The energy crisis happened because of optimistic projections – that gas to liquid and coal to liquid would not be needed until the technology had been improved and the cost brought down, that the dramatic growth in China and India could be accommodated by rapidly expanding conventional oil production. The political elite, unable to introduce a carbon tax because it would directly and visibly hurt people, proceeded to block coal …
Category: economics
Rational Oil Prices
It seems that Arnold Kling has been in Afghan cave during the past six months. He does not seem to think that there has been any bad news on oil supply over the last six months. The recent run-up in oil prices represents a similar puzzle. I think that it’s difficult to tell a story for the rise in crude prices for the last six months that is based on …
Will DME save us from the oil crisis?
To satisfy world demand, as former third worlders become first worlders, and want cars and air conditioning, the world needs to increase production of oil and oil substitutes about three million barrels per day each year. Equivalently, the world needs to increase production one hundred and fifty million tonnes per year per year.
Predicting housing prices
the housing market in California has pretty much hit bottom, and the same is largely true in most of the places in the US where prices went up to the sky, then fell to earth
How to do health care right
The American health care system is socialism without a central plan, and capitalism without markets or prices.
More maths on oil
Demand is going to rise one hell of a lot. Supply for that demand just is not there.
Finally, some one else does the maths on oil
the price of oil will rise without limit until coal to oil and nuclear to hydrogen fills the gap. And right now, coal to oil projects are insignificant, and nuclear to hydrogen is not even on the drawing board.
This time they did ring a bell at the bottom
The bell has just rang to announce the bottom of the housing market in California.
Exxon blows it
Bryan Caplan wonders if oil prices are a bubble. When oil spikes abruptly, that means people made incorrect investment decisions – under invested in exploration, development, and gas to liquids conversion. A simple back of the envelope calculation tells me they are still under investing. Exxon recently abandoned gas to liquids plant that would be profitable if oil remains above forty dollars to fifty dollars a barrel. But if everyone …
Vote Obama
The presidents that have done the most to smash capitalism have never been Democrats, because anti capitalist Democrat presidents have always found themselves paralyzed by gridlock – the pro capitalist faction unites along party lines, and the federal government system locks up, as it was designed to do. The founding fathers intentionally constructed the federal government so that it would be slow and inefficient at making large controversial changes. The …