The end of gold

Interest rates indicate people not bracing for inflation, normality bias. Bitcoin indicates people bracing for inflation. Land and property prices indicate people bracing for inflation.

You did not look at rents – current rents, what people pay in rent, is very sticky, but apartments for rent, what people have to pay when they move, is a spot price and it is going up fast, though this is complicated by people fleeing blue areas, so it depends on what sample you look at. In a blue area, the rent remains unchanged, but you find wild plains apes wandering about, and the nice buildings you remember turning into ruins, so you are paying the same rent for a place that a few years back you would not have rented at all except for a very low rent, which is inflation in same way a smaller burger for the same price is inflation.

What we are seeing is a massive discrepancy between price of investments within the bubble, which are strongly affected by normality bias, prices of investments outside the bubble, which indicate some serious money is outside the bubble, list prices, which are sticky and affected by normality bias, and spot prices, which jump around because they are directly and immediately impacted by reality.

If you want to know about reality, you don’t look at indicators of what people are thinking about reality. Investments indicate what people are thinking about reality, so are always a lagging indicator. You look at what is happening to people who have to deal with actual reality. That is shortages, spot prices and scalper prices. Which indicate about twenty percent inflation since Biden was elected by the official media, by the priesthood, and installed by the deep state.

This is a very high seignorage tax. After a while, people will adapt their behavior to reduce the amount of seignorage tax that they pay, and the value of money in circulation goes down. Which means the seignorage tax becomes unsustainable, and has to be reduced, or you get hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is the government persisting in trying to continue funding its activities through seignorage, as people increasing avoid the seignorage tax, so that the tax bears ever more harshly on the ever fewer people who fail to adapt their behavior – the middle class that Wiemar ruined.

This takes a while. If people are not used to high levels of inflation, it is going to take many years to adapt their behavior. I urge people to start adapting their behavior right now for a world in which everything is money except money. Stockpiles of durable goods are better than cash in the bank. (I wish cement was a durable good, but it goes off fast.)

Because the seignorage tax is a hidden tax, the government can get away with taxing beyond the Laffer limit for longer than with most taxes. Failure to adapt winds up hurting a lot of normies, the last people to adapt, which is why so many normies voted for the Nazis in Weimar Germany. Notice how many normies have been badly burned by the debasement of academic degrees. A lot more are going to be burned by inflation. The reaction against the Weimar inflation only really began after it ended, after the government finally backed off from the Laffer limit, because relying on seignorage just was not working any more.

The Soros shilling is a preparation for a possible replay of Weimar. This time they intend to make sure that the next Hitler does what they intended the previous Hitler to do, play out the standard play act in the expulsion of the Jews.