Peak Oil

If you discover more than ten years of reserves, politicians are apt to take it away from you.

So for the last hundred years or so, the world has only had ten years worth of proven oil reserves left and has been about to run out in ten years or so. In fact the world has only had about ten years of anything left for the past hundred years or so.

King Hubbert created a composite, mega-decline curve that predicted U.S. crude oil production would peak in the 1965-70 time period. But, of course, it did not decline. So his prediction was retroactively relabelled “Lower 48 states Oil Production”. Which retrodiction was true – for a while. Retrodictions always are. See global warming for example.

Well, for some time US oil production in the lower 48 states has been increasing. So it was re-relabelled “Lower 48 states conventional oil Production” The new story was that fracking has intolerable environmental and financial costs, so is not a practical replacement for old type oil production.

When Trump stopped the government from funding and organizing people to protest fracking, the intolerable environmental costs mysteriously vanished in a puff of smoke, and when Trump made it easier to get permission to frack, so did a large part the economic costs, with the result that US frackers are now giving the Saudis a hard time.

For a given technology, and a given price, a given oilfield or group of oilfields does indeed follow a Hubberd Curve, and you can use the curve to estimate what the real reserves are. (They are usually enormously greater than the official reserves.)

Although science has been stagnating since Harvard got the upper hand over the Royal Society, technology that makes money continues to advance. We have a problem with new blue sky technologies. No one in the west is developing new technologies any more, just polishing up existing profitable technologies. We are not getting any replacement for chip patterning using one hundred and ninety three nanometer excimer laser lithography, just ever more minute improvements in excimer laser lithography, with the result that Moore’s law has run out of puff. People keep talking about ten nanometer, but it is just not going anywhere. They keep saying they will use both one ninety and ten. If ten was working, would not use one ninety. If they were talking ninety nanometer, rather than ten, then I would be impressed. If someone could make money out of supersonic jets, we would get better and better supersonics, but instead, planes are slowing down, not speeding up. But people could make money out of drilling and stimulating oil fields, so drilling and oilfield stimulation got better and better, and continues to improve.

Physical resources are effectively infinite, in that physical limits to growth are unlikely to be a significant problem in the reasonably foreseeable future. The problem is social decay.

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80 Responses to “Peak Oil”

  1. person says:

    Jim, thank you for another very interesting post. I have three question topics.

    1. Why would the government have wanted to prevent fracking from taking place, or limit perceived oil reserves? From a position of ignorance, it seems that obtaining more oil would be a good thing for both political parties.
    2. Is autism real in the sense that what psychiatrists say about it is true? If not, then how would you describe the condition to which we refer with the term “autism”? Is it curable? As a person diagnosed with a high-functioning form of the condition, what should my attitude to it and, more broadly, my life be?
    3. Which books, blogs, and other media might be of interest to a person wishing to learn more about history and politics from — to put it crudely — a Jimian/neoreactionary standpoint?

    • jim says:

      1 Irrational and demented hatred. Our priesthood hates and demonizes all non priests and wants to inflict harm on them. Hates the working class and hates the capitalist class. Feels that producing stuff is a violation of the earth. Wants flyover country to return to its natural state, while frackers are causing it to depart from its natural states. Feels that people who frack are white male racists.

      2. No idea. I don’t even know what autism is, and I doubt those who think that they do know.

      3. Not sure. The best places for such thoughts are, for obvious reasons, invitation only and their existence is a narrowly shared secret. Roissy is pretty good. Vox Day is pretty good. And, of course, reading Moldbug from beginning to end is very good indeed.

      • Turtle says:

        I will disagree here.

        I live in shitlibistan, with more of the hippie sort of Boomers who pretend to be Silent Gen Beatniks, and they do know why they hate fracking. It’s too wise and earnest for them, just like walking on water instead of needing boats (they want “alternative fuels,” which is a lie, like polyamory or free healthcare). Not only does “drill, baby drill” make common sense, while they only believe in “counter-intuitive non-dual bulllshiticus esoteric paradoxalesian madness,” but it’s affectionate, as if the land is OURS TO ENJOY. Frackers love the earth, as evidenced by the profits they earn by accepting God’s gifts from it. They treat this planet right! They disprove the pretension to holiness of gaia-pagans! And so, they are, like God’s angels being hated by lucifer’s demons, envied for their goodness.

        I pointed out to a surprisingly pious church friend that the North Dakota rioters were hypocrites, driving in to the battleground on gasoline-fuled cars, buying propane from the local tribal “chairman,” at his gas station, and what do you think she said? “Oh, well they need to.” So she doesn’t respect flyover country people’s fossil fuel needs or right to live, only holy-shitlibistanis like her.

        I don’t mean to damn these fools; but when they envy God’s servants, we can’t excuse that as naturalism /primitivism/ ecofascism. Their envy is worse than their barbaric phobia. I can prove they are jelly- they go on vacation to redneck/ yeoman country, and wish they belonged there.

        Autism is simple, and I can explain it. It’s male gossip. Aspies obsess over banal data, like train schedules, the way ignoble women gossip over who said what on the train, who was wearing what, and… I don’t even know what they gossip about. Both want to own the train, and use it for fun. They are both so entranced by the world, that they forget what life is about. Aspies want to turn the cosmos into a neural tube, where they digest it all with gnosticism. Gossips, including fags, want to ejaculate all over society, to mark it as territory. Aspies are pseudo-intellectual, mal-receptive cucks, often accepting bullying from mean gossip girls “for demonstrative purposes,” while fags are male cuck-hags, asking girls’ permission to do sodomy (and I’ve seen that happen, it’s like our 90’s First Family of swingers, the soap opera dynamics of hell).

        In other words, neither honor their parents, and neither want a human life. I don’t think autism is real, just like the gossip girl syndromes, narcissism , hysteria, “borderline” morbidity, and codependence are medicalizations of sin.

        In my high school, the resident aspie would go to the urinals with his pants all the way down, while acting “thoughtful” (perhaps part of his fetish). Other guys would be uncomfortable, but try to remain polite, recognizing that he’s “special,” but he would start yelling about his right to not be bullied. It wasn’t funny to watch, I assure you.

        Silicon Valley, with a renowned spergism epidemic, also has many catty shrews, and, I have noticed when visiting, women who suffer from vanity about having very expensive clothes (but they won’t fucking marry anyone who wants them, so what’s the point? The fat Muslim refugees matriarchs there look better (more modest, despite Islam’s ugliness), in their black hijabs!). It’s frivolity at its grossest, a parody of civilization. And when arrogant women try to “socialize” a sperg with smiles and hugs, it’s just like proud sluts rehabilitating a convict with their pussy- counterproductive.

        I’m quite surprised we don’t have far more rampaging sperg- teens. The “answer” to my reluctant question here is that they usually just suicide. And I wonder, is that good riddance? If God lets these degenerate, dehumanized, unrepentant, formerly beautiful creatures die, isn’t it a blessing to live in peace, without them here? I hope so, but really, we don’t need to know their fate. We have whole prayer books for the suicided, because only Jesus is the true man of sorrows. All the emos, both gossipy and spergy, are posers.

        The evil one intends for our sins to coalesce; it’s not an accident that male and female gossip ruin our industry/things and culture/people together. Actually, desecrating God’s image, present in all humans, is how demons express their religion of blasphemy. This is all biblical; I consider Samson a sperg, and perhaps Jonah too. Too bad I don’t know the Old Testament well though, I wish I could explain these flawed men better.

        The best places for thought are monasteries; but this is only a secret if you ignore them. Roissy is a gossip guy, and Vox Day is obsessed with soccer and flaming his ankle-biters. These guys are gamma, but I do admire that despite expatriating, Beale (Vox) honors his tax-protesting, imprisoned father. That’s the kind of American engineer-businessman I actually want running the country, not a real estate and golf course mogul (yes, Trump is shallow, because gold toilets are not beautiful art, rather a waste of gold). Vox’sdad also helped found and fund WND, the leading pre-Breitbart online newspaper and publishing house. Vox’s new books, releasing his archived columns from the 200s, are… as he almost admits, chronicles of a young prodigal. He says he was naive, believing in shibboleths, yet he makes money publishing his mistakes. I prefer nature documentaries to his gossiping over politics (gaymerGate is a spat of virtualists, different subcultures of losers who prefer vidya/ anime/ dolls/ “non-denominationalist” churchianity inspired by the cuck C.S. Lewis [married a divorcee late in life, claimed their shared orgasms were love, never forgave God for taking his dear pussy-friend away from him through thigh bone cancer… and then, a bad dad to his step-sons, who are only mentioned by real biographers, not the groupie cucks pretending this Anglican professor was a saint just because he shallowly respected Orthodoxy] to Jesus), and wish Vox would answer my emails. At least Vox taught me I don’t need to put up with dishonor at church. But he’s wrong that I can just quit and leave; they, cucks, need me as much as I need them.

        Moldbug is poignant, in confessing that he told his 5-y.o. daughter “Jesus is like Santa Claus for grown-ups.” No, St. Nicholas is not the God-Man, and nothing is stopping this cult-leading smartass from repenting of his cyber-prophet paganism. Naming his daughter Sybil is devious, and he let fatherhood’s challenges cuck him so far, but he’s remembered as a truth-seeker. I learned from him that America is fallen, yes. But I suspect he lives in San Francisco to be near St. John’s relics (like every other “born Christless” person, in a “I would be Christian if I were born Russian but I’m a Jew” way). Actually, one of the vicar bishops is a Jew, and he writes better than Moldbug.

        Hasn’t Jim said that the Book of Proverbs is good wisdom literature, published by the Israelite king’s officers? That’s good enough political education for me.

      • person says:

        Thank you for answering my questions.

        I disagree with the ascription of evil as a casual factor in human behaviour, but the other motives you list are plausible.

        You are probably right to suggest that autism is little understood, and I think that the term can refer to a variety of things, similarly to the term schizophrenia.

        Noted. Thank you.

    • peppermint says:

      (1) impact
      (2) they’re putting chemicals in the mac&cheese to turn the spergs gay
      (3) to find out more about the 20c, read Revilo Oliver’s book Ameroca’s Decline, and to find out about the early 20c, you could do worse than to read the culture war parts of The International Jew

    • Alf says:

      Re 2: Autism is real in the sense that many people have autistiform characteristics (robotic social skills, obsessive interests) and some have them quite clearly. Autism is fake in the sense that the psychiatric establishment use it as a weapon against men — the more logical you think, the greater the chance you are branded an evil autist. Very damaging for boys.

      It is not curable like a cold is curable. However social skills can be greatly be improved through life experience (up to a certain extent of course). The trick with obsessive interests is to make them work to your advantage (like trains? Go work with trains). Hence, weaponised autism.

      • peppermint says:

        Ok, you only know high functioning autists or autists who show up in discussion threads when they’re functional (fwiw, I’m autistic and never “go dark” the way most of my autistic friends do).

        Autism runs in families, but no single gene has been found, like fetal alcohol syndrome. The rate of autism is vastly increasing over time.

        They are putting chemicals in the water to turn the frogs gay.

        Is there more autism in the turd world where all the chemicals are being dumped? My parents always ate organic food. Could autism be caused by fat moms? I know autists whose moms aren’t fat now.

        (ps this is why I don’t have any White babbies being formed)

        • I was a bit nasty about it to you in another thread (check back to vaccines and mercury if you missed) but I do have a light Assburger diagnosis besides ADHD and some depression.

          My experience as a diagnosed Assburger is:

          – The cognitive issues in light autism can be overcame with life experience and learning. The politics of the light autist is usually extreme libertarianism. I was able to learn society is a thing.

          – Social skills are very easily learnable at e.g. Toastmasters, however

          – I don’t have poor social skills, thing is I openly dislike most people, I am not being rude out of a mistake, I honestly wish they fuck off and leave me alone. I hate the fashion-and-football superficial minds of the general public. I don’t want to network and don’t want to be liked by my coworkers whose depth of thinking is to me 5 year old level. My throat is rusty in the evening for not having opened my mouth all day. GOOD. I talk to those who deserve it. All I want from them from them is the respect I get from doing my job well.

          – I CAN roleplay a charming extroverted salesman if I want to. Normies are easy to fool. But better offer me a large prize for it, I dislike it so much that I won’t prostitute myself for a few thousands.

          – I CAN be alpha redpilled PUA if I want to but my interest in pussy whose owner I do not love is nearly zero. Yes low T beta cuck whatever. My decision.

          – I don’t have low empathy. I am nice inside the Dunbar number and outside of it seeing other people suffer makes me flinch. However I do not react to empathy with compassion, my reaction is “please go suffer somewhere else where it does not affect me”. Sociopath maybe, psychopath not.

          – Reacting to empathy with compassin is 99% signalling

          – The reason I hate liberalism is that I hate signalling is that I hate dishonesty is that I happen to have a fairly good information processing organ and I hate to feed garbage into it as it results in garbage output. I really wish every time people do not seriously, honestly want to be good they would yell loudly “I feel like being evil but I will conform to the social rule of being good now.” It would help my information processing so much.

          • >“please go suffer somewhere else where it does not affect me”

            I mean I actually do this for other people, it is not unreasonable. I hide pain they cannot help. Fuck getting sympathy. Why upset others unnecessarily.

          • peppermint says:

            If you don’t think the ends justify the means, you think the means justify the ends, and therefore don’t care, and therefore shouldn’t be involved.

            Good and evil are determined by the consequences for 14w.

            Anyone who would intentionally choose to harm 14w is a traitor and must be killed.

            “I want to harm 14w but am succumbing to social pressure to not do so” makes the person saying it suspect. No one would ever say that.

            • 14W isn’t even a thing they know to exist for most people and a weird new idea for many who do. Most right-wing people have a sub-racial ethnic identity for starters, loyal to a particular white nation and not a global brotherhood of whites, which is OBVIOUSLY coming from the same sources as liberal unversalism, merely stopping one step before, it does not want to you to have 7Bn brothers, but it wants you to have 1.3Bn brothers. Combine it with socialism, Globowhite NatSoc and what you have is obviously leftism that chose to stop one step before the final step.

              Or maybe it is a strawman but in that case either 14Wers need to communicate better or I need to invest more effort into figuring them out.

              • peppermint says:

                Shitlib: all contemporary hominids are of equal value

                Aryanist: the children of the Corded Ware Culture are the herring volk because they build civilizations

                Parochial nationalist: England #1 lol lets go fuck those Germans over

        • Don’t you find highly functioning autism is a kind of a jewish thing? Not trolling. But the typical sperging about extreme Rothbardian libertarianism, all logical but just not getting how people function that is so obviously a No. 1 autism sign and so obviously jewish majority who is doing it…

          • peppermint says:

            Many of the autists I know are part-Jew mixed breeds, but many, including me, are not. Attributing political ideas to autism is pure rhetoric. Libertarianism was a Jew conspiracy pushed starting in the 70s to displace nationalism amongst Whites, while obviously Boomer liberalism was part transcendentalism/secular humanism and part Jew conspiracy.

            • > Attributing political ideas to autism is pure rhetoric.

              Nope, when I wasl like 16, all logic and no life experience and no gut level grokking of how humans work, I loved it because it seemed to be based on pure thinking, which I was good at, as opposed to actual data and experience, which I was bad at getting.

            • Wait. As above I don’t think extreme libertarianism is a conspiracy but something well suited to the all thinking but experience autist mind, but something occured to me.

              I think much of what is generally considered autism is not directly coming from the core reason but a secondary reason, autism makes you have less social experience and less social experience has consequences of sucking at getting how other people tick.

              But… it is possible that people from a tightly knit ethnic community get less autistic in the sense that social interaction is forced on them and they learn to figure out people anyhow.

              People with an anomic, atomistic, individualistic background, social life is not forced on them by parents, aren’t forced to learn to figure things out.

              Beyond libertarianism another example is New Atheism. It is taking theism too literally and not having experience in most people treating religion as nothing but social life really.

              Orthojews probably not, but actually assimilated jews may suffer from a higher than normal level of “rootless cosmopolitanism” which could cause these autistic stuff.

              Other nonjew backgrounds can also cause this.

              This worths a thought. Jim? What do you think?

              • peppermint says:

                Atheism+, aka secular humanism, is the logical conclusion of utilitarianism. JS Mill had oneitis butbthat doesn’t imply he had autism.

              • Ryan C says:


                My libertarianism is humility based. It is also informed by the problem of social cost, transaction costs, etc.

                Basically wu wei before I read about it.

                Although if you watch Get Me Roger Stone, as to whether extreme libertarianism is a conspiracy, well. Roger Stone managed to prevent the Reform Party from being a spoiler. It makes me question Gary Johnson’s actions in the last election, as well as Rand Paul’s.

        • Alf says:

          I have a little experience with special needs autists.

          My pet theory is that autism is too much ‘masculine problem solving genes.’ A bit helps you with finding a niche in reality, too much makes you weird. But I dunno, Im no expert.

          • peppermint says:

            Masculine problem solving doesn’t include tantrums.

          • peppermint says:

            This whole conversation is like discussing GRIDS under the assumption that all lives are of equal value especially the beautiful contributions to society of walking petri dishes for antibiotic resistance evolution and reservoirs for extreme viral preservation.

            What would happen if the GRIDS virus evolved to be spread through a faggot spitting in your latte? Instead of worrying about that, the government worries about whether faggots harboring the virus feel bad about it being illegal to give others an anally injected death sentence.

            All people with that virus must be executed and their corpses burned. The failure to do so is proof that university scientists can’t be trusted with public health.

            With all the anti-retrovirals that allow GRIDS fags to pretend to be normal, the problem can be and thus is ignored.

            Similarly, because top sperglords and the self-diagnosed are the ones you talk to, you don’t know how non-functional spergs usually are.

            By the way, when Lothrop Stoddard and Revilo Oliver mention what may today be called the eternal sperglord, they call him a mattoid and dismiss him as irrelevant in number and best kept away from serious work. Today autism is vastly more prevalent and this is a real public health crisis, that while not as serious as GRIDS, lacks a simple solution for want of an explanation.

            • Alf says:

              I’m aware of this level of sperg –

              Otherwise, point taken.

              • peppermint says:

                Ahahahaha great vid. The mom deserves it for trying to pray it away and the church is corrupted from its mission of unconditional love if it can’t correct her. Her daughter understands. From the mouths of babes.

                Also obviously that guy belongs on the funny farm employing some qt22/7 handlers. The people in between, who seem pretty normal until they break down randomly and can’t do anything, and also can’t handle their own affairs the way normal people do through networking with their peers and talking to institutions on the phone, are the real problem, and you probably won’t know about them unless you’re looking right at them.

        • Turtle says:

          My godbrother’s older half-brother was moderately autistic, because his dad abandoned them, and he was a sad toddler. Now he’s almost normal, only lacking guidance and humility. The difference is that their mom’s second husband is totally devoted to them, even though that makes him a cuck. So, I think your problem is with your dad treating you coldly, or, frankly, not doing due benevolence with your mom, making you doubt you rconception and existence’s legitimacy, not the material biology of your parents’ bodies.

          Is “going dark” an altered state, like a seizure?

      • Do they? My impression of Dutch shrinks is good, they made the DIVA test for adult ADHD. My, Austrian psych only started to suspect I may have Assburger when I said “OK medicine I will take, I get how drugs change the brain but why do you offer me therapy, therapy is talk, and how could mere talk change my brain?” Apparently normies take talk way more seriously. I don’t think it was suppressing my masculinity.

        • Alf says:

          Dutch adult psychiatrists are professional and generally quite capable. But the poz man, the poz just keeps creeping… Some bad experiences with child psychiatry especially freaked me out.

          • peppermint says:

            Consider: is psychiatry wasn’t garbage, how could it have ended up recommending the wrong hormones for gender dysphoria?

            • Consider: psychiatry is not one indivisible thing but consists of different parts made by different people, some good, some bad.

              The issue is I find it obvious. Typically low-IQ ethnic masses have any homogenity. Nearly everything smart fragments.

              This also why I don’t believe in Anglos or Jews as a homogenous group. Too smart. I am willing to believe in Bantus being a homogenous group. Not smart enough.

              All right, there is something else having homogenity: cults. Leftism is a cult. Is psychiatry a cult? No, there are enough internal debates and sufficiently large numbers of actually working meds.

              Psychiatry seems to be a large thing, some of it is purely like social psychology, leftist cultish crap and some if it is almost like being a blue collar contractor, giving meds to fix complaints, it is kept sane by customers.

              I suspect there are currently no right hormones for fixing gender dysphoria so it got taken over by leftism.

              • peppermint says:

                …and, because there is no known right way, children need to be mutilated.

                Psychiatry succumbed to the corruption of the times because, like climate science, it has no real body of knowledge but does have arrogant practitioners.

                • Turtle says:

                  Quietly, I am sure some doctors do give the right hormones. But they don’t want to start a fight with evil creeps, so they don’t issue press releases about their success stories. Why would they be loud before they have military support to win? Anyway, St. Naum is the patron of psychiatrists, and St. Nicholas, the archbishop and santa claus guy, of pharmacists. When St. John the fool-for-Christ visited mental hospitals with his icon of St. Naum, starting in Serbia, they worked miracles together. I wonder where it is, and am sad my church totally ignores St. Naum. I need to do something about that.

            • Turtle says:

              Consider anti-psychiatry, as in the Hungarian Jew SZASZ. He’s a hero to many.

              My childhood 22nd (maybe the 21st?)-chromosomal dysphoria, as I jokingly pretend it is just genetic, not really about socio-emotional “gender,” but really sex delusion, was caused by my parents wanting me to be a girl, and telling me this. It’s just feminism, to be ungrateful for sons God creates. I somehow forgave them, which is technically a miracle, but still don’t trust women who like me; can’t they tell I’m confused? No, they’re too desperate for my attention, while I want to redo boyhood without the disgusting lies and shit like 9/11. Sad, meaning I should man up, but I do hope they actually love me. Maybe my elderly neighbor, who helped raise me and says she’ll help me find a wife, actually can. That would be nice, if only to not run away to a “monastery” full of celibate queers 😉 .

        • Turtle says:

          Talk therapy is a cult of false love. These chatterboxes believe their super-conversation skilz will “rub off,” and by role modeling affability, they will teach the “client” to make, for example, properly feminist-macho jokes like “that’s what she said,” (who cares what the She-goddess said after sex? ) not “Ass Burger.”

          Seriously, our grade’s favorite aspie clasmate, a mechanical genius, loved to stretch out the syllables of ASS BURGER. Is that because he’s a perv? No,it’s because he’s hiding pathetic shame with shallow humor, trying to make light of his limitations. At least he was adopted out of the orphanage where he was first raised; again, this is a “failure to thrive,” which means failure to know God’s love in a whole home. He’s brave, and never got into trouble; some autists are more innocent than others.

      • Turtle says:

        > It is not curable like a cold is curable.

        Now that’s despair and ignorant too. Miracles do happen!

        Koanic, who is on and whose blog,, is on, comments here sometimes, vapidly but boldly, and claims to have lowered his Autism Quotient. I believe him, based on his old meditation videos, and I have also seen a video of a kid who was cured of autism caused by heavy metal poisoning. That was a purely medical case, with no “psychiatry.” One of my relatives was spergy as a teen, but is now a normal family man. My church has a mostly recovered autist, who went from being pitied and talking to himself about his bizarre fantasies, to being mostly sociable, though angry and vidya-addicted. I have no memory of how that happened, except that he was able to love his relatives, who respected him (unlike the condescending “Autism Speaks” approach), giving him a compelling reason to feel his emotions (and the secret of *chosen* autism is that gnostics believe emotion is sin, or rather, a defect of dumbfucks who don’t even do Final Fantasy magic).

        Autism can also be suddenly caused, like physical paralysis, by a cowardly choice to shut down one’s soul (often due to a refusal to suffer humbly and forgive one’s enemies). God gives us control over our lives more than we realize or are brave enough to accept. Until we repent, we live with our mistakes, even if we cripple ourselves. Really, y’all underestimate how much self-harm sinners do, and then present as an “accident” or martyrdom.

        Autism is, nefariously, encouraged by the world’s worst parents, to get attention and special funding. My point here is that only sin causes destruction and suffering, not cosmic nature or humanity itself.

        Don’t worry about the sorcerers called psychiatrists; they don’t understand the brain any more than they love their patients. My church’s psychiatrist admits this whole autism trend/meme is biologizing the human condition (“it’s genetic, you were born anti-social”); in the 80’s, these people were “schizoid.”

        Next, perhaps we will just call them sorcerers (as in shinto-derived anime, living in the “world of warcraft” massively online multi-pagan idolatry game, etc.). To be human is to be the bodiless angels’ younger sibling. Only saints are human, dogmatically, while prodigal humans are corrupted beings.

        I’m writing too much because of caffeine. but, that’s… tolerable. Please excuse my ranting.

        • peppermint says:

          Wow, that’s the most retarded thing I’ve ever read about this modern public health crisis. You christcucks seem to have godlike skill at missing the point but suggesting something reasonable anyway.

          Fine. Call it a sin and send sperglords and spergladies to monasteries and convents to live lives of contemplation, while reproaching their parents for whatever level of responsibility they have in it.

          Now we don’t need an explanation of what causes it; to be sure, we were never going to get one from the sorcerers that call themselves psychologists.

  2. Tealdear says:

    “The most recent edition of BP’s widely scrutinized Energy Outlook has global demand for crude maxing out in 2½ decades, give or take a year. That projection casts a shadow over one of the world’s largest industries, which until recently was far more concerned with boosting supply.”
    “For Middle East nations that sit on huge hydrocarbon reserves, peak demand is more of an existential threat.”

  3. Turtle says:

    We’re fine, going by the Holy American Emperor’s pre-verbal/ quick interactions with shit-testing young ladies:
    (I mean the following 10 second clip, but the earlier part is inspiring too)

    Jim, it’s our blessed Made in America Week, and you’re complaining about tech stagnation? That’s your opinion, but I disagree, with some good news:

    Trump introduces s new Valor glass for the vials used to store injected drugs:

    When Trump applies ~1,000 lbs of force to the new glass vial, and it doesn’t break, that’s amazing (more than 10x stronger than weaker glass).

    The deal is $4 billion, only 4,000 jobs. Huge investment, minimal labor. Big Pharma, big corporate, everyone who can hire is reluctant to hire anyone, because each employee is a liability, from health insurance mandates to lawsuits and incompetence. But, they eagerly hired illegals for what feels like a long time (my whole lifetime, for sure).

    The businessmen seem to be terrified of regulation, which fear was holding them back from doing manufacturing in America, and now they are thrilled that Trump is protecting them from robbery. I am happy for them.

    I believe we have limits on new tech in the following upstream areas:


    trust/cooperation/respect of property (not stealing the IP/wealth),

    and vision/dreaming up new things to do, creatively and sanely.

    These are the American problems I see, because

    so many workers are incompetent/ stupid,

    so much corruption and cheating occurs (as measured by the divorce rate),

    and so much boredom (as evaluated by what’s popular on TV, Netflix, the radio, YouTube, etc.).

    I don’t know about other countries.

    • jim says:

      Suddenly, you no longer get status by appointing a childless old woman CEO. Instead, you get status by packaging medicine in glass that is much stronger.

      If Trump is able to get and keep power, this is likely to have the same effect on technology as when Charles the Second made the Royal Society Royal.

  4. Glenfilthie says:


    Oil’s a funny critter, Jim. Ya gotta remember you have OPEC and other shit heels manipulating the market. Up here in Alberta we couldn’t build gas and oil plants fast enough for the last decade – and now we’ve gone bust. If the rag heads close the valve – we’ll be going great guns up here again. I don’t see that going anywhere soon. We are getting a double whammy from morons like Neil Young telling the marketplace that our tar sands oil is ‘dirty’ and an economic disaster on par with fracking.

    Also, demand for oil is growing exponentially. Nothing can keep growing forever, at some point we have to run out. I dunno what the answer is. But I do know I am not giving one red cent to fucks like Al Gore, David Suzuki or Neil Young. Their environmentalism is nothing more than publicity stunting and a money grab.

  5. viking says:

    This is a very interesting and recent talk in a fast changing field about not only oil but its geopolitical implications. as well as the geopolitical implications of a lot of related topics like food military economics.Its worth watching to the end gets better as it goes along

    • viking says:

      he characterizes it as ultimately a trump talk though you come to understand he means the inevitability of an america first doctrine. Which while you can tell hes not keen on, his entire graphically enhanced presentation argues in favor of.

    • peppermint says:

      geopolitical implication of x and x studies in general are sinecures for professors, the default is not to trust anyone who starts talking about that kind of thing

      • viking says:

        Oh this guys a spook well former spook now nat sec advisor so dont trust him but for different reasons

  6. Anonymous says:

    Get your head out of the sand. Anthropocene is here nazibros – in 20 years plus or minus oil will be considered the anathema it should be considered today.

    Or maybe it won’t, and humanity dies out. Good answer to the Fermi paradox. Civilizations and species can only be expected to live so long.

    • jim says:

      You lot have been predicting resource exhaustion, global warming, and such like for a hundred years. Al Gore told us, while flying around the world in his private jet, that New York City would be under water by now due to the oceans rising.

      • Anonymous says:

        Jim, stop lying and making shit up. Theee things happen on a slow time scale – just because you don’t see it with your own eyes from one year to the next does NOT mean it isn’t happening. Your comments about the claims of SCIENTISTS who actually understand and are actively researching this shit is total bullshit hyperbole, and I think you know it.

        Your grand kids and great grand kids will be the ones to suffer, so it doesn’t matter it’s just a “Chinese hoax” right ? Lol

        • Anonymous says:

          And no I’m not claiming (rofl) that Al fuckijg Gore is a scientist.
          However, at least he listens and defers to the reality of the situation.

        • jim says:

          The world has been warmer before, and colder before. It will be warmer again, and colder again. Right now it is indeed getting warmer. Supposing current trends continue for a hundred years, suppose the trend from 1997 to 2017 continues for a hundred years, then in a hundred years time no one will be able to notice the difference, except by careful measurements, for the difference will be slight compared to day to day and year to year difference.

          From 1997 to 2017, the world warmed some 0.2 degrees. In the highly unlikely event that this continues for a hundred years, the world will warm one degree. Oh, the horror.

          Similarly for melting icecaps, rising oceans. The icecaps, North and South will not be noticeably changed, the oceans will have risen a whopping one foot, a whopping thirty tree centimeters.

          What happens is that one year the Northern Ice cap melts, and Global Warmers say “doom!”. The next year the Northern ice cap is back to normal, but a gigantic iceberg breaks off antarctica, and Global Warmers say “doom!” The next year there is a flood in California, or a drought, and Global Warmers say “doom”, but the longer the time scale on which you look at things, the less change there is.

          Look at the change over twenty years or fifty years. Nothing much, and what change there is looks suspiciously random.

          Supposing that there is a trend, and it is hard to tell whether there is a long term warming trend, or it is just random climate change, but if there is a long term warming trend, it is small, and the longer the period over which we observe that supposed trend, the smaller it is.

          A hundred years ago, some years boats could sail through the North West passage, but most years they could not. Today, some years they can, some years they cannot. Hard to say if the proportion of years where they can has increased. Probably it has increased, but not so much that the North West passage is a workable trade route, or likely to become a workable trade route in a hundred years.

          A hundred years ago the North West Passage was too damned cold, and today it is too damned cold. If it has warmed at all, which is far from clear, it has only warmed a degree or so. If it warms another degree or so in the next hundred years, it will still be too damned cold.

          • Anonymous says:

            The industrial revolution did not start in 1997, lol. You are wrong. You’ve made a hobby of pontificating on things about which you are badly confused. I will not waste my time refuting claims based on the notoriously retarded fundameltist Roy Spencer, or the rest of your rambling nonsense. Read some actual science on the subject – it’s conclusive. Denying anthropic climate change is like denying evolution (which you probably do deny, finding the idea that your great-great-(5 x 10^6 more greats, give or take)-grandmother was a monkey distasteful). You cannot extract what will happen in the next 100 years as a direct linear curve based on the last hundred years – you know this, surely ?

            So full of yourself and SO wrong. Jim, a victim of his own (unwarranted) hubris.

          • pdimov says:

            “Right now it is indeed getting warmer.”

            Not anymore.

    • peppermint says:

      How the fuck is that supposed to happen? Is all the carbon going to be baked out of carbonate rocks and then the atmosphere gets thicc enough for the adiabatic lapse rate to set the surface temperatute to boil all water?

      • Anonymous says:

        It doesn’t a Venus runaway effect to fuck mankind, obviously!

        Although, earth is slated for one of those eventually anyway (a billion years or so)

  7. jay says:

    The issue is energy return on investment and the literal finitude of fossil fuels. There will be fossil fuel decline and if there isn’t sufficient energy dense resources to replace that a long slow step by step decline will take place.

    I recommend John Michael Greer’s work “the long decline”. It will begin in the peripheries and gradually work its way up the industrial civilization chain.

    • peppermint says:

      Fossil fuels are not practically finite at present, but if you want to replace them wih cheaper nuclear power so we can afford better mars colonies for our White babies, you must murder all professors (not some, mudering some would do them a favor by relieving their population pressure).

  8. bob sykes says:

    “Reserves” refers to proven oil deposits that can be quickly developed with existing technology. It is a technical economic term and has nothing to do with total deposits. Reserves are carried on the companies books as an asset.

    Oil companies (and other mining companies) generally only bother to get leases for oil deposits that they intend to develop soon to continue immediate production. Exploration is a longer term project that might or might not result in the application for a lease to develop.

    • Anonymous Fake says:

      Reserves are a tiny fraction of “oil in place”, but in cases like the Arab Spring only a fraction of reserves were produced before those countries were compromised. The long tail end of oil production doesn’t have to happen. It’s just as likely to end in a sudden fall when the system is stressed to a critical point.

      There will always be 50 years left of oil reserves until the wells all run dry. It’s only a tax accounting convention.

  9. Anonymous Fake says:

    Global oil production per capita is shockingly stable since for 40+ years now, but people globally certainly want a lot more oil. Fracking isn’t remotely as important as horizontal drilling by the way, which is a result of very cheap Chinese steel making those long laterals viable. The technology hasn’t really changed much at all.

    Peak oil on a national scale was damned accurate for Syria, Yemen, and Egypt. It predicted much and probably most of the refugee crisis. The doomers who weren’t loony environmentalists deserve more credit.

    I suspect much of America’s oil production isn’t economical at all, but serves to put pressure on Russia. Oil companies aren’t seeing their stock prices go up like fluffy liberal tech companies.

    • viking says:

      US shale production costs are as of last january $37 barrel making us the second cheapest producer, and a profitable exporter. Thats cheaper than opec as a whole, but with saudi alone barely ahead of us, we expect by 2019 to be below $25 a barrel even with no new technology. Oh yeah we are sticking it to russsia and china and the mid east and those euros who dont fall in line but thats just the cherry

      • peppermint says:

        Oil is cheap, gasoline is expensive, why? Taxes to pay for the costs of having muds. Retirement for Boomers will be to dig their own graves and be shot into them.

        • viking says:

          well since boomers bult this fucking world and we can still kill you tikes pay the danegeld, its hardly the real problem, niggers and jews are the real problem

          But infrastructure has a lot to do with gas prices theres a bottle neck in refining but its going to be fixed now we are the big producer and isolating

          • peppermint says:

            Boomers took the entire world, with the atom bomb and men walking in the moon, nuclear power and transistors, and video calling in Germany, and threw it all away, burning what they couldn’t themselves eat, and leaving few children. Boomers are the savages that destroyed the White world before importing niggers to whom to outsource the physical destruction.

            Social security going away is non-negotiable. You have children, and probably retirement money that hopefully is invested in things that aren’t going away, so you personally will be okay. That boomer faggot at the hackspace worshipping the nigger? He’s getting retired straight into the ground. His precious mind wasn’t thoughtful enough.

          • viking says:

            yeah so lenders took a hit on initial R and D they were to enthusiastic too soon and got burnt then things changed and now costs are $37 a barrel and dropping like a rock as that R and D is now coming on line and being integrated in novel ways expect $24 dollar a barrel soon. I bought a house in Brooklyn in 2010 for 500k its worth 2.5M now. I promise you I could car less what the old owners feel it may or may not be worth.

          • Turtle says:

            > > …bottle neck in refining but its going to be fixed now…

            I wish I could be a petrochemical engineer; I’m sorry I’m not good at
            math 🙁 . At least I can be confident other men have the talent required for this invention. Do you think the inventors will be Texan, Canadian, or from where else?

            I knew an engineer who worked in refineries, and he was a very happy man. I don’t know why, but it can be very satisfying work.

      • Anonymous Fake says:

        The real cost of shale is at least 80 bucks. There were a lot of bankruptcies that wrote off the heavy capital costs, leaving behind modest operating costs. Shale only took off under Obama of all people because it was valuable in geopolitics in preventing Russia from interfering in his Arab Spring project. It didn’t go anywhere under Bush.

        I think the “Jews” have been hawking American oil this entire time, not artificially holding it back.

        • jim says:

          The real cost of shale is at least 80 bucks

          Yet more unconventional oil is being developed at considerably less than eighty bucks.

          Shale took off despite Obama’s vigorous resistance and numerous executive orders to obstruct it.

          • Turtle says:

            > > Shale took off despite Obama’s vigorous resistance and numerous executive orders to obstruct it.


    • peppermint says:

      Cheap Chinese steel? Why is steel cheap to produce in China? Answer is Jew, answer is always Jew. Destroy Jew, drive mud from lands, cheap domestic production.

  10. Alrenous says:

    Leftist environmentalism is based on amazing hubris. “We a planet now.” About that…

  11. Dave says:

    I agree with Jim that the Industrial Revolution will run out of people before it runs out of resources, on account of dysgenic fertility, a problem that no civilization has yet solved.

    Look at a Koppen climate map. In a few centuries, the C and warmer D zones will be inhabited by Amish farmers, the B zones by Muslim goat-herders, and the A zones by niggers running naked through the jungle poking each other with pointy sticks.

  12. viking says:

    Fracking not stoping,all oil companies report 30 year supply because thats all they have to no one knows best guess is 100. next year usa alone will be a net exporter this year we are when combined with canada alone last year north america became net exporter. I think latest cost is about 30 we expect it doewn to 23 iin a couple years. w have been the swing producers couple years now this mean we can set the price and we are setting it low. this is going to destroy russia china and mid east europes going to crash from bankiing.
    we are fine as long as we wake up and expel niggers and jews well same thing but whatever

  13. guest says:

    I was just watching Dan Peña on the Joe Rogan podcast, who said:

    “Do you know why Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, will go public?

    They’re selling 2% of the company, not because they need money, they have all the money in the world, it’s because when you go public, you gotta do a reserve report, the reserve report is going show how many barrels they have, proved producing, unproved. And we’ve been guesstimating for years that Aramcos got a couple billion barrels, maybe 3, 4 billion barrels, and that report is going to show that they have trillions!”

    They want to destroy fracking once and for all.

    • Steve Johnson says:

      Taking no position on the truth of this but what exactly would be the consequences of them lying about their reserves? A fine? Would they get a strongly worded letter from the SEC? Would it be worse than the consequences of flying hijacked jets into office buildings?

  14. Cavalier says:

    I wouldn’t want to live anywhere near any fracking.

    • jim says:

      No one has ever actually observed any adverse environmental impacts of fracking with their own two eyes, only with the magical super powerful eyes of official science, the magical visions of holy priests who can see what mere mortals cannot.

    • Grampy_bone says:

      That town where they made the Matt Damon movie about lighting their water on fire? That always happened there, even before fracking.

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