Basel III, BRICSpay, Gold, and Bitcoin in International trade.

As the a result of various abusive misuses by US government of the international role of the US$ fiat nations are separating themselves, and are casting around for other ways to do business with each other.

First the Brics, and now Europe has put in place with new Basel have put in place banking regulations that encourage banks to hold physical gold as an international monetary asset. Brics has abandoned plans for a blockchain based medium of exchange, and all governments everywhere are averse to the use of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange.

Gold is already the de facto international currency again.

Which of course was a huge win for Goldbugs, and a huge loss for Bitcoin Maxis like myself. Nontheless I am still a maxi, but making even bigger returns from Bitcoin has certainly been greatly delayed, and we see the Bitcoin lettuce hands capitulating. Those who capitulated early are undoubtedly congratulating themselves. Albeit blockchain analysis indicates that most of the time most lettuce hands capitulate at the worst possible times, because the bottom of the dip happens when the most capitulation is happening.

Gold has intrinsic value, for its beauty and industrial use, but its price is primarily monetary.

Silver has intrinsic value, for its beauty and industrial use, but its price is primarily industrial, and recent changes in the price have been dictated by their advances in battery technology. If you are betting on silver, you are betting against people with inside information.

> The one strategy that almost always loses is chasing the short-term movements. (Unless, of course, you have and act on insider information, or insider access to front-run the trades, both of which are de jure illegal and de facto permitted only for favored friends of the political elite.)

A substantial rise in the value of gold due to banks using it for international transactions is entirely possible, but there is a limit on how much its value can rise, and since Gold is already the currency of bank international transactions we are likely at that limit.. It is price will of course continue rising because of the increasingly rapid decline in the value of fiat. The limit on that for Bitcoin is of course very far off.

Secondly, gold cannot be used for ordinary private transactions, because gold is not infinitely divisible.

Banking arrangements for international transactions continue to suck, resulting in increasing private use of Bitcoin for international transactions for international transactions made between entities where both of them lack the political power to get the banks to do what they want.

When people think of Gold becoming ordinary currency again, they are thinking countries going to a gold standard with a hundred percent Gold backing.

If we assume that seventy percent of all currencies world wide go to physical backing by gold, and they are all sixteen percent marginal reserve, then around US$15000-$25000 per ounce.

The are not even going back to a Gold backed standard with marginal reserve. Would not be accepted even if they did, because everyone would expect governments to steal the backing again by breaking the peg again.