The radicalism of the new regime.

November 6th, 2021

Namefag Yarvin predicts fifty years of the Brezhnevian stagnation.

I predicted that that revolutionary change would ensue as fast as Russia, where the Kadets were in power and then out of power so fast it gave them whiplash. I predicted that the Republicans would never win another election in America, and they just won some, falsifying my prediction.

But …

This is free money being handed out to friends of the federal reserve.

We are not currently on the course the Russian revolution took. The American deep staters are not the Russian deep staters and the Democrats are not the Kadets, to my surprise and contrary to my predictions. We are however on the course the French Revolution took, and the Democrats may well be the Girondists. The Girondists lasted a lot longer than the Kadets – but they went to the guillotine soon enough.

Naturally the politicians want to hand out a whole lot more free money. This is the path the French Revolution walked, for with with the removal of the King, power fell into far too many hands. Far too many people could stick their hands into the till.

The spending part of the “Build it back better” bill will spend about four trillion a year, about 20% of M2 per year.

The taxes that are supposed to pay for this are a soak to the rich package similar to disastrous soak the rich packages that have been tried over and over during the last sixty years in country after country.

There are plenty of unproductive rich whom you would really rather not have around, for example the friends of the federal reserve, and most of the FIRE economy, the blue state economy composed of Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Education. The dissolution of the monasteries was a really great and highly successful soak the rich program, and we urgently need another along the same lines, but, needless to say, this program is going after the productive rich, primarily Musk and people like Musk, rather than unproductive and useless rich, and the record of similar programs over the past sixty years is that they result in a major drop in revenue, so the taxes that are supposed to pay for this, rather than raising money, will probably,set us back another trillion or two. They are based on hatred and envy, not rational economic calculation.

Even on static analysis, ignoring the fact that you always get more of what you subsidize and less of what you tax, they don’t pay for the program, but on static analysis, they will raise about two trillion a year for a four trillion program, meaning that if the fed puts its friends on short rations, and static analysis was correct, you would only have the money supply increasing at about ten percent a year. Which is still considerably more than siegnorage will bear. But if, as is more likely, they lose money rather than raising money, and if, as is likely, the fed is unable to put its friends on short rations, then the money supply will grow at about forty five percent a year, which is roughly similar to what happened following the French Revolution.

What happens when a government tries to rely on seignorage, on printing money, more than seignorage will bear?

Well at first people think the shortages and scalper prices are a temporary abnormality, and they horde money, intending to buy stuff when prices and supply returns to normal. After a while inflationary expectations set in, they realize prices are never going to return to “normal”, and they start treating money as radioactive. As soon as they get some money, they immediately convert it into something real, for example brandname goods in sealed boxes that they can sell on ebay, or something that is not being rapidly debased, such as bitcoin. And when this happens, the government can no longer benefit by debasing the stock of money, because the real value of the stock of money collapses, and there is not much left to debase. Then you get hyperinflation.

Will we get hyperinflation? Maybe not, but if we don’t, it will be because power that is at present dispersed into far too many hands is grabbed by a single hand. Which single hand will likely have power grabbed from it in due course by another single hand.

All FIPS compliant cryptographic libraries are backdoored and in the pocket of our enemies

November 2nd, 2021

As are many non FIPS compliant cryptographic libraries. We know from the Snowden leaks that the NSA has spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to make sure that cryptographic implementations have backdoors supplied for the NSA.

A good way to make money is to construct a cryptographic library, and, if it gets to be widely used, a mysterious and secretive generous benefactor will show up.

To resolve the dragnet problem for passwords, since I cannot help using backdoored software, what I do is have a long master password, from which I generate for each account a ninety six bit random gibberish password.

Any one cryptographic algorithm is usually fine by itself – nothing is wrong with AES256 and SHA256, though there is something very wrong with AES128 as usually used. Used correctly, AES128 is fine, but it never is used correctly.

But any one cryptographic algorithm is useless by itself. To do anything useful, has to be integrated with several other algorithms, an api provided to access and use that integration, and then another library has to use the cryptographic library through that API. And that integration, api, and libraries using libraries, is where the mischief usually is.

Typically you have one flaw, which is obscure, complicated, relatively harmless by itself, and another flaw in something totally unrelated, which is also obscure, complicated, and relatively harmless by itself. You put all these flaws together, with industrial scale precomputation and industrial scale collection of hashes of secrets, and all the encryption falls apart. The Snowden slides would seem to suggest that the NSA has broken the SSL TLS algorithms used in most vpns.

Every major state spy agency, and several private agencies, attempt to collect every face that has ever appeared on the internet, every email address, every username, and every password, and link them together.

The mechanism that the fips compliant libraries, or rather the software that uses them, provide to collect the passwords, and to link them with usernames and email addresses is that they reveal the hashes of email addresses, passwords, and usernames to passive listeners. And the agency collections hundreds of millions of such hashes.

If you have one hash, and you want to try ten billion things to see if one of them gives the correct hash, takes a while. If you have a million hashes, and you want to try ten billion things to see which ones match one of your hashes, takes about the same amount of time. So this form of leakage is primarily useful to those that collect the leaks on an industrial scale. The backdoors are provided to be convenient to those that seek to sweep up all data, not convenient to those who want to eavesdrop a particular conversation.

Let us suppose you want to have free wifi wherever you go.

It used to be that whenever someone signed on with his wifi network, the unsalted hash of his password was transmitted in the clear. So every time someone goes in and out of range of his wifi network, his cell phone transmits the unsalted hash. (Actually it is more complicated than that, I oversimplify, but the end effect is that a passive listener gets the hash of the password.)

This was inconvenient for the agencies, since people do not sign into their wifi all that often, so the Wifi protocol was modified on some slender excuse to continually retransmit the hash all the time, regardless of whether anyone needs it, wants it, or can use it.

So, you have a background process on your laptop collecting these hashes, and once a week or so, you let a process run overnight that tries a hundred billion passwords against a every network you have been in range of. Most of the passwords will be revealed. And now your laptop can sign into a free wifi network wherever you are. Handy.

Which gets interesting if it is the network of a big corporation, because you are now inside their firewall, rinse and repeat similar tricks to get their administrative passwords. Then hold their data for ransom.

If you comment on a WordPress blog, the standard worpress avatar plugins give you an avatar. And somehow, for some entirely inexplicable reason, the blog sends the avatar image, the username, and a hash of the user email address to a central repository. Supposedly the WordPress plugin avatar privacy does not do this, but I was recently informed that it does the equivalent in a more roundabout way, which I have now fixed.

This post was inspired by Let’s talk about PAKE, a post on how to do login by password correctly – so that the server does not know, and cannot learn, the password. Using the opaque zero knowledge protocol, the server never knows the password or the hash of the password, and the client never knows the per user salt, or per user key stored on the server, no hashes of interesting information are exchanged. If the server is evil, or the bad guys seize the server, everything is still encrypted and they have to run, not a hundred million trial passwords against all users, but a hundred million passwords against each user. And user can make the process of trying a password far more costly and slow than just generating a hash. Opaque zero knowledge is designed to be as unfriendly as possible to big organizations harvesting data on an industrial scale. The essential design principle of this password protocol is that breaking a hundred million passwords by password guessing should be a hundred million times as costly as breaking one password by password guessing. So this post is not about the opaque password protocol. It is about why it is needed.

The Jab

October 31st, 2021

I was expecting a significant rise in the excess death rate among young people.

If it is happening, it is less impressive than I was expecting. The claim that the jab is saving lives is not obviously and outrageously stupid. It is not obviously true either.

What it is, however, doing, is sodomizing people’s immune systems.

It has long been known that the jab does not prevent you from getting China flu, nor spreading it. What it is claimed to do is prevent you from getting really ill as a result. But to verify this claim we would need doctors and patients to not know if the patient had been jabbed, since it is obvious that in practice the purebloods get treated by the medical industry in a way completely different to the way they treat the jabbed, radically different.

Supposedly the vaccine studies had double blind studies, neither patient nor doctor knew who had the vaccination, but actually, they lied. They just went through the motions of science, were not actually interested in the answers.

Maybe it does reduce the severity of symptoms – it seems likely that it should. It is plausible that it does, we just don’t have data. We just don’t have enough trust and trustworthiness left for scientific research to be conducted when there is money on the table.

But, I hear you ask, “what is this stuff about sodomizing the immune systems of the jabbed?”

Well, get this British National health service data, before it gets “corrected” Vaccine surveillance report week 42, page 13

Covid 19 rate per one hundred thousand among persons ages forty to forty nine vaccinated with two doses, 1731
Covid 19 rate per one hundred thousand among persons aged forty to forty nine not vaccinated, 773

What has been happening is that the rate of Covid infection among the jabbed has been rising steadily and rapidly, and now substantially exceeds that of the purebloods.

This is consistent with the widespread circumstantial evidence that the jab buggers your immune system as well as your blood clotting system.

I was seeing data that shows the jabbed are less likely to spread the disease, then data that they are at least as likely to spread the disease, and now data that they are far more likely to spread the disease. Looks like any immunity wears off fast, while impaired immune function is lasting.

Worse, if it is indeed the case, and it likely is, that the jab reduces the severity of the symptoms, we have a Marek’s disease problem. The jabbed are breeding the virus for greater lethality. The jabbed are dangerous to the purebloods.

Bitcoin time

October 23rd, 2021

I have been diversifying from Bitcoin to ADA, because I was profoundly unhappy with Bitcoins scalability, and with its implementation of the lightning network, and I recommended that other people do so.

This turned out to be a bad idea.

The bitcoin lightning network substantially eases the scaling problem for an order of magnitude or two growth, after which scalability is likely to start biting again.

The bitcoin lightning network’s problems appeared to be insoluble to me, because of the way bitcoin works, and because I was just not seeing the will or coherent organization needed to fix them.

The taproot update to bitcoin, however, makes it possible to fix the lightning network, and suggests the existence of will and organization capable of fixing it, and with intent to do so. I conjecture that the recent rise in bitcoin is substantially driven by this prospect.

The biggest immediate problem with the lightning network is unrelated to the issues that taproot addresses: backup. Backup of your lightning network is broken, unless you are merely the client of some big node,.

The big point and big value proposition of cryptocurrency is that you don’t have to suffer client status, with all its grave costs, dangers, and inconveniences. It is client status that is the problem that bitcoin was originally created to fix.

To recover your lightning wallet you need both the master secret and the current state of your lightning wallet. Which you probably lost in the crash. Backups will not work, because the state of your lightning wallet, unless you are a mere client of a single important node, is likely to change frequently and unpredictably. The current backup solutions are a collection of complicated half assed workarounds which are likely to mostly work most of the time, provided you know who all your counterparties are, they are still around, and they are honest, well behaved, and well intentioned.

The correct solution is that every time your wallet state changes, it should send a copy of the state change, not the entire state, just the change in state, encrypted to a secret that only the possessor of the master secret can generate, to a couple of backups in the cloud.

Then if your lightning wallet crashes, you could recreate it from your master secret by re-running all the state changes from the beginning.

I don’t know why this was not implemented. Perhaps it is just that they had, and have, more pressing problems to deal with, but now that there is substantial, and rapidly growing, money in the lightning network it becomes a lot more pressing. I intend to go lightning, once backup is adequately addressed, and am going back to bitcoin right now.

Gold, crypto currency, and hyperinflation

September 19th, 2021

The fed is printing a pile of money, and what is happening to that money is as obscured and obfuscated as the claims about inflation.

We have for some time been seeing shortages of critical products, typically special products with sticky prices. A contractor cannot get his final payment for lack of a three hundred dollar part, and goes bankrupt. These shortages are increasing and we are now starting to see shortages of basic products, the most basic of them all being labor itself, and very high inflation in products that do not have sticky prices, such as lumber. This prefigures a lot of inflation already baked into the cake, which inflation will greatly exceed inflationary expectations, which are low due to normality bias. There has been quite a lot of inflation lately, considerably exceeding inflationary expectations. The shortages and the inability to maintain monetary discipline which underlies those shortages prefigure a great deal more inflation, exceeding inflationary expectations even further.

Hat tip Pseudo-Chrysostom for the image.

The official inflation numbers have long been detached from reality. They have now, rather suddenly, become rather more seriously detached. They are about to rapidly become a great deal more detached.

The underlying cause is collapse of cohesion and discipline among the elite. They are just unable to stop all sorts of people helping themselves to the printing press, which lack of control and discipline prefigures hyper inflation – not tomorrow, not probably next month, probably not next year or the year after, but not far off.

Hyperinflation does not happen all at once. It starts with wave of startlingly bad inflation, then a wave of relative stability, and people think normality has returned. But it has not. There is another wave, and another, each with more inflation than the last, each with more rapid inflation than the last, and the waves coming closer and closer together, finally blending into one continuous wave until no one knows what prices should be, and the money just stops being useful.

Asset prices are inflating, as people with access to easy money buy real assets, but in the final stages of inflation, asset prices no longer keep up with inflation, because the money ceases to be useful as a measure of value, and assets are illiquid. Someone has a trillion dollars, is not sure whether he should invest in a house with it buy or a hamburger. He is hungry, so he buys the hamburger.

Gold and crypto is hedge against hyperfinflation. Anyone who buys bitcoin intending to sell it for fiat money is a fool,, because investing with the intent of selling presupposes that it is a bubble. Outsiders cannot profit from a bubble. You cannot get out of a bubble sooner than everyone else, because by the time you know it is time to get out, everyone also knows it. (Unless of course the government is the buyer of last resort, or is funding wetbacks with no id, no income, no job, and no assets to take out million dollar mortgages, as in the great Minority Mortgage Meltdown) The primary argument for bitcoin is that fiat is a bubble, hence the hodl strategy. Pay no attention to the latest news, because you know the final destination. Dips are a buying opportunity, assuming the hodler noticed the dip, which he probably did not.

When one does book keeping and accounting, one wants the entries in the assets and liabilities column to be as directly as possible connected to real things that have real value. In contrast, the fed balance sheet is unreadable, and its flows incomprehensible – this has gone beyond normal government incompetence and looks more and more like three card monte. The budget and the debt limit and all that have become as meaningless and irrelevant as the Queen travelling in a stage coach to open the British Parliament.

Silver, these days, is an industrial metal. In the long depression, it was spontaneously demonetized, because people used banks and banknotes for small transactions, and it has been steadily demonetizing further and further. In a hyperfinflation, it might remonetize for transactions of moderate size, but I don’t think so. Crypto currency renders it irrelevant.

The real value of silver relative to other resources, like oil and iron, is likely to remain approximately stable, but as people see what is coming, the real value of crypto and gold, relative to resources and goods, is rising, with crypto rising far faster than gold. If, as I think likely, crypto currency results in the demonetization of gold, gold is going to fall in real value relative to resources and goods a very long way, while silver will remain relatively stable. Stability sounds good, but you will not be able to buy food, guns, and ammo with it.

Elections and voting

September 10th, 2021

Democracy died on 2020-11-04, so I have been paying no attention to elections, electoral integrity laws, and all that.

But, due to normalcy bias, lots of people have:

In the run up before the 2020-11-03 election, the Democrats massively escalated all their regular routine fraud, sufficient to deal with a massive Trump landslide.

But instead of a massive Trump landslide, they got a colossal Trump landslide, so in the early hours of the morning of 2020-11-04, halted the counting, and proceed with hasty, panicked, and incompetent last minute fraud. Which last minute fraud was only applied to the federal election results, with the result that a lot of states went Republican at the state level.

And, theoretically, the states control the election process. So those freshly minted Republicans think they are onto a good thing. So, a bunch of election integrity laws.

Also, a whole lot of laws against critical race theory.

The laws on critical race theory appear to be having absolutely no effect. Law has ceased to matter. The laws on election integrity are likely to be similarly ignored. Only Republican scrutineers backed by physical violence are likely to have a significant effect on election outcomes. To attain a fair and honest electoral outcome, Republicans would need to deploy the methods that Julius Caesar and the NSDAP used attain a fair and honest electoral outcome. Such methods are likely to produce a fair election only once.

But it looks like the Republicans are going to try another ride on this merry go round. It will may well be their last ride. I count my survival prospects much better than theirs.

Extent of Clot Shot sequelae

September 5th, 2021

Poster girl principle:
If the poster girl for some cause (Emmett Till, Madam Curie) is fake, the cause is fake – we are being pushed to pay attention to something that does not exist. No plausibly innocent negroes were lynched (ever, anywhere in the United States), there are no female scientists.

News blackout principle:
If some event that is cause for concern and alarm is being suppressed, there is one hell of a lot of it and you should be concerned and alarmed. When the Facebook Covid-19 vaccine side effects group was shut down, you knew that there were massive numbers of people suffering adverse affects from the vaccine. The blackout principle is far more reliable than any number of statistics.

The Vaers reporting system is reporting far more adverse vaccination events for the Clot Shot than for any other vaccine ever – but the Vaers reporting system is official science, and if science is official, it is not science – the scientific method was defined by the Skeptical Chymist, which definition was adopted by the invisible college and then endorsed and socially enforced by the King when he made the invisible college in to the very visible Royal Society, is that official science is not only unreliable, but wicked.

We have no end of examples of official science lying about statistics, and it is likely that Vaers is under reporting by a very large factor.

How big a factor?

Well, people are not dying like flies, but they are dying at in unusual numbers. We are seeing a lot of anecdotal serious consequences among friends of friends, in the news, unusual numbers of high profile deaths, healthy athletes, airline pilots suddenly dying, sometimes in flight, prominent people. I have long said that we will know how lethal the clot shot is when it shows up in excess young mortality

Graph deleted due to lack of provenance for the data

Nakim:

“Our reanalyses of these data explain why during the massive vaccination project initiated mid-December 2020 during a confinement, daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases failed to decrease as they do during confinements, and, more importantly, why numbers of serious, critical, and death cases increased during that period that covered at least one month. From mid-December to mid-February (two months), 2,337 among all Israeli 5,351 official COVID-deaths occurred. Our analyses indicate orders of magnitude increases in deaths rates during the 5-week long vaccination process, as compared to the unvaccinated and those after completing the vaccination process. Presumably, asymptomatic cases before vaccination, and those infected shortly after the 1st dose, tend to develop graver symptoms than those unvaccinated.”
“The Ynet article is organized in an exciting way and uses data provided in an erroneous way by the Ministry of Health. It is unclear whether this was intentional to prove the vaccine’s efficiency or if this was done erroneously because the provided data were misunderstood. Note that in Israel, all vaccines are from Pfizer.

“The data in the table, rather than indicating the vaccine efficacy, indicate the vaccine’s adverse effects,”

It is not huge, but it is significant. This is our earliest data, and when we have better data, likely to be considerably bigger, but it is still not going to be huge even when we have better data. This is not the zombie apocalypse, but it is mass human sacrifice to the Awesome, Holy, and Mighty Covid Demon.

It looks like mortality attributed to China flu is remarkably high in the forty days following the first clot shot. Which is what we would expect if mortality and China flu/Clot shot sequalae are due to circulating spike protein. The Clot shot is dosed so that most people do not suffer immediate and obvious harm, but if you have China flu and the clot shot, you get a higher dose of circulating spike protein than planned. And you already have, from the clot shot, the highest mostly safe dose. More on top of that, you get into much more dangerous territory.

I would really like to get data on Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), not because it is a major vaccine sequel, but because it is normally very rare, so should stick out in the data like dogs balls. I am hearing a lot of anecdotal reports of people getting very weak and falling over. I expect we would see an epidemic of Guillain-Barré, if the extent of Guillain-Barré was not being suppressed. But the primary threat is the diverse consequences of blood vessel inflammation, blood vessel inflammation in the heart just being those cases that get specific diagnoses, and inflammation of the brain only getting specific diagnosis when the victim is dropping dead. If your heart is inflamed, you are probably inflamed all over, including lungs, brain, liver, and kidneys. We are not getting the whole picture when the sequelae get shoe horned into inflammation of one particular organ. Inflammation of the lungs means the victim cannot walk very far without getting out of breath. We are hearing a lot of that anecdotally. Inflammation of the brain leaves the victim in a fog. We are hearing a lot of that anecdotally, but it is not getting diagnoses, it is not being recorded in official science. And inflammation of the liver and kidneys has no immediate consequences, but is likely to have severe and eventually fatal long term consequences, leading to deaths that cannot be clearly attributed to the vaccine, or anything else in particular.

But the big problem is not lethality, but adverse affects – People get sick, stay sick. A few of those sick people die, but the vast majority of them are just chronically ill. We don’t have a handle on how many have serious and lasting ill effects.

We have anecdotes, but we don’t know how serious and common these anecdotes are:


But in the long run, the biggest problem we face is not that after a long series of faulty, ineffective and dangerous vaccines, we now have vaccine that is a lot less effective and a lot more dangerous, but that if they are sacrificing large numbers of people to the to the Awesome, Holy, and Mighty Covid Demon, pretty soon they are going to be ripping out people’s hearts on pyramids and rolling the bodies down the pyramid steps to be eaten by the congregation. The official faith has tasted blood, and it is appetite is only just beginning. The historical record is that once the official faith wants humans sacrificed to its idols, it is going to want a lot more humans sacrificed to a lot more idols.

What our enemies revealed in the fall of Kabul

September 4th, 2021

Newt Gingrich: “Sad not a single women’s group on the left is up in arms about Afghanistan.”

Of course not. Feminism and female emancipation is merely a shit test, and women love men who pass their shit tests, and hate men who fail them.

Reflect on the savage hatred that feminists bear against Greek letter fraternities and rich and famous movie producers who fail to rape them, with their eager and enthusiastic response to Rotherham and the Cologne rape festival: “Refugees welcome.” “We are not your women.”

If you read between the lines of the Rotherham stories, it is seems that the very young girls being raped and threatened were strangely difficult to help and protect when family members tried to help and protect them.

As the collapse began, but before the Officially Unofficial Press acknowledged that Kabul had fallen, I saw talking heads displaying awareness that this was a holy war, and awareness that you have to bring a gun to a gunfight and a faith to a holy war.

The people of Afghanistan, we were repeatedly told, loved Globohomo, democracy, and feminism, and would fight for it.

Events proved that the Afghan army would not fight for Globohomo.

They brought a faith to a holy war, but it was revealed that Satanic faiths are not very useful in holy wars.

UK Variants concern VOC technical briefing 17

August 31st, 2021

There is some controversy over what the UK Variants concern VOC technical briefing 17 shows about the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Several sources claimed that table five of UK Variants concern VOC technical briefing 17 showed vaccination made you more likely to die of China Flu

“Fact checkers” said that table five said no such thing, and indeed when I looked at it, table five was about something totally unrelated.

But strangely, table four said much the same thing, in a different breakdown of the same data as the alleged table five allegedly used to cover.

From which I conclude that the document has changed, and is likely to change yet again.

Official version I downloaded

Official version right now (Which when last checked, has not yet changed from the version I downloaded.)

Page Fourteen:  Deaths classified as Covid deaths for the period under analysis:  Vaccinated seventy deaths, unvaccinated forty four deaths.

The vaccine is well known to give no protection against mild cases of the disease.  This data does not suggest it gives any protection against serious cases of the disease.

Because the data in table four is broken down differently to the alleged table five, one cannot say whether vaccination is greater risk or lower risk, but it is clearly no big improvement, and may well make things worse, which is consistent with its failure to provide any discernible protective effect against mild infections or the likelihood of spreading mild infections.

Of course another explanation is that vaccination has no effect on death rate, because there is no death rate.

A ninety year old man goes into a clinic, because he is worried that his anticancer medication is aggravating his heart failure, liver failure, and kidney failure. They ask him about Covid symptoms,like they ask everyone else.  He has a blocked nose.  They swab his nose, find covid, but he is not running a temperature.  Five days later, his nose is no longer blocked.  Twenty seven days later he is hit by a truck, and bits splattered all over the place.

He gets counted in the above table..

Lethality of vaccination

August 30th, 2021

When driving, I got tired of the CD, and turned on the radio, to hear the voice of authority calling on the public to report doctors who doubt the vax, or who prescribe safe and effective drugs for Covid, to the medical malpractice board.

This sort of thing makes it difficult to get data.  When you search the internet, nothing comes up except a storm of absurd and outrageous official lies, but I ran into the following posted on Gab.

Total US army deaths from covid itself, over the entire time it has been around, about twenty.

US army deaths and sequelae of vaccination that are likely to be lethal per day, about fifty.

This is roughly what I was expecting from anecdotal data.