Jim's Blog

The stimulus is finally taking effect.  As Zimbabwe and the Wiemar Republic demonstrate, one thing that governments armed with the ability to print fiat money really can do is stimulate.

From 2009 May to 2011 November total business sales in dollars rose twenty six percent, ten percent a year, which to me, though not to Bernanke, looks like good reason to scream panic and hit the brakes, to raise real interest rates to at least normal levels, and arguably higher. (more…)

According to the US census, estimated monthly sales have gone up ten percent in dollars between 2010 November and 2011 November.  Have living standards gone up?  Clearly living standards are falling.  Total physical volume of goods shipped by rail has been falling over the past year, consistent with the general experience of falling living standards.  Can anyone explain what is going on?  This looks to me like slightly worse than ten percent year on year inflation, which is the inflation rate at which a significant risk of panicked flight from paper money sets in.  Am I misreading these numbers in some silly way?

There is a lot of ruin in a nation.  I have been predicting that we will probably not see hyperinflationary collapse for several years.  I find this data surprising and confusing. Either we are booming, or we are inflating, and it does not feel like we are booming.

The BLS is arguably understating inflation and unemployment. (more…)