Russia: Four oblasts, neutrality, and freedom for the Russian minority in the Ukraine.
The Ukraine: What? That is worse than Istanbul Two.
Russia. Next time it will be eight oblasts.
The difference between Istanbul Two and now is that the Ukrainian offensive failed, and the Ukrainian army is rapidly shrinking while the Russian army is growing. If it continues to shrink, in a little while, will be eight oblasts.
Did you get that from VD, or upstream of him?
who is VD?
The Ukrainian rendering of this conversation is “Next time it will be five oblasts”.
However the Russian rendering of this conversation was “Next time it will be eight oblasts.”
Which is more accurate, probably no one quite remembers, but the Ukrainians have an incentive to exaggerate current Russian demands, and minimise the prospect that Russia will escalate their demands as the war continues to its conclusion, while the Russians have an incentive to exaggerate the likelihood that they will escalate their demands as the war continues to its conclusion.
But obviously Russia will escalate its demands as full military victory looms closer, and the likely cost of rendering rump Ukraine an empty desolate wilderness diminishes.
People are talking escalated sanctions, but we are drifting into a dollar crisis, as SWIFT loses its grip. Trump wants to rescue SWIFT from its self inflicted injuries. Escalating sanctions will escalate the dollar crisis.
The sanction that would be effective is military action against Russian shadow fleet oil tankers. But once great power conflict escalates to shutting down each other’s sea transport, America is more vulnerable because it has greater dependency on sea.
Maybe attacks on russian oil ships would get no response, yet another red line crossed, and nothing happens. A lot of Russian red lines have been crossed, and nothing happened. Until it did.
VD = Vox Day
The chap who Neurotoxin is not inordinately fond of
Truly, he has had some good insights. But since 2020 he’s gotten so loopy in some ways.
What purpose do these talks serve for Russia? Anything short of total victory in Ukraine is bound to cause trouble down the road. My guess is that this message is more directed towards EU than anyone else, and especially not (agreement incapable) Ukraine.
To the extent that US involvement in Ukraine has always been a demoKKKrat money laundering machine, all I can continue to say is: Go Vlad! Beat Obama!
Men like General William Sherman, Major General Terry Allen, and General George Patton are legends for their extraordinary accomplishments. Why are such men missing from our military leadership today? Where did they go?
Turns out many such men, if not most, eventually catch a legal case. Once that happens, they get ‘rehabilitated’ i.e. put on something like ‘vacation’ for quite a bit of time. Long term effect is that promotions become much harder to obtain, a combination of the loss of work experience from the ‘rehabilitation’ and how negative paperwork is factored in on promotion boards. They tend to not break through the Major bottleneck, and they never survive congressional scrutiny for promotion above Col. That’s if they’re not administratively separated first. All those military legends I used as examples would have been separated early into their careers in today’s military.
The type of man who is effective in combat and leadership, who will close with and destroy the enemy, is to HR’s ire, an aggressive, some might say ‘colorful’ and disagreeable man. The type of man who will say it as it is because he is conscious of the reality and what has to be done. The complete opposite of the smooth talking, inoffensive, visionless, PR obsessed, bureaucrat progressive civil society desires. Result is a plethora of ‘leaders’ like General McChrystal.
Reposting an all time classic https://johntreed.com/blogs/john-t-reed-s-blog-about-military-matters/60879683-the-u-s-military-s-marathon-30-year-single-elimination-suck-up-tournament-or-how-america-selects-its-generals
This. Alpha men, the lions and bulls of old, cannot stand in nor achieve much in modern society. aAs such, their careers are stalled, or they leave. The strong man of the West is gone, at least for now. God help us all.
Might want to change “uncategorized” to “war”.
Russian demographic statistics have been increasingly secretive since 2020, especially since 2022; this year they stopped publishing births and deaths by oblast – only the overall federal data. With this too, they are very likely juggling and massaging the data no less skillfully than western counterparts, counting the new ukrainian oblasts when it suits them, counting the people in the two georgian oblasts liberated in 2008, with russian passports being handed out to the population, counting births registered in consulates from the enormous russian diaspora, etc.
Belarus has also stopped publishing details of demographic data since 2020, but leaks and extrapolations show that the trend of 10% drop in fertility per year (started around 2017) has continued into 2025. Belarus is a smaller, homogenous country of around 9 mil, so it’s easier to figure things out there than in Russia proper.
Of course, this situation is common in variations across the former Eastern Block. Lithuania has doubled its migrant import of bangladeish, pakis, and sri-lankas this year https://dzen.ru/news/story/1c0a3a43-014d-5968-b84a-6023a31ca86a
The age pyramid isn’t too good anywhere. Shifts can be pretty important over just a few years. The average eastern european joe at 35 and at 40 are two different things, health and stamina-wise. Same for 40 vs 50, 50 vs 55, etc. Around 60+ they start dying off in waves.
Thus far Moscow has managed to find ways to maintain the needed influx of soldiers, to a significant extent by bribing aging provincial gopniks by paying them in a year the equivalent of 10 years of average wages, plus all sorts of additional benefits, and the economy as a whole has adapted to the current situation.
But none of this is forever. Five years from now 40 year ivans will be 45, and 45 year old ivans will be 50. New young ivans are quite far from replacement levels, as is the case across the northern hemisphere, central asia and two indian regions and smaller religious clusters excepted.
The demographic situation is just as dire in China and Iran. Today’s population almost everywhere, and very much so in Russia, Iran, China and Belarus, is a non-renewable resource for the first time in modern history. Today is the peak. Or rather, 2010 – 2020 was the peak, now is early decline, still not so obvious while millions are “middle aged” as opposed to “seniors”. But this shift happens far too quickly.
And again, there is no equivalent number of youngsters appearing to compensate those shifts. This resource is non-renewable. It is being used up in real time, and there is no replacement, except for racial replacement through import.
In a sense, nobody really has the time for endless b.s. A roomful of clocks are ticking away frantically. Whatever has to be resolved, needs to be resolved right now. Which Trump and Musk appear to realize more than anyone.
Exactly so.
If no pro-reproductive solution in the immediate or near future, then in a few decades all of those countries will just be a hodgepodge of 85-90 IQ brown people from all over the planet, who will likely also fail to reproduce, so will have to bring in 70 IQ blacks from Africa. Thus “Russia” for instance will just be some browns and blacks who may or may not speak the Russian language. Even if the native population won’t be all savagely executed and stirred in a pot yum yum, it will simply no longer exist, and so high civilization ends.
You solve the problem or you disappear.