I don’t do news of the day, for its meaning is seldom apparent until months or years after it happened, but fall of the Pokrovsk agglomeration (soon to return to is pre 2014 names of Krasnoarmeysk and Mirnograd) indicates that the Ukraine war is much closer to its end than its beginning, and tells us much about the future of warfare.
There was no house to house fighting in Krasnoarmeysk. Either there were very few Ukrainian troops, or after weeks without food, water, ammo, or medivac they were disinclined to fight. Resistance to the Russians was only drones, and drones do not suffice.
The Russians suffered about a dozen confirmed casualties taking Krasnoarmeysk. It is unlikely that total casualties were many times larger than confirmed casualties.
Mirnograd is still Ukrainian hands, or was still in Ukrainian hands a few hours before I wrote this. Presumably, Russia will suffer a couple of dozen more casualties taking Mirnograd.
And presumably Russia suffered a lot more than a few dozen casualties laying siege to the Pokrovsk agglomeration, but once it had been sieged for a little while, it fell like a ripe fruit.
In a pointless effort to delay the fall, the Ukrainian regime threw most of their Nazis into it. This leaves them with a much smaller pool of loyalists. Looks like everyone in the Ukraine except the Jews and the Nazis hates the Maidan regime.
Russia suffered a high price taking Bakhmut. It paid a high, but somewhat lower price for Avdeyevka (known as Avdiivka from 2014 to 2024 february.)
The Pokrovsk agglomeration, now the returning to its old name as the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration or Krasnoarmeysk and Mirnograd, came at a far, far lower price.
This tells us something about the future of war. The Rubicon group took Pokrovsk, drone versus drone, and drone operator versus drone operator, with grunts on the ground coming in with very little drama to secure the ground after the battle in the air was won.
It is said that only grunts can hold ground. This true, but hard for them to hold ground once air power shuts down movement.
Sieges are now coming back. In future war, each small group of grunts is going need a big stash of supplies, because of the likelihood of siege.
Thank you for the essay.
Yes, siege warfare has always been an effective strategy. Even with the increasing reliance on technology. When one sees their follow soldier killed in horrifying ways, one is demoralized.
This tactic is most useful and in the end, can save lives. It is always beneficial to seek a reasonable compromise, but when none is available, war should be terrible.
It’s all attrition. If the ukrainians had the manpower, they could have made the Russians bleed now as they did then, but there is no one left to fight. The newest weapons and tactics are good and all, but entirely meaningless without someone on the ground. Drones change the tactics, but the strategy is ancient.
And right on cue, NYC debuts as the Worldwide Infinigger White Genocide HQ. Just like that.
Ukraine? Never heard of him.