Jim's Blog

Since the war in the Ukraine is not going too well, the faction currently in the saddle in the Global American Empire is looking for war with Islam.

For a long time the ruling faction has been seeking to converge Islam, and to this end, because they have had considerable success in converging the official faith of Iran, pursued an accommodation policy to Iran. Biden and the generals have now suddenly started talking war with Iran, which is an abrupt and sudden one eighty, and the shill Christians and fake right on Gab and on this blog are now arguing that the current invasion of the west is Jihad by Muslims. During the past forty eight hours, the US government has been issuing threats against Iran, to discourage them from intervening.

A few days before this, the fake Christians and the usual shills and entryists started promoting the Islamic Jihad narrative. Supposedly the current invasion of America is Islamic Jihad. And therefore the right, the reaction, and the Christian Nationalists should support war with Islam now. I should have seen what was coming when the usual shills and entryists on this blog suddenly started complaining about Islamic Jihad, which was a thought crime until a few days ago. Until a few days ago, when I talked about Jihad, the shills would respond as if neither I nor anyone else had ever had that thought. And then a few days before Israel claimed to be engaging Hamas for real, the shills abruptly went to the other extreme.

No it is not Jihad by Muslims. The only reason Mohammedan invaders in America are a problem is that the Democrats. in substantial part the same Jews who organized the brother war in the Ukraine, are importing them to live on crime, welfare, and voting Democrat. We don’t need to fight a war with them. That problem is not Mohammedans, but Democrats, and in grossly disproportionate part, Jewish Democrats. Stop crime, turn off welfare, and turn off voting Democrat, and they will take the next boat home. We can worry about recovering the Holy Land, Egypt, and the bits of Eastern Europe that they have in century or two. The Indians will need to worry a little sooner than that, but we have bigger problems. Our problem being that the officially unofficial state religion is demon worship, and sooner or later there is going to be a holy war inside America over that, for demon worship unopposed always gets crazier and crazier, and demands greater and greater human sacrifices. And in the coming holy war with our officially unofficial state religion, old type Mohammedans will be our allies. Highly unreliable and dangerous allies, but me against my brothers, me and my brothers against our cousins, me and my cousins against the world. In the coming holy war, Muslims are our cousins.

The war in the Ukraine is the work of Blinken, Nuland, Kagan, and Soros. All of whom hate Ukrainians even more than they hate Russians, and hate legacy Americans more than anyone.

Soros, under instruction by the state department, using money provided by the American taxpayer and laundered to Soros by the World Bank, conducted color revolution in the Ukraine, arranging for his own people to be shot in a false flag operation. (Working for the GAE is bad for your health, for it is run by people who hate you) The Ukrainian government was appointed by Victoria Nuland, in a conversation that the Russians bugged and leaked. From 2014 onwards, the Global American Empire appointed government in the Ukraine has been shelling civilians who speak Russian, think themselves Russian, and are considered Russians by Russians. This shelling of civilians came, in large part, from locations a few minutes walk from a heavily fortified officially unofficial Nato base in Avdiika. This program looks like it was instituted, or at least advocated, by Kagan, who is not officially part of the US government, but has the ear of Blinken and Nuland. He was following the Reaganesque strategy of drawing Russia into attritive war to exhaust them, but he is no Reagan. Reagan’s strategy, as he told us in the primaries, was that the Soviet Union had great soft power, but its GDP was fake and gay, so could be logistically exhausted in a multitude of pinprick attritive wars, and its soft power was diminishing, and would diminish a whole lot further with logistic exhaustion. Today, it is the Global American Empire that has great soft power, but its GDP is fake and gay, and its soft power is diminishing.

The current brother war in the Ukraine, which was created and is run by certain Jews, has killed about four hundred thousand Goyim, and the way the wind blows, there may well be nukes soon enough. What have the Mohammedans been up to?

Mostly killing each other over sand. The Arabs cannot get it together, the Taliban are good guys so far. The only guys who could actually prosecute a serious war are the Iranians, and if it is Iran versus Israel, why should I care? Iran is not going to invade America. They might hog the Middle Eastern oil, but we should be developing our own oil. America should be a major oil exporter, and if the Iranians wind up jacking the price of oil through the roof, that is good for us (provided we can crush the worshippers of the Gaia demon) and bad for China. Looks like future war in Afghanistan is going to over water, and to the extent that it is holy war, going to be old type Muslims versus postmodern Muslims. Not our problem.

I don’t cover the events of the day, but in my previous post I remarked:

This is not a tactic that can be repeated too many times. You continually need fresh troops. And they are now running mighty short of fresh troops. At the moment the offensive is stalled, awaiting the next shipment of fresh cannon fodder. I have repeatedly been surprised by their ability to dig up more cannon fodder, and likely I will be surprised again, but they have been digging mighty hard, and will have to dig a whole lot harder.

One day after that post:

Men with missing limbs have now received callup notices. Next time I need to preen on predictions this is going on the list.

When Napoleon started conscripting men with missing limbs, the end was not far off. And he never considered calling up women in their fifties. I think the Ukrainians have watched too many action girl movies.

Ukrainian ground troops have reached the first line of defence, but it has not been penetrated, in the sense that tanks and armoured personnel carriers cannot drive through it – or even get near it. They dump cannon fodder some distance away, which cannon fodder is then marched over minefields under artillery and drone fire to the first line of defence. Cannon fodder being cheaper and more easily replaceable than tanks or armoured personnel carriers. However, replacing cannon fodder is evidently becoming considerably more difficult.

It will be interesting to see how the war goes when one side is relying on women, cripples, and the elderly.

The offensive seems to be turning out much as it turned out three months ago.

They have tried for a breakthrough in lots of places over a broad front, with uniformly disappointing results. The goal of counter envelopment of Bakhmut was swiftly abandoned early in the offensive. The goal of cutting through to sea of Azov, thus breaking the land bridge to Crimea was downsized to taking Tokmak, which would significantly and substantially impair the land bridge to Crimea. but not actually cut it.

In recent weeks they have abandoned all their other efforts, and thrown everything they have into an advance from their salient at Novandrivka, which they had before the offensive began, towards Tokmak.

The red arrows show how much they have gained in three months.

The red dots represent Russian fortifications. As you can see, they have made a dent, they are significantly closer to Tokmak, but it is still a long way to Tokmak. And Russian doctrine is that the fortifications start out soft, and get more and more formidable the further you go.

The American armored vehicles have proven to be little use. Their advances have come primarily by herding cannon fodder over minefields under fire. This is not a tactic that can be repeated too many times. You continually need fresh troops. And they are now running mighty short of fresh troops. At the moment the offensive is stalled, awaiting the next shipment of fresh cannon fodder. I have repeatedly been surprised by their ability to dig up more cannon fodder, and likely I will be surprised again, but they have been digging mighty hard, and will have to dig a whole lot harder.

Russian war aims are vastly broader than the Ukraine: In December of 2021, Russia proposed an agreement on “Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization”

The American reaction was shock, indignation, and genuine surprise. Surprise that Russia had the outrageous effrontery to ask for security. The proposed agreement is on its face a completely reasonable deal, just the normal boring behavior of normal states to each other, that should normally go without saying. It was just asking for everyone to act from henceforth as normal neighbors at peace act to each other. But normal neighbors are not the relationship of a hegemon to its subject states, so from the point of view of the hegemon, this was a revolutionary proposal. Subjects of the hegemon get security conditional on doing what they are told, and Russia had failed to hold a gay parade, failed to allow its Churches to be vandalized with rainbow flags, failed to allow the statues of its honored dead to be torn down.

A peace proposal implies the threat of war: What goes unsaid is: “If we cannot have security, neither can you”. And shortly thereafter, Russia gave effect to that threat by invading Ukraine.

The Ukraine does not matter that much, Turkey does not matter that much, Syria does not matter that much. Attriting the population of the Ukraine is a terrible human tragedy, and even if Russia defeats the Ukraine, everyone in Russia and the Ukraine loses. But attriting the Global American Empire’s military capability is an enormous world shaking victory, and Russia has already accomplished it. Russia has already militarily won the big prize, the prize it had its eye on from the beginning. The Global American Empire is no longer militarily capable of doing the things that had so alarmed Russia. Russia has not yet defeated the Ukraine, but it already has already inflicted an enormous defeat on the Global American Empire.

I have repeatedly said that Ukrainian reserves are near exhausted, that the counter offensive is coming to an end. Putin, however, who probably knows better than anyone, and certainly knows better than me, recently stated that they are very far from exhausted, and the analysis coming from people who have been following the war much more closely than I have is that if Ukraine turtles up now, it would likely be years before Kiev is flattened the way Bakhmut was flattened. It does not matter. It is an enormous tragedy that may well go on very a long time. Nato, unable to create shells and tanks because of worship of the Awesome might of the Gaia demon, and because Shaniqua is in charge of the tech team in order to prove that all our tech was stolen from Wakanda, may well try conscripting enormous rivers of meat and hurling them into mouths of cannon, in which case it will matter rather more, but while not much changes in the Ukraine, there has been a quiet but vast change in the world.

The west has run out of shells, and is running out of artillery systems. The US Marines have no M777 howitzers, they have all been sent to Ukraine, where most of them have been destroyed. This means that if the Ukraine turtles up for a long, long war of attrition, a whole lot more shells are going to land on Ukrainian troops than American shells on Russian troops. But, more importantly, far more importantly, it also means the US has no capacity to threaten to destroy any other nation, the way it destroyed Libya. Russia can only intervene directly on its borders, but by winning the war of logistic attrition, it has indirectly intervened everywhere in the world. It might be a stalemate in the Ukraine, but in the world as a whole, an enormous victory. Which means that the Global American Empire is now slowly and quietly coming apart at the seams. If Israel, Thailand, and Hungary take care of their color revolutions, they need not fear any consequences for so doing.

The peace faction in Global American Empire has noticed this, and wants to return to something like the Minsk accords, to allow them to deal with insubordinate subject states elsewhere in empire, but after what happened with the Minsk accords, it is not likely that Russia would be interested. Probably Russia will ask for “Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization”, plus the Russian speaking areas of the Ukraine, and, most importantly Crimea. The Global American Empire is likely to find this unacceptable, but will not necessarily go to full war with Russia, for a full war would not magically materialize shells and tanks. They might just kick the can down the road, as usual. But if the can gets kicked down the road, they will be facing a dire shortage of ammo along that road.

The genocide of the Tutsi in the Congo succeeded because black native government troops in the Congo carrying out the genocide were backed by white troops operating Global American Empire artillery. Today, no Global American Empire artillery. Makes a big difference to ordinary everyday politics in far off countries no one pays any attention to. Much that was impossible and suicidal when the Global American Empire could and would send artillery and air to ground support anywhere, suddenly becomes possible. If the marines have no howitzers, then ethnic group A quarreling with ethnic group B in some far off country no one notices, knows that the disfavor of the Global American Empire is not going to result in them being genocided.

American soft power in the world is similar to BLM and Antifa within America. One faction knows that its violence is off the table, and the other faction, with American government favor, knows that its violence is on the table. If you hold an actually peaceful, but “fascist” protest, you will get beaten up and imprisoned. If you burn down Kenosha, because black lives matter, fiery but mostly peaceful protest. Now governments know that if they repress “fiery but mostly peaceful protests”, the protesters are unlikely to get artillery and air to ground support. This does not help those that the government is oppressing, but does help the government to pursue its own policies without suffering fiery but mostly peaceful color revolutionary protests.

With the death of the legacy media, and the swift disintegration of SWIFT, the soft weapons of deplatforming, cancellation, and demonetization are ceasing to be effective. When the Tutsi tried to organize to resist genocide, their organizations were deplatformed and demonetized, so they used uncut diamonds as money for international arms transactions, because diamonds can be transported through airports, which led to uncut diamonds being demonetized in the blood diamonds attack. A reprise of this operation seems considerably less likely to succeed. If a genocide against some group similar to the Tutsi in the Congo were attempted today, they would not only have no reason to fear American artillery, but the crime would be all over the alt media. They could not be cancelled and deplatformed, and they would have no big problem doing international transactions. That it would not be likely to succeed today is a tremendous blow to American soft power.

The hegemon needs to make things nice for those that go along with its power (remember the scene in life of Brian “what have the Romans ever done for us”), and very unpleasant for those that do not go along with its power. Lately the Global American Empire has been rather less successful in making things nice for those that go along with its power, and its once enormous and terrifying capability to make things very unpleasant indeed for those that do not go along with its power has been exhausted in Ukraine. When color revolution threatens Viktor Orbán, he can tell Hungarians that there will be no consequences for suppressing it, but allowing it to succeed is likely to result in them being fed into the Ukrainian meat grinder. There will be no fiery but mostly peaceful protests in Hungary, because if there were, they would be instantly crushed. Turf in the Ukraine seldom changes hands, but turf in Hungary has quietly changed hands.

People are accustomed to violence blessed by the Global American Empire being safe and fun, and violence, or even peacefully assembling for the redress of grievances that the Global American Empire disapproves of, being terribly dangerous. They have internalized this, accepted it, and take for granted as normal, normative, and expected. And the overwhelming majority still think like that. But suddenly it is not necessarily true. The vast majority of people in the world have not noticed the change, and it will take quite a while to sink in. But it has changed. Nothing dramatic will ensue immediately. It will take a long time for the new reality to percolate down and sink in. But the new reality is here, at least for governments on the periphery of empire who no longer need fear color revolution. For peoples on the periphery of empire, will take a bit longer. For people at the heart of empire, in the belly of the beast, longer still. When the Soviet empire fell, it started with people making trouble far away, and getting away with it, which led to people not so far away making trouble and getting away with it, and eventually Moscow itself fell.

The current proxy war is not only taking place in Ukraine, but also on a much smaller and quieter scale, in Syria. Between the two theaters is Turkey, which is doing a balancing act between Russia and Nato. A major strategic objective of Nato is to recover the Crimea, so that it can isolate Turkey from Russia, and then bring Turkey to heel. Russia needs Turkey for warm water access. Turkey needs Russia, and needs Russian control of Crimea, to avoid Global American Empire attack and conquest. Russia is theoretically an enemy, America theoretically an ally, and they are theoretically a member of Nato, but they have more reason to fear America than Russia. Russian intervention in Syria depends on Turkey allowing it, and Nato is really pissed. Turkey has intervened for Nato in Syria, and yet allowed Russian intervention against Nato in Syria. It has also been attacking Nato proxies in Syria, which proxies are theoretically not American proxies, but the Global American Empire was really pissed. The Global American Empire did not want to own up to owning its proxies, since it was using them for attempted genocide of Alawites and ethnic cleaning of Christians, but neither did it want Turkey shooting at them. Turkey is theoretically at war with the Alawite aligned Syrian government, but there is a strange and suspicious lack of shooting at the Syrian government, and quite a lot of shooting at enemies of Alawites, which the Global American Empire is getting more and more enraged by. There are multiple layers of denial. Turkey is aligned with official Nato policy, and shooting at officially unofficial Global American Empire policy. We have liars lying about lying, and pretenders pretending to pretend. The big strategic goal of Nato in the Ukraine is not to rule the Ukraine, but to rule Turkey. Insofar as the current offensive in the Ukraine has any sane objectives, it is to get to the sea of Azov in order to get to Crimea in order to get to the Black Sea, so that they can safely have a war on Turkey, so that they can, among other things, genocide the Alawites.

A lot of people have noticed that the primary attack direction of the Ukrainian offensive is in the direction where the Russian defenses are strongest. The reason they are attacking in that direction is the same as the reason the Russians put the strongest defenses there – because what lies in that direction is Crimea, which what Globohomo most wants to take, and what Russia most wants to keep. They want to take it, and Russia wants to keep it, for that gives Russia access to the Black Sea, and Turkey permits access from the Black Sea through Turkey to the Mediterranean and Syria. The people who planned this offensive have their eye on their highly unreliable ally, Turkey, an unkind eye. Ukrainians are hoping to reach Melitopol, but Kagan, who probably planned this offensive, is hoping to reach Turkey.

If they cannot genocide peoples they do not like, people are not going to go along with Globohomo and soft power. The empire needs the carrot and the stick. The carrot is not very nice and has been getting worse, and the stick just broke. People have not yet internalized that the stick just broke, but they eventually will.

Normally I do not report on or respond to the day’s news.  This blog is about what the news of decade or a century ago turned out to mean.  And no end of people are reporting on the day’s news, most of whom have researched it far more thoroughly than I am willing to do.

But, prematurely, I am going to report on what this offensive seems to have turned out to mean.

The original plan of the Global American Empire was to logistically exhaust Russia. “Russia is a gas station masquerading as a nuclear power” “Russia is running on Soviet leftovers.” “Russia’s GDP is less than that of (insert insignificant country here)” The latter meme was an echo of Reagan in the primaries. He did not believe the official story about Soviet GDP pushed by Harvard and the CIA.

Well that does not seem to be working out. Sanctions arguably improved the Russian economy by forcing national capitalism on it from the outside. Living standards have fallen, but not by much, and the Russian entrepreneurial class has been invigorated.

Soviet GDP was as fake as Reagan claimed, but this time around, it is Global American Empire GDP that has been revealed as fake and gay. Nato’s cupboard is bare. Gains and losses of a few square kilometers of chewed up dirt and shattered buildings do not matter. What matters is that Nato is running out. That the meme of “The Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive” was floated was a recognition that the Global American Empire is losing the war of attrition.

The objective of The Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive was to replace slow grinding war of attrition with decisive war of movement. The Ukraine would cut to the Black sea near Mariupol forcing cut off Russian troops to surrender, or at least to abandon the Black sea coast without a fight. They would make a counter envelopment around Bakhmut, forcing Russians to abandon Bakhmut without a fight. They would get turf without slowly and attritively grinding.

The offensive has so far achieved significant tactical Ukrainian victories, but looks increasingly unlikely to give them the hoped for strategic victory, which is probably why they announced it was postponed yet again. It has not been postponed. It has failed so far.

What has happened was that the Ukraine has hurled a good chunk of its reserves at some point on the front, attempting to restore war of movement, and a significant advance happened, often with Russian troops forced to abandon some important chunk of hard won land without a fight, and the the Russians would make some countermove to stop them, and war of attrition resumed. The retreats failed to create cascading weakness. And then they would hurl another good chunk of their reserves at another point on the front. Presumably if the Ukrainians had some important success, the rest of the reserves would have been thrown in and The Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive announced. It has not been announced because each such thrust, though it made important initial gains, soon got stuck.

The theory underlying the Great Ukrainian Offensive is that once reserves have been deployed to a front, it is mighty difficult to adapt to circumstances and opportunities by redeploying them elsewhere.  If you try to redeploy the normal foul ups of war ensue, those left to hold the front are apt to conclude that due to malice, neglect, or chaos, they are being abandoned to die, and decide to mutinously leave, turning the redeployment into a disorderly retreat.  So, if you have reserves, you have choices.  You can strike in one place and not strike in another place.  This restores war of movement when your forces penetrate behind enemy lines, forcing the enemy to swiftly abandon overnight turf won over months or years in the slow grind of attritive warfare. So the Ukraine built up its reserves, for a decisive blow restoring war of movement.

And the Russians were forced to abandon overnight quite a lot of turf that had taken them months to gain. In this sense, substantial tactical victories ensued, which no one seems to be reporting – because the Ukrainians were seeking turf that mattered, and got turf that has so far turned out to not matter much.

One of the big ideas that a lot of pro Ukraine bloggers were talking about was counter envelopment of the Bakhmut cauldron. Ukrainian forces would strike deep into Russian held turf north of Bakhmut and south of Bakhmut, threatening to surround Bakhmut, thus forcing Russians to abandon it without a fight. Or actually surrounding it, forcing Russians to surrender.

And they struck. And they penetrated behind Russian lines, causing a great deal of destruction. This threatened the jaws of Russian cauldron, forcing the Russians on the north and south jaws of the cauldron to abandon overnight much hard won turf, to abandon the jaws of the cauldron. But it did not threaten to envelope Bakhmut with a counter cauldron. On the northern jaw of the cauldron the Russians quickly captured some new turf to recreate a northern jaw for the cauldron in a new, smaller, position, but the Ukrainians successfully forced the southern jaw wide open.

The Russian cauldron that made it difficult for the Ukrainians to supply and replace troops in Bakhmut is no more. This is a big Ukrainian tactical victory. It is a strategic victory, but Bakhmut continues to fall nonetheless. And Ukrainians are still advancing on the flanks north and south of Bakhmut. But it is a strategic defeat, because now it is back to grinding attritive warfare on the flanks, so they have committed their reserves to more of the same old same old. More of the attrition that the Global American Empire cannot afford.

The Ukrainians are now able to pour more and more troops into the tiny little part of south eastern Bakhmut that they still control, and are doing so. They can now pour vast amounts of fresh meat into the same old meat grinder and have done so. That is their strategic victory. I expect the fresh meat to be soon pouring out again, if they are not doing so already.

The Global American Empire still attempting a counter envelopment of Bakhmut, attempting to create a counter cauldron. And they are attempting to recapture areas of Bakhmut that they lost in the little the south east corner that remains, and have had some success. Russians retreated in Bakhmut, and on the flanks. Russians were on the defensive, though they are now back to advancing into the tiny little part of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control. But on the offensive, or on the defensive, on the retreat or on the advance, they are decisively winning the war of attrition. The fall of Bakhmut has been delayed, but probably not delayed a whole lot. Only a square kilometer or so remains in Ukrainian hands.

War of movement was always a long shot. The Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive is far from over, but it is looking like a longer and longer shot. That it was tried at all means that the Global American Empire no longer has confidence in war of attrition. They have realized they are losing the war of attrition.

Normally a war of attrition comes to a negotiated end. The loser usually loses decisively, usually after making increasingly desperate attempts to change the war of attrition to a war of movement, the winner usually wins decisively, the negotiations are one sided, but the loser retains a nation, retains the capacity to recruit and arm an army, and learns from its failures. A decisive defeat in a war of attrition is seldom all that decisive.

But the Global American Empire lacks the capacity to negotiate. This war could continue for quite a while, and may well continue long after the Ukraine becomes a footnote like Serbia in World War I or Poland in World War II.

What they do when reality becomes painfully evident is avert their gaze and look around for some new shiny thing. They may well forget about the war, without attempting to end it, without allowing anyone else to end it.