The Ukraine army begins to crumble.

February 24th, 2024

I usually do not report the news of the day — it is impossible to understand the daily events except from the perspective of years. If one pays too much attention to the news of the morning, one is overwhelmed by meaningless noise. But today, a big change.

Today the Russians took a bunch of villages without much of a fight, and a bunch of prisoners without a fight. Little villages, and a small amount of turf, as usual. But what has changed is the a sudden diminuition in resistance. Among those villages that quietly changed hands was Robotyne, a tiny insignificant village and tiny insignificant patch of land over which so many vast rivers of blood have been spilled for the past year and a day. Exhausted Ukrainian soldiers are retreating in disorder across the front.

On checking the mainstream media, I see Baghdad Bob levels of denial:


The Russians Got Cocky After Avdiivka, And Sent 70-Year-Old T-55 Tanks To Attack Robotyne. It Ended Badly.

Yes, Russia is a gas station masquerading as a great power🙃

Yahoo News:

Russian Armed Forces fail near Robotyne: Five occupiers become prey for only two Ukrainian soldiers

The events they are reporting are not made up, those things really happened, but the implied frame, the implied context, is wildly and ludicrously out of step with the reality of what is happening on the ground, which is Ukrainian collapse. Russians are moving into formerly occupied Ukrainian turf, one squad at a time, one tank at a time, and sometimes they get an unpleasant surprise. But most of the time, they do not. “Oh, attempting to take Robotyne with one tank, and one armored personnel carrier carrying five soldiers failed? OK, we will have another go with two tanks and two armored personel carriers, each carrying a squad of half a dozen, attacking from different directions.”

The Ukrainians in Robotyne ran away without a fight. The fields around Robotyne are littered with Leopards and Bradleys, and the thunder in and around Robotyne which has been unceasing for a year and day has fallen quiet.

Fighting continues across the front, but Ukrainians killed has fallen dramatically, while Ukrainians taken prisoner has risen dramatically. Since the liberation of Avdeyevka, the nature of the fighting has changed substantially.

How to do bitcoin in a country like India that has a locked down financial system

February 13th, 2024

There are a few based Hindus on this blog, and they have been telling me they cannot do bitcoin, so cannot set up a blog securely.

India has a locked down financial system and war on cash, which Indians are resisting by using gold, but you cannot do long distance transactions in gold.

If you run an electrum wallet over tor in a country like India, the authorities are unlikely to be able to detect it. But how do you convert the fiat of a locked down financial system into bitcoin, to escape the lockdown.

Well, every country with a severely locked down financial system has a large expat diaspora, India and China being the most massive examples, and the Chinese expat population provides channels through the lockdown, channels that Chinese in China use extensively, have been using for a long time, and are using more and more.

A short while ago India and the UAE introduced a cash card to provide Indian UAE expats with a wide open door between the locked down Indian financial system and the wide open UAE financial system.

(Note that you cannot, or at least should not, run a lightning routing node over tor, but if you are trying to sneak past lockdown, should not run a lightning routing node anyway. A lightning node that is a client of a couple of routing nodes should work fine.).

Thermidor is in power, Team B is now on top of Team A

February 6th, 2024

The Biden puppet just gave a speech, ostensibly directed at everyone, and ostensibly directed at Republicans, but actually directed at the radicals, telling them to cool it.

Google failed to commemorate black history month. The immanent eschaton has strangely been postponed. Lawfare against Trump and Musk is quietly being dropped, albeit there is still a judicial order outstanding against Tesla that they must give nineteen billion dollars to the radical left, cancel Musk’s shares, and appoint an anti Musk board, but I expect that this extraordinary and unprecedented judicial order will quietly be forgotten, as ninety odd court cases against Trump are suddenly stuck in the slow lane.

The Biden, meaning the group of people puppeting him, were always a mixed lot, a coalition of true believing fanatics intent on a totalitarian terror state of utterly unprecedented savagery (it is obvious that the mass importation of young military age black men is preparation for white genocide) and the mob of cynical Washington, New York, and Harvard kleptocrats grown fat skimming the gravy of empire. The latter were horrified by Trump’s retreat from empire. Drinking their own koolaide, believing their own official government statistics, that America was prosperous and mighty, they saw no need for such a retreat.

With the Global American Empire falling about their ears, suddenly the Washington kleptocrats miss Trump. The coalition that installed The Biden has fractured.

The radicals don’t care. They are not in power in the White House now, which is going to cramp their style somewhat, but no one close enough to power to be spat upon has any enemies to the left, nor friends to the right. They are still in power in that every institution is completely controlled by the faithful believers in our officially unofficial faith, which worships demons, among them Gaia, Ishtar, and Covid. Thermidor is going to have a rough ride, and Trump is going to have a rough ride.

Assuming we don’t get the extraordinary election rigging of 2020 and 2022, Trump wins in a landslide, and brings in a horde of Maga Republicans riding his coat tails into the legislature.

At which point the irrelevance of the president and legislature is going to become a point of tension. The radicals have demonic paladins. Thermidor has no Paladins. As I keep saying, Thermidor needs reaction to give it steel. Last time around Trump did not include anyone from the alt right, the reaction, or the Christian right in his administration. If he makes the same mistake again, the radical left will continue on its current course, just a bit slower, and with some minor setbacks, which it will soon overcome. They will absorb and build upon their Trump retreat, as they absorbed and built upon their Reagan retreat.

In past Thermidors, the Thermidoreans encountered a ride sufficiently rough that they let reaction off the leash to take some effective measures against the radical left.

Thermidor is always fragile, shaky, and unstable – sometimes it staggers on for a long time while everything crumbles, but usually it turns left or right – normally right. In the Soviet Union, Thermidor nailed Beria, and with the radical left having been eradicated by the likes of Beria, was now seemingly securely in power. But the faith that animated the Soviet Union had died, and they had killed it.

The Washington kleptocrats are counting on Trump for a Soviet Style denoument, where the kleptocrats remain stably in power, without the radicals destroying everything. We shall see.

The trouble with this plan is that they think Trump is their Beria, their General Monk. No, Trump is a 1980s leftist, a mere two score years behind the current year. He is going to need his General Monck.

The radicals are worried by Trump’s plan to punish those that weaponized the justice system and purge the FBI. Thermidor is less troubled, because it needs the leftists who think Thermidor is their enemy purged. (It is not their enemy. It thinks the radical left are good people being foolish, and the officially unofficial state religion is good, if not taken to extremes.) But unless Trump takes the reaction on board, the purge is not going to get very far, and the punishment will merely be a decade or so of a slightly less central position in the halls of power. To fix the FBI and the spy agencies, Trump needs to hire a General Monck.

Microsoft turns off the past

February 3rd, 2024

For a very long time I have been using a very old windows tool, abandonware, but there is no replacement for it.

I use it to keep a very large pile of structured data and metadata about sensitive information. And this tool suddenly stopped working. After playing around a bit, I came to suspect that the latest windows update had turned it off, probably with a very large amount of other old software. I still had read only access to the data, and I still had a windows machine on which updates had been stopped a short time earlier, and everything still worked fine on the machine running slightly older windows software, only three days older.

I then set to work creating a windows machine which I intended to always run an outdated version of windows, and never to be connected to the internet or the rest of my home network, except through sneakernet. Only to discover that a short time before turning off old software, Microsoft had also scoured the internet of older versions of windows install isos, which starts to look mighty conspiratorial, intentional, and malicious. Also the update happened silently in the background, not with the normal process that involves user interaction, which looks very conspiratorial, intentional and malicious indeed. Software got turned off in a silent hidden background update.

Could everyone please check their hard drives and cd pile for versions of windows install iso predating the current release. They are about to become valuable, also highly illegal, and highly in demand. Also, of course, highly vulnerable to network worms – they will not be useful on the internet, only for running in isolation.

I dumped all the data into non proprietary format – which format did could not contain my precious metadata that structured my very private data. I then zipped it up and encrypted it, and added it to my backup system. I have a plan to manage my data in a new format, but it is going to be a bit more cumbersome and less convenient.

All the new software coming out these days helpfully backs up your precious data in the clear to the cloud. Everyone is installing these wonderfully handy tools that listen to every word you say, send it to the cloud, where an Ai does speech to text conversion, which gives you the convenient ability to say “Siri, play the wheels on the bus song” when the children want entertainment. Today, the television watches you. People are doing this voluntarily, but turning off old software makes it less convenient to avoid, and that this is happening indicates it is going to be systematically and intentionally made less and less convenient.

Does linux fix this? Snap is the first step along the path that Windows has walked – well actually the second or third step. One could argue that systemd and Gnome3 were earlier steps in this direction. Don’t run anything in snap, run it in flatpak. But if you run Ubuntu, strangely difficult and inconvenient to avoid running things in snap.

Just as it has become ever more difficult to access old books, it is going to become ever more difficult to avoid having a television set that watches you. And Microsoft turning off old software looks mighty funny.

Fall of the Global American Empire

January 31st, 2024

When Trump took power in 2016 the Global American Empire was dangerously over extended, due to all the ever more brutal, bloody, horrifying, and terrible color revolutions of the Obama presidency, particularly Syria.

Trump the president cut deals for quiet, orderly, dignified and very gradual retreat on all fronts. The two most important being that Nato on Russia’s borders would quietly fade, and that the Taliban would quietly take power in Afghanistan shortly in his second term, with the US retaining only Bagram airbase. The presidency, however, had other ideas, saw no reason why their power and their muppet regime in Afghanistan should disappear, and were itching to expand Nato and collapse Russia, hence the RussiaRussiaRussia narrative.

After the election was stolen and Trump removed, the regime went ahead with Trump’s planned withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan, but did so on the basis that they were merely handing weapons and responsibility from direct Washington control to the nominal control of their muppet regime in Kabul. So they pulled the despised fighting men out first, leaving the weapons and camp followers last, because they expected and intended that all the comforts provided by the camp followers would be available to their bureaus and clients in Afghanistan, without being bothered by those irritating, and irritatingly white, soldiers. All the irritating and unimportant menial fighting would be done by slightly less white soldiers, whose deaths would be further away and less embarrassing at home, and the US would have another lovely frozen conflict, in its vast portfolio of frozen conflicts to be activated whenever a client state showed signs of getting uppity.

The president had to fight the presidency over the issue of leaving weapons and equipment behind, because the presidency intended that that stuff be handed over to their Kabul muppets, while the president and the Taliban expected and intended that as US soldiers moved out, Taliban militia would move in.

But things were quiet in Afghanistan only because of deal that Trump had made. With Trump removed, the deal was removed, and withdrawal turned into shameful and terrible collapse. As arranged, Taliban militia moved in, and muppets in Kabul had neither the capability to stop them, nor any expectation that the Taliban were going to move in. Trump had been removed because he was an obstacle to delusion, which they thought to be an obstacle to power. They thought the conflict in Afghanistan was frozen because of the awesome and unchallengeable might of the Global American empire, not because Trump the great deal maker had cut a deal for peaceful and undramatic withdrawal from the periphery of empire.

As US troops moved out, Taliban militia moved in, and Global American Empire could not see it because supposedly nothing ever happens and nothing ever will happen.

Which collapse gave everyone around the world who did not much like the Global American Empire ideas.

Afghanistan, they say, is the graveyard of empires. The common factor is the great Afghan defeats of empire were delusion. They came to liberate and emancipate the Afghans, and expected the grateful multitude to throw flowers at them. They came to impose their ways on people with very different ways. The Safayid empire ruled Afghanistan with no great problems, till they tried to convert them to Shia Islam, whereupon the empire fell.

Afghanistan is easy to conquer, and lots of empires have conquered it. It is a worthless barren land, with one very great asset, that it is the crossroads of Asia. And if an empire sticks to holding the main roads, and does not bother the tough folk in the mountains too much, it easy to hold. Or at least it is easy to keep the roads safe for the empire, provided the empire leaves the tough mountain folk alone so long as the tough mountain folk leave the roads alone. The rest of it is very difficult to conquer, which is not a problem, because no sane emperor would want to conquer it. It is worthless, and very difficult to hold.

It is not that defeat in Afghanistan directly causes collapse of empire, but that defeat in Afghanistan is apt to be the first great manifestation of delusion, a delusion which is revealed to everyone except the imperials.

And now, collapse in Africa, defeat in the Red Sea, failure to achieve victory in Israel, and the Ukraine shows signs of starting to crumble. A chorus of outraged imperial voices is raised demanding war with Iran, war with Russia, war with Texas, and war with China, to remind everyone of awesome and unchallengeable might of the Global American Empire. (They don’t seem to care much about Africa.)

In the Ukraine, the expansion of the graveyards indicates about four hundred thousand Ukrainian goyim killed so far, and that is probably an underestimate, for many bodies are abandoned and left to rot, as in Krynky bridgehead, where three of Ukraine’s elite brigades have been devoured. and because the Ukrainians are re-using graves. They stick a soldier in a grave, put a wooden cross with his name on it, and very shortly the cross with his name on it is removed, another soldier is buried on top of him, and a new cross placed. A whole lot of crosses are going into the dumpster, hard to know how many.

The Russians are only making very tiny advances, at immense cost, but the cost to the Ukrainians is even more immense, and the Russian advances have been steadily becoming slightly less tiny. In some places they are through the oldest and toughest fortifications, fortifications that the Ukrainians spent nine years building, and are now facing fortifications that were only built a few months ago. In terms of square kilometres, Russian advances are absolutely insignificant. In terms of how much fortification remains between the Russians and Kiev, the Ukraine is starting to slowly crumble.

In Africa, the muppet regimes that were overthrown all had unpopular minorities in power, a local or foreign black minority ethnicity analogous the Jewish power in the west, and were replaced by officers of the local legacy population, officers from the area, faith, culture, and ethnicity where they recruited most of their actually useful fighting men. Let all potential Caesars in US armed forces take a lesson from that. When push comes to shove, Jewish LGBTQ++ four star generals born and raised within walking distance of Harvard are not going to matter.

It is still reasonably plausible for them to believe the Ukraine is just another frozen conflict in their vast portfolio of convenient frozen conflicts to be conveniently activated or deactivated at whim. But they continued to believe that in Afghanistan long after it became obviously delusional.

A possible path to survival

January 21st, 2024

Thermidor is last year leftism overthrowing current year leftism. But because leftists have no enemies to the left, no friends to the right, this is a fragile and unstable arrangement, short of bringing in a dictator for life who is a last year leftist. Thermidor, as an oligarchic group, is incapable of defending itself against enemies to the left. Although it is in the interest of the group as a whole to defend itself from the ever more insane radicals, the individual members lack the will and inclination.

The moderates have been unable to govern. But they are able to muck up the plans of the radicals to steal 2024 as they stole 2020 and 2022. Which is why what we are seeing is not a change of plan, but ineffectual chaos.

Thermidor has been confirmed: The plan to Epstein Trump has been semi abandoned, with ninety or so criminal charges in ninety or so courts not getting anywhere.

The plan to rig the New Hampshire primary has been semi abandoned and is dissolving in chaos, which will likely permit an unbroken string of Trump landslides all the way to the Whitehouse.

NBC news reports that the deep state preparing plans to continue governing as usual with Trump as president, which is what they did during the previous Trump term. (My unkind interpretation and paraphrase — they did not say it that way.)

If Trump is allowed to be elected, this does not mean it is all sunshine and roses from here on. He is going to run into the same headwinds as last time, a presidency full of his enemies, many of them utterly fanatical.

Last time around he completely excluded reactionaries, alt rightists, alt leftists, Christian Nationalists, and the radical right from power. If he does that this time around, he is going to fail again this time around. He needs the reaction, and the reaction needs a faith.

To crush current year leftism, you need a white terror. And white terrorists are always reactionaries. You have to bring a gun to a gunfight and a faith to a holy war, and Thermidoreans are merely insincere and wobbly leftists.

Zhou had to rehire Deng, Cromwell had to release Monck from prison to hire and empower him. Thermidor needs the right to give it steel.

The path to autogenocide, the end state of leftism, is obvious, and on the cards, and a lot of people see it. They are bringing in large numbers of young male military age subsaharan Africans.

Leftism gets ever lefter, ever faster, and so eventually must conclude that the path to immanentize the eschaton is to eliminate ever larger categories of people deemed obstacles to making the eschaton imminent.

It is usually, but not always, halted before this end state by Thermidor. But Thermidor is shaky, fragile, unstable, and unpredictable. Where it goes, nobody knows.

Thermidor believes in last year leftism, and finds it difficult to repress current year leftism, because it tends to have its instruments of control and repression staffed by last year leftists who feel in their bones that current year leftists are misguided and impractical, but nonetheless holier than themselves. No enemies to the left, no friends to the right. You cannot stop leftism from going ever lefter that way.

The reactionary elements of a Thermidorean regime are apt to take power, as Deng took power in China, and Monck took power in England. But the reactionaries did not take power in France. They were crushed by Napoleon, who was a last year leftist, who very efficiently crushed the reaction on his right, and the current year leftists on his left.

In Rwanda, the Tutsi were unable to organise within Rwanda, because of political repression. Organised violence beats unorganised, violence, so the Tutsi, despite their potential superior organising capability due to a substantial racially higher IQ and a substantial racially higher IQ standard deviation than your typical nigger, were slaughtered like sheep, until Tutsi from outside Rwanda intervened.

Because of ocean, intervention by exiles is likely to be difficult in America. Without Caesar, it will not be civil war but genocide. Our best hope is that Thermidor appoints a reactionary to crush current year leftism, and he becomes Caesar, possibly in revolution and civil war, that we get a reactionary Sulla, rather than a last year leftist Napoleon or a last year leftist Stalin — a Sulla.

A potential hope of survival now opens up.

The possible scenario is that Trump takes power, gets a rough ride, which rapidly gets ever rougher, appoints a Sulla to take care of the problem. Sulla takes care of the problem. Trump retires, dies, or is forcibly removed, and the oligarchy find that Sulla makes them uneasy. They are willing to put up with Trump, who is not a right winger, except by current year standards, and is a merchant not a warrior. Sulla is going to make them nervous. They attempt to remove him. Sulla takes power, possibly through revolution and civil war.

Supplemental note added later

Texas is now independent, though it does not know it, and perhaps its governor does not know it. This means that in the event of genocide, we have a potential base. The governor of Oklamhoma seems to be considering the job of Caesar, though Caesar will need border access, to get weapons.

So now two paths, and as the weakness of the Global American Empire becomes apparent to more people, likely some more surprises will come. I was very surprised that Trump was not Epsteined by now, and even more surprised when Governor Greg Abbot of Texas developed a spine, swiftly followed by Governor Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma.

The end of empire

January 14th, 2024

Britain was a sea power and sea empire, the US an airsea empire.

And it has just suffered a defeat from Yemen, following the awesomely incompetent flight from Afghanistan. Global American Empire ships now have to sail around the horn of Africa. Not a good look for the unipower.

All countries lie about GDP and CPI, though some lie a lot more extravagantly than others.

Flying into the airport and looking out the plane window, America does not look like a wealthy, technologically advanced country. Walking through the airport, let alone the subway station, looks poor. Walking through a high end shopping centre, does not look all that high end.

Looking at the arms it is able to supply Ukraine, does not look like a wealthy, technologically advanced country.

The best indicator of real GDP per capita is energy usage per capita, because everything about a comfortable modern lifestyle takes a lot of energy, energy comes into everything people do and consume. This was rising exponentially to 1972, when the rise suddenly halted. It then started fall, slowly. And suddenly it has now started to fall rather more quickly and dramatically. It looks like three trend regimes: Exponential growth starting in the seventeenth century, then stagnation and slow decline starting in 1972, and now it looks like the beginning of dramatic collapse, looks like the beginning of a sharp break in the trend of slow and gentle decline.

This reflects a regime ever more hostile to the men who made it great, to the faith that made it great, the culture that made it great, and race that made it great.

The collapse in military recruitment reveals that the grandsons of the men who conquered the world for America know the regime hates them.

As its lies failed, it resorted increasingly to terrible coercion, as in Serbia. Now coercion is failing abroad. How long will coercion continue to succeed in the heart of empire?

State of the Ukraine war.

January 4th, 2024

The ISW (State Department) position is that if America sticks its head up its ass hard enough, the problem will go away. And on past performance, that is what America is going to do.

The ISW, which is the voice of the State Department, complains that

A Ukraine strong enough to deter and defeat any future Russian aggression with an economy strong enough to prosper without large amounts of foreign aid is the only outcome of Russia’s war that the United States and the West should accept

And if an unacceptable outcome happens, like the Ukrainian economy being levelled to the ground, the Ukraine’s army collapsing in attritive warfare, and the Russians installing a Marshall Petain in Kiev?

This is like someone jumping off a cliff and half way to the jagged rocks at the bottom, declaring that the only acceptable outcome is that he lands like a feather.

The last of the Greatest Ukrainian Offensive seems to have ended today, or is ending, with the Ukrainians throwing in the towel at Krynky. Our rulers have been showing internal division, with some of them deciding that the Greatest Ukrainian Offensive ended a long while ago, with the result that Krinky became strangely invisible to them, some of them hailing Krinky as a mighty Ukrainian victory which was about to cause the collapse of Russia and the fall of Putin, and some of them noticing the facts on the ground – that it was a killing field for the Ukrainian army, with life expectancy for troops of a day or so, and highly unlikely to get much further than it had gotten, but producing clever rationalisations that the Russian were hurting even worse.

For some months the Russians have been increasingly on the offensive. And those offensives have been costly. The gains in turf have been absolutely insignificant, something in the ballpark of a square kilometre a day, but the gains in positional advantage for a war of attrition have been significant. When a local Russian offensive succeeds (and it frequently fails) they grab a strong point where the lie of the land and/or human built defences make it strong. And they then have a strong salient poking into weak Ukrainian territory, which becomes a killing field for Ukrainians. And then they cheerfully let the Ukrainians hang out in the killing fields until the Ukrainians decide to leave, whereupon it is time to grab another salient.

So far the Ukrainians have shown absolutely no sign of getting wise to this strategy, though giving up on Krinky may mean it is finally starting to sink in. They tend to hang on to unfavourable turf, and the Russians let them keep it.

The Ukrainian offensive was predicated on the reverse strategy – they would charge through at the weakest point, which was generally between strong points on either side, and then charge forth all the way to the Azov sea, whereupon those strong points, now cut off, would fall like ripe fruit. This was Kagan’s plan. I thought it moronic when he told us, and even more moronic to tell the plan on Youtube months in advance of attempting to carry it out, so the Russians would have lots of time to get ready for it. What predictably happened of course was that the Ukrainans found themselves in trapped in weak point salients surrounded by strong points, and the weak point salients became killing fields.

The Ukrainians seem to have become increasing reluctant to provide Krinky with the fresh cannon fodder it endlessly needs, or are just having some difficulty rounding up fresh cannon fodder.

The reason Krinky has been so bad for the Ukrainians is not because it is a natural weak point – it is just a random point on the delta much the same as everything around it. The problem is that everything has to be supplied in small unarmored boats that have to cross a broad river in plain sight from a long distance away, and these boats cannot carry heavy weapons. And the journey back is even more dangerous, because by the time the small unarmoured boat reaches a drop off points and drops off the latest cannon fodder, it has likely been spotted. Except during heavy rain or snow, it is a one way trip. Also the surface of the river is now turning to icy slush, too strong to drive a boat through, too weak to walk over. The boats creep slowly through the thickening slush. Maybe they have not stopped sending boats to cross the river, the boats may have stopped reaching their destinations.

The Russians have been fighting a war of attrition. The Ukrainians have been stubbornly and unusccesfully attempting to fight a war of movement, on the the instructions of deluded people from Washington. But now the tune is changing to war of attrition, to be followed by negotiations once the Russians are exhausted. Except that it is the Ukrainians that are becoming exhausted.

The killing and dying could continue for years, but the writing is on the wall. It has been on the wall for some time. The armies of the Ukraine might be able to hold the line for years, and then collapse, or months, and then collapse.

This war resembles world war I, a static war of immovable front lines, until one side collapses from attrition, though advancing drone technology and production might change that to drone on drone air warfare, and drone on drone operator air to ground warfare.

The question that remains to be revealed, is how long this goes for before the Ukrainians collapse. Signs of strain are showing. We are seeing the ruling elite, here and in the Ukraine, develop increasing amnesia and blindness, which is how they handle defeats. They unhappen them.

Their current plan, insofar as they have a plan rather than an amnesia attack, is that static warfare should continue, leading somehow to negotiations. But static warfare only leads to negotiations when the losing side realises that their negotiating position is very bad and is only going to change for the worse. And, during war, information channels that could lead to that realisation tend to get shut down.

War is a test of will and capability. Maximum will is akin to madness, but is not madness at all. What, however, we tend to observe in practice, is madness substituted for will. Rational conduct would be, once will and capability was revealed, to negotiate a peace based on what was revealed. This seldom happens in practice, and with the kind of reality blind elite we have now, even less likely to happen. Collective sanity is harder than individual sanity, because collective action is harder than individual action, and wars tend to happen because on or both sides are incapable of acting as a single cohesive unitary rational individual.

World War I started because Serbia was incapable of deciding between war and peace, incapable of choosing peace while unwilling to choose war. It became a two front war because the German generals ignored the Kaiser and invaded neutral Belgium. When you are up to your neck in alligators, bad idea to invade anyone, let alone a neutral. Likely it would have become a two front war anyway, but if it became a two front war through France invading Germany, rather than Germany invading Belgium, Germany would have had fewer enemies, and France fewer allies. If you invade a neutral unprovoked, everyone is going to figure you need to be taken out, lest you invade them next. The Kaiser understood this, while the Generals merely understood war. There is plenty of blame to go around on both sides for starting the war. No one should have supported Serbia, since the regime was incapable of rational action or decision making, but if the Germans had not invaded Belgium, the blame for starting the war would have been entirely on Russia, and on France if France attacked, which was far from certain. Germany attacked France through Belgium because France might attack Germany. Which might have been sane had Germany not already been at war with Russia.

The Serbians complained that Austria’s demands were an insult to their sovereignty, which they were, but the reason for the demands was that Serbia was incapable of exercising sovereignty over itself, incapable of restraining its minority war faction from making war. If we think of Serbia as an individual, it was an individual with a bad case of schizophrenia, and a schizophrenic’s neighbours have little choice but to interfere with his sovereignty.

Germany lost the war, because it kept stubbornly trying to regain war of movement in France, to knock France out of the war in a quick blow, as the ISW has been stubbornly trying to knock Russia out the war with a quick blow. This was more generals trying to prove that invading Belgium had been a good idea, than it was a rational military strategy. And trying to take Russia out with a quick blow is the ISW trying to prove that endlessly provoking Russia with ever escalating provocations and threats has been a good idea.

Rational behaviour would be to cut a deal on the basis of the cards that are now lying face up on the table. What is likely to happen instead is ever deeper and ever stronger delusion.

The enemy are afraid

December 28th, 2023

The neocons write (hat tip Simplicius) that America is an idea, and that idea is at risk of being lost, and that if the idea falls, America will fall.

They attribute this, of course, to Russian disinfo and Russian influence, not to them silencing freedom of speech, rigging elections, and forcing woke down everyone’s throat, but this is just point deer make horse. They can see the deer and they are afraid.

America is an idea. America is a choice. America is a belief in the value of action. US domestic resilience and global power come in no small part from people and countries choosing the United States and from Americans preserving their agency to act with intent. An adversary learning how to alter these realities is an existential threat — especially when ideas are that adversary’s core weapon.

Of course ideas are not Russia’s core weapon. Putin is almost as scared of the ideas that are frightening them as they are. Ideas are our core weapon. Russia does not frighten them. Whatever happens in Eastern Europe, they will be far from Russian drones and Russian artillery, We frighten them.

Simplicius tells us:

America the Myth floated along during all of this. It was a shared catechism of the American religion, but is becoming harder to swallow. We are becoming American Atheists and when the people stop believing in their own myths they perish.

Well, to survive we need a new myth. Or better, a very old one. One that has been regularly tried before.

The neocons tell us:

Russia’s true sphere is its global information space — communities penetrated by the Russian narratives, including in the United States

But, of course, Russia’s narrative is not penetrating us. That is point deer make horse, 指鹿為馬. On the contrary, our narrative is penetrating Russia. Putin had to be dragged kicking and screaming into holy war. He wanted a cabinet war, and was profoundly reluctant to let go of it. That is not Russia’s true sphere. This is our sphere.

The white boys from rural America decline to sign up to die for Israel and ensure that goat herder’s daughters get taught to put a condom on a banana. Our enemies know why they are not signing up.

That they know is why they are starting to hesitate a little on woke, on censorship, and may well hesitate on the more flagrant and outrageous forms of election rigging. But they are only backing off a little bit. It will likely prove far too much, and far too little. Far too little to get troops to sign up and for the public to start believing in America again, far too much in that much pent up and long suppressed outrage is going flood through the crack in the slightly opened gates. And then they, or a faction among them, will likely attempt to shut the gates again, which could get more interesting than the first time they shut the gates, for the first time they shut the gates they thought that the normal of the early Obama years would return, and America would conquer Russia. The next time no one is going to believe in Covid and Climate and all that.

The deep state

December 23rd, 2023

For a long time they were able to keep the choice to candidates where it did not matter who you voted for. But they had to dial bias in the media up to eleven, and credibility of the legacy media collapsed.

Elections were, and in some countries still are, relatively free and fair, because the candidates and parties have identical policies and an elaborate system to prevent any outsiders from gaining traction.

And when they could no longer keep voting irrelevant by soft power, resorted to increasingly blatant election stealing. Election stealing has been under way for a very long time, it is just that in 2020 it jumped the shark. Elections are going the way of the legacy media. Time for Caesar approaches, in part because people cease to believe in election outcomes, just as they ceased to believe the legacy media. The faith the Republic has been a delusion for over a century, and now the delusion collapses. The faith dies before our eyes. The media legacy jumped the shark, and now elections are jumping the shark.

Elections have not mattered for a very long time. But for a while soft power was sufficient to keep them irrelevant. The public was manipulated by the methods that have now become obvious, and the elected officials were manipulated by the methods depicted in “Yes minister”, and “Yes Prime Minister” – which methods worked on Trump well enough to outrage us, but because Trump actually tried to govern, failed badly enough to outrage the deep state.

When Trump was president, his influence over the presidency was insignificant. He enraged them by attempting to govern. Most politicians do not even try. Recall that one of the grounds for impeachment was that president was interfering in foreign policy and speaking to foreign leaders. Kim had the same problem — Kim and Trump had to set up channels of communication where the president protected his communications with Kim from the presidency, and Kim similarly. They hate to lose a frozen conflict. Kim’s bureaucrats have more in common with our bureaucrats than either have with their leader or their nation. Similarly, when the Soviet Union was a going concern, but showing signs of imminent collapse, you saw President Reagan trying to collapse the Soviet Union, and the presidency trying to prop it up. They loved their cold war. They like national conflicts for the same reason as they send the shills onto Gab to make trouble within the alt right. They play both ends against the middle.

Notice that Trump always praises foreign leaders, even though his base does not like it. He flatters them, because he wants to work with them peacefully, and deep state does not like it, because they want to work with the bureaucrats of other countries against the leaders and peoples of those countries. Hence their love of frozen conflicts.

They fear that if President Trump is elected, he will interfere in the government. As the conflict between the deep state and the nations that they govern has become ever more severe, the old soft methods are failing. When they went after Sheriff Joe and General Flynn, they put naked violence on the table, as did the Senate of Rome when it killed the Gracchi brothers. You cannot return to a republic after that. Pandora’s box has been opened, and what has escaped cannot be stuffed back in again.

Having resorted to more extreme methods, naked violence against officers of the Republic and naked theft of elections against the people, these method remain on the table, rendering the old soft power methods irrelevant. If Trump or similar becomes president, he can only exercise authority by using such methods.

“Yes Minister” is a story about soft power methods. Sneakily manipulative, but very civilised. But if the bureaucrat in that story, Sir Humphrey Appleby, employed naked violence, well then, the other power holder in that story, Jim Hacker, would have to employ naked violence also. And, of course, no one rules alone. In real life, there are a lot more than two players. If you have a poker game, and one player pulls a gun, everyone has to pull a gun.

Trump said “Pandora’s box has been opened”. So, though mired deep in normality bias, he is not so old that he cannot see. This is the new normal. Everyone can see. There is no going back. The time for Kings has come. In the event that Trump is allowed to be elected, the old normal will not return.