Firstly, America cannot have peace with anyone until it has a sovereign who can say “war with the outgroup” and every member of the ingroup is at war, or imprisoned as a traitor, and can say “peace with the outgroup”, and everyone in the state apparatus is at peace with the outgroup, or gets sent in chains to the outgroup. All our previous living arrangements with India, China, and Russia have been torpedoed by elements of the state apparatus acting …
Category: war
The Russian invasion of the Ukraine is a just war
This post stolen wholesale from this excellent comment According the Christian doctrine of Bellum Iustum, just war, just war requires Jus Ad Bellum, the right to go to war. Jus In Bello, Justice in War. jus post bellum, Just ending of the war. Jus Ad Bellum requires: Auctoritas competens, right authority. You need a sovereign who can make peace or war, and if he says “war” everyone in his ingroup is at war with the outgroup, or hangs as a …
Delusion and end of the Ukraine war
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle. Hello? The west has been succumbing in every battle. A deal should have been made in July 2023 when it became obvious that the Ukraine was trapped in a war …
End Game in Ukraine
War is a test of will and capability. The test has been run. We now know the will and capability of the parties. I have repeatedly predicted that the war will end real soon now, and repeatedly been wrong. My repeated error was to assume that individuals would respond rationally to the situation, once it was revealed. Rational individual behaviour for a Ukrainian who is not yet in the army is to go into hiding, and most Ukrainians have done …
State of the Ukraine war
About eight months ago I said that the Ukraine was starting to crumble, and the war would likely end in summer. Well, summer is over, and the Ukraine still stands, but is now crumbling a whole lot faster. Hat tip Defense Politics Asia: Russia is still fighting a war of attrition, and will probably continue to do so, for whenever they try war of manoeuvre, get hammered. But war of attrition is spontaneously turning into of war of manoeuvre. The …
War internal and/or external, and/or democide internal
For a very long time I have been predicting war internal and/or external, and/or democide internal for around 2025. Twelve years ago I updated this prediction to sometime around 2026. As yet I see no reason to further modify that prediction, though I have a track record for making predictions on Musk time. We are now a whole lot closer to war external, the imminent fall of Ukraine is likely to result in further escalation and more direct Nato involvement, …
Ukraine still crumbling
Five months ago I said “Ukraine begins to crumble” and said it has about six months or so of men and material left, but cautiously qualified that incautious prediction by adding that I am endlessly surprised by the Ukraine’s ability to scrape up more men and material. Well, it is now crumbling considerably faster, but does not look like it is going to fall in a month. Russia has been fighting a war of attrition, while the Ukraine has been …
State of the war
Wars happen because some people expect one outcome, and others expect a different outcome. So prediction is hard, for if it was easy, the war would likely have been avoided, though as the war goes on, and on, and on, becomes easier. Due to fog of war, hard to know what is happening now, or has happened recently, But after a while, it becomes obvious what did happen, which gives some indication of what will happen. It has long been …
Trump Unbowed
The early headlines are extremely interesting. Trump removed from stage by Secret Service after loud noises startles former president, crowd – USA today Donald Trump is escorted from stage after pops heard during pennsylvania rally NBC News: Secret Service rushes Trump offstage after popping noises heard at his rally Associated press: Trump has been escorted off the stage by secret service after loud noises ring out in the crowd. CNN Politics Secret Service rushes Trump off state after he falls …
Georgia color revolution
The Ukraine is not a nation and has never been a nation. It has always been a province of empire, with its boundaries arbitrarily redrawn from time according to administrative convenience. It has always been ruled, then as now, by satraps of empire who regard themselves as imperials, and the locals as mere expendable provincials. Imperial policy is to use up every last Ukrainian against Russia. They are starting to run out. Next up, Georgia. Georgia was color revolutioned, but …