If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle. Hello? The west has been succumbing in every battle.
A deal should have been made in July 2023 when it became obvious that the Ukraine was trapped in a war of attrition that it was losing. And therefore the only possible outcome is a neutral buffer state Ukrainian government governing a considerably reduced rump Ukraine.
Once it becomes obvious that you are losing a war of attrition, you either have to break out of it into war of maneuver, which is what they tried and dismally failed to do in June 2023, or else make a deal while you still have some bargaining chips left, for if it goes on, and on, and on, you will have fewer and fewer bargaining chips left. And today, how many chips does the Ukraine have left?
The Washington establishment was deep delusion until after Trump was elected, whereupon some elements of the Washington establishment finally dared say that the Ukraine has very few bargaining chips left. But all remain in perfect accord that it is quite unthinkable that the outcome will be a neutral buffer state, and that Trump could not possibly dare let that happen. So he will have to find some new chips to bring to the table. Like what?
In the events leading up to this war, and over the course of this war, the Ukraine have recruited over two million men, probably less than three million men. Somewhere in the ballpark of two and half million men.
If all Ukrainian brigades were fully staffed, then all known brigades would add up to three hundred and seventy thousand men. We know that lots of brigades have lost most of their men, and frequently these men have not been replaced, but on the other hand, there may be brigades we don’t know about. The existing brigades complain a lot about how new brigades are being formed, while old used up brigades do not get new men. Somewhere in the ballpark of three hundred thousand men, and shrinking rapidly. They are conscripting thirty thousand a month, they do not seem to be able to train and equip thirty thousand a month, and if they were able to train and equip that many would not be nearly enough to keep up with their losses.
So the Ukraine has something like one ninth of its men left. That is getting mighty close to the army disappearing completely.
At this point the only rational course of action for the Ukraine is to unconditionally lay down their arms and disband the army, because the threat of delaying the inevitable is not much of a bargaining chip, even though they could probably delay the inevitable for quite a while longer. The only thing they can do is try to get as much Russian goodwill as possible, or at least stop generating bad will. Unfortunately, the Ukraine is run from Washington, via Canada, and the people running it do not want Ukrainians to get any Russian goodwill. If they cannot ensure very many Russian dead, they would like to ensure as many as possible Ukrainian dead.
Trump, of course, rather likes Ukrainians, because he rather likes everyone, and would strongly prefer as few as possible dead on both sides. Unfortunately he is not running the government, and one may well doubt he will be running the government after 2025 January the twentieth. Trump has nominated Tulsi Gabbard to run the spooks, and the Ukraine is administered through the spook agencies. There is extreme resistance to this. Any personnel that would give effect to Trump’s policy is going to face extreme resistance, and Tulsi Gabbard is facing extreme resistance. The reason that Trump nominated her, rather than someone with better spook background, is probably that Tulsi Gabbard strongly wants to end the war. Personnel is policy. Despite Trump’s promise to end the war on the first day, the Ukraine is likely to keep on fighting until after Tulsi Gabbard takes control of the spooks.
Tulsi Gabbard may be unable to take power, which would represent Trump failing to take power, and if she does take power elements of the spooks are talking about blowing off the US Government and continuing the operation from Canada and Europe, but without backing from America, they are going to lose power by and by, which could take a while.
Regardless of what happens in Washington, it will not change the outcome. It was entirely obvious by 2023 July that at the end of this war, the rump of Ukraine will be governed by an officially neutral buffer state government.
What we have yet to know, what remains in doubt, is whether that neutral buffer state government will be installed by Trump through Tulsi Gabbard and the spooks, or whether more Ukrainians are going to die, and then it is going be installed by Putin.
As long as Biden’s handlers don’t kick off WW3 and end civilization, I’ll consider it a win regardless of which way things go. It’s tragic to lose so many men taking orders from those who wish them dead, but what’s done is done.
I really hope Jim is right that GAE does not have any more cards left to escalate. Would they be insane enough to blockade Kaliningrad?
Putin has been extremely sane and trying everything to avoid World War 3, and has been showing utmost restraint so far. But even his limits will be stretched if the GAE war faction control even under Trump.
The priority is clear: Harvard should be obliterated stone by stone. Globohomo must be incinerated so thoroughly that the faith evaporates completely without trace. Everything else can wait.
Even if we have wars between other competing faiths later, that can be dealt with later. This alone is of utmost importance.
They already did, the land route to Kaliningrad was blockaded for more than a month, but they were patiently reminded that the treaty recognizing the right of passage is the same treaty that recognizes their borders and that they really really do in fact want that treaty to remain in force.