And with the Ukrainian army disappearing on the battlefield, and the Russian army growing and becoming better equipped, if there is change in future, those terms will change for the better for Russia, the worse for Ukraine, and the worse for America.
Zero: No deal with Zelenksy.
One: Temporary truce leading to UN administration of the Ukraine to hold free and fair elections in the Ukraine, in which the Russian speaking plurality of Ukrainians will be free to participate and organise.
Two: Negotiations with the newly elected government leading to international recognition, including recognition by Ukraine, of the four now Russian oblasts of the Ukraine, and an independent and non aligned Ukrainian government in the Ukraine recognised by all, with boundaries recognised by all.
Or else.
Or else what?
The total annihilation of all of non Russian part of Ukraine, and its replacement by an empty wilderness. If Russia cannot have neutral states as a buffer zone, it will have a desolate wilderness as a buffer zone.
Georgia has wisely opted to be a neutral buffer state. I formerly recommended that to ensure continuation of that status, they should kill every ngo operative they find on their soil, but with USAID shut down, such drastic measures are less urgent.
On the other hand, Poland shows what happens if you do not take firm measures against ngos. After Ukraine, next up is Poland or Latvia. Probably Latvia.
I am curious what path a reduced Ukraine can take but as for the peace, I think option 2 is the only one that’s even actionable.
Currently, Russia is building rail lines through occupied Ukraine.
The front has been static for a while due to the lack of logistics capacity and, with that issue soon to be resolved, Russia will be able to seize by force the remaining Oblasts that are viewed as part of Novorossiya.
I think this is the last piece missing before Russia makes the final push to take Odesa and cut Ukraine off from the sea. Why would Russia de-escalate with victory so near to hand?
I maintain that this ends either when Zelensky picks sanity and surrenders, or gets done in by his own men for failing to.
“I maintain that this ends either when Zelensky picks sanity and surrenders, or gets done in by his own men for failing to.”
I bet he gets fragged by his own guys. Or they’ll force him to surrender by shoving an actual, physical gun into his face and explaining that a surrender will be issued, either by him or by his successor after he’s dead.
>worse for America
Oh? I didn’t realize US was a belligerent in the war. US has no stake in peace negotiations. 🙃
Especially now that we are at war with Iran.
A war that ends in a quick victory and hopefully a full withdrawal from the middle east. After all it would not be appropriate to keep US bases downwind of nuclear fallout, or even have them there since the ‘Axis of Evil’ was removed. Btw Europe, have fun trying to trade with and through that region now that it’s “salted”.
For (real) real, the only bad outcome for America is an actual “peace” treaty in which we have any interests (boots on the ground) in the Ukraine. We can simply choose to not acknowledge interest in the same way Putin has hinted he can choose to not acknowledge US interest in Greenland. Peace between Moscow and DC will be unspoken, informal gentleman’s assumption, much to Europe’s chagrin. What’s more important for the US is an exit strategy from Europe itself. One that is as profitable as possible.