Art of War in 2022

June 2nd, 2022

War matters, so promoting this conversation to a post.

Mister Grumpus asks:

> The narrative is shifting to the Russians managing to muddle through anyway, and the blue-and-yellow Ukraine flags have all but vanished from Twitter.

Ukraine has been attempting World War I tactics, which worked great for a little while, but they are starting to run out of troops willing to fight. Currently it is World War I, which is a horrifyingly costly and destructive way of waging war, and the cost is biting both sides hard, but seems to be costing the Ukrainians worse.

The problem with World War I tactics is that they rely on the fact that frightened troops do not flee artillery bombardment, they dig in. Which prevents attempts to advance no matter how much artillery the enemy applies. But when you try to move those terrified troops from the location where they were being bombarded, to a new location, they are apt to dig in their heels once they have been removed from the old location on the front, where the enemy has become become tired of attacking, and are ordered to go to a new location on the front, where the enemy is, despite the great cost of World War I tactics, advancing. So the Russians are having success by endlessly, unpredictably, and unexpectedly, switching from one segment of the front to another. The Ukrainians are trying to reuse troops, which neither side was very successful in doing during World War I. World War I tactics use up, consume, and exhaust your army.

We are now seeing very large numbers of mutinies by Ukrainian grunts. We are also seeing a deep reluctance of officers to go to the front.

> Has Has the steady grind of Russian artillery fire and Ukrainian logistical disappointment undermined their Info Epoch Warfare? Pulled the plug on it somehow?

> What I no longer see is video of tanks driving around. That must still be way too dangerous with all those man-portable missiles out there.

> Maybe Info Epoch Warfare is still the winning ticket, unless your opponent (Russia) is happy to just shoot many thousand artillery shells and advance X yards per day, and can safely resupply themselves via a fully protected highway.

The Russian computer network penetration effort has failed. Their state level hackers just don’t seem very good at it. Compare and contrast network immensely successful penetration by American Military intelligence.

Last time the I knew anything about what state level actors were doing, the US had massive penetration of everyone’s computer network, and the Chinese were starting, barely starting, to have some success in excluding them. The Chinese were not even trying to penetrate other people’s networks, though maybe they are now. I see no sign of it. They demand companies insert of obvious spyware in their networks, which is quite useless because if you know where the spyware is, you feed it bullshit and bypass it for what really matters. Russian state networks were, and recently still were, wide open. If you cannot defend your computer networks, you probably cannot attack other people’s networks, because you cannot identify vulnerabilities. Russian response to identified vulnerabilities has been foolish and self destructive, covering them up rather than addressing them. One should pay the hacker if he shows you how he did it and helps you to do it to other people, and prevent other people from doing it to oneself, attempt to find him and harm him if he does not.

Russia has been vigorously attempting human penetration of Ukraine human networks, with surprisingly disappointing success. I am now coming to the conclusion that to do human penetration, you need a shared faith.

Stalin had a live state religion, so had immense success in penetrating human networks. Russia is making an effort to revive its state religion, but in the Ukraine, nonetheless has had poor success. Failed to properly utilize Old type Christians, who are being vigorously and murderously persecuted in the Ukraine. The Jesuits had and have immense success in penetrating human networks, though their inner religion now appears to be serpent Christ. The Alawites also had immense success, with an outer religion of Mohammedanism, a middle religion that has syncretic layers of Christianity, Zoroastrianism, and at its center, the inner religion, the innermost religion, a mysterious faith whose nature is alleged to be pagan, but who knows? Only them and God. The Alawites have been doing this for a very very long time, since at least anno Domini 1100, and the touch of Zoroastrianism hints that they may be descended from a faith immensely older. They have good human penetration and immensely good human security.

Looking at efforts at human penetration, look faith based. And because human penetration requires lying, demonic faiths have an advantage in penetration, though they have a disadvantage in preventing penetration. I don’t see any obvious demonic symptoms with the Alawites, but given their very good human security, I would not. Maybe their inner religion has good distinction between lies that can be told and lived without moral compromise, and lies that cannot. Or maybe it does not. Hard to know.

During two millennia of attempted, and sometimes successful, hostile entryism against Christian state religions, entryist groups concocted ever more elaborate systems of ideas and rationalizations so that they could say the right things, in a sense truthfully, but with the deliberately wrong meanings. Which seems odd. Why not just plain lie? Why do creeds and shill tests work? Why have they gone on working for millenia?

Just lying works for the individual, but for the group, not so much, because your agents are apt to become double and triple agents. The best liar believes what he says, so you need a lie that is fundamentally incompatible with the enemy faith, but whose fundamental incompatibility is subtle.

Information Epoch warfare worked great for Trump. It has not been working for Russians, but they are trying. Maybe they will get better. War is a stern teacher.

> Maybe the Bayraktar drones really can find and disable artillery pieces all day long, but Uncle Sam refuses to buy more because Turkish Man Bad. Heck if I know.

Drones are costing the Russians a lot, costing both sides but mostly it is not autonomous drones, but simply dumb drones in line of sight of their controllers, and for moderate range often directly above their controller at altitude (the Ukrainians claim to have a very substantial advantage in distance drone vision) looking down on artillery battles from above. The huge advantage of autonomous drones is that they extend the battlefield all the way, which advantage no one except Turkey has utilized. In the Information Epoch, the battlefield will soon be everywhere. In the Armenian war, the Azerbaijanis gained a huge advantage by extending the battle field all the way throughout the entire disputed territory. Well, time to dispute the enemy capital. Which the Russians have been trying to do, without a lot of success.

Both sides have autonomous long range drones, though I heard some whining from the Ukrainians that they are mighty hard to use autonomously. Autonomous drones had immense impact in the recent Armenian war. Maybe in this war both sides are finding them hard to use. Needs better UI, and better mission controllers.

In the Information Epoch, the military needs high IQ warriors. Maybe neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians have them.

Stagflation is here

May 19th, 2022

Walmart reports it is selling less stuff, and is going to have to raise prices further.

If it is selling less stuff, everyone is buying less stuff. Meaning everyone is poorer, living standards are falling

If everyone is buying less stuff, and yet stuff is still in short supply, then production of value is falling. As has been obvious from holding a finger to the wind for some time, but this is a concrete confirmation. Official cpi and gdp statistics have, as I have said before, long been fraudulent and are approaching Soviet levels of mendacity.

I attribute the decline to three main factors

1. Unstable price levels foul up business planning. Your books become meaningless.

2. Unstable price levels disrupt relationships between businesses. Things have to be renegotiated.

3. ESG. Environmental, Social, and Governance. The state is weaponizing your accounting department to impose holiness on you. This accelerates the existing disruption caused by the Human Resources Department and women in the workforce.

Accelerating levels of holiness are characteristic of a left singularity, which usually blows up pretty fast, and then it is over, and your society very likely recovers. Sometimes it does not.

We have long had technological decline in an increasing number of fields. Now we have economic decline. This may pass in time, probably will pass, but long term economic decline is a possibility, in which case we may heading into a dark age. Dark ages set in slowly, and last for a long time. I think this merely the effects of the holiness spiral, and after the holiness spiral self destructs, technological and economic progress will resume. Which one it is, however, will not be apparent for some considerable time. Depends on how the left singularity ends. Deng fixed China, but Xi is returning to the Marxist ideology that Deng theoretically left in place, while ignoring in actual practice.

Russians stupidly and stubbornly persisting with World War II Blitzkreig in the Ukraine

May 16th, 2022

They attempted a blitzkrieg to surround and cut off the “city” of Severodonetsk

A tiny insignificant city about twenty five blocks by fifteen blocks.

The city center consists of a supermarket, a couple of gas stations, a couple of auto repair shops, a car accessory store, a food takeaway shop, a bank, a nail salon, a hotel cafe, a pub, and a remarkably large number of government offices. The town appears to exist to service government employees and people’s cars.

They had a go, lost of bunch of military vehicles. OK, you try these things, sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t.

And then they had another go, same result. And another. And another. And another. All up they lost seventy five military vehicles.

That is not OK. When it does not work, you stop and try to do something different.

This is reminiscent of the early days of World War I, where they repeatedly tried bayonet charges. Each and every bayonet charge was wiped out with enormous casualties. Not one bayonet charge inflicted any damage at all. Not one bayonet reached one enemy. And they just kept on doing it because they just did not know what else to do.

Russia is also finally starting to do some Information Epoch warfare, and getting results. But rather piddling results so far because their network penetration is crap. They have had a few goes at nailing more important people, but as yet, no successful hits.

The first thing Putin needs to do is ask his spy IT organization what computer networks in Russia they are unable to penetrate. And then demote his spy IT people and put the people who created impenetrable networks in charge of state IT, officially in charge of making state computer networks secure, and secretly in charge of penetrating other people’s computer networks. NSA is a long, long, long way, ahead of him, but the NSA have recently made Shaniqua tech lead, and are starting to lose ground fast.

The next thing he needs to do is to do what the Polygon has long been doing. Insert undercover entryists into enemy human social networks. He has a long way to go.

But an entryist organization needs a faith. What faith would that be?

Well, handily, the Ukrainian regime is terrorizing, imprisoning, and murdering, old type Christians. And there are a pile of Ukrainian Christians in Russia and Russian controlled territories that have fled this. So …

In the Information Epoch tanks are irrelevant. Manned warplanes are irrelevant. Artillery is only relevant if your enemy is dumb enough to refight World War II. When Trump defeated ISIS, did he use tanks, artillery, and bombers? Learn how to fight wars in the in the Information Epoch from those who have successfully done so.

Trump destroyed ISIS.

And in Afghanistan?

The US was suffering endless and terrible casualties in Afghanistan. Trump cut a deal with the Taliban whereby US forces continued to control key cities and key roads in Afghanistan, and suffer no further casualties. The Taliban accepted a deal that was a severe defeat, because they figured they could wait Trump out. US casualties completely ended in Afghanistan. Taliban casualties did not end. This does not sound like a very good deal at all. Why did they agree?

Well, during the negotiations:

Taliban negotiator:

Why are you sending me a picture of my house?

Trump:

Think about it.

That is how you fight an Information Epoch war. The side that has the best human network and computer network penetration wins. Battleships, tanks and artillery are one with bayonet charges. Observe that artillery and tanks failed take a couple of thousand surrounded Azov brigade holed up in a bunch of reinforced concrete buildings. Russians now have to starve them out.

The Information Epoch solution for that kind of problem has been tested and demonstrated, though no one has deployed it yet to my knowledge. You send a swarm of pigeon sized drones, with line of sight communications with each other, one end of the swarm out in the open with line of sight communication to base, and the other end swarming through narrow the twisty spaces where your enemy is holed up and destroying your artillery and tanks, and find the exact location of your enemy. Having found them, destroying them becomes trivial. Drone capability to swarm through narrow twist spaces using time based spread spectrum communication has been demonstrated, but as yet not applied. You need a communication technology that gives each drone the exact distance from every drone that it is in communication with, enough drones in line of sight with each other than they can exactly locate each drone with respect to the position of all of the others, and drone ai that can recognize walls, floors, ceilings, and mobile objects. And then you follow them up by destroying the mobile objects.

But killing a whole lot of grunts inherently takes a lot whole lot of time, effort, and money, and grunts are rather easily replaceable. Far better to take out the central vertices of the organization that funds and commands them. And for that, you need, not drone swarms, but human and computer network penetration. Thinking too much about killing grunts is a distraction.

In the Information Epoch, the surviving statelike groups with military capability will be those that not only have good computer and human network penetration, (hackers and entryists) but have good resistance to hacking and entryism (good encryption and an inquisition) and high tolerance of damage to key vertices (capability to swiftly rotate decision making roles while continuing to act cohesively, and brave and loyal men in those decision making roles.) Hordes of grunts will not matter very much, and columns of tanks no longer matter at all. Just as the winning organizations of seventh to seventeenth century relied on brave men in elite positions and were willing and able to take substantial casualties and keep on going, the winning organizations of the Information Epoch will rely on brave men in elite positions and will be willing and able to take substantial casualties and keep on going. Another aristocratic era is coming up.

2000 mules

May 15th, 2022

“2000 mules” is an investigation of the everyday routine ordinary fraud that preceded the 2020 election. It does not look at the extraordinary and hastily executed fraud that was performed in the early hours of the morning, when they hastily shut down the counting places, then reopened them at three AM with truckloads of freshly printed Biden Ballots, that, being centrally printed, failed to fill out the down ballot candidates.

Everyone has known for decades about the everyday routine fraud, and in this sense nothing new to see.

But what is new is that they gathered petabytes of computer data on the everyday routine fraud, allowing them to make plausible lower bound guesses on that fraud. It is, at the lower bound, still enormous. Honest elections would produce a wildly different political leadership.

This investigation only covered certain small areas of certain states, it took a sample, because just too much data otherwise, but the ballot box stuffing in the small sample alone was sufficient to throw the election, meaning that without the usual routine fraud, the three AM stuffing would have had to have been even bigger and more blatant, and there would have been a downballot landslide. It appears to be an approximately twenty billion dollar or so business.

If we suppose that fraud only happened within the sample, then without the fraud Trump would have won (except that they would have just increased the 3AM fraud). If we suppose that the sample is representative, that similar fraud happened everywhere, someone who makes Trump look like a progressive trannie would have won.

Another thing that is new is that it documents Republican refusal to do anything about fraud, that everyone in every state at every level of authority, turns a blind eye, absolutely regardless of party affiliation. All the ballot boxes in every state investigated had official video cameras watching every ballot box, and all of the many thousands of incidents of ballot box stuffing were officially recorded on official video in each and every state, and officially ignored in each and every state. That, I did not know.

What I found very interesting was the reaction of people when they saw someone stuffing ballot boxes in broad daylight in front of a crowd of people lined up to vote. It is like a woman misbehaving in the workplace. No one admits to seeing what they are seeing.

Just as the strange inability to notice what is happening in the workplace reveals what is denied, the strange inability to see ballot box stuffing reveals what is denied. Not only does everyone know that workplaces are intolerably disrupted by female misconduct, everyone knows that elections are rigged. Obviously the bystanders know that knowing these things is going to get one in trouble, and one cannot know that one is going to get into trouble, except one knows the thing one is not permitted to know. One will not choose to unsee what one sees, unless one knows it is state sponsored lie by a state of terrifying power that enforces lies.

Everyone involved in election integrity enforcement in every state unsaw what they saw, and random bystanders in the street caught on ballot box video unsaw what they saw.

And they are not going to start seeing what they are seeing until thousands of ballot box stuffers get thrown into the Pacific, gay K5 teachers get thrown from high buildings, and women disrupting the workplace get whipped out the door naked and bruised.

The party of God and Christ

May 5th, 2022

The Republican party is walking dead, in the same way the lamestream media are walking dead.

If you look at measures of engagement, the lamestream media have absolutely insignificant engagement compared to the major media figures of the alt right, and major alt media figures who frequently interview major media figures of the alt right.

And now the lamestream Republican party is showing similar symptoms.

Of course, reactionaries and the Dark Enlightenment also have very low engagement levels, compared to major media figures of the alt right, but direct mass engagement was never one of our goals. We aim to influence the influencers, and in this we are succeeding.

Trump united the alt right with lamestream right when he was running for power in 2016, but as soon as he achieved power, cut the alt right out, as dangerously radioactive. He was probably right to think our dangerous radioactivity would have caused him problems, but cutting us out was a huge mistake, for it meant his apparatus was full of enemies and traitors, which bit him hard.

And now the lamestream right, like the lamestream media, is quietly fading out of existence, but, like the lamestream media, has not realized it yet.

Doug Mastriano is running in the Republican primary for governor of Pennsylvania. He will probably win, and if he wins the Republican nomination for governor, he would surely win the governorship in the unlikely event that a free and fair election were to take place.

Trump has not yet endorsed Doug, and were he to endorse him, I am sure all his lamestream political consultants would wet their pants in fear and horror. If Trump endorses Doug, Trump will be decisively breaking with the grave strategic error he made in 2016.

The interesting and important thing about Doug’s website is that the word “Republican” nowhere appears on the landing page. The word “God” does however appear near the top.

On his landing page he presents the identity that he expects to get people to vote for him. And “Republican” is not part of that identity. People just do not care about the Republican party any more. They are not running for the Republican party. They are running for God, Country, and Freedom.

When I see people striving for office against lamestream Republicans, their identity as individuals and as an organized movement is not “Republican” but Christian.

These people are not the Republican party. They are the party of God and Christ. And they are not the God and Judeo Christ party either.

Are they alt right? Well the alt right is so radioactive that they maintain a studied ambiguity on the issue, but Democrats think that they are, and I think that most of them are. Are they reactionary and/or Dark Enlightenment? They are not, but we have their ear.

Will they win power? Chances are that all they will achieve is to demonstrate that the only path forward is through Caesar (the Republic died in the early hours of 2020 November the fourth) but if that is the case, and I have some bets riding that it is the case, needs demonstration. I had expected that the Democrats would have demonstrated that for us by now, but I was wrong. Election time will likely clarify.

Preen

April 30th, 2022

Musk tweeted:
“The far left hates everyone, themselves included!”

Now where did you first hear the meme “The left hates everyone, themselves included”?

And now everyone is saying it.

And people who are repeating Musk are also talking about a far left minority moving into everything and taking over, exercising terrifying power wildly disproportionate to their actual support. They are saying “paper tiger”.

What happened to the Canadian trucker protesters and the Jan 6 protesters, however, demonstrates that this minority can only be removed by organized violence, and those saying “paper tiger” are still, for the most part, suffering normality bias. But if one meme penetrates, the next will eventually penetrate also.

Money has functions four

April 21st, 2022

A medium, a measure, a standard, a store.

1. Medium of exchange

The US centered financial system has become less and less functional for exchange, with international bank transfers becoming ever more dangerous and difficult. Cutting Russia out of SWIFT was a huge additional blow to this functionality. Countries now need to keep some foreign reserves in the Yuan or the Ruble, in order to enable transactions, and are starting to do so. Israel, among others, has added a tiny amount of Yuan to its foreign reserves, and correspondingly decreased its dollar and EU holdings by a tiny amount.

I was expecting far bigger moves, far faster, but it begins. Slower than I expected. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, but they correct eventually.

In the commodity markets, someone who is making preparations and spending money with the intent of delivering a commodity, such as ingots of copper, sells a on the commodity exchange a promise to deliver, in return for a promise to pay a certain price, thus he knows when he is spending money to dig and smelt the copper, how much he is going to be paid. Similarly, someone who is preparing to build something, for which he will need a great deal of copper, buys a promise of delivery at a certain price, and these promises are traded on the commodity exchanges. When the time comes for both parties to fulfill the contract, the supplier delivers the commodity to somewhere ten thousand miles away from the commodity exchange, and gets paid the agreed sum by a speculator on the commodity exchange, and the buyer pays a different agreed sum to a different speculator on the commodity exchange. This makes the entries on both parties books meaningful, connects the paper book keeping to reality, and ensures your books accurately depict activities that will deliver a stream of fiat money.

Reality now is that commodity exchanges are defaulting on contracts right, left, and sideways.

“Sorry, sanctions” says the commodity speculator as he pockets your money.

“Also Anthropogenic Climate Change, Covid, Environmental, Social, and Governance” he says as he pockets some more. We are seeing a collapse of trust and trustworthiness among the elite operating the financial system.

In order to move goods over distance, you need financial system you can trust. And lately the elites operating the financial system have been acting in a conspicuously untrustworthy fashion.

“You contracted for delivery of urea, and it was not delivered, and in consequence your corn crop failed? Sorry. Can’t be helped. Environmental, Social, and Governance.”

To move goods over distance, particularly commodity goods with fluctuating prices, we are going to need a blockchain, an immutable append only data structure. But to connect a blockchain to physical things, like land or urea deliveries, would require a stationary bandit who enforces property rights witnessed by a blockchain, so that he can tax those property rights and so that his military logistics works. Need the social technology, as well as the software.

2. A measure of value

You look at dollar prices to see if something is too expensive or a good buy, but with rapid inflation your past experience and your intuition is worthless.

The US dollar has become disastrously less useful as a measure of value, and the physical shortages you are seeing are a reflection of this.

As I posted previously: A business is built on its books, and when you have rapid inflation, the books are meaningless. It is like trying to build a house using rubber tape measures and silly putty set squares. Normality bias is built into the way a business operates, so they get hit first and hardest when the seigniorage tax approaches and exceeds the Laffer limit.

3. A standard of value

You contract in dollars for future payments, as when buying real estate with a fixed interest mortgage.

Mortgage rates are rising rapidly, but are well below inflation, and so far, are rising substantially slower than inflation. So real estate at ridiculously high prices with a high interest mortgage is likely a very good buy.

The financial risk of buying real estate at a high price with a high fixed interest rate, is that the government will successfully check inflation. Last time the government successfully checked inflation was the Reagan era, which required a long period of real interest rates that reflected real inflation. If the government has the will to raise interest rates to match real inflation, and if it has the financial capacity to do that without defaulting on the national debt, then real estate might well be a bad buy. What are the chances that the government has the will and financial capacity to do what had to be done last time?

The big risk with real estate, as a great many wealthy people in blue state America are discovering right now, is not that government might suddenly discover the will and capability to halt inflation. It is that government might well lack the will and capability to defend your property rights. All those lily white people in lily white neighborhoods full of three million dollar mansions put out their socially required Black Lives Matter signs, and voted to defund the police to prove that they were good persons, and, surprise surprise …

4. A store of value

If you store value in US dollars, you are paying a very high seigniorage tax.

Hodling time

April 12th, 2022

As investment advice, this post represents rumor, speculation, and incomplete information. Keep an eye on the bad weather I speak of, and make your own judgment about the storm. I have lost a great deal of money, and made a great deal of money. Future performance may not reflect past performance.

I am long on land, stocks, and crypto currency. Will soon no longer be long on stocks.

We are now a time of high inflation, though the CPI and general public are still in stubborn denial. To accurately assess real inflation, look at the prices of spot traded base commodities: Oil, natural gas, copper, silver (not gold, it is demonetizing) wheat, soybeans, corn, coffee, cotton, rice, cocoa, and the used vehicle index. The apartments for rent index is not useful, as it differs radically in different locations as order and safety collapse in some locations far more than in others.

Commodity prices are soaring, and they are all soaring in roughly the same way at the same time

It looks like the underlying inflation rate for commodities is around fifty to a hundred percent. Commodities are the primary leading indicator for inflation. List prices are a lagging indicator, reflecting the inherent detachment from reality of book keeping denominated in fiat currency.

Last time we had high inflation, stocks were an absolutely terrible investment. Once Reagan checked inflation, they were a terrific investment.

It is difficult to operate a business during rapid inflation. A business is built on its books, and when you have rapid inflation, the books are meaningless. It is like trying to build a house using rubber tape measures and silly putty set squares. This is another issue that future crypto currency wallets must address.

Businesses were an accounting fiction before they were a legal fiction, and they still are primarily an accounting fiction imagined into reality, rather than a legal fiction pretended by the state.

Normality bias is built into the way a business operates, so they get hit first and hardest when the seigniorage tax approaches and exceeds the Laffer limit.

Last time we had high inflation, you should have invested in gold. I was late into gold.

This time, crypto currency. Gold is being spontaneously demonetized as silver was. In a time short as measured in decades, will fall to its value as an industrial metal, as silver did. Though if the grid goes down and you are stuck in an area where the grid has gone down and stayed down, and have no plans to move, being nestled with like minded and like armed people, gold will be mighty handy. On the other hand, the situation may well arrive when it is move or die, in which case gold will be useless, and crypto currency mighty handy.

But which crypto currency?

The nature of the Cathedral is to assimilate, rather than to intentionally destroy, though they usually wind up unintentionally destroying. And they are assimilating crypto currency, or attempting to, for example WBTC, an enemy institution run by people who hate us and intend us harm.They are assimilating through KYC, with the result that the KYC exchanges are suffering a downturn, which will eventually be fatal. The KYC exchanges will die with fiat.

KYC exchanges are, and will remain, the path from fiat to bitcoin, but in order for this to work for our enemies, they have to demonetize “dirty” bitcoins. Some of our enemies have made a start on this, and I am becoming very worried, but Shaniqua is in charge, the game plan remains assimilation. The threat looms, but is likely to go on quietly looming for some time.

Because miners are few, well known, and immobile, the blood diamonds attack (demonetization of “dirty” bitcoins) is likely to work. I am writing code for preparations for this eventuality, for the use of crypto currency in a considerably more hostile environment, but my preparations are very far from ready. For the moment, safe harbor from the blood diamonds attack is Monero. Not moving into Monero yet, but getting ready to jump. Probably going to jump soon, depending on how the wind blows. Some people are jumping already, and this may be behind the recent rise in Monero. If you jump late, you will be buying Monero at a higher price, but if you jump early, you are acting on rumor, speculation, and incomplete information, which is always bad.

When allocating capital to its highest and best use it is generally wiser to jump in late, and miss out of some of the appreciation that you wisely anticipated, rather than to jump in early and be totally wrong.

Monero faces even worse scaling problems than bitcoin. It is not going to be the one. The one will have the capacity to scale to being a world currency, and will have its privacy system and most of its contract system in the lightning layer, not in the primary blockchain. Monero has inherent problems implementing a contract system and a lightning layer. But Monero may well be a safe harbor in the coming storm.

The one will have a sophisticated and flexible lightning contract layer, and simple, inflexible, and seldom changing contract system in its primary layer.

The bitcoin lightning layer is theory capable of being a better shield than Monero, but we will have to see how things develop. It does not seem adequately weaponized to resist the blood diamonds attack, though it can be and should be.

Weaponization means you don’t just have to worry about individual bad apples and screwups doing bad things out of self interest or incompetence, but brigading, entire highly organized groups saying “we are your side, we are here to help”, with the intention of doing you harm, even at their own expense, as for example WBTC.

The chief flaw in all existing crypto currencies, including Monero and Grin, is that the metadata about a transaction goes through outside your wallet, and, of course, gets integrated with blockchain analysis data. Which blockchain analysis causes considerably less damage to fungibility in Monero and Grin, but does not do zero damage. We need a system where the social net through which you transact, and the reputations of business and financial institutions, are inside the wallet. The wallet has to be a chat and messaging system, in which messages can carry money, but do not need to. So when you pay someone, your data about the transaction and his data about the transaction are rendered immutable and linked to each other, but linked only by hashes existing in your wallet and his wallet, which therefore has to be frequently backed up, and therefore can contain no secret keys, just the information about how the secret keys are derived from the master secret. It should be possible to enter additional master secrets and secret keys, but they should be used once, then the wallet immediately discards them.

This means that the wallet is potentially capable of being a business book, in which which case we will eventually have to separate the value of transaction at the time it was made from the current value of the currency in which it was made. Bitpay does this by representing everything in American dollars at the time of transaction and Bitcoin beach wallet gives you your choice of fiat currency to represent the value of a transaction, a solution that with rapid inflation now, the likelihood of hyperinflation looming, and the role of the dollar as an international medium of exchange, measure of value, standard of value, and store of value collapsing, is no longer satisfactory and likely to rapidly become less satisfactory. Some people are proposing a commodity index as a replacement for the measure and standard of value roles of money, separating those two roles from the medium and store roles of money. Thus one should have the option of representing transactions and making promises of transactions in terms of the commodity value that the crypto currency had at the time of the transaction.

If we rely upon the existing eco system of networks, it is likely to be applied against us as it was against Russia. All existing networks will be weaponized, resulting in fragmentation. The internet is becoming the splinternet. When blood diamonds attack comes through, lightning servers that do not comply are going to lose their domain names. So, we have to have a reputation system where a server’s reputation is attached to a public key, whose master secret is not hot anywhere, and similarly, a proof of stake has to function as a replacement for the corporate form, or else we get what happened to bitpay

Bitpay did great work of immense value to all bitcoiners by making it easy for a business to accept payment in bitcoin. Unfortunately it organized itself as a limited liability corporation, and the state became pissed when people used bitcoin to do what bitcoin was designed to do, and the boot of the state is now on Bitpay’s back.

Crypto currency corporations, to resist the kind of pressure that crippled Bitpay’s functionality, need to be organized as sovereign corporations, with a proof of stake blockchain in place of shares. And they need to support a lightning wallet with a lightning wallet style transaction that exchanges their shares for lightning layer bitcoin off chain.

We will likely see what happened to SWIFT – as existing networks become weaponized against privacy and freedom, demand for alternatives will rise. There has been a big rise in bitcoin-ruble transactions.

Russia was utterly unprepared for being thrown out of SWIFT, and still has not organized any satisfactory replacement, but as people and governments found ad hoc, messy, complicated, and unsatisfactory workarounds, this is having an effect less and less damaging for Russia and Russians, and more and more damaging for the US dollar and the international banking system. The ruble has now recovered against the US dollar, while the US dollar is falling like a stone again commodities and losing primacy as the currency in which goods and services are valued internationally.

If all goes well, by the time that existing networks are fully weaponized against crypto currency and blockchain based technologies, we will manage to stumble our way to bringing up a counter system of networks, and something similar will happen. By weaponizing the network, the state will bring about splinternet, and thus makes its networks less useful, as it has made SWIFT less useful.

The trans cult

April 3rd, 2022

First they overlook evil, then they permit evil, then they legalize evil, then they promote evil, then they celebrate evil, then they persecute anyone who still calls it evil.

You pretended they were your equal, only to be promptly informed that they were your superior, which superiority is backed by the fist of the state and the officially unofficial state religion shouted at you from every rooftop.

We feel helpless, we have no authority to call evil evil when the state calls it good. But you do have that authority. Even though my faith is less than a mustard seed, demons still flee before Christ. In my personal life, invoking God and Bible is startlingly and surprisingly effective. Works. Possibly it works because Christ has real power, and possibly our state religion has real demons. Possibly it works because progressives are eternally uncertain that they have the support of their tribe, while they they feel if someone is referencing the bible and God, he does have the support of his tribe. Possibly it works because we have been Christian for seventeen centuries, and it takes a while for the coals to go out. They see God behind me.

It feels very much as if Christ has real power, and whether the demons of the state religion are real or not, demon worship is real.

Hear is a report from girl was caught in the trans cult as a naive teenager, as so many are caught today, but escaped. Hat tip ExileStyle

Its understandable that any young person exposed to this kind of belief system would grow to deeply resent being white, “cis”, straight, or (biologically) male. The beauty of gender ideology is it provides a way to game this system, so that you can get some of those targets off your back and enjoy the camaraderie of like-minded youths. You can’t change your race, pretending to have a different sexuality would be very uncomfortable in practice, but you can absolutely change your gender, and it’s as easy as putting a “she/they” in your bio. Instantly you are transformed from an oppressing, entitled, evil, bigoted, selfish, disgusting cishet white scum into a valid trans person who deserves celebration and special coddling to make up for the marginalization and oppression you supposedly now face. Now not expected to do as much groveling and reaffirming to everyone how much you love checking your privilege, you can relax a little and talk about your life without wondering if you are distracting from the struggles of or speaking over marginalized groups, because you are marginalized too. With the new pronouns often comes a wave of positive affirmation from friends and followers, and the subconscious picks up quickly that there’s a way to make the deal of being on Tumblr even sweeter.

This is the incentive I felt to comb through my thoughts and memories for things that might be further evidence that deep down, I wasn’t really a girl. I hated my body; it must be because I don’t like that its female. Boys have never been interested in me like they are with other girls; well, maybe I would be attractive as a boy, and then I could be like all these cute “gay trans boys” I saw dating each other online. I didn’t have many friends, it must be because being a girl isn’t my “authentic self”, and that was getting in the way of my social life. Plus, people were nicer to me since I said I was trans so that must be an indication that being trans is the right thing to do to make friends. Female sexuality is hypersexualized and pornified, yet it’s supposed to be “empowering” for women to do porn, be prostitutes, or have dangerous, kinky, scary sounding sex with many different men.

She should have tried hitting them with the old and new testament. Works, and psychologically a lot healthier.

part of me genuinely thought testosterone would somehow make me into this outgoing male jock archetype and I would be handsome, have lots of friends, and love life. That wasn’t really panning out.

What a surprise. No one tells them about the staggeringly high trans suicide rate, because that would be discriminatory. Women and men are too fundamentally different for transition to work. Testosterone works great for men on a male mind and a male body. Disastrous for a female mind and a female body.

During the initial months following my first shot, I recall a general feeling of suffocating numbness and inability to identify my emotions, with bouts of anger that were easy to trigger dispersed throughout. Something that before would have made me mostly sad, or even frustrated, made every cell in my body overflow with rage.

Women cannot handle the psychological effects of testosterone, and not all men can handle it. But in me, testosterone makes stronger and braver, and gives me more, not less, self control. “Roid rage” is a perversion of what testosterone is supposed to do – and if you are already practicing perversion, that is what you will get – it is the psychological impact of testosterone going into perverse and self damaging channels, rather than to its proper telos. And of course, when a woman takes testosterone, there is no proper telos for testosterone’s psychological effect to go into.

I resorted to hitting myself. I would struggle against the anger by punching myself and eventually, after there was enough pain, I could cry and when I cried I’d cry for hours, often falling asleep and not remembering much when I’d wake up.

The testosterone was prompting action, but no proper telos, so self destructive action

I told Jamie that I was regretting my transition and questioning my trans identity in general, and predictably she was extremely upset. She reacted in anger, saying I must be confused and, like my therapist, accusing me of having these thoughts due to some underlying psychological issue, like only an insane person would ever regret being trans.

They generally do not regret being trans, but for some entirely unrelated reason 🙃 are apt to commit suicide. Odd that.

Not odd at all, for regretting being trans is sacrilege against their demons.

Then she reads an essay that depicts trans as socially transmitted insanity:

I was in shock. This was… me! Perhaps more importantly, this was… EVERYONE! All of those young biological females I had been friends with online and offline who identified as trans also fit this exact description.

She succumbed to social pressure from wicked people. And it is hard for anyone, and much harder for women, to resist wicked social pressure unless you can call it wicked. We have several millenia of ancient wisdom, that is proving useful as the Enlightenment goes full demonic.

Sanctions and crypto currency

March 29th, 2022

For a long time it has been becoming more and more difficult and dangerous to perform international transactions in fiat money. It has suddenly become a lot more difficult and dangerous.

Crypto currency is replacing fiat currency. The breakdown of trust and trustworthiness means that there is no alternative. That is why crypto currency scaling problems are now biting hard, and will soon be biting a great deal harder.

Bankers have an incentive to create unsustainable debt bubbles. To prevent this, need to pop term transformation bubbles early and often, and have draconian consequences for bankers that fail. But, because bankers have a lot of pull, and because sovereigns tend to lose control of their bureaucracy, the opposite policy tends to be followed.

Popping a term transformation bubble is painful and hurts a lot of people, primarily powerful and influential people, so the problem keeps getting kicked down the road until it gets too big to kick.

That the Rothschilds were out of power was suddenly revealed to everyone when their too-big-to-kick-any-further bubble popped in 1931. Which is why today all the Soros shills say “Rothschilds, Rothschilds, Rothschilds, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain”

In the great depression, and postwar, the US debt bubble was largely nationalized. Additional nationalizations of debt bubbles left outside have occurred since then, most dramatically mortgage backed securities following the great minority mortgage meltdown.

People keep investing in unsustainable debt bubbles, expecting them to be nationalized when problems happen.

But even nationalization cannot kick the bubble down the road forever, and the United States dollar is reaching the end of the road.

Wartime controls will both accelerate its end, and simultaneously extend the pretense that everything is fine and normal, as it is slowly and shockingly discovered that everything is not fine and normal.

War makes the end both faster and also considerably slower and more painful. Lots of proposals are floating around to make de-facto nationalization even more de-jure than it already is. The likely result of such measures is that in the end official reality will be completely fine while you are living in the street and eating bugs.

In the Chinese Evergrande crisis, international investors were mighty shocked when the theoretically communist Chinese government, in a surprising display of commitment to Hong Kong capitalism, cheerfully allowed Evergrande’s debt to pop. The ordinary man who put a down payment on an apartment is now at the head of the line, and the international investors at the back of the line. And if you are at the back of the line, the obligations that Evergrande owes you are likely to worthless. In similar situations, the theoretically democratic and theoretically capitalist American government seldom allows the bubble to pop, and if it does pop, the ordinary man is at the back of the line, and the international investor at the front of the line. We have an ever growing pile of unpopped zombie bubbles denominated in American dollars. Biden promises to address this problem by soaking the rich, while the problem exists in large part because certain rich people have far too much state and quasi state influence and power.

Those rich are not going to be soaked. The productive rich, such as Musk, will be soaked, but no amount of soaking of anyone is likely to make much of a dent in the problem. It became far too big to be solved by any amount of soaking of anyone long before it became far too big to continue kicking it down the road.

It is impractical for Russians to receive payment in gold from an unfriendly country, or even from a friendly country with high levels of elite defection, because the gold would be intercepted. And these days every major trading country has high levels of elite defection, particularly China.

And impractical for Russians to receive payment in Euros or dollars, because the Euros or dollars would be intercepted on the ground of sanctions.

Thus the Putin policy simply reflects what is in the individual interests of individual businessmen who are simply trying to do business and are horrified that war is in the way.

Every businessman in every country has one foot in the same boat, since every businessman doing business internationally is evading sanctions, or might well be evading sanctions unknowingly, because there is no clear way of complying with sanctions, or doing business with someone who is evading sanctions, or likely to be accused of attempting to evade sanctions by someone who wants to seize money in transit.

This is making it very difficult to do business internationally.

I would like to say “crypto currency to the rescue”, but …

Bitcoin and Monero are both hitting their scaling limits hard, even though the Monero blockchain is nowhere near as large as the bitcoin blockchain.

Neither data structure was designed to handle enormous sizes, and the Monero data structure handles enormous sizes considerably worse even than the Bitcoin data structure.

There is no way of knowing the bitcoin current mutable state (the set of unspent transaction outputs, the set of public keys that govern non zero value on the blockchain) other than grinding through the entire immutable append only data structure from the beginning without a single error or failure, and in Monero, there is in a sense no way of knowing the current state at all, which makes it very possible that due to subtle bugs or coordinated fraud (brigading), Monero is being inflated under the covers.

To scale, you have to have a data structure that gracefully handles some small part of the data getting lost, corrupted, or incorrectly processed. And we just don’t have that. It has long been known how to do that, but it just has not been done.

And we are going to need a representation of the immutable append only data structure that gracefully extends over several disks, and if one disk fails, we only lose and only have to restore one disk’s worth of data.

If you have a single corruption or data loss issue in the bitcoin blockchain, you have to re-index, which takes a very long time. And if you have a single corruption or data loss issue in the Monero blockchain, you have to re-download the entire blockchain from the beginning, because the Monero blockchain is all one gigantic memory mapped file. Which takes a very long time. And as the blockchains get larger and larger, data corruption necessarily happens more and more often.

Once a single memory mapped file gets big enough, it is always going to have data corruption and data loss issues. Monero does have all sorts of measures to mostly accommodate this problem most of the time, but as the blockchain gets larger and larger, they take longer and longer, and failures that cannot be accommodated happen more and more often.