Jim's Blog

Five months ago I said “Ukraine begins to crumble” and said it has about six months or so of men and material left, but cautiously qualified that incautious prediction by adding that I am endlessly surprised by the Ukraine’s ability to scrape up more men and material.

Well, it is now crumbling considerably faster, but does not look like it is going to fall in a month.

Russia has been fighting a war of attrition, while the Ukraine has been attempting to fight a war of maneuver. In a war of maneuver, the side with the greatest willingness to sacrifice men and material has a substantial advantage. In a war of attrition, not so much.

All things being equal, in a war of attrition, one’s casualties are roughly inverse to ones numbers. If one has half as many men, one has twice as many casualties. If the enemy has twice as much men and material, one has twice the casualties. So as a war of attrition draws to a close, the losing sides casualties mount faster and faster, and the winning side’s casualties mount slower and slower. The Ukraine is now suffering casualties about twice as fast as it was five months ago, Russia about half as fast.

So the Ukraine is probably going to last longer than a month. But not a whole lot of months.

In Kursk, the Ukraine had a big success, in that it was able to attain war of maneuver, grabbing a whole lot of land without having to shell every farmhouse, ever ditch, and every grove of trees, without men dying for every ruin, every ditch, and every tree. But war of maneuver does you no good, unless you can grab what the enemy cannot afford to lose. The Ukrainian Kursk offensive resembles the German spring offensives of 1918. Realising they were losing the war of attrition, the Germans attempted to resume war of maneuver. And succeeded. But the maneuvers did not actually reach anywhere that mattered all that much, so that a decisive tactical victory for the Germans was also a decisive strategic defeat for the Germans.

Exactly four months after the end of their 1918 spring offensives, the Germans agreed to hand over their heavy weapons and disband their army. And they agreed to that because they were losing their heavy weapons and their army was disbanding itself. Since the Ukraine is run from Washington and Massachusetts, there will probably be no armistice. Rather, its army is just going to vanish.

The Russian response to the Kursk offensive was to create a defensive line alarmingly close to Kursk, and alarmingly far from the Ukrainian border, effectively conceding a very substantial amount of ground to the Ukrainians, allowing the Ukrainians a big tactical success, but ensuring a strategic Russian victory. The line would have put Kursk and the nuclear power plant potentially within range of Ukrainian artillery, but cities and nuclear power plants can soak up a whole lot of artillery.

The Kursk offensive was a big black eye for the Russians, but Putin did not allow it to distract him from the goal of eliminating Ukrainian military capability.

The there are a number of proposals for Nato escalation, for more direct Nato involvement, which are likely to lead to Russian measures to escalate against Nato — for example by Russians launching Russian missiles against American ships and bases from the territories of Russian proxies. Sweden and Blinken seem to be trying to start World War III, while Poland and the Pentagon are screaming “Stop!”

The Neocons insist that Russia must be defeated and seen to be defeated, in order that Russia can be color revolutioned, but a nuclear power cannot be defeated, merely forced to accept an unsatisfactory stalemate. Attempt to defeat a nuclear power, the nukes will fly. Something like the Minsk accords is a reasonable stalemate outcome, but the problem there is that Washington is not agreement capable, so I doubt that something like the Minsk accords are possible, even if everyone agrees that they are less bad than the alternative. Regardless of the outcome in the Ukraine, the drift toward World War III is likely to continue.

War is easy, peace is hard, in the sense that falling off a cliff is easy, climbing a cliff is hard. Large scale cooperation is difficult.

To accomplish peace, need a leader who can say “peace with the outgroup”, and everyone is at peace with the outgroup, and anyone in the ingroup who is unpeaceful gets sent to the outgroup, possibly in pieces. and who can say “war with the outgroup”, and everyone is at war, or hangs as a traitor.

The west lacks that kind of leadership. If Kamala is installed she will no more be the leader than Biden was. If Trump is allowed to be elected, it will be difficult for him to become the real leader short of sending numerous members of the elite to the Pacific in black helicopters for long distance swimming lessons.

Wars happen because some people expect one outcome, and others expect a different outcome. So prediction is hard, for if it was easy, the war would likely have been avoided, though as the war goes on, and on, and on, becomes easier.

Due to fog of war, hard to know what is happening now, or has happened recently, But after a while, it becomes obvious what did happen, which gives some indication of what will happen.

It has long been obvious that the west is run by demon worshippers, and with the opening of the Paris Olympics a couple of days ago, this should now be obvious to everyone. Demon worshippers want you dead. Well, they want everyone and everything dead, including themselves, but you first. The tactics and strategy of this war becomes a lot more intelligible if one understands that one side is commanded by people who believe themselves to be serving demons, or perhaps actually are serving demons.

The war started off with war of movement, as did World War I, but, as in World War I, both sides quickly became very good at shutting down the other side’s movement, and, since then, like World War One, it has been war of attrition.

The rationale for the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive was to regain war of movement. Nato wonder weapons, Nato training, and all that. Of course Nato has not fought a peer war since World War Two, so have no idea.

Plus, Nato is completely structured about keeping commissioned officers nice and safe in nice safe bases, where they send grunts and non commissioned officers out to die.

I have long said that if you have one man in your army that does not fight, pretty soon you will have no men in your army that fight. Nato organisation is all about having no commissioned officers that fight. The left does not like warrior armies. Finds that it needs warrior armies, but has concluded it does not need a warrior officer corps.

This is partly the managerial state, the triumph of unaccountable bureaucracy over people who do actual things, and partly the leftist state. The left is priestly, and priests and warriors always conflict. So now we have a full priestly officer corps, which is a protection for the left against coups, but not a protection against insurrection, invasion, or conquest.

Ukraine, however, inherited from the Soviet Union a warrior army, plus the forces that made the Maidan coup were the Nazis, and a core part of their ideology is to have a warrior army and rule by warrior-priests. Nato looked down their noses at this insufficiently holy and progressive organisation, and has been re-organising them.

The plan for the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive was to probe all along the front for weak points, then charge through at the weakest point, cutting off Russian forces to the west, thus regaining a vast swathe of territory to the west, without having to fight for every ditch, every tree, and every house.

The weakest point turned out to be the low ground between Russian controlled high ground. Ukrainian progress through the buffer zone in front of the Russian defence lines was very slow, and very costly, and when they finally reached the first line of defence, and occupied it, they had to bring troops and materials to it through a long and winding gauntlet along the low ground between Russian strong places on the high ground on either side. They got to the first line of defence, but were never able to get beyond it, for whenever they stuck their heads above the fortifications that they had managed to seize, their heads got blown off. The Russians had prepared their first line of defence to be indefensible against attacks coming from their second line of defence. The “weakest point” was a killing field, and the first line of defence was a death trap.

The Ukrainians lost an army, except for their retreat blocking brigades, and had to conscript a new army.

The interesting and extraordinary thing was the West’s stubborn persistence in a strategy that had turned out to be horrifically bad and entirely disastrous. Why did they just keep pumping more and more men into killing fields and death traps?

Partly it was the managerial state. The mid level managers are focused on on next week’s power point presentation, and demand that the low level managers supply them with with good bullet points for that presentation. The high level managers look at the good bullet points, and all is well, so issue orders to keep doing what you are doing, so the system as a whole tends to mindlessly pursue a short term, high time preference strategy, while generating meaningless numbers showing highly successful pursuit of a long term, low time preference strategy. The Russians on the other hand, tended to focus on winning the war, hence actually did pursue a long term, low time preference strategy, where they sought to conserve their resources for the final battles, brave men being the most important resource of all.

Partly it was demon worship. Those organising this war want Russians to die, but also want Ukrainians to die. The people who organised the Maidan coup are Jews with family reasons for wanting Ukrainians dead and the Ukraine destroyed.

The managerial state reinforces leftism, because being in contact with reality is a bad career move, and leftism reinforces the managerial state, because leftists do not like people telling them that reality is real, and both of them reinforce demon worship, because demon worshippers are fine with actual reality going to $#!&. All three depend on lies, each of them provides a different reason for lying, but a lie promulgated for one reason finds support from the other two reasons. The bureaucrat wants the right bullet points regardless of whether the bullet points meaningfully represent reality, the leftist does not believe that existence exists, that reality is real, and the demon worshipper just likes lies and lying. The confident inversion of truth is the demonic equivalent of prayer.

The Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive eventually petered out, due to lack of men, and lack of weapons. Nato is out of ammo. Nato troops have been disarmed.

In order to continue attriting the Ukrainians, the Russians were forced to go on the offensive. Since the objective is attrit the enemy, rather than gain turf, there are no big arrow offensives. Every ditch, every tree, every ruin, is gained at enormous cost to both sides.

It looks to me that when well trained, well equipped, highly motivated, battle hardened, experienced, Russian troops attempt to take a village from well trained, well equipped, highly motivated, battle hardened, experienced, Ukrainian troops, they suffer very high casualties and frequently fail.

Fortunately for the Russians, most of the well trained, well equipped, highly motivated, battle hardened, experienced, Ukrainian troops died in the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive.

Increasingly the battles consist of experienced and highly motivated Russian vets versus barely trained reluctant Ukrainian fresh meat. The death rate among inexperienced Ukrainian troops is vastly higher than the death rate among Ukrainian vets. The number of Ukrainian vets continues to shrink. Fresh Ukrainian conscripts do not seem to be becoming vets, but corpses — in part due to a commissioned officer corps that is grossly out of contact with reality. If you want your fresh meat to survive to become vets, you need to issue retreat orders in time.

The Ukrainians have a troop rotation policy that should in theory result in fresh meat becoming battle hardened veterans, but this does not seem to be actually happening in practice all that much.

In part the bubble of delusion around the Ukrainian commissioned officer corps is a result of the managerial state, the triumph of unaccountable bureaucracy over functionality, the Natoization of the Ukrainian military. In part it is the result of leftism, for leftism inherently tends to solipsism. And in part, demon worshippers just like human sacrifice.

A few weeks ago I reported that the Russians were taking one or two villages every one or two days. Now it is one to four villages every day. Because the Ukrainians are out of everything, and most of all, by far, they are out of men.

This is reminiscent of the hundred days phase of World War One.

At the current rate of advance, it will be a very long time before the front line changes significantly, but the exact position of the front line does not matter. What matters is how much army and government the Ukraine has left. And the accelerating rate of Russian advance reveals that the Ukraine has considerably less, and that what it does have is shrinking every faster.

So the questions are:

1. Will the Ukraine make the concessions the Russians are asking for?

Probably not, because everyone in the Ukraine dying cannot possibly happen for the managerial elite, cannot happen and is unimportant for the left, and is a positively delightful outcome for the demon worshippers.

2. If they don’t make the concessions, when does the Ukrainian muppet government disappear?

Never, because the muppet government is located in Washington and Cambridge.

3. OK, when does the muppet government lose the ability to hold photo ops in the Ukraine?

And that is what is hard to know. Could be tomorrow, could be years. The sooner it happens, the more Ukrainians there will be left in the Ukraine. I hope for November, by analogy to the hundred days that led to the end of World War One.

The Ukraine is not a nation and has never been a nation. It has always been a province of empire, with its boundaries arbitrarily redrawn from time according to administrative convenience. It has always been ruled, then as now, by satraps of empire who regard themselves as imperials, and the locals as mere expendable provincials.

Imperial policy is to use up every last Ukrainian against Russia. They are starting to run out. Next up, Georgia.

Georgia was color revolutioned, but the color revolution did not stick. Georgia is a real nation, with an ancient and glorious history of resistance to empire. Georgians want to remain Georgians, rather than be dissolved into homogenised brownish globohomos soup. They want to be part of Europe, and part of Nato, but do not want to pay the price of their history, the culture, their race, their faith, and their identity being erased, their statues of great men pulled down, their Churches destroyed or turned into shrines of Gaia and gay sex, their old and beautiful buildings bulldozed and replaced by demonic postmodern eyesores.

Tearing down statues and appropriating and repurposing sacred places and symbols is what the conqueror does to the defeated.

The color revolutionary uniparty was united on Europe and Nato, but when the bill came due, lost enthusiasm and is now suffering severe disunity on the issue, a disunity that is more within both branches of the uniparty, rather than between the two officially separate branches of the uniparty. The uniparty system of tweedledum and tweedledee parties looks as fake as it is when the big political issue of the day cuts within the uniparty.

There are currently twenty six thousand globohomo funded ngos in Georgia — though more likely three ngos wearing twenty six thousand hats. And they are working on a second color revolution with intent that the bill be paid with interest, and Georgia faggotized and thrown into the meat grinder against Russia.

I don’t speak Georgian, and I don’t know what is going on in Georgia. But I do know what is going on in the English speaking world, which is where color revolution are prepared and organised. “Georgia’s democratic backsliding” “Oligarchy”. “the Georgian regime” The British minister of Defence, in the course of bellicose warmongering speech announcing weapons and training for Ukraine, announces that Britain “will support the legitimate aspirations of the Georgian people” Perhaps in the same manner as Britain supported the legitimate aspirations of the Libyan people by bombing them flat. “If ngos are not allowed to operate freely we can predict the outcome of the next election in Georgia” Indeed we can. Perhaps Modi should take notice.

Georgians, it seems, aspire to being globohomogenized, and Britain will support their aspirations.

The usual suspects assure us that the bill requiring ngos to register as foreign funded is unpopular, and the overwhelming majority of Georgians oppose it, and support Georgia being converted from a nation to administrative unit within the uniform European Union with a uniform moral faith, uniform demonic architecture, and a uniform lack of past and history. And also say that if ngos are forced to register, the political outcome in Georgia is going to be radically different. Recall the radical and dramatic change in the cultural atmosphere in Russia when all western agents self deported. similarly Hungary. When Orban took some measures to deal with Soros and transferred control of state universities from his foreign aligned enemies to his allies, things suddenly got a whole lot quieter in Hungary.

In Slovakia, tensions between the ngos and Slovakians are rising, as the ngos keep demanding the erasure of the Sovakian way of life, culture, faith, history and identity. But perhaps because Sovakia has little experience of being a nation, matters have not come to a head the way they have in Hungary and Georgia, Hungary and Georgia being real nations with long history. Although nationalism is a form of leftism, historical and biological identity is rightist. The Slovaks are mighty weak on historical identity, but they have biological identity and cultural history.

An enormous number of men died, an enormous number of tanks and fighting vehicles were expended in the battle for Avdeevka. Advdeeka was the key strong hold in the line of strong places the Ukrainians have spent ten years building in the Donbass.

And the key to the battle of Avdeevka was the Terrikon, an artificial mountain fortress with a flat top covered by maze of bunkers, and the top surrounded by low walls, so that those below could not see those on top, nor shoot at them. From the Terrikon, those on top can see and kill people twenty kilometers away, from reasonable safety and comfort. As long as the Ukraine held the Terrikon, Avdeevka could not fall. Once the Russians took the Terrikon, Avdeevka could not stand. The flat top was big enough that pounding it with artillery blind was pointless, for the material around the trenches and bunkers was like concrete. And even if artillery had a drone spotter, you had to land the shell right on the target, and artillery was not sufficiently accurate, the fortifications being tiny and very strong.

The Russians expended huge numbers of men and tanks repeatedly trying, and repeatedly failing, to take the Terrikon. An enormous number of men died, and an enormous number of tanks and vehicles, were expended in the endless and endlessly repeated World War I style battles for the Terrikon. They kept trying to have World War style II battles, but it always devolved into World War I style battles, which are always terrible and horrifying. Until Russia gave White’s 114th brigade the job of taking it, and permission to do it their own way. They took it with zero casualties, and little use for the mountains of million dollar equipment deployed. Zero casualties in the 114th, though I suspect that there were quite a few casualties in the column of tanks used to distract attention.

White privately raised funds to buy some drones. The battle was mostly won by a single drone operated by White, plus a whole lot of electronic warfare. His drone looks like an ordinary good consumer grade drone, presumably modified for war. Maybe worth a few thousand dollars, while the tanks and all that cost millions of dollar each. The cost of those drones was the cost of a few shells. His team had only three drones at any one time, though they lost quite a few drones in the process.

Hat tip Simplicius the Thinker “Ukrainian streets deserted“. Scroll to the end of his page. First part of his page covers the fact that the Ukraine collapsing from the inside, not from the battle front. The future of war is the mini documentary at the end of his page.

White used drones, men on foot, stealth, distraction, misdirection, electronic warfare, and drones. Mostly he used one single drone. He took the blood soaked Terrikon with zero casualties. There are many drones and drone operators in this war, but a very small proportion of drone operators are responsible for the vast majority of damage inflicted on the enemy, as in knightly medieval warfare where battles were apt to be primarily decided by the valor, strength, and skill of a single exceptional knight, the Terrikon was in large part taken personally by White himself, through the drone he operated.

He pounded the Terrikon by drone for quite a while, then, when the Ukrainians were distracted by an entirely irrelevant column of tanks, pounded them some more. Most of them broke and fled, and were killed while fleeing. Then his men, deeply hidden in stealth, suddenly came out of stealth and stormed the Terrikon, killing the holdouts, who were hiding in the remaining bunkers and trenches — mostly people too wounded to flee. Those few who remained were too demoralised to offer effective resistance.

The job of the tanks was merely to attract attention and shellfire, so that shells would be landing on tanks that did not matter, rather than on men who mattered. When the Ukrainians should have been bombarding the Terrikon, and bombarding the remnants of their own troops abandoned on top of it, they were instead shelling an irrelevant column of tanks.

The Russian high command refused to believe that White’s Brigade had taken the Terrikon, so they ran up the flag, and sent out the video on social media.

Notice: Aristocratic warfare — a single man makes the difference. Aristocratic logistics — White fought with his personal weapons, rather than relying on the vast and stupendously expensive logistic bureaucracy. Artillery mattered a lot, the thunder of tanks mattered a lot as an attention getter and as an artillery sponge, but largely it was one drone operated by one man. The Ukrainians broke and fled under drone warfare, and only then did his men move.

Aristocratic governance is born in aristocratic warfare, and the first side that wakes up to this is likely to conquer. The Holy Roman Empire was born with Charles the Hammer almost accidentally creating aristocratic governance. The Russian government gave White some medals. Should have given him lands and a wife.

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The Ukraine never has been a nation. It has always merely been a province of empire. Ukrainians oft got conscripted to fight in the wars of far away empires, but even when the empire ruled through local satraps, as it does now, the local minions of empire failed to act as if the Ukraine was a nation.

Here are Ukrainians celebrating independence day. Notice the near total absence of anyone celebrating. Compare with the enormous turnout everywhere in Russia for victory day.

And today the local minions of empire in the Ukraine are not acting as if the Ukraine is a nation.

Three recent incidents reveal this. That defences along the Northern front were paid for, yet for the most part not actually built, that the Russians discovered a very long pile of materials for building defences that had been dumped among the trees by the edge of the road and, most all, Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State, playing guitar and singing with a Ukrainian rock band at the Barman Dictat in Kiev.

The Ukraine has a trucking crisis, making it difficult to move food to where it is needed, because so many truck drivers have been conscripted to fight in the front lines, rather than transport stuff to the front lines. A Ukrainian conscript who lost both legs at the knee was demobilised for lack of legs, and then, legless, conscripted again. But, it would seem that is not a problem for nightclub entertainers. Kiev, thanks to the mighty influx of American money, has more bars and nightclubs than it did before the war.

According to CBS news, that it is party time in Kiev is a form of defiance of Russia. The young men in the CBS photos are evidently at no risk of being summoned to the front. The imperial minions in Kiev are acting like the war is a gold mine, and they have struck it rich.

The minions in other imperial provinces along the border watch the party enviously, and wonder if they too could strike gold and retire to the South of France.

If the Ukraine was a real nation, the local elite would not do this stuff, or if they did do it, would be more furtive about it. The local elite has no plans for making peace with Russia. They don’t care and it is not their decision to make anyway. They have plans for moving to the South of France. They are building and purchasing mansions, and in Zelensky’s case, a palace, as far from the Ukraine as they can, and as the war approaches its end, stealing as much as possible as fast as possible.

As the time available to steal stuff grows shorter, and the prospect of long term employment as the empire’s satraps in the Ukraine grows more remote, the imperial minions naturally focus more on stealing whatever is not nailed down, and burning down what is nailed down so that they can steal the nails, and focus less on preserving imperial rule. Global American Empire rule over the Ukraine is collapsing. The battle field is merely a lagging indicator. The collapse starts in the luxurious nightclubs of Kiev first, and the battlefield eventually follows later. The apparatus of imperial rule in the Ukraine is about to relocate to the mansions in the South of France.

The same malaise is visible, though not in such advanced form, even in the heart of empire. The inability to increase arms production is partly de-industrialisation, partly diversity, equity, and inclusion, partly the decline of science and technology. But it is also partly that military industrial complex is more focused on how much they can steal before the roof falls in than on increasing arms production.

Russia has activated its fresh Northern Front forces, who now find themselves fighting the tattered remnants of Ukrainian forces who had earlier been chewed up on the Eastern front, and sent to guard the Northern front to give them a break. These fresh forces do not have fresh leadership. They are led by battle hardened veterans who have been through hell and back.

In modern warfare, you cannot follow Kagan’s moron plan — concentrate your forces on a narrow front, and punch through. If you try it, you are just creating a target rich environment for the enemy to have fun with.

A broader front favours the attacker, a narrower front the defender. The Eastern front is so broad that it is rather permeable to people sneaking through, and on May tenth, the Russians activated the northern front, making the front line a whole lot broader.

The Russians have been loudly signalling and very publicly organising an attack for May fifteenth — which was widely believed to be feint to pull Ukrainian forces off the eastern front. As feint, it succeeded, leading to some small Ukrainian collapses on the eastern front, a little village here, a little village there, a hill or two, a patch of trees, a few trenches.

Then on May tenth, the Russians launched several small reconnaissances in force across the northern front. Some of which were horribly defeated, but most of which were startlingly successful, so within a few hours, the successful ones were followed up by a thunder run. (Which sounds a bit like Kagan’s stupid plan, but these are broad front thunder runs, not narrow front thunder runs, so maybe not quite as stupid.)

Well, in modern warfare, thunder runs have a horrifyingly bad record, so the Ukrainians will likely manage to stop it somewhere somehow. Modern warfare favours the small, swift, sneaky, and unexpected, and quietly changing the day by five days should not have been all that surprising, though it looks like it was. The Ukrainians got caught with their pants down. But the key and fundamental Ukrainian problem is that they are just running out of Ukrainians. Too many have died. And having a whole new front and a whole lot of fresh Russian troops to deal with suddenly makes that problem a whole lot worse. Too many have died, and today a lot more are dying.

It seems unlikely that the Ukraine war will end in a negotiated settlement. The Ukrainian muppet state is already starting to disappear, with most of the high elements of the state having moved to mansions in the South of France, Italy, and Canada. They don’t seem keen on America for some reason I am at loss to understand. Zelensky has purchased a palace in London, which is not a strong vote of confidence in the continued existence of the Ukrainian muppet state.

Those elements of the state apparatus that are still around are increasingly acting like mobile bandits rather than stationary bandits — grabbing what they can preparatory to moving on, and applying state violence capriciously and arbitrarily without regard to the long term state objectives of maintaining order and productivity. Likely that by and by, there just will not be enough of the muppet state left for the elements of the state to get away with using violence under color of authority.

If the Ukrainian muppet state simply vanishes, chances are that the Russians will not intervene to restore order, as this would be contrary to their objective of obtaining a neutral and non aligned buffer zone between themselves and NATO. With luck, we may gain a modern example of how to organize a state from nothing. Or at least how not to do it. Ancient states were created from nothing through relationships of blood and marriage, but we are likely to see a state created from nothing through computers running on Starlink internet and generator power or solar power.

On the other hand, the normal process of state creation is that mobile bandits get sufficiently large and well organised that they face no serious opposition within a well defined turf, and quietly and slowly settle down to stationary banditry. Which is a long, slow, bloody, and destructive process. And one that the Russians may not have the patience for. Russians want a strong cohesive and neutral state capable of keeping out agents of foreign powers, capable of taking responsibility and exercising power over state level threats that happen on its turf.

We shall see. But the topic of this post is not what happens to the Ukraine after what remains of the Ukrainian muppet state skedaddles, but what happens in Nato after what remains of the Ukrainian muppet state skedaddles. Even if Ukraine develops a strong cohesive non aligned state, Nato and Russia are going to keep on pushing where their borders are adjacent. What is happening to Kalingrad is intolerable to Russia and Russians, and Russia is sure to do something violent about it after the Ukrainian muppet state vanishes, even if Nato engages in no further acts of menace and aggression — and it surely will engage in further acts of menace and aggression.

Russia has had centuries of Kalingrad type problems, and for centuries has been resolving or attempting to resolve those problems with immense and terrible violence. This is unlikely to change no matter who governs Russia in future, short of it being conquered and converted into a muppet state of the Global American Empire.

Russia is an empire, and naturally fissiparous, but the gradual escalation of threats, menace, and violence by the global American Empire has led to unprecedented unity and patriotism. These days, even the Chechens are enthusiastic Russian patriots. Russians have deep and horrifying memories of World War II, and when they look westwards, they see the German Wehrmacht in 1940. They are psychologically prepared for total war that could very easily go nuclear, though they do not expect nuclear war happening suddenly out of the blue.

The most recent Nato escalation of war on Russia was a small scale invasion of Russia past the borders that Nato recognizes. It was only a reconnaissance in force, a test of Russian capability, will, and cohesion, but it pissed off the Russians no end.

The Polish and American Nato forces operating from Nato bases in the Ukraine were wearing “Free Russian” hats, and the Nato bases are prominently labelled Ukrainian, and everyone in Global American Empire thinks this makes it totally not a Nato invasion of Russia, just a proxy invasion of Russia, a view not universally accepted by people who live in Russia.

Because the Global American Modus Operandi since 2010 has been slow and creeping escalation, on the slow boiling the frog model, no one in Russia expects nuclear war any time soon, but the Russian government and individual Russians are preparing for nuclear war eventually.

You will recall how the US could not tolerate Soviet Empire bases in Cuba, and this nearly led to nuclear war even though there was absolutely no threat of an Imperial Soviet Invasion of the American homeland. Russians perceive a very real threat of Imperial American invasion. In the end, either the borders of the Russian homeland will be neutral states, or the nukes will very likely fly.

The Ukraine begins to crumble. The Ukraine has about six months of war material left. There army has been severely depleted of men willing to fight. Zelensky has been ruling illegally since March 31, when the last constitutional fig leaf of paper pretence at democracy expired. The pool of potential conscripts is empty – they could easily lower the age of conscription to eighteen or to fifteen, but due to flight and failure to reproduce, that is not a substantial pool.

The death and injury rate among the men that have already been conscripted is horrendous, and is growing faster and faster.

On the other hand, Russian advances have been insignificant so far. A ditch, then a tree, then another ditch, then a house. Remember Bakhmut. That was quite a while ago, and Putin murdered the general who accomplished it, which is not good strategy. Today there is much excitement because the Russians have gained a small and shaky toehold in Chasov Yar. The centre of Chasov Yar is about ten kilometres from the centre of Bakhmut, and the Russian toehold about five kilometres from the western edge of Bakhmut, so it took the Russians all this time to advance five kilometres.

But this painfully slow rate of advance largely reflects Ukrainian strategy of sacrificing very large numbers of troops to hang on to very bad positions. They keep feeding enough troops into a killing field that the Russians cannot take it. So the Russians kill the men that are defending it, and the Ukrainians feed in more men. Ukrainian strategy seems single mindedly focused on what will look good in next week’s Washington power point presentation, and avoiding what will look bad in that presentation, rather than on winning the war.

A Ukrainian strategy aimed at winning the war would be to make Russians pay the highest possible price for their advances, and Ukrainians the lowest possible price for inflicting that high price, and then negotiate when the Russians got tired — it would mean a willingness to fall back from weak places. The entire Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive consisted of Ukrainians in weak places fighting Russians in strong places.

Washington loves its frozen conflicts, but the Ukrainians are paying an unpayable price to keep this conflict frozen.

I watched Kagan on Youtube lay out his plan for the Ukrainian Greatest Counter Offensive. (Or maybe it was his wife’s plan, or Blinken’s plan, but he seemed to think it was a great idea, and that he was a great military expert on warfare). Well I am not a great military expert on warfare, but I thought that the plan was idiotic, and that he was idiotic. Some time later I learned that the Pentagon also thought the plan idiotic, and the Ukraine’s top general thought the plan was idiotic. Nonetheless, the Ukrainians attempted to carry out the plan. Which tells you where the power is. The power is with people who have family reasons for wanting Ukrainians dead.

So, the question is, how long before the remaining part of the Ukrainian army just decides to vanish?

Summer.

If the Ukraine was a real nation, their army would be only about half way to collapse, and they could probably continue the same way to 2026 or so. But I think Ukrainian patriotism is mostly fake. The Ukraine has never been a real nation, but a satrapy that empires fought over, not with. I say Ukrainian patriotism is fake and gay, that people say patriotic words because it is easier and safer, and in due course they will say pro-russian words, and scarcely notice the change. Their Ukrainian patriotic words are not really their words, they are Global American Empire words, and Global American Empire is falling.

We shall see if I am right.

Know your enemy, know yourself, win every battle. Know yourself but not the enemy, win some, lose some. Know neither the enemy nor yourself, lose every battle

The Global American Empire does not know itself nor the enemy. They cannot see that to the ordinary Russian in the street, this looks like the lead up to World War II with Nato as Wehrmacht, that fear of the west and the tyranny Russians suffered in the 1990s has remarkably united the naturally fissiparous Russian empire.

And similarly, they believe that Russians seek liberation from Putin, see him as a tyrant, and long to be liberated to Global American Empire rule and for peace by surrender. Hence the remarkably stupid US “Free Russian” invasion of Russia. They thought the oppressed Russian masses would rise up to join them for liberation. The Russians got some electronic devices from the bodies of the “Free Russians” — which recorded a mixture of Ukrainians speaking Ukrainian with Ukrainian accents, and Americans speaking English with American accents.

Our rulers believe their own economic statistics, such as 3.5 percent inflation and low unemployment, hence the disaster of economic sanctions against Russia, which in practice did far more harm to the American Empire than the Russian. All GDP statistics are fake, but Global American Empire GDP statistics are fake and gay. Hence American incapacity to support this war logistically. When America goes up against China, the disparity in economic capability is going to be far more extreme.

From 1990 to 2010 or so, Russia was a province of the Global American Empire. Global American Empire rule was disastrous, incompetent, corrupt, and a nightmare of ruin, oppression and tyranny for ordinary Russians. In 2010 or so, Russia shrugged off Global American Empire rule, and the Global American Empire promptly set to with the standard treatment of rebellious provinces, attempting to color revolution. The color revolution was very badly done, so inevitably escalated to terror, murder and proxy war. Among other things Global American Empire funded and armed the Chechen revolt, and smuggled in a whole lot of arabs to help the Chechens out. The arabs were not very helpful, and managed to piss off the Chechens. NATO-GAE also are attempting to grab the black sea to cut Russia off from warm water, hence the Ukraine and Crimea. They have been manufacturing minority rebellions all over Russia, but most of them have not got off the ground. On the contrary, these endless proxy attacks have caused a deep groundswell of patriotism and unity, with even the Chechens turning into enthusiastic Russian patriots, despite the fact that the Russians levelled most Chechen cities during the war.

Russia is an empire, hence naturally fissiparous and apt to suffer disunity, but stubborn persistent efforts by hostile outsiders to take advantage of this natural disunity have instead created unity and patriotism, for it is transparently obvious that the Global American does not much like the people it attempts to use. Apart from Chechnya, the astroturfing was clumsy, and smelled alien, hostile, and foreign. The Chechnyan revolutionary movement was real enough, but the arab “help” smelled bad.

With all their astroturf revolutionary movements inside Russia expiring in shame, they have invaded Russia from outside, using “The Free Russians” — most of whom are not Russian, some of whom are Nato forces thinly disguised, and who are bombarding Russian civilians deep inside Russia from Ukraine with Nato weaponry.

Last nights massive strike on Ukrainian energy facilities was a response to strikes against Russian energy facilities deep inside Russia. A strike on Czech energy facilities would have been a more relevant and appropriate response. Those were primarily Czech weapons that struck Russia, and though launched from within Ukraine, it is unlikely that Ukrainians launched them or controlled their launch.

Over the the past fourteen years, the line of separation between the Global American empire and its many proxies has been steadily fading away, as tends to happen when color revolution fails, as for example Libya, Syria, and the Congo.

A few days ago the Russians stopped calling this a “special military operation” and are now calling it a war. And they are not calling it a war with Ukraine, but rather retaining ambiguity as to whether it is a war with Ukraine allied with Nato, or a war with Nato for Ukraine. It is clear that the terrorist attack on the Moscow theatre was organised by Western intelligence agencies, and this is likely to lead to further redefinition of the war as war with Nato, and likely to lead to Russians escalating to similar use of unconventional war and proxy war against Nato countries.

As the fine line of separation between Nato and its proxies fades away, it is inevitably going to go nuclear unless the Global American Empire and Nato accepts defeat, accepts the loss of Russia, accepts the will of large Russian areas outside of Russia to join Russia, accepts unrestricted Russian access to warm water, and cuts a deal for peace and friendship that accepts the new reality of a multipolar world containing a powerful and independent Russia.