Bitcoin time

October 23rd, 2021

I have been diversifying from Bitcoin to ADA, because I was profoundly unhappy with Bitcoins scalability, and with its implementation of the lightning network, and I recommended that other people do so.

This turned out to be a bad idea.

The bitcoin lightning network substantially eases the scaling problem for an order of magnitude or two growth, after which scalability is likely to start biting again.

The bitcoin lightning network’s problems appeared to be insoluble to me, because of the way bitcoin works, and because I was just not seeing the will or coherent organization needed to fix them.

The taproot update to bitcoin, however, makes it possible to fix the lightning network, and suggests the existence of will and organization capable of fixing it, and with intent to do so. I conjecture that the recent rise in bitcoin is substantially driven by this prospect.

The biggest immediate problem with the lightning network is unrelated to the issues that taproot addresses: backup. Backup of your lightning network is broken, unless you are merely the client of some big node,.

The big point and big value proposition of cryptocurrency is that you don’t have to suffer client status, with all its grave costs, dangers, and inconveniences. It is client status that is the problem that bitcoin was originally created to fix.

To recover your lightning wallet you need both the master secret and the current state of your lightning wallet. Which you probably lost in the crash. Backups will not work, because the state of your lightning wallet, unless you are a mere client of a single important node, is likely to change frequently and unpredictably. The current backup solutions are a collection of complicated half assed workarounds which are likely to mostly work most of the time, provided you know who all your counterparties are, they are still around, and they are honest, well behaved, and well intentioned.

The correct solution is that every time your wallet state changes, it should send a copy of the state change, not the entire state, just the change in state, encrypted with a secret that only the possessor of the master secret can generate, to a couple of backups in the cloud.

Then if your lightning wallet crashes, you could recreate it from your master secret by re-running all the state changes from the beginning.

I don’t know why this was not implemented. Perhaps it is just that they had, and have, more pressing problems to deal with, but now that there is substantial, and rapidly growing, money in the lightning network it becomes a lot more pressing. I intend to go lightning, once backup is adequately addressed, and am going back to bitcoin right now.

Gold, crypto currency, and hyperinflation

September 19th, 2021

The fed is printing a pile of money, and what is happening to that money is as obscured and obfuscated as the claims about inflation.

We have for some time been seeing shortages of critical products, typically special products with sticky prices. A contractor cannot get his final payment for lack of a three hundred dollar part, and goes bankrupt. These shortages are increasing and we are now starting to see shortages of basic products, the most basic of them all being labor itself, and very high inflation in products that do not have sticky prices, such as lumber. This prefigures a lot of inflation already baked into the cake, which inflation will greatly exceed inflationary expectations, which are low due to normality bias. There has been quite a lot of inflation lately, considerably exceeding inflationary expectations. The shortages and the inability to maintain monetary discipline which underlies those shortages prefigure a great deal more inflation, exceeding inflationary expectations even further.

Hat tip Pseudo-Chrysostom for the image.

The official inflation numbers have long been detached from reality. They have now, rather suddenly, become rather more seriously detached. They are about to rapidly become a great deal more detached.

The underlying cause is collapse of cohesion and discipline among the elite. They are just unable to stop all sorts of people helping themselves to the printing press, which lack of control and discipline prefigures hyper inflation – not tomorrow, not probably next month, probably not next year or the year after, but not far off.

Hyperinflation does not happen all at once. It starts with wave of startlingly bad inflation, then a wave of relative stability, and people think normality has returned. But it has not. There is another wave, and another, each with more inflation than the last, each with more rapid inflation than the last, and the waves coming closer and closer together, finally blending into one continuous wave until no one knows what prices should be, and the money just stops being useful.

Asset prices are inflating, as people with access to easy money buy real assets, but in the final stages of inflation, asset prices no longer keep up with inflation, because the money ceases to be useful as a measure of value, and assets are illiquid. Someone has a trillion dollars, is not sure whether he should invest in a house with it buy or a hamburger. He is hungry, so he buys the hamburger.

Gold and crypto is hedge against hyperfinflation. Anyone who buys bitcoin intending to sell it for fiat money is a fool,, because investing with the intent of selling presupposes that it is a bubble. Outsiders cannot profit from a bubble. You cannot get out of a bubble sooner than everyone else, because by the time you know it is time to get out, everyone also knows it. (Unless of course the government is the buyer of last resort, or is funding wetbacks with no id, no income, no job, and no assets to take out million dollar mortgages, as in the great Minority Mortgage Meltdown) The primary argument for bitcoin is that fiat is a bubble, hence the hodl strategy. Pay no attention to the latest news, because you know the final destination. Dips are a buying opportunity, assuming the hodler noticed the dip, which he probably did not.

When one does book keeping and accounting, one wants the entries in the assets and liabilities column to be as directly as possible connected to real things that have real value. In contrast, the fed balance sheet is unreadable, and its flows incomprehensible – this has gone beyond normal government incompetence and looks more and more like three card monte. The budget and the debt limit and all that have become as meaningless and irrelevant as the Queen travelling in a stage coach to open the British Parliament.

Silver, these days, is an industrial metal. In the long depression, it was spontaneously demonetized, because people used banks and banknotes for small transactions, and it has been steadily demonetizing further and further. In a hyperfinflation, it might remonetize for transactions of moderate size, but I don’t think so. Crypto currency renders it irrelevant.

The real value of silver relative to other resources, like oil and iron, is likely to remain approximately stable, but as people see what is coming, the real value of crypto and gold, relative to resources and goods, is rising, with crypto rising far faster than gold. If, as I think likely, crypto currency results in the demonetization of gold, gold is going to fall in real value relative to resources and goods a very long way, while silver will remain relatively stable. Stability sounds good, but you will not be able to buy food, guns, and ammo with it.

Elections and voting

September 10th, 2021

Democracy died on 2020-11-04, so I have been paying no attention to elections, electoral integrity laws, and all that.

But, due to normalcy bias, lots of people have:

In the run up before the 2020-11-03 election, the Democrats massively escalated all their regular routine fraud, sufficient to deal with a massive Trump landslide.

But instead of a massive Trump landslide, they got a colossal Trump landslide, so in the early hours of the morning of 2020-11-04, halted the counting, and proceed with hasty, panicked, and incompetent last minute fraud. Which last minute fraud was only applied to the federal election results, with the result that a lot of states went Republican at the state level.

And, theoretically, the states control the election process. So those freshly minted Republicans think they are onto a good thing. So, a bunch of election integrity laws.

Also, a whole lot of laws against critical race theory.

The laws on critical race theory appear to be having absolutely no effect. Law has ceased to matter. The laws on election integrity are likely to be similarly ignored. Only Republican scrutineers backed by physical violence are likely to have a significant effect on election outcomes. To attain a fair and honest electoral outcome, Republicans would need to deploy the methods that Julius Caesar and the NSDAP used attain a fair and honest electoral outcome. Such methods are likely to produce a fair election only once.

But it looks like the Republicans are going to try another ride on this merry go round. It will may well be their last ride. I count my survival prospects much better than theirs.

Extent of Clot Shot sequelae

September 5th, 2021

Poster girl principle:
If the poster girl for some cause (Emmett Till, Madam Curie) is fake, the cause is fake – we are being pushed to pay attention to something that does not exist. No plausibly innocent negroes were lynched (ever, anywhere in the United States), there are no female scientists.

News blackout principle:
If some event that is cause for concern and alarm is being suppressed, there is one hell of a lot of it and you should be concerned and alarmed. When the Facebook Covid-19 vaccine side effects group was shut down, you knew that there were massive numbers of people suffering adverse affects from the vaccine. The blackout principle is far more reliable than any number of statistics.

The Vaers reporting system is reporting far more adverse vaccination events for the Clot Shot than for any other vaccine ever – but the Vaers reporting system is official science, and if science is official, it is not science – the scientific method was defined by the Skeptical Chymist, which definition was adopted by the invisible college and then endorsed and socially enforced by the King when he made the invisible college in to the very visible Royal Society, is that official science is not only unreliable, but wicked.

We have no end of examples of official science lying about statistics, and it is likely that Vaers is under reporting by a very large factor.

How big a factor?

Well, people are not dying like flies, but they are dying at in unusual numbers. We are seeing a lot of anecdotal serious consequences among friends of friends, in the news, unusual numbers of high profile deaths, healthy athletes, airline pilots suddenly dying, sometimes in flight, prominent people. I have long said that we will know how lethal the clot shot is when it shows up in excess young mortality

Graph deleted due to lack of provenance for the data


“Our reanalyses of these data explain why during the massive vaccination project initiated mid-December 2020 during a confinement, daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases failed to decrease as they do during confinements, and, more importantly, why numbers of serious, critical, and death cases increased during that period that covered at least one month. From mid-December to mid-February (two months), 2,337 among all Israeli 5,351 official COVID-deaths occurred. Our analyses indicate orders of magnitude increases in deaths rates during the 5-week long vaccination process, as compared to the unvaccinated and those after completing the vaccination process. Presumably, asymptomatic cases before vaccination, and those infected shortly after the 1st dose, tend to develop graver symptoms than those unvaccinated.”
“The Ynet article is organized in an exciting way and uses data provided in an erroneous way by the Ministry of Health. It is unclear whether this was intentional to prove the vaccine’s efficiency or if this was done erroneously because the provided data were misunderstood. Note that in Israel, all vaccines are from Pfizer.

“The data in the table, rather than indicating the vaccine efficacy, indicate the vaccine’s adverse effects,”

It is not huge, but it is significant. This is our earliest data, and when we have better data, likely to be considerably bigger, but it is still not going to be huge even when we have better data. This is not the zombie apocalypse, but it is mass human sacrifice to the Awesome, Holy, and Mighty Covid Demon.

It looks like mortality attributed to China flu is remarkably high in the forty days following the first clot shot. Which is what we would expect if mortality and China flu/Clot shot sequalae are due to circulating spike protein. The Clot shot is dosed so that most people do not suffer immediate and obvious harm, but if you have China flu and the clot shot, you get a higher dose of circulating spike protein than planned. And you already have, from the clot shot, the highest mostly safe dose. More on top of that, you get into much more dangerous territory.

I would really like to get data on Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), not because it is a major vaccine sequel, but because it is normally very rare, so should stick out in the data like dogs balls. I am hearing a lot of anecdotal reports of people getting very weak and falling over. I expect we would see an epidemic of Guillain-Barré, if the extent of Guillain-Barré was not being suppressed. But the primary threat is the diverse consequences of blood vessel inflammation, blood vessel inflammation in the heart just being those cases that get specific diagnoses, and inflammation of the brain only getting specific diagnosis when the victim is dropping dead. If your heart is inflamed, you are probably inflamed all over, including lungs, brain, liver, and kidneys. We are not getting the whole picture when the sequelae get shoe horned into inflammation of one particular organ. Inflammation of the lungs means the victim cannot walk very far without getting out of breath. We are hearing a lot of that anecdotally. Inflammation of the brain leaves the victim in a fog. We are hearing a lot of that anecdotally, but it is not getting diagnoses, it is not being recorded in official science. And inflammation of the liver and kidneys has no immediate consequences, but is likely to have severe and eventually fatal long term consequences, leading to deaths that cannot be clearly attributed to the vaccine, or anything else in particular.

But the big problem is not lethality, but adverse affects – People get sick, stay sick. A few of those sick people die, but the vast majority of them are just chronically ill. We don’t have a handle on how many have serious and lasting ill effects.

We have anecdotes, but we don’t know how serious and common these anecdotes are:

But in the long run, the biggest problem we face is not that after a long series of faulty, ineffective and dangerous vaccines, we now have vaccine that is a lot less effective and a lot more dangerous, but that if they are sacrificing large numbers of people to the to the Awesome, Holy, and Mighty Covid Demon, pretty soon they are going to be ripping out people’s hearts on pyramids and rolling the bodies down the pyramid steps to be eaten by the congregation. The official faith has tasted blood, and it is appetite is only just beginning. The historical record is that once the official faith wants humans sacrificed to its idols, it is going to want a lot more humans sacrificed to a lot more idols.

What our enemies revealed in the fall of Kabul

September 4th, 2021

Newt Gingrich: “Sad not a single women’s group on the left is up in arms about Afghanistan.”

Of course not. Feminism and female emancipation is merely a shit test, and women love men who pass their shit tests, and hate men who fail them.

Reflect on the savage hatred that feminists bear against Greek letter fraternities and rich and famous movie producers who fail to rape them, with their eager and enthusiastic response to Rotherham and the Cologne rape festival: “Refugees welcome.” “We are not your women.”

If you read between the lines of the Rotherham stories, it is seems that the very young girls being raped and threatened were strangely difficult to help and protect when family members tried to help and protect them.

As the collapse began, but before the Officially Unofficial Press acknowledged that Kabul had fallen, I saw talking heads displaying awareness that this was a holy war, and awareness that you have to bring a gun to a gunfight and a faith to a holy war.

The people of Afghanistan, we were repeatedly told, loved Globohomo, democracy, and feminism, and would fight for it.

Events proved that the Afghan army would not fight for Globohomo.

They brought a faith to a holy war, but it was revealed that Satanic faiths are not very useful in holy wars.

UK Variants concern VOC technical briefing 17

August 31st, 2021

There is some controversy over what the UK Variants concern VOC technical briefing 17 shows about the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Several sources claimed that table five of UK Variants concern VOC technical briefing 17 showed vaccination made you more likely to die of China Flu

“Fact checkers” said that table five said no such thing, and indeed when I looked at it, table five was about something totally unrelated.

But strangely, table four said much the same thing, in a different breakdown of the same data as the alleged table five allegedly used to cover.

From which I conclude that the document has changed, and is likely to change yet again.

Official version I downloaded

Official version right now (Which when last checked, has not yet changed from the version I downloaded.)

Page Fourteen:  Deaths classified as Covid deaths for the period under analysis:  Vaccinated seventy deaths, unvaccinated forty four deaths.

The vaccine is well known to give no protection against mild cases of the disease.  This data does not suggest it gives any protection against serious cases of the disease.

Because the data in table four is broken down differently to the alleged table five, one cannot say whether vaccination is greater risk or lower risk, but it is clearly no big improvement, and may well make things worse, which is consistent with its failure to provide any discernible protective effect against mild infections or the likelihood of spreading mild infections.

Of course another explanation is that vaccination has no effect on death rate, because there is no death rate.

A ninety year old man goes into a clinic, because he is worried that his anticancer medication is aggravating his heart failure, liver failure, and kidney failure. They ask him about Covid symptoms,like they ask everyone else.  He has a blocked nose.  They swab his nose, find covid, but he is not running a temperature.  Five days later, his nose is no longer blocked.  Twenty seven days later he is hit by a truck, and bits splattered all over the place.

He gets counted in the above table..

Lethality of vaccination

August 30th, 2021

When driving, I got tired of the CD, and turned on the radio, to hear the voice of authority calling on the public to report doctors who doubt the vax, or who prescribe safe and effective drugs for Covid, to the medical malpractice board.

This sort of thing makes it difficult to get data.  When you search the internet, nothing comes up except a storm of absurd and outrageous official lies, but I ran into the following posted on Gab.

Total US army deaths from covid itself, over the entire time it has been around, about twenty.

US army deaths and sequelae of vaccination that are likely to be lethal per day, about fifty.

This is roughly what I was expecting from anecdotal data.

The fall of the Republic

August 28th, 2021

PJ Media correctly observes of the botched and disorderly retreat from Afghanistan:

This ensures that the catastrophe, rather than diminishing, has only just begun. It will not end when the last qualified person leaves Kabul but when the U.S. political system has found a constitutional way to clean house.

Compare and contrast with the orderly and dignified Soviet retreat from Aghanistan.

A constitutional house cleaning is unlikely to be practical, since a necessary step in that cleansing would be tarring and feathering the judges at every level and dragging them through the streets.

The chaos of America’s disorderly retreat suggests that the end of the Republic is closer than the fall of communism was when Russia retreated from Afghanistan. Communism fell eleven years after retreat from Afghanistan, suggesting that the rotting zombie corpse of the Republic will fall soon enough.

A republic can only exist with a virtuous ruling elite. But because the elite in a Republic necessarily relies on flattery and on bribing factions of the voters with the voters own money, and because the elite inevitably expands the franchise to voters ever less competent and knowledgeable, elite virtue inevitably declines.

Once a Republic has openly rigged elections, it is unlikely to recover. There is a high risk of a long period of darkness with elites killing each other, terminated either by a virtuous King who creates a virtuous elite to staff his administration, or, more likely, a foreign elite coming in, enslaving American males and banging American women.

The Soviet experience would suggest that collapse is imminent, but it seems to me that woke has considerably more life in it now than communism did back then.

Where we are now

August 15th, 2021

A survey of the talking heads talking about the fall of Kabul confirms that our major military objective in Afghanistan was to teach nine year old girls to put a condom on a banana.

I am happy about the fall of Kabul, because Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires. It is where empires go to die, but don’t make the mistake of thinking that the enemy of your enemy is your friend.

We face two live faiths that hate us and want us to die, progressivism and Islam. The Taliban hates you and wants you to die almost as much as our government does. In this case, the enemy of your enemy is definitely not your friend.

Then there is Xi thought, the Chinese state religion. It is walking dead, like the faith of the Soviet Union after Stalin, a zombie, irreparably rotting and falling apart. Xi is trying to revive it with an infusion of Marxism, and is currently allied with progressives in America against Americans, while at war with their muppets and sock puppets closer to his borders, taking advantage of disunity and corruption within the American elite. At the moment, the left that is in his pocket is in the saddle within America, and is comfortable letting the American empire fall back. But the left that is not in his pocket is getting steamed about the collapse of empire.

I hope that Xi will turn right to Confucianism. Trying to revive Marxism as the Chinese State Religion is not going well for him. It’s dead, Jim.

In Russia, protected by Putin’s nukes, Christianity is returning from the dead. It is good at returning from the dead. But while no longer dead, is not altogether alive yet. Still has merely the aliveness of a mustard seed.

Holy war is coming, and you need to take a gun to a gunfight, and a faith to a holy war. Our best prospect for winning is the Christianity that is barely beginning to show tiny shoots of green in Russia.

Old Type Roman Catholicism is alive, and I wish it well, but the Pope is a heretic, an apostate, and a pagan, and the Vatican is in the pocket of the lavender mafia. This is a fatal weakness for a supranational centralized faith. It is a fatal weakness of supranationalism, universalism, and centralization. Always rots from the head down.

Worse, even Old Type Roman Catholicism is fatally blue pilled, and has been ever since it capitulated to the Troubadours. We need a state religion that is compatible with elite fertility, or else whites will disappear and the remnants will be wiggers.

Orthodoxy has the great advantage of being a coalition of national faiths.

When the Tsar conquered some place X that was not orthodox, he would install a King of X, and would send a Russian Orthodox priest from Russia to X to run their state religion, who would give a quick touch up spray paint job on the existing state religion of X to make it orthodox, declare himself X orthodox instead of Russian Orthodox, and fiercely defend the national prerogatives of the distinctive and significantly different national X Orthodox Church (The touch up job was seldom very thorough). The King of X installed by the Tsar would take orders from the Tsar, and the Russian priest installed the Tsar would take orders from that King, rather than directly from the Russian Orthodox Church in Moscow, but Russian Orthodoxy and X orthodoxy would remain in communion.

We have to replace our existing universalist state religion of progressivism and woke with a national and nationalist state religion, and Orthodoxy fits the bill better than old type Roman Catholicism, which is fatally and inherently blue pilled and fatally supranational.

Empires go to Afghanistan to die. They die not because Afghanistan is a tough nut to crack. It is easy to conquer Afghanistan. It is not very hard to rule Afghanistan. Imposing your State religion on it, is, however considerably harder, because you have to intrude the state into every nook and cranny, which is, in Afghanistan, extremely difficult. Successful governments in Afghanistan kept order and safety on Afghanistan’s primary asset (the crossroads of central Asia) and let the rest slide, relying on the roads across Afghanistan as their primary, and often their only, source of revenue, and political and economic power. Unsuccessful empires in Afghanistan went there to impose their universal state religion, and forgot about the roads linking central Asia. In our case, forgot about the roads, pipelines, internet, and electricity grid linking central Asia.

Defeat in Afghanistan was foreshadowed by the fact that the Afghan internet is an outlying branch of the American internet. A competent empire would have made it the central node of the central Asian internet so that it could spy on the network traffic. If the war had been run competently, everyone along the roads linking central Asia would find themselves with good internet connections, and everyone near the roads would find a good internet connection on their cell phones, with a short ping time to all of central Asia.

Keeping the roads open, orderly, and safe is the sort of thing that empires are good at and can easily do. Getting nine year old girls woke is pushing muck uphill, and empires go to Afghanistan to die because they are pushing muck uphill.

Kabul has fallen

August 14th, 2021

It has not quite officially fallen yet, at least not officially as I post, but this is normality bias, plus the fact that it is taking a while for the Taliban leadership to move from Pakistan to Kabul.

Due to normality bias, six thousand US troops are due to arrive, and six hundred British troops are arriving, which could result in interesting events, as official reality encounters actual guns, in the hands of people who neglect to read official sources about official reality.