Russia is winning, and the only possible peace settlement is to give them everything that they demand: Freedom and safety for Russian minorities in adjacent countries, Nato pullback from Russian borders, freedom for old type Christianity near Russia – and of course, international recognition of the borders that they claim. All of them.
Anything less is not going to fly, except as a temporary ceasefire to allow for Ukrainian elections, and Russia is not interested in Ukrainian elections unless freedom is first returned to the Ukraine.
The war in the Ukraine is a war of attrition, and progress in a war of attrition is measured not in square kilometres, but in dead bodies. In World War One, Germany was defeated in France, not in Germany. When Germany surrendered in World War One, the surrender temporarily left the German army in control of Belgium and much of France.
The Russian army is recruiting about thirty thousand volunteers a month, and is growing rapidly. The Ukrainian army is dragging about thirty thousand conscripts of the streets a month, and is shrinking rapidly. Russian advances are not the Russian objective. They are rather a consequence of a section of the Ukrainian front line dying, and fresh half trained Ukrainian conscripts being dragged away from their brief training to villages a short distance behind the former front line to establish a new front line. A gap appears in the Ukrainian front line, and the gap is plugged with fresh meat a short distance back from the former front line. The rate of Russian advance is insignificant in terms of area gained. It is significant as a measure of the rate at which Ukrainian front line troops cease to exist. Advance is not the Russian objective, but an inconvenient side effect of the Russian objective.
In the first of this series of posts I said:
The killing and dying could continue for years, but the writing is on the wall. It has been on the wall for some time. The armies of the Ukraine might be able to hold the line for years, and then collapse, or months, and then collapse.
Unfortunately, looks like being years. But not so many years that Trump can kick the can down the road to his successor.
He is going to catch flak if he gives the Russians everything they demand. He is also going to catch flack if the Russians just take everything they demand.
In my previous posts on the topic I predicted the war would probably be over by now. It is not over. I also predicted that if it was not over, Trump would find himself in an Emperor Hirohito situation. He is now in an Emperor Hirohito situation.
No man rules alone. In order to make peace, Emperor Hirohito had to gently assist some high ranking Japanese to voluntarily commit suicide. If Trump has decided to make peace, he is in a similar pickle.
You can start to notice a consistent theme whenever you skim ukrop agitprop outlets on youtube or xitter one month, and check back a month or so later. There is always constant talk about ‘ukrainian attack in XYZ taking PZQ’. And of course, there is never talk about revisiting any issues of past ‘ukrainian attack in XYZ taking PZQ’. Which gives the game away; you attack some place an occupy it for a day, getting your headline for the news cycle. You fall back. And you attack again the next week, to get your next storm of headlines for the news cycle; which fulfills the signal-boosting impressions in the Ukrainian Winning Simulator.
Military strategy as psychotherapy.
Exactly so.
Pro-Azovism is a (death) cult suffering severe cognitive dissonance, hence the psychology of “Nooo! We just need to support them MOAR and give them MOAR weapons and billions of dollars and then *smug faggot face* they will defeat the eBul Russians in like an hour and spread Human Rights Anal Democracy and also how DARE you suggest that they’re destined to lose that’s like so Le Evil of you…”
Just like with the Best Ever Counter-Attack in All Human History that fell flat and fizzled out within a week, and the rest of their very fake and very gay propaganda ops. The cognitive dissonance among Occidental soy-addled Reddit-browsing Azov-fans must be truly jarring, so they’re compelled to come up with increasingly more bizarre, more pathetic, and more desperate explanations for why their beloved Azov Regime is losing — mostly self blame, as typifies cults in decline, also muh Bad Orange Man and muh incel chuds — and ackshually “Here is how they can still win.” Yeah, anyone supporting that Judeo-Nazi Regime at this point, and who is not directly on the CIA’s payroll, should be assumed to suffer any number of mental retardations and defects, and be deemed INCOMPETENT to discuss politics in general.
And outside the Eurocuck and boomercuck demographics, there is indeed scarcely any support for the Azovites. Any other impression is the result of an immense astroturf campaign by the (((usual suspects))).
The European governments are mostly gay demon worshippers propped up by the GAE-in-Exile sitting somewhere in Canada and Britain, and President Trump should absolutely not let them drag him into conflict with Russia, whatever provocations and false flag operations they have planned – and I trust that, indeed, he won’t let the European Satanists (who are backed by Democrat Satanists) drag him any further into a conflict against a white and Christian civilization that also has functioning nukes. It is, moreover, in Western Civilization’s interest to have peace and full reconciliation between America and Russia; and the Eurocucks can and should go to hell if that bothers them.
One quibble about WW1 Germany won WW1 against all the European powers it lost because America entered.
Still, it lost in France, not in Germany.
Sorry to break the seal you have around Putin’s cock, but given Putsy called in and allowed formal DPRK and CN troops, and given Putsy’s diplomatic about face, the West is not going to let those slide and will keep supporting UA, and will eventually send in a standoff defensive line, call it building Berlin Wall 2.0, the US will continue covertly supplying intel.
US and RU will never fully reconcile until RU drops all vestiges of it’s SocCom era, and ditches its relations with the SocCom’s CN and DPRK. The US will make peace with a Tsar, but not with Commies and Belligerant Tyrants.
The west is running out of Ukrainians, and cannot replace them with western troops unless it tosses gay and feminism overboard as it did in 1933.
The Ukrainian army is today far smaller and has far less training and battle experience than it did in 2023. It is heading to zero.
When the Russians interview a prisoner, he was usually dragged off the streets a few months or weeks before he was taken prisoner, and all his comrades are dead.
Inexperienced and untrained brigades are probably over represented among Russian prisoners, so the average Ukrainian soldier probably has more battle experience than the average Ukrainian prisoner, but it cannot be hugely more. The Ukrainian army is all newbies, the Russian army all vets.
The Europeans figure they can only supply fifteen thousand troops, enough for two weeks of the war, and I don’t believe they can supply even that. The European spear has no tip. If they attempt to put a defensive line in the Ukraine, it will consist of camp followers and brass covered bureaucrats. They think they have very few fighting men, and I suspect that the more they look for fighting men, they will find that they do not find any.
They originally said one hundred thousand, which turned into thirty thousand, which turned into fifteen thousand, and I expect fifteen thousand to become a hundred, and that hundred to turn out to be base employees and brass covered bureaucrats.
Russia is preparing for war with Nato, but Nato is not preparing for war with Russia. If we were preparing for war with Russia, we would start with the Russian measures against gay, and the Chinese measures against divorce.
Do you think there are people in the military who are actualling talking about exactly this, with their regular speaking voices, at least privately to each other? You don’t have to prove it to me either way, but what do you think?
Until “Top Gun Maverick”, I’d have said “no way”, but now I’m not so sure. I just couldn’t believe that movie got made. It was like a flying pig or a talking dog. The negro and Mexican fucked up in the end and the white jocks, white lady and white nerd saved the day.
Imfuckingpossible.
Pretty sure the words are being spoken, privately.
Do we have a good explanation for why the Rona collapsed just as Putin launched his attack? Is the State Department (or miscellaneous deep state) incapable of focusing on two things at once or was the Rona intentionally dropped? Would the State Department (or miscellaneous deep state) be able to continue the Ukraine conflict as it’s forced to defend Taiwan from Chiner?
It seems more likely that the regime wanted to pivot away from the holocough, despite bitter-clinger Karens refusing to let go. There had already been several related trial balloons like the “vax amnesty” op-ed.
Vax politics were causing real no-shit civil unrest, GDP was going down the toilet because no one was going to work, kids and young athletes were dying from Suddenly in front of massive audiences… it was simply untenable.
But the shark cannot stop swimming, else it dies; it can only swim in a different direction. And Muh Russia was a convenient new direction, having been focus-tested in the years of “The Resistance”, and being a perennial favorite of the neocon chickenhawks.
It’s certainly no coincidence that Covidianism collapsed around the same time Kiev became Kyiv, but it’s no very complicated explanation either; they just pivoted from “domestic bogeyman” to “foreign bogeyman”, same as it’s ever been really.
sudden swerve in the path to the left singularity
The awesome might of the Covid demon was incompatible with war, so thrown overboard in the same way and for the same reasons as feminism was thrown overboard in 1933.
Feminism is more deeply entrenched. Next up is gay, after that feminism, after that World War Three.
Our best chance is to have enough threat of World War Three that Thermidor get on board with eradicating gay and feminism, and then avoid World War III.
Or we could administer long distance swimming lessons to the radical left, followed by long distance swimming lessons for Thermidor.
1933 there were some competent people in charge who could identify a problem an then act to solve it. So feminism was thrown overboard. I doubt there are people anywhere near a Western EU government who could identify such a problem today