Category: war

About eight months ago I said that the Ukraine was starting to crumble, and the war would likely end in summer. Well, summer is over, and the Ukraine still stands, but is now crumbling a whole lot faster. Hat tip Defense Politics Asia: Russia is still fighting a war of attrition, and will probably continue to do so, for whenever they try war of manoeuvre, get hammered. But war of …

For a very long time I have been predicting war internal and/or external, and/or democide internal for around 2025. Twelve years ago I updated this prediction to sometime around 2026. As yet I see no reason to further modify that prediction, though I have a track record for making predictions on Musk time.  We are now a whole lot closer to war external, the imminent fall of Ukraine is likely …

Five months ago I said “Ukraine begins to crumble” and said it has about six months or so of men and material left, but cautiously qualified that incautious prediction by adding that I am endlessly surprised by the Ukraine’s ability to scrape up more men and material. Well, it is now crumbling considerably faster, but does not look like it is going to fall in a month. Russia has been …

Wars happen because some people expect one outcome, and others expect a different outcome. So prediction is hard, for if it was easy, the war would likely have been avoided, though as the war goes on, and on, and on, becomes easier. Due to fog of war, hard to know what is happening now, or has happened recently, But after a while, it becomes obvious what did happen, which gives …

The Ukraine is not a nation and has never been a nation. It has always been a province of empire, with its boundaries arbitrarily redrawn from time according to administrative convenience. It has always been ruled, then as now, by satraps of empire who regard themselves as imperials, and the locals as mere expendable provincials. Imperial policy is to use up every last Ukrainian against Russia. They are starting to …

An enormous number of men died, an enormous number of tanks and fighting vehicles were expended in the battle for Avdeevka. Advdeeka was the key strong hold in the line of strong places the Ukrainians have spent ten years building in the Donbass. And the key to the battle of Avdeevka was the Terrikon, an artificial mountain fortress with a flat top covered by maze of bunkers, and the top …

The Ukraine never has been a nation. It has always merely been a province of empire. Ukrainians oft got conscripted to fight in the wars of far away empires, but even when the empire ruled through local satraps, as it does now, the local minions of empire failed to act as if the Ukraine was a nation. Here are Ukrainians celebrating independence day. Notice the near total absence of anyone …

Russia has activated its fresh Northern Front forces, who now find themselves fighting the tattered remnants of Ukrainian forces who had earlier been chewed up on the Eastern front, and sent to guard the Northern front to give them a break. These fresh forces do not have fresh leadership. They are led by battle hardened veterans who have been through hell and back. In modern warfare, you cannot follow Kagan’s …