The Great Debasement Trade

The state cannot tax beyond the Laffer Limit forever, and it cannot run enormous deficits forever.

We have more urgent fish to fry than the deficit — nothing is going to be fixed until the deep state is behind bars and there are tanks in Harvard, and I suppose our enemies feel even less urgency about the deficit, more important to them to kill all “fascists”. Indeed right now they are confronting Trump on the principle that we should be printing even more money and giving it to illegals.

If we don’t get the deep state behind bars and tanks in Harvard fairly soon, country is going broke. And thus, the Great Debasement Trade. Markets are starting to bet on the US$ going away.

In the past 365 days, gold and bitcoin has risen relative to the dollar by almost the same amount

But, there can only be one. Bitcoin is the one true crypto currency, but gold is gold. And now the end game is coming in sight.

Gold has the huge advantage over Bitcoin that every central bank wants to use gold because every other central bank has gold. And right now, Gold is probably a better investment. But in the long run, Gold has the huge disadvantage over Bitcoin that it is hard to move it around safely, and hard to store it safely. In the long run, Bitcoin will replace Gold and the Dollar for international settlements, which will lead to an approximately ten fold increase in the value of bitcoin.

As for right now? If you are continually moving money around in the market place, probably wisest to invest in gold — but given that you are betting on the apocalypse, if your bet pays off, paper gold is going to go up in smoke. So you probably should not bet on being able to move money around in the market place indefinitely without it being stolen. So you would need to buy physical gold and bury it somewhere. And when the apocalypse happens, probably even harder to dig it up and move it around.

So, move fiat dollars into bitcoin rather than gold, even though in the next couple of years, it is likely that gold will appreciate considerably more than bitcoin.

You will probably get more appreciation during the next year or two on your investment funds at the broker if you put them in a gold etf than a bitcoin etf — but when the proverbial hits the fan, the government will probably introduce a retroactive tax on nominal capital appreciation, which by that time will be running at a thousand percent a year, and the government will insist that even though you have invested in gold and bitcoin, you can only withdraw in dollars, and you are going to find that no one will give you eggs for dollars.

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