn gay, and the executives objected, perhaps recalling Buzz Lightyear.  There was a big struggle over this issue, and sanity won.

Activists are being purged across the entertainment industry.  Deadpool and Wolverine came out with white male heroes being allowed to be heroes.  The Penguin with white male antiheroes, and no attempt was made to spit in the fans faces and ram politics down their throats.

But still no one dares realistically depict romance between men and women. no one is admitting what needs to be done, the most “reactionary”, “racist”, ‘anti woke” you tubers are incapable of saying what is forbidden to say. Thus I watch a Youtube channel titled “DEI makes video games DIE”, and they adopt a centrist position somewhere in the middle between the demonic radical leftism that they are condemning, and the maniacal self destructive leftism that they call “extreme right”

Concord, a four hundred million dollar game, whose primary play goal was to promote body positivity for androgynous morbidly obese women, was abandoned two weeks after release, The Acolyte, described by its supporters as “Lesbian Witches in Space”, “Gayest Star Wars ever”, “”Queer with a capital Q”, was not renewed.  Star Wars Outlaws, described by its critics as “Mam Solo” is going to be radically rewritten, and the release of Assassins Creed Shadows is being held back to be rewritten due to the hostile reaction to Star Wars Outlaws.

But still no one can depict men and women acting heterosexually towards each other.  The last show to dare to do that was “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom”, twenty forty years ago, and it is still catching flack for that.  That is far too radical for Nerdrotic and Critical Drinker to think such thoughts.

Women killed “The Acolyte”.  Well of course women killed it. If you let women in male sphere activity, they will break stuff and $#!% over everything in an effort to smoke the alpha out of hiding so that he will give them a richly deserved spanking and chain them to his bedroom, kitchen, and nursery, this being the ancestral environment of successful reproduction for women, and male sphere activities not the environment of successful reproduction.

The completely malicious, destructive, and hostile behaviour of the writers, directors, and cast of the Acolyte to the Star Wars intellectual property and the Star Wars fans is completely intelligible when viewed through the lens of evolutionary game theory.

And as for the faggots, well, it is the nature of faggots that they just cannot help rubbing their sexuality in everyone’s face. But mostly, women killed it. If it was primarily faggots killing it, the acting would have been less wooden, and the story line would have tried to make sense. The writers of The Acolyte and Star Wars Outlaws were deliberately malicious and destructive, consciously seeking to drive the fans away.  Similarly, Snow White. (Now Snow Brown).  Faggots love to rub their sexual preference in everyone’s face, but I don’t thin that was the primary motivation in the attempted ruining of Inside Out 2.  I think they just wanted to piss on the fans.

Women are wonderful at being women. They are very bad at being men. Since the cast, director, writers, and all that were primarily childless women, naturally they behaved in a manner that in the ancestral environment would soon result in them ceasing to be childless, but in our environment is not working any more, because the alpha cannot get away with the spanking and the chaining.  It is inherent in the nature of women that if you give single childless women power roles in a male sphere activity, they will ruin everything.

War internal and/or external, and/or democide internal

September 17th, 2024

For a very long time I have been predicting war internal and/or external, and/or democide internal for around 2025. Twelve years ago I updated this prediction to sometime around 2026. As yet I see no reason to further modify that prediction, though I have a track record for making predictions on Musk time.  We are now a whole lot closer to war external, the imminent fall of Ukraine is likely to result in further escalation and more direct Nato involvement, and there are indications that war internal or democide looms, notably the mass importation of hostile young military age men.

There are two related factors underlying this prediction. The one that I re-iterate the most is that since 1800 or so, anglosphere leftism has been getting ever lefter ever faster. Whenever this happens, and we have been around this merry go round many times, it would culminate in infinite leftism in finite time, as for example in Sichuan province, were it not interrupted by terrible violence as it usually is. Infinite leftism in finite time is everyone kills everyone else for insufficient leftism. Finite leftism is terminated by dictator grabbing absolute power and eliminating those to his right and to his left. Leftism must get ever lefter ever faster, or die as, a shark must swim or drown, so if a rightist dictator grabs power, leftism dies quickly, if a leftist dictator grabs power, it dies slowly, but it still dies.

The other is that a Republic depends on an elite sufficiently virtuous for honest elections. Right now election rigging is so extensive in the west that a peaceful transfer of power is impossible. If peaceful transfer of power is impossible and yet transfer of power happens it is necessary for the winner to eliminate all enemies, suspected enemies, potential enemies, and suspected potential enemies, or else he is unlikely to survive — Julius Caesar’s big mistake.

The Roman Republic leading to Sulla was leftism getting every lefter, the Roman Republic leading to Caesar Augustus was election rigging. Today we have both simultaneously.

Right now, state power is dispersed in numerous difficult to identify hands — the Swamp. If the power to make war and peace is dispersed in too many hands, war is inevitable and unavoidable. So sooner or later, one way or another way, the power to make war and peace will find its way back into a single hand — possibly after the nukes fly. I pray that transfer of power happens before the nukes fly.

Election rigging:

The Butler PA sniper was an obvious FBI asset acting on behalf of the FBI with cover provided by the former head of the secret service — we can be sure of this because of interesting movements of the sniper’s phone, and because of the ensuing cover up. We don’t know that the golf course sniper was acting on behalf of the CIA and state department, but we do know that he is an operative of the CIA and State Department, who was echoing and quoting Kamala Harris’s war rhetoric and political eliminationist rhetoric. For Trump to rule, he is going to have eliminate all these people, or be eliminated as Caesar was. A gun beats five aces. Our enemies played five aces in the 2020 and 2022 elections, and now they are playing guns. The stakes get higher every day. They have been getting higher for two centuries, but now they are getting higher faster.

The lesson of the Roman Republic is that once someone starts cheating on the mechanisms for peaceful transition of power, then there is no alternative to violent transition of power. Normiecon bias is that we can live with just a little bit of cheating. No we cannot.

It rapidly became obvious that enormous numbers of Romans were going to be killed by Romans, and everyone was were trying to avoid that outcome by returning to the old normal. There were endless agreements to return to the old normal, which predictably came to nothing. Everyone wanted the old normal back, as the horrifying alternative drew in sight, but they could not get from where they were to where they wanted to be.

Trump cannot win, no one can win, unless he kills a whole lot of people, and, after killing a whole lot of people, establishes a new mechanism for peaceful transfer of power. But hard to establish a mechanism for peaceful transfer of power if you lack a virtuous elite.

Leftism must get ever lefter, ever faster, as shark must swim or drown

Leftism starts with envy and covetousness. Covetousness is that someone wants to knock over the apple cart to grab some apples. Envy is he just want to knock over the apple cart because he does not have one.

And, given that there are people who want to knock over the applecart, easier and safer to knock it over as part of a gang. So, priests: Someone comes up with a clever rationalisation why knocking over the applecart is wise, virtuous, and beneficial. Then, from priests, to a priesthood. Leftism gives rise to the left as an organised entity with a hierarchy and an official, though frequently changing, belief system.

As each applecart gets taken down, people become excited for new applecarts, and the supposed ideals of leftism abruptly change to something new.  Before World War One, the big exciting applecart was Empire, Emperors, and aristocrats, as for example the Austro Hungarian Empire and the British Empire, so nationalism was leftist, and leftists were generally nationalists.  After World War II, nationalism was generally rightist.  From 1890 to 1980, capitalists and capitalism were the big apple cart.  These days, the left is content with corporations continuing to exist, they just want them run by the leftist priesthood.  The universities are overproducing dimwitted would be members of the elite, and they want the state to helicopter them into top jobs, and manufacture new top jobs in global warming, Covidianity, diversity, equity, and inclusion.  Plus of, course, the faggot left is after other people’s children.  And the usual crowd want to resume the 1990s looting and pillaging of Russia, and then get on with looting and pillaging China and Iran.

The only cure is that the proprietors of apple carts subscribe to state religion that takes a firm hand with heretics and apostates.

Leftism is the priestly equivalent of mobile banditry. A leftist priesthood is to a priesthood what a robber baron is to a baron. Mobile banditry is, under some circumstances, a perfectly sound strategy, though under most common circumstances a very wicked strategy, but when the sovereign is falling down on his job, a necessary and justified one.

Leftism tends to arise when the existing official priesthood is weak, cynical, and decadent. And to successfully put leftism down, you need an official priesthood that is strong, sincere, and virtuous.

We have been around this merrygoround many, many times. This is one more time. It will end the same way as all the others.

We saw something strikingly resembling various very recent incarnations of leftism in the eleventh century caliphate, Barebone’s Parliament in England, the Church of Reason in France, the Nicolaitians, the Donatists and the Cathars rapidly transitioning into polyamorous communists, and many others.

It is not driven by technology. It is certainly not driven by capitalism. (Watch Disney burning the IP they spent wads of money on, watch Boeing abandoning its plane and rocket business for diversity, equity, and inclusion.) It is driven by holiness spirals in the priesthood (the modern priesthood being lawyers, judges, academics, and “journalists”.)

Twenty first century western leftism comes out of Harvard. Before the War of Northern Aggression, each of the American states had its own state religion, and the Vatican of New England was Harvard. After the War of Northern Aggression, the United States had one state religion, and its Vatican is still Harvard.

A state is too big to be a tribe, so it needs an elite tribe within the state. But that elite is itself too large to be a natural tribe, so has to be a synthetic tribe – a tribe built on a faith, such as communism, the God that failed. Or the Church of England, as in England from 1660 to 1820.

Every state has a state religion, and no one is allowed into the state or quasi state elite unless they adhere to the state religion. States die when their state religion dies of disbelief, or commits suicide by holiness spiralling. Or both. We are seeing both happen simultaneously now. The ruling tribe becomes incohesive. Covidianity, sodomy, and sexual transition lacks appeal, and people are getting quietly sick of female emancipation, which in practice amounts to men not getting sex, and women not getting husbands and children.

Ukraine still crumbling

September 14th, 2024

Five months ago I said “Ukraine begins to crumble” and said it has about six months or so of men and material left, but cautiously qualified that incautious prediction by adding that I am endlessly surprised by the Ukraine’s ability to scrape up more men and material.

Well, it is now crumbling considerably faster, but does not look like it is going to fall in a month.

Russia has been fighting a war of attrition, while the Ukraine has been attempting to fight a war of maneuver. In a war of maneuver, the side with the greatest willingness to sacrifice men and material has a substantial advantage. In a war of attrition, not so much.

All things being equal, in a war of attrition, one’s casualties are roughly inverse to ones numbers. If one has half as many men, one has twice as many casualties. If the enemy has twice as much men and material, one has twice the casualties. So as a war of attrition draws to a close, the losing sides casualties mount faster and faster, and the winning side’s casualties mount slower and slower. The Ukraine is now suffering casualties about twice as fast as it was five months ago, Russia about half as fast.

So the Ukraine is probably going to last longer than a month. But not a whole lot of months.

In Kursk, the Ukraine had a big success, in that it was able to attain war of maneuver, grabbing a whole lot of land without having to shell every farmhouse, ever ditch, and every grove of trees, without men dying for every ruin, every ditch, and every tree. But war of maneuver does you no good, unless you can grab what the enemy cannot afford to lose. The Ukrainian Kursk offensive resembles the German spring offensives of 1918. Realising they were losing the war of attrition, the Germans attempted to resume war of maneuver. And succeeded. But the maneuvers did not actually reach anywhere that mattered all that much, so that a decisive tactical victory for the Germans was also a decisive strategic defeat for the Germans.

Exactly four months after the end of their 1918 spring offensives, the Germans agreed to hand over their heavy weapons and disband their army. And they agreed to that because they were losing their heavy weapons and their army was disbanding itself. Since the Ukraine is run from Washington and Massachusetts, there will probably be no armistice. Rather, its army is just going to vanish.

The Russian response to the Kursk offensive was to create a defensive line alarmingly close to Kursk, and alarmingly far from the Ukrainian border, effectively conceding a very substantial amount of ground to the Ukrainians, allowing the Ukrainians a big tactical success, but ensuring a strategic Russian victory. The line would have put Kursk and the nuclear power plant potentially within range of Ukrainian artillery, but cities and nuclear power plants can soak up a whole lot of artillery.

The Kursk offensive was a big black eye for the Russians, but Putin did not allow it to distract him from the goal of eliminating Ukrainian military capability.

The there are a number of proposals for Nato escalation, for more direct Nato involvement, which are likely to lead to Russian measures to escalate against Nato — for example by Russians launching Russian missiles against American ships and bases from the territories of Russian proxies. Sweden and Blinken seem to be trying to start World War III, while Poland and the Pentagon are screaming “Stop!”

The Neocons insist that Russia must be defeated and seen to be defeated, in order that Russia can be color revolutioned, but a nuclear power cannot be defeated, merely forced to accept an unsatisfactory stalemate. Attempt to defeat a nuclear power, the nukes will fly. Something like the Minsk accords is a reasonable stalemate outcome, but the problem there is that Washington is not agreement capable, so I doubt that something like the Minsk accords are possible, even if everyone agrees that they are less bad than the alternative. Regardless of the outcome in the Ukraine, the drift toward World War III is likely to continue.

War is easy, peace is hard, in the sense that falling off a cliff is easy, climbing a cliff is hard. Large scale cooperation is difficult.

To accomplish peace, need a leader who can say “peace with the outgroup”, and everyone is at peace with the outgroup, and anyone in the ingroup who is unpeaceful gets sent to the outgroup, possibly in pieces. and who can say “war with the outgroup”, and everyone is at war, or hangs as a traitor.

The west lacks that kind of leadership. If Kamala is installed she will no more be the leader than Biden was. If Trump is allowed to be elected, it will be difficult for him to become the real leader short of sending numerous members of the elite to the Pacific in black helicopters for long distance swimming lessons.

Definition of left and right

September 2nd, 2024

Leftism

starts with envy and covetousness. Covetousness is that someone wants to knock over the apple cart to grab some apples. Envy is he just want to knock over the apple cart because he does not have one.

And, given that there are people who want to knock over the applecart, easier and safer to knock it over as part of a gang. So, priests: Someone comes up with a clever rationalisation why knocking over the applecart is wise, virtuous, and beneficial. Then, from priests, to a priesthood: Leftism gives rise to the left as an organised entity with a hierarchy and an official, though frequently changing, belief system.

What defines the belief system is not the beliefs, which are ever changing, (socialism, redistribution, global warming, sexism, Covidianity, diversity, inclusion, whatever) but that regardless of the what the beliefs supposedly consist of, someone else’s applecart is in the sights.

Leftism is the belief system that supplies rationales for knocking over whichever applecart is currently in the sights of the covetous and envious, it is the priests of that belief system, and

the left

is the priesthood of that belief system.

That the brownshirts were leftists is obvious. Hitler was considerably less left. But what made him still a leftist was National Socialism, and socialism manifested, as always, in shortages.

Price control plus money printing, resulted in food shortages in Germany almost immediately. He then attempted to transfer food from outgroups to ingroups by the command economy. Which meant not only not feeding the Jews but also not feeding the Greeks (who were national socialists) and not feeding the Dutch, who were a remarkable food production powerhouse, not to mention more Aryan than Germans. Which of course shut down food production in Greece, France, and the rest.

Socialism, command economy –> food shortage. So the party winds up making decisions to let people starve. Including the Dutch, who were more Aryan than the Germans and had very impressive food production.

Hitler’s problem, like that of King Louis the sixteenth, and like that of Napoleon, was food. The moral of all these stories and many others is that the state should not mess with the market in food production and distribution, and that if that market is failing, it needs to look after the property rights and personal safety of producers and distributors.  The food desert problem in the big blue megalopoli could easily be fixed by shooting a few shoplifters.  Public hangings followed by quartering the corpses and leaving the pieces of the bodies outside the shopping centers would also help.

If leftism’s ever changing beliefs are impossible to pin down,

rightism

has no beliefs. Rightism should be the party of order, or at least the party of existing order, but it is the party of applecart owners and people with an emotional attachment to Chesterton’s fence. Its existence is provoked by the party of the left.  As a result, conservatives conserve yesterday’s leftism.  The party of the left is a priesthood.  The party of the right is not a priesthood, nor does it have a priesthood in its pocket.  It does not actually have any beliefs to believe in, so it tends to wind up in the pocket of the priesthood of the left, which tends to give rise to the dynamics of the uniparty with an inner party wing, the official party of the left that is always in power even when the outer party happens to have a merely elected majority, and an outer party wing, which is always out of power because even when it is a majority of the merely elected government, it is a small and unpopular minority within the permanent and unelected government, and even if it was not, it would still lack intellectual sovereignty, worshipping at the shrines of the enemy priesthood. The uniparty is in substantial part the result of centralised conspiracy run from Harvard with tentacles in every satrapy of the global American empire, but that conspiracy is working with the natural and spontaneous grain of politics.

Nazis are commies

August 30th, 2024

And commies are Nazis, near as makes no difference to anyone who is not a Nazi or a commie

This is evident today in the seeming odd alignment of Ukrainian Nazis and State Department Jews, but was obvious enough to Papen in his Marburg speech.

Every time, always, everywhere, leftism gets ever lefter, ever more lethal, ever faster, until it is stopped by large scale deadly violence originating from a top leader, as for example Sulla, or until it destroys everything and everyone.

Hillary and Clinton bumped off no end of people, and Obama has bumped off at least one, probably more. The FBI plus DEI elements in the secret service had a go at bumping off Trump, though it is unclear who was behind it at the top. The Senate inquiry displays a curious lack of interest in subpoenaing cell phones. It begins.

No exceptions. Wiemar is not an exception. Hitler was lefter than thou, until he was not. The rise of the Sparts and the Nazis was continuing movement leftwards, just as Kamala, antifa, and BLM is continuing movement leftwards.

Papen in his Marburg speech complains of Nazi radical leftism, hints that the generals should stop it by deadly force, and appeals to Hitler to stop it by deadly force. The Brownshirts complain that Hitler is insufficiently left, boast that they are lefter than thou, and hint at doing something about it. Hitler does something about it instead.  Night of the long knives.

Hitler was movement right in the same way as Deng, Stalin, Napoleon, Cromwell, and all the others were movement right.

Same pattern as all of the others, Sulla being the archetype.

 

State of the war

July 29th, 2024

Wars happen because some people expect one outcome, and others expect a different outcome. So prediction is hard, for if it was easy, the war would likely have been avoided, though as the war goes on, and on, and on, becomes easier.

Due to fog of war, hard to know what is happening now, or has happened recently, But after a while, it becomes obvious what did happen, which gives some indication of what will happen.

It has long been obvious that the west is run by demon worshippers, and with the opening of the Paris Olympics a couple of days ago, this should now be obvious to everyone. Demon worshippers want you dead. Well, they want everyone and everything dead, including themselves, but you first. The tactics and strategy of this war becomes a lot more intelligible if one understands that one side is commanded by people who believe themselves to be serving demons, or perhaps actually are serving demons.

The war started off with war of movement, as did World War I, but, as in World War I, both sides quickly became very good at shutting down the other side’s movement, and, since then, like World War One, it has been war of attrition.

The rationale for the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive was to regain war of movement. Nato wonder weapons, Nato training, and all that. Of course Nato has not fought a peer war since World War Two, so have no idea.

Plus, Nato is completely structured about keeping commissioned officers nice and safe in nice safe bases, where they send grunts and non commissioned officers out to die.

I have long said that if you have one man in your army that does not fight, pretty soon you will have no men in your army that fight. Nato organisation is all about having no commissioned officers that fight. The left does not like warrior armies. Finds that it needs warrior armies, but has concluded it does not need a warrior officer corps.

This is partly the managerial state, the triumph of unaccountable bureaucracy over people who do actual things, and partly the leftist state. The left is priestly, and priests and warriors always conflict. So now we have a full priestly officer corps, which is a protection for the left against coups, but not a protection against insurrection, invasion, or conquest.

Ukraine, however, inherited from the Soviet Union a warrior army, plus the forces that made the Maidan coup were the Nazis, and a core part of their ideology is to have a warrior army and rule by warrior-priests. Nato looked down their noses at this insufficiently holy and progressive organisation, and has been re-organising them.

The plan for the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive was to probe all along the front for weak points, then charge through at the weakest point, cutting off Russian forces to the west, thus regaining a vast swathe of territory to the west, without having to fight for every ditch, every tree, and every house.

The weakest point turned out to be the low ground between Russian controlled high ground. Ukrainian progress through the buffer zone in front of the Russian defence lines was very slow, and very costly, and when they finally reached the first line of defence, and occupied it, they had to bring troops and materials to it through a long and winding gauntlet along the low ground between Russian strong places on the high ground on either side. They got to the first line of defence, but were never able to get beyond it, for whenever they stuck their heads above the fortifications that they had managed to seize, their heads got blown off. The Russians had prepared their first line of defence to be indefensible against attacks coming from their second line of defence. The “weakest point” was a killing field, and the first line of defence was a death trap.

The Ukrainians lost an army, except for their retreat blocking brigades, and had to conscript a new army.

The interesting and extraordinary thing was the West’s stubborn persistence in a strategy that had turned out to be horrifically bad and entirely disastrous. Why did they just keep pumping more and more men into killing fields and death traps?

Partly it was the managerial state. The mid level managers are focused on on next week’s power point presentation, and demand that the low level managers supply them with with good bullet points for that presentation. The high level managers look at the good bullet points, and all is well, so issue orders to keep doing what you are doing, so the system as a whole tends to mindlessly pursue a short term, high time preference strategy, while generating meaningless numbers showing highly successful pursuit of a long term, low time preference strategy. The Russians on the other hand, tended to focus on winning the war, hence actually did pursue a long term, low time preference strategy, where they sought to conserve their resources for the final battles, brave men being the most important resource of all.

Partly it was demon worship. Those organising this war want Russians to die, but also want Ukrainians to die. The people who organised the Maidan coup are Jews with family reasons for wanting Ukrainians dead and the Ukraine destroyed.

The managerial state reinforces leftism, because being in contact with reality is a bad career move, and leftism reinforces the managerial state, because leftists do not like people telling them that reality is real, and both of them reinforce demon worship, because demon worshippers are fine with actual reality going to $#!&. All three depend on lies, each of them provides a different reason for lying, but a lie promulgated for one reason finds support from the other two reasons. The bureaucrat wants the right bullet points regardless of whether the bullet points meaningfully represent reality, the leftist does not believe that existence exists, that reality is real, and the demon worshipper just likes lies and lying. The confident inversion of truth is the demonic equivalent of prayer.

The Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive eventually petered out, due to lack of men, and lack of weapons. Nato is out of ammo. Nato troops have been disarmed.

In order to continue attriting the Ukrainians, the Russians were forced to go on the offensive. Since the objective is attrit the enemy, rather than gain turf, there are no big arrow offensives. Every ditch, every tree, every ruin, is gained at enormous cost to both sides.

It looks to me that when well trained, well equipped, highly motivated, battle hardened, experienced, Russian troops attempt to take a village from well trained, well equipped, highly motivated, battle hardened, experienced, Ukrainian troops, they suffer very high casualties and frequently fail.

Fortunately for the Russians, most of the well trained, well equipped, highly motivated, battle hardened, experienced, Ukrainian troops died in the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive.

Increasingly the battles consist of experienced and highly motivated Russian vets versus barely trained reluctant Ukrainian fresh meat. The death rate among inexperienced Ukrainian troops is vastly higher than the death rate among Ukrainian vets. The number of Ukrainian vets continues to shrink. Fresh Ukrainian conscripts do not seem to be becoming vets, but corpses — in part due to a commissioned officer corps that is grossly out of contact with reality. If you want your fresh meat to survive to become vets, you need to issue retreat orders in time.

The Ukrainians have a troop rotation policy that should in theory result in fresh meat becoming battle hardened veterans, but this does not seem to be actually happening in practice all that much.

In part the bubble of delusion around the Ukrainian commissioned officer corps is a result of the managerial state, the triumph of unaccountable bureaucracy over functionality, the Natoization of the Ukrainian military. In part it is the result of leftism, for leftism inherently tends to solipsism. And in part, demon worshippers just like human sacrifice.

A few weeks ago I reported that the Russians were taking one or two villages every one or two days. Now it is one to four villages every day. Because the Ukrainians are out of everything, and most of all, by far, they are out of men.

This is reminiscent of the hundred days phase of World War One.

At the current rate of advance, it will be a very long time before the front line changes significantly, but the exact position of the front line does not matter. What matters is how much army and government the Ukraine has left. And the accelerating rate of Russian advance reveals that the Ukraine has considerably less, and that what it does have is shrinking every faster.

So the questions are:

1. Will the Ukraine make the concessions the Russians are asking for?

Probably not, because everyone in the Ukraine dying cannot possibly happen for the managerial elite, cannot happen and is unimportant for the left, and is a positively delightful outcome for the demon worshippers.

2. If they don’t make the concessions, when does the Ukrainian muppet government disappear?

Never, because the muppet government is located in Washington and Cambridge.

3. OK, when does the muppet government lose the ability to hold photo ops in the Ukraine?

And that is what is hard to know. Could be tomorrow, could be years. The sooner it happens, the more Ukrainians there will be left in the Ukraine. I hope for November, by analogy to the hundred days that led to the end of World War One.