Category: war

For a very long time I have been predicting war internal and/or external, and/or democide internal for around 2025. Twelve years ago I updated this prediction to sometime around 2026. As yet I see no reason to further modify that prediction, though I have a track record for making predictions on Musk time.  We are now a whole lot closer to war external, the imminent fall of Ukraine is likely …

Five months ago I said “Ukraine begins to crumble” and said it has about six months or so of men and material left, but cautiously qualified that incautious prediction by adding that I am endlessly surprised by the Ukraine’s ability to scrape up more men and material. Well, it is now crumbling considerably faster, but does not look like it is going to fall in a month. Russia has been …

The Ukraine is not a nation and has never been a nation. It has always been a province of empire, with its boundaries arbitrarily redrawn from time according to administrative convenience. It has always been ruled, then as now, by satraps of empire who regard themselves as imperials, and the locals as mere expendable provincials. Imperial policy is to use up every last Ukrainian against Russia. They are starting to …

An enormous number of men died, an enormous number of tanks and fighting vehicles were expended in the battle for Avdeevka. Advdeeka was the key strong hold in the line of strong places the Ukrainians have spent ten years building in the Donbass. And the key to the battle of Avdeevka was the Terrikon, an artificial mountain fortress with a flat top covered by maze of bunkers, and the top …

The Ukraine never has been a nation. It has always merely been a province of empire. Ukrainians oft got conscripted to fight in the wars of far away empires, but even when the empire ruled through local satraps, as it does now, the local minions of empire failed to act as if the Ukraine was a nation. Here are Ukrainians celebrating independence day. Notice the near total absence of anyone …

Russia has activated its fresh Northern Front forces, who now find themselves fighting the tattered remnants of Ukrainian forces who had earlier been chewed up on the Eastern front, and sent to guard the Northern front to give them a break. These fresh forces do not have fresh leadership. They are led by battle hardened veterans who have been through hell and back. In modern warfare, you cannot follow Kagan’s …

It seems unlikely that the Ukraine war will end in a negotiated settlement. The Ukrainian muppet state is already starting to disappear, with most of the high elements of the state having moved to mansions in the South of France, Italy, and Canada. They don’t seem keen on America for some reason I am at loss to understand. Zelensky has purchased a palace in London, which is not a strong …

The Ukraine begins to crumble. The Ukraine has about six months of war material left. There army has been severely depleted of men willing to fight. Zelensky has been ruling illegally since March 31, when the last constitutional fig leaf of paper pretence at democracy expired. The pool of potential conscripts is empty – they could easily lower the age of conscription to eighteen or to fifteen, but due to …