The global warming swindle

Anthropogenic global warming is a swindle in that the scientific method has been abandoned, the evidence is in substantial part lies, and so on and so forth.

But it is not a swindle in that it is provably false. It could be true. The evidence vastly overstated, and the effects vastly overstated, but it could be true that humans are causing the world to warm at about one fifth of a degree per decade, about two degrees per century

Of course two degrees per century is not very fast: Walk, walk, the hills! But it could be true.

But in few years, by 2012, possibly as soon as 2009, we will know whether it is true or not.

Measurements of the 18O/16O provide an accurate measure of ancient water temperature. We observe that the climate has always been changing, and from time to time has changed quite a lot. Measurement of 10Be from these same ice cores indicate that the high temperatures occurred at times of high solar activity, and the low temperatures at times of low solar activity.

So in the past, the climate varied as the sun varied. So are present day changes in climate a reflection of increasing solar activity, or increasing anthropogenic CO2?

Throughout most of the twentieth century, solar activity increased, and CO2 increased. So it was impossible to say which was causing the change in climate.

Around 2000 or so, solar activity peaked, and in the recent year, fell like a stone. So if climate change is caused by the sun, global warming should have ended around 2000, the world should have cooled a little towards 2007, and should have cooled quite a bit this year. Arguably that is just what happened. And arguably that is not what happened. The data is noisy.

In a little while, a few months, or a few years, it will become apparent that the world is continuing to warm, which case climate change is primarily anthropogenic, or that the world is cooling, in which case climate change is primarily cosmogenic.

Monthly global average temperature anomaly

Blue dots represent observed month to month global average temperatures. Observe the cooling trend in the last few months. If this goes on for a while, it will disprove the claim that human activity has substantially influenced the climate. Of course, if, on the other hand, it reverses …

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