Time for Kings

December 3rd, 2023

The time of Republics has ended. The time of Kings approaches.

It is said that comes the hour, comes the man. We shall see. The hour is near, and yet the man is nowhere in sight.

The technology and tactics of warfare are rapidly changing, and no one has quite figured it out yet. The meaning of war itself is changing, and its future shape has not yet been revealed. The King will be a man who knows what he is doing, and no one knows they are doing yet.

Russia is planning an army of two million grunts, but most of the casualties and destruction that Russia and the Ukraine inflict on each other come from a hundred or so of the top drone operators, the best of the best, on both sides. Increasingly often, we see battles won or lost by drones alone, with grunts just showing up to plant the flag after the battle is done. Tanks have become just taxis to bring grunts to and from the battle field, artillery is just to level the buildings that provide cover for the other side’s grunts, and grunts are mattering less.

The technology of war is changing radically, and its shape is not yet clear, but it is starting to look like it will involve a very small number of very able people. But, even more importantly, the meaning of war is changing.

The sixteenth of and seventeenth century was a time of holy wars, the wars of the Protestant revolution.

We have seen “cabinet wars” – Bismarks “politics by other means”, limited wars fought for limited objectives. Putin attempted a cabinet war in the Ukraine.

We have seen national wars, the wars of Nations, exemplified by the Napoleonic wars. World War One and Two were national wars. Putin attempted politics by other means in in the Ukraine, America upped the ante on Putin from cabinet war to a war of nations.

Yevgeny Prigozhin realized this was stupid, and upped the ante on America from war of nations to holy war, and Putin reluctantly followed along behind him. Prigozhin was fighting for God, and the west found it was fighting for the gay parade, sodomy, Global Warming, the right of sodomites to hang out in women’s bathrooms, and the right of schoolchildren to be sexually transitioned without parental consent. Also the right of black people to jump subway turnstiles.

Our rulers worship demons, and Prigozhin noticed. The coming Kings will come from those who notice. Putin murdered Prigozhin, for Putin foresaw that from such men, Kings may come.

Posted in politics, war | 225 Comments »

Moderation policy

December 1st, 2023

Comments that employ new email addresses, addresses that have not yet been white listed, have been being silently deleted for some time, because I am being snowed under by shills and cannot spend the time to address each new shill email address individually. This seems be a deliberate plot to make it difficult for new commentators to get whitelisted. Unfortunately it is working.

For your new email address to get whitelisted, you have to lead with a thought crime.

You can copy and paste from the numerous though crimes posted on this blog, with three clicks, or state your own thought crime in your own words, or write a thoughtful essay disagreeing and with and rejecting the thought crime, which will pass and get you white listed if it makes clear what the thought crime you are disagreeing with is. (For it is forbidden to know what is forbidden, so anyone who can say what is forbidden passes, even if you say “such and such is rightly forbidden because it is a conspiracy theory posted by evil Russians to overthrow democracy”, if you can tell us the actual content, if you can tell us what these evil Russians are saying, you still pass the shill test.)

If you tell me that I am evil Jewish Rothschild Muslim Russian bot, and I am wrong because of such and such, and your explanation of why I am wrong reveals what I am in fact saying, this passes the shill test, for it is forbidden to know what is forbidden.

On the other hand, comments of the form “Hail fellow white straight male Christian” are apt to be deleted on sight, for they almost always come from gay jews who worship demons. People who are actually white or straight don’t make a point of it, because they tend to presuppose that Jews do not exist, gays do not exist, women do not exist, except perhaps in some weird and silly place far away and of little interest to normal men going about their normal business, that everyone on the internet is white, straight, and male except for robotic spam generated by ChatGPT.

Some thought crimes that will get you on the whitelist:

What did Soros do to bring about the deaths of half a million Ukrainian Goyim?

How did Soros make his money? (The official government answer will of course get your response silently deleted, unless accompanied by an explanation of why the answer given by us evil racist conspiracy theorists is wrong, which explanation has to reveal what us evil racist racist Hitler apologist racists say how Soros made his money.)

What are the biological differences between blacks and whites, and why does this make it impractical for blacks and whites to live together under the same laws applying to them both equally? How and why, for example, did Detroit turn from the magnificent Paris of the East to a desolate abandoned empty ruin? It is impossible to truthfully describe the fall of Detroit without committing thought crimes that will get you whitelisted, just as it is impossible to truthfully describe the career of Soros without committing thought crimes that will get you white listed, both of them being hate facts.

Why do women misbehave? Why are men and women not getting sex and family?

You can give one of the non thought crime answers, but in your response you have to critique the thought crime answer in a way that reveals to the reader what it was. To pass the shill test, you do not have to agree with the thought crime answer, but you have to reveal that your interlocutor agrees with it, that just about everyone on this blog agrees with it.

Cutting and pasting is allowed and encouraged. The simplest way to pass the shill test to cut and past answer five. Or you could say that answer five is wrong because of such and such, in way that reveals what answer five was. That also passes the shill test.

Possible answers to the woman question:

1. Capitalism makes them misbehave, by economically incentivizing reckless high time-reference behavior over long-term planning. The capitalist class benefits from one night stands and sterility, as it benefits from third world immigration of spendthrift cheap labor to replace frugal Whites. If it weren’t for capitali$m, women would totally be completely sinless angels.

2. The (((jews))) make these totally innocent angels misbehave, since the jews own the media and the entire entertainment industry from Hollywood down to the tiniest pornography studio, and use them to direct propaganda at women, telling them to fuck Blacks and lowlifes. There’s no way that pure White women desire to be on OnlyFans to whore for money. The jews forced these angels on that website.

3. Sorry, but this is a misleading question. Women don’t misbehave at all. All misbehavior is done by men, who are vile pigs.

4. Lecherous men make them misbehave, since men are ultimately responsible for all female behavior (including misbehavior), and unlike women, men have self-control and moral agency. Thus it logically follows that any female misbehavior would merely reflect bad decisions taken by irresponsible and lustful men. It is men’s fault entirely, so men must be forced to pay for every bad decision done by any random women.

5 They are feral, blindly following ancient instincts from prehistoric times, which instincts tell them to cruise for rape by alpha male Chads, and to resist kicking-and-screaming all attempts to restrain them from pursuing alpha male Chads. Stable monogamy has always been a way to allow each man to own a woman so each man can start a family and raise a future generation for civilization’s survival. If women are emancipated, Miss Average will waste her youth, her beauty, and her fertility fucking Mister One in Thirty, thus a people, a race, a nation, a faith, or an empire that emancipates women will perish for lack of families, leading to lack of sons. Men have to impose stable monogamy on women with a stick.

Posted in Uncategorized | 240 Comments »

Some bad predictions

November 22nd, 2023

I predicted after the election was massively rigged that the deep state would cease to employ the outer party, that the Republicans would not win an election for dogcatcher. Instead they continued to employ the outer party, but massively rigged the primaries, with the Republicans running candidates that outraged, demoralized, dismayed, and horrified the base. With the collapse of the censorship regime, I hear congressmen talking about this dismay and demoralization, while being rather delicate about what is causing it.

I predicted that the halt of movement left to ever more radical leftism, would not be accomplished except by a Caesar taking power, and the halt was likely to be bloody

It is early days yet, but so far looks more like the French Thermidor, which had no clear leader, was severely incohesive, and was not bloody. And promptly came under high pressure from the radical left and the reactionary right. Which troubles in the end they had to resolve by calling in Caesar.

Simultaneously with massive election rigging setting in America, massive election rigging occurred throughout the Global American Empire. But in Argentina we just saw an election in which the election rigging, though large, was ineffectual against the landslide. Incohesion among the election riggers in Argentina set in simultaneously with incohesion among American censors.

As Vivek and Musk explain, the censorship apparatus is an arm of the deep state, with its personnel taking direction from the spy agencies, and many of its personnel having both spy agency hats and private sector hats, and changing hats frequently. So the incohesion we are seeing in the censorship apparatus indicates incohesion in the deep state. Presumably the same thing happened in the Argentinian elections. And is therefore likely to happen in future Republican primaries and in the coming elections.

Javier Milei, the Argentinian Trump, however does not look genuine grassroots. His foreign policy (pro US fiat, pro Israel, pro Jewish, pro Ukraine War, pro China war) looks strangely similar to that of the obvious Thermidorean glowies I am suppressing on this blog. But his libertarianism, populism, and capitalism looks very real.

Capitalism failed in Latin America because when socialism became discredited after the fall of the Soviet Union, they, like Yeltzin’s Russia, imported postmodern capitalism from Harvard and Washington — with a disproportionate number of the carryon baggers coming in to steal everything not nailed down coming from Tel Aviv. In Latin America, they called this “neoliberalism” This was disastrous for Latin America, as it was disastrous for Russia. Then they had another go at socialism, which was just as disastrous, or even more disastrous, but socialism has a more popular story.

Cohesion is the capacity of many to act as one, a corporation is many people acting as one person, and the modern joint-stock for-profit publicly traded corporation is many acting as one to make a living. The postmodern corporation, not so cohesive, and thus not so corporate.

Jason Milei is, in many ways, an Argentinian Trump. But Trumps policy on Empire was Gorbachev like, that the state of the US empire should be allowed to be culturally themselves, should be allowed more cultural and social independence. A president who is converting to Judaism and flying to Israel does not look like cultural independence or the Argentinian cultural and racial identity. If I was running for office in Argentina, would convert to Roman Catholicism and be seen attending the mass of a radical anti Vatican priest.

What remains to be seen is whether Milie will implement modern corporate capitalism in Argentina, the corporate capitalism of Charles the Second and the Dutch Republic, or merely have another go at postmodern capitalism, which will have the same outcome as it did last time in Latin America. Postmodern capitalism is not actually all corporate, because a multitude of stakeholders, all of carefully filtered for allegiance to the faith of Harvard, have power independent of the board and the CEO, and pull the company in different directions, which tends to devolve into looting the corporation and pissing all over customers, suppliers, and shareholders. It leads to the corporation having cohesion around sodomy, abortion, and transexuality, while losing cohesion around profit, buying, selling, manufacturing, and managing capital. It abandons the mechanisms established by Charles the second and the Dutch Republic to give the corporation to act as one in the economic interest of shareholders. That Vivek has not criticised SoX suggests that the Thermidoreans are unwilling to let go of postmodern capitalism – they are the guys looting empire, and looting the corporate form. On the other hand, Vivek has criticized stake holder capitalism and Milei knows enough economics to understand why it is a disaster, so, maybe.

Posted in Uncategorized | 339 Comments »

Thermidor begins

November 18th, 2023

I have been smelling a Thermidor in the wind for some time, but expected it to begin with the removal, possibly the lethal removal, of some of the people pulling Biden’s strings. This may have happened in a nonlethal fashion, or perhaps they all changed their minds simultaneously. Whatever happened was less visible than I expected. Are all the usual Biden handlers still to be found?

Hamas attacked Israel. Suddenly the usual suspects decided that they needed some white straight Christian males to die in the next forever war on the desert sands several thousand miles from home for people who hate them, and noticed that the unrelenting hatred and state sponsored violence against those demographics was having a noticeable effect on recruiting. So the word went out to cut it out, at least in army recruiting videos.

The reaction was not gratitude, but an outpouring of long repressed and long silenced outrage. And suddenly the censorship regime is in full retreat, with message handlers in high places pissing on each other and defecting against each other. Those in power are unsure what to do, which uncertainty means that what the official line should be is uncertain. Which uncertainty is manifesting in public fights, rather than being quietly settled behind the scenes as usual.

Power in the Cathedral is far more concentrated and less distributed than it pretends to be, but it is sufficiently distributed that the always difficult maneuver of retreat under fire is very difficult indeed.

Plus, the huge number of Mohammedans the Jews have imported to use against whites and Christians is now biting them. The shills are always correctly pointing out that alliance between Christians and Mohammedans against the demon worshippers is likely to end in the Muslims stabbing everyone in the back. How did the Jews think the Jewish Mohammedans alliance against whites and Christians was going to end? The Jewish left is telling the brown left to keep the Muslims in line, and the brown left is telling the Jewish left that they don’t like Jews any more than they like whites. All that race baiting and race mongering is coming back to bite them. If it is horribly racist to notice or care about whites being killed by browns, then it is racist to notice or care about Jews being killed. The brown left is being consistent, and the more consistent faction always wins the internal struggle.

The empire is in external retreat in its far flung distant provinces, and wanted few more forever wars to hold the line. So it decided to freeze the conflict with legacy Americans. That internal conflict has so far declined to freeze. the external shooting war in the Ukraine is unlikely to freeze. Conflict in the middle east is still only a little above frozen conflict levels, but will not necessarily remain so.

This is starting to look a little like a Gorbachev event. I was expecting conflicts within the elite to eventually be resolved lethally, but this is looking more like what happens when the ruling faith is walking dead as in Soviet Union or Monk’s England Perhaps going out too far on a limb on point deer make horse, followed by the abrupt swing to Covid, and the equally abrupt swing to RussiaRussiaRussia, plus the astonishing wealth that has accrued to Fauci personally and to the medical industrial complex, has caused too much quiet cynicism within the elite.

The weaponization of the judiciary and the abandonment of free elections could only be carried out by those whose faith was pure. Their faith does not seem to be all that pure. This weakness unlikely to lead to judicial neutrality or fair elections, but is likely to lead to everyone openly noticing that elections are over and the judiciary are the criminals.

What happens next? Well. I have no idea what specifically will happen, but retreat under fire is difficult and only gets more difficult, and stuffing chaos back in the bottle is difficult at the best of times, and gets more difficult during a retreat under fire.

The new abnormal is has been getting ever more abnormal ever faster for decades, but always only in one direction, ever lefter, though which direction was leftwards has been radically redefined at ever shorter intervals. But this change is not in the direction of ever lefter. I think the chance it will be in the direction of normality is remote, but I have just been proven wrong about one thing. I thought the ruling faith was more sincerely held than it was, though the abrupt changes in direction over the past few years should have caused me doubt. Perhaps I will be wrong about another. I hope I am.

There is obviously a substantial faction among the ruling elite that, looking at the present crisis, wants to go back to the recent abnormal, wants a controlled retreat to the way things were. Were when? They seem to have a problem agreeing on that.

The reason that Biden was installed is that they were unable to agree on a leader, so they put him in as placeholder. They now need a leader urgently, but seem even less able to agree.

Now it would be very nice if they decided to let elections take their natural course – which would lead to an unprecedented Trump landslide, a radical purge of the rinos, and a two party system in place of the uniparty system. Would not result, however, in a judiciary that anyone is likely to respect, nor in a civil service capable of finding its rear with both hands. The latter are problems that require a strong and competent King, followed by a strong and competent son of that King.

I don’t think that an orderly retreat to free and fair elections is on the cards. What they might attempt instead is a partial retreat a little way in that direction. Which is as likely to get out of control as any retreat. Which is likely to result in one fair and free election once.

But then, there are lots of things they might do. The worst case outcome for us is that they abandon empire beyond the seas and instead fully focus on crushing their enemies at home. One obstacle to this that the reason they were have long been so comfortable in destroying American cities and industry is that the wealth of the elite comes from creaming off gravy of external empire. So an inwards focus means a whole lot of the elite suddenly become a whole lot worse off financially. America becomes Venezuela.

I have long bemoaned the fact we are mighty short on potential Caesars. But chaos and the unexpected will continue to happen until a strong leader appears and takes great power into his own hands, and our enemies so far appear mighty hard up for strong leaders also.

Expect the unexpected, and prepare for interesting times. The breath of Glasnost in the air over the last few days hints at the possibility of a collapse less bloody and terrible than the one I have long predicted.

Posted in politics | 188 Comments »

Bidenomics

November 16th, 2023

According to official statistics, everything is coming up roses. Inflation is way down, unemployment is way down, GDP is way up, and we are doing so much better than under the horrible horrible Trump economy.

Looking out the window of the plane from ten thousand feet as it comes in to the airport, you can see that not everything is coming up roses.

The Democrats noticed that not everyone seems impressed by the wonderful economic performance of the Biden regime and so they commissioned some push polls.

The purpose of a push poll is not to find out what the public thinks. Everyone already knows what the public thinks about the economy. It is to change what people think. The pollster asks “How do you feel about everything coming up roses and the wonderful job Biden is doing” (Perhaps I exaggerate, but not by much.)

It is the standard shill tactic of false consensus. Supposedly everyone knows and agrees things are wonderful, and the pollster wants to find out how wonderfully you are enjoying all this wonderfulness.

Presumably they were calling up normies, but the normies gave them much the same answer as they would have received on this blog. They got a thirty five percent approval rating, which in a push poll does not indicate that thirty five percent approve. It indicates that of those people the pollster called who were too polite to hang up on him and call him names, or call him names and then hang up on him, thirty five percent were too polite to say “stop pissing on me and telling me that it is raining.”

Ever since hedonic adjustment was introduced (because the statistics need to show that toilets that do not flush, clothes washing machines that do not spin, and cars made of tinfoil and plastic and held together by chewing gum are a huge improvement in the standard of living) the statistics have been improbable. And now they are rapidly getting a great deal more improbable, reaching Soviet levels of mendacity, resulting in Soviet levels of disbelief and cynicism.

We are not the voice in the wilderness. They are. They have the loudspeaker and we do not, but no one is listening.

Posted in economics | 80 Comments »

The dissolution of the Monasteries 2.0

November 4th, 2023

I always talk about Charles the Second, who undid a left singularity and built good economic and religious institutions.

But I also frequently comment that fixing the problem requires the dissolution of the monasteries, which is a reference to Henry the eighth

I normally do not cover the news of the day, but couple of days ago, Trump proposed the dissolution of the monasteries.

A future American ruler is likely to need to implement this plan, for the reasons that Henry the eighth needed to implement it. He probably will not want a full break with progressivism, as Henry the eighth did not want a full break with Roman Catholicism. But, faced with resistance, Henry the eighth turned to the protestants. And a future American ruler attempting to implement something like this is going to face resistance similar to that faced by Henry the eighth.

One obvious problem is that Henry the eighth was a warrior and leader of a warrior people, while Trump is a merchant, and a bit old to change. His reaction to stubborn resistance is likely to be to attempt to make a deal with those with whom no deal can be made, as it always has been. You cannot talk to these people, they will not hear, so even less can one make a deal with them.

Posted in culture, Faith, party politics, politics | 470 Comments »

Not time for war with Islam

October 28th, 2023

Since the war in the Ukraine is not going too well, the faction currently in the saddle in the Global American Empire is looking for war with Islam.

For a long time the ruling faction has been seeking to converge Islam, and to this end, because they have had considerable success in converging the official faith of Iran, pursued an accommodation policy to Iran. Biden and the generals have now suddenly started talking war with Iran, which is an abrupt and sudden one eighty, and the shill Christians and fake right on Gab and on this blog are now arguing that the current invasion of the west is Jihad by Muslims. During the past forty eight hours, the US government has been issuing threats against Iran, to discourage them from intervening.

A few days before this, the fake Christians and the usual shills and entryists started promoting the Islamic Jihad narrative. Supposedly the current invasion of America is Islamic Jihad. And therefore the right, the reaction, and the Christian Nationalists should support war with Islam now. I should have seen what was coming when the usual shills and entryists on this blog suddenly started complaining about Islamic Jihad, which was a thought crime until a few days ago. Until a few days ago, when I talked about Jihad, the shills would respond as if neither I nor anyone else had ever had that thought. And then a few days before Israel claimed to be engaging Hamas for real, the shills abruptly went to the other extreme.

No it is not Jihad by Muslims. The only reason Mohammedan invaders in America are a problem is that the Democrats. in substantial part the same Jews who organized the brother war in the Ukraine, are importing them to live on crime, welfare, and voting Democrat. We don’t need to fight a war with them. That problem is not Mohammedans, but Democrats, and in grossly disproportionate part, Jewish Democrats. Stop crime, turn off welfare, and turn off voting Democrat, and they will take the next boat home. We can worry about recovering the Holy Land, Egypt, and the bits of Eastern Europe that they have in century or two. The Indians will need to worry a little sooner than that, but we have bigger problems. Our problem being that the officially unofficial state religion is demon worship, and sooner or later there is going to be a holy war inside America over that, for demon worship unopposed always gets crazier and crazier, and demands greater and greater human sacrifices. And in the coming holy war with our officially unofficial state religion, old type Mohammedans will be our allies. Highly unreliable and dangerous allies, but me against my brothers, me and my brothers against our cousins, me and my cousins against the world. In the coming holy war, Muslims are our cousins.

The war in the Ukraine is the work of Blinken, Nuland, Kagan, and Soros. All of whom hate Ukrainians even more than they hate Russians, and hate legacy Americans more than anyone.

Soros, under instruction by the state department, using money provided by the American taxpayer and laundered to Soros by the World Bank, conducted color revolution in the Ukraine, arranging for his own people to be shot in a false flag operation. (Working for the GAE is bad for your health, for it is run by people who hate you) The Ukrainian government was appointed by Victoria Nuland, in a conversation that the Russians bugged and leaked. From 2014 onwards, the Global American Empire appointed government in the Ukraine has been shelling civilians who speak Russian, think themselves Russian, and are considered Russians by Russians. This shelling of civilians came, in large part, from locations a few minutes walk from a heavily fortified officially unofficial Nato base in Avdiika. This program looks like it was instituted, or at least advocated, by Kagan, who is not officially part of the US government, but has the ear of Blinken and Nuland. He was following the Reaganesque strategy of drawing Russia into attritive war to exhaust them, but he is no Reagan. Reagan’s strategy, as he told us in the primaries, was that the Soviet Union had great soft power, but its GDP was fake and gay, so could be logistically exhausted in a multitude of pinprick attritive wars, and its soft power was diminishing, and would diminish a whole lot further with logistic exhaustion. Today, it is the Global American Empire that has great soft power, but its GDP is fake and gay, and its soft power is diminishing.

The current brother war in the Ukraine, which was created and is run by certain Jews, has killed about four hundred thousand Goyim, and the way the wind blows, there may well be nukes soon enough. What have the Mohammedans been up to?

Mostly killing each other over sand. The Arabs cannot get it together, the Taliban are good guys so far. The only guys who could actually prosecute a serious war are the Iranians, and if it is Iran versus Israel, why should I care? Iran is not going to invade America. They might hog the Middle Eastern oil, but we should be developing our own oil. America should be a major oil exporter, and if the Iranians wind up jacking the price of oil through the roof, that is good for us (provided we can crush the worshippers of the Gaia demon) and bad for China. Looks like future war in Afghanistan is going to over water, and to the extent that it is holy war, going to be old type Muslims versus postmodern Muslims. Not our problem.

Posted in war | 336 Comments »

The Book of Revelation

October 14th, 2023

Christian evangelicals have a one sided love affair with Israel. They love Israel, and Israel hates them.

They misinterpret the Book of Revelations. The Jews have returned to Israel for another chance at redemption, which requires them to come to Jesus. The way the wind blows, they have returned to Israel for another tribulation. If America goes Christian nationalist, then Israel might go Messianic Jew, in which case a less unpleasant prophecy might then be applicable.

A faith is a synthetic tribe. When governments disintegrate, the most cohesive synthetic tribe tribe takes power, which is why in Russia the left minority (the Kadets) took power from the Tsar, a leftist minority of that minority (the socialists) then took power, a leftist minority of that minority (the communists) then took power, and leftist minority of the communists (the Bolsheviks) then took power. You always have an army, and you always have an official faith. In our case, an officially unofficial faith.

Christian Nationalism is right now by far the largest cohesive synthetic tribe, with ten percent of the percent of the population being strong adherents. In the event of a crackup, which looks increasingly likely with Global American Empire falling, we stand a good chance of taking power. Our adversaries will be the woke, who are the current ruling faith, the communists, and the Mohammedans.

Problem is that the most cohesive faction within Christian Nationalism expects to immanentize the eschaton, which is always a disastrous idea. It is becoming very possible that Christian Nationalists will take power in America, as our government is increasingly incohesive, foreshadowing a crackup, and the woke are becoming cynical about wokism, after too many U turns, too quickly. But, though Christian Nationalism is the most cohesive large group, and you need a large group to take power, a large group is too large to rule, and a smaller group within that group is apt to take power, proclaiming itself the executive organ of that larger group., as repeatedly happened during the Russian Revolution.

And a substantial and cohesive faction of Christian nationalists expect and intend to immanentize the eschaton. Which is always a disastrous idea. On the other hand, that faction tends to be passive. They expect Christ to do the heavy lifting.

Until the late nineteenth century, the Book of Revelation was generally not interpreted as Christ making the eschaton immanent. Rather, the prophesied troubles were put in the context of the eschaton. Some of the prophecies have been fulfilled, some have been fulfilled over and over and are likely about to be fulfilled again. It does not mean the eschaton is about to become immanent.

We have to do the heavy lifting.

Posted in Faith, war | 535 Comments »

Future war

October 7th, 2023

Airsea power is going down. After ever increasing efforts to keep their fleet in Sebastopol, the Russians are finally pulling their fleet back, despite clear and overwhelming airsea dominance over Ukraine. If the Russians are pulling their fleet back from Sebastopol, US airsea bases ringing China are just hostages.

Drone warfare has become dominant, and is rapidly becoming more dominant, rendering grunts trudging through mud increasingly irrelevant. In future war the grunts will be sent in to run up the flag and install supply depots for the drones after the battle is won.

The front line is dissolving, becoming ever deeper, broader, vaguer, and more porous. A multitude of bloggers are trying to figure out where the front line is, and legitimately disagree. Hence the meaningless debate on whether the Ukraine has reached the first line of defence, and on whether they have penetrated it. Troops are spread out more and more thinly, because the closer any soldier is to another soldier, the more likely he is to be identified.

No one knows how to do war of movement yet in a conflict of peer powers. It is all horrifying and terrible war of attrition. The Russians have some bright ideas on how to do an offensive, and are trying them out right now, starting this morning. But they are still pussyfooting around because no one knows how to do it yet. Their basic idea is to shut down enemy movement deep within enemy territory, and then the cut off troops will eventually surrender. We shall see what happens. If it works, the surrender is likely to take quite a while. If it works, no one will know that it is working for a quite a while.

Assassination of enemy leaders is still off the table, but targeted killings are moving steadily and rapidly up the chain of command.

Troops attempting to advance are looking more and more like spies and infiltrators, and less and less like an army on the march. The dissolving front line is likely to foreshadow the front line being everywhere, with battles resembling the sudden manifestation of flash crowd, rather than an army advancing. In retrospect the question of whether the Ukrainians reached the first line of defence is likely to be irrelevant and meaningless.

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Posted in war | 464 Comments »

Ukraine counter offensive update.

September 11th, 2023

I don’t cover the events of the day, but in my previous post I remarked:

This is not a tactic that can be repeated too many times. You continually need fresh troops. And they are now running mighty short of fresh troops. At the moment the offensive is stalled, awaiting the next shipment of fresh cannon fodder. I have repeatedly been surprised by their ability to dig up more cannon fodder, and likely I will be surprised again, but they have been digging mighty hard, and will have to dig a whole lot harder.

One day after that post:

Men with missing limbs have now received callup notices. Next time I need to preen on predictions this is going on the list.

When Napoleon started conscripting men with missing limbs, the end was not far off. And he never considered calling up women in their fifties. I think the Ukrainians have watched too many action girl movies.

Ukrainian ground troops have reached the first line of defence, but it has not been penetrated, in the sense that tanks and armoured personnel carriers cannot drive through it – or even get near it. They dump cannon fodder some distance away, which cannon fodder is then marched over minefields under artillery and drone fire to the first line of defence. Cannon fodder being cheaper and more easily replaceable than tanks or armoured personnel carriers. However, replacing cannon fodder is evidently becoming considerably more difficult.

It will be interesting to see how the war goes when one side is relying on women, cripples, and the elderly.

Posted in war | 602 Comments »

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