Ukraine begins to crumble.

The Ukraine begins to crumble. The Ukraine has about six months of war material left. There army has been severely depleted of men willing to fight. Zelensky has been ruling illegally since March 31, when the last constitutional fig leaf of paper pretence at democracy expired. The pool of potential conscripts is empty – they could easily lower the age of conscription to eighteen or to fifteen, but due to flight and failure to reproduce, that is not a substantial pool.

The death and injury rate among the men that have already been conscripted is horrendous, and is growing faster and faster.

On the other hand, Russian advances have been insignificant so far. A ditch, then a tree, then another ditch, then a house. Remember Bakhmut. That was quite a while ago, and Putin murdered the general who accomplished it, which is not good strategy. Today there is much excitement because the Russians have gained a small and shaky toehold in Chasov Yar. The centre of Chasov Yar is about ten kilometres from the centre of Bakhmut, and the Russian toehold about five kilometres from the western edge of Bakhmut, so it took the Russians all this time to advance five kilometres.

But this painfully slow rate of advance largely reflects Ukrainian strategy of sacrificing very large numbers of troops to hang on to very bad positions. They keep feeding enough troops into a killing field that the Russians cannot take it. So the Russians kill the men that are defending it, and the Ukrainians feed in more men. Ukrainian strategy seems single mindedly focused on what will look good in next week’s Washington power point presentation, and avoiding what will look bad in that presentation, rather than on winning the war.

A Ukrainian strategy aimed at winning the war would be to make Russians pay the highest possible price for their advances, and Ukrainians the lowest possible price for inflicting that high price, and then negotiate when the Russians got tired — it would mean a willingness to fall back from weak places. The entire Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive consisted of Ukrainians in weak places fighting Russians in strong places.

Washington loves its frozen conflicts, but the Ukrainians are paying an unpayable price to keep this conflict frozen.

I watched Kagan on Youtube lay out his plan for the Ukrainian Greatest Counter Offensive. (Or maybe it was his wife’s plan, or Blinken’s plan, but he seemed to think it was a great idea, and that he was a great military expert on warfare). Well I am not a great military expert on warfare, but I thought that the plan was idiotic, and that he was idiotic. Some time later I learned that the Pentagon also thought the plan idiotic, and the Ukraine’s top general thought the plan was idiotic. Nonetheless, the Ukrainians attempted to carry out the plan. Which tells you where the power is. The power is with people who have family reasons for wanting Ukrainians dead.

So, the question is, how long before the remaining part of the Ukrainian army just decides to vanish?


If the Ukraine was a real nation, their army would be only about half way to collapse, and they could probably continue the same way to 2026 or so. But I think Ukrainian patriotism is mostly fake. The Ukraine has never been a real nation, but a satrapy that empires fought over, not with. I say Ukrainian patriotism is fake and gay, that people say patriotic words because it is easier and safer, and in due course they will say pro-russian words, and scarcely notice the change. Their Ukrainian patriotic words are not really their words, they are Global American Empire words, and Global American Empire is falling.

We shall see if I am right.

Know your enemy, know yourself, win every battle. Know yourself but not the enemy, win some, lose some. Know neither the enemy nor yourself, lose every battle

The Global American Empire does not know itself nor the enemy. They cannot see that to the ordinary Russian in the street, this looks like the lead up to World War II with Nato as Wehrmacht, that fear of the west and the tyranny Russians suffered in the 1990s has remarkably united the naturally fissiparous Russian empire.

And similarly, they believe that Russians seek liberation from Putin, see him as a tyrant, and long to be liberated to Global American Empire rule and for peace by surrender. Hence the remarkably stupid US “Free Russian” invasion of Russia. They thought the oppressed Russian masses would rise up to join them for liberation. The Russians got some electronic devices from the bodies of the “Free Russians” — which recorded a mixture of Ukrainians speaking Ukrainian with Ukrainian accents, and Americans speaking English with American accents.

Our rulers believe their own economic statistics, such as 3.5 percent inflation and low unemployment, hence the disaster of economic sanctions against Russia, which in practice did far more harm to the American Empire than the Russian. All GDP statistics are fake, but Global American Empire GDP statistics are fake and gay. Hence American incapacity to support this war logistically. When America goes up against China, the disparity in economic capability is going to be far more extreme.

229 Responses to “Ukraine begins to crumble.”

    • jim says:

      Take the shill test described in the moderation policy

      • Hans from DE says:

        [*deleted*] your paranoia [*deleted*]

        • jim says:

          The inability of anyone complaining about “censorship” to pass the shill test reveals I am not being paranoid. You are posting from an FBI or Soros ngo office under a supervisor and HR.

          Anyone can pass the shill test described in the moderation policy and get white listed. Anyone can pass this, regardless of his religious or political beliefs, regardless of what issues he wants to speak about, anyone who is not reading from a script with a supervisor standing over him, can pass this.

          The trouble with people reading from a script is that they sound like they are engaging their interlocutor, but they refuse to notice their interlocutor’s position (since the man who wrote their script has no idea what we are thinking or saying). This results in the superficial appearance of conversation without the substance.

          I am doing the opposite of censorship. Censorship is suppressing certain ideas, inconvenient facts, and arguments. I am suppressing people who are unable to notice certain ideas, certain facts, and certain arguments.

          As I say in

          If you want two way narrowcasts, you need a means to keep out mass broadcasts, or else narrowcast memes sent by individuals to individuals will be drowned out by mass produced broadcast memes sent to everyone indiscriminately by large bureaucratic organizations.

          I am not banning you for what you say, but for what you are unable to say. I am banning you for who you are. Glownigger.

          • Jeff says:

            [*deleted*] show what you’re deleting. [*deleted*]

            • jim says:

              It does not matter what I am deleting, and no one cares. All of it is being deleted for what it does not say, not what it does say. Most of it is copypasta of things the real participants on this blog are saying, except that it is copypasta minus thought crimes, an effort to swerve the discussion away from what our rulers do not want anyone thinking or saying, an effort to create the appearance that the alt right totally accepts the official consensus of our rulers, except that we hate women, blacks, and Jews, and want to rape little girls.

              It is much the same stuff as all the real participants are saying, except for what it does not say.

              • Dharmicreality says:

                Now I wonder why these all these good honest chaps are so keen on the topic of censorship on your blog.

                Of course it is ridiculously easy for anybody to pass the shill test here. You need not even be a Christian. The woman test is the ultimate and best way to pass the test. Also the Soros test and the FBI tests are quite easy to pass for those not on their respective payrolls or posting under an anonymous Id with no HR catlady looking over their shoulders.

  1. Narayana says:

    In the event of videoconferencing, the participants shall wear a mask over the lower part of their face that conceals the shape of their mouth and jaw and a rigid hat like a fedora that conceals the shape of the upper part their head.

    Should also include unusual eyewear obscuring all orbital anatomy, maybe more so than anything else.

    • jim says:

      I don’t think so. I think the eyes vitally important for communication, unimportant for ID. But you could be right. Eyebrows are rather identifiable. Just have your hat pulled down far enough to cover most of the eyebrows, or at least disrupt their line.

      • Narayana says:

        Definitely not unimportant for ID and things might have changed since I was last acquainted with the cutting edge, but probably vital. But at some point streaming AI based filters will probably suffice to obscure everything of interest to the identifier without getting in the way of communication (though latency might be an issue?)

  2. Ryan says:

    This is a post about lynching. I’m not american, so it isn’t about niggers.

    My proposition is that in a healthy society, you and your neighbors must be ready and willing to lynch people. It’s great to have a functional formal justice system, where you nominate sensible members of the community to handle things, but they should not become a separate class. If people truly give up their right to enforce law and order, then people and institutions who have been entrusted to enforce the law will inevitably abuse their power. Qui custodiet and all that. It’s best if someone up the chain of authority punishes those beneath him, but if he fails the mob is the failsafe.

    You MUST lynch people who evade justice, like Leo Frank.
    You MUST lynch corrupt officials and those who betray the trust of their office.
    If you don’t, you are not a participant in society. You are a member of a subjugated tribe with no rights. You have no claim to justice, only the hope that your masters find you more useful than the other guy.

    • S says:

      ‘An armed man is a citizen, a disarmed man is a subject’, but generalized?

      • Ryan says:

        Fair summary.
        A big problem is that modern people think that their only responsibility is following the law and paying taxes. They leave maintaining culture, educating the next generation and enforcing behavioral norms and law and order to ‘officials’.
        I hope that someone who is prepared to lynch will be aware and willing to take the less extreme actions required to have a healthy society.

        • Karl says:

          Lynching is a collective activity. A man can participate, but not do it alone. A collective activitiy requires collaboration. Collaboration, especially in lethal violence, requires a common faith. What defines words like “justice” and “corrupt” is religion.

          The present state religion alread allows lynching, eg of whites during black lives matter riots. I expect it will soon allow or even require much more lynching, esentially of anyone not being suffiently progressive or not suffiecently dark.

          Modern people don’t think that their only responsibility is following the law and paying taxes. Any progressive will tell you that everybody has a responsibility to further progressive causes and to oppose anybody not sufficiently left.

          • Ryan says:

            Well yes, I meant that there is a modern strain of passivity which has become more and more prevalent among normal people. Leftists believe they have a duty to tear down society and many normies will enforce the moral norms of the dominant religion in limited ways.
            The enemy are far more prepared to kill and take lesser actions as you say, which is a huge advantage. Their evil and insanity will hopefully cause an implosion soon, but good and normal people need a faith and willingness to lynch to act as a social immune system.

  3. Fake Christian Bloggers says:

    None of you are Crusaders for Christ [*deleted*]

    • alf says:

      Pass the moderation policy before you tell us how you are more Christian than us.

      • jim says:

        In view of the ban on Easter, I amending the affirmation. It is, as I have repeatedly said, not intended for eternity, but for today’s entryists, who are always changing their colors. Intended for today’s enemies, and I have noticed a whole lot of people using the nice short one “Christ is King”, to great effect.

        So I affirm that Christ is King, born in Bethlehem, died at Jerusalem, and is, is from before the beginning of the world. Through him all things were created. Fully God and fully man. God is three and God is one.

        We shall see if “Fake Christian Bloggers” can say those words.

      • Randall says:

        [*deleted*] the lord taught against and never taught. [*deleted*]

        • jim says:

          I am sick of gays, Jews, demon worshipers, and gay Jewish demon worshipers telling Christians what Christianity is. Whosoever comments from the frame that he is more Christian than his interlocutor must first have affirmed that Christ is King, born in Bethlehem, died at Jerusalem, and is, is from before the beginning of the world. Through him all things were made. Fully God and fully man. God is three and God is one.

          You are at best a follower of hippy pacifist Jesus the Jewish community organizer, at worst a worshiper of the demon serpent Christ.

          I affirm that Christ is King, born in Bethlehem, died at Jerusalem, and is, is from before the beginning of the world. Through him all things were created. Fully God and fully man. God is three and God is one.

          Can you say those words? You fear you would catch on fire were you to say them. Maybe you would catch on fire.

          What does First Corinthians 6:9 and Leviticus 20:13 say about LGBTQIA++?

  4. Yul Bornhold says:

    New Russian FPS (video game):

    What’s interesting here is the player’s preparation for battle in the trailer. He looks at a picture of his wife and daughter (white Russians). Then he sets up an icon and crosses himself. I don’t know whether the game received state encouragement to include these details or whether the developers independently thought to depict the Russian warrior this way but the west would not depict a devout warrior as the player character (might show a pious brown Catholic as a quirky side character.)

  5. Anonymous Fake says:

    Between this and the “rape babies aren’t really babies” cucking on abortion, Republicans are looking for a legitimate loss. It’s weird how they question Biden’s election (well, it was weird), but never get suspicious about hard red states supposedly voting for abortion up to birth by double digits.

    They will lose and all Christians will leave the party, which will move further left because somehow it’s all the Christians’ fault, and if it mysteriously seems to get more votes from then on, well…

    • Alfred says:

      I don’t think it’s that bizarre really. As I recall Trump handily won a few of the states who rejected strict abortion bans. Not that those states have no fraud, but they don’t have the sort of fraud NY and CA do.

      My personal anecdotal experience is that many GOP voters are OK with limited abortion access. Not a value judgement, it’s just what I’ve noticed.

      But either way, this won’t cost him any appreciably number of the Christians. And if it does, woe to them for falling on their sword and letting the Democrats nationalize abortion access if they win again.

      • Anonymous Fake says:

        The Whig party thought they could consistently win 100% of the abolitionist vote by just “freeing one slave”, making them the controlled opposition to pro-slavery Democrats. It didn’t work out for them at all. Actually, it sounds a lot like the “if it saves just one life” reasoning behind Covid masks. It’s demon thinking.

        It’s a special combination of evil and stupid to think “some abortions” could ever beat “all abortions”. Christians as much as anyone who has any political sense know this. The Republicans are doing a controlled demolition in our faces.

        I’m guessing they’re just tired of Christian opposition to the war against Russia. Or genocides against Muslims. Or any genocides. They don’t realize that war has become very cheap in terms of industrial requirements, and very expensive in terms of labor. And we can’t even get the industry right.

        • jim says:

          The problem is not raped women aborting rapist babies. They don’t and they should. I am all in favor of eliminating bastards post birth if no man wants them around. The problem is wives aborting the babies of husbands who want children or want more children, women aborting the child of a man whom they conclude is a loser because he wants to marry her and start a family. There are lots of women hanging out with a man whom they regard as a temporary desperate expedient until they get the call that they expect from mister one in thirty.

          • Anonymous Fake says:

            I have an even better set of ideas. Abortion is murder, bastards deserve as much as an equal opportunity at meritocracy as anyone else, and women who create bastards pay for it. A “bastard tax” really has a nice ring to it.

            Fundamental Christian ideas.

            • jim says:


              The fundamental problem with bastards is that women who have bastards never pay for it. A man always does. Your solution presupposes that by nature men and women are equally capable and willing to be being independent. Obviously they are not. You attribute to Christianity the individualist and egalitarian pre-suppositions of the enlightenment. Christianity predates the enlightenment considerably.

              What you are proposing is not the Christian solution to bastards, but Libertarian solution to bastards. Which the Victorians tried with predictable results.

              The Christian solution has been to allow men to keep women under control, and not inquire too much about what happened when a bastard appears, and shortly thereafter dies a natural death, as most them did die until about the 1950s

              • Anonymous Fake says:

                The Victorians conquered a third of the world. [*endless repetition deleted yet again*]

                • jim says:

                  No they did not. The British East India Company founded under Charles the Second in 1660 conquered a third of the world. The Victorians took it over, started imposing progress on reluctant Indians, and started losing wars.By 1840, signs of decline in empire were obvious.

            • Contaminated NEET says:

              >bastard tax

              OK, but now Mom can’t afford good nutritious food, a house in a nice school district, and expensive extra-curricular sports for her poor little bastard. In fact, she couldn’t even afford that stuff before you imposed your cruel and vindictive tax on her. As you’ve already conceded, bastards deserve these nice things as much as anyone else (hell, probably more: we’ve got to make up for failing to provide them a father – that’s a big disadvantage in life that was foisted on the little bastard through no fault of his). Maybe instead this “bastard tax” should be on all those irresponsible Peter Pan men who didn’t man up and marry Mom in the first place, and we can use it buy these good things that the bastards need and deserve. Yeah, that sounds good, and it’s what we’re going to do. I’m not even a Christian, and look how much holier I am than you! And since I’m so generous and kind-spirited, I can run the Federal Department of Bastardy that pays this vitally needed support to all the little bastards’ moms. Doing well by doing good, that’s my motto.

              • Anonymous Fake says:


                • jim says:

                  As I said before, this is the libertarian solution to bastards: Demanding that women be responsible adults, strong, empowered, and all that.

                  Victorians tried it, does not work. I said that already, and you said that already. You are repeating yourself, and I am tired of repeating myself.

                  Men have a duty to look after women’s bodies, and therefore must have the right to control women’s bodies. The female demand to control their own bodies seems obviously reasonable and just, but it is not, because they are going to expect to be looked after, without regard to all this strong and independent rhetoric, which is just a shit test.

        • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

          >They don’t realize that war has become very cheap in terms of industrial requirements, and very expensive in terms of labor.

          By God in heaven, you are so stupid.

          • Pax Imperialis says:

            Playing devil’s advocate, Russia has proven it can massively out produce the entire West in artillery munitions for a very small fraction of the cost without total mobilization of their economy. Economies of scale, cheap energy, and automation has brought costs down so much day to day economic activity appears unaffected. It’s almost as if the West has a little 🤡 in the machine driving costs up. Considering how Ukraine is waging war, “labor costs” are indeed very high.

            On a more serious note, shouldn’t economic principles generally decrease the cost of war? Did GWOT cost so much because war is expensive or because rules of engagement prevented actual victory. The Philippines occupation was surely much less expensive.

            • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

              That’s the thing; all of those things represent reduction of labour via increase of ‘industrial requirement’.

              The primary limiting factor, as always, is organizational capacity.

            • skippy says:

              “On a more serious note, shouldn’t economic principles generally decrease the cost of war? ”

              If you travel widely you will see that in regions that are less developed, but not completely undeveloped, the economically leading countries have both higher salaries and a lower price level. This is also what one would rationally expect. These countries can do more with less.

              In the West, we have got used to everything being far more expensive than in less developed countries, something which is supposedly (increasingly, seemingly, not fully) compensated by our higher salaries. But the nominal salary level is set by printing, not the level of economic development, which suggests they are de-developing economies that are able to extract rents by their control of the financial system.

              Many people made that argument to me ten years, and ten years ago I believed it was false. Maybe it was false ten years ago. But today, we can clearly see that the price level of a shell is far lower in Russian than the money supply/”price level” differential, and the large number of shell contracts in which the price keeps being re-negotiated upwards without the delivery of any shells suggests that the price level of a shell in the West may be infinity.

        • The Cominator says:

          You aren’t Christian and should be put on moderation for saying you are.

          • jim says:

            He is on moderation. It has always been obvious that he is a shill. But I allow some of his stuff through. Most of his stuff just goes directly to the spam bucket.

            He thinks he is Christian. He is not flat out lying about it. He is wrong, but not just another demon worshiper. However his bubble is not Christian — he does not really know how mainstream Christians think. Some of his stuff gets through because he is less robotic and repetitious than most of the shills.

    • The Cominator says:

      Extreme abortion positions lose EVERY referendum, Trump is right about that.

      • jim says:

        Men are quietly in favor of quietly killing off bastards, post birth abortion if needful, but it should not be the woman’s choice. Women are disinclined to kill off the children of rapists, because they perceive rapists as strong. They are apt to kill off the children of men who want a wife and children, because they perceive such men as weak.

        • The Cominator says:

          Agree it shouldnt be the womans choice, it should also be done as an EARLY abortion…

    • yewotm8 says:

      The sensible position is not “pro-life”, it’s anti-choice. Women’s bodies are far too important for us to allow women’s brains to make decisions regarding them.

  6. Cloudswrest says:

    This looks pretty cool from a technical point of view. Video of an alleged “exo-atmospheric” (above the atmosphere) interception. I wonder how much those Arrow interceptors cost?

    • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

      The boosters alone weigh over a ton. We’re not talking cheap chalupas here.

    • A2 says:

      “the Intercept was likely conducted by the Israeli “Arrow 3” Hypersonic Surface-to-Air Missile System …”

      Does such a thing exist?

    • Epimetheus says:

      I’ve heard someone else suggest that’s the explosive ring detonating to separate the booster from the upper stage on the Arrow interceptor, not an actual interception. On the other hand, it does really resemble that rapidly-expanding-and-dissipating spherical shockwave the hard sci-fi nerds say would happen in space combat.

  7. Dr. Faust says:

    Drones launched from Yemen. Ostensibly Iranian drones toward Israel. The bastards actually did it. WW3 discussion goes here.

    • S says:

      Yemen has been launching against Israel since last year. What is different about this round of attacks?

    • A2 says:

      A bit of tit-for-tat from what it looks like, after the Israeli bombing of Iran’s consulate in Lebanon. (It’s almost like Israel is flailing about trying to draw more parties into the fight. However, Rishi chooses instead to blame Iran for ‘sowing chaos’.)

      No word on any dead or injured at all yet, as far as I can see. Spittle-flecked shouting about ‘unacceptable escalation’ from MI-6 though. Royal Navy is preparing for possible ‘Dunkirk’ style evacuation, which made me chuckle. But so far the attack seems symbolic.

      (All info from Daily Mail of today, btw.)

      • Dr. Faust says:

        It is a useful distraction for the GAE defeat in Ukraine and a signal that the WW2 frozen borders era is finished. The attack seemed intentionally telegraphed and symbolic but also has the potential to escalate further. Israel has declared they are going to retaliate despite Biden’s protest. So far Iran does not seem as incompetent as many believed. They achieved great optics, framed the attack under the “rules based order” of defense, made themselves appear as a reserved but legitimate threat. Israel’s response will not be so clean as that nation is completely unhinged from reality, will target undefended civilian areas intentionally and then broadcast images of dead children to incite hatred of themselves.

        • A2 says:

          True, nobody remembers Ukraine now. Last week’s news.

          Someone at another blog mentioned that this strike also serves two other purposes: first as a probe to make Israel show its cards, which it seems they did, and second, making them pay a bit for it.

          If the bill for last night was $1bn, as some claim, then the US tax payer can in principle finance this for many years without really sweating. A trillion here, a trillion there … However, I assume that here too supplies will be getting depleted after some time and the pipelines to make more are undersized.

          Meanwhile, Israel seems to realize the way the wind is blowing.

          “Middle East latest: Israeli president says ‘last thing region wants is war’ but will ‘defend its people’ after Iran attacks” Not in anger but in sorrow, etc.

          Even Biden doesn’t want to go to war with Iran so we shall see. And does this mean they will let up on all the killing of women and children in Gaza? (Well, perhaps not.)

          • jim says:

            The Ukraine is running mighty short of patriot ammo. Because there just is not much left in the Global American Empire. Now there is somewhat less left, and no one wants to let go of what ammo they have.

  8. Gman says:

    So, odds that Iran strikes Israel directly these couple of days? Odds of a full-scale Middle East war?

    • gman says:

      [*deleted*] Nato will keep [*deleted*] at any cost.

      • jim says:

        Nato cannot pay any cost. It cannot support the Ukraine war, the Red Sea war, and Gaza genocide all at the same time.

        • deleted says:

          Natto can pay one sub-major theatre, that’s it.
          West has temporarily rerouted around Red Sea.
          Israel can handle the Gaza question mostly on its own so long as it doesn’t piss off the Sunni’s or Pakistan.
          Natto West needs to decide, yesterday, if it’s going to give up West Dnieper and Odessa, to go make a 500 year lease on the Suez.
          It can’t do both without pulling rabbits.
          And absolutely not if it expects to keep Taiwan’s fabs and other exports.

          • jim says:

            > Israel can handle the Gaza question mostly on its own so long as it doesn’t piss off the Sunni’s or Pakistan.

            But Israel not handling it on its own. It is seriously draining down what little remains of Nato artillery, shells, rockets, and drones, it is pissing of the Sunnis, and it has seriously pissed off Iran.

            > Nato West needs to decide, yesterday, if it’s going to give up West Dnieper and Odessa, to go make a 500 year lease on the Suez.
            It can’t do both

            The way the wind blows, it cannot do either one.

            • FrankNorman says:

              Iran and Israel have been “pissed off” at each other for a long time.
              Israel’s latest recklessness just gives the Iranians a legitimate excuse for the attitude towards Israel that they already had.

              • jim says:

                Iran does not really want to support Hamas and the Palestinians, because Hamas and the Palestinians have a remarkable talent for pissing off friends and allies. (They took the Global American Empire side in the Syrian civil war, which probably seemed to them like a wise act of pragmatic realpolitic at the time, since they were and are largely funded by America and Israel — probably funded rather less by Israel right now — and, at the time, everyone knew and agreed that the side backed by the Global American Empire always wins, and they wanted to be on the winning side.)

                But under current circumstances, Iran is likely a whole lot more pissed by Israel than by the Palestinians.

            • The Cominator says:

              RE the Sunnis seems like they still hate the Persians more than the Jews, reports are all Arab countries are shooting at anything coming out of Iranian airspace towards Israel. Israels problem is having a gay parade not any kind of muslim unity against it.

        • Cataclysm Reawake says:

          It may try nonetheless, in which case there will never again be a better opportunity for the Dragon to devour its little brother. GAE’s force projection grows feebler with each passing year, true, but China has a demographic deadline of its own to be mindful of.

      • jim says:

        If you want your stuff to get through unmolested, ip, don’t use the username of an existing commenter (the cat will tell on you) take the shill test, and get whitelisted

        Exposing your IP because using the username of an existing whitelisted commenter really pissed me off.

        Your payload was that Nato will win, and can go to war without actually having to fight, because everyone knows it is going to win. The awesome economic might of the USA guarantees that any challenger will just quietly make himself scarce. This is the Macrone theory. Does not look too promising.

        • Vendat Tunicam says:

          He may have moved and forgotten his fake email address. This has happened to me before, I can go a long time between comments, years sometimes.

          • jim says:

            The comment presupposed an obvious shill payload, and swerved the comment that it was ostensibly responding to, presupposing that the original commenter to whom the shill was ostensibly replying agreed with things it is most unlikely that anyone actually believes.

            Thread derailment typical of enemy action.

  9. dharmicreality says:

    Opinion polls published by major media houses in India over the last few months and even recently suggest that Narendra Modi is likely to come back even stronger in 2024 than he did in 2019.

    Surprising even the more GAE aligned media are somewhat reluctantly conceding that Modi will win, though they predict a much smaller margin of victory.

    This is interesting in itself because it shows that the GAE and their clients in India are likely too preoccupied with other problems to control the media narrative here to prepare for any kind of steal because in a free and fair election Modi is going to win big. Moreover, I doubt that the GAE has anywhere near the kind of resources necessary to carry on election fraud at such a massive level in India, given the BJP’s control over most states here and the Election Commission being a fairly neutral body.

    Can India maintain any normal ties with the West going forward if Modi returns, considering the kind of criticism they’ve subjected India to recently regarding our so-called lack of religious and political freedom? Of course, Putin will welcome Modi’s return far more warmly than any leader in the West.

    Meanwhile Russia is interested in getting more Indian students studying in Russia.

    Maybe the GAE at present doesn’t think India is worth having as an ally or client.

    • jim says:

      > Maybe the GAE at present doesn’t think India is worth having as an ally or client.

      It is enraged by allies, demanding that they be clients. Leftism grows ever more imperial.

      • Dharmicreality says:

        Isn’t the Left that still wants empire less insane than the Left that wants everything to burn? Because seems that that the ruling faction of the GAE is still in normality bias, thinking that Empire is going strong as usual, Russia and China will be defeated soon and that allies are eager to be client states, adopting the globohomo religion unanimously and spontaneously.

        • jim says:

          True. Maybe the imperial left will take us to nukes, maybe they will brushed aside by the burn-it-all-down left.

          The imperial left are largely old people. The burn-it-all-down left are considerably younger, so if America survives that long, their time will come. Or, quite likely, the failure of the imperial left will result in the burn-it-all-down left brushing aside the imperial left, and focusing on destroying America, rather than Ukraine

          • Mister Grumpus says:

            The imperial left sure seem to be held back by normalcy bias around the primacy of being able to pay for things, and the need to logistically achieve things, in real life, against self-aware opponents.

            The bugnuts left are smarter than this, in their killer beehive way. They know that you actually CAN print a bazillion dollars, and the solution to the problems that come with that are to genocide the detractors and liabilities. The takeover and consolidation of power in Zimbabwe WORKED. It worked. They succeeded.

            Only Americans aren’t allowed to fight back against DC. Much easier and juicier apples there.

            • Calvin says:

              Zimbabwe worked, to the extent that it did, because it continuously got support from the GAE. Who the fuck is going to bail out the GAE itself when it has alienated every other power bloc in the world?

        • Sher Singh says:

          Can India maintain any normal ties with the West going forward if Modi returns

          Will India even need the West after 5 years of Modi & 15 of Yogi Adityanath?

          The opposition is insane lol.

  10. S says:

    So the prediction of motorcycle troops is getting tested, but sideways (the Russians are using them to get across open ground).

    Also seen- combat robots on treads (instead of flying)- I guess the recoil of rifles is too much otherwise, but it doesn’t seem to be a step forward since they are as vulnerable as human grunts to artillery fire.

    • jim says:

      Combat robots, however, are more expendable than grunts. You send them to where you are going to send grunts, and if they survive, the grunts follow.

  11. Calvin says:

    Honestly the most confusing bit of this has to be that nobody’s tried to frag Zelensky yet. I mean, honestly, what has the ordinary soldier to lose at this point?

    • jo blo says:

      Zelensky has a lot of dirt on western politicians, they got involved with him for graft and now blackmail keeps them shoveling money. His biggest fear should be what they will do to keep his mouth shut in the aftermath. They are not “agreement capable” , can’t be trusted.

      Putin (whose mainl enemy is NATO/ US (D)irtbag leaders) should sow distrust among his enemies by offering Zelensky and his pals a safe refuge in Russia in return for ratting out the (D)irtbags who suckered Z into destroying Ukraine. Crooks are not much prone to trust other crooks, Z has ample motive to hate them and deflect blame from himself.

      Putin could save a lot of blood and treasure, and strike a mighty blow against the (D)irtbags in a way that would preclude further talk of nuclear war. This offer would strike right at a vulnerable point, and make further escalation by the (Dirtbags look like the cover-up that it is. )And Zelensky might even live long enough to tell his tale – I think his best bet to live longer than a few more months would be to trust Putin more than US/NATO.

      • jo blo says:

        I believe the main source of the destruction coming our way is # 5: “They are feral, blindly following ancient instincts from prehistoric times, which instincts tell them to cruise for rape by alpha male Chads, and to resist kicking-and-screaming all attempts to restrain them from pursuing alpha male Chads. Stable monogamy has always been a way to allow each man to own a woman so each man can start a family and raise a future generation for civilization’s survival. If women are emancipated, Miss Average will waste her youth, her beauty, and her fertility fucking Mister One in Thirty, thus a people, a race, a nation, a faith, or an empire that emancipates women will perish for lack of families, leading to lack of sons. Men have to impose stable monogamy on women with a stick.”

        also, accusing people of racism for preferring to keep “others (blacks)” out of our society ignores eons of evolutionary common sense, and is iinfuriating stupidification of any attempt to have reasoned debate – another great example is “greenhouse gases”, because greenhouses without roofs don’t hold any heat / CONVECTION easily lofts warm air to airliner height where sparse, dry air is always very cold because there is very little to prevent RADIATION to space from that level.

    • jim says:

      Pretty sure they do not let ordinary soldiers get within one hundred kilometres of Zelensky.

      • jo blo says:

        I’m sure his life would be pretty short if he did let ordinary Ukrainians near him.

        I think his worst hazard is from the US politicians / CIA wanting to silence him.

  12. I don’t really care who wins the Russia/Ukraine war, but I am rooting for Russia, because I want Biden (and whatever Obama is controlling him) to lose. I want them to lose big, have their grift exposed, and suffer.

    • Upravda says:

      Same here.

      Don’t have anything against Ukes. People, not (((rulers))). Not being particular fan of any empire, so also not of Russian empire.

      However, I root for total and humiliating defeat of EU, as an Empire of Lies and Death. Hoping that proxies, currently Ukes, will not suffer too much.

      It will also be interesting to see would it be more expendables such as Ukes. It seems to me that globo-homo hoped for Poles and other eastern Europeans, but their best shot for that role are just puny Moldovans.

  13. Rhocoin says:

    I used blog search box for “rhocoin” but nothing, so I post it here.

    On reaction site it says rhocoin is a proposed good solution to some cryptocurrency.

    1) what is status of rhocoin?
    2) where is a onepage overview of design, feature, metrics, and capabilities?
    3) when will full protocol whitepaper be published?
    4) where is repository for people to get started?
    5) when is expected launch date of reference implement?


    • jim says:

      Good questions.

      It is, alas, not even that ready.

      The link you are looking for is

      There are megabytes of additional material, but it is not ready for the public yet. I start documentation faster than I finish it.

      • Rhocoin says:

        the average coin protocol documentation paper is nowhere near megabyte text, certainly not “megabytes (plural)”. even reference implement code is rarely really barely that size raw.

        2/3.a) are you perhaps referring here to more reaction site content in general, not rhocoin docs?
        2/3.b) if you are referring to rhocoin docs, what can the makeup to “megabytes” of text actually be about?

        6) given “not even that ready” status on 1 through 5, are there active work units being applied to move 1~5 forward?
        like a workplan steps being executed, by how many people, or how many days on it per month?

        i want to find and follow coins that both look promising regarding 2, and that are actively progressing to reach 5 within 0-4 years.

        i can read papers on 2/3 to evaluate for me, and try compiling and running, and see which are maybe fitting into cryptospace nicely.

        it is a restarting hobby project after many years.

        so if you guys can also point me to other promising quality existing, or future coins in progress, to look at, that would be good 🙂 i can do gpg if need.

        i’m really only interested in L1’s, and DEX softwares, because everything future will ride on them, so they must be solid ideas, and will have the most longterm decade+ value, life, and profit because of that.


        • jim says:

          Metcalfe’s law means that there can only be one.

          Only crypto currencies that are significantly different from bitcoin matter, because Metcalfe’s law means all the me-too coins are going to die.

          There can only be one. For a little while, it looked like Ethereum was going to be the one, because it had contracts and Bitcoin did not. But now Bitcoin has contracts, and Ethereum, the ten thousand coins on the Ethereum blockchain, the thousand Ethereum knockoffs, and the numerous Bitcoin knockoffs, are slowly dying under Metcalfe’s law.

          If a coin wants to be in the same business as Bitcoin it has to be a Bitcoin killer, as Ethereum seemed like it could be for a while. And that is a high bar to jump. A lot of very well funded foundations have tried and failed.

          Then there are the DAO coins. DAO coins are really shares in a corporation, (if they are any good) but they tend to be scams or hippy dippy participatory democracy corporations. I am not aware of any efforts to seriously consciously and intentionally implement the corporate form on the block chain, though I am sure they secretly exist, and DAOs that are successful tend to wind up emulating the corporate form de-facto while pretending they are something different. So, with a DAO coin you have to evaluate it like any other business. Bet on the man, but most DAOs are organised to hide the CEO, and hide the fact there is a CEO (because he would likely be arrested if identified. We need Daos with a privacy coin so that they can have a pseudonymous CEO, a pseudonymous board, and real company bookkeeping. Existing Dao coins (those few of them that are not obvious scams) are difficult to evaluate. For investors to invest, they need company books, a CEO, and a board. Who, if the DAO is implemented over a blockchain subject to blockchain analysis, would promptly be arrested.

          It is hard to knowledgeably invest in a DAO unless you are an insider in that DAO.

          Then there are privacy coins. Monero and modern Litecoin occupy the privacy niche, where Bitcoin cannot compete. But there is still only room for one privacy coin, and Litecoin is now a better privacy coin than Monero.

          Litecoin originally targeted the transaction-for-goods-and services niche, but when transactions fees were low, could not compete with Bitcoin due to Metcalfe’s law even though it was substantially better than Bitcoin for the transaction niche. It was reinvigorated by high transaction fees, but the transaction niche for goods and services is being killed off by Lightning. So it went into the privacy space, where Bitcoin cannot kill it, unless Bitcoin implements a privacy mechanism.

          Litecoin is a potential Bitcoin killer, because, unlike Monero, it can do everything Bitcoin can do, plus privacy. But the way the wind blows, it is not getting out of the privacy niche, plus what little remains of the transaction niche.

          Any potential Bitcoin killer has to have a fix for the scaling problem, and it has to find a niche where Metcalfe’s law will not kill it, and then it has to expand out of that niche. So it has to provide something that Bitcoin does not provide, which is likely to appeal to a reasonable number of users. If Litecoin was to expand out of its privacy plus transaction niche, it would soon run into the same scaling problems as Bitcoin, so it cannot rely on its low fee and fast transaction advantage. And outside of its niches, it has no advantage over Bitcoin, so though its niche guarantees it will survive and prosper, its chances of expanding out that niche are weak.

          To expand beyond its niche, would need a substantially better Lightning than Bitcoin lightning, plus a social net capability, akin to Bitcoin lightning’s Nostr, but better integrated with the currency. Litecoin’s lighning network sucks. Particl and Basic-Swap are attempting this strategy, but they suck. And their social net architecture sucks. They cloned the code of Bittorrent, which sucks. Building decent social net software is a big and expensive job. Building on the Bitmessage architecture was the right choice, but building on its codebase was not, it was just the quickest way, the only way the could get something running in reasonably short time.

          Litecoin has the potential to be a Bitcoin killer, because it can do everything Bitcoin does, plus privacy, but its lightning network is crap compared to Bitcoin’s, its privacy social net is missing no end of features and cannot compete with Bitcoin’s Nostr non privacy social net — which is also missing many essential features, but has more absolutely essential features than the particl-basicswap net. For litecoin to become the one, has to be a better coin in ways that matter outside its privacy and small transaction niche, and it is not.

          • Alfonse says:

            > Bitcoin killer

            Speaking of killers and things…

            Much of the world has fallen into dire problems, especially the West.
            Money corrupted, faith dropped, life easier and more idle since industrial age.
            Now phones and fent are taking peoples souls.
            And once great cultures are being now completely sullied from imported and manufactured diversity.

            But one biggie has been continued deeper corruption of politicians, banks, etc… and now they all blended into GloboHomo, WEF, and so on.

            In olden days, the populace would simply rise up and SLAUGHTER all the corrupt evil Politicians, problem solved. This was and is the correct way to dispense with such evil.
            But Nowdays people are simply too cowardly to do that, and the GlowNiggers the Pols employ are widespread and pernicious which makes doing that even harder.

            so really the only way youre going to kill these pols, is to starve them out of money resources, based on your own human greed that once you get real money back in your greedy little hands, you’ll never give it to them. and unlike the GlowNiggers, you have the advantage there because the Pols don’t have a real job and don’t know how to do actual work to survive. So they’ll die twice as fast, and twice as hard.

            problem is, there’s no real money out there yet to do that with.

            and until one is created, the Pols will continue to have the upper hand over you.

            no amount of global whining and talking on internet and websites and blogs and forums will change that, because you’re all to cowardly to rise up off the couch and kill them.

            so the only option left is to fulfill it from the other human base… greed for money.

            if rhocoin is real money, then do it.

            if not, then go support and work on whatever looks closest to being a real money.

            because time is running out, these global fucks have gone non-linear in their speed and capabilities to enslave and control you.

            do the act of crypto… code, adopt, use… starve them fucking Pols out with it.

            • Mayflower Sperg says:

              I’d rather have good pussy than good money. Does good money buy good pussy? Whatever sort of money Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos have, it does not buy them good pussy.

              • DonRu says:

                Gates is a Globalist Faggot, a pedophile, a psycho-sick fuck, and a closed-source dirtbag.

                Bezos actually has some pussy right now, it’s kindof sleazy old botox looking pussy, but it’s apparently what he wants from among that crowd.

                Good money does buy good pussy, or at least can help make it happen… whether for the night, month, year, or life.

                But since the cabal at the top of the planet and every country is robbing everyone with Fiat money, you don’t have even that shitty money to try buying pussy with. Slavement of the people by any other name.

                When you kill all the evil shit at the top of the world that’s been distorting all the pussy, the pussy will start becoming good pussy that follows Man again.

                And with all of the nasty Globo and Politicians dead, some form of real money could fill the Fiat void.

                So yeah, a real coin that actually works P2P and private, needs to be figured out and launched as soon as it looks like the design will work and scale to a hundred years of a billion users.

                Kindof looking forward to it, because whatever coin ends up having those “Killer” properties, it’s going to have the same decade of massive profits that Bitcoin had. And will actually be in use therein and thereafter, P2P globally. It will feel like the early days of Bitcoin usage, forever.

                If it’s already out there, or you know which one it will be, let us know 🙂

                • jim says:

                  Money helps if you know how to use it to project status in a way that pussy can read. This is not easy. Trump knows how to do it, Bezos does not.

                • Mayflower Sperg says:

                  Yeah, only Trump could point to a homeless wino and ask, “How does it feel to know that that bum is fifty million dollars richer than your husband?”

                • jim says:

                  Pretty sure he never said that.

        • jim says:

          > the average coin protocol documentation paper is nowhere near megabyte text, certainly not “megabytes (plural)

$ du -h .
          664K ./setup
          52K ./pandoc_templates
          4.6M ./names
          156K ./design/multicolumn_and_button_example
          3.6M ./design
          1.1M ./manifesto
          28K ./notes
          20K ./libraries/pandoc_templates
          1.4M ./libraries
          32K ./rootDocs
          992K ./images
          51M .

          Albeit a lot of it is that docs appear twice, once as markdown, and once as compiled into html, plus a lot of redundant older versions and obsoleted versions. And most of it is inaccessible from the web, because I have not provided the links to unfinished and unready documents, so the real size is a lot smaller than 51 Megabytes, but pretty sure it is a least a few megabytes.

          • Rhocoin says:

            I have a bookmark category for prospective coins that, be they of note for inquiry, are seemingly also idle / defunct, with no particularly progressing roadmap / eta, or not really any repo or other work access point.

            Given the supplied stage and status of Rhocoin, I’ll probably use that category and check back for progress on a 6-12 month (and then falling off) basis.

            I encourage everyone, coinworld moves fast, so if people have ideas, they should be posting widely for a team, getting a whitepaper out there, a repo up, and coding them into production 🙂

            I will post again later.

  14. Humungus says:

    Humungus sends greetings…

    Ukraine crumbling marks the beginning of the end for the Anal Empire. When it falls, we shall be free to take what is ours. Be ready.

    • MuskFan says:

      All hail the Great Humungus!

    • Humungus says:

      The Evil Empire can no longer sustain itself and must make war to distract from its failings. It can no longer fight a war though due to a hollowed out military of sodomites.

      As they fall, we shall rise. It is now within our grasp. Each conflict is but one piece of the puzzle. They are falling because they have no foundation.

      We will build on a foundation of iron and steel. Only the strong will be allowed to live. Weakness must pass away!

      The strong shall ride eternal, shiny and chrome!

      Until that day, Humungus wishes you well. Prepare yourself mind and body.

      • jim says:

        > The strong shall ride eternal, shiny and chrome!

        When that faith confronted King Alfred’s faith, after three hundred years of Mad Max chaos, that faith lost.

        • Humungus says:

          Humungus believes in Christ the King who shall return as a warrior on a white horse, eyes enraged, and all the warriors in heaven with him.

          Humungus prays for that day, that he may ride beside them destroying the wicked.

          That day is coming soon.

        • Calvin says:

          > And when Christianity confronted globohomo, Christianity lost. So, perhaps something new is needed.

          [*Oops, I accidentally edited your comment away, thinking I was editing my own comment. Please resubmit*]

          • jim says:

            Christianity never confronted Globohomo. First came postChristianity, then came Globohomo. Christianity became Globohomo.

            The rhetoric was “I am more Christian than thou because evil lecherous men are making women engage in sex, and I want to do something about oppression of women, blacks, colonized peoples, and so forth.” So, the first step to ensuring women were more virtuous and they already were was to remove all adverse consequences from female sexual misconduct (since such misconduct was all the fault of men). And thus we got Victorianism, which naturally resulted in vast numbers of women giving birth to bastards in muddy alleys in the rain. Oh dear, men are not stepping up to the plate by marrying those sluts, so daddy government has to do something about those poor victimized children (Because I am more Christian than thou). So, in Victorian times, Mummy and Daddy government stepped in to replace horrible patriarchal oppressive fathers, who were mysteriously absent once all restraints on female sexual misconduct had been removed. Odd, that.

            The underlying theory of Victorian post Christiany, apart from quietly demoting Christ, was that women naturally have no interest in sex, therefore any and all attack on male authority over wives and children is the more Christian than thou promotion of chastity. Further, any adverse consequences of female sexual misconduct are actually male tools to force women to engage in sex (which otherwise women, being naturally chaste and pure, would never do.)

            This theory became absurd when good cameras were invented, so they came up, in the early nineteen hundreds, shortly before World War One, with a brand new theory. Which new theory demoted Christ considerably further, and also led to the conclusion that any adverse consequences of female misconduct were the fault of men, who needed to be punished. Until 1950 or so, these people were still telling us that they were more Christian than we are.

            • Calvin says:

              If that’s the argument that you want to make, that’s even worse because there’s nothing that keeps that from just happening all over again the moment the moment the hypothetical based Christian regime takes power. By your take Christians found “I am more Christian than thou” believable and handed over all power to proto-globohomo. Everything about actually existing Christianity suggests they would just do it again.

              • jim says:

                This problem has been present for sixteen centuries, and has had known solutions for two millenia.

                As soon as Christianity becomes the state religion, it gets a large supply of gravy, and evil people want that gravy. So the hostile entryism problem that Christianity suffered from from the beginning (Simon the Magician, the Nicolaitans) becomes ten times worse. So you just have to be vigilant against hostile entryism. We have two millennia of social technology for keeping hostile entryists out.

                It is an ancient problem, for which there are ancient solutions.

                • Calvin says:

                  And that social technology failed. Like, everywhere. All at once. Repeating the same experiment will lead to the same outcome, a globohomo 2.0 if you will, at best a little while down the line. But I don’t think Christianity will have that second chance, in the same way the old religion of Rome didn’t. Its time, imo, has come and gone.

                • jim says:

                  > And that social technology failed. Like, everywhere. All at once.

                  There are some very fat history books detailing what happened and no end of right wing intellectuals from centuries ago decrying what was under way. Your account of what happened is wildly inaccurate. For starters, not everywhere, and certainly not all at once. The story runs from 1639 to 1832. And then, postChristianity being established in America and England, it gets imposed on the world.

                  History rhymes, but seldom repeats, because when it starts to repeat people see where it is going and head it off at the pass.

                  The particular details and circumstances that led to that particular failure have long since ceased to be relevant. Doubtless Christianity can find new ways to fail, as yet unforeseen, but it is certainly not going to recapitulate that particular failure in that particular way.

                  The underlying forces behind that failure have been present for millennia, manifesting in different ways for millennia with different results and different countermeasures in different centuries. And, on the whole, Christianity has been reasonably successful in dealing with the problem. Quite a lot of failures, over millenia, and quite a lot of successes. Generally Christianity learns from past failures, and then finds new ways of failing. Just as every happy family is alike, and all unhappy families are different, there a lot of failure modes, but you are more likely to fail in a new way than an old way, because blindsided.

                  It simply does not happen that Christianity fails in the same way twice, though to what extent this is the result of learning from experience, and to what extent this is the result of the fact that there are so many different ways to fail, is debatable.

                  There are a lot of analogies and similarities between Nicolaism and Globohomo, and a lot of similarities between Donatism and Brownism, the same processes at work, but a lot of important differences also. Just not the same thing. Should Christianity fail again, this time it will not look like Brownism and Socinianism. Those ideologies were superseded by their demonic descendants, and because of their horrifying offspring, can never be revived.

                  The next time around, the new lot of hostile entryists are going make themselves look as different as possible from the last lot of hostile entryists.

                • skippy says:

                  Countries that remained Christian the longest got the benefit from it until feminism ate every religion everywhere. Countries that remained Christian into the 1900s have much larger populations today, relative to the great powers, than they did in the 1800s. Today, there is no much effective difference between countries that have a veneer of Christianity and countries that explicitly reject it.

                • Zorost says:

                  Much of the problems of the past 2,000 years could be averted or greatly ameliorated simply by openly stating and enforcing ethnic homogeneity. Especially in keeping out a certain tribe of Levantine merchants.

                  From that starting point, everything becomes much easier.

                • FrankNorman says:

                  “Much of the problems of the past 2,000 years could be averted or greatly ameliorated simply by openly stating and enforcing ethnic homogeneity. Especially in keeping out a certain tribe of Levantine merchants.”

                  That approach only takes one so far. Even an entirely ethnically homogenous society will still have to deal with problems caused simply by fallen human nature.

                  Look at the history of England during the centuries in which all Jews were banned from the island if you don’t believe this. All sorts of “interesting times” – and not a Levantine merchant in sight.

                • The Cominator says:

                  “Much of the problems of the past 2,000 years could be averted or greatly ameliorated simply by openly stating and enforcing ethnic homogeneity. Especially in keeping out a certain tribe of Levantine merchants.”

                  And once again they are disproportionately leftist and feel apart from the mainstream of societies they inhabit but they are neither conspiracy or hive mind. Fauci was 100% a Jesuit as was Weishaupt, the Jesuits have always been glowniggers, humanism was the original leftism if there is a grand conspiracy it is them not the tribe of Levantine merchants. Even in left wing western countries Jeets (unlike echoes the average Jeet does deeply hate you) are rapidly becoming a much much greater problem than echoes ever were.

    • Zorost says:

      Unfortunately when it falls there will still be existing powers to vie for control. This won’t be Mad Max (which has never happened in recorded history), but rather a War of Succession between existing powers. Fall of Rome didn’t lead to anarchy, it lead to local regions becoming sovereign. Fall of USSR didn’t lead to anarchy, it lead to ethnic republics leaving, and in Moscow there was a change of job titles but mostly the same types of people stayed in power.

      Who will be the Diadochi of the coming Succession War? Existing governors, generals, militia leaders, state party leaders, etc. Not individuals sharing opinions on the internet, or individuals with a basement full of ammo. Teams.

      • Humungus says:


        There will always be a place for warlords and their tribes. We shall live off the resources of a dying empire. An empire that should have never been. We will gather the women for ourselves. They will become the vessels for a future generation of superior men and women. The weak will be plundered. It is the way of things.

        • jim says:

          If you have larger scale cooperation than your adversaries, conquest is easy. The hard problem is not war, but extended cooperation and trust.

        • Zorost says:

          I mostly agree.

          My main point of disagreement is your implication that normal people of today will be the warlords of tomorrow. Instead, it will be those who command armed men today who will be the warlords of tomorrow.

          When shit is falling apart, cannibalism in the streets, smoke rising over the cities, etc. people aren’t going to be asking about a leaders ideological and moral philosophy, or what religion they are. Any who can make a credible promise of safety will acquire subjects willing to trade away all freedom. The only ones who will be able to promise such are those who command armed men at the time of crisis.

          Also, this point in time may be a century in the future, or even far longer. The USSR started from a much worse point than USA 2024, and they still took almost a century to give up the ghost. Currently we have no ethnic republics or organizations of our own, so we’ll just be the peasants in whatever is to come. Assuming anything we’d recognize as human still exists after 100+ years of a global USSR.

      • jim says:

        > This won’t be Mad Max (which has never happened in recorded history),

        Mad Max happens quite regularly, for example three centuries of England after the fall of the Roman Empire. They had Kinglets who ruled kingdoms the size of large farms, who usually died violent deaths, and whose kingdoms tended to disappear with them. They occasionally had empires that lasted a year or two. Similarly, the fall of Bronze Age civilization.

        From about 1830 to roughly 1850, South America was fairly Mad Max.

        The Mad Max environment is that mobile banditry dominates stationary banditry, because the stationary bandit’s forces are unable to cohere.

        If a bandit’s forces are able to cohere, he usually settles down pretty quickly to stationary banditry, and the Mad Max environment is quelled by the stationary bandit. But cohesion is a non trivial problem.

        • Fidelis says:

          History is riddled with so many cases of weak government by roving gangs of loosely united warriors, one must only assume he means the literal setting of Mad Max has never existed before.

        • Zorost says:

          I define “mad max collapse” as a collapse such that existing government and rulers are swept away to make way for completely new forms and leaders. e.g., Bartertown. I define it as such because this is how those who claim MM will happen use the term; if not defined this way, their predictions of the future are meaningless. Something happens, all the Bad people and Bad government disappear, and now I can ignore all rules and obstacles to implement my particular Vision of the Future.

          I also use the word “recorded history” intentionally, as a few times that might qualify as MM aren’t actually recorded history. Post-Rome Britain, for example, has almost no written records. Most of the written records that are used are often from long afterwards, and are extremely problematic. Another such period is the Levant post- Sea Peoples. Even this can be debated whether it is MM or not, as this no-records period lasted a couple centuries or so, then the surviving super powers of Egypt and Assyria re-asserted themselves with little effort and the area once again came under imperial rulership.

          Anyway, what is relevant about P-R Brit is that those kinglets weren’t the citizens of before, but rather existing local rulers and land owners. Which is my real point. If we aren’t existing powers at the time of the break, odds are we aren’t going to be the powers after the break. That is nothing but a cope, preying upon peoples’ love of believing everything will turn out alright if they just keep on doing what they have been doing.

          For example, war leader Ambrosius Aurelianus is stated by Gildas as having parents “who had worn the purple”, meaning they were Roman aristocrats of some sort.

          • jim says:

            > I define “mad max collapse” as a collapse such that existing government and rulers are swept away to make way for completely new forms and leaders. e.g., Bartertown

            Happens all the time. Barterown is uncommon, though far from rare, but the total disappearance of the old elite is routine. Often many in the new elite have some blood connection to the old, but no connection through office or property. Like Augustus Caesar and William the Marshal, they had to start from nothing.

            • jim says:

              > those kinglets weren’t the citizens of before, but rather existing local rulers and land owners.

              The entire post roman elite perished in England.

              A state and an army derives it cohesion from a faith. Our officially unofficial faith is dying. A new faith, or a very old one, will replace it, and the elite of the our currently officially unofficial faith will be completely replaced by an elite of a new, or ancient, faith.

              The new elites are generally children of old elites, for the apple does not fall far from the tree, but they did not receive their power from the no longer existent government apparatus. They were not existing government officials. Consider the rise of William the Bastard and William the Marshal. A whole lot of rapid social mobility in the form envisaged by our comedian Humungus happened. William the Marshal became the Marshal due to a sword like lightning, right out of Humungus’ fantasies. He started out with nothing except the training in combat his father had given him. And the history of William the Marshal is known, because he operated during the transition from mobile banditry to stationary banditry. Things had been a whole lot more chaotic earlier.

              William, later William the Marshal, was a son of an elite, but his father was dead, and his father’s properties had been taken. He acquired new properties, much in the way Humungus fantasizes.

              Similarly, if you trace property titles in Latin America, they seldom go back very far, and none of them go back to before Bolivar. From time to time, governments and elites simply vanish. Sometimes they are replaced by a completely new government and elite without much connection to the old, sometimes they disappear and nothing immediately replaces them, which is what happened to a whole lot of Chinese dynasties. The collapse of Global American Empire may well wind up resembling the collapse of the Qin. A short period of chaos, followed by new men operating a new system. Or possibly, as Humungus fantasizes, a long period of chaos, as has regularly happened in Chinese history.

              Governments and governing elites simply disappear with great regularity. Sometimes their replacements have extensive connection with the old. Sometimes, often, there is no connection by office, property, or title. Always there is some blood connection, as with William the Marshal, but that is because the apple does not fall far from the tree, not because they had power and office in the old system. Sometimes they disappear and no replacement appears for some considerable time, as Humungus fantasizes.

              Reflect on the rise of Caesar Augustus. Kin of Julius Caesar, but no state position, no office, and for a little while, no money — his inheritance from Julius Caesar got frozen. He walked into a military base and took charge on the basis of his adoptive father’s name and his personal charisma. He had no military rank, no government office, no formal military experience, though he probably learned a lot hanging out with Julius Caesar, and no money. His real inheritance was that charisma, war, and ambition was in his blood.

              Putin was part of the Soviet governing elite. But the men who governed the Soviet had no connection with the Tzarist elite. The men around the Tzar, elements of the old Tzarist elite, grabbed power, and then new men grabbed power from them, then new new men grabbed power, then new new new men grabbed power, and then the Bolsheviks grabbed power, killed off the old Tzarist elite, then killed off the new men, then killed off the new new men, then killed off the new new new men, and so forth. This was done in a organised bureaucratic way, but fairly often it happens in a chaotic and anarchic way.

              It is unlikely, though certainly possible, that power will be up for grabs in the way that our resident comedian Humungus anticipates. But it is going to be up for grabs.

              • Humungus says:

                No more games. We are here for a purpose!

                Sheltering in place with your stores of food is a puny plan.

                We must band together. Together we can rule like men. Apart we will be food.

                That is my plan with or without you.

              • Anon says:

                so in the current time power is still in GAE hand , so you can’t organize the same way William the Marshal, nor how augustus did it.
                raise a banner and call men to arms to conquest.

                power slips from GAE hand albeit slowly and surreptitiously , when exactly the time for banner raising and arms calling is unknown, but it will come.

              • Zorost says:

                None of those examples are MM, and none are of regular people spontaneously acquiring power over those with pre-existing power.

                Get organized locally now, afterwards will be too late.

                • jim says:

                  > None of those examples are MM

                  The England of William the Marshal was thoroughly Mad Max, and England for three centuries after the Romans abandoned it made Mad Max look like a genteel upper class suburb in Switzerland.

                  William the Marshal started off with no land, no home, no family, no job, no horse, but a sword like lightning, and became the second greatest man in England.

                  He got his sword hand from his father, not lands nor titles nor power.

          • jim says:

            Egypt was permanently much diminished. It took many centuries, not a couple of centuries, for Assyria to fill the vacuum around it, and the vacuum on the other side of the Mediterranean persisted for a thousand years. Romulus and Remus were mobile bandits settling down to become stationary bandits.

        • Mayflower Sperg says:

          From about 1830 to roughly 1850, South America was fairly Mad Max.

          A fortuitous consequence of which was the complete disappearance of Negroes outside their natural habitat, the tropical rainforest. In the continental US, which has no such biome, Negroes have always been protected, first as the property of plantation owners, then as clients of a liberal democratic welfare state. When that state dissolves, North America’s Negro population will very quickly drop to zero.

  15. Upravda says:

    You are right, just a little bit too optimistic.

    I expect Ukraine, that is, current Ukrainian regime, to last until this winter, 2024/2025.

    And no, there will be no Russian tanks on the streets of Kiev, or anything like that. Some more Russian conquest, yes, but nothing spectacular. Ukraine will have regime change, maybe even a short civil war, and then it will surrender as Germany did in WW1.

    More and more it seems to me Ukraine has never been a viable nation – ever. Something like Bosnia and Herzegovina. And, of all Uke refugees here, I have never, ever heard anyone speak Ukrainian. Only Russian.

    All that bloody business in those eastern European steppes looks increasingly like war between GAE Russians and Russian Empire Russians.

    It will be interesting to hear thundering silence from our rulers when it finally finishes.

    Who have, by the way, expressed the desire today that abortion becomes a basic human right, and who have judged, also today, that not submitting to Gaia demon is also a violation of human rights.

    It will also be interesting what will The Third Mindless Hysteria will be about.
    Any bets? 🙂

    • jim says:

      The problem is that the German ruling elite was German. And in World War One did not want to see enemy tanks rolling through Berlin. The Ukrainian ruling elite is not Ukrainian. Their real homes are in Western Europe. Zelensky just purchased a palace in England. They are totally fine with every Ukrainian getting killed and every Ukrainian city flattened. They see actual Ukrainians as weird strange alien inferior deplorables, and have disinvested in Ukrainian assets. In order to have a regime change or a civil war some actual Ukrainians would need to be in actual power.

      If the Ukrainian army continues to exist for as long as you expect and considerably longer than I expect, Kiev will eventually be flattened. It will just take considerably longer. Change in Ukraine is unlikely to occur until the carryon baggers flee Ukraine.

      The message will be that if you let carryon baggers rule you, you are likely to get into stupid brother wars with people who are not ruled by carryon baggers, and lose with enormous cost in lives and property. I pray that this results in a removal of carryon bagger government over much of the former Global American Empire.

      • Upravda says:

        All that – Uke ruling elite not being really Uke – are precisely the reason why I semi-expect short civil war in Ukraine after which winning side will surrender to Russia.

        The trouble is, silence of NATO defeat in Ukraine will be so deafening that I very much doubt any other carryon bagger will get the message. That means we, GAE, EU, The West, Empire of Lies, you name it, are likely to end up like in this article of Mr. Larry Johnson:

        Because, I’m really astonished how normies are still… “normying”? I know the word does not exist in English, but it should.

        • jim says:

          Yes, “Son of the American Revolution” thinks he is a radical revolutionary, but in his “Miss Havisham” article is utterly unable to notice the reality that is punching him the face.

          What he predicts for the future has in large part already come to pass, and he assumes the current leftism will just continue at current levels of leftism. Leftism has to get ever lefter, ever faster, or die. A shark must swim or it will drown.

          Biden leftism is ten times worse that Obama leftism, in a few years will be a hundred times worse. What is happening in New York city prefigures fast hot genocide of the white population. When leftism goes to infinity will destroy everything and murder everyone.

          • Upravda says:

            What is happening in NYC?

            Not mocking you, I’m simply not familiar with American politics.

            In EU parliament, “migration pact” has been established as a “resolution”. All of our leftist euro-parlamentarians voted for it, and lo and behold, it contains wonders such as “no EU member must accept migrants, but it should pay 20 thousand euros per bounced request”.

            Non-leftist abstained, if someone wonders.

            Mr. Orban is all against.

            And regarding Mr. Johnson, I’ve been following hist writings for quite a long time, and he does not strike me as someone who assumes current level of leftism will continue as-is. He hopes it will not spiral further, but does not assume it.

        • Contaminated NEET says:

          That’s a good image: America really is Miss Havisham right now. COVID and Ukraine proved it. All our institutions are running on the fumes of accomplishments from decades ago. Medicine, law, science, education, the economy, even basic local government – they’re the exoskeletons of dead insects: they can fool a cursory glance because they still hold the right shape, but the innards are all rotted out and hollow, and the spark of life is gone. The very dumbest thing our leaders could do is put the system through serious stress, but it seems like that’s exactly what they’re determined to do. Like a villain in a cheesy action cartoon, the only things they appear to be good at are shooting messengers who bring bad news and telling themselves they’re brilliant.

          And yet, these rotten institutions, or more accurately but deniably, the people who control them, rule us. They beat us over and over and over again. Each of them took a dozen heads to claim xer position at the top of the greasy pole, a position that rewards them very well in status, money, and good old Will to Power. They stink at ruling, but they are masters at gaining, keeping, and exercising power in bureaucratic organizations. The best and worst among them are still filled with the fanatical righteousness of the true believer.

          They moan and scream because they’re not used to losing, but deep down they’re certain a Ukraine defeat would be, at worst, a moderate PR problem, of the sort they handle every few months. This kind of thing is the “experts'” true area of expertise: dodging blame, claiming credit, spinning webs of words around the pesky real world until it fits whatever shape they need to put it on their CV, claim it in their next performance review, and use it as a debating point on some cable news show. It’ll work great within their system, because they’ll all agree to believe each other’s lies. For less-connected domestic audiences, the illusions are wearing thin, but that hasn’t really mattered so far. Foreign audiences are more interesting; what will GAE’s enemies and allies make of a UKR defeat? Do the spells still work on them?

          • jim says:

            “Miss Havisham” is an accurate depiction of America today. It is unlikely to be an accurate depiction of America next year. If the leftmost steal the election again, a more apt image will be a zombie risen from the grave seeking to eat the brains of the living.

            • Contaminated NEET says:

              Eventually, sure. Next year? I doubt it. They will steal the election, of course, because they don’t have the self-discipline to hang the disaster coming down the pike on Trump and the Right, and it’ll just be Biden year five. If years one through four didn’t turn the USA into Rwanda, five probably won’t be the tipping point.

              • jim says:

                Rwanda is a whole lot closer that it was year ago. Reflect on the wave of unpunished random violence by illegals against random white people in New York City. That starts to look rather like Rwanda. One year has made a big difference. One more year is going to make a considerably bigger difference.

                By and by that wave is going to get antifa style funding, antifa style state and official media backing. Which is what happened in Rwanda.

                Since it was unthinkable that antifa was doing what it its name says it was doing, attacking “nazis”, with police support and backing, “nazis” were arrested and punished for attempting to escape attack. It similarly unthinkable that illegals are attacking whites, and will be even more unthinkable when they get state and official media sponsorship. Which is already beginning.

                How many times have we been through the “It will never happen and when it does you bigots will totally deserve it” cycle?

                I tend to be on Musk time, but and make predictions of catastrophe too soon. But you have to have noticed that things are getting worse a whole lot faster than they were a few years back. OK. Probably not hot genocide in 2025. But still predicting something of that order in 2026. Ir not white genocide, something comparably horrific and unthinkable.

          • Calvin says:

            For less-connected domestic audiences, the illusions are wearing thin, but that hasn’t really mattered so far. Foreign audiences are more interesting; what will GAE’s enemies and allies make of a UKR defeat? Do the spells still work on them?

            Obviously the spells do not work. Look at the Houthis. Look at the wave of coups in Africa. Look at Iran. Look at Russia and China. They don’t give a damn.

            • jim says:

              Color revolution worked by magic: “Our victory is inevitable, so sign up with the winning side.”

              The magic has stopped working.

              The 2020 and 2022 American elections came out of the color revolution playbook. And it did work. Which is likely to persuade the faithful that it will work again. Which is likely to result in it working again internally, even though it is catastrophically failing externally.

              Yet I have noticed in my personal life that the power of Christ can also do magic And when I see mainstream politicians who seem to me authentically Christian — which is only one of them that I have watched so far — seems to me that they can do magic also.

              The weakness of the mainstream right is that you have to bring a gun to a gunfight and a faith to a holy war. Putin is reluctant to accept this, but pragmatic realists within his army accept it and act on it. Trump, like Putin, seems reluctant to accept this.

              I see political officers and chaplains in Putin’s army cooperating on testing what works, and statistically determining that faith in Christ and God is remarkably more effective at improving morale in the face of the horror of war, and the level of heroism, valor, and discipline, than the usual bullshit. Some of the people researching the data seem suspiciously cynical, but it would not work unless the Chaplains had genuine faith.

              My faith is as a mustard seed, and yet it works for me. This may explain the discrepancy between some commentators reporting that everyone around them sincerely and passionately believes in the official narrative, and my experience that not many people around me take the official narrative too seriously. When their faith meets my faith, their faith melts away, leading me to the conclusion that it was never deeply held.

              • skippy says:

                The USSR was considerably stronger than current Russia, but it looked to NYC and London for legitimacy, and so it had no power whatsoever in the end.

                Nazi Germany did not look tot NYC or London, and was overcome in a cataclysmic war, in which American “Aryans” produced most of the weapons.

                Russia must look to itself, and also produce more, if it is to win.

                • The Cominator says:

                  > The USSR was considerably stronger than current Russia
                  No it wasn’t current Russia is stronger. The USSR had a brief period of military strength after WWII after getting tons and tons of American aid.

                  Stalin made communism work sort of but it never worked very well. The one strength of the Soviets is Stalin’s system of actually cultivating high IQ individuals (since Stalin never bought into the equality religion BS so much) worked very well… something I’ve also pointed out was the strength of the FDR socialism system. Big institutions to the extent they have to exist (the military is one) need a very strict IQ caste system. Russia’s problem is that in the manner of American forever wars is that Russia has been fighting this war very half assed. Kiev should be level with the ground right now, it should have been leveled after two weeks when Ukraine didn’t surrender (for reasons I can’t quite comprehend I know why Zelensky and the other puppets wanted to fight on I don’t know why anyone else in Ukraine went along with it).

                • skippy says:

                  Even today much of Russia’s material strength is just the legacy of Soviet production. If they had an actual modern military, they would have won in three days in 2022.

                  They are still in the field because their faith is less decayed than ours. It remains to be seen whether they have a faith, or not.

                  Patriarch Kirill said all the right things, but then he probably expected victory in three days. Christ says that you can face complete disaster – this is ordinary – but the truth will rise again.


                • The Cominator says:

                  There is no great economic miracle of communism because there cannot be, what a command economy can do is strip some aspects of the economy to achieve a short term breakthrough in one or a few areas (this can be used well for a rapid arms buildup, NOT a sustainable one just for a total war you know is coming or to build energy generating megaprojects from a weak industrial base but not really for anything else). For obvious reasons even with brutal repression and slave labor stripping everything else in an economy to get great output in a few things can’t work too long though.

                  Basically you need to buildup arms rapidly for the war you know is coming or build some mega-power plants at the price of having no other goods beyond basic subsistence available for a few years… and then go back to a regular market economy.

                • skippy says:

                  I never claimed there was an economic “miracle” of communism. The economies of European socialist states had some productive capacity, and the USSR had about twice the population of Russia, and two to five times (depending who you believe) the proportionate military spending of Russia. So, it was able to build a lot of 1980s materiel, which would be much less capable if the West hadn’t itself declined.

                  More deeply, “Communist” countries of 1989 were far left by the standards of the late 1940s; their main political characteristic was stagnation. There is not a deep economic distinction between the US and its protectorates, and the USSR and its protectorates. There is a partial distinction because Truman backed away from FDR’s system and Reagan backed away from Truman’s system.

                  Obama and Biden have gone Trotskyite, which the USSR never did. Of course, the USA still has the beenfit of the economy built up until Reagan’s concensus, but, as we have seen in Ukraine, less benefit than even the Trotskyites believed.

                • Wulfgar Thundercock III says:

                  No actual modern military could defeat Ukraine in three days unless they started using nuclear arms almost immediately. It took GAE forces almost a month to completely defeat Iraq, a country with a tenth of the population that had been attacked and isolated from the world by the GAE for a decade. Fallujah alone took a month to take, twice.

                  Russia has one of the only modern militaries in the world, with some other notables appearing to be Iran, Turkey, China, and North Korea. Everyone else is coasting off of lessons learned in WW2 and in absurdly one-sided American beatdowns on the Third World.

                • skippy says:

                  Any military with a real air-ground integrated support system would have captured Kiev in a shot time by descent from Belarus.

                  Russia is not a perfect country. It is just a country with some spirit left. Slava Rossii!

                • Mayflower Sperg says:

                  > Russia must look to itself, and also produce more, if it is to win.

                  Russia also needs to reproduce more. Both sides in this war have armies with a median age around 40. Russia simply won’t have a military in 2050 if it doesn’t solve the birthrate problem soon.

                  If propaganda and tax incentives don’t achieve the necessary results, more coercive measures must be taken.

                • jim says:

                  Assyria survived the Bronze Age collapse. The Assyrian state also applied coercive measures to get fathers to marry off their daughters in a timely manner, and to enforce marriage durability. These two facts are likely to be related, though we do not know when these coercive measures were implemented.

                  We have an enormous number of fatherless single women. These need to be dealt with in the manner that Australian authorities dealt with them in the late eighteenth, early nineteenth century. Most of them married “voluntarily” within an hour or so of getting of the boat. Those that failed to volunteer were assigned a master with benefits.

              • Wulfgar Thundercock III says:

                >When their faith meets my faith, their faith melts away, leading me to the conclusion that it was never deeply held.

                That is a deeply insightful statement. I have had the same experience. When I take a stand, the normies fall in line or fall aside. They barely ever fight me on it, and never for long. The only time people fight me is when they are fellow players or crazy, and they are not normal.

                • alf says:

                  Especially after things have been going in Ukraine as they have been going, exactly same experience here. Ten people of true faith beat a 100 people of superficial faith.

                  It is worth noting though that our sample size is probably slightly biased — I don’t hang out with too many big city progs.

                • jim says:

                  As I have so often said, I live as far from power as I can get without treading water. It is possible that the faith is stronger closer to power.

                • The Cominator says:

                  Lot of women in blue urbanish areas suddenly became something close to true believers around 2014 2015 or so… horrifying to see.

                • Vendat Tunicam says:

                  That’s when it became mandatory to publicly support fag “marriage”. Women like the strong horse. Progressives made it clear who was the strong horse by rubbing everybody’s nose in it.

              • Fidelis says:

                Almost no one takes the official faith seriously. Almost everyone has adopted one piece or another from it and internalized it deeply.

                How many blue pilled men have you successfully ‘melted away’? Very easy to reach ‘women like bad boys’ level conversation, a heresy of the official faith, yet no one ever comes to the ultimate conclusion– therefore women shouldn’t be choosing and should be wed off shortly after puberty. If you’ve had success in that, you must greatly outmatch my faith, or at least charisma. I rarely get anything except strange looks for the suggestion.

                Same goes for the swarthy imports, though I admit in general the talk goes much farther. Very easy to get to ‘yeah we shouldn’t be handing out money and fancy titles to negroes because they’re negroes’, and even ‘yeah negroes do tend to be more crime prone and less intelligent on average’, intense heresy!, and yet the ultimate conclusion– therefore we need specialized rules for dealing with them like the old south, that one doesn’t stick in most cases. Depends on the crowd, some have already reached the conclusion of ‘send them back’, blood instinct for expelling a foreign race is stronger than blood instinct for securing family I suppose.

                These things are not for NPCs. They can assent just fine if their phone tells them to, but they are incapable of reaching the conclusion or carrying it out. Hence, we should not put too high hopes in a purge and replace job fixing these things. We need lots of people who are very much exceptional, in that coming to these ultimate conclusions and also being functional is extremely expectional, and they need to be discovered and put in very high places to disseminate the new normal down from. Just the purge and replace is a hell of an ask, and the people who will be nominating the new normal do not seem to know what to look for. You might say, well it’s dangerous to show signs of being a thought criminal, and yet the deepest thought crimes go under the radar when said plainly, let alone when said in sign and reference; I don’t buy it that we have a hidden reserve of well thinking men. I think we have a tiny vanguard that has awakened to the reality of all this through collective reason and a shared interest in history and politics, and this tiny vanguard is mostly very young and not anywhere close to power.

                • jim says:

                  My experience has been a fair bit more encouraging, though this could be just be a more optimistic take on a rather similar experience. Also, in wine there is truth. Do you get a funny look when you try it after the second glass?

                  In all cases, it does not seem to take much for their faith to easily melt away. Especially under the influence of both Christ and alcohol.

                  It is a lot easier to know who people really are and what they really think after a glass or two.

                  After a glass or two, you will get a lot fewer funny looks and a lot more nods and smiles.

                • Fidelis says:

                  I usually only bring these topics up when drinking, so yes. Adverse reactions are atypical, but getting the sense they’re just hearing me out and don’t fully agree is typical. I’m confident that a switch in messaging from authority will go fairly smoothly, not confident the people capable of the right messaging are close enough to power networks– now, next generation I have more optimism for thanks to internet “radicalization” — to even be found by the old guard that would be responsible for selecting them. Long term optimistic, short medium term pragmatically pessimistic. I think we have to be doing what we can now to keep the coals from dying out, as the next big switch more likely than not will stabilize us at one form of leftism or another, analogous to Augustus’ Rome.

                • jim says:

                  We may be interpreting similar data differently. My interpretation is that they hunger and thirst to be given permission to toss all these demonic doctrines overboard.

                • skippy says:

                  “How many blue pilled men have you successfully ‘melted away’? Very easy to reach ‘women like bad boys’ level conversation, a heresy of the official faith, yet no one ever comes to the ultimate conclusion– therefore women shouldn’t be choosing and should be wed off shortly after puberty.”

                  In my experience, feminism is the one point on which most men are not faking. A very large proportion of men is simply not able, or not willing, to understand what women are.

                  My guess is that most men – at least most white and Oriental men – did not reproduce by being the alpha, but by being the wingman who is given a bride by the alpha, and therefore are evolved to follow the alpha’s will concerning how to treat the bride, since the alpha could presumably take her away again.

                  That is fine when the alpha is your buddy, and he wants you to have many kids to be allies for his many kids, but today the state presents itself as the alpha, and the state wants you to die alone.

          • Zorost says:

            And on our side, we have people who think that collapse or reform is right around the corner, without any need for our side to do anything but cheer from the sidelines.

            Eventually it will end, but history strongly implies that what comes next won’t be any better, and will likely be a lot worse. And it will only get better if people like us take an active part in gaining power and ability to act, not just cheer or boo.

        • The Cominator says:

          Nah things wont stay the same and also a reference to one of the most horrible unreadable POS books ever written. Dickens was a paid by the word long winded hack.

      • Karl says:

        The message will be that if you let carryon baggers rule you, you are likely to get into stupid brother wars with people who are not ruled by carryon baggers, and lose with enormous cost in lives and property. I pray that this results in a removal of carryon bagger government

        The messsage is already loud and clear in Ukraine. And yet, the carryon baggers are not fleeing Ukraine. So how precisely could the message result in removal of a carryon bagger government?

        My impression is that the message is heard even outside of Ukraine by anyone not worshipping demons. The message stiffens every man’s spine to prevent government by carryon baggers, but does not help getting rid of government by carryon baggers.

        • jim says:

          > And yet, the carryon baggers are not fleeing Ukraine.

          The parliamentary quorum, the minimum number of people who need to be present for a vote to be legal, is, from memory, something like four hundred. (Not that whether a law is legally passed or not has any effect. The Ukraine has been a lawless terrorist dictatorship for a decade, but the charade of democracy, legality, constitutionality, and the rules based international order continued until this year. They stopped bothering with the charade in March)

          For an important and controversial vote, the subject of much grandstanding and drama, much performance of democracy and legality, numerous impassioned speeches and television campaigning, something like forty turned up. I reckon the rest are in western Europe.

      • Mister Grumpus says:

        The chaos, crime and decay of American cities is home grown carryonbaggers at work. The air-dropped Jews in recent Minneapolis and Chicago were one thing, but only distinct without much difference. Even if they’re from nearby, their attention is elsewhere. Their downtown has trash, vagrants and crackheads, but their eyes and prayers are fixed upon Harvard.

      • skippy says:

        “The problem is that the German ruling elite was German. And in World War One did not want to see enemy tanks rolling through Berlin. The Ukrainian ruling elite is not Ukrainian.”

        That is partly right, partly not right. WWI ended when the Social Democratic Party seized power in a coup brought on my the Prussian General Staff losing its nerve and telling the Kaiser (incorrectly) that the war was tactically over. The Social Democracy Party then agreed to an armistice on the theory that it would result in a peace according to Wilson’s Fourteen Points, under which Germany should theoretically not lose any territory and would actually gain much of the territory later annexed in peacetime by Hitler (Austria and the Sudetenland, which were majority ethnically German).

        The armistice, however, required the Germans to throw away their military position, so what happened instead is that the allies agreed amongst themselves something between what they promised Germany and a Carthaginian peace. While (non-German) tanks did not roll through Berlin, several million Germans ended up ruled by nationstates of other nationalities, and many of them were subject to abuse.

        The Social Democrat Party was mostly ethnic German however. The Communist Party, which tried to launch a coup against the Social Democrats between the armistice in November 198 and the signing of the Versailles Treaty in 1919, was principally led by Jews like Zelensky, and Social Democracy’s Thermidor successfully employed the reactionary Freikorps to smash them.

        The reactionaries in Germany at the time mostly believed the whole thing was a stitch-up between the Social Drmocrats and the Wilsonians, who ostensibly shared the same aims, and believed they were willing to sacrifice Germany’s welfare and safety to obtain them. That may or may not have been true, but it does smell a little funny.

        • The Cominator says:

          The leadership of the Social Democratic party at the time was also mostly Jews (the SPD was just a splitoff of the communist party anyway) though Ebert wasn’t. The stab in the back myth didn’t come from nowhere the problem was it didn’t tell the whole story… I generally pushback against blaming Jews for things they are innocent of all the time but it wasn’t generally Christian Germans who were in charge of the Social Democratic Party during their coup against the monarchy.

          “The reactionaries in Germany at the time mostly believed the whole thing was a stitch-up between the Social Drmocrats and the Wilsonians”
          Wilson was an even bigger piece of shit than Joe Biden and if he wasn’t in on an evil global conspiracy than his handler “Colonel” House certainly was.

          • skippy says:

            SPD leadership: OK, what you are writing is fair and accurate. The main difference between the SPD and the KPD is that the SPD was a mass movement mostly consisting of normal Germans (~98% of the population was ethnic German) whereas the KPD was a small party almost exclusively composed of professional revolutionaries who were disproportionately Jewish (almost all of the names KPD on the German Revolution wikipedia article are Jewish). The Germans never fully lost control of their country simply because the country was so German, but they would have fully lost control had the KPD come to power, much as the Hungarians briefly lost their country to Jews under Bela Kun’s government.

    • jim says:

      The lunatic left thinks it can just print enough GDP to hold a two front war with Russia and China. The leftmost always wins, because leftists have no enemies to the left, no friends to the right.

      You predict a new leftmost with less suicidal ambitions. Maybe. I kind of expect the next leftmost will be giant pyramids where they hold human sacrifices rock concert style and roll the bodies down the pyramid to be eaten by the assembled faithful. Or the current leftmost could just continue straight ahead to war with Russia and China, till the nukes fly.

      On the other hand, there are signs we may get Thermidor, which will likely eventually result in Napoleon crowning himself Holy American Emperor.

      • Upravda says:

        I have a notoriously hard time predicting lunacy, but I do know The Third Mindless Hysteria will be quite suicidal. I mean, they closed churches better than Enver Hoxha ever did, and turned billions of people into guinea pigs, and then shot ourselves in the foot by forbidding The Spice to flow.

        So seriously, what’s next?

        Yes, yes, there are LGBTWTF massacring of “trans” this or that, and gay parades, and worshiping all those demons, but all that is still more a lip service than the real sacrifice.

  16. Cloudswrest says:

    VoxDay links to an article today claiming that Russia has achieved air superiority and now it’s basically a “turkey shoot” against Uki forces.

  17. Yul Bornhold says:

    “A Ukrainian strategy aimed at winning the war would be to make Russians pay the highest possible price for their advances, and Ukrainians the lowest possible price for inflicting that high price, and then negotiate when the Russians got tired — it would mean a willingness to fall back from weak places. The entire Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive consisted of Ukrainians in weak places fighting Russians in strong places.”

    There might be another factor at play. The Ukrainians certainly seem to be taking disproportionate losses but the battleline formed in 2014. They’ve been building up the line, at least around Donbass, for ten years. It might be the case that they lack the capacity to create equally formidable defenses farther back, that their conscript hordes may not be able to effectively execute a fighting withdrawal strategy of the type you recommend, etc. Holding with meatwaves may simply be the only strategy they have available.

    That being said, the Greatest Counteroffensive was a bad idea with no military justification. At the very best, they ought to have given up on the attack within a week. When the offensive was ongoing, I posted a link to a GAE article in the comments section here. The article argued that the Russians were fighting a competent defense but they had no reserves and were fighting exhausted so “The Russians have to win every time. The Ukrainians only have to win once.” This was based on the claim that all known Russian formations (if that’s the right term) had been spotted on the frontline. It was an argument with tangible claims, so I thought it worth posting, but, in retrospect, nonsense.

    • jim says:

      > They’ve been building up the line, at least around Donbass, for ten years.

      The line around Donbass was built on the assumption that Avdiika, the major officially unofficial NATO base, would not fall. That line is looking rather tattered now. The strongest parts have been penetrated in many places. Avdiivka was the keystone, and the major source of incoming artillery on Donbass.

  18. Andres says:

    tx fees are a function of tx demand, and always seek the lowest.
    price is more a window opening effect to the fee.
    We do not estimate utility required other than to say a tx per user “weekly” at 1B+ users.
    We do not estimate price of coins that have limited lifespan.
    A long term coin could feel like wide range in time $125k “soon” to $2M+ “later”.

  19. Pax Imperialis says:

    Crypto is an important and fascinating subject, but your comment sections immediately filling with off topic esoteric arguments advocating for coins average grug have never heard about, and will likely never understand, points to autism. Why is first mover advantage and Metcalfe’s law so fucking hard for these people to understand? No one (that matters in tech) disputes Microsoft’s recent Windows OS is shit, and much better alternatives exist, but many in the professional world remain on Windows precisely because it was the first big dog in the fight. Maybe in 20 years some other OS will be top dog… but that will only be after decades of decline. I cannot say with technical authority that Bitcoin is the “best” coin out there, but it’s clear it will be the biggest around (minus any black swan events) for a long time.

    • jim says:

      Yes. “Two to three years” sounds like shilling. Ten years is more like it. I agree that a better alternative will replace Bitcoin, if Bitcoin does not do its usual thing and assimilate the upstart’s superior technology. But we have better alternatives right now, and they are not getting much wind in their sails yet.

      Ethereum is still a major competitor, but everything that gave it an advantage has been lost or copied. As I said before, going to be ground into the dust by Metcalfe’s law.

    • jim says:

      If there was no such thing as first mover advantage and Metcalfe’s law, then anyone could come up with his own crypto currency, and dilute Bitcoin away. And ten thousand idiots, five thousand scammers, and one thousand state sponsored enemies of crypto currency immediately proceeded to attempt to do just that, coming up with sixteen thousand altcoins.

      And the idiots do not want to hear about first mover advantage and Metcalfe’s law, and the scammers and government agents refuse to comprehend.

    • Tyrone says:

      Bitcoin tech recently got better, more than enough to hold the first mover advantage.

      The tech is important because if enough people save and do business on the bitcoin chain, then the OS system is a good analogy.

      But if everyone holds their bitcoin on a centralized exchange, or in an ETF, they are just a single click from swapping into another crypto and using that to transact, gamble or save.

      CBDCs are obviously the elephant in the room, they have a good chance at locking everyone in.

      If they roll out a CBDC properly, in the first month it will have more active wallets than bitcoin or ethereum had in their first 10 years combined.

      For that matter, if everyone is holding their BTC on a cex, their coins could be converted into a CBDC overnight. Last year Robinhood updated a database and converted everyone’s crypto into fiat. At least they gave 30 days notice.

      If you’re paranoid, the fact that the government has been friendly to bitcoin makes you uneasy. The last six months of BTC price action is arguably not due to anything technical but to the ETF approval, which is interpreted as the federal government capitulating or at least making a tactical retreat vs bitcoin.

      Maybe they think they can control it? Maybe they want to be able to buy it for themselves while retail is still traumatized, and the untraumatized are chasing shitcoins?

      Blackrock is moving into ethereum which is also good conspiracy fuel. But at the same time it looks like the ether ETFs will be denied this year. The hope is that Trump will approve them.

      • jim says:

        > The last six months of BTC price action is arguably not due to anything technical but to the ETF approval

        I predicted in November 2022 what has happened since, and I obviously did not know about ETFs back then. Bitcoin is recapitulating the usual cycle, and I correctly called the bottom of previous cycle.

        Blockchain analysis indicates that the price of Bitcoin is driven by people holding it in cold wallets or paper wallets — the ETFs are finance people getting in front of a trend that is rendering them irrelevant. ETFs may well make a difference, but they don’t seem to be making an important difference now, and when I made that prediction, had I known of the ETFs, I would not have expected them to make a big difference.

        People should not get excited about ETFs. Bitcoin was created to destroy all that stuff, to disintermediate finance, and it rises to the extent it succeeds in doing so.

        Bitcoin is following the same pattern as in previous cycles – and there were no ETFs in previous cycles. If history repeats itself yet again, we should see a huge rise in a few weeks.

        An additional factor that may make a difference this time around is that the petrodollar is dying, and there is no satisfactory alternative except the petrobitcoin.

        Another factor that may make a difference is that due to ever rising transaction costs, Bitcoin is hitting serious competition for use as money in ordinary transactions from Litecoin. But that is not likely to affect the price of Bitcoin or Litecoin for a few years, maybe a year or two.

        • Tyrone says:

          Institutions have been applying for ETFs for the better part of 10 years and they were continuously rejected.

          Something must have changed, but I am a poor reader of political tea leaves.

          This article from six years ago predicted litecoin’s atrocious price action relative to BTC. It is always worth seeking out and reading FUD before you invest in something, and this is high grade FUD imho. But feel free to delete if it does not add to the conversation

          I would likewise be grateful if you can help me find up to date statistics on litecoin usage.

          • jim says:

            > Institutions have been applying for ETFs for the better part of 10 years and they were continuously rejected.

            > Something must have changed,

            I am not interested in what has changed and I doubt it matters. If you want to accurately predict the future, you have to ignore what is irrelevant and unimportant so that it does not get in the way of seeing what is important.


            An entirely correct analysis — but litecoin development has resumed, perhaps because the high fee environment has put wind in its sails. It still has the huge problem that this analysis notes: No funding model to sponsor development. And yet it is currently the leading tech in privacy coins, and it now supports contracts — very belatedly. So it has the leading tech, of sorts — the code is alarmingly quick and dirty, and suffers from technical debt, which may well be an obstacle for future development, but right now it is at the leading edge of tech, whereas the article argued it was lagging and would lag more. Which it did from the time that article was written to 2022. That technical development has resumed may indicate someone with funds becoming hopeful in the high fee environment.

            • Tyrone says:

              BCH added smart contracts and I think privacy as well, but it has done even worse than LTC since 2018.

              But to say litecoin is at the leading edge is strong praise, I don’t want to brush it off.

              I would be very grateful if you can help me look into that. If I come to a different conclusion don’t worry I won’t spam the comments talking about how the leading edge is actually this or that coin that I own. But the litecoin website is a bit dated and I’m not sure where to start.

              • jim says:

                Mweb addresses. Omnilite.

                Mweb addresses are the leading edge of zero knowledge as far as actual implementation in a useful currency goes, though it lags well behind the leading edge of research and development. A more advanced tech than Monero.

                Omnilite is a metoo technology, following up behind the big boys.

  20. Andres says:

    tx rates != tx fees
    Fees can range from zero (self-interested volunteer network), to prohibitive for any given nominal value transfer.
    Rates must be able to support large enough population base weekly long term.
    There is no “CBDC like”, either a coin is or falls unto centralizated and/or non-self-custody, or it doesnt trend that way. the “B” just means the bankers own it. when btc fees price users out, “E”tf will be part central owners, as will bail-in, etc. “T”ether is completely dependent on US solvency and govt permission. “L”iquid is “C”orp control by blockstream.
    4-5 years.
    things move fast.
    be ready.

  21. Pax Imperialis says:

    Russian Orthodox Church has recently declared this a holy war in no uncertain terms. They are no longer rhetorically dancing around the reality. ROC has become a living state religion. State has created yet another enemy it is incapable of understanding. DoD is unprepared as well having neutered spiritual fitness unsurprisingly with its plethora of “Spiritual Fitness” programs.


    I was appalled with how Prigozhin died. Such a death, as pertaining to legitimate security concerns of the state, does not raise to murder (or at least it doesn’t feel that way on moral grounds), and I would think Russian military command would be understanding, empathetic, of the reasons even though they were sympathetic towards Prigozhin’s cause. I doubt the average Russian sees it as murder. Putin remains extremely popular among the Russian people.

    >the plan was idiotic, and that he was idiotic.

    The State Department rabbit hole runs so deep into stupidity that the Ukraine strategy looks relatively brilliant. Nuland and her peers are somewhat intelligent behaving dumb for ideological reasons. Their younger replacements are actual idiots.

    • jim says:

      > Russian Orthodox Church has recently declared this a holy war in no uncertain terms.

      Youtube allows it because they do not comprehend it. They do not know themselves or their enemy.

    • jim says:

      > Nuland and her peers are somewhat intelligent behaving dumb for ideological reasons. Their younger replacements are actual idiots.

      The generation that made themselves stupid and ignorant due to an ideology found the tensions between their faith and reality disturbing, so surrounded themselves with people who were actually stupid and ignorant, which generation is now replacing them.

    • Zorost says:

      When trying to understand the hebrews, one must always guard against applying our goy standards. They aren’t dumb, they simply don’t value nations as anything other than a temporary host to leach from. Imagine someone said, “I’ll give you $1000 but you have to use it to bet me on a coin toss, else I won’t give it to you.”

      So of course you accept the $1k and make the bet, because 50% chance you end up with $2,000 and 50% chance you break even since it wasn’t your $1000 to begin with. This is how Nuland et al. view gambits like Ukraine: it’s not their lives being squandered or tax money wasted, so they might as well roll the dice. Heads we lose, tails they win.

      I give pretty good odds that their counterparts in Russia, China, have long been maneuvering to place a patsy or even one of their own in power. They can’t really lose, as long as they are allowed to exist in multiple nations. They just switch hosts.

  22. Fidelis says:

    What do you see as high likelihood immediate outcomes should there be an undeniable folding of resistance in the Ukraine?

    If a significant enough fraction of the lever pullers recognize the fact the West can’t make shells, let alone anything else, fast enough to compete with moderate powers, what will they do? It looks like they’re trying to reindustrialize by throwing ever more inflated currency at the problem with the result being not dissimilar to throwing that same money into a volcano and asking nearby oracles for their advice. Do the people ‘skimming the gravy of empire’ even realize just why and how the west deindustrialized? To me it looks like they have no idea, like they think it’s just cost of labor that caused it. Otherwise you might see them give special privileges to the people Quixotically attempting to build modern chip fabs on North American soil, but instead the people in charge on the government side are insisting that they hire nursing and pregnant construction workers.

    The bubble these people live in seems fairly impenetrable. They might sense that something has changed and it not working as before, but they have no idea what that ‘something’ actually was and are incapable of truthfinding. Lets take a few hypotheticals in a row: Trump is let in the office, Trump is facing resistance only from true believers and not 100% of the bureaucrats, Trump understands he needs to pick good people. Is there any indication that Trump knows who to pick? You say he needs to fish them out of prison, but is there any indication the honest political opponents have any logistical skill or are they simply opposition? Is there honestly anyone outside the internet youth and 0.01% fringe that thinks hey maybe race communism is still bad even if you call it civil and a right? Not that we need democratic consensus so much as we need these people to exist and be found by any party rebuilding the government. I just don’t see it, it looks honestly to me like the realistic outcome is managed decline under some military junta after the most radicalized leftists are gotten rid of. Which is far better than trannie Lenin, but its not exactly a 1660 restoration either.

    • jim says:

      > Is there any indication that Trump knows who to pick? You say he needs to fish them out of prison, but is there any indication the honest political opponents have any logistical skill or are they simply opposition?

      When our existing political class is grossly incompetent at basic politics, skill is not our highest priority. If Trump can pick a loyalist, he will do fine picking random loyalists with no special skills.

      > Is there honestly anyone outside the internet youth and 0.01% fringe that thinks hey maybe race communism is still bad even if you call it civil and a right?

      Looks to me that it hitting fifty percent of the population. I get drunk with regular people, I am not isolated in internet bubble. It might look like 0.01% if you are in Washington, but Washington is in a bubble. In the street, race communism is dead in the water.

      • Fidelis says:

        >loyalists are enough
        Perhaps picking at random is far better than specifically selecting for people interested in destroying civilization, but it’s not going to stop the place from mimicking a colder more sad Brazil. Hence my prediction of managed decline. Stopping the leftist spiral before the death camps seems possible, revitalization of the empire and civilizational restoration from the top seems completely impossible.

        >race communism
        I assume anyone I interact with is part of a filter bubble. Humans unconsciously select for people who think the same as them, and the tribal tells are not always totally obvious.

        Sure if you straight out say ‘race communism bad’ no one that isn’t insane and evil will disagree with you. But lets say we shut it down, just totally rip out all the legislation mandating equal outcomes and all that, and just totally rip out all the racial welfare. What happens? Do you honestly think normies have the stomach for that? When you have millions of starving unhirable transplanted africans unable to take care of themselves and the cities truly becoming something that resembles Liberia or Haiti, including voodoo rituals and ramshack stalls selling meat that suspiciously resembles something cut off a corpse, do you think the normies are going to abide by that? They send billions out of pocket when its just guilt trips on the television screen.

        The only way race communism gets undone is when everyone is so poor they don’t have the energy to care that the african transplants are dying from famine conditions.

        • FrankNorman says:

          Fidelis – you seem to be assuming that the normies will actually know or believe how bad the inner cities have become. By that time those “transplanted Africans” would have the place to themselves.

          And it won’t matter if the FedGov wants to still keep giving them money, if there is nothing that the money will buy. No food to be bought from shops – because no shops! No one is going to try to sell food or anything else to them. If the FedGov drops off crates of food for free, the blacks would fight and kill each other other the supplies.
          Since no workers can go in to maintain the infrastructure without being attacked by mobs who want to eat them, all of the utilities – power, water, sewerage – will gradually break down.

          • Fidelis says:

            Amerikaaner people are generally compassionate and would not be able to tolerate leaving them in that state. The solution is something like the spanish caste system, the old south, or apartheid. Any of which requires a shift in mindset I genuinely do not believe people are capable of, at least not in this current generation. This is why I believe we will be stuck with the pets until poverty becomes truly all consuming, and the amerikaaner can no longer afford to care about any sort of self righteousness. You have to understand we are hitting upon a very old ideology that sunk into popular mindset more than a century and a half ago, with even older origins, that plays specifically to the conceits of the post-English mind. It will take a lot to undo, and may in fact never be undone until some new forms of social organization are born and replace the old stock.

            • jim says:

              > The solution is something like the spanish caste system, the old south, or apartheid. Any of which requires a shift in mindset I genuinely do not believe people are capable of, at least not in this current generation.

              Sentiment is ready to turn on a dime. The “arc of progress” has repeatedly made U turns on a dime, and everyone instantly forgot that they had ever believed the old orthodoxy and were entirely confident that they had always believed the new orthodoxy. People are sick of this $#!%. The instant they have permission to accept apartheid or Jim Crow, or slavery, they will.

              • Mayflower Sperg says:

                In South Africa, race communism ended with whites living in enclaves where any black person who tries to enter gets shot, even if he’s wearing a uniform. Trade between whites and blacks is via Bangladeshi middlemen, who make a tidy profit except when their shops get looted and burned by black rioters.

                As the global genocide heats up, these enclaves will become attractive to foreign whites, even if they have to live in tents until proper housing can be built for them. This video looks like it was made sometime in the 2030s:


                TL;DW race communists complaining that government and business don’t even pretend to believe in race communism.

                • Contaminated NEET says:

                  Race communism hasn’t yet ended in South Africa. It will probably end with a mob-based genocide of the remaining Whites, with the American military backstopping the South African government to make sure that the blue-eyed devils aren’t allowed to defend themselves. Until the GAE decisively and permanently falls, those enclaves are roach motels.

                • Mayflower Sperg says:

                  Storming white enclaves without air support would be a re-enactment of the Battle of Blood River. The South African Air Force replaced all its white mechanics with affirmative-action hires, and soon had no flyable aircraft.

                  So the white enclaves are safe for now, and will be even safer when the US Air Force has no flyable aircraft.

        • Big Brutha says:

          I think the preference cascade can happen faster than you think. Per Jim, there are huge swaths of the population who are done with race communism. They don’t say anything because doing so would get them picked off one by one by the usual types who want them unemployed and their lives destroyed. What they are looking for is a signal from someone giving them permission to jettison the whole thing.

          I think a Trump win followed by the right kind of executive orders, would be sufficient to unwind a lot of it. Obviously, there would be court challenges but that’s all the more reason for Trump to appoint a whole slate of “activist judges” from the right. We’ve never really had those before. We mostly just had “originalists” who wanted to freeze the Constitution at some arbitrary point. The Left has established a living Constitution. (It’s really an undead Constitution but that is irrelevant.)

          It’s time to use the power of the courts, not to hedge against Leftist encroachments, but to move the ball down the field in the opposite direction. Defensive rearguard actions maybe necessary but by themselves rarely result in a win.

          There may be a chance to advance things at the Supreme Court. Sonya Sotomayor looks like she may in fact retire. She is under pressure to do so by the Left so they can get a candidate confirmed before the election. It does not look like she wants to.

          But if Trump wins it is possible he can get a sixth “conservative” on the court. That would tilt the court definitively toward the right. You’d still have to deal with the wishy washy nature of those people but it would be a tool he could use to start gutting race communism.

          A series of test cases teed up in friendly districts could be pushed through to an appeals court in a friendly circuit and fast tracked to the Supreme Court. As Roe v. Wade’s overturning showed, the court CAN reverse decisions if it chooses to do so. A defeat of the constitutionality of race communism at that level would open the flood gates for all kinds of fun things.

        • Zorost says:

          “…do you think the normies are going to abide by that?”

          You are still thinking in terms of voting and opinions mattering. Normies are normies because they won’t do shit except vote and watch sportsball. They will abide whatever the fuck those in power do, because they are normies.

          normie1: “Did you see all those negros dumped in a mass grave and buried by the regime?”
          normie2: “Yeah, that’s fucked up. Did you catch the game last night?”

          • Fidelis says:

            I pointed this out, and added my own reasoning as to why we still need a large enough pool of competent people that hold these ideas: someone has to broadcast the new normal down to the normies.

            Not that we need democratic consensus so much as we need these people to exist and be found by any party rebuilding the government.

    • A2 says:

      Last time around, the Trumpists were a quite mixed bag. Lots of duds. Who were any good? Steve Miller … maybe Rex Tillerson … anyone else?

      Regarding the military, Trump seemed quite liked by the soldiers but would have to replace the top few layers of command to get a military that is loyal to the CiC. Doing this worked for Obama, if memory serves, but I assume the ‘resistance’, if you will, to doing it will be greater this time around.

    • Zorost says:

      Chip fabs are being constructed in the US with federal help.

      Factions w/i the gov are also trying to push pro-White messages to get us to join the military too. Some at the top know the issues, but they have to push it through underlings that were selected for being Woke fanatics who have their own agenda.

  23. Andres says:

    Just completed a three month review of the space with a few friends.
    In our analysis, Bitcoin is dead.
    It’s surviving on draft fumes at this point, nothing wrong with that, but that’s the fact.
    We believe Bitcoin’s currently increasing marketcap delta to other coins will stagnate around 2-3 years out, and begin closing within about 3 years, with significant losses up to and including flippening in 4-5 years.
    We view transaction rates and privacy as key motivators and options.
    Please… keep up on crypto and be prepared to shift between coins.

    • jim says:

      I was about to silently suppress this a yet more shilling by the usual crew of crypto currency scammers, as I have silently suppressed so many others, until you made the actually relevant points: Transaction fees and privacy. Which are closely linked because if everything in on the reliable broadcast channel, it is just going to be too big. No coin can challenge Bitcoin on transaction rates without addressing privacy, because if the competitor puts everything on the public broadcast channel, going to have roughly comparable scaling problems when it reaches roughly comparable size. At which point Metcalfe’s law and Bitcoin’s first mover advantage grind it into the dust.

      The threat, however, is CBDC like currencies, which address scaling by centralisation. (Liquid and Tether, I am looking at you.) So we are eventually going to see CBDC like currencies and privacy currencies challenging bitcoin to be the one.

      You are provisionally white listed, but if I see the usual, will be put on moderation until you take the shill test. There is a whole of hostile enemy action in the crypto currency space.

      > We believe Bitcoin’s currently increasing marketcap delta to other coins will stagnate around 2-3 years out

      “Stagnate” at something like a million dollars per BTC. Bitcoin is going to go way higher during this year. Indeed, going way higher is precisely the problem, because transaction fees tend to go up with the price of bitcoin.

      • FrankNorman says:

        Hi Jim, regarding electronic currency of any sort, whether the sort the Globalists want (centralized, they can track and control everything, and can steal all your money anytime they feel like it) or the sort you want (impossible for them to do any of that)… there’s one basic problem:

        It all needs reliable power and network connectivity. And in much of the world, even in the supposed First world, that’s not going to be a given. Not with Shaniqua in charge of budgeting for the power generation and distribution, and Pajeet being responsible for the wiring.

        Lots of people, myself included, prefer to be able to pay for some things in physical cash, where if I want to buy a bag of oranges from a guy who’s selling fruit out of the back of his car, I can do that, even if theres’s a blackout… and it’s none of the busybody government’s business.

        But how about cryptocurrency as physical cash? Say I have a collection of things that look like old-school banknotes, but are actually something much smarter than that. I can download 100 Jimcoin onto one of them, and it stores the mathematical pattern. I can spend that as money, the other guy can do the same with it, it can do the rounds.. until one of them instead uploads it into his own E-account, whereupon the physical card is now “empty” until someone downloads money into it again.

        • FrankNorman says:

          As long as that 100 Jimcoin is either in the online system, or on a card, but never both at once, there should not be any “inflation” problem.

        • Fidelis says:

          Solar panels are cheap and effective enough that even with failing centralized grids, you shouldn’t expect extended periods of blackout conditions. Same with the internet, even excluding satellites we have protocols that can run on shoddy radio equipment just fine. Low bandwidth but it works.

          You would have to reimagine from the ground up how cryptocurrency works if you wanted an offline version. Ultimately the value is recorded on a shared ledger, and if you recieve some value you want to verify it against the current state of that ledger. If I just put a secret on some card, you the reciever cannot be sure I haven’t done something like write two checks until you confirm against the online ledger.

          There’s ways to shard this ledger so that you can have a local network, say if global internet becomes truly shoddy, but ultimately you need something to confirm for you that you haven’t recieved what is essentially a dud card (already spent secret, or just never had any value in it secret). Cryptocurrency is an internet thing, and really should be treated as such. If you need your money to move like information on the internet does, reach for it. If you are worried about paying for a dozen eggs after the lights go out, maybe silver coins, bullets and dish detergent would be better.

          • FrankNorman says:

            Heh – if things go to the point where bullets are the currency, someone is going to try to convince us that instead of all carrying live ammo around, we should all let him store it for us in his bank, with receipts that can always be redeemed (promise promise!) for the actual munitions.

            • Fidelis says:

              I’ve stopped really talking about crypto with normies, because I’ve reasoned it’s not for them. The people who can make use of crypto find it on their own, they’re the high intelligence high agency types capable of parsing all the scams and unsafe, unreliable bullshit– and also capable of managing private keys safely and figuring out what to do with it once they own it.

              Eventually once all the technical problems get ironed out, they will be using crypto the same way they use regular payment apps today. Which is fine, I don’t care how people buy their groceries. I care about how people woth lots of capital and lots of agency decide to act. They will be the ones building and funding the technical projects that matter, and the very tip of the spear will be building their organizations with the best social and financial technology.

              In the meantime I tell normies to invest in anything that’s not paper. Real estate, physical tools and goods, (controversially) physical onwership of bullion precious metals, as I anticipate the demonetization of metals will be long and slow, and much slower than the demonetization of the fake shell game most financial instruments have become. Normies know how to manage a physical thing, it’s hard for them to manage private keys.

              The reference of bullets and daily goods as being bargaining tools is me attempting to point out that if the decline is so dramatic as to eliminate most power and internet, we’re not going to be worrying about how to buy groceries. We’re going to be worried about how not to be enslaved and or shot for canned rations. In such a scenario it’s counterproductive to be overstocked, as you’ll just be the juiciest target.

          • c4ssidy says:

            it seems like what you need is to checksum a physical object in a way that the physical object cannot be replicated. a pattern of metal atoms on a surface will shift around. Perhaps a macroscopic structure stable enough to be unchanged for a few thousand years but to us the size of a coin. You would fire radiation at it and get the same checksum response each time, yet the internal structure would be too complicated to replicate, being the equivalent of a big number formed in the fires of a very chaotic and random system before it settled. You would have the equivalent of a physical private key. One builds a set of the keys, distributes them, with agreement on what keys are money and what is not, the list which can be stored on a USB and spread around, and the hash of the list being public knowledge

            • jim says:

              You have a coin such that an undetectable counterfeit can never be created — because whenever someone goes to the bank to convert his coins into crypto currency, the hash of the physical structure of the coin is going to be looked up in the Merkle tree of coins issued by the bank

              A bank could issue coins equal to its assets, and promise to convert into internet crypto currency on demand, as banks promised to convert banknotes into gold on demand.

              The topological map generated by the internal microcrystal structure of the coin is not going to change under small changes of the microstructure caused by bending and wear, so you hash not the microstructure directly but its topological map — equivalent of counting loops and whorls on a fingerprint, rather than the fingerprint directly.

              You could have coins of immensely high denomination — the higher the denomination, the more likely it is to checked rather often against the root of the merkle tree.

            • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

              Easily done via topologies enameled with pyroceram or other transparent ceramics.

              • Epimetheus says:

                What about such a material used as an enamel for a piece of gold? Perhaps the enamel would be used to both physically protect and verify the identity of the gold piece within, while also hiding its denomination of value from the casual glance? I don’t know if there would be any advantage to this, just throwing it out there.

                • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                  Gold is useful as a form money because it is both resistant to corrosion and easily divisible. Its softening point isn’t particularly high though, and a general rule for glass-ceramics is that higher flux (both alkaline elements and also acidic elements, such as phosphorous) means lower firing temperature, but also lower durability, be it physically, chemically, or thermally.

                  It’s not a simple 1-to-1 relationship of course and various local optima taking advantage of the unique properties and interactions of each different form of matter exist, but as noted a good substrate for such an application would be something that can be both easily machined and also withstand high temperature firings without degradation, such as stainless steel or oilless bearing bronze. These are all things that can be done with relatively simple facilities.

                  A step up from this of course would be tokens with monolithic crystalline optical circuits, that read out when plugged in.

        • Anti-CBDC says:

          Since all the censors and “moderators” out there won’t allow me to debate anyone, [*Take the shill test described in the moderation policy*]

          • Attn Jim says:

            hey jim, what the fuck is your prob, none of all these people you been censoring on here [*deleted*]

            • jim says:

              No one is being censored. I am not suppressing anyone on content (except sometimes for idiocy and ignorance)

              Anyone can pass the shill test described in the moderation policy and get white listed. Anyone can pass this, regardless of his religious or political beliefs, regardless of what issues he wants to speak about, anyone who is not reading from a script with a supervisor standing over him, can pass this.

              The trouble with people reading from a script is that they sound like they are engaging their interlocutor, but they refuse to notice their interlocutor’s position (since the man who wrote their script has no idea what we are thinking or saying). This results in the superficial appearance of conversation without the substance.

              I am doing the opposite of censorship. Censorship is suppressing certain ideas, inconvenient facts, and arguments. I am suppressing people who are unable to notice certain ideas, certain facts, and certain arguments.

              As I say in

              If you want two way narrowcasts, you need a means to keep out mass broadcasts, or else narrowcast memes sent by individuals to individuals will be drowned out by mass produced broadcast memes sent to everyone indiscriminately by large bureaucratic organizations.

              I am not banning you for what you say, but for what you are unable to say. I am banning you for who you are. Glownigger.

              • Attn Jim says:

                nah, i see no evidence of your claims, [*that you are strangely unable to take the shill test is proof of my claims, glownigger*]

                • jim says:

                  I don’t censor anyone. Pass the shill test and say whatever you like. [Other than obstinate space wasting repetition, and similar limits) There are no limits on ideas, arguments, and evidence. If someone refutes your argument, you have to respond to what he said, rather than just confidently repeating the same argument again. And again. And again, but it is not going to be suppressed until it has been said, and said far too many times. I silence people for what they will not say, primarily for failure to respond to their interlocutor’s argument. That is not censorship. No one ever gets shut down for saying things, only for not saying things.

                  Censorship is silencing ideas, arguments, and evidence that one does not want heard. I never do that. There would be no point in doing it, since all those ideas and evidence are bellowed from the rooftops through loudspeakers twenty four seven. When we are in power, we might well censor, but, being out of power, censorship would be absurd.

              • Clark says:

                “”” I don’t censor anyone. — Jim “””

                Jim, it is well known that you censor people you disagree with. [*deleted*]

                • jim says:

                  I don’t censor anyone. No point in the anyone to the right of Pol Pot attempting to censor anyone, since your message is being shouted from the rooftops twenty four seven by official media, and on every internet forum by you and other glowniggers.

                  What I do is keep out glowniggers.

                  Pass the shill test described in the moderation policy and get white listed. Anyone can pass this, regardless of his religious or political beliefs, regardless of what issues he wants to speak about, anyone who is not reading from a script with a supervisor standing over him, can pass this.

                  Just pass the shill test, and you can say anything you like.

                  If I allowed glowniggers on this forum, you would manufacture endless official noise to drown out the signal.

                  Freedom of speech is only possible if there is freedom to not listen to endless repetitious mass produced official noise. Injecting repetitious noise into dissident internet forums is a subtler form of the heckler’s veto.

                  You are not being censored. Censorship is silencing certain ideas, arguments, and facts. I am silencing people on the basis of what they are, not what they say. You are not being silenced for what you say, but for what you are strangely unable to say.

                  For it to be possible to discuss thought crimes, it is necessary to exclude from the conversation people who are incapable of committing thought crimes and who attempt to swerve, disrupt, and simply drown out every thought crime conversation.

                  You are not trying to post on this forum to hold a conversation, but to prevent a conversation.

                  “Musk is a Jew. Trump is a Jew. Putin is a Jew. Tucker is a Jew. Jim is a Jew. Soros and Blinken do not matter, because only the Rothschilds matter. The earth is flat. Chemtrails! Holy War on Islam now! Space travel is fake. Building seven fell straight down onto its foundations like a demolition, proving that 911 had nothing to do with Mueller and the FBI running cover for Muslim terrorists. Bitcoin is a Ponzi scam.”

                  Anything else on this forum you think needs saying? That it has all been said already on this forum far too many times proves there is no censorship on this forum. If I allowed government agents to post, there would be nothing on this forum but that stuff and all the real participants would get bored and wander off.

                • Andy says:

                  ”jim says:
                  2024-04-15 at 21:25
                  I don’t censor anyone.

                  You literally just censored Clark.


                • jim says:

                  If I silenced him for what he said, that would be censorship. If I was suppressing certain ideas, arguments, and facts, that would be censorship. I would never do that, it would be entirely pointless in a world where the state is ceaselessly shouting at us from a thousand megaphones, screaming and spitting in our faces.

                  He is being silenced, and you are being silenced, for what you are strangely unable to say.

                  Free speech is impossible, if the state is allowed drown anything it does not like in an endless torrent of noise. I am not censoring, I am protecting freedom of speech. You guys do not post to hold a conversation, but to disrupt, drown out, and silence a conversation.

                • alf says:

                  It is not censorship, it is spam filtering.

                • FrankNorman says:

                  Clark, Jim does not mind if you disagree with his opinions, as long as you acknowledge what those opinions actually are.

                  But if you ignore what he’s saying and pretend he said something he did not say, he is going to delete your posts.

                  If you come here pretending that you are talking to people who believe things that Jim has made it plain that he does not believe, Jim is going to delete your posts.

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