The election for New York’s 23rd Congressional District was a straight up and down test of Tea Party conservatism and Palin Republicanism against “moderate” Republicanism.
It proved, decisively, that Palin Republicanism wins votes and that “moderate” Republicanism loses votes.
It proved, decisively, that “moderate” Republicans wish the party harm.
Dede Scozzafava
The Republican party machine (the NRCC and the RNC) gave near a million dollars to a candidate who in the end endorsed the Democratic party candidate, thus exposing “moderate” Republicanism as treason against the party. A purge will ensue, or else a third party run. Possibly both, an incomplete and ineffectual purge, leading to a third party run. The swift unification of the party around Hoffman suggests an effectual purge may be happening.
Those who supported Scozzafava are revealed as dupes or traitors. If the purge fails to remove from power everyone who supported giving a million dollars to the candidate who endorsed the Democrat, a third party run is likely. If those who run the party are not loyal to it, who will be?
Palin Republicanism may not necessarily be able to save the Republican party, but it certainly has lot better chance than “moderate” Republicanism. It might be able to postpone the apocalypse for a decade or so, though eventually elections will be fought between the likes of the Institutional Revolutionary Party and the Party of the Democratic Revolution.
Democracy has an inherent drift towards self destruction. The masses are seduced by demagogues who promise them they can vote themselves rich, leading to bankruptcy and social war. But when the drift gets out of hand, when the end approaches too rapidly, there is a reaction as final collapse comes in sight, leading to a retreat from the abyss. The 1948 Congress that rejected Truman’s Fair Deal and proceeded to disband war socialism, and the Reagan revolution were such reactions to the alarmingly rapid approach of self destruction, and Palin may well be the next one – probably the last one.
Since 1994 I have been predicting collapse around 2020—2025 or so. If Palin succeeds, my prediction will need to be substantially rescheduled. I hope for the best, but expect the worst.