Venezuala is yet another step towards World War III.
Venezuela implemented a bunch of utterly catastrophic and self destructive economic policies. Among these was the rational sounding policy of capturing Venezuela’s vast oil wealth which was going abroad, and applying it to the purposes of Venezuelan government.
This resulted in the US issuing a bunch of economic sanctions, similar to those applied to Russia, but vastly less extreme. The damage done by those sanctions was probably insignificant compared to the damage Venezuela did to itself.
The US government then attempted to color revolution Venezuela, but this failed dismally, because Venezuela was run by leftists who were veterans of color revolution, and knew their opponents playbook — had in fact been taught the playbook by their opponents Ngos.
The Venezuelan politicals took over management of the oil industry in Venezuela, which predictably collapsed. Like the rest of the private economy in Venezuela.
Venezuela then reached out to Russian oil companies, who set about restoring oil production. This was a somewhat Thermidorian policy, since the Russian oil companies understandably insisted on making a profit and refused to have the politicals interfering in management.
This, of course, was violation of the Monroe doctrine, which really pissed off America. Hence war threats from the Trump administration. Their idea of Thermidor was that Venezuela should let US oil companies do what the Russian oil companies are now doing.
Well, said Russia, if you can stick your oar into our boat, we are going to stick our oar into your boat. So Russia sent military advisers and military equipment to Venezuela, and its warships visited Venezuelan waters. Which is a really big violation of the Monroe doctrine, which pissed off America even more.
This is a substantial and significant step towards World War III
The obvious solution is to the US to concede to the Russian 2022 ultimatum.
“Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization” – addressed to NATO.
A separate bilateral proposal to the United States on “Security Guarantees.”
America’s rejection of this ultimatum led to disastrous Ukraine war, and is now threatening to lead to a similarly disastrous Venezuelan war.
The substance of the ultimatum is “How about us nuclear power agree to stop this stuff” Seems like a good idea. At the time in was only the US doing this stuff, so the proposed treaty seemed one sided, a US capitulation, but Russia is now demonstrating that two can play at this game, a game likely lead to nuclear war.
I predict that Trump will bluster, but then blink. But blinking looks weak, is weak, and when Kiev collapses, going to look even weaker. Better to cut something like the 2022 deal.