About eight months ago I said that the Ukraine was starting to crumble, and the war would likely end in summer.
Well, summer is over, and the Ukraine still stands, but is now crumbling a whole lot faster. Hat tip Defense Politics Asia:
Russia is still fighting a war of attrition, and will probably continue to do so, for whenever they try war of manoeuvre, get hammered. But war of attrition is spontaneously turning into of war of manoeuvre.
The Russians attack over a broad front. On some parts of the front they successfully advance. On some parts the Ukrainians hold their ground. Where Ukrainians hold their ground, they are apt to find themselves cut off, because to their right and their left, Russians have advanced. Conversely, advancing Russians can get cut off. Often both happen simultaneously, which commentators like Defense Politics Asia tend to interpret from their armchairs has clever planning by Russians and clever counter planning by the Ukrainians, but looks to me more like fog of war and chaos of war, ignorant armies clashing in darkness. So far, war of maneuver looks less like a plan than just what happens.
Because the Ukrainians are collapsing in a disorderly way, the Russians are apt to advance in a disorderly way, which leads to high Russian casualties — though obviously vastly higher Ukrainian casualties. Overall, Russian casualties have much diminished due to the massive decline in Ukrainian capability, but advancing remains a dangerous business.
Now it used to be that no one ever got cut off, because days would go by in gaining a single ditch, a single tree, and a single building. Everyone knew exactly where the enemy was. Now Ukrainian brigades just keep vanishing. They are sent to defend some spot, and never heard from again, and no knows what happened. All dead? Some dead some captured? Discovered they could not get to where they were being sent under penalty of death if they did not go, and all ran away instead?
Because of the chaos of war, Ukrainian casualties and disappeared are rapidly and massively increasing. Thus, for example, the Ukrainians did not successfully retreat from Ugledar, a fortress city that was key fortress holding the front line, equal in importance to the fortress city and officially unofficial Nato base Avdeevka. That they have lost both strong points anchoring their front line is a problem. That they have lost the men holding the Vugledar section of the front line is a considerably bigger problem.
We are hearing contradictory information that the Ukrainians are abandoning their Kursk adventure, and that they hastily rounding up new forces to hurl into Kursk. I suspect that both things are true simultaneously.
Attrition has greatly diminished the Ukrainian capability to fight, and thus attrition is now happening a whole lot faster.
This is likely to end in an Afghan style debacle. Lots of people are talking peace plans, but our rulers are too many and too incohesive. The Russians have no one to negotiate with. Trump promises to end the war in a day, but the Ukraine will probably have collapsed before his inauguration, and if it is still around, he might well find himself in an Emperor Hirohito situation.
Emperor Hirohito claimed that as emperor he had inherent right to make peace without the consensus of Cabinet, which he indisputably did. Some of the government disagreed. Strongly. Lots of bullet holes in the imperial palace ensued, and he had kill quite a few high ranking Japanese before his inherent right to act in matters of war and peace without cabinet consensus was accepted.
But obviously he inherently had that right. That is the fundamental reason for having a sovereign. If you don’t have a sovereign, or your sovereign is unable to make peace and enforce that deal on his own people, then you will have war, and likely an ill chosen war, or a war that was never consciously, intentionally, and rationally chosen. And if you go into an ill chosen war, and you are unable to make peace, very bad things will ensue.
World War I was such a war. Serbia was making both war and peace on Austria. Austria demanded that Serbia remake itself into a state capable of choosing between war and peace. It refused, objecting that this was a gross violation of its sovereignty, which surely would have been if they had had a real sovereign. Limited war ensued, or was about to ensue. The German army, without the consent of the Kaiser, invaded France through neutral Belgium. Total war, the first world war, the greatest war in History, ensued. Serbia started the war though lack of cohesion, and Germany vastly expanded the war through lack of cohesion.
World war two, on the other hand, was a war of choice. Hitler rationally and reasonably wanted German reunification, and thought he could get it. The allies rationally did not want German reunification, and thought they could stop him. So they went at it. Which in retrospect looks like a terrible mistake by both sides. A war is always a terrible mistake by at least one side. And because the Global American Empire has approximately a Dunbar number of despots ruling it, and these despots know neither the enemy nor themselves, the Global American Empire is apt to make terrible mistakes.
What shocks me is Ukraine is capable of scrounging up men who get no pussy, no wife, no kids and just through the threat of death or punishment get them to fight.
Even on the ruskie side there are men who get no pussy that are willing to fight. What exactly is it that convinces these men to go forward into slaughter? I cannot understand going into a situation where you can die without leaving anything in this world to carry on for you. Last I heard from Pax Imperialis, he was talking about a death drive that could be the case for this, but I don’t think it is that simple.
Suprisingly, it is a worse situation to be married and then go into war, because modern states don’t let you go with your wife, she is left alone at home to uhhh ‘find herself’ and get a CVS receipt at 3 AM.
It’s called patriotism. There are no patriots in the West, so it’s hard to understand it. But Russia has been invaded continually over the centuries, and its survival depends on patriots. Starting with Napoleon, this is the fifth time in 200 years that western countries have invaded Russia. Russia will, as usual, win this war, but there will always be the possibility that US/NATO will start another.
In the last 400 years Russia has been invaded an average 1 out of every 35 years or so. The need for patriotic warriors never exits living memory. Prior to that 400 year period the Russians lived under the Tatar yoke. It inculcated the Russian elite with a duty to subjugate the less civilized peoples to their south and east as the Moslem Tatars don’t have it so bad under Christian Russians, but Christian Russians have it horrible under Moslem Tatars.
Many of the Ukrainian men who figured they’re pretty much dead anyways, with no hope for the future, have already met their fate on the battlefield. Now we’re seeing Ukrainians with survival instinct being pressed into the front lines at gunpoint… and as soon as they’re capable, disappearing in massive routs when the guns are no longer pointed at them. Sadly for many, they’ll get liquidated by Russian artillery. Many reports coming out of mass disappearances.
On the Russian side, they’re seeing increasingly good odds at coming back alive and victory is foreseeable. The pay is also very good. For men who struggle to get pussy, returning from a war victorious and a good chunk of cash is a strategy. Much of the patriotism isn’t driven by Russia, but widespread realization that the West wants them dead. Impossible to get pussy if dead.
https://archive.ph/7Njpw
Ukrainian commander allegedly commits suicide after his troops’ survival instincts kick in.
The most important part of the story was at the bottom of the article.
A Lt-Col in charge of a battalion of 100 men… pretty sure that should’ve been the headline news.
It might’ve been suicide. Defending with a “battalion” that shattered is practically impossible in those conditions. They’d just die including himself. Surrendering to the Russians might get SBU interviewing his family. Likewise, retreating might just be viewed as treason. He might have seen suicide as the only way out.
Under the conditions, it was extremely difficult to survive even getting to Vuhledar.
There are men who enjoy fighting. Like the Saiyan’s of Dragon Ball lore, and Conan the Barbarian, the fight alone is worth it. What others consider Hell they consider Heaven. They tend to be very high testosterone, chisel jawed masculine men who exist for conflict.
Patriotism. And very important part of any patriotism is a firm belief that you will eventually get nice wife and cute kids when returning home, after victory over orks… or someone.
I know, I know, there are no patriotism of any kind in the West (even in my country, any patriotism is in free fall) su it is hard to understand, but that’s how it works.
Lili Marleen, anyone?
Yes, it is unbelievable that those “strange folks with strange names” figure-headed by that little jewish clochard and backed up by disgusting creatures such as that Nuland-witch actually did manage to convince quite a few of the Ukro-kids to actually believe all that, but they did manage it. So now you have a slaughter.
And by the way, regarding all that stories about supposed unfeasibility of the war of maneuver… Our host is also supporter of those. My thought is that war of maneuver is possible even today, despite all those drones and satellites – but with LARGE losses. Like, say… in WW2, when Soviets, even when winning, had routinely suffered few hundred thousands dead. Just check the data about Staljingrad, Kursk…
Such such losses are unacceptable today, not even when winning, and Mr. Putin personally probably does not even want to inflict such losses to his own youth. And that’s how it all ended with war of attrition.
What would manuver target? The center of gravity for Ukraine is NATO- Ukranian war production and independent command is minimal.
We are seeing tactical maneuver happen, though this looks to me more like chaos than brilliant planning. When one side is retreating, and the other advancing, because war of attrition reaches the end game, maneuver just happens. Strategic maneuver would be pointless for the reasons you list.
Maneuver would target… not much. Grunts. It would send home, in black bags, some 500 thousands Uke soldiers, and 400 thousands supposedly victorious Russkies on the banks of Dnjepar.
Rinse, repeat few more times until Polish border.
That is exactly why it did not happen, and will not happen.
Besides, eventually reaching Polish and Romanian border might actually be impressive enough that propaganda Used in Uke, about terrifying orks, would work in Poland and Romania.
With slow grinding, it will not work. I hope…
Anecdotes from the front indicate that most of the Ukrainian army is gone. The rest will be gone soon enough.
If no German style armistice (and Putin has no one to negotiate with) attrition will get Russians to the Polish border soon enough.
Yes, but if they get to the Polish border, it will be after two and a half years, without thunder from tanks of a couple of Fronts. So, much less likely to cause enough upset among Poles and Romanians, upset that would suddenly make their youth believers in Lili Marleen.
Beside, I’d be very surprised to ever see Russian tanks on the Polish border. Or in Kiev, for that matter. While currently Mr. Putin really does not have anyone to negotiate with, it is not a problem that could not be solved in a quick civil war in 404 which will probably erupt before surrendering to Russians.
The point of war of attrition is not to take territory, but to eliminate the enemy. The Ukrainian army is not going to last two and half years. Once the Ukrainian army is no more, Russia will occupy all of Ukraine, and install in Rump Ukraine a government more to their liking.
In modern warfare, advancing is difficult and dangerous, and the Russians are doing as little of it as possible. Just that they are sometimes forced to advance in order to find Ukrainian soldiers to kill.
The map is a distraction. What matters is that the forces that were defending the Ugledar axis are no more. If the Ukraine was fighting to win the war, they would retreat all the way to the next place comparably strong. Ugledar was strong because it had a lot of tall concrete buildings in the middle of big expanse of flatness, so Ukrainian troops behind thick concrete were shooting at troops who were not behind thick concrete. Most of those buildings are still standing, though heavily battered.. It fell because the men defending it are gone. The Ukraine has plenty more cities like Ugledar. What it does not have is men to defend all those cities. If it did have them would still be feeding them into Ugledar.
Surrender is improbable, because the real Ukrainian government is in Washington. Once the Ukrainian army ceases to exist, surrender is irrelevant. Russian military strategy is predicated on winning the war without a Ukrainian surrender, not on inducing a surrender.
If all of the remaining Ukrainian forces in Ukraine surrender, it does not really matter what the ones in Washington say anymore – no one left in Ukraine to carry out their orders.
Russia taking Kiev will probably mean that if they advance further westwards after that, any hostile military formations they encounter will be NATO, not Ukrainian.
Both sides are just keeping high or even medium status people out of it. The Ukrainians by forcing low status men into the army physically, and the Russians by paying low status men to join the army. The Russians have more people and more money, so they can afford to be less coercive. On the other hand, they probably have less ability to be coercive, as Putin does to a great extent respond to Russian opinion, it isn’t an outright occupation government backed by foreigners like that of Ukraine.
There is also the period of 18 months or so in which normies (not completely without reason) believed Ukraine was winning, a period in which joining the Ukrainian army looked like a good opportunity to win an easy victory and be a hero for the rest of your life, and those men were never allowed to resign.
Russians aren’t keeping officers out of it. Maybe grunts were low status before enlisting, but officers?
Plenty of high status Russian officers dying on the front lines, plus Russia is promoting from the front lines. It is just not true that Russia is sending low status men to die for high status men. Nine generals have been killed. That is a whole lot of generals.
High status men are going to the front lines, and men on the front lines are gaining status. This is the huge difference between Russia and Nato, different as night and day.
“Plenty of high status Russian officers dying on the front lines”
Granted.
But they could be higher status.
In Russia, in order to go to postgraduate officer training, one has to have front line service. Thus the highest status in the military is reserved for those who have stuck their necks out.
And then one goes right back to the front line. Russia has plenty of generals who got killed.
Stalin, who had no hesitation in going where the action was, wound up ruling Russia. It is a Russian tradition. High status men fight, and men who fight become high status.
Russia is not an aristocratic state, because the communists were allergic to aristocracy, and Putin, a 1990s leftist, is also allergic to aristocracy, and has taken measures within the military to prevent aristocracy. But it has a distinct tendency in that direction, and the military feels there should be considerably more of that tendency.
Because Russia lacks natural borders, it always has had, and always will have, a tendency towards aristocracy. Sending grunts to die is a luxury that is easier for an airsea power. And modern warfare is becoming aristocratic warfare. In aristocratic warfare, aristocracies are born. Hurling hordes of grunts at the enemy from a safe distance is going badly for Nato and the Ukraine.
During the Chechen war, Russia tended to throw grunts at the enemy from a safe distance, and there is now a consensus in Russia and in the Russian military that was a really bad idea and they should not do that. And if it was a bad idea then, it is a worse idea now.
You’re right that the military requires frontline service, i.e. officers lead their men, and the men could die but are meant to win, rather than meant to die but could win, as in the Ukrainian army.
However, a Russian army office will not step into a St Petersburg party and be automatically high status. The fraction of Russians that go into the army is a particular fraction.
Putin is trying to balance his natural bias for Western liberalism with – because, and I mean it as a compliment not an insult, he is a very intelligent man – the necessities of survival.
If he sees “the necessities of survival” as a divine command – as an implicit good – then he cannot yet overrule all those in his government who do not.
This certainly was true before the present war. If it is true now, I would be surprised. How do you know this is true now?
Hordes of grunts from rural areas are coming home with cash enough to buy a farm (land is cheap in rural Russia). That, plus killing people, is going to make a grunt high status in rural Russia.
Hordes of freshly minted officers are rapidly ascending in the military, due to growth in the military, and the military demanding that officers stick their necks out if they hope for promotion. If an officer steps into a Saint Petersburg party, he has probably personally killed people, has a good salary, and prospects of a better one. Hard to believe he is not high status. Right now the war is the major vector for upwards social mobility in Russia. Being a commander of men who have themselves risen in status is going to make one high status. Russians are not looking down on returning grunts from above the way Americans looked down on Vietnam vets from above, so they are going to be looking upwards at the officers of those grunts from below.
My best understanding from reading a variety of sources – which of course may be wrong – is that they are genuinely paying their guys, but the war is nonetheless not ‘fashionable’. Men from ordinary areas, which is of course most people, can enlist and return with enough money to outbid the local men who stayed behind. A real status boost. But an officer’s social status is not boosted relative to, or up to, that of an artist, businessman, professor, etc. (of course the Siloviki are their own power-fief within Russia and have their own status rankings).
Reading a variety of sources, the war is hugely fashionable. The average Russian in the street looks west and sees the German wehrmacht of 1941. Everyone suddenly wants to be as Russian as possible, instead of as Western as possible. Authentic Russian bread and all that. If the war is unfashionable, why is authentic Russianess suddenly fashionable?
The army was clearly against its CiC last time around so Trump will have to clean house, there and basically everywhere. Obama replaced a lot of guys, just musing out loud here. Most of the resistance was passive-aggressive, like Disappointing Mattis, but a guy like Vindman presumably deserves the silken rope rather than a pension.
Perhaps he can heroically charge a Russian gun emplacement sometime in February? Or else lost at sea in a tragic collision between ships commanded by strong independent historic women.
Not sure if you’re tracking, but Eugene Vindman (brother of Alexander Vindman) is running for congress.
Nice article on that pager business: https://markbisone.substack.com/p/the-chain-gangsters
(The first part is head scratching but just keep scrolling.)
It would be nice if some people got arrested and punished for running EU shell companies manufacturing devices used in terrorist activities. Or, more likely, it could all just dwindle into a Nordstream investigation of shrugs and foot shuffling.
>”Even on the ruskie side there are men who get no pussy that are willing to fight.”
The number of volutneers on the Russian side has been stable for a while now at 1K+ a day signing up, 30K+ a month.
Aside from the volunteers drive by patriotism, there are also volunteers driven by serious incentives, which can and do lead to pussy. Russia also has its rust belts and local “Appalachias”.
A volunteer to the front gets more than ten times the median wage of 70% of Russia’s regions, so a year as a volunteer brings in the equivalent of a decade of civilian work. Plus additional govt social perks.
The returning Russian volunteer is a high-status male (the status is enforced by state and society), and simply drowning in dough by local standards. If he doesn’t blow it all on blackjack and hookers, he can get a roastie and retire early instead.
Or get a young wifu and invest in something.
Heartland school graduation dances:
1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzFvLrO6BIQ
2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1uggehtQF4
3) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niFi7VwIrKk
The school uniform in the “french maid waifu” style is indeed something to behold.
“And because the Global American Empire has approximately a Dunbar number of despots ruling it, and these despots know neither the enemy nor themselves…”
I can understand why they wouldn’t know their enemy, because to “know” their enemy would require exposure to thoughtcrime, which is a thoughtcrime itself. It is forbidden to ask what is forbidden. To even approach understanding why the Russians are fighting back so hard would require comprehending their own side’s insanity and evil towards them.
But why not know each other? What are the limits or restrictions to that?
Isn’t this what Davos and WEF and all that are for? Did offing Epstein burn down one of their speakeasy networking safe houses? Was Epstein’s Epsteining in that jail cell a microcosm of a greater pattern going on out here, where the effort and risk required to keep the band together is just too much to expect?
Like if all I had to do was serve as the secretary of my fraternity reunion committee or something, that’s one thing, but if today I have to really stick my neck out and arrange blatantly illegal jailbait parties like Epstein and Puffy did, and some of my guests can’t keep a damn secret anymore, then maybe the glue logic just isn’t holding?
Maybe being a “connector” person at that level today requires “knowing too much”? If that’s so, then why wasn’t it that way in 1970? Because back then, maybe there was a “WASP Center” at the top who had all gone to Yale and understood and trusted each other in a way that’s just no longer possible in a cacophonous and factionalized Jewish/Indian/Chinese/Karen/Negro/Homo Rainbow Dystopia?
Or maybe I’m bloviating again, and it’s just that once you’re too far past Dunbar’s number, that’s it, there just isn’t one “us” anymore.
They don’t want to believe that they evil and malicious, and are part of a system doing evil and malicious things. So they don’t believe the system is doing evil and malicious things.
Example: The conflict with Russia was predicated on them believing their own economic statistics. Bidenomics is working great 🙃
Example: The actors in the “men for Kamala” commercial were all gay, two of them were gay porn actors, and all massively triggered the viewer’s gaydar.
Example: The character of She Hulk is an obvious self insert, and character inserted has a total lack of self awareness.
Example: Toxic positivity. That they require everyone to believe obvious lies about what they are doing implies that they believe obvious lies about what they are doing, for the apparatus of thought control is applied most strongly to themselves, and the punishments are most brutal and most effective for themselves.
Example: Transparency ratings. They believe that stuff, just as they believed their own economic statistics. Because bribes to judges and high civil servants are laundered through bagmen, they are not being bribed.
Example: The German green economic program.
Obviously. But though we know that, they do not know that.
My oh my, what a small world it is sometimes.
https://x.com/joma_gc/status/1844793372692848872
The people at the top must be exposed to thoughtcrime, because they are the ones that define what a thoughtcrime is: any idea or ideology that goes against their knowingly anti-human interests.
False ideologies require a liar or liars at the top- certainly the “great deceiver”, and probably his top deputies on Earth, so to speak.
I am reminded of the Babylon Bee videoing a conference between Satan and his Democratic party servants. Satan could think crime thoughts and accurately perceive reality, and thus accurately perceive the likely consequences of the Democrats actions, but no one else at the conference could.
Pretty sure that that fake news is much truer than any actual news.
I don’t care about Russia or Ukraine, I just want the scumbags currently running the USA to stop laundering money through someone else’s war.
The people running the USA do care about Ukraine and Russia, which is perhaps the biggest issue. Why are these people operating apparently from a frame whereby they are not actually citizens of the country they rule? While they definitely do launder money, this is just a perk.
What Trump wants to do is get something he can spin as a victory, while rolling back Nato from the Russian border. Russia has an obviously legitimate gripe about Nato nuclear capable weapon systems on its border, and there is going to be trouble until that gripe is addressed.
Everyone wants something they can spin as a victory, but the mainstream position is anything that can keep the pressure on Russia. Trump has the will to remove that pressure, but hard to spin that as a victory.
Break the frame: a victory is that your neighborhood is safe, not a country you’ve never visited.
Why is this “uncategorized” instead of “war”?
Thanks for noting my error.
Highly esteemed Canuckold bodybuilder Chris Bumstead wins his sixth Mr. Olympia Classic title, delivers pussy-grovelling retirement speech:
This in reference to a woman who didn’t even take his last name.
Chris Bumstead, clad in a pink jumpsuit, gestures furtively and whispers:
“A husband cannot celebrate glorious victory without emasculating himself before his wife.”
“Yeah I don’t that that’s true, Cbum”
“…I have the worst f*cking male role models”