Archive for the ‘war’ Category

Future war

Saturday, October 7th, 2023

Airsea power is going down. After ever increasing efforts to keep their fleet in Sebastopol, the Russians are finally pulling their fleet back, despite clear and overwhelming airsea dominance over Ukraine. If the Russians are pulling their fleet back from Sebastopol, US airsea bases ringing China are just hostages.

Drone warfare has become dominant, and is rapidly becoming more dominant, rendering grunts trudging through mud increasingly irrelevant. In future war the grunts will be sent in to run up the flag and install supply depots for the drones after the battle is won.

The front line is dissolving, becoming ever deeper, broader, vaguer, and more porous. A multitude of bloggers are trying to figure out where the front line is, and legitimately disagree. Hence the meaningless debate on whether the Ukraine has reached the first line of defence, and on whether they have penetrated it. Troops are spread out more and more thinly, because the closer any soldier is to another soldier, the more likely he is to be identified.

No one knows how to do war of movement yet in a conflict of peer powers. It is all horrifying and terrible war of attrition. The Russians have some bright ideas on how to do an offensive, and are trying them out right now, starting this morning. But they are still pussyfooting around because no one knows how to do it yet. Their basic idea is to shut down enemy movement deep within enemy territory, and then the cut off troops will eventually surrender. We shall see what happens. If it works, the surrender is likely to take quite a while. If it works, no one will know that it is working for a quite a while.

Assassination of enemy leaders is still off the table, but targeted killings are moving steadily and rapidly up the chain of command.

Troops attempting to advance are looking more and more like spies and infiltrators, and less and less like an army on the march. The dissolving front line is likely to foreshadow the front line being everywhere, with battles resembling the sudden manifestation of flash crowd, rather than an army advancing. In retrospect the question of whether the Ukrainians reached the first line of defence is likely to be irrelevant and meaningless.

Ukraine counter offensive update.

Monday, September 11th, 2023

I don’t cover the events of the day, but in my previous post I remarked:

This is not a tactic that can be repeated too many times. You continually need fresh troops. And they are now running mighty short of fresh troops. At the moment the offensive is stalled, awaiting the next shipment of fresh cannon fodder. I have repeatedly been surprised by their ability to dig up more cannon fodder, and likely I will be surprised again, but they have been digging mighty hard, and will have to dig a whole lot harder.

One day after that post:

Men with missing limbs have now received callup notices. Next time I need to preen on predictions this is going on the list.

When Napoleon started conscripting men with missing limbs, the end was not far off. And he never considered calling up women in their fifties. I think the Ukrainians have watched too many action girl movies.

Ukrainian ground troops have reached the first line of defence, but it has not been penetrated, in the sense that tanks and armoured personnel carriers cannot drive through it – or even get near it. They dump cannon fodder some distance away, which cannon fodder is then marched over minefields under artillery and drone fire to the first line of defence. Cannon fodder being cheaper and more easily replaceable than tanks or armoured personnel carriers. However, replacing cannon fodder is evidently becoming considerably more difficult.

It will be interesting to see how the war goes when one side is relying on women, cripples, and the elderly.

Three months of the greatest Ukrainian offensive

Tuesday, August 29th, 2023

The offensive seems to be turning out much as it turned out three months ago.

They have tried for a breakthrough in lots of places over a broad front, with uniformly disappointing results. The goal of counter envelopment of Bakhmut was swiftly abandoned early in the offensive. The goal of cutting through to sea of Azov, thus breaking the land bridge to Crimea was downsized to taking Tokmak, which would significantly and substantially impair the land bridge to Crimea. but not actually cut it.

In recent weeks they have abandoned all their other efforts, and thrown everything they have into an advance from their salient at Novandrivka, which they had before the offensive began, towards Tokmak.

The red arrows show how much they have gained in three months.

The red dots represent Russian fortifications. As you can see, they have made a dent, they are significantly closer to Tokmak, but it is still a long way to Tokmak. And Russian doctrine is that the fortifications start out soft, and get more and more formidable the further you go.

The American armored vehicles have proven to be little use. Their advances have come primarily by herding cannon fodder over minefields under fire. This is not a tactic that can be repeated too many times. You continually need fresh troops. And they are now running mighty short of fresh troops. At the moment the offensive is stalled, awaiting the next shipment of fresh cannon fodder. I have repeatedly been surprised by their ability to dig up more cannon fodder, and likely I will be surprised again, but they have been digging mighty hard, and will have to dig a whole lot harder.

Vivek Ramaswami, empire, and Thermidor

Tuesday, August 22nd, 2023

The Republic is dead. No matter what happens, and numerous unexpected and unthinkable twists in the road are coming up, we will end with a Stalin or Napoleon or Cromwell. If we are lucky and brave, a Caesar.

Vivek Ramaswami’s policy positions are wonderful. He tries to out Trump Trump. And some faction in the deep state is protecting him.

But there is something deeply fake about him. And it is most odd that he gets away with stuff which would result in any other namefag being unpersoned. I don’t know what it is, but I have recently found a clue: We had an infestation of Vivek shills on this blog, and when I asked them about Soros’ color revolutionary activities, they softly and silently vanished away.

Looks like his spambots, like vivek himself, cannot speak of anything related to Globohomo empire or the curious lack of any rules in the “rules based order”. They can speak of some of the crimes of Soros, but not of imperialism – which is most of his major crimes and the primary activity of the Open Society Foundation that Vivek warmly endorsed.

Could be that there is a faction that wants to keep Global American Empire, since after all without it a whole lot of people in Washington, New York, and Boston will suddenly be a lot poorer, and figures Globohomo is heading for a train wreck. “Lets keep on doing color revolutions, but use the nazis instead of the gay parade”

Vivek Ramasawami supports the Soros Open Society foundation, fails to criticize the Global American Empire and color revolution, and made his money in bed with the state and quasi state kleptocrats who are getting rich skimming the gravy off the Global American Empire.

The Global American Empire has been suddenly revealed as a paper tiger, due to de-industrialization, and army full of gays, trannies, and coloreds doing logistic work in base areas – camp followers dressed in soldier’s uniforms for stolen valor.
gay trannie colored army of women
Camp followers should wear a different uniform. If you have one man in your army who does not fight, bye and bye there will be no men in your army who fight.

If you are going to keep empire, have to re-industrialize. No prospect of re-industrializing except by Trump and/or Vivek. RFK Jr is anti imperialist, and Trump wants empire downsized by spinning off its unprofitable provinces. The kleptocrats want to keep empire and don’t want downsizing, because the reason the provinces are unprofitable is that the kleptocrats are skimming all the gravy. But the way things are going, the empire is about to fall. Vivek wants to keep empire.

When Vivek talks about the Ukraine, he somehow neglects to criticize empire, or, unlike Trump, even highly unprofitable empire. His proposed solution for Ukraine is to keep empire while not getting up Russia’s nose. It looks like he is backed by an imperialist faction – and of course his entire private career was cosy with the the kleptocrats. His private wealth is all connections to the kleptocracy. Could be that there is a kleptocrat faction that is planning a Thermidor?

If there is a Thermidor, we are going to be the Incroyables. When the left was in retreat, the right felt their oats. The Incroyables failed. Failed horribly. But we have something they did not. We have the lessons of history. The Incroyables failed because they celebrated the degeneracy of the Sun King’s decadent aristocracy of the Robe. Bad idea to identify with losers. This time around, or enemies will want us to identify with the Nazis, following the example of the Ukraine Nazis, who are currently fighting for a gay Jew who does not speak Ukrainian very fluently. The Ukraine Nazis are machine gunning and cluster bombing white Ukrainians who attempt to retreat in a war inflicted on them by far away imperial Jews. It is working for Globohomo in the Ukraine, so they will figure it will work for them here. And it will, if the alt right falls for it.

So, several possible outcomes, listed in order from that which I think most likely, to that least likely.

1. The Thermidorian faction of the elite is killed by the woke faction, no one cares about the nominal president (Robespierre had no official office, role, or title), and the empire cracks up in external war and internal democide and civil war.

2. The Thermidorian faction fails and fades away, a waxed corpse of Biden is elected to maintain the pretence that elections still matter, and the empire cracks up in external war, and possibly internal democide and civil war.

3. The Thermidorian faction installs a Trump/Vivek presidency. Thermidor ensues.

In the unlikely but now possible outcome that the Thermidorean faction installs a Trump/Vivek presidency, next step: The alt right becomes the incroyables. Trump/Vivek will theoretically fire the Deep State, but it will continue right on going with changed office stationary. The Deep State will attempt to massage the alt right into the Ukraine Nazis, and to the extent that they succeed, we will be following the failed footsteps of the Ukraine Nazis and the Incroyables. The Ukrainian Nazis, once no longer useful to Blinken, Nuland, Kagan, and Soros, are going to die after having been used up destroying their race and their nation.

Russia’s draft Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and NATO

Monday, June 12th, 2023

Russian war aims are vastly broader than the Ukraine: In December of 2021, Russia proposed an agreement on “Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization”

The American reaction was shock, indignation, and genuine surprise. Surprise that Russia had the outrageous effrontery to ask for security. The proposed agreement is on its face a completely reasonable deal, just the normal boring behavior of normal states to each other, that should normally go without saying. It was just asking for everyone to act from henceforth as normal neighbors at peace act to each other. But normal neighbors are not the relationship of a hegemon to its subject states, so from the point of view of the hegemon, this was a revolutionary proposal. Subjects of the hegemon get security conditional on doing what they are told, and Russia had failed to hold a gay parade, failed to allow its Churches to be vandalized with rainbow flags, failed to allow the statues of its honored dead to be torn down.

A peace proposal implies the threat of war: What goes unsaid is: “If we cannot have security, neither can you”. And shortly thereafter, Russia gave effect to that threat by invading Ukraine.

The Ukraine does not matter that much, Turkey does not matter that much, Syria does not matter that much. Attriting the population of the Ukraine is a terrible human tragedy, and even if Russia defeats the Ukraine, everyone in Russia and the Ukraine loses. But attriting the Global American Empire’s military capability is an enormous world shaking victory, and Russia has already accomplished it. Russia has already militarily won the big prize, the prize it had its eye on from the beginning. The Global American Empire is no longer militarily capable of doing the things that had so alarmed Russia. Russia has not yet defeated the Ukraine, but it already has already inflicted an enormous defeat on the Global American Empire.

I have repeatedly said that Ukrainian reserves are near exhausted, that the counter offensive is coming to an end. Putin, however, who probably knows better than anyone, and certainly knows better than me, recently stated that they are very far from exhausted, and the analysis coming from people who have been following the war much more closely than I have is that if Ukraine turtles up now, it would likely be years before Kiev is flattened the way Bakhmut was flattened. It does not matter. It is an enormous tragedy that may well go on very a long time. Nato, unable to create shells and tanks because of worship of the Awesome might of the Gaia demon, and because Shaniqua is in charge of the tech team in order to prove that all our tech was stolen from Wakanda, may well try conscripting enormous rivers of meat and hurling them into mouths of cannon, in which case it will matter rather more, but while not much changes in the Ukraine, there has been a quiet but vast change in the world.

The west has run out of shells, and is running out of artillery systems. The US Marines have no M777 howitzers, they have all been sent to Ukraine, where most of them have been destroyed. This means that if the Ukraine turtles up for a long, long war of attrition, a whole lot more shells are going to land on Ukrainian troops than American shells on Russian troops. But, more importantly, far more importantly, it also means the US has no capacity to threaten to destroy any other nation, the way it destroyed Libya. Russia can only intervene directly on its borders, but by winning the war of logistic attrition, it has indirectly intervened everywhere in the world. It might be a stalemate in the Ukraine, but in the world as a whole, an enormous victory. Which means that the Global American Empire is now slowly and quietly coming apart at the seams. If Israel, Thailand, and Hungary take care of their color revolutions, they need not fear any consequences for so doing.

The peace faction in Global American Empire has noticed this, and wants to return to something like the Minsk accords, to allow them to deal with insubordinate subject states elsewhere in empire, but after what happened with the Minsk accords, it is not likely that Russia would be interested. Probably Russia will ask for “Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization”, plus the Russian speaking areas of the Ukraine, and, most importantly Crimea. The Global American Empire is likely to find this unacceptable, but will not necessarily go to full war with Russia, for a full war would not magically materialize shells and tanks. They might just kick the can down the road, as usual. But if the can gets kicked down the road, they will be facing a dire shortage of ammo along that road.

The genocide of the Tutsi in the Congo succeeded because black native government troops in the Congo carrying out the genocide were backed by white troops operating Global American Empire artillery. Today, no Global American Empire artillery. Makes a big difference to ordinary everyday politics in far off countries no one pays any attention to. Much that was impossible and suicidal when the Global American Empire could and would send artillery and air to ground support anywhere, suddenly becomes possible. If the marines have no howitzers, then ethnic group A quarreling with ethnic group B in some far off country no one notices, knows that the disfavor of the Global American Empire is not going to result in them being genocided.

American soft power in the world is similar to BLM and Antifa within America. One faction knows that its violence is off the table, and the other faction, with American government favor, knows that its violence is on the table. If you hold an actually peaceful, but “fascist” protest, you will get beaten up and imprisoned. If you burn down Kenosha, because black lives matter, fiery but mostly peaceful protest. Now governments know that if they repress “fiery but mostly peaceful protests”, the protesters are unlikely to get artillery and air to ground support. This does not help those that the government is oppressing, but does help the government to pursue its own policies without suffering fiery but mostly peaceful color revolutionary protests.

With the death of the legacy media, and the swift disintegration of SWIFT, the soft weapons of deplatforming, cancellation, and demonetization are ceasing to be effective. When the Tutsi tried to organize to resist genocide, their organizations were deplatformed and demonetized, so they used uncut diamonds as money for international arms transactions, because diamonds can be transported through airports, which led to uncut diamonds being demonetized in the blood diamonds attack. A reprise of this operation seems considerably less likely to succeed. If a genocide against some group similar to the Tutsi in the Congo were attempted today, they would not only have no reason to fear American artillery, but the crime would be all over the alt media. They could not be cancelled and deplatformed, and they would have no big problem doing international transactions. That it would not be likely to succeed today is a tremendous blow to American soft power.

The hegemon needs to make things nice for those that go along with its power (remember the scene in life of Brian “what have the Romans ever done for us”), and very unpleasant for those that do not go along with its power. Lately the Global American Empire has been rather less successful in making things nice for those that go along with its power, and its once enormous and terrifying capability to make things very unpleasant indeed for those that do not go along with its power has been exhausted in Ukraine. When color revolution threatens Viktor Orbán, he can tell Hungarians that there will be no consequences for suppressing it, but allowing it to succeed is likely to result in them being fed into the Ukrainian meat grinder. There will be no fiery but mostly peaceful protests in Hungary, because if there were, they would be instantly crushed. Turf in the Ukraine seldom changes hands, but turf in Hungary has quietly changed hands.

People are accustomed to violence blessed by the Global American Empire being safe and fun, and violence, or even peacefully assembling for the redress of grievances that the Global American Empire disapproves of, being terribly dangerous. They have internalized this, accepted it, and take for granted as normal, normative, and expected. And the overwhelming majority still think like that. But suddenly it is not necessarily true. The vast majority of people in the world have not noticed the change, and it will take quite a while to sink in. But it has changed. Nothing dramatic will ensue immediately. It will take a long time for the new reality to percolate down and sink in. But the new reality is here, at least for governments on the periphery of empire who no longer need fear color revolution. For peoples on the periphery of empire, will take a bit longer. For people at the heart of empire, in the belly of the beast, longer still. When the Soviet empire fell, it started with people making trouble far away, and getting away with it, which led to people not so far away making trouble and getting away with it, and eventually Moscow itself fell.

The current proxy war is not only taking place in Ukraine, but also on a much smaller and quieter scale, in Syria. Between the two theaters is Turkey, which is doing a balancing act between Russia and Nato. A major strategic objective of Nato is to recover the Crimea, so that it can isolate Turkey from Russia, and then bring Turkey to heel. Russia needs Turkey for warm water access. Turkey needs Russia, and needs Russian control of Crimea, to avoid Global American Empire attack and conquest. Russia is theoretically an enemy, America theoretically an ally, and they are theoretically a member of Nato, but they have more reason to fear America than Russia. Russian intervention in Syria depends on Turkey allowing it, and Nato is really pissed. Turkey has intervened for Nato in Syria, and yet allowed Russian intervention against Nato in Syria. It has also been attacking Nato proxies in Syria, which proxies are theoretically not American proxies, but the Global American Empire was really pissed. The Global American Empire did not want to own up to owning its proxies, since it was using them for attempted genocide of Alawites and ethnic cleaning of Christians, but neither did it want Turkey shooting at them. Turkey is theoretically at war with the Alawite aligned Syrian government, but there is a strange and suspicious lack of shooting at the Syrian government, and quite a lot of shooting at enemies of Alawites, which the Global American Empire is getting more and more enraged by. There are multiple layers of denial. Turkey is aligned with official Nato policy, and shooting at officially unofficial Global American Empire policy. We have liars lying about lying, and pretenders pretending to pretend. The big strategic goal of Nato in the Ukraine is not to rule the Ukraine, but to rule Turkey. Insofar as the current offensive in the Ukraine has any sane objectives, it is to get to the sea of Azov in order to get to Crimea in order to get to the Black Sea, so that they can safely have a war on Turkey, so that they can, among other things, genocide the Alawites.

A lot of people have noticed that the primary attack direction of the Ukrainian offensive is in the direction where the Russian defenses are strongest. The reason they are attacking in that direction is the same as the reason the Russians put the strongest defenses there – because what lies in that direction is Crimea, which what Globohomo most wants to take, and what Russia most wants to keep. They want to take it, and Russia wants to keep it, for that gives Russia access to the Black Sea, and Turkey permits access from the Black Sea through Turkey to the Mediterranean and Syria. The people who planned this offensive have their eye on their highly unreliable ally, Turkey, an unkind eye. Ukrainians are hoping to reach Melitopol, but Kagan, who probably planned this offensive, is hoping to reach Turkey.

If they cannot genocide peoples they do not like, people are not going to go along with Globohomo and soft power. The empire needs the carrot and the stick. The carrot is not very nice and has been getting worse, and the stick just broke. People have not yet internalized that the stick just broke, but they eventually will.

Possible outcomes of war in the Ukraine

Friday, June 2nd, 2023

Both sides have been fighting in the Ukraine using World War I tactics, and developments in the war have so far recapitulated World War I.

Towards the end of World War I, the Germans, finally realizing they were going to lose the war of attrition, because of the immense industrial capability of America, attempted to regain war of movement, with underwhelming success, and eventually could no longer attempt to do so. They gained considerable territory, which gains merely put them in a worse position to fight the war of attrition. Like the Ukraine, tactical victories but strategic defeats, as with the costly attempt to relieve Bakhmut, which has resulted in them advancing on the flanks of Bakhmut to a position far worse for them in attritive warfare.

The Ukraine has been throwing reserves at various points on the front, with underwhelming success similar to that of the Germans in World War I, which similarly has resulted in gains that put them in a worse position for fighting a war of attrition. They are now moving troops around from one active front to another, which you only do when desperately short of reserves. I previously posted that the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive had started some time ago, and had not been announced for lack of impressive results. That they are redeploying troops involved in active fighting suggests that the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive is now most likely over for lack of reserves, though fog of war makes it hard to speak confidently.

In World War I, the incapacity to mount further attempts at war of movement was followed by 100 days of increasingly rapid and costly German defeats and retreats in attritive warfare, and it became apparent that if the Germans did not make peace on any terms they could get, then eventually there would be attritive warfare all the way to Berlin, most German men would die, and Berlin would be flattened. So they cut a deal where they handed over their heavy weapons, but the army and the nation remained an army and a nation. Without that deal, the war would likely have gone on for years, with enormous costs for everyone, but by far the greatest costs for Germans.

And a sane and capable Global American Empire would accept, in a hundred days or so, the deal that Putin has been offering – assuming it will still be on offer after major retreats and losses in attritive warfare. But a sane and capable Global American Empire would probably have been capable of winning.

So a possible and likely outcome is that the war goes on till Kiev starts being flattened and most Ukrainian men are dead. Which may well take quite a while. At which point there is a significant likelihood that Nato will be thrown in to relieve Kiev.

In a full war between Russia and Nato, neither side has any incentive to refrain escalating all the way to nukes. If Nato intervenes the rationale will be that quick decisive victory is attainable, which is unlikely to be the case. So, nukes.

Do anyone’s nukes still work? My guess is that Global American Empire nukes stopped working a long time ago, but some Russian nukes still work.

Nukes were and are made out of components that deteriorate over time, and have to regularly refurbished, reconditioned and sometimes rebuilt. And if you are not testing, your maintenance process is likely to go off the rails when the men that built those bombs retire. The test ban treaty was a stealth slow motion nuclear disarmament treaty.

If someone’s nukes still work, this is likely to bring the war to a quick and decisive end, with relatively small destruction and casualties. I estimate that only about twenty percent of Americans would die in the course of losing a nuclear war, deaths insignificant compared to abortion and all that, and destruction insignificant compared to the Rust Belt and all the Detroits. No big deal in the broad historical sweep that this blog looks at. If, on the other hand, technological decay means we fight World War I all over again, but this time political decay means that it is fought all the way to the end, the death and destruction could be considerably greater. But perhaps, in a hundred days or so, while the Global American Empire still holds most of the Ukraine, as the Germans still held most of Europe, the Global American Empire will figure out that it is 1918-11-11 all over again.

We shall see.

The Great Ukrainian Counter Offensive

Saturday, May 20th, 2023

Normally I do not report on or respond to the day’s news.  This blog is about what the news of decade or a century ago turned out to mean.  And no end of people are reporting on the day’s news, most of whom have researched it far more thoroughly than I am willing to do.

But, prematurely, I am going to report on what this offensive seems to have turned out to mean.

The original plan of the Global American Empire was to logistically exhaust Russia. “Russia is a gas station masquerading as a nuclear power” “Russia is running on Soviet leftovers.” “Russia’s GDP is less than that of (insert insignificant country here)” The latter meme was an echo of Reagan in the primaries. He did not believe the official story about Soviet GDP pushed by Harvard and the CIA.

Well that does not seem to be working out. Sanctions arguably improved the Russian economy by forcing national capitalism on it from the outside. Living standards have fallen, but not by much, and the Russian entrepreneurial class has been invigorated.

Soviet GDP was as fake as Reagan claimed, but this time around, it is Global American Empire GDP that has been revealed as fake and gay. Nato’s cupboard is bare. Gains and losses of a few square kilometers of chewed up dirt and shattered buildings do not matter. What matters is that Nato is running out. That the meme of “The Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive” was floated was a recognition that the Global American Empire is losing the war of attrition.

The objective of The Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive was to replace slow grinding war of attrition with decisive war of movement. The Ukraine would cut to the Black sea near Mariupol forcing cut off Russian troops to surrender, or at least to abandon the Black sea coast without a fight. They would make a counter envelopment around Bakhmut, forcing Russians to abandon Bakhmut without a fight. They would get turf without slowly and attritively grinding.

The offensive has so far achieved significant tactical Ukrainian victories, but looks increasingly unlikely to give them the hoped for strategic victory, which is probably why they announced it was postponed yet again. It has not been postponed. It has failed so far.

What has happened was that the Ukraine has hurled a good chunk of its reserves at some point on the front, attempting to restore war of movement, and a significant advance happened, often with Russian troops forced to abandon some important chunk of hard won land without a fight, and the the Russians would make some countermove to stop them, and war of attrition resumed. The retreats failed to create cascading weakness. And then they would hurl another good chunk of their reserves at another point on the front. Presumably if the Ukrainians had some important success, the rest of the reserves would have been thrown in and The Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive announced. It has not been announced because each such thrust, though it made important initial gains, soon got stuck.

The theory underlying the Great Ukrainian Offensive is that once reserves have been deployed to a front, it is mighty difficult to adapt to circumstances and opportunities by redeploying them elsewhere.  If you try to redeploy the normal foul ups of war ensue, those left to hold the front are apt to conclude that due to malice, neglect, or chaos, they are being abandoned to die, and decide to mutinously leave, turning the redeployment into a disorderly retreat.  So, if you have reserves, you have choices.  You can strike in one place and not strike in another place.  This restores war of movement when your forces penetrate behind enemy lines, forcing the enemy to swiftly abandon overnight turf won over months or years in the slow grind of attritive warfare. So the Ukraine built up its reserves, for a decisive blow restoring war of movement.

And the Russians were forced to abandon overnight quite a lot of turf that had taken them months to gain. In this sense, substantial tactical victories ensued, which no one seems to be reporting – because the Ukrainians were seeking turf that mattered, and got turf that has so far turned out to not matter much.

One of the big ideas that a lot of pro Ukraine bloggers were talking about was counter envelopment of the Bakhmut cauldron. Ukrainian forces would strike deep into Russian held turf north of Bakhmut and south of Bakhmut, threatening to surround Bakhmut, thus forcing Russians to abandon it without a fight. Or actually surrounding it, forcing Russians to surrender.

And they struck. And they penetrated behind Russian lines, causing a great deal of destruction. This threatened the jaws of Russian cauldron, forcing the Russians on the north and south jaws of the cauldron to abandon overnight much hard won turf, to abandon the jaws of the cauldron. But it did not threaten to envelope Bakhmut with a counter cauldron. On the northern jaw of the cauldron the Russians quickly captured some new turf to recreate a northern jaw for the cauldron in a new, smaller, position, but the Ukrainians successfully forced the southern jaw wide open.

The Russian cauldron that made it difficult for the Ukrainians to supply and replace troops in Bakhmut is no more. This is a big Ukrainian tactical victory. It is a strategic victory, but Bakhmut continues to fall nonetheless. And Ukrainians are still advancing on the flanks north and south of Bakhmut. But it is a strategic defeat, because now it is back to grinding attritive warfare on the flanks, so they have committed their reserves to more of the same old same old. More of the attrition that the Global American Empire cannot afford.

The Ukrainians are now able to pour more and more troops into the tiny little part of south eastern Bakhmut that they still control, and are doing so. They can now pour vast amounts of fresh meat into the same old meat grinder and have done so. That is their strategic victory. I expect the fresh meat to be soon pouring out again, if they are not doing so already.

The Global American Empire still attempting a counter envelopment of Bakhmut, attempting to create a counter cauldron. And they are attempting to recapture areas of Bakhmut that they lost in the little the south east corner that remains, and have had some success. Russians retreated in Bakhmut, and on the flanks. Russians were on the defensive, though they are now back to advancing into the tiny little part of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control. But on the offensive, or on the defensive, on the retreat or on the advance, they are decisively winning the war of attrition. The fall of Bakhmut has been delayed, but probably not delayed a whole lot. Only a square kilometer or so remains in Ukrainian hands.

War of movement was always a long shot. The Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive is far from over, but it is looking like a longer and longer shot. That it was tried at all means that the Global American Empire no longer has confidence in war of attrition. They have realized they are losing the war of attrition.

Normally a war of attrition comes to a negotiated end. The loser usually loses decisively, usually after making increasingly desperate attempts to change the war of attrition to a war of movement, the winner usually wins decisively, the negotiations are one sided, but the loser retains a nation, retains the capacity to recruit and arm an army, and learns from its failures. A decisive defeat in a war of attrition is seldom all that decisive.

But the Global American Empire lacks the capacity to negotiate. This war could continue for quite a while, and may well continue long after the Ukraine becomes a footnote like Serbia in World War I or Poland in World War II.

What they do when reality becomes painfully evident is avert their gaze and look around for some new shiny thing. They may well forget about the war, without attempting to end it, without allowing anyone else to end it.

War and game theory

Saturday, May 13th, 2023

Jesus as game theory: In a world of imperfect information, one tit for two tats.

Old Testament marriage and family law as game theory: If you are stuck with with each other, the deal is going to generate value even if the value very unequally distributed, but if not stuck, prisoner’s dilemma. Negative sum actions are likely to be individually beneficial.

It might seem obvious that if everyone could correctly predict the outcome of a war, no one would go to war. But a little application of game theory reveals that they would, and must, because individually optimum behavior is to act unpredictably.

But in fact most wars do not result from rational actors. It is indeed true that there would be, not no war, but considerably less war if the parties were rational and well informed, albeit rationality is apt to result in concealing information and providing misinformation. (Similarly the market for lemons.) Rather, the problem is that no one can negotiate with the Global American Empire because there is no one to negotiate with. As the Russians say “not agreement capable”. World War I was the same. Austria told Serbia to choose war or peace, because Serbia had been simultaneously pursuing war and peace, and was incapable of choosing.

The Global American Empire consists of “the rules based international order” where only they get to interpret the rules. Which results in them shutting down all efforts by adversaries to communicate. The Taliban was telling us what they were about from 1996 onwards on every channel of communication they could use, and the Global American Empire still to this day has absolutely no idea.

Without the possibility of communication, war.

A hegemonic world order where the hegemon can hear what other parties are saying is likely to be peaceful and cooperative, though obviously most of the value created by that cooperation is going to go to the hegemon, and rather less to the rest. Similarly Mosaic marriage and family. Everyone benefits, but most of the value goes to the husband, and considerably less to the wife. Efforts to remedy this by increasing the power of the wife have necessarily resulted in defect/defect equilibrium, the game of players and bitches. You need a King, and the husband has to be king under his own roof. The sovereign cannot rule alone, and has to support each little king in his own little domain, which little domain excludes all other little Kings, and largely excludes the sovereign.

If benefits of positive sum behavior are distributed in a too severely unequal manner, people will want to change that distribution, which is most effectively done by negative sum behavior.

American soft power consists of shutting down all other voices, so that the Harvard and Mainstream media interpretation of the rules and of the distribution of costs and benefits is the only one that can be heard. Thus one hears no end about white violence against blacks, and nothing of the immensely greater black violence against whites, and similarly for the sexual conduct of men and women.

The trouble with this form of power is: Know your enemy, know yourself, you will prevail in every battle, know yourself but not the enemy, you will lose half the time, know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will lose every time. The Taliban knew America better than globohomo did, but globohomo had absolutely no idea what the Taliban was about, despite the Taliban attempting to tell them loudly and clearly in excellent idiomatic English on every channel that they could. The Global American Empire wanders into wars with no idea what is on the table, or what the enemy intends, for not only is the enemy’s beef with them unspeakable and unthinkable, their beef with the enemy is also unspeakable and unthinkable.

We need everyone to agree, perhaps reluctantly, on a distribution of the benefits of cooperation that may well be rough on some of the parties, but is still fair enough that everyone will be reasonably willing to go along with it, for no man rules alone.

But what is a fair distribution of the value resulting from positive sum behavior? What is every man’s due? Thus game theory and game theoretic marginal economics. Which means people have to know what the rules are, and they also need to know how other people are benefiting or being harmed by those rules. Those rules need to sustain an order such that everyone benefits from cooperation, even if the benefit is apt to be rather one sided. Today, however, no one knows what the rules are and what the costs and benefits are except that whites are always in the wrong, men are always in the wrong, and the Global American empire is always upholding freedom and democracy.

Recent wars are the result of manipulating the flow of information about the costs, benefits, and values of the other parties. Similar to price control resulting in shortages by falsifying information. Globohomo told the Afghans they were doing them a big favor and believed it. The Afghans did not believe it. Globohomo did not hear, could not hear, what the Afghans were telling them in excellent idiomatic English on every channel they could get.

American logistic capability

Thursday, March 30th, 2023

American GDP is fake and gay. American GDP is for the most part not riggers in red states lifting steel, workers on the assembly line, cattle ranchers raising cattle, nor even truckers, warehouses, and shops moving goods from where they are made to where they are used, it is people in blue states doing business in permissions that allow riggers to lift steel and ranchers to raise cattle. American GDP is the HR department, not the trucker.

America produces about a hundred and fifty tomahawk missiles a year. Russia has expended about five thousand or so similar missiles in the Ukraine. Nato is running out, Russia does not appear to be running out.

America’s largest and most capable aircraft carrier is the Nimitz. Built in 1967. Maintenance and repairs are piling up. The Navy has been trying, and failing, to produce new ships for some time, with the result that America’s fleet is shrinking, while China’s grows. The Navy cannot build what it used to be able to build, and cannot maintain and repair what it inherited. The Navy suffers the same disability that NASA suffers. How much of the stuff on the Nimitz is still in order suitable for use in battle?

The Nimitz can deliver that many missiles in a week. But how many missiles does it have to deliver? It was built for an America that could mass produce stuff like that. This is not that America.

The most important, powerful, and effective weapon in the US arsenal is a fifty year old plane firing seventy year old cannons scoured from museums and looted from ancient forgotten overseas arms depots.

In the conflict over the Ukraine, the hollowing out of western industrial capability is showing up.

Right now China could sink the Nimitz. It is in range of Chinese hypersonics at this moment. But order to sink it, it has to be able to see it. War in the Pacific is likely to lead to war in space – in which Musk is the superpower, though since much of his assets are in space, he is very much opposed to space war. America leads by far in space based observation capability, thanks largely to Musk’s ability to lift stuff. But to remove other great power’s capability for space based observation may require assistance he is likely to be reluctant to provide. But he may not have much choice with all his ground assets US based.

Russia and China have crude satellite weapons. But the winner in a space war is likely to be whoever has greater capability to lift stuff to orbit.

All Global American Empire approved political candidates are saying “Russia will be defeated”. You should not want to defeat a nuclear power. You want to push it into an unfavorable deal with military pressure. Which is what the US has been doing for eight years in the Ukraine, except for the deal part. They seem congenitally unable to make a deal. Defeating a nuclear power is likely to become unpleasant. If no deal eventually nukes.

What happens if Nato goes directly to war with Russia?

Well, most of Nato lacks actual soldiers, as became amusingly apparent in the Serbian wars. As I am fond of saying, Britain has a hundred generals, but can only put a hundred boots on the ground. The US has actual soldiers, or had, the number is rapidly diminishing. Probably some Nato countries have actual soldiers. The Ukraine does have actual soldiers, having conscripted just about everyone. Right now they substantially outnumber Russian soldiers in the Ukraine. But they are dependent on Nato logistics, and Russian shells clearly outnumber Ukrainian shells. Direct Nato involvement will not help much with the logistic crisis.

Reagan’s strategy for defeating the Soviet Union was logistic exhaustion, to bleed them in a hundred little wars. That worked, and today the Global American Empire strategy is the same: “Russia is a gas station masquerading as a nuclear power”. This time around however, does not look like it is working. “Russia will be defeated” rests on the claim that Russia is rapidly exhausting its stockpiles. Maybe, but they are not acting as if they are exhausting their stockpiles.

Some time ago the Ukraine tweeted a chart supposedly showing Russian stockpiles and weapons production. According to that chart, they should have run out quite some time ago. Global American Empire quasi state media have been reporting for months that Russia is about to run out. They are drinking their own koolaide.

A few days back, Russia started using what it calls “end guided bombs” to good effect, though it would be more accurate to call them bomber launched glider drones. Obviously these are not coming from its stockpiles. Further, bomber launched glider drones are a more effective, advanced, and modern weapon that what the USA calls end guided bombs.

Some time ago the west decided to send its highly advanced tanks to the Ukraine. These wonder weapons would make short work of the Russians, we are told. They have not arrived. I conjecture a conversation took place that went something like

“How many tanks do we have ready to roll?”

“Well, when they arrive in the Ukraine, certain maintenance procedures will be required, and we will have to make arrangements for those maintenance procedures to be deployed in the Ukraine”

“How long will that take?”

“Well, we are having some delays in deploying them here.”

Perhaps I am being unduly cynical, but the west has a whole lot of warplanes that are “not full spectrum combat ready”. Perhaps it has a similar problem with tanks. The Global American Empire military industrial complex is in the same pickle as Nasa. It has a whole lot of enormously impressive terrifyingly powerful stuff lying around from the days of half a century ago, that it can no longer make, maintain, nor competently use. Exhibit A being the Nimitz and the space shuttle engines. The US Navy is not rapidly shrinking because of budgetary decisions to shrink it. They budgeted to expand it. It is shrinking for the same reason as Nasa was begging the Russians for lifts to the space station. They tried to build warships, and just failed. Tanks and warships are a similar technology. If you cannot build warships, maybe you are only pretending to build tanks.

It is hard to say, for the first casualty of war is truth, but the way the wind blows now, it is not Russia that is running out.

This is related to an earlier post on the fakeness of American GDP afflicting American consumers. Used to be that every moderately competent, moderately industrious, man could afford a home, a garden, children, and a stay at home wife. Used to be that American shopping centers looked like shopping centers for rich people. Now they look like shopping centers for third world people. I was very recently in a big top end third world mall. Looked very nice. On the whole, wealthier, more attractive, and more comfortable ambiance than what I see around here, though most people in that town do their shopping in places more typically third world and Singapore has much nicer places. But if you look at a nice shopping center in Singapore, and what you can find in America, it is like night and day. Singapore shopping centers imply a considerably higher quality of customer than American shopping centers. A typical Chinese restaurant just has a nicer ambiance than the typical American restaurant, the typical Chinese car is nicer than the typical American car, and the typical Singaporean car is way nicer.

They say the pleasant and beautiful old malls disappeared because of economics. Could not compete with Walmart prices. Maybe, but outside the Global American Empire, and on its periphery, I see pleasant and beautiful malls going up.


Thursday, March 23rd, 2023

We have received two huge benefits from the Ukraine war. One is that when Putin intervened in the Ukraine conflict, the Global American Empire everywhere overnight stopped enforcing worship of the awesome and mighty covid demon. The public announcements that masking and jabs were compulsory continued for a while, but everyone ignored them, and gradually they are stopping. Kind of like everyone started ignoring female emancipation when they tossed it in the lead up to World War II, even though it officially remained in force.

Putin cured Covid.

And the other big benefit is Yandex search.

Type a thought crime into a search engine, any search engine in your browser’s list. For example “gay needs to be suppressed”.

You will likely get slim pickings. Similarly, search for information on the war in the Ukraine, or the jab.

Type it into, you get a reasonably balanced collection of links from both sides of the debate.

Replacing your default browser search with yandex is likely to be difficult. You will have to find some little used and obscure ui for adding unlisted search engines, and will have to supply the search url, which for yandex is (Your browser will replace %s with the actual search string.

Next up, I hope for a Russian reply to GPT3

I had hoped for SWIFT replacement, but nothing good yet that I know of. El Salvador is fighting the good fight there. Meanwhile the Afghans continue to cheerfully demonstrate how easily and smoothly one can erase female emancipation.