Midterm Republican landslide likely.

In preparation for the US midterm elections, globohomo has been seizing nations allied with Trump around the world, sometimes with plausible and reasonable democratic legitimacy, as in Serbia, sometimes in a blatant outrageous in-your-face steal, as in Brazil. Usually it is something of both, a “democratic” election with the outsider’s thumb firmly applied to the scales, as in Europe, an election that is distinctly smelly, but does not stink to high heaven like Brazil, followed by an autogolpe, as the new elected government proceeds to criminalize everyone to their right.

And I have been feeling completely unmotivated about voting. The time of Republics is over, because elections are not making a difference, as for example in Japan, and because the government elects the people, as for example in England, instead of the people electing the government. All over Europe, people vote for closed borders, and yet somehow strangely still get open borders, until the government has imported enough Muslims screaming for infidel blood, white pussy, and welfare far more generous than that received by pensioners who paid into social security all their lives, far more generous than that received by a veteran injured in war, enough Muslims and Hindus to ensure that elections yield the right result, without too much potentially embarrassing ballot box stuffing. Pay off the Muslims with the money and assets of the legacy population, and Hindus with their jobs. Welfare is getting a little expensive? — OK, proceed with quiet asset confiscation. Those boomers and billionaires have it coming, don’t they? The government imports a pile of foreigners, and then gives them your stuff in order to get their votes.

To win the midterms, you have to turn out your base. The Democrats are relying on their tried and true formula for turning out their base: Envy, hatred, and malice. Vote Democrat, and you will get vengeance on all those chuds. Vote Democrat, and the right loses their stuff. Vote Democrat, and the right is going to jail. This is firing up the Democrat base.

Trump 2.0 began with a bunch of thunderbolts, among them the coup against USAID, which immensely motivated his base. The president was striking down the presidency! It was great. I was happy and excited. But then it petered out.

Now, what do we see? We see Democrats who committed outrageously criminal acts, and who promise their base that they will commit a whole lot more of them, walking around free as birds, rather than in jail.

The thousands of victims of weaponized judicial activism have not been compensated, nor the perpetrators punished, and the perpetrators are running on a platform of doing it ten times harder this time around.

This is distinctly unmotivating. The Republican base is sad, depressed, and just plain frightened.

But suddenly, light dawns. Trump and Vance know what time it is!

President Nawrocki was blissfully flying off to Senegal, seemingly unaware that an autogolpe had been organized for when he was away.

But that Trump and Vance cancelled their campaign appearances a few hours before he took off indicates that they knew before he took off.

That Nawrocki was able to land his plane back in Poland despite resistance from the airport, and that the police Tusk sent to purge the court rolled over and played dead indicates someone stuck a crowbar into the autogolpe.

Who?

Timeline of events, UTC time.
2026-10-29 21:00 — Trump and Vance cancellation announcements begin to appear.
2026-10-30 14:04 — Nawrocki takes off for Dakar (~15–17 hours after the U.S. cancellations). Trump and Vance rallies are re-instated within minutes of his plane taking off.

Which could be interpreted as mere coincidence, but I would interpret it as everything being in place, and all orders given — that the rallies were re-instated the moment that Trump and Vance knew that the coup was still rolling, the moment that they knew that the Trump/Vance countermeasures had not been detected and had not triggered a change in plan by the coupists, which would have necessitated further changes in plan by Trump and company.

If Trump and Vance knew of the coup in advance, why did Nawrocki still take off? Well, if the coupists knew the Americans knew, they would adjust their own coup accordingly. Better to catch the coup after it was launched than to face a different coup at a different and unknown time, carried out in a different and unpredictable manner. In a coup, surprise is nine tenths of victory. If Nawrocki cancelled his flight, if too many of those likely to oppose the coup had advance warning, this would tip off the coupists. You only tip off the people you absolutely need to counter the coup, lest the coupists realize they have lost the element of surprise, so that you retain the element of surprise, and the coupists are surprised to find that they have lost it.

So, if Trump and Vance had preparations for the coup in Poland, they have preparations for the coup in the US.

Which does not incline me to believe that voting matters much, but does incline me to believe that regardless of who votes and how they vote, the outcome is going to turn out OK. Most likely outcome: Democrats get a historically high real turnout, Republicans a historically low real turnout, but the Democrats are shocked to find that the votes of the dead and the illegals get surprise disallowed, resulting in a historic defeat for Democrats and a surprise victory for Republicans. Also possible, the Republicans “lose” the midterms, but are mysteriously still able to exercise power. The Democrat majority issues bits of paper that purport to legalize illegal acts by the permanent government against the merely elected government, as during Trump 1.0, that authorize the presidency to strike down the president, but the permanent government gets its legs cut off at the knees, after the style of the first months of Trump 2.0.

We have been around this road a few times, Kirk has been murdered, and Trump has nearly been murdered twice. This sort of thing is apt to cause the target to pay attention. In the lead up to the midterms, Trump has been acting strangely oblivious, but if he is oblivious, that would be strange indeed. There are a lot of people, Musk among them, who know that if the Democrats win, and are able to exercise effective power, they will die. Musk has proudly promised he will not flee America — not a promise I would make were I in his shoes unless I had some prospect that I could make my enemies flee or die.

A lot of people have called Trump stupid. Maybe he is, though strangely most of those who called him stupid wound up losing their shirts to him. If you think Trump is stupid, where is your flying palace with the gold plated toilets and your hot wife?

But no one calls Musk stupid. And it is Musk who swore he was going to remain in America, in the face of threats that imply that only one side may continue to exist in America, that left and right cannot continue to both exist in the same America. In the context of these threats, Musk saying he will remain in America implies that some other people might not. When highly intelligent people make threats, they do so in the most delicate, polite, and indirect manner.

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