Jim's Blog

Britain was a sea power and sea empire, the US an airsea empire.

And it has just suffered a defeat from Yemen, following the awesomely incompetent flight from Afghanistan. Global American Empire ships now have to sail around the horn of Africa. Not a good look for the unipower.

All countries lie about GDP and CPI, though some lie a lot more extravagantly than others.

Flying into the airport and looking out the plane window, America does not look like a wealthy, technologically advanced country. Walking through the airport, let alone the subway station, looks poor. Walking through a high end shopping centre, does not look all that high end.

Looking at the arms it is able to supply Ukraine, does not look like a wealthy, technologically advanced country.

The best indicator of real GDP per capita is energy usage per capita, because everything about a comfortable modern lifestyle takes a lot of energy, energy comes into everything people do and consume. This was rising exponentially to 1972, when the rise suddenly halted. It then started fall, slowly. And suddenly it has now started to fall rather more quickly and dramatically. It looks like three trend regimes: Exponential growth starting in the seventeenth century, then stagnation and slow decline starting in 1972, and now it looks like the beginning of dramatic collapse, looks like the beginning of a sharp break in the trend of slow and gentle decline.

This reflects a regime ever more hostile to the men who made it great, to the faith that made it great, the culture that made it great, and race that made it great.

The collapse in military recruitment reveals that the grandsons of the men who conquered the world for America know the regime hates them.

As its lies failed, it resorted increasingly to terrible coercion, as in Serbia. Now coercion is failing abroad. How long will coercion continue to succeed in the heart of empire?

The ISW (State Department) position is that if America sticks its head up its ass hard enough, the problem will go away. And on past performance, that is what America is going to do.

The ISW, which is the voice of the State Department, complains that

A Ukraine strong enough to deter and defeat any future Russian aggression with an economy strong enough to prosper without large amounts of foreign aid is the only outcome of Russia’s war that the United States and the West should accept

And if an unacceptable outcome happens, like the Ukrainian economy being levelled to the ground, the Ukraine’s army collapsing in attritive warfare, and the Russians installing a Marshall Petain in Kiev?

This is like someone jumping off a cliff and half way to the jagged rocks at the bottom, declaring that the only acceptable outcome is that he lands like a feather.

The last of the Greatest Ukrainian Offensive seems to have ended today, or is ending, with the Ukrainians throwing in the towel at Krynky. Our rulers have been showing internal division, with some of them deciding that the Greatest Ukrainian Offensive ended a long while ago, with the result that Krinky became strangely invisible to them, some of them hailing Krinky as a mighty Ukrainian victory which was about to cause the collapse of Russia and the fall of Putin, and some of them noticing the facts on the ground – that it was a killing field for the Ukrainian army, with life expectancy for troops of a day or so, and highly unlikely to get much further than it had gotten, but producing clever rationalisations that the Russian were hurting even worse.

For some months the Russians have been increasingly on the offensive. And those offensives have been costly. The gains in turf have been absolutely insignificant, something in the ballpark of a square kilometre a day, but the gains in positional advantage for a war of attrition have been significant. When a local Russian offensive succeeds (and it frequently fails) they grab a strong point where the lie of the land and/or human built defences make it strong. And they then have a strong salient poking into weak Ukrainian territory, which becomes a killing field for Ukrainians. And then they cheerfully let the Ukrainians hang out in the killing fields until the Ukrainians decide to leave, whereupon it is time to grab another salient.

So far the Ukrainians have shown absolutely no sign of getting wise to this strategy, though giving up on Krinky may mean it is finally starting to sink in. They tend to hang on to unfavourable turf, and the Russians let them keep it.

The Ukrainian offensive was predicated on the reverse strategy – they would charge through at the weakest point, which was generally between strong points on either side, and then charge forth all the way to the Azov sea, whereupon those strong points, now cut off, would fall like ripe fruit. This was Kagan’s plan. I thought it moronic when he told us, and even more moronic to tell the plan on Youtube months in advance of attempting to carry it out, so the Russians would have lots of time to get ready for it. What predictably happened of course was that the Ukrainans found themselves in trapped in weak point salients surrounded by strong points, and the weak point salients became killing fields.

The Ukrainians seem to have become increasing reluctant to provide Krinky with the fresh cannon fodder it endlessly needs, or are just having some difficulty rounding up fresh cannon fodder.

The reason Krinky has been so bad for the Ukrainians is not because it is a natural weak point – it is just a random point on the delta much the same as everything around it. The problem is that everything has to be supplied in small unarmored boats that have to cross a broad river in plain sight from a long distance away, and these boats cannot carry heavy weapons. And the journey back is even more dangerous, because by the time the small unarmoured boat reaches a drop off points and drops off the latest cannon fodder, it has likely been spotted. Except during heavy rain or snow, it is a one way trip. Also the surface of the river is now turning to icy slush, too strong to drive a boat through, too weak to walk over. The boats creep slowly through the thickening slush. Maybe they have not stopped sending boats to cross the river, the boats may have stopped reaching their destinations.

The Russians have been fighting a war of attrition. The Ukrainians have been stubbornly and unusccesfully attempting to fight a war of movement, on the the instructions of deluded people from Washington. But now the tune is changing to war of attrition, to be followed by negotiations once the Russians are exhausted. Except that it is the Ukrainians that are becoming exhausted.

The killing and dying could continue for years, but the writing is on the wall. It has been on the wall for some time. The armies of the Ukraine might be able to hold the line for years, and then collapse, or months, and then collapse.

This war resembles world war I, a static war of immovable front lines, until one side collapses from attrition, though advancing drone technology and production might change that to drone on drone air warfare, and drone on drone operator air to ground warfare.

The question that remains to be revealed, is how long this goes for before the Ukrainians collapse. Signs of strain are showing. We are seeing the ruling elite, here and in the Ukraine, develop increasing amnesia and blindness, which is how they handle defeats. They unhappen them.

Their current plan, insofar as they have a plan rather than an amnesia attack, is that static warfare should continue, leading somehow to negotiations. But static warfare only leads to negotiations when the losing side realises that their negotiating position is very bad and is only going to change for the worse. And, during war, information channels that could lead to that realisation tend to get shut down.

War is a test of will and capability. Maximum will is akin to madness, but is not madness at all. What, however, we tend to observe in practice, is madness substituted for will. Rational conduct would be, once will and capability was revealed, to negotiate a peace based on what was revealed. This seldom happens in practice, and with the kind of reality blind elite we have now, even less likely to happen. Collective sanity is harder than individual sanity, because collective action is harder than individual action, and wars tend to happen because on or both sides are incapable of acting as a single cohesive unitary rational individual.

World War I started because Serbia was incapable of deciding between war and peace, incapable of choosing peace while unwilling to choose war. It became a two front war because the German generals ignored the Kaiser and invaded neutral Belgium. When you are up to your neck in alligators, bad idea to invade anyone, let alone a neutral. Likely it would have become a two front war anyway, but if it became a two front war through France invading Germany, rather than Germany invading Belgium, Germany would have had fewer enemies, and France fewer allies. If you invade a neutral unprovoked, everyone is going to figure you need to be taken out, lest you invade them next. The Kaiser understood this, while the Generals merely understood war. There is plenty of blame to go around on both sides for starting the war. No one should have supported Serbia, since the regime was incapable of rational action or decision making, but if the Germans had not invaded Belgium, the blame for starting the war would have been entirely on Russia, and on France if France attacked, which was far from certain. Germany attacked France through Belgium because France might attack Germany. Which might have been sane had Germany not already been at war with Russia.

The Serbians complained that Austria’s demands were an insult to their sovereignty, which they were, but the reason for the demands was that Serbia was incapable of exercising sovereignty over itself, incapable of restraining its minority war faction from making war. If we think of Serbia as an individual, it was an individual with a bad case of schizophrenia, and a schizophrenic’s neighbours have little choice but to interfere with his sovereignty.

Germany lost the war, because it kept stubbornly trying to regain war of movement in France, to knock France out of the war in a quick blow, as the ISW has been stubbornly trying to knock Russia out the war with a quick blow. This was more generals trying to prove that invading Belgium had been a good idea, than it was a rational military strategy. And trying to take Russia out with a quick blow is the ISW trying to prove that endlessly provoking Russia with ever escalating provocations and threats has been a good idea.

Rational behaviour would be to cut a deal on the basis of the cards that are now lying face up on the table. What is likely to happen instead is ever deeper and ever stronger delusion.

The neocons write (hat tip Simplicius) that America is an idea, and that idea is at risk of being lost, and that if the idea falls, America will fall.

They attribute this, of course, to Russian disinfo and Russian influence, not to them silencing freedom of speech, rigging elections, and forcing woke down everyone’s throat, but this is just point deer make horse. They can see the deer and they are afraid.

America is an idea. America is a choice. America is a belief in the value of action. US domestic resilience and global power come in no small part from people and countries choosing the United States and from Americans preserving their agency to act with intent. An adversary learning how to alter these realities is an existential threat — especially when ideas are that adversary’s core weapon.

Of course ideas are not Russia’s core weapon. Putin is almost as scared of the ideas that are frightening them as they are. Ideas are our core weapon. Russia does not frighten them. Whatever happens in Eastern Europe, they will be far from Russian drones and Russian artillery, We frighten them.

Simplicius tells us:

America the Myth floated along during all of this. It was a shared catechism of the American religion, but is becoming harder to swallow. We are becoming American Atheists and when the people stop believing in their own myths they perish.

Well, to survive we need a new myth. Or better, a very old one. One that has been regularly tried before.

The neocons tell us:

Russia’s true sphere is its global information space — communities penetrated by the Russian narratives, including in the United States

But, of course, Russia’s narrative is not penetrating us. That is point deer make horse, 指鹿為馬. On the contrary, our narrative is penetrating Russia. Putin had to be dragged kicking and screaming into holy war. He wanted a cabinet war, and was profoundly reluctant to let go of it. That is not Russia’s true sphere. This is our sphere.

The white boys from rural America decline to sign up to die for Israel and ensure that goat herder’s daughters get taught to put a condom on a banana. Our enemies know why they are not signing up.

That they know is why they are starting to hesitate a little on woke, on censorship, and may well hesitate on the more flagrant and outrageous forms of election rigging. But they are only backing off a little bit. It will likely prove far too much, and far too little. Far too little to get troops to sign up and for the public to start believing in America again, far too much in that much pent up and long suppressed outrage is going flood through the crack in the slightly opened gates. And then they, or a faction among them, will likely attempt to shut the gates again, which could get more interesting than the first time they shut the gates, for the first time they shut the gates they thought that the normal of the early Obama years would return, and America would conquer Russia. The next time no one is going to believe in Covid and Climate and all that.

War is a test of will and capability.

The test has been performed, and the result is apparent, and now is apparent to everyone. The Global American Empire GDP is fake and gay, created by fraudulently manipulating cpi figures, and consisting of the magic paper wealth of the FIRE economy of the blue state megalopoli. Russian production of drones and shells is many times greater than the entire production of the Global American Empire.

And as for will, there are no Ukrainian commissioned officers within sixty kilometres of the Ukraine front line. Ukrainian commissioned officers get killed by deep penetration long range drones. Russian commissioned officers get killed during deep penetrations into enemy territory. Ukrainian conscription is rounding up old men, cripples, and women from their equivalent of red state flyover country, including pregnant women, rounding up people they hate, despise, and want dead, and dumping them into the trenches to soak up Russian artillery and drone strikes, while young men party in the nightclubs of Kiev with the wives, daughters (and in some cases granddaughters) of the men dying on the front, while sons of the Moscow elite are joining voluntarily, semi voluntarily, or getting conscripted. Increasingly, the men on the career track to high command in the Russian forces are men hardened in battle. Anyone hardened in battle on the Global American Empire side is on the career track to a graveyard or a wheelchair.

The Global American Empire now needs to adjust its policies, posture, and actions, to a reality where it has been tested and has failed. But our elite remain in stubborn denial, living in the paper reality of a unipolar world. Perhaps they will remain in denial till the nukes fly.

When the order went forth to defend Avdeeka to the last man, all commissioned officers and all Nato forces were immediately withdrawn — the order was interpreted as “Defend Avdeeka to the last cheap expendable Ukrainian”. If you are a cheap expendable grunt fighting for the side that has superior will and capability, you will probably be OK. If you are cheap expendable grunt fighting for the side that has inferior will and capability, you will die. And now everyone knows which side has superior will and capability.

Since the war in the Ukraine is not going too well, the faction currently in the saddle in the Global American Empire is looking for war with Islam.

For a long time the ruling faction has been seeking to converge Islam, and to this end, because they have had considerable success in converging the official faith of Iran, pursued an accommodation policy to Iran. Biden and the generals have now suddenly started talking war with Iran, which is an abrupt and sudden one eighty, and the shill Christians and fake right on Gab and on this blog are now arguing that the current invasion of the west is Jihad by Muslims. During the past forty eight hours, the US government has been issuing threats against Iran, to discourage them from intervening.

A few days before this, the fake Christians and the usual shills and entryists started promoting the Islamic Jihad narrative. Supposedly the current invasion of America is Islamic Jihad. And therefore the right, the reaction, and the Christian Nationalists should support war with Islam now. I should have seen what was coming when the usual shills and entryists on this blog suddenly started complaining about Islamic Jihad, which was a thought crime until a few days ago. Until a few days ago, when I talked about Jihad, the shills would respond as if neither I nor anyone else had ever had that thought. And then a few days before Israel claimed to be engaging Hamas for real, the shills abruptly went to the other extreme.

No it is not Jihad by Muslims. The only reason Mohammedan invaders in America are a problem is that the Democrats. in substantial part the same Jews who organized the brother war in the Ukraine, are importing them to live on crime, welfare, and voting Democrat. We don’t need to fight a war with them. That problem is not Mohammedans, but Democrats, and in grossly disproportionate part, Jewish Democrats. Stop crime, turn off welfare, and turn off voting Democrat, and they will take the next boat home. We can worry about recovering the Holy Land, Egypt, and the bits of Eastern Europe that they have in century or two. The Indians will need to worry a little sooner than that, but we have bigger problems. Our problem being that the officially unofficial state religion is demon worship, and sooner or later there is going to be a holy war inside America over that, for demon worship unopposed always gets crazier and crazier, and demands greater and greater human sacrifices. And in the coming holy war with our officially unofficial state religion, old type Mohammedans will be our allies. Highly unreliable and dangerous allies, but me against my brothers, me and my brothers against our cousins, me and my cousins against the world. In the coming holy war, Muslims are our cousins.

The war in the Ukraine is the work of Blinken, Nuland, Kagan, and Soros. All of whom hate Ukrainians even more than they hate Russians, and hate legacy Americans more than anyone.

Soros, under instruction by the state department, using money provided by the American taxpayer and laundered to Soros by the World Bank, conducted color revolution in the Ukraine, arranging for his own people to be shot in a false flag operation. (Working for the GAE is bad for your health, for it is run by people who hate you) The Ukrainian government was appointed by Victoria Nuland, in a conversation that the Russians bugged and leaked. From 2014 onwards, the Global American Empire appointed government in the Ukraine has been shelling civilians who speak Russian, think themselves Russian, and are considered Russians by Russians. This shelling of civilians came, in large part, from locations a few minutes walk from a heavily fortified officially unofficial Nato base in Avdiika. This program looks like it was instituted, or at least advocated, by Kagan, who is not officially part of the US government, but has the ear of Blinken and Nuland. He was following the Reaganesque strategy of drawing Russia into attritive war to exhaust them, but he is no Reagan. Reagan’s strategy, as he told us in the primaries, was that the Soviet Union had great soft power, but its GDP was fake and gay, so could be logistically exhausted in a multitude of pinprick attritive wars, and its soft power was diminishing, and would diminish a whole lot further with logistic exhaustion. Today, it is the Global American Empire that has great soft power, but its GDP is fake and gay, and its soft power is diminishing.

The current brother war in the Ukraine, which was created and is run by certain Jews, has killed about four hundred thousand Goyim, and the way the wind blows, there may well be nukes soon enough. What have the Mohammedans been up to?

Mostly killing each other over sand. The Arabs cannot get it together, the Taliban are good guys so far. The only guys who could actually prosecute a serious war are the Iranians, and if it is Iran versus Israel, why should I care? Iran is not going to invade America. They might hog the Middle Eastern oil, but we should be developing our own oil. America should be a major oil exporter, and if the Iranians wind up jacking the price of oil through the roof, that is good for us (provided we can crush the worshippers of the Gaia demon) and bad for China. Looks like future war in Afghanistan is going to over water, and to the extent that it is holy war, going to be old type Muslims versus postmodern Muslims. Not our problem.

I don’t cover the events of the day, but in my previous post I remarked:

This is not a tactic that can be repeated too many times. You continually need fresh troops. And they are now running mighty short of fresh troops. At the moment the offensive is stalled, awaiting the next shipment of fresh cannon fodder. I have repeatedly been surprised by their ability to dig up more cannon fodder, and likely I will be surprised again, but they have been digging mighty hard, and will have to dig a whole lot harder.

One day after that post:

Men with missing limbs have now received callup notices. Next time I need to preen on predictions this is going on the list.

When Napoleon started conscripting men with missing limbs, the end was not far off. And he never considered calling up women in their fifties. I think the Ukrainians have watched too many action girl movies.

Ukrainian ground troops have reached the first line of defence, but it has not been penetrated, in the sense that tanks and armoured personnel carriers cannot drive through it – or even get near it. They dump cannon fodder some distance away, which cannon fodder is then marched over minefields under artillery and drone fire to the first line of defence. Cannon fodder being cheaper and more easily replaceable than tanks or armoured personnel carriers. However, replacing cannon fodder is evidently becoming considerably more difficult.

It will be interesting to see how the war goes when one side is relying on women, cripples, and the elderly.