Condition of the Maidan regime in January 2025

On available data, it looks as during this war, and in the lead up to this war, the Maidan regime recruited and conscripted about two and a half million men. The regime says the current size of its army is nine hundred thousand men under arms, but it looks more like two or three hundred thousand thousand men under arms, because the Russian army has seven hundred thousand men under arms on the Ukraine front, and outnumbers Ukrainian troops by two or three to one almost everywhere along the front, according to both Russian and Ukrainian social media posts from the front.

So what happened to rest of them?

The Maidan regime is having difficulty conscripting more, due to flight, resistance, men hiding in strange places, and mass desertion, but, according to Zelensky, the main limit on conscripting more is not resistance but equipment, prosaic ordinary routine military equipment, which is entirely plausible because Nato has been stripped bare. Since the Ukraine is downstream of Nato logistics, it is reasonable to suppose that they are even harder up than Nato. Also Nato can get away with only equipping its troops on paper, but when you send troops to the front line with equipment that exists only on paper (which the Maidan regime has sometimes done) things do not go well. When the current Middle Eastern unpleasantness started, Israel discovered that a lot of their equipment only existed on paper, because the real stuff had been sent to the Ukraine. If that was the condition of Israel, you can imagine how things are in the rest of the Globohomo empire.

Since the Russian attempt to take Kiev by coup de maine failed, Russia has been fighting a war of attrition whose primary military objective is not to gain, or even hold, turf, but to physically destroy the Ukrainian army and Nato’s equipment.

The Maidan regime has been fighting a war for bullet points on tomorrow’s power point presentation in Washington. Their military objective is the next aid installment.

Reflect on the recent Maidan regime counter counter offensive in Kursk. They scraped together a couple of thousand fighting men, plus sufficient armored vehicles to transport them, from fronts where they and their equipment were vitally needed. They equipped all the vehicles with drone jammers, of which they even shorter than they are of vehicles, sent them to Kursk, and then successfully seized their objective, some undefended and entirely indefensible snow covered pasture lands in Kursk. (Possibly because any defensible location in the possession of the Russians was defended.) The usual shills proclaimed a triumphant victory and a big black eye for Putin, though I doubt that an indefensible patch of snow covered pasture is a very big black eye.

The men dumped on snow covered pasture land were not wearing snow camo, but desert camo. With no shelter, they had better have had snow gear, or else’s Russia’s greatest ally, General Winter, took care of them when night fell before the Russians could.

The men survived long enough to be a bullet point on the day’s power point presentation, then they died. Not all of the armored vehicles were lost, though a great many of them were, but the men unloaded at the objectives were never picked up again, and I doubt that there was ever any real intent to attempt to pick them up again, for the Maidan regime, though very short of meat, is even shorter of equipment to move the meat around, and even shorter still on drone jammers for that equipment.

Recollect the 2023 greatest Ukrainian counter offensive, which in 2023 September was still being hailed a mighty victory, and a sign that Russia was on the ropes and would very soon collapse, the collapse to be followed by a gay parade in Red square and war crimes tribunals in the Kremlin. It was supposedly a mighty victory because the Ukrainian army had reached the first Russian line of defence, the first of three. But by July-August the Ukrainian army had ceased to be capable of further advance, because of enormous losses of men and equipment, and because Nato artillery barrels had worn out and were not being replaced.

The Washington consensus is that because of terrible losses in Ukraine and unsustainable economic cost, Russia is desperate to make peace and will accept a humiliating and disastrous freeze in the conflict. Trump appears to be more in contact with reality, but is reluctant to inform those around him, many of whom do not want to believe it.

Assuming that Maidan conscripted two and half million men, and has three hundred thousand left, Russia is about seven eighths of the way to accomplishing its objectives by military means without negotiation. Not all of the missing men are dead, wounded or prisoners. Probably some of them have deserted and are in hiding, or have snuck into Russian controlled territory after throwing down their arms, or were in place when the front moved over them, then discarded their arms and uniforms, and addressed the winners in their best Russian.

Ending the war

Right now, the US is in a weak negotiating position. And if the Ukrainian army vanishes and the Maidan government withdraws to their Washington and Massachusetts mansions, this will not settle the war the way the disappearance of the Afghan army and the withdrawal of Afghan government settled the Afghan war, because Washington and Moscow have engaged in horizontal escalation against each other over half the world. And because Nato logistics are being exhausted even faster than the Ukrainian meat supply, Russia will then be in a good position to settle these escalations the way it will have settled the Maidan coup, whereupon the US will find itself in an even weaker negotiating position.