Ukraine still crumbling

Five months ago I said “Ukraine begins to crumble” and said it has about six months or so of men and material left, but cautiously qualified that incautious prediction by adding that I am endlessly surprised by the Ukraine’s ability to scrape up more men and material.

Well, it is now crumbling considerably faster, but does not look like it is going to fall in a month.

Russia has been fighting a war of attrition, while the Ukraine has been attempting to fight a war of maneuver. In a war of maneuver, the side with the greatest willingness to sacrifice men and material has a substantial advantage. In a war of attrition, not so much.

All things being equal, in a war of attrition, one’s casualties are roughly inverse to ones numbers. If one has half as many men, one has twice as many casualties. If the enemy has twice as much men and material, one has twice the casualties. So as a war of attrition draws to a close, the losing sides casualties mount faster and faster, and the winning side’s casualties mount slower and slower. The Ukraine is now suffering casualties about twice as fast as it was five months ago, Russia about half as fast.

So the Ukraine is probably going to last longer than a month. But not a whole lot of months.

In Kursk, the Ukraine had a big success, in that it was able to attain war of maneuver, grabbing a whole lot of land without having to shell every farmhouse, ever ditch, and every grove of trees, without men dying for every ruin, every ditch, and every tree. But war of maneuver does you no good, unless you can grab what the enemy cannot afford to lose. The Ukrainian Kursk offensive resembles the German spring offensives of 1918. Realising they were losing the war of attrition, the Germans attempted to resume war of maneuver. And succeeded. But the maneuvers did not actually reach anywhere that mattered all that much, so that a decisive tactical victory for the Germans was also a decisive strategic defeat for the Germans.

Exactly four months after the end of their 1918 spring offensives, the Germans agreed to hand over their heavy weapons and disband their army. And they agreed to that because they were losing their heavy weapons and their army was disbanding itself. Since the Ukraine is run from Washington and Massachusetts, there will probably be no armistice. Rather, its army is just going to vanish.

The Russian response to the Kursk offensive was to create a defensive line alarmingly close to Kursk, and alarmingly far from the Ukrainian border, effectively conceding a very substantial amount of ground to the Ukrainians, allowing the Ukrainians a big tactical success, but ensuring a strategic Russian victory. The line would have put Kursk and the nuclear power plant potentially within range of Ukrainian artillery, but cities and nuclear power plants can soak up a whole lot of artillery.

The Kursk offensive was a big black eye for the Russians, but Putin did not allow it to distract him from the goal of eliminating Ukrainian military capability.

The there are a number of proposals for Nato escalation, for more direct Nato involvement, which are likely to lead to Russian measures to escalate against Nato — for example by Russians launching Russian missiles against American ships and bases from the territories of Russian proxies. Sweden and Blinken seem to be trying to start World War III, while Poland and the Pentagon are screaming “Stop!”

The Neocons insist that Russia must be defeated and seen to be defeated, in order that Russia can be color revolutioned, but a nuclear power cannot be defeated, merely forced to accept an unsatisfactory stalemate. Attempt to defeat a nuclear power, the nukes will fly. Something like the Minsk accords is a reasonable stalemate outcome, but the problem there is that Washington is not agreement capable, so I doubt that something like the Minsk accords are possible, even if everyone agrees that they are less bad than the alternative. Regardless of the outcome in the Ukraine, the drift toward World War III is likely to continue.

War is easy, peace is hard, in the sense that falling off a cliff is easy, climbing a cliff is hard. Large scale cooperation is difficult.

To accomplish peace, need a leader who can say “peace with the outgroup”, and everyone is at peace with the outgroup, and anyone in the ingroup who is unpeaceful gets sent to the outgroup, possibly in pieces. and who can say “war with the outgroup”, and everyone is at war, or hangs as a traitor.

The west lacks that kind of leadership. If Kamala is installed she will no more be the leader than Biden was. If Trump is allowed to be elected, it will be difficult for him to become the real leader short of sending numerous members of the elite to the Pacific in black helicopters for long distance swimming lessons.

117 Responses to “Ukraine still crumbling”

  1. The Cominator says:

    https://x.com/RetroCoast/status/1835749036122407346
    Don’t know if this was true and I thought the feds had the shooter but apparently I was wrong. Apparently Florida cops took in the shooter… DeSantis has ordered that he not be transferred to federal custody. Very good…

    • dave says:

      competing factions among the praetorian guards.

      • Dr. Faust says:

        Negative. The Sheriff and the FBI are not equivalent. They are opposed forces ostensibly joined by the Constitution. In any war the Feds will be on one side and the Sheriffs on the other.

        • dave says:

          late republic era, every imperator has their own praetorians. De Santis bringing his praetorians in behind Trump. When Trump wins he will select new leaders of the SS from loyal cadres in red states, effectively bringing in his praetorians. Or the SS can figure out what time it is and ave trump. But things may get interesting for awhile.

    • Dr. Faust says:

      J.D. Vance’s official x account.

      https://x.com/JDVance/status/1835823158957391923

      Was going to post a sample of the thread but I’m not. Read the post. It’s worth your tiime.

      • dave says:

        thats a fatality – Vance is skilled in both dialectic and rhetoric. This is both, but he ends on rhetoric.

      • Dharmicreality says:

        I read it in full and seems like a standard conservative appeal to authority “please can’t we just tone it down and get along; let’s all reject censorship and restore a functioning republic”, unfortunately the second attempt has shown that the left is intent on escalating and there is no capacity for agreement.

    • Dr. Faust says:

      Could be a great potential for whistleblowers to come forward. Think about what happens if the Sheriff starts questioning where the money came from. Follow the money and it’ll show you who was calling things from behind the curtain.

      Holy shit. We have video of this guy talking about his ideology. This is a fucking disaster for the elite. The man was completely motivated by leftist ideology.

      We have to turn this into something. The best I can come up with is making a meme. The man was completely motivated by leftist ideology.

      The Eye of Sauron can look anywhere.

    • Hesiod says:

      Saw this earlier pop up over on The Donald but then it silently faded away. Not finding anything aside from DeSantis announcing FL will do its own investigation.

      Did see the MSM discovered a new word today: apparent. Oh, and the narrative the apparent assassin apparently had delusions of apparent grandeur, so everything associated with him discovered in the aftermath is made up by him, apparently. Not an apparent glownigger, no sir.

  2. Reziac says:

    Ukraine’s Kursk offensive had a supply line of exactly one road, all of it in Russian territory.

    I’m surprised Russia didn’t just cut them off to the rear, or maybe they did and I haven’t heard.

    • jim says:

      The Ukraine has persistently followed a strategy of trying to cut off Russian troops. Russia has persistently followed a strategy of trying to almost cut off Ukrainian troops, so that it can slowly bleed them in their salient.

      The Ukraine keeps trying to follow war of maneuver strategies in a war of attrition. Russia is fighting attritively. Russia is not trying to get the Ukrainians out of the Kursk salient. It is trying to make it very expensive for them to hang around in the Kursk salient.

    • S says:

      The Russians are reclaiming territory that would let them cut off the western branch (leading to Korenevo) of the road; about 2 km to go.

      The primary connection west of Sudzha is about 15 km front the front.

      https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/83a2f24901c941d581c0c523ecd2619b

      • jim says:

        But they don’t want to go the remaining two kilometres. The would rather sit back and pick of enemy troops and equipment going in and out. They have been following this strategy ever since this turned into a war of attrition. They probably want to thirteen of those fifteen kilometres.

  3. Oscar C. says:

    Ukraine is growing war-weary, but Putin is very lucky that the West has only half-heartedly supported them. I follow mostly the French commentary on the issue and usually the pro-Russian side (Jacques Baud, Caroline Galacteros, Eric Denece…) tend to focus on the futility of Western support.

    Kissinger proved correct once again with his dictum that being America’s (ergo “The West”) friend can be fatal.

    • jim says:

      Nato is out of ammo. We are out of tanks that are in working order, out of shells, out of artillery tubes, have been asking allies to give back patriot missiles, out of ATACMs, and very short of military rifles.

      The west’s support of the Ukraine has left the west impossibly over extended for a land war — still have airsea assets, but the Houthi war in the Red Sea has significantly diminished airsea assets.

      It is impossible to send in significant Nato troops into the Ukraine, because disarmed.

      The west is reluctant to be similarly liberal with air assets, because of China and Taiwan.

      • white bread says:

        However, shortages of weapons in the west are not necessarily permanent. It may be the case that at the moment the M.I.C. only produces overpriced trash in small numbers, because of obvious blatant corruption, but that may change. Western oligarchs may keep escalating resulting in conventional war in europe, or simply nuclear war.

        • S says:

          We’ve seen how well they can pull that off with shell production. Despite having more nominal wealth and population, NATO is being outmatched by Russia.

        • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

          Fundamentally, the escalation of mass production would mean firing bitches, buggers, browns, and hiring straight white men instead

          Something which we can with some confidence say that the incumbent underlordship is constitutionally incapable of.

          So what are the implications of this? There are many incumbents, especially amongst the thermidoreans, who are shocked and horrified by their military weakness and industrial failure. They dearly desire to turn these trends around. But they also dare not speak plainly about its causes, and what can so turn it around. They dare not even think it, dare not even see or acknowledge it, even in the safety of their ‘own’ minds.

          They are sleepwalking into gehenna; are greatly distressed by the fact that gehenna is looming larger; yet cannot actually see the pathway to gehenna, or stop themselves from walking it; and so gehenna will come.

    • Me says:

      Absolute nonsense. The west has sent everything it reasonably can and more. Some nato members even sent every single artillery piece they had. Such enormous support for a proxy is completely unprecedented in history.

      “We built up this mountain of steel for the counteroffensive. We can’t do that again,” one former U.S. official said. “It doesn’t exist.” – https://archive.ph/epfji#selection-515.0-515.138

      Preempting “but it was old junk” – https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/top-shelf

      US propaganda pushes the lie that lend-lease won WW2, and yet, adjusted for inflation, they’ve sent far more to their proxy than they sent to the USSR and are still losing horribly.

  4. The Cominator says:

    https://x.com/FFT1776/status/1835688536105689398

    Lindsay Graham is the mole and traitor who leaked Trump’s schedule.

    The SS did not fail this time or let him get close that rules them out.

    Hannity is rather stupid and a boomercon with some neocon russia hating sympathies but he was zealous for Trump in 2016 probably more than anyone on tv and at a time when he was risking his career. Not a traitor IMHO.

    • DH says:

      You don’t earn the nickname “Lady G” for nothing.

    • c4ssidy says:

      I don’t understand how a random tweet from a random account is a source of information about current events. I understand people cannot namefag. But what sort of alternative is this? It is a single first name ‘Sherri’ with a face that can easily be AI. Who? How would they know? The obvious solution is to scroll down, and see if previous announcements about current affairs matched what was later revealed. Almost impossible (perhaps purposely) on this one as it is just thousands of thousands of retweets with statements like ‘Facts’, but I did get lucky by scrolling down the ‘highlights’ where a few days ago she announced that it was local police snipers, rather than secret service snipers, who shot Thomas Matthew Crooks. So obviously this is part of the bot filled, schizophrenic internet, where noise and reality become indistinguishable. At least with traditional homogenized news anchors and commentors, while there is a lot they cannot say, are still required practically to hesitate before saying the things that they can say. But this sounds like noise, churned out by what is probably pure machine, to farm clicks off the elderly

      • anonymous mouse says:

        Yep. X is full of fake news and conspiracy theories targeted at low IQ conservatives these days. The cat thing, ABC whistleblower, now Trump assassination conspiracy theories… if the choice is between this and the mainstream media, the mainstream media wins every time. And Elon promotes it. Shitshow.

        • DH says:

          Maybe if leftists weren’t literally bloodthirsty satanists, right-wingers wouldn’t be so quick to assume the worst about them. If there’s a known criminal in the neighborhood who is notorious for torturing pets, and one day you discover Mr. Whiskers hanging from a nearby lamppost with his head buried deep inside his rectum, like a hoop made of cat, who do you instinctively turn to?

        • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

          If it’s a choice beytween schizo noise bots and mainstream media, schizo noise bots win every time.

          • DH says:

            Exactly that.

            Schizo noise bots won’t laugh their asses off reporting that you’ve been gruesomely murdered. All they wanna do is beep boop beep beep boop. The leftist news anchors, on the other hand, seethe with rage and Literally Shake at your continued existence; the kikes, the dykes, the fags, the freaks, the thots, the troons, the sheboons, the niggity noggity – the anchors, commentators, and interviewees appearing on the television screen on those channels-to-hell literally want to rip your heart out of your chest and sacrifice it to Beelzebub.

            All of them, or as near to all of them as makes no difference, passionately promote — without necessarily having the integrity and perspicacity to even admit that to themselves — a mirror version of the Cominator Solution. They want all right-wingers everywhere dead, certainly all reactionaries. Also, they want all whites, all males, all heterosexuals, and all Christians dead. Even if it means that they themselves get eliminated in the process; especially if it means that – their death wish, upon others and upon themselves, is unmatched by that of any suicide bomber.

            Towards the singularity, leftism always becomes Sorathic evil.

            Their noise is anything but “random”; it is deliberately designed to harm you in every manner conceivable. It’s not “beep beep beep.” It’s “die die die.” Does anyone think they won’t throw wild parties if Trump is assassinated? They’ll be having coke-snorting and cock-sucking tournaments all night long.

            The scammers creating the schizo bots are motivated primarily by greed. The mainstream news anchors are motivated primarily by pride, envy, and wrath. Deaths of people like you put smiles on their faces.

        • Your Uncle Bob says:

          The cat thing is either already true, or will come true shortly enough after all. Does anyone seriously believe Haitians don’t already and never will start to eat pets and lake ducks?

          Which makes this particular call-and-response duo debunking it either a payload delivery or a black-pilled repeater station.

          Who knew cats and smug-fat boomers giving the “muh hard-working immigrants” mating call would be the crack in the wall that got the establishment running scared? But you have to be in the game to exploit the crack, and the tea-sipping “not independently verified” crowd want you out of the game.

        • Vendat Tunicam says:

          Have you answered the woman question? How about the cannibal question?

          Haitians are eating cats, soon enough they will be eating people. Using that to pivot to my new favorite hate-fact, the etymology of cannibal. Cannibal comes from Cannib or more commonly said Carrib, a tribe of people that gave the Caribbean Sea its name. This people attacked and ate their neighbors, the Arrawak or Taino people. After killing and roasting the men they would take the womenfolk back to their camp and use them as livestock to impregnate. When the pregnant women birthed the half-breed children they would seize the suckling babes and roast them as well.

          I think Christopher Columbus is a saint, not only did he discover the Americas, he put a stop to these satanic practices. For a long time I wondered why commies and shitlibs talked about “A People’s History of the United States” with such reverence. Well it’s because the cretin who wrote it never gave his audience the perfectly good reason for why Columbus enslaved and exterminated the Cannibs. Of course the historians purposefully write as if the Arrawak/Taino are the same as the Carrib/Cannib, though obviously nobody around at that time thought so. So can anonymous mouse or c4ssidy read what I wrote and explain in their own words the cover-up leftist historians have udone to besmirch St. Christopher Columbus’s good name?

          • The Cominator says:

            The rest of the country will not be able to peacefully deal with Haitians IMHO so yes eating dogs and cats + eventually people that shit will happen. The shitlibs will say that Florida incorporated them okay and it wasn’t that bad. The rest of the country isn’t Florida. For whatever reason (probably frontier justice plus just no progressives in power locally) Florida can keep the lid on diversity + proximity being war and it just handles having lots of minorities a lot better than other places.

            But other places just don’t do it very well.

            • Contaminated NEET says:

              Florida is ruled by the same fags, HR ladies, Jew lawyers, and prog bureaucrats as the rest of the country. Based Florida is just a marketing campaign. It’s a few steps ahead of most of the country on the road to Brasil Norte, that’s all.

          • C4ssidy says:

            In middle class Africa, Namibia for example, relatively stable and nice in some areas, it’s a common problem to have your family pet go missing because they get eaten by someone in the street who were not supposed to be in the neighbourhood, African Trayvon Martin types, but looking for pets instead of burglary. Among the Haitians and Ivory Coast types it goes a step further and you get actual humans being cooked in barrels on the side of the road during the power vacuums. if you dump these people on a random white town it would be inconceivable to have them not eat pets, you wouldn’t need reports

            When I was in Mexico City, the English and Spanish text on the temples were mostly saying the same thing, but not quite. The stuff about large scale human sacrifice (with a focus on the children) they didn’t bother translating. It is usually the domestic audience who insist on denying their past, but I suppose they know at some level the where the real blowback comes from, in particular regarding academic funding and prestige, any honest archaeologist picking up that it’s better to stick to talking about certain things in Spanish.

            When a schizo bot posts ‘BREAKING: [controversial event], what is the point of consuming that? Especially if you can scroll down and see obviously falsified controversial events announced a few days before? Meanwhile there is a science in getting some signal out of official lies, going back to soviet times, looking at particular things they avoid mentioning and so on, regardless of the hostile intentions behind them. There are other tech solutions of course. Just no value in a schizo noise bot for current affairs. If we don’t like the negatives of chain of custody down to facefag level then we only really have reputational mechanism. But these things have 100k followers, a mixture of other bots plus a few normal people with Alzheimer’s? I guess from a trust network perspective we would call it a node on a fake chain, 100k nodes endorsing each other as real without any significant connection to the material world

            • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

              A natural noble capable of sifting useful data from subversive meme weapons produced by enemy heretics without spiritual degradation would also be perfectly capable of sifting schizo signals from schizo noise, so that’s not really a responsive observation.

              • C4ssidy says:

                Did I do that by scrolling down the schizoid bot and finding that it is posting obvious falsehoods even two days ago? It took a lot of time because the account is cluttered with reposts rather than actual statements. Upon finding it, was pissed off. Why should I have to play the role of a janitor? It wasn’t me who brought up a schizoid boomer bot as a cited reference

                • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                  Here’s the bottom line: there are only a handful of people that knew Trump was going to be on that golf course at that time on that day. Which means that one of them told that to mr. ‘randomly appearing lone gunman’, either directly or through the conspiracy they are all entangled in.

                  If you want make an argument about how great your masters are compared to the wild west, you would be well served to find examples where you are not wrong first. Kind of undercuts the impact of the point you see.

  5. The Cominator says:

    This tranny maybe rogue glownigger wrote a book too.
    https://web.archive.org/…/Ukraines…/dp/B0BX4W9XKT/

    He advocated a nuclear 1st strike on Russia. Oh also he hates all religions but just nukes everything… he is the male equivalent to Victoria Nuland and the other worst type of demonic childless cat ladies.

    • jim says:

      Arrested multiple times on serious charges, somehow no jail time, no job, and no shortage of money. Works for an organisation (Azov) that has had CIA and State Department patronage, supervision, and control, since the end of World War II.

      It is certainly possible that he did this on his own initiative, or on the initiative of Azov or the Ukraine. As the Ukrainian government goes down the scuppers, it is getting more radical, and is increasingly acting in ways that alarms many of its patrons. But all these elements are in each others pockets, and in the pocket of the State Department.

      But the sixty lawsuits against Trump are similarly a government operation that obviously not everyone in the government supports — the government is acting less and less as one entity.

      He had a pile of electronic gear to communicate with sponsors. What do you bet we get the same mysterious blackout on his electronics as we got with the Butler PA sniper, and the congressional committee displays a similar lack of interest in subpoenaing that data?

      • The Cominator says:

        I think if it were sanctioned in the same way the Butler assassination attempt was sanctioned there is no way he would be taken alive and they would have arranged to get him in closer without interference. Oswald only got taken into custody at all because he killed the 1st guy sent to kill him (Tippit) he managed to kill but then he got killed by a dying cancer patient. Tippit was supposed to be the guy who killed Oswald but Oswald killed him 1st.

        Now its possible Ukraine tried to arrange this though without getting FBI/DHS approval though.

      • The Cominator says:

        And just remember that for now this guy is still alive. Too bad the feds got him before the Florida police though…

        • Dr. Faust says:

          I’d love to see DeSantis pull rank and charge him under Florida law but that’s unlikely. Rumors are he’ll be charged federally for firearms possession.

          • The Cominator says:

            The problem is even if DeSantis charges him the feds don’t have to transfer custody.

    • jim says:

      If he was a rogue, we will soon learn what was on his electronic gear.

      I predict we will not, that the Golf sniper’s electronics will suffer the same mysterious fate as the Butler PA sniper’s electronics.

  6. Yul Bornhold says:

    Am hearing from Ukrainian friends that Ukrainian ruralites think the war will wrap up in January. Apparently, it’s what everyone over there is saying.

  7. white bread says:

    Is the US empire somehow out of control? What kind of victory over Russia are the jew-neocons trying to achieve? If they start seriously bombing Russia they are likely to get their eurotrash accomplices/vassals bombed in return. Is that what they want? At first sight the neocon plans to succesfully attack Russia and China are insanely stupid. Even their genocide in Palestine isn’t going too well. But I also have to admit that they managed to turn the region of Ukraine against Russia and are causing a lot of damage. So, what’s next?

    • Contaminated NEET says:

      The only thing they know how to do is escalate.

    • Cloudswrest says:

      What makes you think “victory over Russia” is the end goal?

      Maybe the end goal is the destruction of the White West, and they are using Russia and the Ukrainian war as a vehicle for this. A means to an end.

      • white bread says:

        Well, I think that wall street plans to destroy and dismember Russia and turn it into a bunch of vassal states is pretty much in the open. I’m not sure how the war in ukraine would destroy the white part of the west though. It is sadly destroying white slavs in ukraine and Russia, but that at least that’s contained for now.

        • S says:

          In Terminator 2, Skynet attacked Russia so the counterstrike would destroy its enemies at home.

          Same idea but with ‘flee and laugh as everyone dies’ instead of ‘build robot army using slaves’ as the next step.

        • jim says:

          > wall street plans to destroy and dismember Russia and turn it into a bunch of vassal states is pretty much in the open

          They remember the 1990s looting of Russia, and want to resume where they left off.

          Old type capitalism creates wealth. Finance capitalism destroys and consumes wealth. This is why the US is poor and getting poorer. The problem with the US economy is now visible from several thousand feet as you fly into the airport.

          Looking out the window of the plane, it is entirely unsurprising that American logistics are unable to match Russian logistics.

    • S says:

      The war traces back to the coup, the coup traces back to trying to cut Russia off from Syria, Syria traces back to the Arab Spring and the Arab Spring was crazy from the start.

  8. Hesiod says:

    Second assassination attempt on Trump happened at a Florida golf course earlier today. Details still murky.

    • A2 says:

      “Trump rushed to safety as Secret Service opens fire on man with AK-47 near golf course”

      https://nypost.com/2024/09/15/us-news/shooting-reported-at-donald-trumps-golf-club-while-ex-president-was-on-grounds/

      Presumably not an innocent stroller or jogger who just happened to be at the wrong place at the wrong time with the wrong side arm.

    • DH says:

      Can the left really afford four years of the Orange Hitler backed by Thermidor? Will they really let Musk, who probably hasn’t read this blog just yet, but who will likely stumble across it sometime in 2025, to try and save Western Civilization from some backroom in the WH? C’mon, man.

    • DH says:

      And their goal should be to assassinate him before election day, because they believe that it would be easier to steal the election from Vance than from Trump. Not much point assassinating him when he’s already been elected and Vance could step in and replace him. It’s going to be a wild ride from here on.

    • The Cominator says:

      The Butler, PA attempt was 100% a glownigger inside job. This really does sound like a lone nut. He was not anywhere close to effective range and no bullet got near Trump it sounded like.
      Still the left wants to normalize assassination attempts.

      • Hesiod says:

        If social media results match the name released for the suspect, he is a bog-standard baizuo obsessed with saving Ukraine from a Drumpf/Putler alliance. Might simply have sought an everlasting name as He Who Saved Democracy. Supposedly in the hands of the FBI now.

        • The Cominator says:

          If it really is the Ryan Routhe guy he definitely glows but it sounds like he was acting as a rogue… as he wasn’t provided with an opening to easily kill Trump like the Butler, PA attempt.

            • Dr. Faust says:

              CNN already attributing it to the “lone gunmen” effect who for no reason in particular and with no political affiliation goals or motive decided that he hated golf courses and sand and decided to exhibit he 2a rights while fishing for alligator.

              I can’t tell if Trump is brave stupid or compromised.

              • Hesiod says:

                NBC’s Lester Holt drew a connection between the assassination attempt and Trump and Vance “lying” about Haitian culinary practices in Ohio. As several wits on the nets have observed, we’re approximately four weeks from the MSM declaring not eating pets is white supremacy according to past narrative shifts.

              • Pseudo-Chrysotom says:

                It’s easy for someone suffering from normality bias to renormalize themselves back into complacency, even when they get the shock of their life, if things on paper are not substantially detracted as a result. “Because they tried to kill me but failed, there’s no way they would dare to make a serious attempt again.”

                Out of all the Good and the Great of Rome, only Octavian, who was but a teenager – and largely also because he was but a teenager – was spiritually capable of fully engaging in terms of the new normal.

                • Pax Imperialis says:

                  Truly, it must be divine providence that Trump has dodged not one but two bullets (figuratively speaking), but even God must have limits. When will Trump figure out that being out in large open areas with government security apparatus might not be so great for his health?

                  Octavian only happened after about a century of failure to recognize the new normal. America is not Rome, we might not have a century to come to grasp the new normal.

              • jim says:

                Yes. Glows brightly. Obvious CIA asset.

                But this time around, the Secret Service did not play ball.

                Their apparatus for bumping off inconvenient politicians is obviously divided against itself, and the fact that they are engaging it would suggest that their apparatus for stealing elections is also divided against itself.

                • Cloudswrest says:

                  I think the best way to think of Federal Government is as an official organization infested with enemy moles. They don’t have to get “directly” involved. They just tip off contacts as to where Trump is going to be, etc.

      • jim says:

        Could be both. Looking at the security people around Trump in the Butler PA attempt, and the security people around Trump in recent appearances, looks like there has been a purge of Trump’s security detail. Thus the golf course operation could have been an inside operation that was not allowed inside.

        On a golf course, Trump walks around over a large area. So the assassin should get into cover near an upcoming hole, and wait for Trump to get nearer, and the security detail needs to check out the potential sniper nests before Trump approaches. Which they did at the golf course, and did not do at Butler.

        Butler was an FBI operation with cover inside the secret service. The golf course operation could have been an FBI operation — Ryan Routhe looks like FBI — but without cover inside the secret service, or with cover that failed.

      • DH says:

        Still the left wants to normalize assassination attempts.

        Already normalized. If they successfully assassinate him, the assassin will be declared a martyr-for-democracy and celebrated as an American hero. The left wants to kill every straight white Christian male, starting with Trump.

      • Dr. Faust says:

        Too early to tell if he was alone or not. I lean toward not because of precedence.

        In either case I’d advise Trump to claim the Mandate of Heaven. But merchants gonna merchant. Maybe he can make a deal with the next assassins’ bullet or any of the thousands more coming his way.

        • DH says:

          In either case I’d advise Trump to claim the Mandate of Heaven. But merchants gonna merchant.

          Trump doesn’t quite view himself in explicitly racial or religious terms, but objectively he has become the leader of the white race and the leader of Christians. Now what’s left is for him to start operating like the leader of the white race and the leader of Christians, and be prepared to say “Go!” when the time is right.

          Or maybe white Christians will resort to catapulting him willy-nilly across the Rubicon.

          • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

            >Or maybe white Christians will resort to catapulting him willy-nilly across the Rubicon.

            Rather, that tends to be the norm for this sort of thing, more often than not.

            When the Man of History finds himself wavering at the Crossroads of Destiny, his boon-companions are there to push him in the direction he always and already knew he must travel.

            And sometimes that gentle nudge is a fullbody sack.

            • JustAnotherGuy says:

              Gentle reminder that French nobility was conscripted to fight with the peasantry to avoid the special guillotine military operation, which while still failing in the end, was still better than going quietly into the night.

        • DH says:

          Sorry for sounding like a paid Trump shill, but it has to be said: they want to kill him, because they want to kill you.

    • Dr. Faust says:

      Ryan Routh is the shooters name. Taken into custody by SS. Was a blue haired demo on twitter. They’re purging his accounts now. Probably will be gone soon. Memory hole time.

      Escalation is escalating but we can all be assured that everything is normal and this is a normal part of democracy and this was a lone gunmen who had no ties to the CIA. I’m sure the guilt over what he’s done is too much for Mr. Routh to bear and he won’t be long for this world.

    • jim says:

      No she does not. Left opposition to the Academic left is fundamentally different from right opposition to the Academic left.

      Handl accurately summarised left opposition to Academia

      • Anonymous Fake says:

        The left thinks you get a good grades and a good job for being brown, gay, and angry. The right has a simpler philosophy, that you get a good job by getting good grades, but pretends not to notice that the best grades always go to those who are brown, gay, and angry.

        So far, the left wins that round. And on to the next round, when no one gets good jobs, the left immediately moves to loot white conservatives, while white conservatives start shooting their own side by suddenly claiming grades don’t matter and that you should have been networking, and somehow these magical and invisible white networks offer better opportunities than the brown and gay ones. This is a delusion. A fantasy.
        [*rest of the alternate universe deleted being to tedious to rebut*]

        • jim says:

          In all my job interviews, I do not recall ever being asked about my grades when I was the candidate, nor recollect any candidate spontaneously telling me about his grades when I was the interviewer. Only Human Resources cares about academic qualifications. It is the governments way of filtering out people who have not been inculcated with the officially correct beliefs.

          This grades stuff is not spontaneously coming from the bottom up from conservatives. It is coming from the top down from academics running the Ponzi scheme that scammed you. It is coming from the regnant left, which is now catching some flack from the brown left.

          This is not new. In books written in the 1920s and 1930s, if a character is depicted as having a good job, and his academic background is presented, he went to university to network. As Academia has become dumber and dumber, it has become more extreme, but Academia was never a job training scheme.

          And from here on, I am going to resume silently suppressing this stuff about grades and working hard at academia. No one believes it. No one ever believed it, and now they believe it even less. Everyone who matters partied at university, or pursued his real education and real job training outside of university. Wernher von Braun did not learn to build rockets at university. He built rockets, the government and the establishment was interested, so they hauled him off to university to network.

          • The Cominator says:

            College grades do sometimes count with federal government jobs. I probably wouldn’t have been taken anyway but I missed being a glowjogger because my grades in a tough engineering subject were passing but not high enough. So it counts for fake jobs sometimes I guess.

            • jim says:

              In the enormous number of posts that I have silently suppressed, Anonymous Fake calls for the production of enormous numbers of new fake jobs, those being the ones for which grades do indeed count — the reason I am silently suppressing this is that he keeps attributing the demand for new fake jobs to conservatives — it is not that I am suppressing his views, it is that I am suppressing his attribution of the left program to conservatives and telling us it is what conservatives want and need, suppressing his depiction of the academic left’s program to conservatives and Christians.

              • The Cominator says:

                Re the creation of fake jobs

                Get rid of women from the workforce (yes women will still work sometimes in hospitality, nursing, as actresses maybe secretaries but there aren’t many secretaries anymore) and mass undesirable 3rd world immigrants and get rid of 90% of the fake regulator jobs (but maybe create a couple new ones under RFK to stop American food from being poisoned) and let us have 8% economic growth in real terms… and see then if automation still makes it so that good men don’t have enough real jobs (retail jobs which suck should generally be done in large part by teenagers working part time as it used to be) then maybe we need to think about either engineering megaprojects some parts which will just require massive labor because there just isn’t enough equipment (in our system corruption in infrastructure building that makes it impossible won’t be tolerated)… and only then when optimizing the economy for growth, mostly removing women and 3rd worlder and then doing using infrastructure megaengineering (if you have excess workers) do you start making fake jobs.

                • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                  ‘Market intervention’ is easy; the voice of status issues a papal bull – sometimes also known as ‘op-eds’ in later days – and suddenly everyone coalesces around the new normal.

                  The incumbent priesthood has always been deliberately unselfreflective about the relevance of priesting to its actual power.

                  When people feel the sanction of power to denigrate the status of el-thedes, things start happening; especially when those things follow the natural contours of Being.

                  And in cases of serious damages from externalities, deaths, disabling, destruction of property, and other more diffuse issues that remain stubbornly unrefractory, then it is time to make an example, by publicly executing the poisoner, defrauder, or suboptimizer.

                  And in cases where it is not clear who exactly is responsible for the defections, due to dealing with a bureaucratized entity with lots of procedural functionaries and noone precisely in charge of anything, that does not mean you don’t execute anyone, it means you execute *all* of them.

                  The proper response to responsibility laundering is to inclusively and ecumenically roll up everyone playing the game of defection for their prize. Both, at minimum, for what is necessary to actually solve the particular problem in front of you; and, more broadly, to show what happens when people try to play that game – what is necessary to solve the general problem in front of you.

            • Pax Imperialis says:

              >because my grades in a tough engineering subject were passing but not high enough.

              Oh boy, here comes a drunk rant.

              The quiet unspoken part of glowjogger jobs is that nepotism is still a pretty big part of the hiring process. The only federal government “engineering” job I managed to get hired with was the same place my father worked at for decades. Granted he was dead by the time I applied, but everyone there knew him because he was pretty high up, so it was probably nepotism. I also noticed more than a few father son/daughter duos working there. My grades were never very high, nor were my father’s grades, and the same is true of most of those working there. The common consensus among that group was that you just need the degree and anything important would be on the job training.

              I did end up disillusioned with the job and ran off to the military. It was clear that what was once a cutting edge military R&D engineering job had degenerated into mostly contracting out. They were trying to bring back actual engineering capabilities, but bureaucracy was in the way. i.e. the government required x number of projects to be completed by “diversity”, and because those demographics didn’t exist in the office, they became reliant on contracting out to “diverse” to meet quota. This started in the early 2000s (might’ve been the 90s but it actually became a big problem by the 2010s), and by the 2020s almost everything ended up being contracted out, because once you start contracting out and not doing the engineering yourself, unsurprisingly you lose the skill set… of course the contractors didn’t always do a good job, and the ones that did do well knew how to fudge the “diversity” numbers.

              Which brings me to the military as an officer. Another federal job that requires a degree. The selection board was far more interested in my grandfather’s military record and medals than my GPA… even the letters of recommendation were more important than GPA. GPA was considered because it was a requirement of the bureaucracy. Many of the worst officers I’ve had the displeasure of being around were sheltered, high GPA, politically correct assholes that will probably end up getting good men killed, and of course they burned me at the first chance possible.

              Anyways, I hope I provided good anecdote on why college grades don’t really matter with federal government jobs, but the greater point should be that there are genuinely competent men in those jobs that the grades don’t measure, but they’ve been increasingly stymied by the bureaucracy since WW2. These were not always “fake jobs”. Government work can and should be real work, and a big part of the restoration should be allowing these jobs to be real again.

              Make (government) Engineering Great Again, MEGA!
              Make Officers Great Again, MOGA!

              Last thing I promise lied. It wasn’t your grades, it was who didn’t know you, but federal government jobs really sucks these days so you really did dodge a bullet. I cannot express just how fucked it is without potentially doxing myself, but ancedot isn’t required to see that. Just look at how the military is running out of everything because America and all its client states can’t bet Russian logistics.

              Just look at what the culture of girl boss propaganda has produced and now consider it in the context of the military. It’s depressing and it’s going to get a lot of good men killed should a large conflict kick off. DOD isn’t even thinking about victory anymore (at least judging by the force design plans) but trying to achieve the best defeat possible much in the same way the Japanese thought they could bleed the US out and get better peace deal. It didn’t work out for them, and now we’re playing the same role as them.

              Worse, if only you could see who these junior officers are. They’re not the same people as even 10 or 20 years ago. Yes, quality has been on a steady decline since WW2, but the recent decline is more of a drop off a cliff than a managed downward linear. The level of damage Biden has accomplished in 4 years will do decades of damage to the force unless Trump purges the Officer corps both at the top and the bottom. A real nightmare because it would require nothing short of a total overhaul of leadership.

      • anonymous mouse says:

        Nah. Institutions like academia are integral to the left, and the left has no reason to oppose them because they can give as many fake degrees to queer folx of color as they want. What’s really happening is Kamala is running as a moderate. So she’s stealing popular conservative policies and rhetoric, presenting herself as tough on the border, Hamas, etc. Signaling opposition to rampant credentialism is part of that.

  9. skippy says:

    We don’t really know the rate at which men are dying, and the quantities matter even if the qualitative trends of this post are very likely true. If Ukraine is losing 10,000 irrecoverables each quarter and Russia 5,000 or 2,500, it will take Ukraine a very long time to lose. Ukraine’s cohort of 16 year olds is also quite healthy, at 240k males, and while Ukraine is currently conscripting only 25 year olds and older, they could plausibly conscript these men in two years time.

    My point is that quantitative predictions are apt to be dangerous, even if one has the right idea.

    • jim says:

      We are hearing anecdotal reports of veteran brigades at a small fraction of their original strength, they get in a pile new of recruits with very brief training, the new recruits all die, or are wounded, or desert, and it is back to a fraction of their original strength.

      We see anecdotes of former retreat blocker brigades being sent to the front, which suggests that they are short of troops to block.

      We are seeing evidence of rapidly rising Ukrainian casualties, and rapidly declining Russian casualties, which is an indication of substantially increasing force disparity, consistent with those anecdotes.

      The streets of Kiev are still busy, but we hear reports of the rest of Jew occupied Ukraine turning into ghost towns.

      That is how you lose a war of attrition. Your forces just are not around any more.

      • Pax Imperialis says:

        >they get in a pile new of recruits

        Not exactly what I’m reading. The veteran units are not getting reinforced and many only exists on maps. The fresh recruits are being formed into new units and promptly sent out to the front without training and in many cases massively under equipped. They get liquidated in as little as three days, yet “remain” on the map. Do any of the veteran elite units that invaded the Kursk region even exist anymore? On the ground reporting indicated requests for blood donations for thousands of men in the first few days. The hospitals being over flooded in Sumy.

        >and rapidly declining Russian casualties

        Mediazona’s shows confirmed Russian KIA have been on a constant and steady decline since January. Losses are so low you’d think there isn’t a war going on. American veteran suicides are likely higher on a monthly count. This points to very bad things for Ukraine. Which leads into this:

        >I am endlessly surprised by the Ukraine’s ability to scrape up more men and material.

        I don’t think that’s entirely true. At this point Russia could likely completely overrun much of the front, but is likely holding back out of concern NATO might do something stupid at the last moment. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has publicly stated that if the front starts collapsing the Poland’s stance on getting directly involved might change. They appear to be willing to concede Ukrainian territorial losses but their current red line appears to be Dnieper river/Odesa. Possible that Putin is content with bleeding out Ukraine and EU fantasies until he can get more favorable peace deal because shelling the AFU along the current lines appear to be pretty low cost of the Russians.

        • jim says:

          Simplicius reviews the evidence. Bottom line. Nearly every Ukrainian who is willing to fight, or who can be compelled to fight by ever more extreme and brutal coercion, is dead or maimed. They are just out of troops and equipment.

          From the beginning, the objective of the color revolution was not to defeat Russia, though they had hopes, it was to expend the Ukraine in order to exhaust Russia. Now the Ukraine has been expended — and, like the sanctions, to less effect than had been hoped and expected. They never serious intended that Ukrainians would survive the color revolution.

          Next up is to throw more muppet states into the wood chipper.

    • S says:

      If the Russians are killing faster then UKR can mobilize (the front has gone from parity to Russian superiority) potential reserve doesn’t matter.

      • Pax Imperialis says:

        >potential reserve doesn’t matter

        They tell us how many potential war brides/concubines are at play.

  10. Alfred says:

    NYT just “reported” that officials foresee “problems” in the “counting” of “votes” this November, and that voters shouldn’t expect a result on election night.

    Jim, I think you’ve at many points said that the Steal may either be called off or fall apart due to incohesion on the left. What are you feeling today?

    • jim says:

      If Youtube is not censoring reaction, there is a good chance that we will get a result on election night.

      • Dr. Faust says:

        Much like the pressure placed on the people due to Covid I believe this election has done similar things to the people of the world. In America only those who dwell with the birds and trees can escape its consequence. People I’ve known for decades without a care for democracy are suddenly biting their nails and stomping their feet over the 15th of November. This pressure will coalesce and converge into something a release point of significance akin to the end of Covid. My prayers are that it ends on the 15th. That it not drag out long regardless of outcome. A proper catharsis is the best we can hope for. In victory or defeat may the new year bring us a new thing.

        • The Cominator says:

          The 5th of November… que the Guy Fawkes (in reality evil Jesuit scum even if you instinctively sympathize with a guy who wants to blow up the whole government) memes. People on our side will be punished more harshly if we get basic facts wrong than people on the other.

  11. Mister Grumpus says:

    One wonders just how non-violent such a king-making exercise could actually be.

    Helicoptering shouldn’t be seen. Just certain characters and apparatchiks disappear one night and are never seen again. Sometimes people just disappear, you know? It’s a complete mystery. Experts are baffled. No one can possibly explain it, or else.

    But in public, I bet it could be a simple as usual suspects getting their bare asses paddled on Harvard Yard or the national mall. The goal isn’t killing but humiliation. Ask Hollywood.

    • Mayflower Sperg says:

      Under the Clintons, inconvenient people committed suicide or died in bizarre accidents. Since 2021 people have been dying suddenly of unknown causes. It’s a complete mystery that no onymous person is able to solve. Why not steal some heart attack juice from a local pharmacy and eliminate your political enemies that way? Ten times the usual dose, straight into a vein.

    • The Cominator says:

      If you’re in power you execute publicly when you want to create fear, people disappearing creates that too but perhaps in a different way, but otoh if you want to assassinate but raise no alarm you do “suicides”. The 3rd Reich normally loved creating terror but with Rommel they persuaded him to “commit suicide”.

      • jim says:

        Hitler felt that people disappearing was more effective in creating fear than executions being announced.

        When the crisis of socialism hit, he wound up eliminating quite large numbers of people in an effort to eliminate shortages by socialist means, which works short term, but merely postpones the crisis, and does not postpone it very much.

        • The Cominator says:

          “Hitler felt that people disappearing was more effective in creating fear than executions being announced.”
          They did both so it depended. Among Aryan Germans he preferred they disappeared suddenly except perhaps with the July Plot where it was public (except Rommel as I said). In occupied countries generally they preferred to publically announce people were shot in reprisals.

          With Jews they were officially “resettled to the east” generally but probably a lot of people at least suspected they weren’t going to survive “resettlement”…

  12. The Cominator says:

    One way that occurred to that might be able to help Trump with mail ins…

    There are a lot of degenerate leftist zoomer and millenial spinsters who vote Democrat living off their boomer and xer dads money… we need to make it a trend unless zoomer or xer dad gets a video sent of them filling out and mailing in a ballot for Trump and the Republicans… they are cutoff.

    • jim says:

      I don’t think this matters significantly. What matters is the masses get voted for, rather than voting — the mass ballot box stuffing that we have seen videoed.

  13. bob sykes says:

    The ceasefire of 2022 would have implemented the Minsk accords, and kept the Donbas in Ukraine, although with some autonomy. Russia would have kept Crimea. That ceasefire, like the Minsk accords themselves, was abrogated by the US/UK.

    The US/UK think they can defeat Russia, and intend to keep the war going. It appears that we might have avoided nuclear war, because US/UK have apparently backed down on their threat to bomb deep inside Russia.

    Or maybe not. On Friday, Biden seemed to think the bombing might still go forward.

    • Hesiod says:

      A day or two before, Biden was wearing a MAGA hat, so not sure what sort of weathervane his statements and actions are these days.

      Speaking of MAGA, how about MOCTPA? Make Orca Chew Toys Plentiful Again.

  14. Anonymous Fake says:

    [*deleted*] we now see that Chuds will fight for globohomo as much as for the flag and anthem.[*deleted*]

    • jim says:

      If this was true, we would not see Blinken singing in a Nazi bar.

      The Nazi left can fight. The globohomo left cannot fight.

      • Anonymous Fake says:

        Nazis had a healthy fertility rate. The Ukraine’s LARPers are mostly closeted homosexuals. And [*deleted for posting from the universe our enemies wish they had*]

        • jim says:

          Our known type specimen of a good officer and good drone pilot, and thus our known exemplar of future aristocracy is “White”, who took the Avdeevka Terrikon. Our known type specimen of future Kings is Yevgeny Prigozhin

  15. Karl says:

    Increasingly it is the West’s ability to scrape up more men and material that keeps the Ukrainian army from vanishing. I suspect there is a substantial number of non-Ukrainians in the Ukrainian forces. It might soon be easier to find soldiers for the Ukrainian forces outside Ukraine than inside

    • Mayflower Sperg says:

      Easy solution to the manpower shortage: A nigger tries to buy a bag of chips and a large soda but his EBT card doesn’t work. Goes to the welfare office to complain, not noticing that the sign now says “recruitment office”. Signs a piece of paper to get his EBT restored. Two weeks later he and thousands like him are packed into the trenches anound Pokrovsk.

      • Pax Imperialis says:

        And when all the joggers freely run away from their position, the power point still has them down as holding the line. Poland mysteriously gets thousands of new asylum seekers. Obviously no relation.

        • Mayflower Sperg says:

          That’s what blocking units are for. If they try to flee, mow them down and count them as dead Russians.

          • Pax Imperialis says:

            The blocking units are all dead. I suppose new blocking units full of joggers could be created, but I suspect they’d flee as well.

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