Both sides have been fighting in the Ukraine using World War I tactics, and developments in the war have so far recapitulated World War I.
Towards the end of World War I, the Germans, finally realizing they were going to lose the war of attrition, because of the immense industrial capability of America, attempted to regain war of movement, with underwhelming success, and eventually could no longer attempt to do so. They gained considerable territory, which gains merely put them in a worse position to fight the war of attrition. Like the Ukraine, tactical victories but strategic defeats, as with the costly attempt to relieve Bakhmut, which has resulted in them advancing on the flanks of Bakhmut to a position far worse for them in attritive warfare.
The Ukraine has been throwing reserves at various points on the front, with underwhelming success similar to that of the Germans in World War I, which similarly has resulted in gains that put them in a worse position for fighting a war of attrition. They are now moving troops around from one active front to another, which you only do when desperately short of reserves. I previously posted that the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive had started some time ago, and had not been announced for lack of impressive results. That they are redeploying troops involved in active fighting suggests that the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive is now most likely over for lack of reserves, though fog of war makes it hard to speak confidently.
In World War I, the incapacity to mount further attempts at war of movement was followed by 100 days of increasingly rapid and costly German defeats and retreats in attritive warfare, and it became apparent that if the Germans did not make peace on any terms they could get, then eventually there would be attritive warfare all the way to Berlin, most German men would die, and Berlin would be flattened. So they cut a deal where they handed over their heavy weapons, but the army and the nation remained an army and a nation. Without that deal, the war would likely have gone on for years, with enormous costs for everyone, but by far the greatest costs for Germans.
And a sane and capable Global American Empire would accept, in a hundred days or so, the deal that Putin has been offering – assuming it will still be on offer after major retreats and losses in attritive warfare. But a sane and capable Global American Empire would probably have been capable of winning.
So a possible and likely outcome is that the war goes on till Kiev starts being flattened and most Ukrainian men are dead. Which may well take quite a while. At which point there is a significant likelihood that Nato will be thrown in to relieve Kiev.
In a full war between Russia and Nato, neither side has any incentive to refrain escalating all the way to nukes. If Nato intervenes the rationale will be that quick decisive victory is attainable, which is unlikely to be the case. So, nukes.
Do anyone’s nukes still work? My guess is that Global American Empire nukes stopped working a long time ago, but some Russian nukes still work.
Nukes were and are made out of components that deteriorate over time, and have to regularly refurbished, reconditioned and sometimes rebuilt. And if you are not testing, your maintenance process is likely to go off the rails when the men that built those bombs retire. The test ban treaty was a stealth slow motion nuclear disarmament treaty.
If someone’s nukes still work, this is likely to bring the war to a quick and decisive end, with relatively small destruction and casualties. I estimate that only about twenty percent of Americans would die in the course of losing a nuclear war, deaths insignificant compared to abortion and all that, and destruction insignificant compared to the Rust Belt and all the Detroits. No big deal in the broad historical sweep that this blog looks at. If, on the other hand, technological decay means we fight World War I all over again, but this time political decay means that it is fought all the way to the end, the death and destruction could be considerably greater. But perhaps, in a hundred days or so, while the Global American Empire still holds most of the Ukraine, as the Germans still held most of Europe, the Global American Empire will figure out that it is 1918-11-11 all over again.
We shall see.
Jim seems fixated on Lord Krishna as the demon in Hinduism. Yes, Hinduism has demons. Let me point out to him, one of our actual demons.
The perspective of contemporary Hindus as regards this hubristic and prideful fool (not too many other kinds), whose act of letting go a deadly invader whom he had captured in battle, which act opened the floodgates of Islam into India, is the big demon in Hinduism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prithviraj_Chauhan
Modern Hindus still celebrate this fool, they still can’t stop making movies eulogising him, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samrat_Prithviraj
This eulogy of this hubristic prideful fool, is the metaphorical demon in Hindusim
Let’s compare to a similar event in the west, the battle of Maldon, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Maldon
And lets examine Christian perspectives on this foolhardy action by Byrhtnoth’s, whereby he is rightly accused of hubris and the sin of pride.
Why do I not find a single Hindu anywhere who condemn’s PrithiviRaj Chauhan’s action as motivated primarily by Hubris and pride? Not a single Hindu historian (Sita Ram Goel and Ram Swarup included),not a single Hindu religious figure can take it on themselves to condemn this action by this Fool, Prithviraj Chauhan.
This, Gentlemen, I submit, is the demon in contemporary Hinduism as is practiced today.
Char Bans, Chaubis Gaj, Angul Asth Praman
Ta Upar Sultan Hai, Chuko Mat Chauhan
We’re not in a position to criticize our heroes because the reconquista is incomplete.
When you point to a “Khalsa” composed of re-enactors who re-enact with replicas of three hundred year old weapons because re-enacting with replicas of one hundred fifty year old weapons might cause the eye of Sauron to fall upon them, very incomplete.
Was speaking to him as a Hindu in that comment.
[*deleted because that is not what I said and not what I did and I am not going to waste space debating lies*]
Oh, right! You trotted out those verses from a fantasy of Chand Bardai.
Hero, eh? Chattrapati Shivaji, MahaRana Pratap, Maharaj Ranjit Singh, Guru Gobind Singh, Guru HargoBind Singh, Lachit Barphukan, these are our heroes among others.
While PrithviRaj Chauhan does not make it our Villians or traitors list, he does not make it to the list of the above luminaries. No body who wilfully throws away a victory for nothing other than his own foolish pride and hubris and exposes everyone under his care to slaughter must be considered a hero.
You’re just strengthening my point that this Eulogization of PRC and rationalizing/reframing his foolish and hubristic vanity as naivete or chivalry is the metaphorical demon that contemporary Hindus are nursing.
Looked up PrithviRaj Chauhan. Busy aggravating and fighting other Hindu Kings and pissing off loyal allies and servants. Then the Muslims rolled over him.
It might very well have been that he released Ghori as a means to use him as an ally against other Hindu kings. Hero indeed. Sher Singh can be counted on to defend anyone and anything provided it hurts Sikhs and Hindus.
The fact that this b*****d is still Eulogised in India as some sort of Dharmic monarch, that his release of Ghori after capture had to do Chivalry or naivete, these are the demons in contemporary Hindu thought.
Is there any historically conclusive source that Prithviraj Chauhan indeed did capture Muhammad Ghori in the first place? Sure he was defeated at least once by Prithviraj but there seems to be some doubt regarding whether he was actually captured and released.
Yes, you are right that there isn’t actually any evidence that he captured and released him. Muslim sources say that he could have captured Ghori in the first battle or destroy him completely but chose not to press his advantage.
But thats not the point of my rant. The point of my rant is that PRC is celebrated in modern India for his supposed Chivalry in letting Ghori go. Thats the demon in our thought!!!!
What other action based claim to fame does that man have?
[*irrelevant and unresponsive. You are just throwing out random bait*]
[*I might have let this piece of troublemaking through if I had the faintest idea what you are talking about*]
Having absolutely no idea what you are talking about, I silenced it on the general principle that everything you post is enemy poison.
[*deleted for presupposing Sikhs are a martial tribe*]
Sikhs were a martial tribe.
[*deleted for presupposing Globohomo myths*]
Could be more nothing, but it appears that a large push in Zaporozhye direction has commenced. I think Jim is spot on in the the Gayt Ukrainian Counterattack has been going on for weeks, and their just waiting for a substantial victory before “announcing” the “beginning.” But that game can’t go on forever, particularly if the kill count breaks a certain threshold.
Preliminary reports are lots of AFU casualties and destruction, minor salients into the first line, artillery to wake the dead on both sides, and no breakthrough yet. I can’t shake the feeling that this war is building towards some grand catastrophe, and the nuclear power plants are natural magnets for action.
Still not out of reserves!
Blowing up the dam not grand enough?
That nuclear power plant is pretty tough. They will have to take control of it in order for sappers to blow up the nuclear waste bunkers. A tank charge towards the power plant is going to be expected, and the Russians will have prepared a welcome party.
There are attacks all over the place. I thought the Greatest Ukrainian Offensive was petering out, but this looks like the grande dramatic finale. Russians claim to inflict enormous and improbably one sided casualties, but perhaps not altogether improbable when the Ukrainians are trying to rush men who are dug in and armed with heavy weapons. Breaking out of war of attrition into war of movement is apt to be hugely costly and unsuccessfully attempting to break out of war of attrition into war of movement apt to be hugely costlier.
In war of attrition, you hide in your trench and try to land shells on other men hidden in their trench. To begin war of movement, you get into armored vehicles and make a mad rush to those trenches. But after that trench, there is another trench, and between the trenches, mines, and while your vehicle is trying to get over a trench, the guys in the next trench can see you and lob shells on you.
The payoff is that if you get deep enough behind the enemy, he has to get out of his trench to retreat, and is then apt to be slaughtered in retreat, or he can stay in his trench and be ignored until the mop up squad comes for him. Which payoff has been happening, but on an underwhelming scale. So far, Russians have admitted to numerous retreats, some of them tactical defeats, loss of something that matters, but no retreats that would be likely to yield a significant payoff. A tactical defeat that results from an enemy unsuccessfully attempting war of movement is going to be an attritive victory, and will usually yield a strategic victory.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1666787470812360705
Only 1500 men! Sounds like “out of reserves†to me.
Agreed. Sounds like a lot for a probing attack, and not much for a real offensive. Makes sense if the Ukrainians are hard limited by useful manpower, more than by materiel.
Not the finale but the beginning of the main effort.
Bulk of recent western armor has just started arriving on the frontline. It will be a few more days.
Armeeabteilung Steiner to break thru the Russian lines in two more weeks?
Why would you launch a small offensive to tell the enemy you’re coming and then wait days to launch the real offensive without your breakthrough for even being in present near the front? What successful offensive in history has worked like that? lmao
Unlike many I do not claim to be able to predict war outcomes that clearly depend to at least some extent on chance but seriously lol
Because you are executing a plan prepared by people who want you dead.
As I said, the plan was not to win, but to even up the attrition by attriting some more Russians. The man who prepared the plan, most likely Kagan, was more worried that the Ukrainians might win than he was worried that they might lose.
How in the hell can this godforsaken Ukraine-Russia war end short of Ukrainian genocide? How?
They sure as hell can’t vote for a peace candidate. No one can.
All I can guess is NATO-GAE logistical (not political) collapse, coupled with some Russian luck and daring, and maybe parceling out West Ukraine to Poland, Hungary, etc. Or just a rump broke corrupt fuckwitted Galicia run from the Russian embassy (like Belarus?), but with no child bearing women left.
All I can think of is that one grandstanding nerd in a Vietnam War protest newsreel, bellowing about how when you’re so sick at heart that you have to just throw your body on the gears of the machine to make it stop. Where is he now? At the State Department? Georgetown? I began to hate them.
[*deleted for denial of the reality that is smacking the Globohomo in the face*]
Attrition is hurting the Global American Empire right now, and the reason it hurts is that immigrants are unable to replace the missing grandchildren. They just draw welfare and steal stuff. Which is great if you want to destroy flyover country, not so great when you are out of shells and your tanks not in fit condition to roll.
The operation relies on Ukrainian Nazis. Whom Blinken and Nuland intend will be exterminated, along with all other Ukrainians.
If I was in their shoes, just kill Zelensky and all his boys, and then tell the Russians, “ooh, those horrible Nazis. We are not those Nazis. We were just following orders. We will now denazify, decommunize, tell Nato it can take a long walk off a short pier, and then how about we draw a line half way between your trenches and artillery and our trenches and artillery, and everyone stops shooting at anything the other side of the line.” But I am not a nazi. They are not going to act in rational collective self interest, even though that would give them the best outcome.
One problem with simple solution this is that Zelensky has been handing out huge wads of money, lots of people want the money to keep coming, and figure that when things go pear shaped, they will retire to the South of France. So you have a collective action problem. Those that do not have the prospect of retiring to the South of France would prefer to end the war on any terms they can get, those who do have the prospect would like the money to keep coming. And anyone with the power to do something finds money coming his way. Via Zelensky, so does not want to kill Zelensky. The entire Ukrainian economy has been destroyed, and is running on a flood of freshly printed US dollars.
But, if the potential mutineer has a collective action problem, corruptocrats in Kiev also have a collective action problem. Without faith in a Glorious Nationalist Socialist Future for the independent and sovereign nation of Ukraine, they will not hang together either.
When Russia attempted to take Kiev, the invasion failed, because each Nazi on his own initiative took swift and decisive action for the common good of national socialism. That distributed initiative for decisive action is going away. The next time some crisis happens, they will be securing their nest eggs, and preparing for flight to the south of France. The common good of keeping the money flowing will not motivate collective action for the common good the way the glorious national socialist future did. If those at the bottom realize they have been betrayed by their leaders, those at the top will realize they are betraying those under them, and will therefore betray each other, a self fulfilling prophecy.
These guys are hard core. They have been working for Nazism all their lives. They are pure and true. And betrayed. And betrayers. It is a spiritual crisis. People like that do not abandon the faith. But the faith abandoned them when they found their paymaster was a Jew who hated them and intends their deaths. Those capable of collective action will want the Ukrainian nation to survive. But their paymasters want to expend the Ukrainian nation and attrit Russia. On the other hand, Russia wants denazification, and these guys have hated Russia all their lives.
The rationale was “First we defeat Russia, then we can take care of the minor problem of these American Jews”. Except that the American Jews never intended that they defeat Russia. The American Jews intended them to die trying, and in the course of dying, to attrit Russia, one attrition of many attritions. So? Now?
Maidan began in an act of betrayal, when they shot their own people in a false flag operation to discredit the legitimate government. So, now they are stuck, incapable of collective action to save the Ukraine. The one way out is that if incapable of saving it from the Jews, choose to be incapable of saving it from the Russians. I think at some point the government of the Ukraine, as reality of forever war sinks in, is going to suddenly decohere. The organizational activity necessary to continue a war is just going to stop. Probably not soon.
Ukranians will stop organizing. Will GAE organize for them?
There are already some NATO officers doing staff work in Ukraine.
So Putin has to somehow convey to these Nazis that they’re better off with him than against him, on their side of the line anyway. But how? And why hasn’t he been sending out messages to that effect? Or has he?
Or is Putin just thinking “Fuck these guys too. The only good agreement-incapable is a dead agreement-incapable.†Something like that?
If the Russians invented the modern term for “agreement incapableâ€, then I’d presume they have a theory of how to work with it also. I’d guess that it just involves the application of silence and brute force. But what do I know?
What a mess.
The nazis were driving 2014, they are a minor subset now, no point in talking to them directly for russia.
Nah, the Nazis are still what makes everything work. Without them, the Ukraine decoheres.
The Ukraine war proves that Nazis should be treated just as harshly as any other type of leftist. I hope when the war ends the Russians torture them all to death.
Putin must have some Nazis in jail somewhere. Maybe some kind of “truth and reconciliation†show, on Twitter and Telegram, with production values and everything, just to really show to these guys that they’re better off making peace and changing their ways (“It turns out we were Greengrocers the whole time.â€) than fighting Russia to their inevitable death.
This is where Cominator calls me a fag. OK it’s worth it. People DO read this, and there’s a non-zero chance that we come up with some kernel of an idea that actually comes to life-saving fruition out there.
There’s still a choose-our-own-adventure path, however difficult and unlikely, that can lead to a managed US/GAE decline and breakup that still leaves some of us standing.
I don’t know how long the info will stay available on the internet, but the last 6 months have provided plenty of breakdowns, schematics, and explanations of the Russian defensive lines. I think a Ukrainian breakthrough is inevitable, but I also think the smarter elements of the Russian high command know this, and the game plan is to gut the offensive in that breakthrough, then mop up. up what survives on the other side. there are much wiser tacticians here than myself, so I would appreciate some critique and feedback on whether that makes any sense, both as a possible reality and as a theoretical strategy.
I am absolutely a Russian bot in terms of loyalties on this one, so I’m almost afraid to keep tabs on what’s happening. not out of any sense of loyalty to Russia, or Russians, or any of the white orientals. I would see nations of substance stand up to the GAE. it’s kind of like when Trump was running for president. I don’t dare to hope, and even if my hopes are realized, it’s likely that they will be dashed soon after.
Dear God, Nature’s King, Lord of Hosts.
Strike down the wicked. Maintain your people. Raise up the willing and worthwhile that they may be Your instruments here on earth. Put fire in our hearts, iron in our spines, and steel in our hands. O Lord our God, we call on You for deliverance, for strength, for forgiveness.
Deliver us from the temptations of weakness, cowardice, and despair.
Strengthen us that we may stand against the disgusting and damned that mock Your Name.
Forgive us for turning our backs on You, for allowing the perverse and wicked to flourish in peace and wantonness.
Bless Your prophet Jim.
Bless his tribe, his people.
Strengthen the worthy, I pray.
In Your Name, always.
Amen.
From what I can tell they’re trying to break though using tanks instead of overwhelming artillery attacks because they don’t have the shells or artillery for it. Even in WW2, this generally failed. You have to mass artillery and infantry to blow a hole in the line/suppress the defenses and then your tanks and APCs go through the hole. The NATO wunder tanks and APCs are just getting shredded by artillery, air, and ATGMs.
These sort of attacks for Ukraine last year when they were attacking positions very under defended when the Russian’s didn’t have a 4-5 to 1 advantage in artillery. Also HIMARs where ripping the Russian’s new assholes. It’s not working now.
Baring Russian troops suddenly running away (unlikely as long as they have the artillery advantage) a break through are very unlikely. NATO’s thinking is the Russian’s got fucked up when they tried combined arms warfare last year because they’re bad at it. They think NATO can do it right. The reality is the age of the tank is over. APCs might still be useful once your artillery and infantry break a front but it’s going to be a WW1 style grind to break through.
[*deleted for idiocy*]
Please go back to the shill scripts written for a smart and knowledgeable audience.
This is obviously an accurate assessment of war.
We are moving to a situation where if you can see it you can kill it.
Armored charges can still work, and can still make large sweeping gains without the inconvenience of utterly destroying everything you take, but they are getting more and more difficult and costlier and costlier.
The Global American Empire has been carefully and precisely titrating the amount of military aid to prevent the Ukrainians from losing, to give the Ukrainians hope for victory, and to inflict large costs on the Russians without risking the possibility that the Ukrainians might actually win. They want Russians dead, Nazis dead, and Ukrainians dead. This careful and very precise titration went horribly wrong when they ran out of shells and discovered that very little Nato armor was actually in fit condition to actually roll.
So the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive was launched under three terrible handicaps: Not enough shells, not enough tanks, and the battle plan was not a plan for winning by shock warfare and warfare of movement, but merely a plan for inflicting large material and psychological costs on the Russians by shock warfare and war of movement. Not a plan for victory, but a plan for forever war. Instead of using shock warfare and war of movement to win, the plan was merely to use shock warfare and war of movement to attrit.
I see Kagan’s fingerprints all over that plan. When it was drawn up, he had unrealistic expectations of arms delivery to the Ukraine, was badly misinformed about the condition and readiness of the western wonder tanks, and he has unrealistic beliefs about the effectiveness of armored thrusts, based on the previous highly successful Ukrainian thrust. He was more worried that the Ukrainians might win, than that they might lose.
The idea was to balance the Russian shell superiority with western wonder tank superiority, to keep the attrition roughly equal so that the war would go forever. Instead, the attrition has become even more severely unequal.
I keep announcing the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive has not only begun, but is over, and then they launch a new, bigger, thrust, which fails even more horribly with higher casualties than the previous thrust.
If you attempt shock warfare and war of movement, and fail, you get attrited and the enemy does not. Hence the absurdly and improbably lopsided casualty rates announced by the Russians are not actually all that absurd and improbable. Kagan’s plan was to keep the attrition rates carefully balanced, to very precisely titrate attrition, making up for the shell shortage with western wonder tanks. Which plan probably would not have worked even if the tanks had been ready to roll.
This secret strategy of trying to destroy both enemies makes me wonder if the triumvirate of aggrieved Jews (Blinken/Kagan/Nuland) were behind the dam destruction. Cuts off Crimean water, Ukrainian irrigation, and maybe causes a nuclear accident if any reactors are still online.
The video of the explosions look like they might have been from bombs planted within the dam itself. Easy enough for SOCOM or the SAS to do covertly.
Lots of cui bono analysis is focused on whether the Russians or the Ukrainians benefit more. Seems like both are harmed to varying degrees now, with a lot more harm to both on the way.
More than a little like Nord Stream, where both Germany and Russia were harmed, by design, because they are both hated…
> Were the state department Jews who are the actual governors of Ukraine on behalf of globohomo consulted on blowing the dam
Of course
> Does this mean they are the ultimate power over the whole system
No
Zelensky was at the time attempting to attack the Russians across the river, and his forces nearly drowned, and the same for the Russians defending. So I don’t think anyone told him. Or possibly he neglected to inform his generals, whom he suspected might not approve, and they were attacking.
Zelensky didn’t start out evil the way most of them he just sold his soul and his main concern is going thru the motions while he does hookers and blow in his bunker in Poland till his heart explodes.
TC u ma dawg mang but u never miss an opportunity to run damage control for funny eurasian tribesmen every time the subject comes up fr fr no cap
As the battle plan for the Greatest Ukrainian Offensive has unfolded, it has become evident that it had three fundamental flaws: Not enough shells, not enough tanks, and it was planned by people who equally wanted both Ukrainians and Russians dead.
I do not understand why you think that a breakthrough is inevitable. Of course, competent planers would only attempt a breakthrough if there is a good chance of success, but if the decisions about an attempt are made by the GAE (as I think is likely), there is no reason to assume competence.
Not sure what would count as a “break through”. If one layer of an echelon defense is pierced, that is not much of a problem. If an incursion through Russian lines should become likely, doesn’t Russia have sufficient reserves in the area to prevent it?
They have had to throw in reserves here and there. They have lost some turf here and there. But, unless they are lying Baghdad Bob style, so far most attempts at breakthrough have led to the collapse of the attackers, not the attacked.
Unless something really bad has happened since I last checked.
Nato forces, Nato tactics, and Nato weapons are designed to operate under absolute Nato air superiority. They are running into Russian air superiority. Russian air to ground and Russian air superiority is holding the line. Or it was as of Wednesday night.
absolutely. And from what we’ve seen from the RF, they are about as creative as black people without white managers or jewish producers, so I don’t expect anything fancy or elegant. but if they were in command of their wits and forces to an equal degree, steeped in the proper religion and motivated to actually win, I think it would be a very impressive move to let the enemy organize and punch through, then poor resources into a kill box. this is obviously a very dangerous strategy, one that would require expert command and control, as well as incredibly well trained and disciplined soldiers able to fight a tactical withdrawal, which has to be one of the most challenging military maneuvers of all. with the current crop of world leaders and military commanders, I don’t think we’ll see such tactics, but I can’t imagine a better use case for demonstrating nuclear supremacy as well as total commitment than orchestrating a false breakthrough followed by a cluster of tactical nuclear strikes to utterly annihilate an army. That’s the stuff of science fiction, but not because of any technical limitation, only spiritual limitations.
The combat is ongoing in territory the Russians consider part of the Russian state. They won’t be eager to nuke there. Besides, any leader has to be certain nukes will produce decisive victory before ordering their deployment. There is *nothing* in the world that would radiate failure more than an ineffective nuclear deployment.
Excellent point.
They put a lot of force into an attempt to counter encircle Bakhmut. No significant or substantial breakthrough occurred.
What has been happening so far is that they break through a short distance, suffer terrible casualties, because they are driving into the mouths of cannons, collapse.
Attritive warfare is that men skulking in trenches hurl high explosives at each other. Attempting a breakthrough requires you to be driving an armored vehicle in plain sight. It is costly.
Russians claim that every break through so far has been absorbed, has quickly run out of men and tanks, though they have lost a bit of turf here and there.
First videos of Leopard tanks on fire.
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1666824571553497088
US officials to CNN:
“Ukrainian forces have suffered losses in heavy equipment and soldiers as they met greater than expected resistance from Russian forces in first attempt to breach Russian lines in the east in recent days, two senior US officials tell CNN.”
https://www.cato.org/blog/nearly-third-gen-z-favors-home-government-surveillance-cameras-1
Either the stats are fake and gay or a generation of kids raised by single mothers were badly abused either by the single moms or the guys she brought home and want cameras in the home to prevent child abuse.
For most of history quickly and accurately bringing a target under fire from long range non-line-of-sight ordnance required pre-prepared positions with the firing tables already worked out – which proved very deadly for anyone attempting open movements on such positions.
In places without prep-prepared ordnance however, things become much more in flux, indirect fire that is both fast and accurate became much more difficult, and direct fire predominates.
The main virtue of Guderian’s panzer tactics wasn’t so much that tanks were all concentrated into one place – lots of other fighting forces at the time had tank-heavy formations – but that mobility in general was concentrated into one place. The troops, artillery, and supply delivery companies all being on wheels (even if the latter was good old Horsepower) was the most important factor, affording high operational tempos, such as parlaying break-throughs into areas outside of prepared firing zones. There was no point in having lots of tanks if nothing else could operate with them. The chief value-add of the tank itself of course was the fact that it had a big gun that can point and shoot high explosives at enemy positions mounted on a mobile platform.
When you have ‘agile’ firecontrol via reconnaissance-strike complexes though, the idea of ‘breaking through to areas of flux’ doesn’t really apply, because the ‘firing table’ can be made on demand anywhere spotting platforms are; whether they are on foot, on wheels, or in the air.
It’s been pretty clear for a while now that the Russian general staff’s plan was to simply wait and prepare for the Ukrainian offensive. Which means they ended up waiting a long time.
There is something to be said for stealing marches on your opponent; letting your opponent operate at his leisure, picking and choosing his moments, go at his own pace getting his ducks lined up, always leads to more trouble even if you are in an otherwise advantageous position. The number of deep strikes via gerans (which they seem to have started producing locally) and other means massively increased in the last month in response to build-ups of equipment in Ukraine. These doubtlessly had an effect. Such measures by themselves don’t necessarily constitute sufficient disruption however. The age old tactics of raiding, marauding, and chevauchee by small bands of men always apply, especially when the lines are seemingly static otherwise. A ‘front line’ is often more a convenient fiction than definite threshold, and can be very porous in many places in reality. Pulling reserves for a major thrust somewhere means even greater porosity, which can be taken advantage of by rangers sallying back and forth to destroy vulnerable targets of interest, not necessarily sticking around to occupy dirt. Even a small number can have outsize effect in inducing the opponent to disperse forces to cover every possible zone of ingress – which in turn puts him on the back foot operationally, and opens up opportunities for major attacks of your own.
One of the other most successful operations of the first war of Wilsonian aggression was the south-west offensive into Autria-Hungary by General Alexei Brusilov. Originally intended as a merely diversionary feint, it achieved results far outside of operational expectations, and basically knocked the Austro-Hungarians out of the war as a major factor.
Much like the Prussian military tradition, he delegated freehold to local commanders to plan the details of their offenses in their respective sectors, who naturally are in better positions than anyone to understand their particular situations. Additionally, he made extensive use of scouts and fleigers to sketch out enemy positions and hard points for targeting by his artillery (‘area bombardment’ was the usual method for use of indirect fire in offenses theretofore). The broad spread of operations across the entire front led to his opposite numbers in the AHE staff locking themselves in indecision, unsure where the main thrust was going to be. Brusilov himself of course was also unsure; the whole point was for the main thrust to be decided by whatever probing attacks met with the least resistance.
(The consistent theme of military history is more proceduralized armies run via every decision being double-checked and validated by a central command, being easily dispatched by armies operating more via subsidiarity, where decision making in all areas is both better and faster, which is also better. The other consistent theme of military history is armies being consumed by bureaucratic fungal spores and the cycle repeating all over again.)
With certain innovations in techne however, what used to be weeks long processes of scouts sighting positions, bringing the information back, painstakingly sketching them out in detail, and calculating firing tables via maps, can now be done in a matter of moments. It is not just defense that can be easier against mechanized opponents, offense against hardened positions can be much easier too. Sniper teams roaming for men to hunt can just as easily use rangefinding equipment for calling on heavier fires as well. ‘Reconnaissance by fire’ is the default mode of offensive in a contemporary war, while the idea of ‘breaking through to areas of flux’ becomes little more than cargo-cult ritual action without useful functional effect; and arguably, was never actually the primary factor to offensive successes begin with (the spectacular breakthroughs in the western campaign of 1940 had much more to with the operational paralysis of the French army, as German columns wove around units sitting in strong points like potted plants, waiting for a telephone call from Central).
[*deleted for stupidity and ignorance*]
this is the script for making the alt right look stupid. No one believes you are alt right, so it just makes your shilling operation look stupid.
What I don’t get is blitzkrieg in WW2 involved heavy use of close air support to destroy any opposing troop concentrations in the path of advance, Russia has I think overwhelming air superiority why aren’t they using it.
Modern Anti air is deadly, Russia lost 3 or 4 aircraft on the Belarussian border just a few days ago.
They are using their air support, helicopters have been operating non stop against UKR attacks. Just not deep in enemy lines.
The same advancements in firecontrol that made it easy to shoot at things on the ground from the air, also made it easy to shoot at things in the air from the ground.
Close air support in WW2 was largely overrated. For example, in the D-Day operations, there were something like over 300 attacks by fighter-bombers on tanks, while only like 10 or 20 were confirmed to have actually been knocked.
Fun factoid: French Partisans did far more damage, in gross and strategically, to German infrastructure than the whole preparatory bombing campaign, in less time and for much cheaper by every measure.
I’m calling bullshit the battle of the Bulge had to wait for bad weather because of allied air superiority and Rommel wanted his tanks (he didn’t get them) right behind the beaches because they couldn’t move them down the roads due to allied air superiority. Air support was decisive for the Germans during the battle of France and decisive for the allies when they retook France. It’s not the intrastructure its that air can absolutely destroy any troop concentrations that are in the open as well as any prepared positions unless they are also designed to resist bombing.
CAS could be effective if used with heavy cannons (1.5 to 3 inches) or rockets, because these could be aimed by the pilots, but use of free flying bombs on ground targets was largely ineffective for anything except area targets, and this constituted the majority of most uses of aircraft against surface targets. Concerns are not always completely rational.
One of the biggest values aerial platforms provided was overwatch, spotting enemy positions and movements. Cloud cover and stormy weather allowed for troops movements to proceed without notice until contact.
I can’t tell what you mean, whether you’re saying my statement is bullshit, or the Battle of the Bulge Narrative is bullshit, but in terms of the Partisan campaign v. Aerial Bombing campaign, feel free to substantiate via Longest Day by Ambrose, Second World Wars by Hanson, and multiple others. The efficacy quotient was due to partisans knowing the terrain, striking with precision, and being able to follow up and/or maximize, while airmen had to guess and carpet bomb and hope and rely on army Intel.
CAS in the context of air superiority is very effective, but the allies didn’t have air supremacy before D-Day.
I’m saying your statement is bullshit here, on the Western front in WWII the French and British lost in 1940 because the Germans had almost total air superority and the reverse happened in 44-45. The Bulge was a brief period of apparent German success because the weather grounded the allied air force. Close air support was decisive and made life impossible for the army on the other end of it.
Close air support was absolutely decisive in WWII on the Western front. It was less important on the Eastern front because of the size (the air forces just couldn’t cover everywhere), the Germans lacked fuel to do so even early on and on the other side because the Soviet air force really didn’t know what they were doing.
@Com,
Saint John is talking about CAS being ineffective in destroying targets in WW2 and he’s correct. What it was effective at was shock, suppression, and disruption.
The D-day air campaign was so effective because it suppressed the German defenses and mobile reserves by attacking during all daylight hours resulting in Germans tank crews jumping out of their tanks over and over again despite the danger being pretty limited. It wasn’t until the advent of laser guided bombs that air attacks really became something closer to artillery in terms of kill numbers.
I think we are confusing bombing in WW2 (which was very very inaccurate and it took 10s of thousands of bombs dropped generally to destroy industrial targets) with dive bombed style close air support that attacked vehicles.
The Germans in 1944 were clearly of the view that the danger of the latter for vehicles and troop concetrations in the open was far more than merely psychological. Rommel himself was nearly killed (I think this was after D-Day) by a strafing allied fighter (than forced to suicide anyway after he recovered).
Rommel almost died because he’s driver lost his shit and drove him off the road at high speed throwing him out of the car. If he’d parked the car and everyone gotten out and hit the deck then Rommel would have been fine.
Tanks in general where in almost no danger from fighter bombers. Softer trucks where in danger from them but rarely did fighter bombers do all much damage. The problem was the shock effect. Troops would flee and scatter when under air attack, it sapped their morale because they couldn’t fight back, and it would greatly slow down columns of armor due to crews repeatedly getting out of their tanks to hide in ditches.
When Guderian crossed the Somme river it was not the accurate Stuka bombing that allowed his tanks to get across, rather it was Stuka who missed their targets that then repeatably dived on French defenses without bombs that suppressed the defenses. Shock attacks are a very real factor in warfare.
Look at this way, drive bombers had a hell of a time hitting targets as large battle ships during WW2. The chances of blowing up even a single tank with a bomb was pretty close to zero.
“Rommel almost died because he’s driver lost his shit and drove him off the road at high speed throwing him out of the car. If he’d parked the car and everyone gotten out and hit the deck then Rommel would have been fine.”
But the plane would have destroyed the car but yeah probably the people were unlikely to get.
“Tanks in general where in almost no danger from fighter bombers.”
Rommel did not agree with you when asking for his tanks to all be put immediately behind the Normandy and Calais beaches. He didn’t think the driving columns would just be disrupted he thought most of the tanks would be destroyed.
Do you have a quote for that? My understanding is he thought they’d never make it to the beaches in time due to the fighter bombers, which is correct.
Dumb bombing including dumb bombing with a dive simply wasn’t that effective on anything smaller than a hectare.
When you have 2000-5000 pound bombs, that’s when the area of effect starts becoming large enough to cover spot targets; but planes that could carry that ordnance were usually dropping at high level anyways.
Severian hit the nail on the head in terms of the quality of AD. As well, Russia has to balance a potential, actual, shooting war with NATO, and therefore they need to keep as much of their Air Force intact as possible, because it’s going to wither on the vine, for both sides, far faster than anyone is acting like as possible or predicting.
Yeah maybe this. Most Russian power is being held in reserve…
Are using it. Heavily.
It seems that the last of the Ukranian air defense systems may have been destroyed relatively recently.
There is recent footage from KA-52 firing guided missiles at western armored vehicles, including a French wheeled tank. Why was the chopper not shot at? These are NATO wonder tanks in an essential offensive. Tape a conscript with a MANPAD to the roof if nothing else. Even if you used a stinger missile on every targeting drone, it might keep the tanks alive long enough to shoot something and transmit the footage back for use on CNN.
Previously, the Russian CAS I’d seen was always lobbing rockets from low and far, then turning around and running. Surely this would be less efficient but it could be done with much less risk from air defense.
Alternatively, it might be that this was a unique case. Maybe the chopper missiles outrange MANPADs and the good air defense (S-300) couldn’t follow the offensive.
I lean towards The NATO being out of air defense entirely. They have expected to use jets for that for a long time, the stingers were sent in a while ago, and it was a struggle to send even a single patriot system. It would make sense for this to be one of the first things that they run out of.
Ka-52s can sit up to 10km away with their guided missiles I think, which is more than portable AA like stinger. Ukrainians could try to move better AA to the front but that would put it in danger. Hence the turkey shoot footage we’re getting of Russian Helis knocking out Ukr columns.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/tpvLFd9AHZHD/
God bless Grenatgeschutzen.
Trump federal indictment, even compared to last one relatively speaking nobody on all sides seems to care really.
I am getting the feeling that faction that would have eliminated Trump is out of puff, falsifying my prediction that the leftmost always win.
They did a sharp right turn on the way to the left singularity, suddenly abandoning ever more brutal and lawless enforcement of ever more frequent boosting, in favor of war with Russia, a measure that resembles clearing the decks of female emancipation on the way to war with Nazism. If they want to win, a whole lot more deck clearing is in order.
Putin’s multipolar order is an existential threat to the rules based order, aka the Global American Empire. This is making some of them think. Maybe some of them are finding “Make America Great Again” appealing. If you are in power in the “rules based international order”, and it looks like it is about to sink underneath you, making America Great Again sounds attractive. I think Putin has suddenly given Trump a whole lot quiet supporters in the elite, similar to the quiet supporters that are running cover for Musk.
How to rout internal progressive pederast-nigger-communist hegemon at this inflection point, then, if this situation emulates 1933 pivot into wartime economy circa the FDR presidency’s 6+ year preparation for total “denazification” of Germany? If the present progressive faction holding the reigns of power possess aptitude to permit+comprehend framework “rectifiying” consequences of their own holiness spiral, means some employing power comprehend reality to certain extent – is only insurance continual parallel-institution establishment (vis-a-vis expressive and exalting cryptocurrencies permitting plurality of economic functions baked into its cake) and/or best-case opportunist nettle-grasping when Caesarian syzygy aligns in the fated sky?
If they are sane enough and competent enough to do this, they are sane enough and competent enough to make it difficult to remove them. On the other hand, the left is going to be demoralized and de-energized.
But FDR was a dictator. Being one man, could do what needed to be done. Today, the left is led by legion. The saner elements of the left have to have one man to do what needs to be done, and that man is Trump. That makes a big difference. If they step back from madness as FDR did, they will not be able to act as FDR did, because legion.
Leftmost always wins in peacetime, rightmost always wins wars. A lot of Jews may now be thinking, “Y’know, Trump was always nice to us no matter how badly we treated him, and if we don’t bring him back, our money will be worthless paper and every Jew in the West and Israel will suffer a horrible death at the hands of our beloved diversity.”
My question is, if Globoschlomo sides with Trump, should we?
If only for the salt.
All that salty salt. This time around they will be depressed and despairing instead of outraged and enraged. This will give us room and opportunity.
But Trump, I fear, will believe they are agreement capable. Which they seemingly will be, but it will be an illusion. He will cut a deal, as Reagan did. This will be extremely bad for us. A vengeful Trump who is going to right the wrongs done to him and his people would be great. But he will probably bluster about vengeance, then cut a deal that will be as great a disaster as Reagan’s.
On the other hand, if not Trump, probably the nukes fly. Let me think. What would be better? Trump or nukes? Thinking. It is a difficult choice. Nukes have their upside. There is definitely appeal in the prospect of no more Washington, no more New York, no more LA. But I have family in one such location, so not entirely keen on nukes.
Well, I’m rather keen on nukes if it means no more New York, no more Berlin, but I doubt nukes would mean that. Russia must know how poisonous these cities are for the West. When Russia uses nukes they might instead use them to destroy what little manufacturing capacity there is still in the West.
Sure, that is more distributed and would require more nukes, but even destruction of a tiny factory or a power plant would hurt the military power of the GAE more than the destruction of any leftist hive that doesn’t produce anything.
How distributed and duplicated is bank and financial transaction data? If not very, then a few data centers out would be absolute chaos.
Now probably you can recover something pretty close to the previous state with a little effort under some kind of judicially-sponsored process with competent scrutineers but even that would require a lot of trust that just isn’t around. If transactions up to the end of last quarter are very distributed, but up to this morning are not, would rolling back a few months be sufficient?
At least in Germany it is redundant, and the data centers are not in Berlin
Redundant sure, but just how redundant? And also I figure redundancy isn’t a fixed quantity but a function of time since settlement.
If the statements I get from my bank and broker were signed then it would be a lot easier since you’d have enormous redundancy built in,
Aryaman, what is your point? I’m arguing that Russia, even in nuclear war, has no reason to nuke our big cities as they don’t produce anything.
Now, if all bank and financial data centers were destroyed, we might get some unpleasant chaos. In Germany these data centers are not in Berlin and I doubt all US data centers are in New York, LA or some other progressive hive.
So are you arguing that Russia would have even more reason not to nuke the big cities and instead some nuke some data centers outside of the big cities to do more damage?
Definitely are thinking that. With the failure of the Greatest Ukrainian Counter Offensive, I can feel a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of leftists suddenly spilled their Starbucks coffee and looked around fearfully lest a black man be coming to kill them.
The Jews are just the middle management of power as always though. The most power middle management has is they can sometimes sabotage decrees from on high that they hate.
You’ll know whether they intend to EpStein Trump by whether or not the venue is in Florida or it transfers to DC (which apparently can happen).
A black man sent by a rival Democrat so his death could be passed off as a “robbery gone wrong”, like the nigger who shot Seth Rich and forgot to take his wallet, or all those “muggings” and “carjackings” in The Sopranos.
Off topic and probably crazy, but if I wanted to kick start an ancestor worship cult could it be done by ensuring my body be embalmed like Lenin’s and be put on display in a family mausoleum. Also indoctrinate my primary heirs to do the same along with instilling “family traditions.” My relatives own a burial mountain for clan members since the 1500s(?) and regularly visit. They are nominally “Christian.” Individual graves are more or less mounds of dirt with big engraved demarcation stones… it lacks the in-your-face-USA-
arroganceboldness I’m accustomed to, and besides I’m an American offshoot far away from Asia and my heart resides in Dixie land anyways.Syncretized ancestor worship cults with Christianity seem to work fairly well under hostile governments. i.e. the Moonies and Mormons… so long as you don’t get Wacoed (Branch Davidians as a group survived even if Koreshians did not). Effectively mini monarchies. They also seem to surprisingly play nice with each other. If every single one of us formed a cult, in several generations it could number in the hundreds of thousands if not millions and if we encourage spiritual heirs to take a segment of the flock to form their own cults it could be more. So long as we agree upon certain tenants like those in the Council of Nicaea, we could maintain a semblance of cooperation regardless of being decentralized regional mini monarchies.
I like Aidan’s idea of African conquest, but I think it needs the spiritual security needs be sorted out before and not after conquest. Good planning goes a long ways. Without a faith, he would be simply be recruiting disaffected mercenaries, but with a faith it would be a crusade.
The logic of ancestor worship inexorably tends towards anti Christianity. Indeed this was a common critique made by pagan scholars of the time. Even if you pull it off in this generation, it won’t have legs.
>The logic of ancestor worship inexorably tends towards anti Christianity. Indeed this was a common critique made by pagan scholars of the time.
That is an excellent insight. If we believe Saint Paul to be part of the apostolic succession, then Christianity is saddled with Galatians 3:26:
>All of you indeed are children of God through faith in Christ Jesus.
>27 For as many of you as were baptized into Christ have clothed yourselves with Christ.
>28 There is neither Judean nor Greek (that is neither Jew nor Gentile), there is neither slave nor free, there is not male and female; for all of you are one in Christ Jesus.
If, on the other hand, I were to argue that Saint Paul was preaching his own made-up creed of which Jesus would not have approved, I will be excommunicated as a heretic, and I might as well call myself a modern pagan.
I typed into a search engine “God is no respecter of persons kjv” and this was the result:
“The phrase “God is not a respecter of persons” is found in the King James Version of the Bible, specifically in Romans 2:11. This means that God does not show favoritism or partiality. In Acts 10:34-35, the apostle Peter explains that God accepts those who fear Him and work righteousness, regardless of their nationality or background.”
Sounds good to me, especially the last bit. Fits in quite well with your St. Paul quote. Throw in the parable of the Good Samaritan, also.
“Hey guys, this verse totally says that there is no difference between women and men.”
“Yes, no one in all of the history of Christianity takes it literately, but trust me bro, he totally meant it literally.”
Paul was talking to people who were holiness spiraling in a different direction that what we are dealing with. Context matters a lot with holy texts.
In Latin Rome it was tradition to create a detailed mould of the departed patrifamilias’ face in repose, for the fashioning of an imperishable mask, that can take its place on the mantle of the Home, so that one’s forefathers are always watching over them, Reminding.
Plastination. Just don’t let that guy flay your remains.
From La Wik
On topic (for once):
Here are 2 videos, both worth watching, but approximately the same lecture with variations in nuance as well as production quality. The Max Otte one is better quality, but the
Max Otte version: https://youtu.be/-NzpKCFP6TE
Committee for the Republic version:https://youtu.be/v-rHBRwdql8
I know my simping for academics is probably less than appreciated (fuck off Pax, you damn chink perfectionist winkysmileyface), but I was struck by the overlap between Mearsheimer’s content and lexicon with Jim’s. Whether Mearsheimer is lurking JB (the thot plickens) or Jim is delving into the thought of the smartest living & working International Relations theorist, the implications are the same: these assembled thoughts & theories are accurate and powerful.
This image is just incredible
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyMEiu0XoAUU_2q?format=jpg&name=large
Probably the greatest Russian propaganda victory since the war began.
Guys help me understand. How are there any Ukrainians left who really believe that Zelensky or Nudelman (Nuland) or Uncle Sam give two shits if they live or die at this point?
Are they all Greengrocers? Always have been?
Where can I go to get an idea of where they’re coming from? Because from this side of the tracks I can’t even imagine. If the Spetznaz rolled into my town I’d be like “Where the hell have you guys been? Have a bratwurst.â€
I know Twitter’s full of goofy Slava Ukraini cheerleaders in Virginia or someplace. I get that. But if I want to understand where the earnest Ukrainian believers are coming from, where can I go for a cross-section of that vibe?
They have to be the most pathetic NPCs on earth. No mutinies, draft riots, very little draft dodging even, no fraggings… its like Japanese in WWII level of zombie obedience tier thinking.
There was a video posted not too long ago about a NCO who killed the company commander when he ordered another suicidal attack. Since the Russians really got the meat grinder going it’s been happening bit by bit but it’s not getting coverage in the west.
Nah, I have met some Ukranian men of military age in my town in Germany. I assume that there is nothing special about my town and that many Ukranian men are in every other German town. From this I conclude there is massive draft dodging. Draft dodging is simply much more difficult for those who did not leave Ukraine in time.