Jim's Blog

I kind of stopped reporting on the climate change hoax years ago, because everyone based knows the truth, but after so long, deserves a recap.

Behavior reveals belief. The behavior of the climate priesthood reveals that they do not believe in catastrophic anthropogenic global warming as a scientific material fact, but treat it partly like a scam for profit and power, and partly like sincere demon worship. The falsification of empirical evidence has been documented at enormous length elsewhere, and I will not repeat it unless someone makes some empirical claims in the comments. A better indicator is the sale of carbon indulgences. Precisely none of the money paid goes to things that would actually offset carbon emission, such as fuel removal from forests. which would be highly effective in removing carbon from circulation. Mostly it goes to people flying around in private jets telling the peons to turn off their heating. If these guys believe that anthropogenic climate change was bad the way they believe that earthquakes are bad, they would be worried by fake carbon indulgences. Rather, they believe that the indulgences are real if they go to worship of the climate change demon, rather than real if they actually went to offset carbon emissions. Observe how the nuclear power and fuel reduction arguments flow off them like water off a ducks back.

Also, we are just not seeing anyone bothering with empirical and scientific claims very much any more. They are now increasingly comfortable with the mask and robes of empirical science and empirical this-worldly fact dropping off.

Climate change is real. There are warm days and cold days, warm years and cold years, warm decades and cold decades, warm centuries and cold centuries, warm millenia and cold millennia. And some of those cold centuries were terrible, and most of those cold millennia were very terrible indeed. all of the warm millenia and warm centuries were nicer.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide has no significant effect on the earth’s temperature, because the effect is saturated. Each doubling of carbon dioxide levels produces about the same noticeable but not very alarming rise temperatures.

Each bomb during nuclear testing created a fair bit of carbon fourteen in the atmosphere, but the carbon fourteen in the air disappeared fairly fast, indicating the atmospheric carbon dioxide equilibrates with an enormous reservoir. So worrying about human emissions of carbon dioxide affecting atmospheric levels is like worrying about causing a flood by spitting in lake Michigan.

What does cause changes in carbon dioxide is temperature. When the climate changes for warmer, carbon dioxide levels rise for the next century or two, and when it gets colder, they fall. Because cold rain dissolves more carbon dioxide than warm rain, and carries it into the enormous reservoirs of which I spoke.

Plants hunger and thirst for carbon dioxide. Green houses for agricultural production generally raise the level substantially above current atmospheric levels. Conversely, when carbon dioxide falls to levels typical of ice ages, most plants can barely survive.

During the period that satellites have been observing the earth, it has become seventy percent greener. Partly due areas that were formerly white with snow turning green because the snow melts, mostly areas formerly too hot and dry, now wetter, and everywhere because plants like carbon dioxide.

The world has been getting warmer, greener, wetter, temperatures less extreme, and extreme weather events like hurricanes less frequent, for two or three centuries. Because of year to year and decade to decade fluctuations, it is impossible to say if it is still getting warmer, but it has been getting warmer over the last century or so and probably still is. However, over recent decades, warming has been far less than advertised, and the warming trend may have ended. Or paused for a few decades. Hence the need to manufacture wildfires and burn rural and exurban people out of their homes, as we recently saw in Hawaii and California.

Cold centuries tend to be unpleasant because in response to low rainfall levels, entire populations pick up everything they have, move onto someone else’s land, and kill off everyone. Conversely, warm centuries tend to be peaceful and civilization rises. Or decadent civilizations manage to linger on because the barbarians are comfortable enough in their own lands. (This time around, the barbarians will probably be after pussy, rather than grazing lands for their cattle, since we have a pussy shortage, not a grass shortage.)

Sea levels are rising. They have been rising at about the same rate for about two centuries. They have been rising at three millimeters a year, or one inch a decade. Don’t sell your seafront property just yet.

Remember those low lying lands that were going to disappear by the year two thousand creating hundreds of millions of climate refugees? They have actually grown significantly – because most low lying lands reflect sediment accumulating, and with fewer extreme weather events, it continues to accumulate, but is washed away less often. Sea level has very little effect. Sediment accumulation is by far the dominant factor. If you check out your beach, you will notice the sandhills and the beach grow or drop by about the height of a human over a decade or so. Severe and prolonged bad weather is the major factor causing big drops, and with the world milder than it was, we have less severe and prolonged bad weather. Low lying lands have been growing for a long time, and will keep on growing, like the forests, and for similar reasons.

Trump ignores the climate summit, and dismisses it as dreams and windmills.

“I’m not going to lose that wealth, I’m not going to lose it on dreams, on windmills, which frankly aren’t working too well,”

Greeny heads explode, because the US is supposed to fund the climate scam movement.“Trump views the United States as a busted valise, and he’s a miser hiding his pennies under his pillow.”
The hilarious thing about the greenie reaction to Trump standing them up is that it becomes obvious that the goal was a joint declaration of something expensive, the more expensive the better, with the US footing the bill and the greenies skimming the expenditures.

The “International Community” is the state department, and the greenies are largely NGOs, which are also the state department, so the planned meeting would have been the presidency putting pressure on the president to fund activism against the president.

Climate action primarily consists of shaking down energy companies and disrupting the electricity grid. Even if windmills and all that met their promises, which they never do, the effect on CO2 emissions would be absolutely insignificant.

A number of places, notably South Australia have taken drastic action to transfer to renewable – with the result that in practice they have taken radical action to import energy from states using coal power, and their state grids have suffered alarming brownouts and blackouts.

Action to shake down energy companies and disrupt the electricity grid is indeed unstoppable, but the actual effect of all these measures on CO2 emissions has been near zero. Green energy projects do not in practice generate energy. They generate superior holiness. The objective is never to generate electricity from wind, but to generate holiness from wind, and convert holiness into money and political power. The alternative energy projects are never implemented with serious intention to generate substantial amounts of energy. They merely go through the motions of trying to generate energy, and, as the climategate files reveal, Michael Mann merely went through the motions of investigating whether the world was warming or cooling.

Members of the priestly caste that engage in holiness spiraling are always conmen and frauds, whether Saint Jerome arguing for mandatory priestly celibacy, or Michael Mann arguing that western civilization threatens the earth. And when these priests use priestly power to intrude into merchant activities, as when they get involved in large scale solar power and wind farms, the ensuing business activities are always cons and frauds. The real objective is never to generate power, but to shake down the people operating the energy grid, which results in brownouts, blackouts, and high energy prices. The problem is not just that wind power and solar power are intermittent and unreliable, but that the people implementing wind power and solar power are unreliable. The problem is not the technology, though the technology is unsatisfactory, the big problem is the people implementing the technology. Hydro power is intermittent also, because some years it rains and some years it does not, but we never had the problems with hydro power installations that we are now having with big wind farms and big solar power installations. The problem is that they are not even crooked merchants, they are crooked priests who do not understand and do not care about the business and the technology. They want to destroy technology, not implement renewable energy. The technology works, at a price, or rather could be made to work, at a price, but the operators invariably play the holiness card to scam the grid instead. If you do business with crooks, you get burned.

The climate scam movement is a movement to destroy western civilization in order to steal a few bucks from the energy companies.

The hockey stick curve is a multiproxy reconstruction of past climate, and in a multiproxy reconstruction, you are adding apples to oranges, and there is an alarming amount of room even for an honest well intentioned person to add apples and oranges one way, or to add them in a different way. But Mann’s hockey stick graph was not just based on excessive creativity in the course of adding apples to oranges, but on fraud.

How do I know Mann’s Hockey stick was fraud, rather than excessive creativity in adding apples to oranges?

Dr Tim Ball did a similar multi proxy graph based on substantially the same data, but, unlike Mann, showed his work, revealed his data and mathematical methods.

His multiproxy graph, like every singleproxy graph from all over the world that covers the same period with adequate time resolution, shows the medieval climate optium far warmer than the present, and today’s climate changes far smaller than past climate changes.

The discrepancy between his graph, and Mann’s graph, was so severe that he called Mann a fraud. According to Ball, here was simply no way you could add apples to oranges and get Mann’s graph, no matter how creative you were about adding apples to oranges.

So, is Ball a fraud, or is Mann a fraud? One of them has to be a fraud. How do you know that Mann, rather than Tim Ball, is the fraud?

Mann sued Ball for libel. Ball defended his work on the basis of truth, that it was truthful to call Mann a fraud and the hockey stick graph fraudulent, thus turning the libel case into court trial on which version of our climate past was fraudulent.

Mann tried to win the case by dragging it out and running up endless and enormous legal fees, lawfare tactics that revealed he was speaking power to truth. After eight long years of delay and the artificial manufacture of huge legal bills, the court found in favor of Ball, because Mann refused to supply the calculations whereby he supposedly derived the hockey stick graph from the proxies.

The world is going to end soon unless drastic climate action is taken.

Well then, how soon?

In the year 2000 – oops that report is thirty years old.

In the year 2010 – oops that report is twenty years old

In the year 2020 – oops that report is ten years old.

It is definitely going to end the year 2030.

That is definitely right. All scientists agree. It is the scientific consensus, and if any scientists fail to agree, they will lose their jobs.
If you doubt it, you are anti intellectual and anti science.

How much did temperature actually rise in the past forty years?

0.4°C

Which looks indistinguishable from random variation well within the normal range.

Assuming that the change is real, rather than random variations similar to those that have been going on for centuries, it is not humanly perceptible.

How has temperature changed in the past?

In order to figure that out, need to use proxies, and since using one proxy for the present, and a different proxy for the past gives unlimited freedom to cherry pick results, have to use the same proxy for the present as the past.

In a multiproxy reconstruction, you are necessarily adding apples to oranges, and even if you are being honest, there is a lot of room to get whatever result you want. And the “trick to hide the decline” was very far from being honest.

Individual proxies never show a hockey stick, and seldom show the present warmer than the medieval climate optimum. But somehow, when you put a lot of non hockey stick proxies into the sausage maker, out comes a hockey stick. Or your paper will not pass peer review, and you lose your tenure.

The best proxies are those have high temporal resolution (as for example Law Dome) and that give continuous coverage from the distant past to near the present. Such proxies are usually ice cores. Ice cores have been taken from around the world, and they show nothing unusual about recent temperatures. It has been cooler, and it has been warmer. Temperatures have risen faster in the past, and temperatures have fallen fast in the past.

The best ice core is the Law Dome ice core, because of rapid ice formation and great depth of ice.

All the others show roughly similar results. Some show more warming, some show more cooling but none of them show unusual warming, and none of them show a hockey stick. They show the climate has always been changing, and oftimes, changing a lot more than it is changing now, and most of them show a medieval climate optimum far warmer than the present day.

The basic religious impulse behind global warming is that technology and industrial civilization is a creation of whites, males, and capitalists, and primarily a creation of white male capitalists, therefore must be evil.

The political impulse behind global warming, its strategic value for the blue empire was that the replacement people were largely concentrated in blue coastal federal electorates, thus wasting their votes, so the blue empire wanted to move people who work and don’t commit crimes out of federal electorates in flyover country, where their votes were likely to tip the balance, into coastal areas where they would be massively outvoted. Similarly, the policy of bombing marginal federal electorates in flyover country with black male Muslim military age rapeugees living on crime and welfare. So they wanted to destroy productive activities, such as logging and coal mining, in flyover country. To avoid wasted Democratic votes, they want to move people who work and do not commit crimes out of flyover country, and people who do not work and who do commit crimes into flyover country. Similarly, they want people who vote Democratic armed (hence operation Fast and Furious) so that they can kill people who vote Republican (hence gun control).

The blue empire proceeded to apply its soft power to drag the rest of the world along for the ride. Thus the Paris climate treaty had almost all the pain to be inflicted on flyover country Americans, with just barely enough pain for the rest of the world to make it an “international” treaty (which is to say a treaty where the “international community”, aka the US State Department, agrees with itself), and thus avoid the inconvenience of Americans who lose their jobs because of it being able to vote against it.

To the religious impetus of hostility to industrial civilization, which is to say white male capitalist civilization, was added the impetus of hostility to those horrid rednecks in flyover country.

The only real action item on the Paris accord was smashing Americans in flyover country, making them suffer, and providing political cover for smashing Americans in flyover country. If Americans in flyover county are not being smashed, not one gives a tinker’s dam about the rest of it. It is already sliding out of sight and out of mind.

Trump has not been able to do much about the flood of illegal immigration, but the stops against coal mining and fracking rested on executive orders, and he simply issued new executive orders, whereupon those jobs that “were gone and not coming back” promptly came back.

Coal mines and such are generally in flyover country, Democratic voters on the coast, so, moving legacy American out of flyover country makes more efficient use of imported voters.

But Trump shuts down this tactic, and the entire rest of the world loses interest in Global Warming.

The rest of the world was being put through the motions to provide political cover for the blows against near. Paris was just political cover for shutting down jobs in flyover country, in order to move republican voters into areas full of wasted federal Democratic party votes.

With Trump shutting down that tactic, suddenly the soft power of “the international community” loses interest in Global warming.

One might suppose that this is the result of everyone reacting to the same data at the same time, but not so. When the climategate files came out, it was obvious that global warming was a religion, not science, and that global warming scientists had precisely zero interest in whether global warming was true of this world, that it was a religious truth, not genuinely expected to be empirically verifiable, not really expected to be supported by, or supportable by, the facts of this world.

The empirical evidence for global warming remains about the same as it has ever been. If any warming is happening, the effects are imperceptibly slight, and likely to remain imperceptible for a long time.

But suddenly, around the world, people are forgetting about efforts to fight the terrible scourge of global warming.

For some time warmists have been making a big deal out of disappearing ice at the north pole (Glibly ignoring the fact that the South Pole is far larger than it was when the first expeditions visited the place.)

Every year since 2007 highly honored high status official scientist Peter Wadhams tells us:

Arctic will be ice free in summer next year

After a decade of false predictions, more honored than ever. Being wrong works great for official science, while being right is apt to be fatal for one’s career.

Over the past couple of hundred years the North West passage has sometimes been closed all year, sometimes open briefly during summer. Always too much ice to sail the arctic reliably even in summer, always too little ice to reliably and safely reach the North Pole by sled even in winter. There is always ice, even in the North West Passage in summer, there is always open water, even at the North Pole in winter, and that is the way it is always been. Hard to see any climate change, because the day to day weather changes, and the year to year weather changes, are vastly bigger than the supposed climate change.

This year, even icebreakers could not make the Northwest passage in high summer.

Yes, the Arctic has less ice than it used to. And the Antarctic more, but I am not seeing a trend, just pink noise, temporally correlated random variation, a fractal roughly half way between red noise (a random walk) and white noise. If there is a trend, hard to discern against a background of large random changes. Finding patterns in climate change is not a whole lot easier than finding patterns in stock market price change. Retrodiction is apt to be a whole lot easier than prediction.

I will now predict the Arctic climate and weather:

The North West Passage has been open before and closed before: It will be open again, and closed again.

There have been large areas of open sea at the North Pole before, and it has been entirely covered by thick ice before: It will be covered by ice again, and open sea again.

There has always been enough ice that it is a big problem for ships even in high summer: There will continue to be enough ice that it is a big problem for ships even in high summer.

There has always been enough open sea at the North Pole that it is a big problem for sleds even in mid winter: There will continue to be enough open sea that it is a big problem for sleds even in mid winter.

It is rarely possible to reach the North Pole by ship, because ice is usually in the way. It is usually difficult and often dangerous to reach the North Pole by sled, because water is usually in way. Sledding and sailing has become easier, because aided by satellite observations, and because one can be rescued by helicopter. Helicopter rescues will continue to happen from time to time, both because of too little open water for ships, and too much open water for sleds.

It is plausible that the world has warmed very slightly – but in any one location, if we count the number of unusually cold events, anomalous snowfalls, and the like, and compare with the number of unusually warm events, we are just as likely to get more cold events and less warm events in recent times than the converse.

To detect global warming, you have to average over the entire world, and it is unclear and debateable how to make an apples to apples average over the entire world.

It is plausible that there has been a bit of warming over the past few decades for reasonable ways of doing the averaging. But polar bears are not only unlikely to go extinct, they are unlikely to notice.  Regions where sea levels have been falling are approximately equal to regions where sea levels have been rising.  To measure sea level rise, you run into the same problems as detecting global warming.  You have to average over the whole world, because the signal in any one area is swamped by various random things, and it is unclear how to do a valid average over the entire world.

And similarly, coral bleaching events. There have always been coral bleaching events. Coral grows till it gets too close to the surface, there is an unusually low tide, and the coral dies back, bleaching. I have seen a few coral bleaching events, and it always shallow water coral hit by an abnormally low tide. Similarly, glaciers are always calving, have always been calving, even though each time a big iceberg breaks off a glacier, it is announced as proof of global warming.

You may have heard that the North Pole is melting – though no one told you that the South Pole has grown, and is now vastly larger than it was a hundred years ago.

This arctic summer, the Northwest passage failed to open. A few days ago, at the time of year when arctic ice is least, an icebreaker cruise ship attempted to force passage, repeatedly ramming very thick ice. The ship broke, the ice did not break.

Well, Warmists will say, that is weather, not climate, and they are of course, correct. But the bottom line is that a hundred years ago, the Northwest Passage through the arctic sometimes opened in high summer and sometimes did not, and today the Northwest Passage sometimes opens in high summer, and sometimes does not.

Changes in the weather remain enormously larger than changes in the climate, making it very difficult to detect any change in the climate.

The climate is always changing. Climate Change is always true. But over the last hundred year or so, it has not changed enough for unaided human senses, or even human senses aided by ordinary and reasonably affordable instruments, to detect. Sometimes the climate does change dramatically, sometimes catastrophically, in a hundred years or so. But not this last hundred years or so.

So, why the high drama about global warming? Why the catastrophism? Why the demand for dramatic changes that somehow always result in our power system being looted and damaged?

The reason for the high drama is that science, technology, and industrialization was created by white male capitalists, an enormous achievement for which mankind should be eternally grateful. And people who hate whites, hate males, and hate capitalism want to destroy science, technology, and industrialization. Anyone who talks about Global Warming or Climate Change in ways that imply it is an important crusade hates you and intends you harm. Maybe he wants to lower your status. Maybe he wants to exterminate your race. But either way, he is your enemy. Whosoever talks catastrophic global warming hates you and is motivated by desire to harm you.

Whites, males, capitalists, and white male capitalists created all the good stuff, so they tend to have most of the good stuff, so people who want to take our stuff hate us. Hate whites, hate males, hate capitalists, and particularly hate white male capitalists.

Warmism is an updated and rebranded version of the old Mexican religion, demon worship. The priests announce that unless human sacrifices are made, the sun will cease to rise.

And, guess what, this gives the priests a whole lot of influence over which people get sacrificed to sun god, and which people do not. Thus we find the priests of global warming involved in all sorts of highly lucrative schemes whereby carbon indulgences are sold, and subsidies handed out, with the result that certain priests of global warming get a whole lot of money, for example the carbon indulgences sold by Carbonscape.

The demons were worshiped through cannibalism, sodomy, and transvestism.  (That is how you can tell that they were demons, rather than angels or saints.)  While we no longer have literal cannibalism, the food to fuel program has similar results, and we still have sodomy and transvestism as priestly acts demonstrating priestly holiness, as for example in Earth Worship conducted by Less Wrong.

Certain Indian nations were somewhat ticked off that the Aztecs were always sacrificing them, and they were not sacrificing Aztecs, and therefore took advantage of Cortez’s invasion to revolt against the Aztecs. Whereupon it became apparent that their priests were secretly in cahoots with the Aztec priests to facilitate Aztec domination of their people and Aztec cannibalism of their people – that the Gods would make announcements through the temples of the revolting tribes that were planned and coordinated in the Aztec capital. In other words, the old Gods of Mexico made their proclamations via peer review.