Bryan Caplan’s challenge

Bryan Caplan wants people to go on record predicting the future of Egypt before the future becomes apparent, as compared to our usual procedure of claiming one knew all along afterward.

As I said before, democracy with universal franchise does not work.  It works worse with Muslims.  No Muslim should be allowed to vote anywhere, especially in countries with substantial numbers of Muslims.

Egypt might get another dictator like Mubarak, but if it gets democracy, will suffer war and economic disaster, both of which will be blamed on Jews.  Egyptian democracy will at best resemble Indonesian democracy: economic decay, quiet tolerance of terrorism against the west, with some arrests of those who terrorize westerners, but reluctant foot dragging in arresting them and slap on the wrist sentences in the unlikely event they get arrested, semi open tolerance of terrorism and mass violence against local infidels.  At worst they will elect a government that thinks that everyone who voted against them are apostates who need their heads cut off, and that most of those who voted for them are also apostates who need their heads cut off, but most likely will elect something in between, somewhat resembling Hamas.  Egypt will not officially abandon the peace agreement with Israel, but will abandon it in reality.

2 Responses to “Bryan Caplan’s challenge”

  1. […] wanted people to go on record predicting the future of Egypt before the future becomes apparent.  My prediction has come […]

  2. Bruce Charlton says:

    I found that an annoying and meaningless blog posting from Caplan – smug and empty.

    The fact is people make strong – even hysterical – ‘predictions’ all the time, in the mainstream media.

    The problem is that it is the consequences, not the predictions.

    If you are PC, then your mistakes are buried with each new round of the news. Nobody calls you on them, the conversation has moved on. Only boring pedants refer to that old stuff…

    But if you are not PC, sometimes (like the way scapegoats are pulled out of a crowd and randomly beaten) the PC media will make up something that is ridiculous and that you didn’t say and stick it in quotes – and you will be mocked and vilified for it in the mainstream media regularly and forever.

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