And with the Ukrainian army disappearing on the battlefield, and the Russian army growing and becoming better equipped, if there is change in future, those terms will change for the better for Russia, the worse for Ukraine, and the worse for America.
Zero: No deal with Zelenksy.
One: Temporary truce leading to UN administration of the Ukraine to hold free and fair elections in the Ukraine, in which the Russian speaking plurality of Ukrainians will be free to participate and organise.
Two: Negotiations with the newly elected government leading to international recognition, including recognition by Ukraine, of the four now Russian oblasts of the Ukraine, and an independent and non aligned Ukrainian government in the Ukraine recognised by all, with boundaries recognised by all.
Or else.
Or else what?
The total annihilation of all of non Russian part of Ukraine, and its replacement by an empty wilderness. If Russia cannot have neutral states as a buffer zone, it will have a desolate wilderness as a buffer zone.
Georgia has wisely opted to be a neutral buffer state. I formerly recommended that to ensure continuation of that status, they should kill every ngo operative they find on their soil, but with USAID shut down, such drastic measures are less urgent.
On the other hand, Poland shows what happens if you do not take firm measures against ngos. After Ukraine, next up is Poland or Latvia. Probably Latvia.
Let me give you the terms…
The EuroWest is going to put a line of troopes in UA barely even 10km away, and if Putin fire on them, he’s going to get smashed back out of UA, and take all his “Russian Speakers” with him. [Similar bombast deleted*]
It appears that the Eurowest can put at most thirty thousand troops into Ukraine.
The Ukraine appears to be losing more than thirty thousand per month (dead, irrecoverably wounded, deserted, missing in combat, taken prisoner), because the Ukrainians are rounding up thirty thousand cannon fodder a month, yet their army is shrinking while the Russian army is growing.
So European intervention would postpone Ukranian collapse by at most a month.
However I believe that Europe’s spear has no tip, that this would be thirty thousand logistics workers, camp followers, and brass covered bureaucrats. Which would not postpone Ukraine’s collapse for a day.
I am curious what path a reduced Ukraine can take but as for the peace, I think option 2 is the only one that’s even actionable.
Currently, Russia is building rail lines through occupied Ukraine.
The front has been static for a while due to the lack of logistics capacity and, with that issue soon to be resolved, Russia will be able to seize by force the remaining Oblasts that are viewed as part of Novorossiya.
I think this is the last piece missing before Russia makes the final push to take Odesa and cut Ukraine off from the sea. Why would Russia de-escalate with victory so near to hand?
I maintain that this ends either when Zelensky picks sanity and surrenders, or gets done in by his own men for failing to.
“I maintain that this ends either when Zelensky picks sanity and surrenders, or gets done in by his own men for failing to.”
I bet he gets fragged by his own guys. Or they’ll force him to surrender by shoving an actual, physical gun into his face and explaining that a surrender will be issued, either by him or by his successor after he’s dead.
The West will concede, forcing Zelensky to concede.
Provided their Satellites and other Intel do not discover that Russia is preparing to take anything West of the four oblasts proper, or West of the Dnieper, or in particular the Black Sea seaports West of Crimea such as Odesa.
There is no way the West will give up access via Black Sea.
So much so that EU will likely send in non-Nato units to defend it.
This means Zelensky will be made to concede before then.
His early options are gone, no more options left before getting routed.
Unless RU is running dangerously low on weapons, which is extremly unlikely, and the West discovers that.
Zelensky isn’t an independent actor at all. Zelensky is doing exactly what the CIA is telling him to do. Which means, Trump and company are playing the “good cop”, pretending to want peace, while letting the war continue as always.
This also applies to the european lapdogs. The rothschild faggot macron and company aren’t acting on their own when they spout their warmongering crap. They are following the CIA script.
Undeniably that is what is happening right now. On the other hand, what is also happening right now is that Trump is securing power. Before rushing to judgment, let us see what happens once his power is more secure.
Thermidor is always fragile, unstable, and apt to collapse at any moment. Trump is riding the tiger.
>The front has been static for a while due to the lack of logistics capacity
Exchanges of bodies indicate over a 10 to 1 kill ratio in Russia’s favor. In a war of attrition, why ever would Russia decide to change up the front lines drastically when it has been working out so well for them. Remember, one of Russia’s war goals was demilitarizing Ukraine. If the Ukrainians wish to fight in unsustainable positions, why change them… I don’t wish to accuse you of map autism (because I largely don’t know your position), but much of the Western analysis of the front lines has been driven by map autism.
>worse for America
Oh? I didn’t realize US was a belligerent in the war. US has no stake in peace negotiations. 🙃
Especially now that we are at war with Iran.
A war that ends in a quick victory and hopefully a full withdrawal from the middle east. After all it would not be appropriate to keep US bases downwind of nuclear fallout, or even have them there since the ‘Axis of Evil’ was removed. Btw Europe, have fun trying to trade with and through that region now that it’s “salted”.
For (real) real, the only bad outcome for America is an actual “peace” treaty in which we have any interests (boots on the ground) in the Ukraine. We can simply choose to not acknowledge interest in the same way Putin has hinted he can choose to not acknowledge US interest in Greenland. Peace between Moscow and DC will be unspoken, informal gentleman’s assumption, much to Europe’s chagrin. What’s more important for the US is an exit strategy from Europe itself. One that is as profitable as possible.
I have been listening to Iranians on Youtube.
Quick victory is not an option, even if we lead with nukes. Recall how Hungary defeated the Mongols. They just kept on fighting with more than half their population dead and most of their buildings levelled.
The enemy gets to decide whether a quick victory is on the table.
The mongols lost because of logistics. Their supply chain was too long and too exposed. How are American logistics?
The Iranian plan in the event of war is to prevent anyone from moving stuff in or near the middle east. It is reprise of the Hungarian plan against the Mongols. Could work. Will be ruinously painful for everyone.
I believe Pax is acknowledging that nuking Iran and leaving is not actually removing Iran or creating anything but chaos and enemies in the region. From what I can gather, the intent is not to permanently pacify them, but to destabilize them enough and destroy enough infrastructure that they cannot finish their nuclear weapons program.
Why this is necessary for the US, I’m not sure. He says that the decision makers are concerned of a “rout” and want to retreat instead. This makes little sense to me. The world has already seen the results of Afghanistan, and now Ukraine, Yemen, and even the skirmishes over African Uranium. Looks like the GAE has already been defeated abroad, and everyone knows it. So what’s the point of blowing up Iran on the way out? How does a destabilized and permanently enemy-oriented Middle East help US empire in retreat? Preventing the oil from running properly if Russia expanded there? This really seems like an actual ZOG maneuver with a thin veneer of justification. It’s consistent with the other actions of those involved with the province of Judea, bloodlust and handwaving away the consequences of attempting battery on the local 400lb gorilla.
The effectiveness of that depends on how finished their nuclear program already is.
They have the rockets, and allegedly have the fissionables. In which case it is very near finished and they are just thinking about what might ensue if the actually finished it.
Or maybe that is all bluff and cow manure. Probably it is. But war tends to result in unpleasant surprises. Who would have thought that Serbia could hold off Austria, that Finland could hold off Russia. Or that Hungary could defeat the Mongols? If you go to war, expect the unexpected, and expect that the unexpected is going to be very bad indeed.
>chaos and enemies in the region
Yes.
Burn and loot everything possible as US
retreatsstrategically redeploys. If nothing can sail through the Suez/Hormuz for the far foreseeable future, that’s a ‘victory’.>that’s a ‘victory’
That’s the demons shouting in their heads jumping into your head too.
Indeed, did you think I was not self aware? Nonetheless, here we are:
-Proxy war with Iran is escalating
-Major military buildup in the region with nuclear assets moved there
-Ultimatum for nuclear disarmament being issued by Trump
-His administration parroting the military option
-Iran refusing high level talks and capitulation
-Bombing drills being conducted
-A strange silence on the topic of Iran has fallen on the American media (but not overseas media)
As I said before, what is being felt at the top is being felt downhill. It’s hard to describe what I’m feeling. A sort of exited cynical depression.
At the risk of being facetious, ‘Victory’ in some cases is not Victory. The notion of what is and is not American interests, at this moment in time, is not entirely a known known. But what is a Known Unknown is continued escalation with Russia, an Unknown we don’t want to Know, and so we pivot to something else. Such is the sordid history of American geopolitics of the last century. Were we really so foolish to expect anything else, especially on the death bed of GAE? Trump notwithstanding?
I’m in the position to bleed and die when this shit show crash lands. What I do know is that I’d much rather prefer a relatively soft landing in Iran rather than Russia and/or China. Any such landing will still be mighty hard. The latter options would certainly be beyond terminal for both myself and my nation. With Iran there’s still a chance of ‘Victory’.
Once pandora’s nuclear box is open, won’t be closed. Sure you can delay other countries opening the box, and it is likely wise to do so, but there is a limit to how far you can push this. Pakistan has nukes, the world has not yet ended. Other countries besides Iran will develop nukes, can’t bomb them all into the stone age.
The era of ‘America, world police’ has come to an end. Afghanistan was the canary in the coalmine, Ukraine the confirmation. This talk of ‘just one last war bro, just a tiny war’ against Iran of all countries is madness. If a war is started under Trump’s watch it will tarnish his legacy forever. Yet another minefield for him to deal with.
There has been no significant movement on the Ukrainian battlefield since May 2022. So it is easy for them to delude themselves that it is a stalemate.
Much as they deluded themselves in Afghanistan, unaware that what Trump had negotiated was a surrender. He wanted to remove every last item of military equipment, and they wanted to leave it in place. And their delusion remained utterly and unshakably firm even as their Afghan allies clung to the wheels of planes going out. They expected Afghan action girls to crush the Taliban. They really did. They continued to expect that. They still do, though reality penetrated most Americans rather quickly. They still think America world police is still going great.
So a realistic settlement of the Ukraine war is unimaginable to them.
Because the “America World Police”, “rules based international order” people live in a state of obstinate delusion, they are likely to start a war with Russia, or Iran, or China, or all three simultaneously.
And at the same time, because the radical left gets daily more radical and more deluded, they are likely to attempt to start a revolution.
Their river of meat operation has been re-activated, but is running on the remaining capital of their billionaires, of whom they now have considerably fewer, and whose money is no longer being replenished from the taxpayer, but, when they look out at a sea of astroturf, are likely to imagine they have material for revolution.
“Tarnish his legacy?” If he’s idiot enough to do this, he’ll be lucky if he’s not executed for treason. You can’t just go nuclear out of the clear blue sky. Whether it’s true or not (and it might be true), everyone in the world has been propagandized for decades into equating any use of nuclear weapons with doomsday. You’d better have a really, really good reason for going there. The only thing I can imagine that would make the country, the world, and most of the US government go along would be hot-blooded revenge for a WMD attack on America. Therefore, if there’s going to be a nuclear strike on Iran, I expect it to be preceded by a false-flag nuclear attack somewhere in the US. Are the Jews, neocons, and Thermidoreans arrogant, reckless, and stupid enough to try this? Absolutely. But it would be the end of them, and the end of Trump if he is weak and befuddled enough to do it for them.
Afghanistan was confirmation, Ukraine was madness. There was no police action talk in regards to Ukraine/Russia. It was genocidal fervor because ‘Putin bad’, likely partly an outgrowth of ‘Orange man bad’. Remember the talk of breaking Russia up? Calling them Orcs? The general mass hysteria?
>This talk of ‘just one last war bro, just a tiny war’ against Iran of all countries is madness.
Yes, and Trump got in bed with madness (Thermidor) in order to get in power and govern effectively. So long as he is not King, compromises have to be made for domestic political purposes. Looks like Iran is one of them.
>If a war is started under Trump’s watch
Dude, it already started… right now it’s only a question of how much escalation, and the current trend points to a worrying spiral out of control.
>You can’t just go nuclear out of the clear blue sky.
Yes, there is an escalation chain, and we’re already in it. We’re already bombing their proxies. ‘Warning’ strikes with conventional bombs on Iranian coastal infrastructure is likely the next step, with calls for negotiations. Iran is likely to not to negotiate because American demands are too much. After that, attempts at SEAD operations. This likely will not go very well. After that, tactical nukes as a ‘last resort’. At this point Iran and the US will likely negotiate a ceasefire that the US will celebrate as a ‘victory’ while leaving the region.
Tactical nuclear bunker busters *should* result in minimal fallout and casualties. Use of those on Iranian nuclear sites will be justified by the administration as surgical strikes against hardened targets… not against civilian populations. Whether or not people will buy that we’ll have to see. Then again, people bought the clot shot as “safe and effective” so…
What if Russia or China backs Iran? Because this plan seems to be like all of Washington’s recent plans- assuming its enemies remain static and don’t bother acting in response.
As it is, leaving Iran to die makes them look weak, while backing Iran and helping them attrition American military capabilities is in their interest.
Emergency testing?
https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/52754
Since the lunatics in the US administration are thinking about nuking Iran, if, as many Iranians believe, Iran has long been very close to building a nuke, but was holding back, it is now time to get to moving.
>Oh? I didn’t realize US was a belligerent in the war. US has no stake in peace negotiations.
It seems mr. imperialis completely lost the plot and is pretty detached from reality. The US shithole isn’t a belligerant in the US invasion of Russia? Right.
As to nuking Persia, what the hell. I thought the “Trump Revolution” included Emperor Trump roleplaying as a “Peace President”? But wait. In reality Trump is just another puppet of the neocon joos who rule the US. Shocking news.
We don’t know yet if he’s going to nuke Iran.
Acting on Laura Loomer’s advice, Trump has just purged a bunch of national security advisers with excessive connections to the deep state and funny ngo money.
What impact this will have on the “nuke Iran” faction is unclear. But I suspect it takes the wind out of their sails.
“Nuke Iran” is to keep the war faction of Thermidor on side. If Trump suspects the war faction is not reliably on side, they are going to get it in the nuts.
>“Nuke Iran” is to keep the war faction of Thermidor on side. If Trump suspects the war faction is not reliably on side, they are going to get it in the nuts.
I mentioned multiple times that:
Trump is sitting on a very unstable power base with crisis at home and abroad with some very unusual and unreliable bedfellows. Many cannot easily be purged. As risk of losing control, has to keep their energy directed at something, preferably not Russia or China otherwise nuclear risks become even more dangerous. Iran is the least shit option. Trump has to sell “Nuke Iran” without actually nuking Iran to keep them in line until he can take total control… but with how things are progressing, might very well end up nuking Iran before taking total control.
>The US shithole isn’t a belligerant in the US invasion of Russia? Right.
US was never at war with Russia. US was always at war with Iran. 🙃
Seems like White Bread is completely detached from the narrative.
The catch is, you want people to read your comments about Russia as sarcasm while you unironically advocate the nuking of Persia.
And in that regard, nuking Persia is what the neocons – especially the joo faction – have been planning for the last 50 years. I will put my Conspiracy Theorist hat on and draw the conlcusion that a guy who wants to nuke Persia, like you, and tries to argue the position with a bunch of incoherent nonsense, like you do, is a crass neocon shill.
The war faction wants war with everyone forever and everywhere. They are unfortunately part of the Trump coalition. More dangerously, they remain a significant chunk of the GOP and DNC as well as our NATO “allies”, the one point of bipartisan “global leadership” that remains. Their reorientation to the Trump camp has put a pause on hot genocide of traditional America at the cost of having to throw them meat to chew on. Trump pushing for peace with Russia has burned a lot of political capital with them, and while it appears he would like to purge them, not easy task. What I communicated between the lines, and perhaps this is my failing, is that war with Iran is a political compromise for the least shit option should Trump fail to purge them in time. Based on what’s happening in the last month, time is running against Trump.
The Nuclear Option is being discussed because saner heads realize Iran can’t be dealt with militarily any other way without massive losses.
If this was just a neocon and joo problem, it could be dealt with easier, but this is also a “global leadership” bureaucracy problem. The European department of GAE, Macron, Starmer, Scholz remain an issue which is why Trump is pushing regime change in Europe. War with Iran is not just war with Iran, it would cause regime change in Europe. ‘Victory’ looks like Middle Eastern oil halting and Europe erupting in color revolution.
Zero is plausible. How about the following?
One: The military decides they had enough. Some general takes over, Zelensky is killed.
Two: The new junta is not interested in elections, but wants peace with Russia. They take any deal they can get and fulfill all Russian demands (except free elections, they like their new jobs too much).
The last Ukrainian government that won a free election was pretty much what Russia wanted. I figure they are hoping for the same again.
Did the novorussiyan oblasts vote in those elections? One big problem for pre-Maidan Ukraine seemed to be ethnic: 50% russians vs 50% others, with power flipping back and forth. Well, now rump-Ukraine no longer has so many russians.
I’m not convinced about the viability of rump-Ukraine. Much like Syria will become a Turkish province, it seems destined to become part of Poland, or possibly split among several adjacent nations. The sticky point (to some) is that these are backdoor ways to get the territory into Nato.
Strategically, Russia should take and annex Odessa before any peace deal and subsequently be the guarantor of rump-Ukraine’s independence.
Most people who voted for the last Ukrainian government that won a free election are no longer in Ukraine. They are either in parts of former Ukraine that are now parts of Russia, emigrated or died.
Greetings,
The way to stop any army is to cut off their supply of gasoline. Mobility is always key in any endeavor. Without mobility a people will quickly become demoralized.
I admire your commitment to the bit Humungus.
You nudge me to remember, a real game changer is the first time the US loses a carrier. That’s the dance we’re already doing in the red sea, trying to keep sea lanes open, and cover for the 51st state, without letting the Chinese know it’s go time in Taiwan. And if the houthis can threaten US naval vessels enough to constrain their freedom of movement, what can the Iranians bring to bear when the war goes total?
Thank you for your reply. About Iran. That is a big question Humungus would have to ponder, but without knowing Iran’s entire military arsenal, it would be a difficult outcome to predict. America was once a sleeping giant. Using like analogy, Iran is a sleeping cobra. You draw the cobra out, distract it, then move to kill while respecting its ability to harm you.
The standard tactic is, cut off the leadership command and control first, then command air superiority. Fuel is always key be it gasoline, diesel, nuclear. You take their ability to generate power, then they will fall.
>Temporary truce leading to UN administration of the Ukraine
That makes liittle sense. The Russians have to liberate all of the ukrainian province, currently invaded by the CIA.
As a side note Supreme Emperor Trump promised to end the war in one day. He was either blatantly lying, or he’s taking orders from his neocon owners.
Trump thought he had leverage. He may have been following the mainstream coverage of the war with ‘Biden has been holding back’ and ‘Ukraine can win’- under those assumptions threatening to go all in to get the Russians to agree to a deal is viable.
Since those are total nonsense, he has been left holding the bad and trying to find a solution that looks good. There isn’t one.
It should be obvious that the only way Trump could hypothetically end the war in “one day” is by a complete surrender of the US. That was the implicit promise. Now, Trump isn’t surrendering at all. So either he was lying during the campaign – quite possible – trump is just another politician, or maybe he sincerily wanted to do that, but like I said he’s just a neocon puppet and does what his owners tell him to do.
He is not a neocon puppet. Neocons are an important part of his coalition and he has to cater to them, but the worst neocons (Blinken and Nuland) have been purged, and the latest purge seems to have purged some more. Rather, the outrage coming from the left is that the remaining neocons are Trump puppets, and Laura Loomer is an agent of Russia.
That was obvious to us. But if you do a search for Ukraine war you will encounter a mountain of entirely absurd propaganda that Russia is about to collapse, and neocon conquest of Russia is imminent.
Russia long standing peace conditions remain a thought crime, that can only be spoken on blogs like this.
Russia stated its demands in the ultimatum it gave before invading. One of which was removal of the totalitarian terror regime imposed on the Ukraine. Very recently it has fleshed out this with the proposal for a UN controlled election in the Ukraine, which represents an escalation of Russia’s original 2022 demand. As the Ukrainian army continues to disappear, further escalations are likely.
But the neocons have been drinking their own Koolaide. They believe that Russia has been taught a lesson, and it has no choice but to back down from its original ultimatum. And it is still today a thought crime to conceive of anything different.
When one side issues an ultimatum, and war ensues, they usually either win or lose, and if they win, the usually losers have to accept a status quo worse than the original ultimatum.
And here we are. We can accept the Russian (modified) ultimatum, or continue. All the way to the “or else” — a desert between Nato and Russia.
Trump says a lot of stuff. The overpromise rhetoric is a standard part of his style. Everything is yuuuuuuge, the best, everybody loves it. No one takes this seriously. You’re talking about a man who has like gold bathroom fixtures in his hotels. Subtlety is not a concept here. He’s more of a “Go big or go home” kinda guy.
What I’m saying is, Trump didn’t mean that literally and he didn’t intend that anyone would take it literally.
Russia thinks the Russian plurality can win, because the recently created synthetic Ukrainian language and identity has been imposed with such brutality and casual cruelty by rather small minorities.
Maybe the Russians are drinking their own Koolaide, but the level of violence that has gone into the freshly created language and identity makes it somewhat plausible.
Maidan had to immediately implement a shockingly brutal totalitarian terror state in the Ukraine, which would suggest a serious lack of support. Of course shockingly brutal totalitarian terror is regrettably highly effective in manufacturing support, but on the other hand, losing a war tends to negate that.
When Germany lost World War I, the allies imposed an extraordinarily bad government on Germany which was obviously bitterly hostile to Germany and Germans, and the allies proceeded to behave extremely badly towards the government they had imposed and the people they had defeated, and yet that government for a long time got reasonable votes, and German Patriots did not, creating a vacuum that Hitler stepped into.
For a long time, Germans voted for the enemy winners, rather than the German losers. Because losing was is very very bad experience. So, if a genuinely free and fair election is held after the Ukraine has lost a war with Russia, members of the Russian speaking plurality are going to have the wind at their backs.