> > While Namefag Yarvin’s predictions have been fairly good.”

> You’re exactly right. That’s why I’ve stopped paying attention to most of the comments here.

My prediction has always been total war, mass murder on a very large scale, or total collapse around 2026 or so.

Events remain on track for that prediction.

I have been predicting it for twenty years or so, and on this blog, for at least ten years.

We still have “everyone must get vaxxed endlessly” enforcement in most places, despite increasing indication of cumulative damage.

We still have a solid diet of weak men and strong women in the media.

The courtship dance may not be realistically depicted.

We have rapidly increasing hordes of enemies being flown in.

The flooding of America with enemies has escalated. We are seeing some hesitancy in vaxing everyone to death, but the vax enforcement is still at levels likely to kill most normies if vaxing has significant cumulative effect, and it rather looks as if it does have significant cumulative effect.

Money printing continues to escalate.

The general trend to greater and greater abnormality at shorter and shorter intervals is still in place. Yarvin’s prediction was that it would slow down, or somewhat stabilize. This has not happened.


The long predicted crisis has arrived. The question is does the current order collapse around 2026 or so, when we have some technological and cultural capability remaining, or do we, like post Roman Britain and today’s North Korea, go all the way back to the stone age around 2080 or so, with only a handful of the rich elite possessing metal artifacts, while the masses scratch at the ground with digging sticks?


I say collapse or civil war II in 2026. He is saying 2022.

If it is 2022, I will surely say I was right, and if it is 2026, he will surely say he was right.

Well it is now 2022, and things are happening a whole lot faster than they were ten years ago.


As we approach the left singularity, infinite leftism in finite time, it becomes increasingly hard to make predictions.

I think things blow up around 2026. I also think elections will have ceased to matter some time before 2026.

There will be increasingly dramatic events next week, next month, and next year. The new abnormal will soon become even more abnormal.

Am I a good prophet, or a damned good prophet?


I suspect that elections may well become transparently irrelevant by late 2020.

But if elections still matter in 2020, the Left’s response will likely render elections irrelevant not very long thereafter.

I still estimate the left singularity for 2026, but as we approach 2026, expect the unexpected.

Well am I damned good prophet? Give me an answer?. Did Moldbug predict what has happened, and what is continuing to happen? I did.


If Biden gets in, then the people pulling his strings will find that the way they got in makes it impossible to get anything done. Until they start shooting judges and public servants, which I expect to start happening around 2026 or so if Trump fails to start shooting people sooner than that.

It is not that moderation and sanity is prevailing, it is that incapacity is prevailing.


I continue to predict very large scale violence in 2026 or so, as I have been predicting for decades, but I was thinking that with Trump out of the way we would continue to see escalation in the violence as left wing factions turned up the heat on each other- and in some respects we have seen more violence, for example the Churches burning, but the coalition is holding quite well. The left factions are not turning up the heat on each other. I was expecting some more Epsteins by now.

I conjecture that we are still in the phase of coalition building preparatory for serious power struggle. Which could continue for quite a while. The plan, or a plan of several mutually incompatible plans, is to eliminate the Republicans in the mid terms, and, Republicans eliminated, then go for each other.

You heard it here first. As you heard that democracy was shortly going to abandoned here first. Prediction: Republicans eliminated in November, perhaps merely quietly pushed out of power, perhaps physically annihilated. Most likely quietly pushed out of power, while arrangements are quietly made for later physical annihilation. Then the left turns on each other, with the trend to ever more left wing insanity that has been in place since 1820 in England, and somewhat earlier in America, broken in infinite leftism and infinite insanity

We shall see.

610 Responses to “Predictions”

  1. Anonymous says:

    My prediction

    I have been predicting

    I say collapse

    I will surely say I

    I think things blow up around 2026. I also think

    Am I a good prophet, or a damned good prophet?

    I suspect

    I still estimate

    Well am I damned good prophet? Give me an answer?. Did Moldbug predict what has happened, and what is continuing to happen? I did.

    which I expect

    I continue to predict

    but I was thinking

    I was expecting

    I conjecture

    You lack humility.

    • jim says:

      I boasted of prophesies that came true, and humbly suggested that other prophesies are on track to becoming true.

      With great regularity I note predictions that fail to come true, notably my prediction that left violence against Republicans would immediately escalate following the election, shortly followed by left on left violence. I still predict escalation, but so far it has not yet happened. That is plenty of humility – indeed I overdid the humility by only mentioning failed predictions. So, needed some boasting to remind people of true predictions.

  2. A2 says:

    Speaking of predictions, a while ago Jim made a famous one that the US nuclear program is in bad shape due to tech decline. Well, I see that Dominic Cummings on his substack among other things just berated the UK nuclear program for its decline and ineptitude.

    “In September 2020 I was working a lot on the review of the MoD, procurement, the disastrous rot of our nuclear enterprise and so on. … [A document] explains fundamental points about the disaster of western procurement, how we’ve regressed and forgotten things we developed half a century ago. Its lessons are directly relevant to the weaknesses of our security now. Some things I started in No10 continued. Some things died almost immediately. Reform of MoD procurement is 99% in the latter category. I wanted people in Westminster to read the letter and think about it. Obviously the reaction of political journalists was mostly hahaha, rockets, procurement, nukes, mad Cummings mad again hahaha… In general, keep this Golden Rule in mind and consider that our nuclear enterprise is in much, much, much worse shape than ~100% of MPs have any conception of…”

  3. i says:

    Just to get a little off topic. Posting some links talking about the importance of the Holy Spirit in the Christian’s life:

    Would like feedback from some readers with time on their hands.

    • Redbible says:

      If your going to causally ask people to spend over 2-3 hours to some youtube videos (assuming x2 speed) you’d better give more of a reason than “I’d like some feedback”.

      Why do you think the videos should be watched? Do they have good information? Is it a demon payload hiding as Christianity? Is it Christianity with drops of demons in it?

      • i says:

        Don’t worry. There is no demonic payload in any of David Pawson’s videos since I watched many of them and found no heterodoxy or heresy.

        This is simply about the importance of persistently asking God in prayer for the Holy Spirit and the impact that God’s guidance through the Spirit will give you.

        For this thing God doesn’t always grant it immediately. It is dependent on you persistently asking like the parable of the Widow(Luke 18:1-8).

        I think it is essential so that God is able to change your very heart from the inside so that you are more like Christ.

        And so that God’s Spirit may guide you like he guided the Apostles.

        I haven’t heard anything unbiblical so far. So don’t worry.

      • i says:

        Much shorter talk on this specific topic I found today:

      • i says:

        Unfortunately that short video doesn’t go into detail like the video series I originally posted on what to do if there isn’t a visible sign of being baptised in the Spirit.

        Which is in the comment in my original response to you. But is present in the videos as well.

  4. Interesting take from Arnab Goswami on American warmongering

    Not reactionary views by any means and I think Arnab misses the big picture, but quite anti-American view from an Indian non-globohomo MSM news channel.

    I’ve also seen a few memes on Facebook that show Putin on one side and the Bushes/Clinton/Obama on the other side and asks why the picture of the warmongers on the GAE side don’t trigger people.

    Such memes and views show me that GAE lives in a bubble if it thinks that there is universal support for the West against Russia.

    • jim says:

      > Such memes and views show me that GAE lives in a bubble if it thinks that there is universal support for the West against Russia.

      It is not in such a bubble. It has abandoned the Awesome and Mighty Covid Demon narrative, and the innocent peaceable dark skinned joggers capriciously attacked by white predators for no apparent reason narrative, in favor of the universal support for war against Russia narrative.

      A precondition for war with Russia is getting enough people to be inside that bubble. YouTube is busily purging outside the War-with-Russia bubble videos, and has lost interest in purging outside the Covid bubble and peaceful-jogger bubble videos.

      Still seeing piles of pro Russian stuff on facebook, twitter, and youtube, but I also see the screws tightening. I expect that they will continue to tighten.

      Thus the left singularity proceeds, but in a new direction likely to end in war.

      Recollect that the ever leftwards tendency suddenly took a new turn in 1933, throwing first wave feminism overboard in favor of preparation for war and the total war economy. Instead of universal support for women’s rights, there was universal support for a command economy. War ensued six years later, but the left singularity runs faster these days.

      • I don’t disagree that the left singularity will proceed with increasing holiness. But I’m not convinced that they can bring on board nations outside the GAE sphere of influence to isolate Russia.

        For example see how the Biden administration is forced admitted that its immense diplomatic pressure to get India to condemn Russia and also cut trading and strategic relations with Russia failed

        • Red says:

          But I’m not convinced that they can bring on board nations outside the GAE sphere of influence to isolate Russia.

          Nations that are not infected with globohomo aids will absolutely not join the war. War against Russia is insane.

          The goal isn’t isolation, it’s whipping people into a murderous frenzy to destroy Russia and it’s people.

          • Kunning Drueger says:

            Sanctions aren’t war. It would take an insane event or series of events to get actual war fervor going. Even peak coronatarianism was meted out on the elderly and infirm through a bureaucratic process. This is why I thought it wasn’t really a deathcult, because it was more suggestive, dramatic, and symbolic.

            • jim says:

              > It would take an insane event or series of events to get actual war fervor going.

              Over the next few years an insane event, or series of insane events, will be reported by the official media.

              The Russian equivalent of whites murdering peaceable black joggers and raping innocent co-eds.

              • Kunning Drueger says:

                I think GAE lacks the capability and coordination to bring “everybody” in on a Hell March on Moscow. They’re also lazy women, so they will be impatient and bloody minded. Thus, they probably won’t be patient or methodical enough for some grand, coordinated false flag complex. Rather, they will conspire to do another George Floyd with Russian Characteristics, and go in with the faithful: Five Eyes + NATO.

                Their pacifistic, feminized identity work is really going to bite them in the pussy if it comes down to a good ol’ slavic slugfest. TC has pointed out the masculine nature of the old commie/left movements. They have none of that these days. Imagine that “Vaush” guy having to do 15k overnight with a 3 day pack… lol. To be fair, I bet a lot of us need to do some conditioning, but I bet we could. They don’t have the motivation on their side to trim fat, make hard, get gudd; they think they can drone their way to victory. But tech decline sits with Abbadon, smiling and waiting.

                I’m not trying to be optimistic, but I am trying to be realistic. Had a long, detailed conversation with some policy wonk types recently. From our limited, biased perspective, the US doesn’t have the airlift/sealift capacity to attack Russia, it doesn’t have the drive or determination to ramp up a war effort, and there’s no desire past the use of proxies. If this is going to change, it will take years. Memes aside, it would be a straight up Klendathu Invasion if the balloon went up tomorrow, and they don’t have the culture, ideology, or temperament in place to correct the issues. Do the math yourself on air/sea lift, and also, go through the Line of Succession until you land on someone who can build and lead an army. If RUS/CHI/IND go all in on assassinating the Dollar Hegemony, there’s very little outside threats of nukes the west can do. Any corrections, admonitions welcome if I’m missing something.

                • Seems the total war faction in US is pushing hard for sanction against India. I hope the Modi administration takes this as a sign to move closer to Russia and take the opportunity to dismantle the dollar Economy further. If we give in to US pressure, we are absolutely without friends in the Indo Pacific.

                  During the Cold War, Russia was the sole country that supported us against Pakistan and China. The US has repeatedly propped up Pakistan despite the evidence of terror outfits operating in Pakistani soil against India.

                  The path ahead should be clear.

      • Yet another article on the Indian mindset

        Do you think this is a cathedral approved article.

        The media house is certainly a partner or subsidiary of CNN it looks like.

        • someDude says:

          It’s a surprising amount of common sense that the Indian government is displaying. Russia has almost always supported India in it’s geopolitical disputes, sold us weapons, transferred their tech and whatnot, while Ukraine has almost always voted against us and sold the Pakis an ungodly number of weapons. Why would we say anything at all to jeopardize our relations with Russia? Silence is the best strategy.

          • What’s more surprising is that even cathedral-aligned media like News18 publish such opinion pieces, indicating that the globohomo satellites are not in sync with the latest holiness spiraling and in fact their influence is weakening in the outer reaches of the Empire.

            • Kunning Drueger says:

              While in no way apologizing for the butt load of hilarious Poo Jokes i have pushed out over the years, i can’t help but notice the backsplash i feel for relegating India to a #2 position. Brown faces all around on this side of the bowl.

              In all seriousness, India’s position in this has been shocking to me, but it is more about my complete ignorance and Occidental Primacy Perspective. As has been pointed out, IND/RUS has been a working, mutual support system for a while, and the YouTube channel Amit Sengupta lays it out very well. As it becomes more embarrassing to be an American, it becomes more inspiring to be Indian. Probably obvious for you guys, lol, you always had a high opinion of yourselves, but for me it was just colonial whining, sunken submarines, and petty border disputes. The fault is obviously mine for not digging deeper. Hope you guys don’t follow us down to hell.

              • someDude says:

                Yes, there are quite a bit of the high opinion of ourselves guys on our side. But there are quite a lot of self-hating Indians on our side as well for whom everything western is great and everything Indian sucks. You are just not exposed to them.

                That aside, we can’t follow you down to hell because we are already almost there. We are looking at the complete extinction of our old ancient culture in the face of progressivism and the two Abrahamisms. Any better definition of hell that you have?

                • Kunning Drueger says:

                  Being forced to assist in cultural suicide, then slowly growing to enjoy it? I’m very new to Rocor thought, but one perspective is that hell is being in the presence of the Almighty and hating it. A scary inverse is being sent to hell and loving it.

  5. Kunning Drueger says:

    This is a Gear Queer thread.

    2 interesting clips: the first is Chechen forces interacting with Ukie refugees. I don’t speak Blyat or Durkha.

    The second is RUS forces displaying captured flags:

    Look at the plate carriers, the gloves, the cammo, the ear pro. Contrast this with the footage from the first few days of both UKR and RUS forces. I don’t think Putin miscalculated, I think they wanted to bloody the new recruits as well as get a measure of where to put the expensive, dangerous assets.

    I’m also falling in love with the GAZ Tigr and whatever MRAP thing this is:

    • Red says:

      Interesting video about a Russian tank designed to deal with combat in cities:

      I haven’t heard if the US has an equivalent weapon system, but I kind of doubt it.

    • Oog en Hand says:

      They speak Blyat, not Durkha.

    • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

      Vehicles being used for closer order combat, whether on the ground or in the air, need to have at least two or more fire controlled autocannons with interlocking fields of fire for dealing with pop-up targets; whether foot mobiles, technicals, drones, or rockets. In most cases this can likely take the form of modular weapons stations with C2 included that can be mounted on various base vehicles (with the C2 itself possibly modularized as well).

      Vehicles in the air and on the ground should be able to detect enemy radiation sources – be it radar, communications, and so on – and immediately ping arty elements to drop a barrage on them.

      In fact, footsoldiers themselves should also have this capability. Smartphone-like ‘tactical data devices’ that enable a wide variety of potential uses or interoperations at boot level scales will likely feature big in future warrior kits.

      Besides grenade rifles as the standard service arm, troop mortars like the M224 can also serve as versatile force multipliers; besides the customary use in indirect firesupport, they can also act as launch tubes or recoiless rifles for rocket propelled munitions. Mortar rounds can also double as hand grenades, and vice versa.

      Compact wide diameter assault guns/mortars, in the 5 to 8 inch range, with both direct and indirect fire, are useful on mobile platforms in close order combat, for deconstructing fortified positions, providing fire support to other sectors, and overmatch defeat of enemy heavy vehicles (when you start talking 100+ pounds of HE going down range, the effect on even a highly armored target is less ‘penetration’ in a strict sense, and more ‘total concussive structural integrity failure’, which is often not directly related with armour packages).

      A good size for an autocannon is around the 2 gauge to 2 pounder size class, or roughly 33 to 55 millimeters, or 1.1 to 2.2 inches. Smoothbore designs would be copacetic for this usecase; besides the always reliable hail of high explosive fragmentation, it also provides the option for grapeshot, to engage infantry or drones (a slight historical digression; market hunters converging on the most economical means of harvesting lots of gamefowl would use punt guns in the upper end of this size range loaded with shot shells; whole flocks could be bagged in a single trigger pull), guided munitions for engaging long distance targets, like helicopters or close air support, APFSDS for armoured targets, and or other more specialized ordnance.

      A funny anecdote tangential to this discussion is how in many competitive simulationist games, like war thunder, heavy antiaicraft guns like the Otomatic or ZSU-57 were disproportionaly effective in destroying other vehicles, as compared to ‘normal’ tanks in the same tier ratings that are ‘supposed’ to be the best at this, and so frequently ended up getting nerfed due to claims of ‘cheapness’. The reason is fairly simple in practice: using a single shot high velocity AT gun, even a big one, you often need to aim carefully and hit a weak point if you want to penetrate anyways; and a single penetration likewise may not guarantee everything vital to the enemy vehicle’s operation is disabled, multiple shots are often necessary. With a SPAAG though, you can just hold the trigger and hose the guy down with a storm of API, multiple hits to vitals and breakdown of protection packages are practically guaranteed.

      (Incidentally, basically every modern tank could also be it’s own SAM site, using tube fired missiles, which would prolong the useful niche of the design archetype.)

      Small large diameter ‘derp guns’ achieved similar infamy; you don’t really need to aim carefully, just hit the target anywhere – or even not hitting it at all – and a kill is still practically guaranteed, including and especially against other vehicles with nominally much higher ‘advancement’. For a short time there were a number of hilarious videos of people using the ‘Sturmpanzer II’, a ww2 era vehicle that is basically just a tractor with a howitzer mounted on the front, nominally rated ‘tier 2.3’, and taking it into ‘tier 10’ games, where they would go around blowing up Challengers, Abrams, and Leopards. Cause You know, a load of HE is still a load of HE, no matter what the Current Date is.

      In terms of sensors, the main thing is electro-optical packages in the infrared regime for stereoscopic rangefinding, night ops, vehicle and weapon launch detection. Possibly also IR lasers for active ranging and frying the seeker heads of guided missiles.

      Larger vehicles can also mean larger power generation, which leads to high energy RF systems, which can have a variety of uses. Such as ultra-wideband synthetic aperture modes to ‘image’ targets hidden by clutter (such as landmines or occupied buildings), or turn ‘the heat’ up to fry enemy materiel (such as missiles or drone swarms), or more regular applications like active detection or passive direction finding of enemy emissions. Particular antenna architectures would be necessary to accomplish these needs concurrently, such as logarithmic periodization of patch or vivaldi or gizmotchy form factors in 3d fractal arrays, where higher frequency elements are nested inside the lower frequency elements, forming directional phased arrays with wide bandwidth and high resolutional density.

      The advantage of using only a narrow band for radiating is that this often allows for designs with higher peak powers; and with enough power, anything can be turned into a ‘conductor’.
      Meanwhile, the advantage of radiating power across a wide band is a higher likelyhood of one or ore bands resonating with one or more structures in the target, inducing arcs between it and the rest of the system.

      It would be a highly valuable capability for numerous mobile units to be able to coordinate together and act as a single synthetic array, for focusing power on a single target, or distributing active detection across wider ranges of frequency, time, and space, making distinction from background noise harder, and for greater signal processing capability, providing function in the place of single massive units, which can also incur strategic fragilities.

      The obvious next step in drone techne is developing drones that knock out other drones. On a small scale this can be literally knocking them out by physical means, though this could turn into a simple battle of attrition against kamikaze drones. More dedicated ‘sky sweeper’ drones would be designed around weapon systems like described above, like long barreled smoothbore cannons for firing birdshot or tube fired missiles, where the reinforced barrel is itself a structural element, affording reduced weight and complexity in designs.

      The chief benefit airplanes originally provided was the ability to reach out and touch strategically valuable targets deeps being enemy lines, and intelligence gathering, with everything else largely being a wash (for instance, CAS missions during ww2 were in fact notoriously ineffective; during operation overlord as an example, out of something like 300 attacks by planes on tanks and other vehicles, only something like 10 or 20 were actually confirmed as kills).

      The pilot in his aircraft loaded with bombs is essentially a guided weapon system; in latter days incursions by manned aircraft are no longer really necessary for either strategic strike or intelligence, where a variety of means now exist. One of the main things i see in coming air war is drone swarms with attached ‘mothership’ gunships using local directional networking, with long distance high flying regimes and VTOL regimes being the most common implementations, and where the ELINT equipment, c2 equipment, and directed energy fires equipment, is basically the same equipment.

      On campaign numbers, mobility, and range, count for a lot, which is a strong word towards use of technicals. There is a niche for more specialized heavily protected assault vehicles for ‘last half mile’ situations though. Form factor of vehicles of this type would resemble designs like the stridsvagn 103; a manned turret adds weight, complexity, and vulnerabilities to a tank, and in many important use-cases does not actually provide much benefit by itself in return. A ‘main tube’ can be casemated to the hull, and should be capable of high angles of elevation, to also give it capability for indirect fire or engagement of overhead targets, and ‘secondary turrets’ on two or four corners, that can be equipped with AGLs/autocannons/automortars, for all axis engagement of pop-up targets. Multi-axle technicals can also use similar formats (this was common, for example, in gun trucks used in vietnam for convoy defense).

      • jim says:

        Blowing stuff up was perfected in World Wars one and two.

        What will be different in World War three (at least until it goes nuclear) is locating stuff that needs blowing up before it locates the stuff that is going to blow it up.

  6. Pooch says:

    I keep seeing US Air Force videos being pushed in the reels section of Facebook when normally those slots are reserved for blacks and whores. Seems like they really are amping up the Western War machine propaganda.

    • someDude says:

      They are assuming that society is a memoryless system. There are some things you can’t go back to.

      • Varna says:

        Depends, depends. How quickly the “anti-system” liberasts became turbo neo-conservatives in foreign policy and inverted anal turbo neo-victorians in internal policy.

        Once you’ve brainwashed a couple of generations that white US peasants are literally Hitler, and that Russians are also literally Hitler, and that one is in fact equal to the other and they have secret clubs helping each other out, then the rest just grows out of that.

        Those who believe US peasants are literally hitler just get redirected against the Russian literally hitler, and those who are accused of being literally hitler, are fooled that here is their chance to prove that they are not literally hitler. The latter is of course just another globohomo shit test to fail, but hey.

        • someDude says:

          I think they’ve overplayed their hand too long. You can’t get away with treating your countrymen like absolute garbage for 2 generations and then suddenly pull their cheeks and pat their backs and expect them throw themselves against Russian guns. Too much water under the bridge. This time I expect the dirt people to just shrug.

      • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

        The essence of modernity is it’s solipsism; which is to say it’s nominalism; which is to say, a world where every day is new Day Zero.

        The only ideas the archetypical bluecheck can ever have are ideas that came from someone else. Not only are they not capable of world-formation in thinking, by that same stroke, they cannot even imagine what the possibility of such a thing would be like in other beings.

        It is a mind that can never escape living in the eternal Current Year; where any situation is always Unique and Unprecedented, and thus every solution is always Unique and Unprecedented; where no tasks, concerns, or objectives, apprehended in the schizoaffected kaleidoscope of it’s perception, can be found to have any relationship with any other shard that might pass through it’s skein.

        Have you in latter days ever had the pleasure of encountering the stupefying phenomena someone going ‘give me a source’, in a face to face conversation? People have been ruined by the lexical dominion of whig academia.

        One wonders how they think men like Roger Bacon or Alexis de Toqueville or Benjamin Franklin or any gentleman at all discussed things with each other in more civilized times (but of course they don’t; think, that is). A proverbial sourcefag can seem to exist in a strange fantasy world where they presume people (who don’t share their opinions) must be walking around with binders full of reference material in their back pockets, otherwise it’s just yet another excuse they’ll be happy to use to *not* entertain a repartee – as if nothing is real unless someone wrote it on a paper somewhere; as if nothing is real unless someone else (that they already agree with) said before already, in an infinite regress; as if thinking itself isn’t real. They’ve been blinded by a plato’s cave of discourse; a system-wide institutionalization of kicking the can down the road, where any powers of their own reason have been trained out of them; educated stupidity.

        • Aidan says:

          Historical consciousness is the property of a small minority of men and always has been.

          • someDude says:

            Couldn’t agree more. Historical consciousness is the property of the cognitive elite.

  7. The Cominator says:

    More colonel Douglas Macgregor.

    • simplyconnected says:

      Thought I’d drop link to most recent appearance. This may be what you’re referring to.

      • The Cominator says:

        Hmmmm I’m out of it today…

        • simplyconnected says:

          No worries. It’s tiring lately just trying to keep up with developments.

          • The Cominator says:


            This is in the Southern areas but if they are now moving onto actually taking cities this would likely indicate that the Russians have completed their “deep operational” encirclements and are now moving onto crushing the pockets.

            • Red says:

              They’re logistics are probably lagging at this point as well. The Russians have never had great logistics, so it makes sense to start taking cities instead of going around them if they’re low on fuel and parts.

              • jim says:

                Soviet logistics were bad, because socialist all the way down. Do you know if Russian logistics are still bad?

                • Jehu says:

                  Does anyone actually have non-socialist military logistics these days? Maybe the Sword of Elon, but I’m pretty sure that paramilitary organization doesn’t exist yet.

                • Red says:

                  I’m assuming so. Nothing indicates they’ve switched to capitalist logistics and they’re getting pretty very far away from their starting points. America’s traditionally dealt with the shortcomings of socialist logistics with massive logistics overkill while the Russians really don’t have the money for that.

              • Kunning Drueger says:

                I used to believe this too. I read an interesting paper a while back centered on the thesis that Soviet logistics (WWII) weren’t perfect, but they were very good because they did exactly what was needed for the situation based on what was available, as opposed to German logistics which were based on an ideal of what should be. The paper focused on railways, things like uniformity of rail gauge, lower consistent speed vs. alternating top and low speed for different trains, and only resupplying successful fronts.

                • Red says:

                  Soviet Logistics were garbage. So where German logistics for all the same reason: Socialism. Things that centralized planning should have been good at like massively increasing rail lines to supply front line troops wasn’t done by any major power during WW2.

                  The Saving grace of the Soviets was all the lend lease trucks, gas and arms sent by the US. This allowed them to overcome their basic transport issues and their god awful rail network in favor of truck logistics by 1943. The US sent almost half the trucks made during the war to the Soviet Union. This hurt our advance in France as we ran out of trucks, but FDR gave absolute priority to Stalin on all war supplies.

  8. Mike in Boston says:

    OT: USG wants DARPA to improve its ability to weed out thought criminals.

    Neural Evidence Aggreggation Tool (NEAT)

    By bringing
    together recent advances in cognitive science, neuroscience, physiological sensors, data
    science and machine learning, the NEAT program will develop processes that can measure
    what a person believes to be true by: 1) presenting carefully crafted stimuli that are designed to
    evoke specific preconscious mental processes; 2) detecting the resulting preconscious
    processes using current physiological sensors combined with state-of-the-art signal processing
    and neural analytics; and 3) using advances in machine learning and data science to aggregate
    the preconscious responses collected across a set of stimuli into a final measurement that
    quantifies what a person believes to be true for a specific topic.

    • Guy says:

      This doesn’t sound far-fetched at all, but isn’t that what a lie detector test is supposed to do? My understanding is those tests are not very accurate. If there was a path to increasing these tests’ accuracy wouldn’t incremental advancements be made to lie detector exams already in use?

      This sounds like applying machine learning to lie detector data to improve it, maybe adding some more stimuli.

    • Aryaman says:

      Alcohol solves this problem. Sounds like they are reinventing the wheel, except poorly.

      Machine learning and data science are not useful for the stated problem. They don’t have a large dataset of people whose true beliefs they reliably know some other way on whom they can apply their stimuli to generate data they can train into a model. Polygraphs work by measuring a few physiological attributes that all of us understand from our own experience lying, and lying under pressure.

      a final measurement that quantifies what a person believes to be true for a specific topic.

      Obviously what you believe on something isn’t a scalar, or even a vector in any space of tractable dimension.

      • Guy says:

        “Obviously what you believe on something isn’t a scalar, or even a vector in any space of tractable dimension.”

        Obvious to me. But the idea that consciousness can be reduced to math is the central problem with all discussion about AI and consciousness these days. One of the first things I read here that made me start reading more was Jim’s take on consciousness. Few people approaching the subject seem to actually have consciousness of their own based on the way they talk about it.

        • Aryaman says:

          Hard to evaluate a many of Jim’s ideas on things without time and thought, but what he says about consciousness was similar to my own take which I had never really seen expressed elsewhere (so succinctly at least), so that helped. Consciousness is interesting enough to discuss, but only with people who innately believe, and do not need to be convinced, that it is indistinguishable from magic as Jim says.

          They don’t appear to have consciousness of their own because the way they speak about it suggests they reject the most obvious empirical reality in front of them, namely that they exist and possess a volition to do things, which they must if they are anything like me. These are the people who need principal component analysis to see that there are such things as identifiably discrete human races, which is obvious to anyone who looks around and takes things for what they are.

          It seems this has infected modern physics. For example, what empirical phenomenon is string theory trying to explain? Can we even fantasize about what implication its resolution would have for us and our relationship to the real world?

          • Mike in Boston says:

            Scott Locklin is good on what he derides as “noodle theory”. He also recommends a book.

          • jim says:

            Indistinguishable from magic is not proof that it is magic.

            I take rather seriously the proposition that even though living creatures act through cause and effect, through physics and chemistry taking place in space and time, the ultimate decision making process is rooted outside of physics, chemistry, and indeed outside of time and space, that consciousness is indeed magic, a small fragment of God.

            On the other hand, I have spent a lot of time looking at dimensional reduction, the art, technology, and mathematics, of meaningfully processing vectors in spaces of intractably large dimension. If consciousness can be reduced to an algorithm implemented in chemistry and physics, operating inside space and time, I have put quite a lot effort into – not so much into finding that algorithm, as trying to figure out what the algorithm might look like and how it might operate on data.

            And anyone genuinely working on the latter task, the task of reducing consciousness to an algorithm, has to start within the frame that right now, in our present state of comprehension, it is indistinguishable from magic, that we do not know how to even get started on the task, but are rather vaguely waving our hand in the general direction of somewhere we might find a way to get started on the task.

  9. Basil says:

    Today the question arises, on which side should Russian nationalists be: “stop the madness” or “support the Russian army.” Once upon a time, when I was still labeling myself a nationalist, the main line of division was based on the principle of “imperials” and “anti-imperials”. I was a representative of the latter, who argued that it was enough for the Russian people to be compost for fertilizing imperial projects. For which he received accusations of betrayal and the desire to destroy the country.

    Now this divide has turned out to be more relevant than ever, due to the fact that the empire has now become the official ideology of the Russian Federation. So let’s talk about nationalism. Who are Russians? It is a combination of origin, self-determination, language, and so on. That is, ethnicity. If we endow ethnos with value, is it a problem that Russians today live not in one state, but in several? Not at all. Ethnic French live in the state of Canada, ethnic Germans live in the state of Switzerland. It is entirely possible to be part of an American civilian nation while remaining ethnically Irish or Italian. No one claims that the above are “divided peoples.” After all, they are separated, perhaps, by administrative borders, but they are united by economic, cultural and other ties. So it is with the Russians. The Russians are too big a people to be confined to a single state project. It is completely normal that Russians are different and live in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Baltic countries, etc.

    But if you look at what is happening now with Ukraine from the position of ethnocentrism, this is a real disaster. Russians kill Russians. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are about half (if not more) ethnic Russians. Therefore, with the thesis “to support the Russian army” ethnocentrism has a problem: which of the two? You also see a real, fundamental division – you can move the state border even to Lviv, but at the same time it will be a break in cultural, economic and other ties. I have already lost count of how many Russian Ukrainians refuse to write in the “language of the occupiers” in front of my eyes. It’s scary to imagine how many families, friends, relatives are now on different sides of the war.

    We are approaching the fact that the empire, now welcoming tanks to Kyiv, is not ethnocentrism, but something completely different. Their Russianness is not about ethnicity, it is determined by loyalty to a single state center. “One ring to rule them all.” Therefore, the imperial does not care that you could come to Zhytomyr to your grandmother and find yourself in your native cultural field, although there was a post on the border. But if this column does not exist, but they will spit in your face, calling you an “occupier” – oh happiness, the people are reunited! For the same reasons, for the imperialist, the Kadyrov guards, which carry out “cleansing” of Ukrainian cities, are more “Russian” than Russian Ukrainians in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Thus, the Russians that the imperials talk about are not at all living, real Russians. Russians are valuable to them only as carriers of this state ideological virus. If they do not want to be carriers of the virus, they are discharged from the Russians, they can be killed. To put it even more simply: the Russians are not an end for them, but a means.

    • The Cominator says:

      ” It is entirely possible to be part of an American civilian nation while remaining ethnically Irish or Italian.”

      Not entirely, the Ellis Island club have always had an otherness and they did a lot to hurt the country until say the 80s. Nowadays I would say the Italians tend to vote like Americans the Irish still do not. And I say that as part Irish myself. It was the Irish flood that really killed the potential for America to ever really be an ethnostate.

      Russia has always been (at least since the time of Ivan Grozny) a land empire of many nations together led by one nation as Stalin a man fundamentally a realist on all things except economics correctly recognized and that most of the Czars since the time of Peter the Great recognized.

      Anyone fighting on the Uke side is a mercenary for globohomo and deserves what they get, the only bad person on the world stage I’ve seen who is strongly on Putin’s side is Maduro ALL the rest of them that I’m aware of are with the fake country of Ukraine. The worst thing about Putin is he did not do a hard rejection of the covid demon but Putin at least basically told people he would not get vaxxed (and Russia being Russia I doubt the rule is much enforced), his submission to covid seemed partially some attempt at trying to maintain peace with the lunatics in the West. Putin is not responsible for this war and as was pointed out in BAP’s broadcast about it, its likely Russia’s security state would have ousted Putin if he tolerated allowing Ukraine to host US/NATO missles.

      Small nation nationalism as an organizing principle is a retarded leftist idea of Woodrow Wilson and you should rid yourself of such foolishness.

      • Oscar C. says:

        I have read Putin has a great fear of catching Covid, allegedly that is why he appears always pretty distanced from everybody he is meeting along those huge tables in the Kremlin.

        Regarding your take on the Irish, Brett Stevens of amerika dot org has always been incredibly anti-Irish, basically saying that they ruined America and so on. He seems like a modern-day Samuel Morse basically: “A True American Ethnostate Would Be a WASP-only Society” reads one of his articles.

        My view is that you can not have it all. You can not have a venerable-cum-archaic small Constitution meant for a limited, homogeneous coastal nation while expanding to become a superpower & global empire. You are going to lose your original essence, sorry.

        Russia understood this, and aside from fringe white nationalists there like Alexiey Shiropayev (Counter-Currents has a series on his “Prison of the Nation” book), any Russian rightist fully assumes the multiethnic nature of the country.

        • The Cominator says:

          Samuel Morse also claimed he had in his travels acquired direct knowledge of a Vatican/Jesuit plot against the US.

          Looking into the background of who is behind Covid I think he was telling the truth about everything. One priority of the restoration needs to be the extermination of all Jesuits and all Jesuit coadjutors (anyone with a Jesuit education in state or quasi state jobs who is politically flawed should be assumed to be a coadjutor and executed).

      • DavyCrockett says:

        Without the Italian, Irish, German, Polish, Swedish, Norwegian, Greek, Russian, Czech etc. immigrants America would be much much blacker than it is right now, probably twice as black by percentage and quite possibly more, and may have imported Blacks. Even in the North, to give an example Boston was 17% Black in 1720 but only 4% black in 1940.

        I am Mostly English with some Scottish blood for full disclosure.

        • The Cominator says:

          I’m not saying we didn’t need the Germans the Germans who came here are alright but the Catholic Irish were nothing but problems, basically Bill the Butcher did nothing wrong.

          And the South where most of the blacks came from never got that many immigrants (maybe less than 20%) and they didn’t start coming North until WWI. The North could have been peopled by Anglos and Germans by then without the Ellis island flood.

          The important thing is unity among whites, and the Irish made Amerikaner white nationalism prettymuch impossible forever. The Germans could have fit into it but the Irish never could have.

          • DavyCrockett says:

            The Germans were just as much if not more a foreign element than the Irish, for multiple reasons. The Catholic thing is almost as much of an issue for the Germans, about or almost half of them were Catholic Germans too.

            There’s a reason Benjamin Franklin railed against German immigrants to Pennsylvania many times and called them swarthy non-whites.

            • The Cominator says:

              The Germans eventually fit in and voted for non leftists parties and dropped the chip on their shoulder…

              Eventually so did the Italians (and Italian neighborhoods tend to be right wing isolated strongholds in big blue cities now, if we want to shut down the Democrats in those shithole cities damnit we need to bring the mafia back) and I tend to like Italians.

              The Irish are to this day stubbornly more likely to be Democrats and leftists than most other whites (I mean outside of the upper middle class SWPL wine mom Karens crowd)…

              • 123548asdfjsadjsd says:

                >Eventually so did the Italians (and Italian neighborhoods tend to be right wing isolated strongholds in big blue cities now

                Proper Italians are all natural right wingers. Plain as day

                • jim says:

                  And yet Italy is thoroughly leftist.

                • The Cominator says:

                  Italy itself is run by its own civil service, the state department and the Vatican. And if the PM is forced out between elections the President (who is picked by those factions) gets to decide who the PM is to the next election. Its no wonder one of the world bases for selling the coronahoax was Italy.

                  Even so its not always been thoroughly leftist, they had their own Trump (Berlusconi) for a while and before Covid were trending right.

                • 123548asdfjsadjsd says:

                  Yes. But what about the effect of brain drain and globohomo propaganda on Italy in the present decades? That leaves a country of mostly sub 100 IQs (with South Italian primitives mixed in, who are naturally socialist) to become beguiled by brainwashing.
                  I think the pure archetype of an Italian is more aggressively hierarchical, naturally conservative, etc. It comes out in better soil.

                • Pooch says:

                  Italy is leftist for the same reason all of Europe is leftist. It’s not acceptable to the US Embassy to be rightist.

                • notglowing says:

                  Italy is thoroughly leftist but I will defend it in that respect.
                  All of Europe is quite leftist with its universal welfare states.

                  At the very least, Italians today for the most part do not believe in it the way some other peoples do – if there is one thing that’s true about them it’s that they are not personally loyal to the state.
                  That doesn’t mean they contemplate an alternative, as I explained previously, most are very cynical about politics and don’t believe there is anything that can be done to change the social order, and as a result few are strong believers in some political ideology. Libertarianism isn’t a thing but communism is also a dead faith.

                  Cominator is correct in his assessment about how incredibly rigged the political system is, but I don’t think it really matters ultimately since change by voting *is* impossible mostly anywhere, at least not moving on from socialist.

                  Italians are conservative in certain ways. They are definitely not nationalists, because every locality has its own culture, and people do not identify strongly with the country as a whole as they do with their own city and small area. The history, culture, and even language are distinct, and it matters.
                  Families are tight knit and see themselves as economic units, almost like clans, this is mostly true even aside from all the mafia stuff, and even in the north.
                  It’s not unusual for a moderately wealthy family to own a larger building, and for everyone to simply have an apartment in it, owned independently but built or bought for the family, and overall only that family’s property – if you build a house here, you make it bigger than you need, with distinct accesses and apartments in it, then you can recoup the cost by renting it for 20 years, then your son can move into the previously rented part as he gets married.

                  Smart Italians do tend to move out, and make money abroad, and they are quite successful at doing so, but they often come back. I think the brain drain is significant, but it doesn’t always translate to lower IQ because you can still have your kids abroad and then return to your town.
                  Most want to die in the place they were born, and this doesn’t mean the *country* to them, where a lot of it is much like foreign land, but rather the town they are from.

                  Some do stay abroad for many generations as we saw in the US.

                  Italy itself is a disaster of a welfare state, with high spending, and no one willing to pay the price. But at least no one will snitch on you, for any reason, but especially not for finding a new creative way of evading taxes.
                  I know a fair amount of rich and successful among us, and while some of the elite are pozzed, my friends among them and their children are based.
                  Wealthy parents produce children who are judicious investors and know how to manage their property so as to not lose it; With the taxes that Italians suffer, there is currently not much in terms of opportunities to become wealthy to begin with, not many companies grow fast, and the highest salaries are not high. Those who make money are those with property their parents built in better times, and so they have to make sure not to lose it.
                  But we have stayed low in personal debt and for the most part the money from the good times has been turned into real estate and other investments and savings. The average Italian I know is financially stable with little or no debt, and even though covid hit tourism extremely hard, the business owners mostly survived here, with almost a year’s worth of being closed.

                  I think the average Italian actually compares favourably with the average American in many ways, but we do not have the equivalent of the Amerikaner. Any such spirit is long gone if it ever existed, Europe does not have a high chance of reaction actually playing out.
                  But to me, a natural leftist is someone who envies those who have it better than him, and seethes about them. I don’t know anyone like that here – it is a fairly well-off area though.

                  Life in Italy before covid was not bad, especially if one managed to make income from outside the country.
                  Before covid, many of the worst excesses of leftism were simply not present. The language barrier is useful, but it’s difficult for modern leftist beliefs to really take foot here because the passion isn’t there. You need a sufficient portion of the population to be passionate about politics for them to actually buy and enforce your religion.

                  Covid is awful because it accomplished with a health scare what could’ve hardly been done with just political propaganda. If anything, it was perhaps more successful because, being less politically inclined, many would not analyse it as a political thing to begin with.

                  They will not succeed in making Italians care about shit like gender pronouns, but they managed to make them worry about dying of some disease.

                • DavyCrockett says:

                  Frankly the overwhelming majority of Italian Immigration was insanely disproportionately Southern, and was also intentionally focused on sending criminals and neer-do wells from local Sicilian Authorities and South Italian peninsula authorities. Which makes me skeptical of Braindrain claims.

                  Not trying to be negative towards Italians just to be negative, obviously there have been significant accomplishments from Italians in the past. But what is this theortical “better soil”? There’s a reason why the Italians had the most famous criminal gangs for decades, though now they have been eclipsed by others.

                • Pooch says:

                  As I’ve said before, the biggest white-pill for Europeans should be Russia.

                  Without the US State Department running things out of the US Embassy, suddenly any European country will realize it’s actually an independent country again.

                  If you notice, Italy right now is not all that loud condemning Russia. They are watching things as is everyone else. Better times may be ahead.

                • Pooch says:

                  The story of Italian-American immigrants, being descended from them myself, is as follows to my understanding:

                  The Kingdom of Two Sicilies (Bourbon monarchy in Southern Italy), was humming along just fine until the internationalists came along and knocked over its apple cart and took all its apples in the so called “Unification of Italy”, devastating the economy of Southern Italy.

                  The Mezzogiorno peasant class was hit the hardest, some turned to crime. In time many of these peasants moved on to the greener pastures of America (and to a lesser extent South America), not having much loyalty to the new government of Italy, with a few criminals mixed in.

              • clovis says:

                German Americans fit in to the extent that we embraced evangelicalism/calvinism. When we didn’t, we only kind of fit in. However we work hard usually and don’t make trouble and don’t do organized crime or politics. The catholic Irish and Italians however love crime and politics.

                • The Cominator says:

                  “German Americans fit in to the extent that we embraced evangelicalism/calvinism. When we didn’t, we only kind of fit in.”

                  Most German Americans if they weren’t Protestants became Protestants. Where were the stubbornly Catholic pockets (Michigan maybe)?

                  The Mafia had some okay points, neighborhoods that changed hands to being run by the (American, Sicilian mafia is much much worse) mafia to being run by Democrats were always far better under the mafia. Providence used to be a very very fun city. And I kind of hope Michael Franzese runs for President (even if the election is fake the keks and kvetching from the Cathedral when Franzese tells them they are all much bigger crooks than he ever was and he was one of the most successful crooks in mafia history).

                • Kunning Drueger says:

                  I know you and I butt heads, but we actually share a lot of common geographical touchpoints. Did you ever get up into Maine? Oregon coast (not fucking Portland or Astoria) and Downeast Maine are possibly the most beautiful places in the lower 48, though I hear Alaska is just beyond beautiful.

                  Rhode Island is the big mystery for me. They are legit based, but they seem to not care about being surrounded by puritan assholes, nor do they get involved politically. Can’t say where due to stupid easy doxx, but RI is kind of a hidden gem. I maintain that if RI,MA, and CT were forcefully depopulated, turned into a reserve, then people could move in after buying into some kind of land co-op, would probably be the best place to live.

                • DavyCrockett says:

                  ~50% of German Americans are Protestant, ~30% are Catholic.

                  There’s a lot of German Catholics throughout the Midwest (Like the Covington Catholic MAGA kids who liberals tried to lynch, Covington a Kentucky suburb immediately south of Cincinnati), also some in Louisiana, Texas, and lesser numbers in other Southern cities.

                • The Cominator says:

                  I never lived in Providence mostly in the belly of the beast Massachusetts but Providence was a fun place to visit at least up until the point where everything got sucky in the very late part of Obama’s 2nd term.

                  I was only in Maine twice, once to White Water Raft (which was cool) and the other for a job interview. The best people in new england tended to be from New Hampshire and Maine though. People from Plymouth/Cape Cod are okay too.

              • chris says:

                “The Irish are to this day stubbornly more likely to be Democrats and leftists than most other whites”

                Are they? I’d like so see data on that. Maybe in like the 50’s when you had the Kennedys running about. But 50’s Democrats are more similar to modern day Republicans than modern day Democrats are to 50’s Democrats.

                Aren’t Bannon and O’Reilly and Hannity Irish?

        • DavyCrockett says:

          (and may have imported Blacks for longer than they did*)

          We can also see this in the percentage of Blacks for the entire country. Blacks peaked as a percentage of the United States/British Colonies at 21.4% of the population in 1770, right before the USA became independent and thus became easier for non-WASP Europeans to immigrate to the USA. The Highest USA census year that was Black was 1790 when they had already declined to 19.3%.

          The Lowest Black percentage was 9.7% in 1930, right after the 1924 Immigration act made it harder for many European countries residents to immigrate. If we had focused only on English or WASP immigration its very likely or possible we would have twice as high a black proportion of todays or more 12.4%, perhaps 25%, 30%, 36% black.

        • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

          Ah yes, there is no such thing as proliferation, so only infinimmigration can Do The Jobs People Won’t Do, like reproduce.

      • Pooch says:

        Nowadays I would say the Italians tend to vote like Americans the Irish still do not.

        Voting is gay. Democracy is gay. We want monarchy. Stop acting like a Fox News watching boomercon.

    • Kunning Drueger says:

      “Guys, we have to oppose Putler’s militancy to protect and promote *checks list of hot take terms* ethnic diversity!” You should really send me your posts first so i can save time and space.

      • Basil says:

        I did not say that it is necessary to fight for Ukraine. I said that it is not necessary to fight for Putin by killing other Russian people.

        If you’re so worried about the issue of ethnic diversity, I recommend turning off Russia Today for a second and going to see Moscow with your own eyes. If you did not know, the demographic crisis in the Russian Federation is solved by the importation of 500k+ migrants from Central Asia per year, while “denazification” is chosen as the reason for the war with their own people. These are the results of twenty years of the reign of this remarkable defender of the white race. Literally, Putin is a warrior of social justice. Like the American version, he talks about evil fascists and uses rhetoric about restoring justice.

        • The Cominator says:

          Whenever i see pictures of Russian cities they are far whiter than anywhere in the West.

        • Pooch says:

          Contrast and compare to the typical American city.

        • Kunning Drueger says:

          You are a GAE shill. You know damn well that, given Globohomo dominance of societies and institutions, it is inevitable that brother will fight brother. They baked that inevitability into the cake, hoping pussies like you would cry out for like peace man. What do you think “traitors die first” means? I’d you’d actually follow the threads, you’d know we talked about the soft touch, Grasping The Nettle, and the necessity of brutality.

    • jim says:

      Empire is inherently opposed to ethnostates.

      The solution in the Peace of Westphalia, but it only takes one party to play at empire, and all the others have play.

      For ethnostates to exist, we need the peace of Westphalia, with the participants in the peace having nukes.

      Nuclear technology should be a lot cheaper and more widely available – it would be cheaper and widely available if we resumed progress in technology.

      The peace of Westphalia was the Concert of Europe.

      • Pooch says:

        I reject Westphalia. Empires conquer space. A bunch of Westphalian mini states is not conquering space.

        • The Cominator says:

          Rejecting Westphalia means you are never really at peace. Westphalia doesn’t imply mini states.

        • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

          Multikulti not only doesn’t conquer space, it makes sure noone else can, either.

          In reality all empires were simply glorified ethnostates anyways; they are an expression of a particular dominant folk, and they likewise pass with the passing of that particular folk; the imperial possessions simply being an epiphenomena of superabundant power in that folk.

          Rome rose with the latins, and fell with the failure of latins to maintain patriarchy; by the third century there were effectively no longer any ethnic latins in priestly and warrior classes, having been all replaced by or repleaced themselves with xeno ringers; and the form of social organism that was particular to them, that sprang from then, likewise passed in due course.

          The most successful empire in latter days was the British empire, and the most successful parts of the British empire were the parts where they Physically Removed indigens and filled the space up with more of themselves. Compare and contrast with their once contemporary rivals, the great maritime power of Spain.

  10. Nuke All Western Cities Respektor says:

    ‘“Fat-shaming” — discrimination based on weight — is still common in Singapore and across Asia, activists say, but there are signs that the traditional view that only slim can be beautiful is being challenged.’

  11. Red says:

    They’re blaming businesses for causing inflation just like the Weimar Republic did. I guess we should expect price controls next.

    Gold and Silver a good hedge against them destroying crypto or would I just be putting up signs posts for the feds to loot me when things get nasty? I think all those sales are tracked now.

    • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

      “If he didn’t want a counterfeit, why did he buy it?”

    • Pooch says:

      I’m not seeing that yet. But if they do, bitcoin still seems like the best game in town unless you want to take your gold and silver with you when you flee.

    • jim says:

      I have bought a lot of untracked gold. Subsequently sold almost all of it, realizing that crypto currency had rendered gold irrelevant, and that, like silver, it would fall to its value as an industrial metal. I don’t know how easy it is these days to buy untracked gold.

      • Pooch says:

        What if Russia decides gold is relevant and starts transacting large amounts of oil for gold? The value of gold could go up to something like 1000%. How does change your calculus of gold vs Bitcoin?

        • Mister Grumpus says:

          If the oil and gas pipelines into Europe still work, and if their physical operation isn’t blockaded, then I can’t see why Russia’s European customers couldn’t start driving gold bars (or Sicario suitcases full of cash for that matter) to their nearest Russian embassy in the middle of the night for payment.

          For a new refrigerator or Playstation it’s ridiculous, but for millions of dollars worth of oil or gas (especially at a discount), then why not?

        • jim says:

          It is a lot easier to do transactions in crypto currency than in gold.

          In a world of untrusted and untrustworth elites, to do a transaction in gold you have to physically move the gold.

          So you can move gold to the embassy. What is the embassy going to do with it?

          • Mister Grumpus says:

            I’m implying a parallel 19th century banking network for huge transactions only. A branch in every Russian (and Chinese and Indian?) embassy. I walk in there with my invoice and gold bricks, the guy weighs and scans them (or whatever), makes a bunch of phone calls, and stamps it “paid”.

            When the safe fills up they’d have to fly some to it back home somehow.

            Forms, account books, pens and signatures, etc. There must be hundreds of vital details, but my “existence proof” is whatever must have been going on before WW2 or so.

            Clunky for sure, but is it really impossible?

            This might be useless compared to crypto and XRP and whatever, but given all the things I’m hearing about cutting Russia out of internet and exchanges and stuff, I wonder if some pen-and-paper cave man stuff could help instead.

            • jim says:

              We do not have what it takes to implement the nineteenth century banking system.

              Needs a trusted and trustworthy elite, who impose a system where if the gold is mysteriously short and cannot be delivered, than banker loses everything and goes to prison.

              Current law and practice is that he gives you piece of paper containing someone else’s promise to deliver the gold, someone who is deemed officially trustworthy by the courts, despite the fact that his promises have so far been delayed by a decade.

              • Mister Grumpus says:

                That’s kinda my point. The Russian/Chinese armies or foreign services could maybe put this on, even if Globohomo couldn’t.

          • Pooch says:

            It is a lot easier to do transactions in crypto currency than in gold.

            Yes it is. Is that at all a relevant piece of information if Russia starts selling massive amounts of its oil for gold?

            • jim says:

              If it attempts to sell oil for gold, likely to have problems with gold delivery.

              • Pooch says:

                Would require a rather robust arbitrage network of speculators being set up most likely.

                • Kunning Drueger says:

                  Resurgence of gold currency means war bands and mobile bandits are back on the menu.

                • jim says:

                  Not seeing a resurgence of gold currency.

                  Gold is dead. It will slowly drift down to its industrial value, as silver has.

                • Pooch says:

                  If gold is dead why has Russia been buying so much gold the last 8 years? Conversely they have bought 0 Bitcoin.

                • jim says:

                  Normality bias. They are not hip. Needing to bypass SWIFT, they will get an education.

                  The commodity markets are currently in chaos, because they are an elaborate pile of contracts about contracts, promises based on promises, and the root promises of this elaborate financial superstructure are promises to purchase commodities at a certain time at a certain price, and pay via swift, and promises to deliver commodities at a certain time for a certain price. And suddenly the western financial centers have been cut off from a the trade in commodities, and a large proportion of the underlying contracts on which this elaborate superstructure rests have been ripped up by force majeure.

                  Russia has been preparing to live without these western financial services. Now it will actually be living without them. We shall see how useful gold in this new world.

                • Kunning Drueger says:

                  I’m not saying you’re wrong, Jim, but your argument seems a bit like an “end of history” argument. If technology declines and society starts to collapse, a lot “dead” things could quickly spring to life.

                • jim says:

                  If the internet goes down, stays down, then gold and silver will come back to life.

                  But I rather think that if the quasi governmental internet goes down, we will bring up our own, very low bandwidth, rather expensive, internet, by illegal HF.

              • Red says:

                What if Russia starts it’s own crypto currency backed by it’s gold reserves? People trust gold and if you can funnel from crypto to gold and back, then the adoption might be massive.

                • jim says:

                  You cannot funnel from gold to crypto and back, because you need someone trustworthy backed by a trustworthy sovereign to hold the gold.

        • jim says:

          Russia is now discovering it made a huge mistake in buying gold.

          The US is seeking to lock down $132 billion in Russian gold

          I expect it to learn from its mistake.

          • Guy says:

            Wouldn’t the real error be that they stored it in their enemies vaults? Or is there a reason they basically had to do so?

            • jim says:

              The problem was that they had to do so. Or rather than not doing so, stashing in the vaults of the Kremlin, was inconvenient and difficult, and if stashed in the vaults of the Kremlin, difficult to use it to pay for stuff.

  12. Anon says:

    My last post here lads — sweet Jesus. 😂

    • Varna says:

      Yarvin + Alex Jones + a cuppa is a delightful way to start the day. An Anglin participation via video link is all that’s missing.

    • Kunning Drueger says:

      2 takeaways:
      It was legitimately entertaining to watch conspiracy theory definers refine their assertions together, a meeting of the minds between my people (midwit AJ followers) and the big brains of the programmer elite.

      Yarvin is slowly becoming a pundit. Disregarding all of the opinions of those of us that have been following since the oughts, pundits have power in the US, regardless of their actual intelligence. It remains to be seen if his campaign is succesful. Every rockstar has a crowd of local supporters that believe they “changed” or “sold out.”

  13. Mike in Boston says:

    My prediction has always been total war, mass murder on a very large scale, or total collapse around 2026 or so.

    Viktor Orbán, at the end of a very long speech to the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce, puts the date at 2030:

    Around 2030 there will be all kinds of major realignments in the world, which I do not have time to talk about now, but a lot of things will happen – from America to the European Union. Around that time, around 2030, nations will all be tested, and subjected to a major stress test much greater than this pandemic. By then our nation, our national community – including our economy – will have to be in a condition to meet those challenges there and then, and even to prosper. This is what lies ahead of us.

    I wonder what he knows.

    • jim says:

      He is predicting something milder and later.

      If is a bit later, I will still say I was right, but if milder, I will be wrong.

      • Herman says:

        He is predicting milder and later for Hungary.

        Since Hungary has a quite homogeneous population, I don’t think civil war is on the cards there.

        Hungary is on the edge of the Russian Empire and Orban has been meeting Putin a lot, so there is the possibility it might become part of the Russian empire.

      • Mike in Boston says:


        He is certainly predicting later.

        But as far as predicting something milder, my gut feeling is that he expects something as severe as you, but is soft-pedaling it for a bunch of skittish businessmen.

  14. Pooch says:

    In regards to the declining territory of the American empire, there is actually one piece that was lost and has been unnoticed (or maybe it hasn’t on older posts) to us: Venezuela

    Maduro has become something of a Stalin in Venezuela in ways not acceptable to the State Department and is a complete ally to Putin now, having stopped multiple US-backed coups against him.

    Globohomo even tried to topple him in a sloppy covert CIA op that was easily discovered and was described as “as amateurish, underfunded, poorly-planned, having little or no chance of success”.

    Sort of a fun fact and just more evident to me that Globhomo’s best days are behind it. I wouldn’t be surprised if Maduro starts allowing Putin to station military equipment there to threaten the continental US.

    • Joe W. says:

      > I wouldn’t be surprised if Maduro starts allowing Putin to station military equipment there to threaten the continental US.

      No chance. We could take out Maduro with a drone strike in 10 minutes, which would not only give Biden and GAE an easy victory coming off several embarrassing defeats, but it would also make a million Venezuelans in the U.S. suddenly like Biden and the Dems a lot more just in time for the election.

  15. Encelad says:

    The Cathedral is pushing to get Ukraine in EU. They want total war. I guess it is a great opportunity for them to get rid of a huge chunk of young white males.

    • Mister Grumpus says:

      Implying what, that the DC Brezhnevites are preventing greater European military involvement, so now they need to do it themselves?

      Talk about procedural outcomes. They can’t just jump into a war for kicks, oh no. They have to do the paperwork so that they’ll have no choice not to. Are they fucking countries with armies or fucking not? Invasion by Karen.

      What am I missing?

      • Encelad says:

        Don’t know if EU bureaucrats are following an agenda from above or ot is just spiralling and insanity. But, yeah, pretty much the most vocal warmongering priests I am seeing are dumb karens, thus I fear it is insanity indeed.

      • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

        > Talk about procedural outcomes. They can’t just jump into a war for kicks, oh no. They have to do the paperwork so that they’ll have no choice not to. Are they fucking countries with armies or fucking not? Invasion by Karen.

        The merely written letter is an empty cipher than contains only what spirit existed before it; and at the same time, the literalist cares a great deal about it; and both of these facts are illustrated at the same time by how he will endeavor to twist the merely written letters any which way he can, until the letters say what he wants them to say.

    • Pooch says:

      Nah. If the Cathedral was pushing hard for war we would be see the New York Times viciously criticizing Biden for why he hasn’t authorized a No Fly Zone yet. The New York Times represents the approximate consensus of Cathedral elites. That they aren’t pushing hard for the NFZ means total war isn’t a goal, at least yet.

      • Red says:

        Pretty clear the anti war faction is still in charge, but the more left faction is spiraling hard for war with Russia.

    • Karl says:

      Nah, pushing to get Ukraine in EU is just virtue signaling. EU membership doesn’t help in a war. Pushing for Nato membership would indicate a desire for war or pushing for NATO troops to aid Ukraine’s force would indicate desire for war.

      Not seeing that. I conclude that the anti-war faction is still in control.

    • ExileStyle says:

      So take this for what’s its worth, which is extremely little, but a friend just sent me a video of US troops getting fed crab leg and oysters and the Shaniquas losing their shit about it. The vet commenting on the video called it a “morale meal” and said it was the same thing they fed him about two weeks before shipping out to Iraq. Could be psyop, could be chance, could be something. Just stuck out to me.

      Also these: (thermobaric round?)

      • Red says:

        >and the Shaniquas losing their shit about it.

        Losing their shit over a good meal?

        • ExileStyle says:

          In the “Oh sheeeit grrrl I ain’t never seen no crab legs in no army mess hall before, dayaaam I love tha army” kind of way.

          On that note, maybe you’re right Jim and Pooch and others and Russia’s chances against are a bit higher than I thought, if this is what GAE’s going to put on the ground…I can’t share the vid for doxx-avoidance reasons, but this army mess hall gave off the vibe of a middle school cafeteria in Detroit…

          • Red says:

            I have no idea how well the US army will do. With the Navy I have good second hand knowledge of and they will absolutely get their shit pushed in against anyone. If the other 2 branches are even half as bad off as the navy, the US will lose any sort of protracted war.

            There still might be a functioning core of the army and airforce that’s still strong, but it’s likely small and unlikely matter much past few weeks in a major powers war. As the militaries on both sides lose their best fighters early on it’s the second tier troops that will end up doing most of the fighting and Russia with it’s Christian faith and entirely male army will trounce globohomo army of whores, niggers and trannies. The longer the war goes on, the weaker the US will become.

            • Pooch says:

              Assuming everything doesn’t get nuked to shit and fighting still matters, the US would need to find their Stilicho, who gave the last collapsing Western Roman Empire an extra 30 years of so with his military competency. He smartly made deals which allowed barbarians to fight for him against the invading barbarians. Maybe the US version of him would convince all of Russia’s historical Eastern European Slavic enemies (like Ukraine) to fight for him, who still have some masculinity intact.

  16. Pax Imperialis says:

    Some observations. I’ve had the distinct privilege to have been intimately familiar with USMC Officer Candidate School recruiting and training for a while. I fear being doxed or inadvertently doxing others so I will talk in most general terms possible. I’ve talked to many Officer Candidates and newly commissioned as well as staff. I wishes to stress the following points:

    1) USMC history is covered in a very neutral manner
    2) Banana war era is not demonized and is strictly fact based
    3) There is a distinct feeling in a significant number of candidates that America is in serious decline (Roman Republic comparisons are common)
    4) Both staff and candidates treat the vaccine as BS (even the medical staff E and O), but most would rather stand their post even in the face of death than leave much in the same way that Roman soldiers might have stood their post in Pompeii to the end
    5) Positive association with looting Western Europe post WW2 among both candidates and current officers up to Capt (That I know about)
    6) A number of the staff, during training, who may have had what might seem like political paraphernalia made comments such as “He’ll be back,” those instructors have not been purged and have been instructing for years. Candidate reactions to the paraphernalia and occasional political statements were very positive

    Given enough stress to the economic system, with current attitudes held, it would not be surprising if there is a shift towards supporting outright looting Latin and South American nations. A return to something like the Banana wars would have sufficient support amount the Officer corps. Weather or not incoming officer corps will have any impact on foreign policy over the next 10 years is debatable.

    Venezuela has lots of gold and other valuable natural resources yet waiting to be extracted. Too bad it would take a democratic intervention to liberate their people.

    • Kunning Drueger says:

      In any given population of warlike or war-able males, you will find a spread of tendencies and tolerances which are metered by selection process and causal factors. The forces of postmodernity have made great strides to create a selection process that filters out tendencies and tolerances they find troubling/problematic/unholy. While war was this thing you scheduled out in 6-12 month increments and rotations, with absolutely 0 possibility of counter invasion or real defeat, this sort of worked, but the suicide rate rose exponentially for a time. This was tolerable because those self-destructing were deplorable anyways.

      If/when war, as they choose to define it, becomes an existential issue, they will be forced to make a decision. To date, the Cathedral has been unable or unwilling to admit errors of any type. SOP is to quietly bury the issue and circle back later. This is not a dynamic strategy. If the people I talk to in the policy world are a reasonable sample, there is a growing urge towards a WWII type strategy, meaning unity of purpose, state seizure of production, mass volunteer/conscription, and a just war on the forces of anti-democracy. This appeals to a lot of people, but is basically impossible without an FDR, as well it cannot occur without a Pearl Harbor.

      Keep in mind, the FDR we all know, the measurable figure long dead, is not the FDR the world of majority agrarian+radio connected America believed they knew. He was widely considered a genius by allies, and an evil genius by his enemies. His “genius” and brain trust served to get him the control of industry and military, and Pearl Harbor silenced all opposition. Biden is not, and cannot be, an FDR. So who on the top tier, public facing left could conceivably be an FDR? That is who will be “pushed” into power after the Pearl Harbor Event occurs.

      Even if these machinations occur and are by some measure successful, it won’t change the handicap of their selection criteria. These people fundamentally believe in the Wahmen Stonk myth. They fundamentally believe minorities are superior when white suppression is removed. And they are certain that technology will annihilate their enemies.

      • chris says:

        The popularity of the “No Russian ever called me racist” meme makes me think the conscription efforts would not be very successful against Anglo White males. (might work against Eastern European White males though.)

    • S says:

      America’s elite refuses to expand oil production in the US. They aren’t going to let American companies extract natural resources in Latin America at the point of a gun.

      • Pax Imperialis says:

        Latin America would not be looted at the point of American guns.

        US military just needs to goes in and “liberate” them. US would then set up a system to get a faction of the locals to do the looting by proxy. Military interventions when needed to restore stability of the looting regime.

        • S says:

          That’s crazier. After one round the factories shut down because they can’t pay their workers. Raw materials are useless without a way to turn them into goods and the factories were all shipped to China. The basic problem is at some point there needs to be a capitalist involved actually making things and our elite hate capitalists because they make things.

          • James says:

            The point is that they can still export those raw materials to China, and although they hate capitalists, they do occasionally temporarily tolerate them — the Silicon Valley Exception being such an example.

            These kinds of scenarios, in fact, are exactly what the Republican Party exists for: to take over when Leftism can’t get anything done, and to willingly give the mechanisms of power back to the Leftists to continue their crusade once they’re no longer needed.

            • jim says:

              The silicon valley exception died some time ago. It was dying or dead when I fled.

              However current circumstances mean that Musk damn well better get a Musk exception.

              • James says:

                The Silicon Valley Exception is dead, but it’s proof that the Cathedral can create such exceptions as needed.

                Musk was having the noose tightened, but an exception may be in order, especially given that he has always been hated by the Russians and he’s publicly donated starlink stations to Ukraine. I think this will actually be a test of the ability of the saner elements of the Cathedral to control the narrative against the wishes of their increasingly insane elements. Hypothesis: If Musk gets his exception, sociopaths within the Cathedral still rule; if not, control has passed to the demons.

                • Red says:

                  The shills are still attacking Musk full force. If they let up, I expect the FAA will suddenly get out of the way.

                • jim says:

                  I see a whole lot of shill announcements that Russia has been defeated in the Ukraine.

                  They still have not gotten their narrative together.

                  In a few months, it will be easier to figure out what is up.

                • jim says:

                  > If Musk gets his exception, sociopaths within the Cathedral still rule; if not, control has passed to the demons.

                  Looks like the Covid hysteria was demonic, not sociopathic.

                  Worst Fears Realized: Pfizer mRNA Integrates into your DNA

                  If the demons keep the upper hand, war with Russia will aim not at victory, but nukes.

                  The story now coming out around Covid is not necessarily proof that people who seem to be be demon possessed are possessed by literal demons, but it does show that modeling them as possessed by literal demons is predictive of their behavior.

                • Red says:

                  Jim, Holy shit.

                  From the 4chan post listed at the bottom:

                  Next generation of female offspring have premature ovarian failure.

                  You make this a post.

                  God Damn these monsters.

                • jim says:

                  Posting about it bye and bye.

                  Seems as if the Covid hysteria was intended to kill us all. And now the Covid hysteria and the jogger hysteria has been turned off as if by a switch, yet the Musk shilling continues. Since most of Musk’s most advanced technologies are likely to be critical for war, that seems odd. Is that merely normal Cathedral disunity, or does it indicate they are not interested in winning the war, just in nukes flying?

                • jim says:

                  I have been following Igor Chudov for a little while, and at first it was “Oh wow. The craziest conspiracy theories about Covid are true”

                  And then after a bit it was more “too long, don’t read. Of course the Covidians are evil and insane. What do you expect”

                • Red says:

                  Sorry that should have read:

                  You should make this a post.

                  Dyslexia is a bitch.

                  I was checking /r/space tonight on reddit and all the comments normally shilling against Elon were missing and a bunch of non shill comments where mildly praising him, like they were looking over their shoulders hoping not to be slapped down for it. It’s so rare to see a thread like that not dominated by shills.

                  That doesn’t indicate a change in shilling, just the cathedral shilling operations are working on a new message or busy elsewhere. Musk is positioning himself well for the coming war effort without jumping on board with the Russian hate.

                • jim says:

                  Musk technologies are critical for winning future wars.

                  If some of the people behind the latest turn are merely evil, rather than demonic, they will want to protect him from the demons.

                  But it is likely that that the merely evil have done a deal with people whose conduct is well modeled as demonic possession – (the Covidians) and will find the deal works out in their disfavor.

                • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                  “Gee shucks fellas, i’d sure love to provide those Starlinks to all those stunning AK babushkas and brave LGBBQWERTY ghosts of Kiev, but there’s all this dang red tape you see holding the starship deployments back…”

                  Musk played it about as well as he could have given the intolerable situation he was put it, not a whole lot he could normally do otherwise.

                  (But a whole lot that could be done, if willing to act *ab*normally.)

                • simplyconnected says:

                  Seems as if the Covid hysteria was intended to kill us all.

                  If, as it increasingly looks to be the case, they were trying to depopulate with the injection after all, wouldn’t it make sense that they are now trying to cover up the vax damage with nuclear fire? These people must know what it means for the population to find out what was done to them.

                • Kunning Drueger says:

                  I’d like to believe Musk is /ourguy/, and he very well may be regardless of what I require for belief. But it is also relevant that, if Musk is essential to a war effort, and Musk is loyal to the GAE, then it is in Russia/China best interest to kill or capture. Is he that singular, or is he just the public face of the usual thousand or so that comprise an engineering elite in a given thought space? Either way, he’s a target, the only thing that changes is the scope of the mitigation operation.

                  I’m not some peacenik faggot, but wars suck when they require you to eliminate brilliant people, and, again, if he’s unique and loyal, the best bet is to remove the piece from the board.

                • jim says:

                  > Is he that singular, or is he just the public face of the usual thousand or so that comprise an engineering elite in a given thought space?

                  He really is that singular. New technological advances always are. A thousand people, no matter how smart, cannot do diddly squat – it is a corollary to the statement that adding more people to a late project makes it later.

                  A smart guy can do considerably more if he has a thousand smart people under him, but without the smart guy at the top, nothing gets done. An applied technological advance always comes down to one man making it.

                  You cannot turn labor into rockets, any more than Mao could turn labor into steel.

                  I am fond of telling the story of Wernher von Braun, but have told it too many times already.

                • clovis says:

                  >Musk technologies are critical for winning future wars.

                  Besides the space tech, there are also the neuralink sort of transhumanist ventures that Musk is into, and I have a tough time seeing how being a cyborg is compatible with the imago dei. But even more importantly, you would be an idiot to get brain implants, even if they worked, especially if they worked, given what we know about the surveillance state. Neuralink has made me suspicious of Musk.

                • Cloudswrest says:

                  Musk tweet thread on Starlink signal jamming.

                • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                  >Is he that singular, or is he just the public face of the usual thousand or so that comprise an engineering elite in a given thought space?

                  Consider the example of Gerald Bull; under his auspices, technology in artillery and long distance tube launched applications in general (highly relevant for economic scale launching of satellite swarms) was advanced, and after the glowniggers whacked him, stopped advancing.

                • The Cominator says:

                  Gerald Bull is one of the few conspiracies where i can honestly and unironically say the jews did it.

              • Cloudswrest says:

                Re. Gerald Bull, decades ago I worked with a mechanical engineer who had previously worked with him.

              • Cloudswrest says:

                … tube launched applications …

                Speaking of “tube launched applications” I think Musk should merge his rocket technology with his Boring Co technology, and his hyperloop technology. Launch a rocket through a long straight tunnel drilled through the Andes. You’re sure to get much more fuel efficiency in a confined bore space than in the open atmosphere. The same thrust/acceleration with throttled back engines. Combine with Hyperloop technology to evacuate the air in the tunnel before launch!!!! Even more, you can make the tunnel a linear motor (coilgun) with an appropriate armature sabot for the rocket and get more, fuel free, acceleration.

                • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                  I’ve had similar thoughts as well, missile silos using hi-lo pressure systems for boost, ‘launch ramps’ going up or through mountains to accelerate a space vehicle to speed before it needs to use it’s own fuel, which affords a cascading effect in design…

                • Cloudswrest says:

                  And if the astronauts are submerged, horizontally, in neutral buoyant saline (special launch tank couches) they could probably endure 20 g’s acceleration without much discomfort.

                • Kunning Drueger says:

                  SEA DRAGON!!!

                • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                  Speaking of water ballast, that reminds me of my favorite reaction engine, nuclear salt-water rockets.

  17. Megafauna says:

    What practical preparations can and should be made at this time for nuclear war, either small scale or large?

    • jim says:

      I am not much worried about nukes – I am far more worried about enemies in power. I have moved as far from power as one can go without swimming, which is a comfortable distance from anywhere likely to get nuked.

      And if nukes go off then that removes the center of power.

      • Pooch says:

        How many miles from a city should one feel comfortable regarding nukes?

        • Kunning Drueger says:

          50 miles plus prevailing winds, but it may be irrelevant if it is a barrage.

          • Pooch says:

            Damn I’m right at 40 as the crow flies. Oh well, hopefully god grants me a quick and painless death if it comes to that.

            • Kunning Drueger says:

              An SME could probably correct this, and my information may be out of date, so take with salt.

              Movies love mushroom clouds, so whenever they model nukes they use basically the Tsar Bomba or Castle Bravo (50 megatons and 15 megatons respectively). Those are fuck off huge devices. Those things can’t be put on a missile/rocket (i believe) but must be delivered by plane or boat or train. The more terrifying devices are ICBM delivered MIRVs, rather, a bunch of multi-megaton warheads clustering off a single rocket. This is the multi-strike, doomsday scenario portrayed in a strategic nuclear exchange. This is peak US and USSR committed to annihilation. This is unlikely in current year because the devices might not work, there might not be the will to do it, and there’s really no coming back from a first strike in terms of propaganda; at that point it is total victory or death.

              Again, from my midwit, armchair perspective, nuclear devices that could be used effectively are tactical nuke strikes against massed military supplies to obviate an invasion or a coherent repulsion of an invasion. Poland is a very likely target for this, should the war escalate. Additionally, low yield or dirty bomb devices would be very effective for a false flag attack. These are miniscule compared to the TB or CB devices mentioned earlier. We’re talking downtown Manhattan is hit, and you’re alive and terrified uptown. These device yields are measured in kilotons. So let’s say DC is hit with a 5-10 kt device (we’re talking Hiroshima/Nagasaki type): don’t be downtown. If you’re in Alexandria, and you’re lucky to be looking away and shielded from the blast wave, you want to head west, as the prevailing wind is North and East. Fairfax County would definitely see it, probably hear it, but wouldn’t be remotely damaged on the level of the strike area. In a nuclear event, there’s the light wave that happens, which is incredibly destructive to your eyes and can parboil things that are close, the compression wave, then the “explosion” itself. The reach and size of the waves is dependent upon the yield of the device. TB was seen, heard, and felt hundreds of miles away, thousands of miles away, even hemispheres away for some of the energy released (plenty written on this, so don’t take my word, i might be misremembering). tests occurred in Nevada in the 1950s and people would literally spectate.

              I think the 2 most likely nuclear possibilities are a tactical strike against Poland & frens to neutralize any response, and a dirty bomb or low yield in a black city in the US to reduce crime and galvanize a war effort.

              Again, I’m no authority, please correct inaccuracies or downright retardation, I’m no SME.

              • Pooch says:

                Good information. In your scenario of a White House hit, what would it look like to the east downwind?

                • Wulfgar Thundercock III says:

                  From what I remember of nuclear survival, if it is an airburst nuke, there are three important times. 8 hours, 1 day, and 3 days are the times it takes for radiation from an airburst nuke to decay 90%, 99%, and 99.9%, respectively. You absolutely do not want to go anywhere for the first 8 hours if at all possible, preferably not until after the first day. If they use a surface nuke or a subsurface nuke, these times are a lot longer, because more soil and particles gets irradiated, but the range of radiological contamination decreases the closer to the ground the weapon is detonated.

                  However, there is a second problem with nuke strikes, which is superfires. Pretty much everything combustible withing the thermal pulse will ignite, and a massive wave of fire spreads outwards. Really bad in urban areas, as there is no way to organize a response because of the blast and also the sheer scale of the fire. If you are within a metro that is likely to get nuked in an exchange, I would probably recommend having a bug out setup ready so that you can throw it in the car and try to outrun the fire and the looting. Not a great option, just the best.

                • Pooch says:

                  I would probably recommend having a bug out setup ready so that you can throw it in the car and try to outrun the fire and the looting. Not a great option, just the best.

                  Even 40 miles from the blast site that would be needed?

                • jim says:

                  Nukes are exaggerated.

                  Typical big nuke, suitable for counter value, too big for counterforce or beheading strikes, 340 kilotons.

                  Thermal radius 7 kilometres (everything catches on fire, and if you are in line of sight, you get massive burn injuries that will likely be fatal and certainly permanently disabling.

                  Blast radius 5 kilometers (everything gets knocked down, and you likely suffer death or serious injury even if you are not in line of sight.

                  Forty kilometres is a very big nuke, difficult to deliver, twenty megatons. I don’t believe that anyone has twenty megaton nukes. The largest nuke the US ever tested was fifteen megatons, and it was not a practical or useful weapon.

                  Cities will probably be hit with airburst nukes exploding about three kilometers up. If you live and work more than seven kilometres from the center of a major city, and it gets nuked, head for the countryside faster than the wind blows, then check the wind direction and head upwind. If, on the other hand, you live and work in a big city, then when things start getting hot, time to take a long vacation.

                  Major cities such as New York will likely be hit by many nukes of about 300 kilotons, so you may well have to be a whole lot further than seven kilometers.

                • Neofugue says:

                  > I would probably recommend having a bug out setup ready so that you can throw it in the car and try to outrun the fire and the looting

                  In the event of a nuclear strike every road or highway in and out of the affected area if not destroyed will be blocked with traffic or cordoned off by the military; any attempt to outrun a nuclear attack will lead to certain death. Your best bet is to head for an old Cold War shelter or subway and starve for a week. If you do not have a private bunker any food or water will be stolen or taken from you.

                  If you live within 50 miles or so your best bet would be to store around 10-20 gallons of water and some non-perishables in your basement along with plenty of toilet paper and waste disposal items. Stay away from windows and pray no one finds you.

                • jim says:

                  As I said, nukes are exagerrated.

                  Yes, they will erase the big cities, but the suburbs mostly be fine.

                  There will be traffic jams, but most cars on the road every day. They will not be enormously worse than normal traffic jams. If you are far enough from the city to not be killed in a nuclear strike, you are far enough that traffic jams will not be a problem.

                  The military is likely to collapse and be incapable of organized action, since the primary objective of the strike will be to behead command and control. You are likely to have a problem with brigands, not soldiers. Take a gun, and form a convoy with other people who have guns.

                • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                  If you are not in the blast radii, then the biggest danger is contaminated dust kicked up into the winds by the blast, and this can be handled by well insulated living spaces with good intake filtration, assuming you are hunkering down for a week or so for the half-lives to wind down before moving out.

                • Wulfgar Thundercock III says:

                  If you are 50 miles out you are probably safe from the blast and the radiation. Most of what “everybody knows” about nukes is worthless because of the decades of anti-nuke propaganda by leftists. However, if you are that close to DC, do not expect a nuke. Expect several, possibly dozens. Also, if I am Putin and I am looking at a decapitation strike on the US, I am spreading the love to the DC, Maryland, and Virginia suburbs. Get all the apparachiks of the regime while they are at home, asleep. Collateral damage is not something I would lose sleep over.

                  So what you really have to worry about at that range is collapse of order and fallout, in that order. 3 days gets you to basically safe to walk around in levels of radiation if they are using airbursts. Might be different if they start hitting DC with surface/subsurface nukes to scour bunkers. Then you have more time, but the radiation is going to be much worse and last longer. You need to be able to defend yourself, so gang up with the hardest looking refugees, and get the fuck away from the cities.

                • James says:

                  Military targets and logistics infrastructure are also far more likely to be targeted than actual cities. Living near a shipyard, military base, or nuclear silo will ensure that you are far more likely to be nuked than living in a medium-to-large city without such infrastructure. But living a 20-30 minute drive away from these places, in a house with plenty of hills around, is probably adequate to keep you safe in the short run. Stay indoors and away from windows for 2 weeks and you are probably totally safe from fallout, too.

                • Red says:

                  There’s not enough warheads for all the military and logistical targets(1500ish currently). The majority of the targets in a nuclear exchange will be aimed at centers of power, IE big cities with multiple warheads impacting. Air bases and SAC targets will also be hit along with major ports, though nukes are unlikely to knock out a major port unless they really pile on the warheads.

                  Though there is the issue of Russia sea drone nukes. They suppose to be able to generate tidal waves. I’m not sure if the tech is real, but if so you can kiss NYC, Florida, LA, San Fran, and Seattle areas goodbye.

  18. Red says:

    The roll back of COVID is total. They’re not even going to keep the boosters. I’m reading stories about black criminals murdering people on reddit and people even mentioning the race of the murder without getting banned. They might be planning a roll back on crime as well, the pro crime position isn’t commanding nearly as much support.

    Cuckservitives are jumping on the war with Putin bandwagon with crazy enthusiasm. As Jim suggested this might all be them re-gearing for war with Russia.

    • ExileStyle says:

      That’s how it happened right before WWII. By the mid-30s, communism was so widely tolerated you could be a more or less open communist even in high-up government positions. With that came all the usual nonsense, feminism, race stuff etc., then the war machine started up and no longer. Problem is, this was just putting the emergency brakes on temporarily, as we now see.

      A war with Russia, which Russia would undoubtedly lose, might pause the holiness spiral to increase holy territory before reigniting the final holiness spiral after the victory.

      That or it escalates to nuclear war, which sometimes honestly seems like the best outcome…”For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?”

      • Red says:

        Nuclear war is more likely than not. The murderous rage they have the mob in won’t be appeased without a lot of mass murder of a Russians. The Russian’s won’t hesitate to nuke us if it plays out that way.

        • Pooch says:

          The Russians very likely have first strike capability with working nukes, something the US likely does not.

        • Pete says:

          The “murderous rage” of the leftist mob can be re-directed at will or switched off at the whim of the Deep State. In 2020, the mob was rampaging through cities, burning and looting at will but they switched it off when not needed.

          The Karens and Twitterites have been frothing at the mouth to slaughter the unvaxxed for months now, but the Deep State is turning that off too, now that they see most people are tired of Covid theater.

          They needed a distraction from domestic supply chain failures and rising prices, so now the rage is being directed at Russia. But once it’s no longer needed, Deep State will again flip the switch and turn it off. The NPCs will wander about in a daze for a day or two, then the teevee will give them their new programming and they will tear off screaming at the new target. This is not a mob that must be “appeased.” This mob is being controlled.

          Don’t worry about nuclear war. The Deep State knows that DC, NYC and the Pentagon would be the first targets, so they won’t let it happen. If they could somehow contrive to have all the bombs fall in red states, then sure…but that seems unikely.

          • Red says:

            The “murderous rage” of the leftist mob can be re-directed at will or switched off at the whim of the Deep State. In 2020, the mob was rampaging through cities, burning and looting at will but they switched it off when not needed.

            I think it’s a function of the holiness spiral, all that rage has been transferred from the unvaccinated to the Russians. Ever larger sacrifices of blood is required to appease their demons. One target is much like another, but the blood lust and rage continues to grow looking for an outlet unless the spiral is cut short by killing the people leading it.

            Don’t worry about nuclear war. The Deep State knows that DC, NYC and the Pentagon would be the first targets, so they won’t let it happen. If they could somehow contrive to have all the bombs fall in red states, then sure…but that seems unikely.

            No one plans to have a war of annihilation, they just kind of fall into it. People are now saying that Russia wouldn’t dare use their nukes so we can safely ignore them, much the way they say you can safely be around niggers.

      • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

        I don’t think it’s undoubtable that a peer conflict between USG and Russia would end well for USG, there’s a whole lot of doubt there at this point. And if events go that way it’s very likely China would be drawn into the frackas too.

        • Red says:

          I can’t see any possibility China staying out. Russia has the raw materials they need and without Russia as a life line the US can strangle China. Though I don’t understand China’s mindset.

      • Karl says:

        ExileStyle, why do you think that Russia would undoubtedly lose a war with the US?

        • ExileStyle says:

          Apart from the yawning chasm in GDP ($1.4B vs. $21B), military technology level and budget ($48B vs. $681B that we know of, then add all of NATO to that), human population (144M vs. 330M) and global “allies”/colonies (virtually everyone but China), I doubt Russia would preemptively use nuclear weapons in a serious way (they’ve proven they’re sincere about their Christianity, for better or worse, in avoiding civilian casualties), which means that if they engaged at all with GAE they’d engage conventionally and you’d have to be smoking something pretty powerful to think they’d come out of that well. Hell, even in nuclear war they might get some hits in but it’s hard to have the whole rest of the world except Belarus and North Korea either against you or sitting it out.

          This isn’t controversial is it?

          • Karl says:

            US GDP numbers give about as reliable a picture of manufacturing abilities as Soviet GDP numbers did. GDP is not irrelevant, but it matter a lot how it is achieved. Diversity councelling and services in general are not as important as manufactoring in a war.

            US military technology is showing tachnological decay, e.g. F-35. Russian military technology seems to be advancing, e.g. hypersonic missiles.

            Human population is indeed an area where the US looks better, but a larger part of the US population is not productive or useful in any way – simply unable to contribute to a war effort.

            Desire to avoid civilian casualties is a reason not to use strategic nukes. I don’t think it is a convincing reason not to use tactical nukes.

            So yes, it is controversial.

          • alf says:

            That seems like a plausible outcome.

            But in line with the original post topic: making specific predictions is hard. Especially about such grand developments that may take several years to play out. A lot can happen.

          • jim says:


            As for allies, Britain has a hundred generals, but can only put a hundred boots on the ground. They suffered repeated humiliating defeats by bands of lightly armed goat herders in Basra, and had to be repeated rescued in Helmand Province.

            The British navy surrendered to a torpedo boat in the Persian gulf.

            America’s allies are a liability, not an asset.

            This could be fixed, or at least made somewhat less disastrous, and the sudden disappearance of the Mighty and Awesome Covid Demon, and the fact that is now possible to report the race of a criminal without being cancelled, deplatformed, and demonetized tells me that an effort is under way to fix it, but they have a mighty long way to go before they could face the Russians, or even the Ukrainians.

            American “GDP” is mostly a parasitic FIRE economy, the blue megalopoli charging red America very large amounts of money to move paper around. What you need to look at for war is manufacturing, mining, and farming.

          • Wulfgar Thundercock III says:

            In regards to the human population, you have to remove most minorities from that number because they are combat ineffective against whites. East Asians are probably safe to count, but not Hispanics or Africans. That makes the population imbalance a lot less severe than for them.

          • James says:

            GDP is a joke when it comes to Russia. Russia’s PPP GDP is vastly higher than their nominal GDP, and when you look at the actual numbers of soldiers involved (and how united and tough they are), it looks a lot less optimistic than the US. We have (we think) better stealth and engine technology, but they have better missile technology and they don’t have to pretend black women are just as good at engineering as white males.

      • jim says:

        > A war with Russia, which Russia would undoubtedly lose, might pause the holiness spiral to increase holy territory before reigniting the final holiness spiral after the victory.

        I doubt our nukes work. Our army, our navy, and our air force does not work.

        When Hitler won the 1933 election, feminism in the US suddenly and silently vanished away, but now, to prepare for war, they need to undo a lot more stuff than they undid in 1933.

        Worship of the Holy, Awesome, and Mighty Covid Demon has suddenly gone quiet. We may well see a strange disappearance of rainbow flags for the military. It has suddenly become possible to mention the race of joggers without being cancelled, deplatformed, and demonetized. Perhaps as World War three comes close it may become possible to notice most sex with children, and all sex with little girls who were not stubbornly looking for it, is done by gays.

        This, however, is merely a reprieve from the holiness spiral, and I doubt they can prepare for war without a far larger reprieve requiring far more drastic measures.

        Ending worship of the Holy, Awesome, and Mighty Covid Demon is a big step. But they need to take quite a few more steps before you can say that Russia is likely to lose.

        • Karl says:

          As preparation for war requires drastic measures, I expect the US will enter the war unprepared or not at all.

        • ExileStyle says:

          >I doubt our nukes work. Our army, our navy, and our air force does not work.

          They may not work as well they pretend or expect, but that’s a long way away from “not working” at all. And it’s not like Russia has some magic power to make their stuff work more than US’s stuff.

          A major reason US lost in Afghanistan was the bureaucratization of war. Every decision had to be channeled through DC and their lawyers. This was for a country no one cared about. You never saw 24/7 anti-Pashtun propaganda. You do see a 24/7 Russia hate machine though, and Russians are white Christians, which means GAE might be a bit more open to carpet bombing than they have been in a while.

          • The Cominator says:

            It would be easier for the regime to give up on women’s rights crap than to give up on having lawyers run everything…

          • jim says:

            > They may not work as well they pretend or expect, but that’s a long way away from “not working” at all.

            Most of our newer fighter planes are grounded for one reason or another. The Navy hangs in port, because when they sail forth they are apt to run into dangerously stationary objects.

            The army is still somewhat functional, but morale has collapsed and discipline is disintegrating. The chain of command is now a bunch of committees with too many people on them.

            The famous warthog is still deadly, but they are scrounging forgotten arms dumps for seventy year old warthog parts, because the newer versions do not actually work all that well.

            And as for nukes: There is a rule in place that if the president wants to test a nuke, he has to wait for a very long time, long enough that there is likely to be a new president by that time. This tells me that nukes do not work any more. That, plus assorted trails of chaos with attempts to keep nukes in working order. (Out of tritium, inability to replace various components that have deteriorated. It is the Senate Lunch System rocket.)

            It is obvious that when the people who knew how to build and maintain nukes retired, their replacements were simply incapable of doing the job.

            • Kunning Drueger says:

              A person I trust with very relevant experience, when I made the same points you did, pointed out that you could have partial chain reactions and “big explosions,” even if they don’t actually work. Only experts would see the difference, and the facts wouldn’t come out for a long time (maybe never, depending on outcome). Everything else you said still stands; if the US goes to war, it is going to be a terribly rude wake up when the tranny division turns their guns on each other, the black women’s navy runs aground, and the diversity corps surrender en masse.

              If progressive America marches to war, we should sit it out, then aggressively restructure society domestically.

              • Starman says:

                @Kunning Drueger

                “if the US goes to war, it is going to be a terribly rude wake up when the tranny division turns their guns on each other, the black women’s navy runs aground, and the diversity corps surrender en masse.”

                The niggers and the troons will flee White countries as soon as the balloon goes up.

                • Kunning Drueger says:

                  In the words of Wulfgar the Bold, “From your lips to God’s ears.”

          • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

            > And it’s not like Russia has some magic power to make their stuff work more than US’s stuff.

            The magic power is socio-spiritual zeitgeist.

        • notglowing says:

          > It has suddenly become possible to mention the race of joggers without being cancelled, deplatformed, and demonetized.

          Has it? I’m hearing it from different people here but it’s news to me. What did I miss?

        • Leon says:

          I am not sure the powers that be can undo all of the stuff needed. For one thing, during WW2 they powers that be still had stable traditions to go back to. Even the oldest amongst the elite may not remember any stable traditionalism. The best they could hope for is to wind back to clock back to Reagan’s days, and even then I doubt they could do that or be willing to.

          • Varna says:

            The last “game save” in a systemic sense is probably between 1st term Barak and 2nd term Bush Jr.

            The liberast wing is trying to quickly reinvent themselves as a neo-Barak thing and the neocon wing is going for neo-Bush Jr as seen on Fox News and the Bannon/Falun Gong quasi-indie media space.

            In other words it seems to me that the last system save was between the Russia-Georgia war and Libya’s fall. They can tap into that. The people who were in their 40s and 50s then are in their 50s and 60s today. And that, I think, is the ceiling.

            • Gedeon says:

              We jumped to the CSIS script and Soros had to cuck for war with Putin/Xi. Eric Schmidt and Jim Messina are worth watching for a resurrection of the technocracy scheme, however.

              CSIS = Crown/Pritzker

              If Putin is serious, he will go for Chicago from Hyde Park all of the way north to North Chicago, Manhattan, and all of Aspen/Basalt/Snowmass. DC is just the symbol of power and full of worker bees, but not the brain trust.

              TBH, I believe all of the WEF models failed because neither the virus nor the vaccines came close to their assumed mortality rates. Biden camp was signaling the dark winter for two winters and it never came to be. Keep in mind, continued boosting is imitating HIV and would lead to AIDS mortality, but people live a long time in HIV state.

      • Pooch says:

        A war with Russia, which Russia would undoubtedly lose

        What a bizarre and absurd thing to say, after we just watched the GAE get the shit kicked out of it in Afghanistan by goat herders and are now watching it get the shit kicked out of it by Russia in Ukraine.

        • ExileStyle says:

          Yeah, totally bizarre to think that an order of magnitude of difference in both military budget and economic output might make a Russian victory a rather miraculous outcome. The burden of proof isn’t on me here.

          Guys, we’re talking about an Empire that over the last two years forced virtually the entire world – including and especially Russia – to implement an unprecedented bio-dictatorship based on a virus likely manufactured by this Empire itself and a gene-altering serum definitely manufactured by this Empire all of which it was able to do with hardly any state-level resistance. We’re talking about an Empire that prevents us from talking frankly here because we’re afraid of being doxxed and losing our careers or worse, and has now tricked even more of the world into joining NATO and destroying Russia, all in a matter of days.

          I’m not trying to blackpill, I just think it’s lazy and dangerous to not take the enemy seriously and pretend like the Taliban “conquering” Afghanistan (i.e. filling a vacuum) is anything like what we could see with a GAE-Russia engagement.

          I wouldn’t use the words “undoubtedly lose” anymore after the feedback, which has given some food for thought, but let’s keep it real or we’re just living in fantasy land. Maybe more like “would need a miracle to prevail.” But still, we’re talking a world where US’s actual military capacity would need to be at less than 10% of expected capacity based on military funding and Russia at 100% of expected for it to be an even match one-on-one.

          While not impossible, that would be astonishing.

          • Pooch says:

            We’re talking about an Empire that prevents us from talking frankly here because we’re afraid of being doxxed and losing our careers or worse, and has now tricked even more of the world into joining NATO and destroying Russia, all in a matter of days.

            You’re also talking about an empire that allows women to crash land F-35s into the ocean and niggers to crash naval ships into stationary objects.

            It is very clear to anyone with eyes that the American empire is in severe terminal decline from its past greatness. Also, starting to look like the Russian empire is an ascending one.

            It’s not at all obvious that the GAE could still win a war against Russia. That’s not to say it isn’t possible, I don’t think any one here is saying it isn’t, but to assume Russia would “need a miracle to prevail” is equivalent to saying Alaric and the Visigoths would need a miracle to defeat the Roman Army in the early 5th century.

            • ExileStyle says:

              “Severe terminal decline” – absolutely, no doubt about that. But using the spending and capability-to-spend-more (GDP) measures, which are admittedly flawed, but the best objective yardstick I can think of, we’d be talking about a 90-95% decline. While that would be wonderful, I would, again, be astonished.

              Behind my concern here is the fact that Russia is the last big man standing in Europe against globohomo, and if Russia falls – say by losing their engagement with GAE – then what the fuck is left?

              • Pooch says:

                GDP is a poor measure of military capability. Russia seems to already have a substantial lead in hypersonic missiles over the GAE.

                if Russia falls – say by losing their engagement with GAE – then what the fuck is left?


              • jim says:

                > But using the spending and capability-to-spend-more (GDP) measures

                There is no capability to spend.

                Printing a few trillion dollars to spend on a modern military is easy. Actually spending it such a way that you actually get a modern military is hard.

                The state deciding that something complicated will come into existence does not magically bring it into existence. Not only could they not magically create the Senate Lunch System Rocket, they could not magically create “Shovel Ready Projects”, nor the Obamacare website, nor subways, etc.

                The limiting factor is not money. It is not even manufacturing capability. It is the capacity to apply that manufacturing capability.

                Aircraft carriers have likely been rendered irrelevant by hypersonic missiles. Russia and China have the capability to produce hypersonic missiles. The US does not.

                Tanks and mobile artillery have been rendered irrelevant by advanced drones, and everyone who realizes this (most militaries are stuck in the mid twentieth century) is importing advanced drones from Turkey, which has been taught how to fight modern wars by modern insurgencies equipped with old fashioned US government stuff.

                • ExileStyle says:

                  > Aircraft carriers have likely been rendered irrelevant by hypersonic missiles. Russia and China have the capability to produce hypersonic missiles. The US does not.

                  Now that is an interesting concrete fact that could make a substantial difference.

                  As far as GDP/economics/failed websites and subways, I’m not sure Russia is too much better on that front, but I don’t really know. Putin also seems to have potential for Trump-stumbling in him, i.e. faltering due to a sentimental desire for things to be the way they once were when reality has become different and more brutal. (Too bad Lukashenko isn’t running this show, he handled that color revolution bullshit brilliantly.)

                  I suspect we’d need an actual confrontation to get enough information to determine the real state of things.

                  i officially recant the “undoubtedly lose” part. Still wouldn’t want my money much less my fate wagered on Russia over US, though.

                • Mike in Boston says:

                  Too bad Lukashenko isn’t running this show, he handled that color revolution bullshit brilliantly.

                • Pooch says:

                  On an actual Russian-US direct confrontation total war scenario, my money would be on a nuclear Holocaust which means it’s probably not all that relevant who “wins”. We all lose.

                • jim says:

                  > We all lose

                  I live far indeed from any plausible target, and everything I use is produced a fair distance from the big city centers.

                • Mike in Boston says:

                  [sorry for the accidental earlier partial post]

                  Too bad Lukashenko isn’t running this show, he handled that color revolution bullshit brilliantly.

                  That he did indeed. Not to mention resistingclot-shot mandates and holding out against QR code cattle tags, although he eventually went down to defeat and had to accept Russia’s.

                  But still, the good job that Lukashenko did won’t be enough, not indefinitely. As one Westerner in Belarus wrote:

                  Vegan/Hipster bars and cafes continue to metastasize like cancer all over Minsk and even smaller towns in the country, lovingly adorned with POC portraits and hipster minimalist art. Normal, patriotic conservatives are stuck at home, listening to grandpa rant about defeating the Fascists in a war he was too young to have participated in.”

                  As long as Globohomo and its thought patterns are high status in Belarus, Luka is fighting a holding action at best. Maybe this war and the severing of economic ties between east and west will change that; but somehow I’m not hopeful. As cut off from the West as the USSR was, somehow jeans and jazz became high status there.

                • Pooch says:

                  As cut off from the West as the USSR was, somehow jeans and jazz became high status there.

                  The USSR collapsed into the West.

              • Starman says:


                “We’re talking about an Empire that prevents us from talking frankly here because we’re afraid of being doxxed and losing our careers or worse, and has now tricked even more of the world into joining NATO and destroying Russia, all in a matter of days.”

                You email caste types are limpwristed and the FIRE economy is fake and gay.

                • ExileStyle says:

                  Ah, as opposed to the typical salt-of-the-earth farmers and battle-hardened warriors who write the rest of reactionary blog comments? Shouldn’t you be studying your Clausewitz or something, or at least out training your warhorses, maybe polishing up your chariot wheels?

                  How did the Venetian Republic’s FIRE economy work out for it? Should we ask the Byzantines?

                • yewotm8 says:

                  I don’t think procuring real goods and handling their shipping/distribution is parasitic and cannot be considered FIRE economy. That’s the kind of thing that a FIRE economy/overgrown bureaucracy prays on.

              • James says:

                Global firepower rates America at 0.45 and Russia at 0.5 — this is an actual military comparison by people who know a little bit about military comparisons, not measuring countries’ military by the weight of their merchants.

                It’s also worth noting that Russia has, comparatively, no Navy, and doesn’t need one in a defensive war.

                Russia has basically unlimited oil and food. It has virtually unlimited in-house weapons manufacturing. It has strong media control and much higher social cohesion than America. It has massive amounts of foreign reserves. It has a much better balance of trade. The long-term prognosis doesn’t look great for America. GDP doesn’t win wars; artillery in the right place does. All of Russia’s military is in or around Russia, whereas ours is scattered across the world and full of trannies.

          • James says:

            A military guy I once knew told me, “If we ever go to a war that relies on even a single destroyer being fully operational at any time in that war, we will lose.”. Every other surface fleet grunt agreed. It’s a shitshow in our military.

            But we’d need to be at more like less than 25% of strength in order to be fought to a standstill. Russia is very, very difficult to take, and our will for such a war is quite low.

            I don’t think Russia would beat as so much as it would outlast us once we realized we weren’t as invincible as we once thought. This isn’t tiny, resource-starved Nazi Germany with no oil. This is the remnants of a super power that not too long ago rivaled the US. Yes, it has declined since then, but so have we. We’ve been relying on sheer mass and the fact that nobody was willing to risk war with us; that is no longer the case.

    • Mike in Boston says:

      They’re not even going to keep the boosters.

      I know of one large government contractor that is quietly alerting staff that boosters will become mandatory. Maybe it’s inertia, maybe it’s an outlier. But maybe it’s a sign that the coronamaximalist camp has not yet lost all power.

      • The Cominator says:

        They’ll bring it back at some point and NPCs will buy it, this is why they need to go.

        • Pooch says:

          It is kind of impressive how quickly they were able to completely shutdown all holiness spiraling during wartime.

      • Karl says:

        What is the point of such a quiet alert? As soon as boosters are mandatory, people will have to deal with it either by complying, faking compliance, stalling, etc. What does he want the alerted staff to do NOW before boosters are mandatory?

        • Mike in Boston says:

          Good question. I can only speculate that the purpose of the quiet alert now is so that when the shoe drops and employees protest, he will be able to point to this week’s announcement. “What are you complaining about? I told you about this back in March.”

  19. restitutor_orbis says:

    Here’s an analysis of Russian invasion of Ukraine compared to historical invasions. I used the DuPuy Institute’s data for some parts of this analysis.

    1. Russia’s rate of conquest is extraordinary: 1.43 times faster than Israel in 1967, 1.85 times faster than US in Iraq in 2003, and 10 times faster than US in Kuwait in 1991.

    2. Russia has plausibly lost up to 15% of its tank force but the alleged death toll of 5,000+ is grossly exaggerated. Russian deaths are in the range of 234 to 1100 dead at most. Ukraine has plausibly lost 36% of its tank force.

    3. If Russia wants to conquer all of Ukraine, victory will be complete by the end of March, after around 41 days of fighting.

    Israel conquered the Golan Heights (690 square miles), the West Bank (2173 square miles) and Sinai (23,000 square miles), for a total of 25,863 square miles.
    Israel deployed 264,000 troops vs. 100,000 Egyptians; 75,000 Syrians; and 55,000 Jordanians. Israel started with 800 tanks and 300 combat aircraft. The Arabs started with 2,054 tanks and 957 combat aircraft.
    It took 6 days for Israel to conquer the theater, for a rate of conquest of 4280 square miles per day or .016 square miles per soldier per day.
    The DuPuy Institute rates the Combat Effectiveness Values (CEV) of these soldiers as Israeli 3.5, Jordan 2.27, Egyptian 2, and Syrian 1.33. So the overall force ratio was (264,000 x 3.5) vs. (200,000 + 99,750 + 124,850), or 924 vs 424, or 2.2 to 1.
    In conquering the Golan Heights, West Bank, and Sinai, Israel lost 983 soldiers (0.3%), 400 tanks (50%) and 46 aircraft (15%). The Arabs lost 17,500 soldiers (7.6%), 950 tanks (46%), and 452 aircraft (47%). There were very few civilian casualties.
    Note that the Israelis suffered per-capita armored vehicle losses that were *higher* than the Arabs. This is because fast-moving tank attacks incur more losses, many of which are mobility kills.

    The US conquered Kuwait, a total of 6,880 square miles.
    US deployed 700,000 troops vs Iraq’s 650,000 troops. US started with 2,300 tanks. Iraq started with 4280 tanks.
    It took 4.25 days to conquer Kuwait, for a rate of conquest of 1618 square miles per day, or .0023 square miles per soldier per day.
    The DuPuy Institute rates the US CEV as somewhere between 4 and 6 to Iraq’s CEV of 1. I assume a mid-range CEV of 5. The force ratio was therefore 3,500,000 to 650,000 or 5.38 to 1.
    In conquering Kuwait, the US lost 292 soldiers (.04%). It lost 31 tanks (1.3%). Iraq lost 50,000 soldiers (7.7%) and 3700 tanks (86%). There were approximately 5,000 civilian casualties.
    Here we see that, despite having a force ratio twice as good as Israel’s in 67, the US only conquered Kuwait at a speed of about 1/7th the speed that the Israeli conquered its territories. But US only suffered per-capita losses of 1/10th the men and 1/35th the tanks. The Iraqis, meanwhile, suffered similar levels of total deaths (7.7%) as the Arab League in ’67 (7.6%).
    Desert Storm is often perceived as a blitzkrieg or maneuver war but it was actually a methodical battle of annihilation in which carefully advancing shock armies followed on air strikes to destroy everything in their path.

    US conquered Iraq, a total of 169,285 square miles.
    US deployed 310,000 troops vs Iraq’s 538,000 troops.
    It took 41 days to conquer Iraq, for a rate of conquest of 4,128 square miles per day, or .013 square miles per soldier per day.
    The DuPuy Institute has not offered a CEV rating for the 2003 war. I assume a CEV of 6. The force ratio was therefore 1,860,000 to 538,000 or 3.46 to 1.
    The US lost 196 soldiers (.06%). Iraq lost 30,000 killed (5.6%). Data on armored vehicle losses isn’t available but we know they were very high for Iraq. There were approximately 7,300 civilian casualties.
    Here we see that the force ratio was 57% better than the force ratio in the Six Day War, but only 64% as good as the force ratio in Desert Storm. The rate of conquest was almost as fast as that in the Six Day War, and much faster than that of the Gulf War. The US losses were 50% higher per-capita than the Gulf War. The Iraqi casualties were lower (5.6%).
    The 2003 invasion of Iraq, with its thunder runs, seems to have been more like a maneuver war with fast movement and somewhat higher casualties.

    1967, winner: 0.3% deaths, 50% tank losses – tank losses 167x deaths; 0.016 square miles per soldier-day
    1967, loser: 7.7% deaths, 46% tank losses – tank losses 6x deaths

    1991, winner: 0.04% deaths, 1.3% tank losses – tank losses 33x deaths; .0023 square miles per soldier-day
    1991, loser: 7.6% death, 86% tank losses – tank losses 11x deaths

    2003, winner: .06% deaths; .013 square miles per soldier-day
    2003, loser: 5.6% deaths

    Russia invaded Ukraine, which is 233,062 square miles.

    Russia has allegedly deployed 234,000 troops vs Ukraine’s 125,000 ground troops. Russia allegedly has 1,200 tanks amassed. According to Global Security, Ukraine has 620 T-64, 100 T-64BM Bulat, 133 T-72s and 5 T-84 Oplots, for a total of 858 tanks. The T-64s and T-72s are vintage Soviet equipment, so only 105 tanks are modern. The Russian tank makeup is unknown.

    What is the force ratio? Sadly the DuPuy Institute does not give us CEV for Ukraine and Russia. If we assume they are equal, the force ratio is 1.872. If we assume the Russians are better than the Ukrainians to the same ratio that Israelis were better than Jordanians, then the force ratio is 2.88. Based on the rate of advance (discussed below), the figure of 2.88 to 1 seems right.

    By my estimates (plotting areas of advance on Google Earth), the Russians have conquered 33,465 square miles of terrain in 6 days. That represents .024 square miles per soldier day. That is 1.43 times faster than the Israel advance during the Six Day War, 10x times faster than the US advance during the Gulf War, and 1.85 times faster than the us advance in 2003.

    So any suggestion that the Russians are moving slow is revealed as absolute nonsense.

    What are the casualties? Ukraine claims to have killed 3,500 soldiers (1.4%). Losing that many men in just a few days would mean the Russians are on track to defeat (7.7% deaths being enough for Arabs to lose in 67 and 91). It seems to me to be a very carefully selected number – low enough to seem plausible, high enough to hint at defeat. But the number is certainly wrong. The US Army, in the first 25 days of Operation Overlord, lost 2,811 killed. It is implausible to believe that Russia has lost forces at 625% of the rate of the losses we incurred storming Omaha Beach and fighting through the bocage. With the entire world watching via satellite and mobile phone, it would be impossible for Russia to disguise losses like that.

    Ukraine claims have destroyed 191 tanks (15.9%). That number of losses is plausible for an aggressive tank attack against a near-peer. The Israelis, after all, suffered higher tank losses in 1967, and the Russians are advancing 50% faster. If we look to history, this would suggest Russian loss of life would be somewhere around 0.1% to 0.5%, or 234 to 1170 dead.
    Russia has said very little about kills, but it claims to have destroyed 314 tanks. That would be 36.5% of Ukraine’s tank force. That is a very plausible figure. Remember that Israeli inflicted 46% tank losses in 1967 by the end of the war.

    If the above holds true, Russia will have captured all of Ukraine in 41 days. The war will be over around the end of March.

    • Red says:

      I’m not convinced NATO can stay out of the war for that long. The COVID insanity has been switched to the war with Russia insanity with even grater intensity.

    • jim says:

      Exec summary of exec summary:

      0.0160 square miles per soldier-day
      winner: 0.3% deaths, 50% tank losses – tank losses 167x deaths;
      loser: 7.7% deaths, 46% tank losses – tank losses 6x deaths

      0.0023 square miles per soldier-day
      winner: 0.04% deaths, 1.3% tank losses – tank losses 33x deaths;
      loser: 7.6% death, 86% tank losses – tank losses 11x deaths

      0.0130 square miles per soldier-day
      winner: .06% deaths;
      loser: 5.6% deaths

      0.0240 square miles per soldier day. That is 1.43 times faster than the Israel advance during the Six Day War, 10x times faster than the US advance during the Gulf War, and 1.85 times faster than the us advance in 2003.

      If the above holds true, Russia will have captured all of Ukraine in 41 days. The war will be over around the end of March.

      I was thinking it would be a bit over twenty days. But forty days sounds more plausible, given that there is a lot of Ukraine. But still a devastating and spectacular victory.

      And they probably don’t want to conquer all of Ukraine. Would probably like to stop at the 1914 border. But ending a war is harder than starting one. Stopping at the border would not be feasible if whoever remains in power beyond the 1914 border wants to continue the war in the hope of eventually pulling in NATO. Would need to behead the current Ukrainian government, and cut a deal with whoever is actually holding power west of the 1914 border. But whoever was in power west of the 1914 border would probably be feeling their oats, being closer to NATO and further from Russia, so might not be inclined to cut a deal either.

      Worst case outcome, Russia has to flatten Western Ukraine to end the war. That would take a while.

      • restitutor_orbis says:

        I need to master the art of Jimian minimalism!

        The biggest takeaway for me from my analysis was realizing how big an area Russia has conquered. It’s a lot of land claimed quickly, equivalent to Canada invading and conquering Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New Hampshire, in 5 days. Or Germany invading and conquering Belgium and Holland in 5 days. (Historically took 18 days.)

    • Korth says:

      Good analysis. However conquest is not linear, it accelerates towards the end as replenishing losses becomes increasingly difficult for the defender and the front collapses. It should take substantially less than 41 days, I agree with Jim’s assessment that it will be over in about half that time.

    • Varna says:

      >ccording to Global Security, Ukraine has 620 T-64, 100 T-64BM Bulat, 133 T-72s and 5 T-84 Oplots, for a total of 858 tanks. The T-64s and T-72s are vintage Soviet equipment, so only 105 tanks are modern. The Russian tank makeup is unknown.

      Russia’s main tanks are T-72 and T-80

      They also have T-90 and Armata, but those apparently are being held back.

      Russians fighting Ukrainians is not unlike Germans fighting Austrians or Frenchmen fighting Belgians. Basically no difference between the warring sides genetically or culturally, with the exception of the differences that have piled up over the last generation.

      • restitutor_orbis says:

        Thanks Varna. That site was a much better overview of Russian tank composition than anything I found in English.

        Have you seen any hard data on what actual tanks the RF has deployed into the war? I have heard that they are older tanks, but no specifics on numbers.

        • Pooch says:

          Classic Russian military doctrine is waves of increasingly better equipped and better trained units.

        • Varna says:

          No data yet on what they’re using now and why, only articles with recommendations what should be used.

    • James says:

      Indeed, claims of Russian route seem to have tapered off today but have been replaced with just a little bit of quiet reporting of Russian successes while avoiding discussion of the ongoing sieges of the largest cities. All of this is consistent with the hypothesis that Russia is succeeding in its endeavor, contrary to the reddit and twitter fringe’s revenge fantasies.

    • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

      The reality of rule by journalist in one picture.

      Some random nobody can spout on some non-sequiturial pseudosanctimonia, and get one of the most valuable men on the planet to sit up and bark in response.

      • Cloudswrest says:

        I’ve been on the waiting list for almost a year for my Starlink unit.

        • jim says:


          Musk is planning to finish his network using Starship, which he expects to be a lot cheaper way of putting lots of stuff in orbit. And starship is taking longer than he had hoped. The FAA is obviously planning to halt it, but with Globohomo beating the war drums, the FAA may get orders from above to get the hell out of the way.

  20. Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

    Some reports of uke af personnel who fled to poland are now receiving ‘donated’ aircraft to fly out from nato bases there.

  21. Pooch says:

    Bitcoin is going bonkers ever since it was announced the Russian Central Bank will be cut off SWIFT. Interesting development.

    • jim says:

      An entirely unsurprising development.

      SWIFT is committing suicide.

      Not predicting its death tomorrow, but lots of people, myself among them, see that the end is in sight.

      The strange thing was the initial fall. I conjecture that there were people in Russia selling bitcoin in order to obtain US dollars in a US bank, which could then be sold for a lot of rubles. It is likely that a whole lot of transactions between Russia and the West are in future going to take place in bitcoin, which is likely lead to a big rise.

      • notglowing says:

        Crypto tends to immediately react negatively to uncertainty in markets, because people are used to it being that way, and because they divest from risky assets when stocks go down.
        It was not too surprising to me that Bitcoin would fall at first and then recover sharply once it’s clear the situation is beneficial to it. After all most short term movements are not really about important fundamentals.

      • Aryaman says:

        If a lot of important transactions they really want to stop take place in Bitcoin, then seems like a good time as any for a blood diamonds attack, and 2021 saw a lot of mining shift to the USA, with a lot of that mined by publicly-traded companies subject to pressure and law.

        Though if that attack happens I am not sure you would see it in the published index prices for a while at least.

        • jim says:

          I don’t want to get out of bitcoin until the last minute, but starting get worried.

          • Aryaman says:

            Maybe they are not smart enough to pull it off, but if they are smart and I recall correctly they may actually need considerably less than 1/3 of hashpower to pull it off. Wonder how much hash power is within the grasp of publicly traded companies and how much more could be brought online quickly.

            But for now I guess they’re just happy making it difficult to do anything with KYC wallets plugged into fiat. Which means it’s also hard for you to do business with someone who is plugged into fiat. If that suffices to quash contraband commerce for long enough then maybe it is safe for now.

          • The Cominator says:

            So what do you recommend, Monero? Piratelink?

            • jim says:

              Pirate chain is vastly superior technologically to Monero, at least in theory.

              Looking into it.

              Last time I checked, Zksnarks were QUITE not ready for prime time.

              In theory they not only make a truly private crypto currency possible, but also solve problem of an ever growing pile of data. In theory, instead of everyone keeping everything, it would be possible to have a crypto currency where people only needed to keep their part of the data. The peers keep the current state and recent transactions, but do not keep past transactions forever to justify current state. You don’t even need each peer to keep the entire current state. They can shard transactions. Implementation of this glorious theory has so far come up a bit short, but it should be doable. We now know in principle how to do it. The details, however are tricky.

          • Pooch says:

            Can Shaniqua really competently conduct a blood diamonds attack? Seems like basic bitcoin mixing can defeat this.

    • Mister Grumpus says:

      Yeah but here comes the double blood diamonds attack, though.

      Bitcoin isn’t just racist now, but also pro-Putin.

  22. ExileStyle says:

    One actual casualty of war: centuries of Swiss neutrality just ended a few hours ago:

    Absolutely foolish and short-sighted. Effectively the end of Swiss sovereign confederate government. This one, if not surprising at this point, still saddens me. The small government rural conservative still buried somewhere deep inside me kept holding onto hope they’d steer clear of all of this as they’ve managed to do since Napoleon. No luck. Adieu Switzerland.

    • Herman says:

      Swiss Sovereignty was never as thing. They were just good at making deals with whoever was in power.

      Since the second world war they are globohomo like every country in Western Europe.

      • Aryaman says:

        Women couldn’t vote in Federal elections until 1972, and in at least some cantons until 1991. And role of direct voting there has restrained government action against the population, to some extent.

        Switzerland is near the bottom. And the Swiss 36 percent to the US 44 percent understates the difference, since in the USA there is a lot of forced private spending considered nominally private reflection of an arms length transaction that is nothing but. Less so there. Monetary policy there is saner than many other places. Consider for example you can get bank notes there worth up to 1000 francs.

        Notice the conspicuous absence of Syrian refugees across Swiss cities.

        They did give in to US pressure on bank secrecy, which is a shame, so things are changing fast. It isn’t reactionary, and things are going to get worse there as they are here and elsewhere, but it isn’t quite right to say it’s just as bad as any other country in Western Europe.

        • clovis says:

          >Women couldn’t vote in Federal elections until 1972, and in at least some cantons until 1991. And role of direct voting there has restrained government action against the population, to some extent.

          This is inconceivable to me. How did they manage to hold out on that for so long?

          • Pooch says:

            Switzerland has always been a place for the elite to hide/launder their money. Bribery goes a long way.

            • ExileStyle says:

              Those are all just IRS and Bernie Sanders communist talking points. It’s not “bribery” to give a bank your money to hold onto in your stable, neutral country. Nor is it “money laundering” because you don’t report your client’s assets directly to the IRS, nor is it Switzerland’s responsibility to determine where non-Swiss people get their money or whether it constitutes money laundering in any of the other 190 countries of the world. Switzerland is one of the least (conventionally) corrupt countries in the world, and there’s virtually no domestic crime, financial or otherwise, there. A symptom of how deeply we’ve internalized the globalist narrative is how easy it is to blame Switzerland for what the rest of the world is doing.

              But that’s all over now anyways. The banking stuff since they got bullied by the US after 2008, and now the very concept of neutrality.

              I’ll keep my eye on Liechtenstein…they still have an actual monarch with actual power, and held out until 1994 (!) on the women’s vote. Further research needed.

              • i says:

                Switzerland seemed to have the best run of Direct Democracy so far.

                Despite the criticism of democracy from the NRx perspective. Switzerland was the best counterpoint in action for a very long time.

                And 1000 year run of the Venetian Republic was also the best counterpoint to the superiority of Monarchies over Republics. So long as it is Aristocratic Republics.

                • jim says:

                  The cycle of history is that Kings create a virtuous ruling elite, the ruling elite creates a Republic, and then gradually ceases to be virtuous, then tyrants, then Kings again.

                  Aristocracy tends to come and go reflecting military technology. Can a small group of well armed well trained aristocrats beat a horde of hastily conscripted peasants? Twenty first century warfare requires a much smarter, better trained and better equipped warrior force (Though all the major powers are still stuck in mid twentieth century warfare, Russia almost as much as America. Tanks, artillery, foot soldiers, aircraft carriers. They are all obsolete.)

                  How does our elite look?

                  Switzerland has a markedly better level of elite virtue, but it looks worse every day.

                • Red says:

                  Turkey seems to be the only nation really moving towards the future of warfare. We might see the Ottoman empire rise again.

                • jim says:

                  The future of warfare requires a network based on directional spread spectrum centimetre wavelength signals with phased array antenna similar to Starlink, but ground to drone, rather than ground to space.

                  Right now, only Musk has that communication technology. Our fighter planes theoretically have it, but it does not actually work.

          • Aryaman says:

            The direct answer to your question is plebiscitary democracy. In 1959, 67 percent of men voted against extending franchise to women. In 1972, 65 percent of men voted in its favor. Switzerland also to this date has the lowest voter turnout rate by quite a bit among rich countries.

            Obviously, under America’s thumb, they were not going to hold out forever, and it was a federal court order in 1991 that gave women franchise in the last canton to hold out.

            But the answer is, giving men a direct say and a direct veto on important issues of the day means it has been decades behind the rest of the West, though that gap is shrinking

            For example, “Same-sex marriage in Switzerland will be legal from 1 July 2022”

    • The Cominator says:

      Once they gave in and let women vote they were fucked.

    • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

      Sad to see. The confederation has managed heretofore to outlive pretty much every other contiguous political order that were once upon a time their peers. And a large part of that was their instinct to fly under paroxysms of hot headed political signaling feedback loops, regardless of how ‘self-evident’ the ‘arc of history’ would be insisted upon at the time.

  23. Severian says:

    So evidence is coming out that a lot of these videos of destroyed Russian vehicles are indeed fake. They are adding the “Z” tactical marks to old footage.

  24. Severian says:

    More early analysis from Kofman. Always worth reading

    • Pooch says:

      I think this guy is a bit too pro-Ukraine but it overall coincides with what a lot of non-GAE shill Russia watchers have been saying so far:

      That essentially Russia overlearned from Afghanistan. They (and many others including Yarvin and many commentators here) were expecting the whole Western apparatus in Ukraine to collapse like a house of cards, barely putting up a fight and that Zelensky would be on the first flight out of town with all his money like his counterpart in Afghanistan. That wasn’t what happened.

      It was a mistake to pull their punches not thinking the Ukrainians military would fight, but not a catastrophic one. It seems they are in the process of correcting that mistake and bringing out the big guns.

      • The Cominator says:

        Like Machiavelli says and the Mongols practiced always totally destroy the 1st town your forces reach with no regard for civilians, then nobody tries to hide behind civilians in the future.

        • Pooch says:

          The Taliban didn’t even have to do that. I don’t know how many they killed but it seemed as soon as the US left, the Afghan army surrendered en masse not even choosing to fight at all, but I think that was a unique situation in that the Taliban essentially had a shadow regime in waiting that already had strong roots from when it was previously in power. The so called “army” had absolutely no loyalty to the US puppet government.

      • Severian says:

        I have said it before but I think it’s strange the Russians would expect a Ukrainian rout.
        These people were willing to die in the Maidan revolution, they literally ran to sniper fire in the streets. They also put up a brave effort in trying to recapture the Donbas.

        Why would Russian command assume they would just collapse?

        • Pooch says:

          My guess is that they thought those willing to die would just be relegated to a minority of radical nationalists (all revolutions are a minority of radicals in the street) and that the Ukrainian regular army would not be willing to fight for a corrupt globohomo regime like in Afghanistan. I thought this too.

          In hindsight, although both globohomo, the regimes in Afghanistan and Ukraine were constructed in differing but important ways.

          • Jehu says:

            This is the reason I believe that the US military can still fight to some extent in the US but not project meaningful power elsewhere.

            But I suspect that the KIA for the Russians when this is all settled will be in the 1000 range—about the same as I estimate that you’d need to conquer Germany. Right now it’s really hard to say much about what’s going on on the ground.

          • James says:

            These are also Slavs vs Sandmen we’re talking about here. Afghans have never throughout history had a real state or a real military. Why in the world would they start having one when yet another foreign power comes by and fucks up the whole region for their own good? Slavs, meanwhile, are just not the same as that — they’ve been slave-soldiers before, and they’ll be slave-soldiers again in all likelihood.

      • notglowing says:

        I cannot reveal much because it could identify me.
        I am temporarily close to the conflict, though not in UA itself, for unrelated reasons.
        There are lots of Ukrainians fleeing and everyone in neighbouring countries helping them however they can with free trips and temporary settlement.
        Ukrainians made a good impression on me, they have become a big portion of fairly small cities here overnight now, and it is a far cry from “refugees” I have seen elsewhere. They are nice and well mannered people. The places here full of them are far from chaotic, with traffic jams and lack of hotel rooms being the worst thing they caused. People who treat their hosts well have my sympathy. The locals here treat them as their neighbour, and the Ukrainians act like it.
        I have talked to some of their elite in exile. I got the impression they really didn’t expect this to happen, especially not so soon, and I also get the impression that treating it like Afghanistan is misjudging it.

        Afghanistan is them taking their own land. This is to most of them a foreign invasion, and from the enemy they are most scared of, Russia. It’s hard to convey how much even based Eastern Europeans hate Russia, to them it is the huge evil empire that enslaved them, forced them into communism and killed their ancestors, made their life miserable.
        They rightfully hate it, and from this perspective I cannot argue. If I had experienced the USSR, I would never want them back for sure.

        Some even see the new Russia exactly that way, with Putin the KGB agent. Which is funny in its own way.
        Putin talking about denazification does not help either.

        I believe a lot of Ukrainians genuinely don’t want them to take over, it doesn’t matter how fake and gay the west is, because regardless of whether UA existed as a sovereign state historically, it does not want Russia to rule it now (except for some parts of it obviously).
        I’m not surprised a number of them want to fight. I don’t think they will go down very easily, though Putin clearly has the upper hand. I would say he is still on track to succeed.
        If you thought USSRv2 was taking over your country, what would you do? I feel bad for them.

        I’m not a fan of Zelensky. However I will give him credit. He didn’t run away. For a globohomo disciple to show some backbone, it is quite remarkable. I wonder if the talks will go anywhere. I think seeing Putin as losing at this point is quite delusional. But it also feels like Putin underestimated them. I did as well, and I also didn’t believe the invasion would happen.

        • Pooch says:

          The ironic thing is Ukraine is the communist country now and Russia is fighting to liberate it from communism. But only a Moldbugian reactionary could understand that.

          Also, I would expect the Ukrainian refugees only to be allowed to stay for a few years in EU countries and then get deported back. Wrong skin color.

        • The Cominator says:

          The polaks and the rest of them need to understand that its Russia or globohomo.

          • Pooch says:

            They also need to understand the Russia of today is not the USSR, there was a regime change. But that’s asking a lot of normies to understand how regime changes work.

            • notglowing says:

              It stems from the dissonance of considering communism bad and being on board with (a lot of) the liberal left program.

              After all, they were liberated from communism by the west, and they had “real” communism, and so this is clearly not real communism. It’s not an illogical way of thinking even if it is fundamentally incorrect, but it’s also a big logical leap to go from this to the correct understanding.

              Westerners who are in favour of communism and hate the west for not being communist are dumb babies who never saw real communism like they did, and they can’t appreciate how good they have it.

              Westerners who hate the west for being communist do not know what communism really is, and they cannot see how good they obviously have it. Or they really are nazis, who they see as their historical enemies as well.

              Reminds me of a Romanian I talked to a while ago. He defended his country’s alliance with national socialists by talking about how they had no choice to try and get rid of the USSR’s influence. And he was quite passionate about how those who after the commie regime fell were revealed as being informants were illegally taken care of by their communities. Justice was done against those who would sell out their neighbours to the state, no police required.

              However, he was obviously quite anti-Putin, and upset about the whole situation. Either he is a nazi, or he is a soviet, depending on who you ask, and both are out to get them.

          • notglowing says:

            I’ve talked to a number of Eastern Europeans online. I’ve also talked to quite a few in person here, but in person you can never be as honest.

            Based on the people I know online, and these people are different groups from different countries but all relatively young and fairly online, they share similar opinions.

            Politically it’s almost the same.

            In this order:
            1. They hate Russia and Russians and being taken over by them is their greatest fear
            2. They hate communism and communists, and are aggressive against anyone online (especially Americans) advocating for it
            3. They are racist and especially hate blacks, call them subhumans
            4. They hate trannies but don’t care much for homos
            5. In everything that does not contradict with 1 to 3 they are always 100% on board with US State Department propaganda and believe in all of it. There is a big condition here of course, since this means they hate BLM and trannies, but also are completely against things like 6/1, and also think the Arbery killers deserved to go to jail. They are after all amerikaners who went too far and acted like they are cops.
            On the other hand, Chauvin being accused of murder is a joke to them. Proof of how dumb America is.

            They hate America and Amerikaners in particular, which is not a separate rule in itself since it’s pretty much the same as what the State Department and Harvard believes. But they ironically conflate them with trannies and other “stupid” American things. Even though they are perfectly aware Trump and Trannies are different factions (some here would argue they aren’t but whatever), it’s all just nonsense these “stupid Americans” are pushing on the world. And so they think “fuck America” for both of them.

            • The Cominator says:

              If they hate Russia more than communism and globohomo they deserve what they get.

              Fuck Chauvin, kangz are right about kwaps.

              • Karl says:

                Sure, but if everyone gets what he deserves, there will be very few whites left, quite possibly too few to maintain civilisation.

            • Drien says:

              This makes azovbattalion a little more coherent I guess.

      • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

        I think one of the more crucial observations is the fact that in 2014 Russia gave the regime in Kiev a bloody nose but didn’t finish the job. This galvanized them into taking reality more seriously, irrespective of their allegiance to globohomo, and they spent that time preparing forces to actually fight.

        The army back then really was a fiction that only existed on paper, and they really would have collapsed like a house of cards if pressed; but that, as they say, was the road not taken.

    • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

      >It is also possible that Russian military planners genuinely wanted to avoid inflicting high levels of destruction given how unpopular this war was going to be at home.

      >In a[n] effort to keep the war hidden from the Russian public, framing this as a Donbas operation, Moscow has completely ceded the information environment to Ukraine, which has galvanized morale and support behind Kyiv. Another miscalculation.

      A ridiculous notion since any perusal of history in general, and that of our incumbent underlords in particular, furnishes no shortage of examples of just how enthusiastically people relish being on the side of a dominator, the endemic rhetoric by the very same against such an idea being both tactical squid ink and a simple projection of their own fears of being dominated, which will not be self-consciously imputed into a notion of ‘i should not support dominating when my faction is the dominator’. People like being the dominator and dislike not being the dominator, you can start with that simple fact.

      • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

        There have occasionally been some folks who wonder at how Russia seems to be almost completely neglecting information warfare in this conflict.

        How could it be, they wonder, that the successors to the vaunted KGB ideological apparatus, that seemed able to make useful idiots out of everyone during the cold war, are letting this one ‘off the hook’, so to speak?

        Thing is, over the course of the bolshevik regimes existence, much of if not most of it’s propaganda efforts were really taken care of by the atlantic empire itself; because they wanted to believe.

        • Red says:

          This is one of those ideas that I’d never even considered but once stated is quite obviously true.

          The Soviets barley bothered to hide their crimes and told obviously lies to hide them. It was the western press and academia that that thought up the clever lies to hide Soviet Crimes.

  25. nuts says:

    You’re an abysmally stupid prophet. You are right about the hand-wavey stuff that anybody could say and many do, and consistently wrong on every single specific thing you happen to touch on. You carefully never revisit any of the specific false claims. Classic mark of a false prophet.

    And the divergence between the facts on the ground and what your ideology dictates must be happening is starting to get wide enough to trigger visible cognitive dissonance. The attempted explanations of Russian outcomes are militarily nonsensical and contrary to the Russian dispositions and initial movements, which much better fit the “Russia intended to win this in 4 days but pratfalled all over the place instead” explanation. The idea that Ukrainian resistance is being driven by terror of globohomo is so farcically ludicrous, it’s like you’ve never even talked to a Ukrainian, let alone spent time in the country and just listened to people talk. And anybody taking the Saker seriously for anything is just lol.

    Putin fucked up. He misjudged his opposition, he misjudged his moment, and he misjudged his methods. Y’all are gonna have to face up to that eventually.

    Let’s check back on day 20 and see how you’re coping, seething, and dilating then.

    • jim says:

      It has been four days. Since when are wars settled in four days? You may conclude Putin fucked up if he is still at it in a year or so and has to start bombarding cities.

      And, with great regularity, I keep mentioning any errors in my prediction, while until now I have never revisited any of my accurate predictions.

      What false claims have I failed to revisit?

      I say, looks like around twenty days or so, a victory so swift, extraordinary, and decisive as to encourage lots of leaders to imitate Putin.

      Somehow, I doubt I will be seeing you around in twenty days.

      > the attempted explanations of Russian outcomes

      Four days into a war, there are unlikely to be any outcomes for anyone to explain.

      The only outcome that needs explaining is that four days into the war, part of the capital is now under Russian control.

      • onyomi says:

        I feel very conflicted about the outcome of this situation because, while I love the idea of a Russia-led Eastern Orthodox empire as a bulwark against globohomo, I hate the idea of Xi Jinping taking over Taiwan, a place much nicer to live than the PRC, albeit suffering a mild case of Rainbow-itis. I also hate him for what he’s done to Hong Kong and the world with the hygiene hysteria and see him as an unfitting Son of Heaven for any sort of pan-Huaxia bulwark against globohomo that could theoretically arise. Thus I don’t want to see him encouraged.

        And of course the ancap in me wants to see more countries, not fewer, but I suppose if the choice is between “absorbed by the NATO rainbow coalition” and “absorbed by the Eastern Orthodox empire” I’ll take the latter.

        • jim says:

          What is wrong with Hong Kong? What has he done to Hong Kong that is bad?

          • notglowing says:

            I don’t think Xi wants Hong Kong to exist as Hong Kong.

          • onyomi says:

            When I moved there five years ago it was a cosmopolitan, capitalist hub where people enjoyed freedom of speech, low taxes, easy access to the rest of Asia, flourishing business and culture scene. Great restaurants.

            When I left a few months ago (at great expense and with massive logistical headaches), countless businesses had shuttered, companies were fleeing, no one had been able to travel in years, tiny children had been kept muzzled for almost two years, gyms and playgrounds and movie theaters shut or severely limited for years, extreme movement tracking and escalating vax pressure/scrutiny, forced testing, forced quarantine, kids’ school schedules massively disrupted by government fiat with no warning, capital flight… it basically felt like a whole outpost of capitalism and British colonialism imploding. Presumably to be replaced by an extension of Shenzhen, I guess.

            As for what’s wrong with Shenzhen, well, like most other major Chinese cities, I guess it’s okay to live in if you’re a Chinese person existing solely within a Chinese universe and no interest in interacting with the outside world and don’t mind escalating social credit-type minute surveillance of all aspects of your life. Oh, and if your government hasn’t decided to deploy all the tools in its considerable human control arsenal to fight a Sisyphean battle against an increasingly contagious respiratory virus.

    • simplyconnected says:

      We’re getting /pol/ tier shills now.

    • Guy says:

      The split on “the right” re: Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is very interesting and I think will be permanent. The people I like to read the most are pretty solidly on Putin’s side or at least don’t care about Ukraine. The people who always seemed not to get it and are still talking about the polls, excited about a “red wave” this Fall, and crediting Jim Jordan with owning the libs are mostly pro Ukraine to the point they want us to send troops. There are some that cross over though. What would lead a right leaning person at this point to cheer on globohomo after Trump, COVID and everything else?

      For the anti-Putin crowd it seems to be denial of reality. They want to go back. American greatness to them was tied up in American global dominance. Because Biden is president during these military defeats, it seems to them an obvious tactic to use against the libs. They fundamentally mis-identify the causes of America’s problems, who America’s enemies are, and they think of America and it’s nominal constitutional government as presiding over the empire rather than being another province in it.

      Nothing is going to bring them to see reality at this point. The propaganda burrowed deep. They’re not necessarily bad people, but they’re blinder to reality than some in Antifa.

      This group also includes basically every”conservative” I know in real life. I try to get them there, and they’ll see it for a moment during a debate or conversation with me. But next thing I know they’re sharing memes about how tough Zelensky is.

    • c4ssidy says:

      Has the saker given out accurate information in the past? who is he and where does he get his knowledge?

      • Mike in Boston says:

        The Saker Andrei Raevsky of Florida, is consistent only in being pro-Kremlin. Like RT, he criticized the West’s clot shots and QR-code cattle tagging, and somehow never mentions that the Russian government did the same thing to its plebes. So I don’t consider him a reliable informant. One Serb takes him to task for being too pro-Muslim at which is worth reading for background although that Serb’s pearl-clutching about Raevsky’s “anti-Semitism” is really a bit much.

      • Red says:

        I’ve always considered him to be Russian propaganda. Propaganda isn’t always all lies and it’s often useful to listen to what the other side is saying.

  26. The Cominator says:

    Based clip on whats really going on from a non globohomo colonel.

    • alf says:

      Lol that follow up with the Karen in damage control mode… Fox is just a mess innit.

      • The Cominator says:

        Didn’t watch, Trey Gowdy is a blowhard and a retard.

        • Pax Imperialis says:

          Watch it so you know why competent colonels don’t make BMLG ranks

          • The Cominator says:

            I watched part of it and I want that time back and I have a headache…

            • Cloudswrest says:

              Watched part of the second half but couldn’t finish it. It was too painful.

              The MSM coverage of the Ukraine issue is like watching bad Marvel Comics dialog. It’s virtually unwatchable except for comedy. It’s like the satirical news coverage in “The Running Man”.

            • Cloudswrest says:

              The colonel’s dialog reminds me of the Clark Gable/Rett Buttler scene early on in Gone With the Wind where he’s real talking to the pro-war Southerners what they’re up against.

          • Pooch says:

            Imagine taking some short haired-dyke journalist’s military expertise over Col. Douglas MacGregor, an officer who has literally lead men into battle on the field (Battle of 73 Easting). Welp, if we all get vaporized in the West it’s hard to argue that it wasn’t just.

      • Pooch says:

        This is the worst I’ve seen it as being glaringly obvious Uniparty. At least during Trump they sort of somewhat concealed their Trump hate. I guess the invasion of Iraq was like that too.

    • simplyconnected says:

      Nice succinct summary.

    • Pooch says:

      Lmao…I wonder if it actually gets to the point where we are really on the brink of nuclear war over some obscure Eastern European country and literally pointing nukes all over the place at each other, some US general, understanding how utterly absurd and ridiculous that is, just coup and take full control. Probably too much to ask.

      • yewotm8 says:

        A quick search of his name reveals he has been based and level-headed for a while. If he had the ability to pull it off, wouldn’t he have been forced out or Patton’ed by now since he hasn’t kept quiet?

        • Pooch says:

          No not him. I’m just saying any general, even a woke one, with any shred of sanity left.

  27. Pax Imperialis says:

    Nick Land on twitter:
    “Partisan excitement aside, the dominant Sino-Russian narrative (Russia has succeeded impressively relative to comparable historical cases), and the dominant Western narrative (Russia has failed dramatically relative to its own expectations) could both be right.”

    He also brings attention to this analysis

    I initially argued that Russia was holding back because they were waging a limited war and that Ukraine was trying to escalate to total war; however, it is very possible that Russian leadership is not holding back because they only expected a limited war but were caught off guard when reality on the ground did not match expectations. Thus it took time to move in additional forces and explains their role of escalation.


    • jim says:

      Stupid analysis. Your first take on it was excellent.

      Reality on the ground seldom matches one’s expectations, but Russia went in with what will be needed if they have to flatten cities. They would rather not flatten cities, but came in with all the necessary prep for doing so. How far they will go to making concessions rather than flattening cities is unknown, probably even Putin is unsure, but making a desert was always on the table.

      Right now they are trying lesser measures, and it is not yet clear if lesser measures will suffice. This is doubtless a disappointment, but not something that blindsided them.

      They have engaged in a number of similar wars, and while they tried to avoid flattening cities, sometimes did so. Current events in the Ukraine are in line with recent Russian military practice.

      • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

        In reality of course ‘dehousing’ has minimal (and possibly negative even) effect on a peer states war footing, except as like an epiphenomena of hitting targets using their own people as human shields. (Internationalist planners in the mid centiry kerfuffle did it simply because they hated their cousins and liked the thought of killing lots of them.)

        • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:


          Simply placing recalcitrant urban centers under siege and starving them out till they accept terms is a perennially effective means of sorting out the problem with a minimum of trouble, for both sides even. But a lot can happen with the turn of the clock, and i wager ‘oy gevalt putler is doing anudda shoah!’ would crank the interventionist sentiment up to eleven.

          • Pax Imperialis says:

            Starving out urban centers takes time which is not affordable if NATO is constantly smuggling weapons into Ukraine. You’ve got to crack the cities.

            • jim says:

              Globohomo is not very good at smuggling.

              Just turn off the water, power, and food supplies, and eventually there will so few people left in the city that Russia can flatten it, should lesser means fail.

              The shutdown of SWIFT has led to panic buying of dollars in Russia. I think panic buying of rubles in America would have been a more rational response, but time will tell what effect the sanctions will have.

              My assessment is that once Russia controls the roads, which they largely do, time is on their side. Once they have control of movement and goods, the cities will fall in their own good time. Just sit tight and let the Ukrainian armed forces come to them.

            • Karl says:

              Smuggling weapons into Ukraine matters only if Ukraine’s forces are lacking weapons and have unarmend men willing to fight. I doubt there are that many men who want to fight the Russian army and simply lack weapons do so.

              Kabul did not fall to the Taliban because the defenders lacked weapons. There was simply a lack of men willing to fight the Taliban.

              • Pax Imperialis says:

                Do not underestimate the number of good men who, in this era of no good causes, fear a meaningless life and crave a good death. They would rather pursue martyrdom than a life of despair. True, there are not enough to turn the tide for Ukraine, but there are enough to cause the Russians a headache and run through hundreds of high tech munitions should they have them.

                There are quite a few outright suicidal people as well if given the opportunity. What are school shootings if not glorified suicides?

              • Pooch says:

                The Russians should be thrilled with free weapons just like the Taliban was thrilled with free weapons. I hear they are building up quite a nice Javelin stockpile.

      • Pax Imperialis says:

        Stupid? The analysis is right to raise major questions about Minister of Defense Shoygu. Having an ethnic minority of a defeated tribal people who isn’t even culturally Russian handle the military is about a bright of an idea as having Lloyd Austin in charge of US Mil. The crux of the argument is that Putin understands special operations but not war, and Shoygu is incompetent which is why they are have more trouble than initially thought.

        Russia did not initially go in with what is needed to flatten cities. They moved large convoys of infantry days 1-2 and only after seeing more resistance and expected started moving mass artillery and tanks in on day 3. Almost all the missile strikes have been for precision attacks on Ukrainian air defense or known concentrations of military. They are too valuable for city leveling.

        • Pax Imperialis says:

          Realizing Shoygu is both racially and culturally Tuvan and religiously Buddhist may have clouded my judgement.

          I might be overreacting to an instinctual distrust for minority leadership based on American experience with it.

          • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

            I don’t think that’s an overreaction; it’s nigh on a universal problem.

          • Neofugue says:

            Your distrust is not unmerited:


          • Varna says:

            Shoygu is “shamanic-Buddhist” which is a bit different. Also, he commissioned that 40K Warhammer military megachurch…

            …with Hitler’s belongings adding some mana…


            I would call his thing, in the functional sense, a “crypto-Mithraism”.

            • Neofugue says:

              The idea of “shamanic-Buddhism” is as absurd as “tengrist-Christianity.” Shamanics are demon worshipers; this is why the Mongols found Islam as a suitable replacement for Tengrism. Tamerlane and his towers of severed heads represent the spiritual descendancy from the old gods to Islam.

              Buddhism is capable of civilization and its morality as well as to a degree its spirituality overlaps with Christianity. Hieromonk Damascene, a close student of Seraphim Rose, wrote Christ the Eternal Tao as a study in comparative religion between Orthodoxy and Far-Eastern systems.

              > I would call his thing, in the functional sense, a “crypto-Mithraism”

              Nuts. Mithraism was one of many competing entryist “hello fellow Christian, we too believe in [copied doctrine here]” Pagan cults attempting to destroy the Early Church. Next time try “crypto-Zoroastrianism” or “crypto-Tengrism,” at least these faiths operated within the borders of the historical Russian Empire.

              • Varna says:

                The content of your post seems pretty solid, but the tone appears to be a reaction to some sort of imaginary opinion. Let’s not do that and leave it to globohomo folk to assign imaginary opinions and then be indignant about them.

                That being said, folk-Christianity and folk-Buddhism are everywhere, and some of the folk-Buddhism around the world is indeed mixed with local shamanic traditions.

                Shoigu’s nickname as a youth was literally Shaitan.
                Уроженец города Чадан, Шойгу, получивший прозвище Шайтан

                Officially, due to dumb daredevil stunts as a kid

                Unofficially because at 10 years old he was already a local witchdoctor’s apprentice

                • Neofugue says:

                  “Crypto-Mithraism” is an obvious thinly veiled payload regarding Christianity, reminiscent of earlier commenters.

                  Shamanism was gutted into a skinsuit after being absorbed into Buddhism as a result of Kublai and his successors.

                • annonous says:

                  I assume, Neofugue, that you regard any understanding of the origins of Christianity that differs from the ecclesiastical interpretation to a “thinly veiled payload”, without investigation, no matter how solid the reasoning and evidence behind them are.

                • Neofugue says:

                  Refuting every non-Christian dissenting opinion on a secular Reactionary blog is not worth my time. What is valuable to the discussion, however, is calling out when commenters attempt to re-frame Christianity in the vein of “true Christianity as Progressivism/Universalism/Paganism/etc.”

                  My connections in the Russian Church go as far as to the point where I know people who were indirectly involved in the New Military Cathedral. The architects for the project applied various stylistic practices in its artistic design; none of it involved incorporating Buddhism or Shamanist ideological symbology.

              • annonous says:

                Nuts. Mithraism was one of many competing entryist “hello fellow Christian, we too believe in [copied doctrine here]” Pagan cults attempting to destroy the Early Church. Next time try “crypto-Zoroastrianism” or “crypto-Tengrism,” at least these faiths operated within the borders of the historical Russian Empire.

                This is just wrong. Mithraism is older than Christianity. It is not true that mystery religions borrowed from Christianity, and we know this because early Christian apologists, when addressing the issue of the manifest similarity between Christianity and the mystery cults did not claim that they did. Instead they said that Satan created these religions before Christ to confuse people.

                “Muh entryism” is a great way to silence facts and intelligent opinions when you cannot respond to them directly.

                • Neofugue says:

                  My issue is not with commenters attacking Christianity, rather ascribing a false payload to the faith in a similar fashion to how Anonymous Fake does with this blog.

                  If you wish to propose Jesus as descended from Horus or some other Reddit-tier Zeitgeist historiography that is your business and feel free to do so as this is not my blog and I am not a paid apologist. Varna’s comment falsely assumes the New Military Cathedral is indicative of a religious syncretism between Christianity and Shoygu’s Buddhism, which needs to be called out.

                  This goes back to earlier discourse with the Hindus. My concern was not them blathering on about Joos rather their payload regarding “Aryan” and “Semitic” Jesus, “Christianity as Aryan Jesus” and “Christianity as ‘Semitic’ subversion” paralleling the Prog payload of “Christ as community organizer” and “Christ as oppressor.”

                • annonous says:

                  Fair enough.

                • jim says:

                  > This is just wrong. Mithraism is older than Christianity.

                  Roman Mithraism is a century younger than Christianity. It harks back to a very old Persian religion, but its rituals, and temples were radically different.

                  Roman Mithraism was a knock off of Christianity dressed in old Persian clothes, the most successful of several such knock offs.

                • Varna says:

                  >Varna’s comment falsely assumes the New Military Cathedral is indicative of a religious syncretism between Christianity and Shoygu’s Buddhism, which needs to be called out.

                  Welp, with the “falsely assumes” and “needs to be called out” out of the bag, where are the cousins like “falsely claims”, “our values”, “deeply problematic”, and “and that’s why that’s OK” so on. Can’t be far behind.

                  However, the implied mystic link with Shoygu’s mind and motivations sounds exciting to say the least. Is this astral link only with the man’s mind, or does it go into other directions as well? If I think of a number can you write it down or something?


                  Anyway, good luck with everything, many successes in life etc.

          • The Cominator says:

            Buddhists are NOT demon worshippers, morality is almost exactly the same as Christianity and buddhists societies are capable of civilization.

            Shamanics may well be demon worshippers.

    • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

      Likewise, i think under estimating your task and fear of ‘going too far’ can both be in play at the same time.

      For example, one of the first and most valuable things you can do to an enemy when you get the chance, is cut their power. Lord knows we could be spared a throttling of the storm of agitprop flooding out of the bowels of Kiev onto the net by turning their outlets off.

      Transformer substations are essential locus points that can knock out an entire network if hit; they are also modular and a lot easier to replace than a power plant itself. You could prepare replacements ahead of time even, and send them in behind the invasion, to minimize turn around time.

      There’s lots of other things like this – broadcast towers, truck parks, fuel depots, et cetera; the sinews of coordinated operations – that were not really hit in any major way in the opening movements of the war, which if they were hit would save the Russians a lot of future headaches in the conflict, helping make for rapider, less costly, and more definitive victory.

      Some have offered a theory that such targets were being avoided in order to prevent ‘unnecessary damage’ or ‘unnecessary antagonism’. As to the later, that’s more or less simply not how humanoids look at things; you’re getting into a fight, antagonism is a given. If you lose you will be hated, if you win you will be hailed. Victory forgives many sins, while defeat allows none.

      As to the former, a counterparties warfighting capacity is in any practical sense the very definition of necessary damage.

      The longer a conflict goes on, the less and less wise such self-imposed limitations become; so often, you find yourself at a loggerheads at some point, and end up having to step your game up in the end anyways; leaving you ultimately with a strictly worse outcome than had you taken matters with full seriousness from the beginning.

      The eventual success of the Russian army is very likely, on the battlefield at least; they have performed so far as salutarily as the ukes have been execrable, and i don’t see any real indication that the globohomo puppet regime could hope to stop them, absent a foolhardy attempt at intervention by outside powers. But that success may well be more or less be in spite of the going strategy, rather than because of it.

      Putin may well have correctly judged that he could win a shooting war in spite of his self-imposed limitations; the implication i am getting at though is that those same self-imposed limitations would still in any case not actually be serving to help any good long term interests either.

      • Pax Imperialis says:

        I have no doubt that Russia will win. I’m just shocked they are being so inefficient about it and trying to figure out why. I expected as you mentioned power to be knocked out and electronic warfare to shut down as much communication as possible. For all the troops sent in on day one, they took little artillery.

        The US military prefers 3 to 1 odds for defeat in detail with fire support and ISR. These are all things Russia is capable of doing but did not, why? Either politics or incompetence is playing a role if not both.

        • jim says:

          > I have no doubt that Russia will win. I’m just shocked they are being so inefficient about it and trying to figure out why.

          The 2003 invasion of Iraq by the US coalition is rightly rated as quick, easy, and entirely one sided victory. Wikipedia calls it a “quick and decisive operation”. It took from March 20 to April 15. That is twenty six days. The way the wind blows so far, Ukraine will take less than twenty days.

          If it takes twenty days, then a quick, easy and entirely one sided victory. If it takes less than twenty days, then an astonishingly quick, easy, and one sided victory revealing the disastrous and total military incapacity of globohomo, and encouraging nations and strong men the world over to try their luck.

          • Pooch says:

            Also worth mentioning is the USM suffered less than 200 KIA in the actual invasion (not occupation). I’m expecting Russia to suffer significantly more than that but then again they are dealing with a deadlier foe who is better equipped (and white).

  28. The Ducking Man says:

    So I was down in reddit yesterday, one post stand out to me saying that US had 11 bio lan research center center similar to what Fauci had in Wuhan. The documents from US embassy seems pretty legit too.

    Now that we are in second horse of apocalypse. Seems pretty obvious that third horse (very rapid hyperinflation) is coming. But the fourth horse may be second coming of china flu only it will be actually dangerous.

    Either way I’m hoping cathedral and it’s chronies are gone for good.

    • jim says:

      Why do military bioresearch in countries that are politically insecure?

      Seems exceeding strange – unless the target is America, and you want to be sure your researchers do not care too much about what happens to Americans.

      • The Ducking Man says:

        See, even you are confused. I am also confused why it has to be ukraine.

        But I have great confidence on sources on reddit member link to. US do have bioresearch labs in Ukraine (spesifically Kiev).

      • Herman says:

        I think there is an easy explanation.

        If someone wants to do blatantly illegal things, it is easier to do them in a very corrupt country.

        The mafia has similar preferences for location.

        At this stage the differences between the mafia and the pharma is up for debate.

        • The Cominator says:

          “If someone wants to do blatantly illegal things, it is easier to do them in a very corrupt country.”

          Like… the United States right now.

          • Herman says:

            These biolabs were planed a long time ago (probably in the 90s or 00s) when the United States was still functional country

            • jim says:

              But the Ukraine was never a functional country. Why put biolabs there?

              • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                Likely for similar reasons the GAE put bases of all kinds everywhere; to bring the area more into it’s orbit, menace a target outside of it, and in case of leaks, well who cares, you wanted those guys dead anyways.

                • Aryaman says:

                  Here is a picture of the countries participating in this biolab network.


                  There are no functional countries participating, only extremely non-functional countries, except the participating extremely non-functional countries make up a very small portion of all non-functional countries, so it can’t even really be about helping the savages contain the outbreak of deadly disease that happens in the ordinary course of business (nothing on the Western hemisphere).

                  More like the Germans don’t want whatever it is you are doing there anywhere near them.

              • Herman says:

                The soviet union had extensive bio weapon programs.

                I think they wanted to employ the soviet experts. That’s why they set up so many bio labs in the former soviet union.

                They also wanted to keep their existence secret and did not want internal processes to leak to the public in the west.

                • Aryaman says:

                  Are there lots of bioengineering experts in Cameroon, Sierra Leone, Kazakhstan, and Afghanistan we don’t know about?

  29. Cloudswrest says:

    Seems the “Snake Island” incident was fake propaganda. The Ukrainian solders surrendered, were given rations and bused somewhere.

    • Anonymous Fake says:


      • jim says:

        Not what is wrong with enemy propaganda

        • ExileStyle says:

          That guy sure is persistent. I like how your interactions with him have become a long-running Batman-Joker-like subplot of the comments section. Are you ever going to cut the cord on him?

        • Anonymous Fake says:

          Ukraine’s president looks like Dukakis in a tank, goofy as the comedian he is. Deliberately terrible propaganda is meant to terrorize people intelligent enough to realize that you don’t even have to try. This is wrong in the sense that lying is wrong, just to show you can get away with it.

    • The Cominator says:

      Peace talks already going on supposedly.

      • i says:

        How the Russians are handling things:

        “The bottom line is this. These are things which the Russians are trying to achieve

        (1) Destroy the Ukie armed forces but kill the absolute minimum number of Ukrainian soldiers. Why? Because these surviving Ukrainian soldiers and officers are the ones who will play the main role in finally cleaning the Ukraine from the Nazi scum.
        (2) Get to the outskirts of as many major Ukrainian cities and gradually begin the steps I outlined above. Convince civilians to flee and convince Ukrainian solders to lay down arms
        (3) Delay any Russian penetration inside the cities until the moment is “just right”.

        Why? Because Russia has ZERO intention of occupying or, even less so, rebuild or police the Ukraine, that’s why. The LDNR is as far as the Russians will go (with only a few possible exceptions).

        The Kremlin decided that the goal of the operation was to 1) disarm and 2) to denazify the Ukraine. As soon as these goals are reached, the Russian want to get the hell out of the Ukraine and back into the LDNR and let the Ukrainians fight their own anti-Nazi civil war. ”

        The Goal is the minimize Ukrainian casualties so that they can be used to mop up the Nazi’s sponsored by Globohomo.

        • Severian says:

          “Destroy the Ukie armed forces but kill the absolute minimum number of Ukrainian soldiers.”

          If that was really the plan it’s sounds ridiculous, you cannot keep relying on the enemy deserting when they have reputedly shown resolve.

          We are now seeing the results of this, Russians are starting to take significant losses, losing valuable equipment, despite territorial gains. Units are rushing down roads, with little support and logistics trains getting ambushed behind them, leaving them stranded.

          If they don’t start fighting battles with their conventional doctrine, they will keep taking serious losses.

          • The Cominator says:

            We don’t know what Russian losses are, the ukes i think have one real picture of a destroyed tank.

            • Pooch says:

              Yeah I’m going to refrain from analyzing any tactical decisions for now. There is just too much propaganda and fog of war going on.

          • jim says:

            > … they have reputedly shown resolve.

            > We are now seeing the results of this, Russians are starting to take significant losses, losing valuable equipment

            > … they will keep taking serious losses.

            If the Russians had these “significant losses”, social media would be full of stuff depicting those losses.

            Shortly after reports came forth of Ukrainians murdering Ukrainians who were disinclined to act as human shields for Ukrainian artillery, it was not that hard to find a video of Ukrainians murdering Ukrainians attempting to escape a besieged city. A driver hurtles through a blockade with his passenger videoing the murder of the people in the car ahead of him. The car ahead had foolishly stopped to argue with the men operating the blockade, and the driver of the car behind patiently stopped to see the outcome of the discussion. On seeing the outcome, hit the gas.

            Why is it so strangely difficult to find a video of these “significant Russian losses” when it is so easy to find video of Ukrainians terrorizing Ukrainians?

            Ukrainian “resolve” is the result of globohomo terror, not soft power. Globohomo has never hesitated to back soft power by hard power, without which it has little value. Notoriously they applied flat out genocide in the Congo against tribes indifferent to soft power.

            To rule, you need both soft power and hard power. When soft power fails, you use people who subscribe to your soft power to kill people who do not. Without soft power, your men with guns are likely to kill you. Without hard power, your soft power will collapse before the child who cries out that the emperor has no clothes.

            • The Cominator says:

              You’re telling me that the jogger of “Kyiv” hasn’t burglarized 6 million Russian supply depots, gtfo with your Russian disinformation the jogger of “Kyiv” is totally real.

            • Pooch says:

              There are some videos and pictures of burned out Russian vehicles I saw today. More than the last prior few days, but it’s still completely unknown the casualties so I won’t speculate.

              • Severian says:

                Russian MoD has come out today saying 300 KIA. About what you’d assume from the video evidence I guess.
                I’m assuming that will climb with today’s battle west of Kiev.

                • Pooch says:

                  The big unknown is the Ukrainian losses. Obviously they aren’t going to report their own losses honestly and the Russians are keeping quiet. If they are trading 10-1 that’s one thing but closer to 2-1 is a whole other story.

                • The Cominator says:

                  Obviously Uke losses are 10-1 to 30-1.

                • jim says:

                  Ukrainian armed forces are about 250 000. Should collapse after about twenty thousand casualties. Assuming a ten to one ratio, that would still be a considerable number of Russian casualties.

                • Pooch says:

                  Why do you say obviously? Fat and gay Gen Milley predicted 2.5-1 KIA to take Kiev which is obviously highly optimistic for GAE. I would say if they are at 10-1 they are absolutely dominating and handing GAE its ass on a platter.

                • jim says:

                  The coalition was absolutely dominating in the Iraq war, and it nonetheless advanced considerably more slowly than the Russians have.

                  So, looks like the Russians are absolutely dominating.

                • Pooch says:

                  10-1 and 20-1 is more along the lines of British Turkey shooting Zulu spear chuckers. An absolute legendary thrashing.

                • clovis says:

                  From now on General Milley should be known as “Fat and Gay General Milley”

                • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                  more like gayneral faglley lmao gottem

              • Drien says:

                How many of those are repurposed photos from years ago, or from entirely different countries , etc

            • Severian says:

              There has been ample video of destroyed and captured Russian equipment. Enough to merit assuming they have taken unjustifiable losses.

              • jim says:

                There have?

                • Severian says:

                  Sure, Rob Lee usually a good aggregator.


                • Pax Imperialis says:

                  Hard to know what is going on. Much of the known Russian equipment filmed in the convoys day 1-2 is absolutely ancient. Most of the supposedly lost Russian equipment also appears to have been abandoned with little or no damage.

                  Very possible Russia sent in large amounts of it’s Soviet era trash and it broke down or had other logistics issues.

                  Day 3 saw more modern systems being moved in with significantly bigger guns.

                • James says:

                  It’s a fairly large scale conflict between nation-states fielding hundreds of thousands of troops. There are going to be significant losses on both sides. Without actual statistical data from both sides, it’s impossible to tell, and truth being the first casualty of war means we are unlikely to know until it’s over.

                  “Plenty of smoking Russian military equipment” means nothing if the Russians are actually achieving their objectives of achieving strategic control. So far, it seems to be the case. They keep gaining territory, isolating cities, etc. Reports of decreased artillery shelling in cities means those cities are considered secured, not that the Russians have been deterred.

                  I would also point out that the US military was making fun of the Russians when they brought their tugboat aircraft carrier to the middle east. They were not laughing 6 months later.

              • Varna says:

                The thing with generic military equipment, is that it’s identical on both sides, inherited from the USSR.

                Back in 2014 the western media kept showing “columns of Russian tanks” with the “proof” of them being Russian being intercepted talk in Russian and the type of tanks. Without ever mentioning that Ukrainians have the same tanks and also speak Russian.

                Not to say the Russians today aren’t taking losses — with them trying to be 50 times more humane, at least for now, than America in Iraq, it’s impossible for them to not take losses.

                I would say it’s the following:
                1) Main objective is allow Lugansk and Donetsk republics to take over the whole Lugansk and Donetsk regions (as opposed to holding a third), + destruction of Ukrainian and Western military infrastructure, including US bio labs.
                2) If the going proves too easy, plan B kicks in, to create a land bridge from Eastern Ukraine to the Crimea.
                3) If the going continues being easy, extend the land bridge across the coast all the way to Moldova, reaching the Transnistria republic.
                4) If the going continues being easy, take the whole eastern half of the Ukraine, leaving a rump western Ukraine state with a capital of Lviv.

                For now it looks like the objectives achieved will be between 1 and 2, with the rest being a real-time military exercise of how limited war happens on European territory in 2022.

                On the one hand it’s bad PR to send conscripts to do this instead of pros, on the other hand this is Russia, so word is they got the conscripts to sign off they want to be pros, bumped them up to pros instantly, and shipped them off. That’s them getting captured or pulverized.

              • jim says:

                That is quite significant losses, but we don’t actually know, because lots of fakery has also been visually confirmed.

                What we do know is that the Russians are in mortar range of every location from which the political leadership governs Kiev. Probably in mortar range of all of Kiev.

                • James says:

                  These do not seem like large numbers to me based on the amount of equipment fielded by Russia. Russia has, per global firepower, 30,000 armored vehicles, 12,400 tanks, and 14,000 artillery (both self-propelled and towed). These represent tiny equipment losses and similarly do not in any way indicate who has strategic control. A few hundred damaged/destroyed/abandoned vehicles are pretty irrelevant.

                  Russia’s fronts are still advancing into strategically relevant areas. It took America, Poland, the UK, and Australia all together a little over a month to capture Baghdad. Russia is at the edges of Kiev in less than a week. Everything right now is fog of war and (dis)information, but there is nothing solid indicating how the war is going. Speculation based on photos of military equipment on the side of the road is nothing more than a grim pastime – not that there’s anything wrong with that. It just doesn’t mean much.

                • Kunning Drueger says:

                  Take it with flake salt, but according to RWA, RUS MoD has stated that they are specifically not using mortars, and to interpret all mortar attacks as UKR false flags.

                  Couldn’t find the post, but here is a thread that discusses the restraint being employed by RUS.


                • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

                  >There wouldn’t have been any civilian deaths if Russia hadn’t needlessly invaded. What a bizarre fantasy you live in.

                  This is the rhetorical conclusion to using ‘we are invading for the benefit of who we are invading’ as a talking point. Like, it’s not *necessarily* gay – Carthage and Rome both wish to rule, but only one demands your human sacrifice – but it’s also a lot easier to turn gay than anything else.

                  You can do it without saying that is the reason you are doing it; you can do it, while saying that the reason you are invading is for yourself first and foremost; and generally speaking it tends to work out better that way, anyways.

        • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

          If this is true, then as wondered in the last forum, ‘Is the very Art of Modern War converged?’, the answer would be yes.

          To achieve victory in war you must have peace; to have peace you must have order; to have order you must have rulership.

          The declination of rulership is ultimately the declination of victory; and thus, one way or another, an eventual disgrace of defeat is structurally preordained, inherent, and inevitable; a principle readily observable at work in any of the GAEs military adventures within the last half century.

          • Kunning Drueger says:

            Whoever figures out that they can run the table with Throne, Alter, Freehold + Victory First Warfare will be the next hegemon. I’m sticking with my preposterous prediction that it will be a union of -stans, but my runner-up is a union of Slavs.

    • Aidan says:

      The important part of that article is where he lays out the Russian tactical and strategic means of taking a defended city without flattening it, as practiced in both Georgia and the Chechen wars. This lines up with what is actually happening.

      Western media is saying that the Russian offensive has stalled at certain major cities, but Saker says they control areas far beyond those cities and simply surrounded them, probably hoping for a regime change before they are required to move in and take them.

      (don’t forget to upgrade to https when you post a link to a blog that isn’t running it by default)

  30. Pax Imperialis says:

    Nothing is sacred to these people

  31. Red says:

    Cernovich makes an interesting point here:

    Putin sent young conscripts and his worst equipment to Ukraine. No shock and awe.

    He doesn’t accomplish anything other than get sanctioned and enrage the oligarchs.

    Now he’s talking nukes.

    Does this feel more like a real military action or a script we aren’t privy to?

    • Yul Bornhold says:

      If Putin is in globohomo cabal, brutal blackpill, but this is not decisive evidence in that direction.

      The other explanation for these points is that Putin thinks he can take Ukraine with old equipment and young conscripts. He doesn’t want to reveal his power level. Typical maskirova. Also, for long term leader, wise to give young conscripts battle experience. One day these men will be colonels.

      • Herman says:

        It is also possible that Putin wants feedback how well the conscripts perform and if the old equipment is still adequate.

        And since logistics are easy for Russia, if the conscripts and the old hardware struggle, you can always bring in reinforcements is a timely manner.

        I don’t see anything fundamentally wrong with this approach.

      • Red says:

        >If Putin is in globohomo cabal, brutal blackpill, but this is not decisive evidence in that direction.

        LOL, no Putin’s not globohomo. No one building those beautiful Cathedrals could be. I was wondering more along the lines that he was reserving his best forces for if NATO gets involved or even trying to sucker NATO into an attack. The Russians are using more more massed artillery fire now with pretty spectacular results something they didn’t do at the start, which I thought was a mistake.

    • jim says:

      Cernovich is enemy propaganda. Another shill. “Hail fellow reactionary”

      Like anonymous fake, he starts by saying true things, that sound like references to truths that progressives are not permitted to say, but subtly fall short of saying what cannot be said, and then, there follows the payload, a lie, or, far more often, a statement that presupposes that we all know and agree that the absurd lie is unquestionable and obvious truth.

      • The Cominator says:

        The idea that Putin is part of some evil script is not likely but its not impossible, did join Klaus Schwab’s club (but of course possibly to spy) did not entirely deny the Covid demon.

        Likely no, but possible.

        • Skippy says:

          If he is, there will be a nuclear war soon.

        • Neofugue says:

          One’s involvement with our Western Elite is not entirely indicative of his adherence to globohomo. If anyone here knew my real life public profile he would conclude I am most certainly in bed with our enemies.

          • ExileStyle says:

            Exactly. I went to the same schools as these people and have spent much of my career in or near these NGO/university circles, and if anything it only accelerated my redpilling. (Part of why I am skeptical of this Schwab/WEF thing btw. These people, especially German MBA types, are just not that impressive. The problem is the “ideas” i.e. demons they serve.)

            If you’re a halfway intelligent person with ambition from an upper middle class background, the GAE para-/meta-/homo-government offers prestige and money.

            Then if you’re a very intelligent person with insane ambition like Putin you play every game you’re invited to, and usually win with ease.

            I don’t think he’s a “spy” for anything, just knows how to play the power game (obviously).

            Of course it’s possible he’s being outplayed as his enemies are many and strong, but I doubt he’s following a script. Scripts need dialogue, and all we are hearing is Ukraine/GAE propaganda and almost no counter-propaganda, which suggests to me he didn’t even bother as he knew it was a battle he couldn’t win.

        • alf says:

          Sounds to me like a ‘Bush did 9/11’ level conspiracy x10000. In other words, a honeypot meme trap by shills.

          • Skippy says:

            It’s interesting how no one seems to believe that Bush did 9/11 by persuading some Muslim Arab guys to hijack some planes and fly them into the WTC.

            • jim says:

              Quite possibly that is what happened though (given the grotesque incompetence and incapacity of the State Department and the CIA at penetrating networks that have faith in old type Islam) unlikely. If they could have done it, might well have done it. I doubt their capability, not their evil and malice.

              But anyone voicing that theory is drawing attention to the fact that the CIA and the FBI turned a blind eye to the terrorists before the event, and after the event, the FBI and Mueller attempted to cover for them. Thus, anyone voicing that theory is likely to be cancelled, deplatformed, and demonetized.

      • Octavian says:

        > Cernovich is enemy propaganda. Another shill. “Hail fellow reactionary”

        ^ This.

      • Red says:

        That does match Cernovich pretty well with his strange reversals. Anyone keeping their blue checkmark is probably working for them in some way.

        My apologies on this post, I didn’t see how it would be read by others.

        The interesting part wasn’t the idea that idea that Russia is part of a conspiracy with Globohomo(which is laughable), but the possibility that Russia’s was holding back for other reasons. The ones that came to mind for me was baiting NATO into war or Putin at least keeping his best back in case NATO gets involved.

  32. alf says:

    Talk of Putin threatening nukes.

    I am a bit confused since I don’t speak Russian and the translation is ‘Army deterrent forces’. Media makes it out to be nuclear posturing. True?

    And if true, how smart? Putin seems to be pretty good at calling bluffs. Threatening nukes seems a rather dangerous bluff.

  33. I have to miss two weeks of church because I was “exposed” to the “virus” and remain unvaccinated. And I thought to myself — how ironic! — unvaccinated purebloods are the new lepers, and not permitted in God’s house.

    • Drien says:

      What sort of church? I have been attending a mennonite derived church and everyone just gets sick at the same time. No masks, lots of handshakes, no vaxes. I got covid at least twice, the third time felt slightly different perhaps the flu. I dont think any of the numerous old people have died of it.

    • clovis says:

      You could just go and not tell anyone. I’m pretty sure half my church had Omicron a month ago, but everyone said, “It’s just a cold” and didn’t get tested. I’d say 75 percent or so of the church is vaxxed though

  34. BANE says:

    I’ve been following this blog since around 2019 if i recall correctly, but I’ve started paying more attention in 2020 when i shed the last of my normality bias due to covid becoming the newest offshoot of globohomo. I think your predictions since then have been pretty on point, at least big picture stuff.

    I’m reasonably certain that vaxx mandates, either for covid or rebranded covid are coming back in the fall/winter ( The russia/ukraine war is just a momentary reprieve, once it blows over globohomo will manufacture another hysteria to sell to the public – note how aggressively normies are virtue signaling support for ukraine, the vladolf putler comparison…

    In case the war causes gas/oil shortages, that seems like a neat opening for globohomo to start shilling green energy and sanctioning private transportation, all in the name of climate chang.

    I expect joe bidumb to be replaced by kamala by early 2023, perhaps on Jan 6 in order to give the replacement some more anti-racist anti-facist significance.

    • clovis says:

      You have to assume that vax mandates and other covid measures can be brought out again whenever they feel like it, in the same way that BLM riots and antifa seem to recur at election cycles, and then disappear for a couple of years. Right now antifa seems to be gone, except maybe in Portland. Maybe it’s just the media only covers it during election cycles. Right now we are hearing about how BLM seems to have embezzled millions from donors, including big corporations. But there is no reason to suppose they won’t reappear at midterms or in 2024. And until there is some sort of punishment and public admission that Covid wasn’t what they said it would be, there’s no reason to think they won’t try to reimpose vaxx mandates and lock everyone down again.

  35. Varna says:

    I had not fully realized there are people who come over for “predictions” until this post. Weird:)

  36. I understand the present sentiment about Trump, but I truly believed that he had a spiritual energy that truly resonated with the American white middle and working class and also made the Cathedral and their lapdogs froth foam at the mouth. Seeing libtards foaming at the mouth in helpless rage is morally and spiritually uplifting in rage and he delivered that dish regularly during his Presidency. He also energized the so-called Alt-Right for a while, and I think most of the commenters here also felt that energy conveyed by him, though maybe some were skeptical of his ability to become Caesar. Even the Hindu Right in India cheered the Modi-Trump axis, which had great potential.

    The Trump-Modi era, though short, truly felt like an energized and genuine partnership between the countries, and not one controlled by the diktat of the Globohomo, but unfortunately Trump succumbed to normality bias. Maybe also he lacked the sense of historical purpose in not recognizing his own unique position and that the System itself has to be broken in order to bring about change as the System itself is evil. Many modern leaders fall into the trap of “working within the System” and this includes India’s own Modi as well. On the point of physical courage, I don’t think he would have lacked in that respect, but from what we can see, looks like he neither had wise Brahmin advisors, nor unconditionally loyal Kshatriyas at the top level to become Caesar.

    • ExileStyle says:

      > Let’s not forget either how he took a sledgehammer to the Overton window. Curtis Yarvin was on Tucker Carlson for God’s sake. Zoom back into your 2014 mind and imagine knowing Mencius Moldbug was going to be read by and interviewed by the most viewed and influential political personality in the United States. Wild. Trump, personally, played a large part in that.

      Trump could have been Caesar if he wanted, or at least ignited civil war; history is made of moments of opportunity and men who are prepared to take those opportunities and he tripped. Trump was not prepared because he still believed in 1950s America, and like a 1950s American was a sucker for his daughter’s husband’s opinions on the golf course.

      And yes, he also lacked enough good people around him, although there were some. I do believe Jim’s analysis was right in his analysis at the time; the guy he picked, like virtually everyone else picked, stumbled big time. If anything this accelerated everything.

      I never came here for Jim’s specific timeline…I had my own hunch we had no longer than early to mid 21st century and that was enough for me. I’m also not a moron and taking every damn thing everyone writes literally. Just trying to flesh out my mental model of the world, and maybe contribute to a conversation about it. What does a decade or so on either side really matter when we’re thinking historically?

      That said, 2026 remains a strong predictive number, and the course of events is only confirming it or something like it.

      • Gedeon says:

        Tucker is a bow tied faggot and signed off on N3 immediately.

        Trump is and always was a populist and it was everyone normal projecting of what we wanted on to him because he had the rhetorical skills and panache to embarrass the left’s woman. Truth be told, she was easy pickings to anyone with the sack or lack of restraint to call a spade a spade.

        Trump still invited his passionate constituents to the DC to become political props of the left. Trump continues to bang the gong for the vaccines. Trump is toxic garbage because he didn’t do the needful when it was absolutely clear that everything that could be wrong with the republic was wrong.

        Trump gets no second chance.

        • clovis says:

          It’s self-indulgent to shit on Trump after he failed to cross the Rubicon. It would have taken a very rare man indeed to have done so. He remains the only political figure in recent memory to have meaningfully challenged the political establishment or the cathedral or whatever you call it. If he runs in 2024 and doesn’t end up in prison, I will vote for him even though I doubt he will be able to do what he couldn’t do the first time. He doesn’t appear to have learned the lessons. Nevertheless he remains the only political figure in America who has the capacity to confront the regime, even if he probably won’t do it. Apart from him there is no one to vote for, and nobody presenting even a plan of how we might avoid the leftist singularity.

          • Wulfgar Thundercock III says:

            Can you imagine what a shitshow another Trump run would be? The left would go ballistic trying to stop it. Given how Biden has killed the empire after just a year, Trump coming back would probably just resuscitate the corpse and prolong the suffering. Best outcome is probably a massively popular Trump returning for one last hurrah, the people vote for him to get away from the insanity and chaos of the Biden economy, and then even more obvious fraud steals the election. Then you have a Washington-Harvard regime with no military, no legitimacy, and no support. Party time.

            • clovis says:

              I mean, you’re right. If they let him get elected they would probably drop the mask entirely. They won’t, of course. They’re already trying to prosecute him. If he manages to win the nomination they will of course steal it from him. But yeah, him running may provoke them to do something stupid. Maybe in the land where dreams come true it provokes Trump or others to realize there is no way out apart from war with our enemies.

  37. Opioidus says:

    What is the point of creating an alternate universe on social media in which Ukraine is winning the war? It seems that the western mind is no longer capable of internalizing harsh truths at all, so it looks for comforting lies in a stressful situation like this. This looks like the most efficient military operation since the second world war, and yet reddit wants to pretend the Russians are losing. Really weird stuff.

    • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

      > What is the point of creating an alternate universe on social media in which Ukraine is winning the war?

      What’s the point of the scorpion stinging the frog, when it’s the only thing keeping it afloat in the river?

      Such is it’s nature.

    • Anonymous Fake says:

      Nations that celebrate sodomy in public in front of children ought to surrender within days to the Russian army. This is an embarrassment and a severe loss of credibility for the right.

      I don’t know if any good has come of it except to expose all elite Republicans as antichrist frauds, if the aborted tainted death vaccine weren’t enough evidence of that. There are no RINO’s. It’s all of them.

      [*payload deleted*]

      • clovis says:

        Interesting, Jim. If he is a shill, like you say, they have gotten almost passable.

        • jim says:

          I don’t find him passable. I keep noticing payload, which angers and distracts me, and requires too much thought and energy to analyze, derailing my train of thought.

          • annonous says:

            Does it require too much thought and energy to analyze because it’s a payload, or do you call it a payload because it requires too much thought and energy to analyze.

            • clovis says:

              yeah i’m interested in knowing what the payloads are

            • jim says:

              I don’t want to analyze it. There are gigabytes of this crap being churned out by the Cathedral’s shills, but it enrages me and I cannot help but be distracted by analyzing how the payload is being carried and what its intended purpose is.

              It is not that hard to analyze, its is targeted at people as stupid as our enemy imagines us to be, but there is just far too much of this crap.

            • Neofugue says:

              This week a part of me snapped after reading a purple-pill shill “contextualization” of Joshua and other “problematic” scripture passages. Sometimes it is better to avoid spending energy on wicked men and focus one’s efforts elsewhere. It is impressive that our host has the mental fortitude to deal with shills on a continual basis as it is.

              Nothing the above shill said makes any sense; he is misusing our language and playing the “hail fellow Reactionary” game to make us look idiotic and insane. Whosoever finds his payload passable is not tall enough for the ride and needs to lurk moar.

              However, for the sake of education:

              > aborted tainted death vaccine

              What person here refers to the jab as an “aborted tainted death vaccine?” It is a Leftist caricature of how we think and a misuse of our language. Also notice how the shill declares the invasion of Ukraine an embarrassment for the Right instead of a disaster for globohomo.

    • Pooch says:

      My theory is that it’s all mostly coming from the Ukrainian gov’t that US media blindly repeats, in order to make NATO think they are winning and just need some air support to put them “over the top”.

      • Mister Grumpus says:

        “in order to make NATO think they are winning and just need some air support to put them ‘over the top’.”

        Alchemical color revolution. “Russia is losing, they are losing, drop the nukes, they have lost.”

    • Mister Grumpus says:

      “What is the point of creating an alternate universe on social media in which Ukraine is winning the war?”

      So that the Ukrainians look like wow so brave valiant superheroes, deserving of support.

      So that when glowies start gassing civilians on camera and saying it’s those mean frustrated Russians doing it, normies will buy it and demand we do even worse stuff to them.

      • Pooch says:

        Yep. Strong horse, weak horse.

        • Mister Grumpus says:

          “Yep. Strong horse, weak horse.”

          This is some Jedi black arts alchemical shit here.

          Jim’s alluded to it before. There is a “weak horse” way to win, and a “strong horse” way to lose.

          Or rather a “weak horse looking” way to win, and a “strong horse looking” way to lose. Because we’re primates, obviously.

          Braveheart and Che Guevara lose in their popular depictions, but in a strong horse looking way.

          Likewise I presume the Ukrainians are losing, but being made to lose in a strong horse looking way. Grandpas posing with water balloons they’ll obviously never throw, and school teachers with AK47s they’ll obviously never shoot.


          Meanwhile, I presume the Russians are winning, but are being made to win in a weak horse looking way, (false flag) poison gassing every orphanage and nursing home on their way to Kiev.

          Or take the Beast Raban Harkonen. Seriously. He wins and stomps ass, but in a weak horse fashion. He gets tricked. He gets mad. He yells and screams. He has no bitches.


          “Ukraine’s president has become an unlikely sex symbol across the world after standing up to Vladimir Putin against the odds.”

          –The Daily Mail today

          Are there people in the media who consciously and objectively understand this stuff as their professional specialty, and plan and discuss it with each other in their regular indoor voices, or are they all just running on reptilian instinct?

          • jim says:

            > Are there people in the media who consciously and objectively understand this stuff as their professional specialty, and plan and discuss it with each other in their regular indoor voices, or are they all just running on reptilian instinct?

            We have leaks, and we have spies. We know what they are doing. It is centrally coordinated and centrally planned by people who consciously know what they are doing. If the left could meme, we would be in big trouble.

            • Anon says:

              If the left could meme, we would be in big trouble.

              What would they be doing if they actually could meme?

      • Red says:

        It’s a very real positivity they’ll drag us into war with Russia.

  38. Opioidus says:

    You have been wrong about everything and still insist on making these silly predictions and still end up being wrong but your audience obviously doesn’t care and neither do I. I like the confidence with which you’re wrong every single time.

  39. alf says:

    Am I a good prophet, or a damned good prophet?

    Haha, listen, I’m not trying to butter you up, but you are and always have been a damned good prophet, with the rare quality to be correct in an insightful way even when you’re wrong. And in the rare cases you were wrong, you’ve always admitted so square and fair.

    And let’s be real — as much as I enjoy the Yarvin versus Jim competition some make this out to be, the match is long over. Yarvin ran out of interesting things to say a while ago.

    • someDude says:

      And I noticed that when Jim is wrong, he is usually wrong on long odds, like the Trump Auto-coup. As in a really out there mathematically speaking. He gets 50-50 predictions right (Trump 2016, post August), almost all the time. The most fantastic prediction was Trump 2015 when almost no one gave him a chance.

  40. Anonymous Fake says:

    “The courtship dance may not be realistically depicted.”

    This is the strangest Cathedral overlap with Christian culture. [*usual payload deleted*]

    • jim says:

      It has precisely zero overlap with Christian culture. It is one important part of the attack on Christianity.

      • Anonymous Fake says:

        Christian culture doesn’t exist in Christian schools, then, since dating was aggressively suppressed but no one cared if you wanted to get laid with AOL/Myspace sluts in your spare time. I suspect the greatest concern was to avoid lawsuits, not morality, but one doesn’t think like this when young.

        • clovis says:

          > dating was aggressively suppressed but no one cared if you wanted to get laid with AOL/Myspace sluts in your spare time

          That’s completely opposite any Christian school I’ve ever experienced or heard of.

          • jim says:

            Anonymous fake claims conservative upbringing, but I am pretty sure he has never had in real life contact with Christians, conservatives, republicans, a father, or an intact family in his life. It is obvious that they are all completely alien and entirely unfamiliar to him and to those who write his scripts.

            One thing I do believe is that he has a worthless and extremely expensive law degree.

            • clovis says:

              Do you really think it is feds or something like that trying to infiltrate? Or is it just that it is in the nature of demons to infiltrate?

              • Wulfgar Thundercock III says:


                • clovis says:

                  i never have understood why feds would want/need to infiltrate Jim’s blog or 4chan or what have you

                • Pooch says:

                  To drown out the actual discourse here. Anything that isn’t strictly opposed to entryists eventually gets destroyed.

                • Wulfgar Thundercock III says:

                  Why would you want to infiltrate an area that has incisive and intelligent analysis, a strong community, and an ideological contender that is superior to your own? To keep an eye on the threat and suppress it. 4chan, not having a sovereign, got drowned out by noise. Jim’s blog has a sovereign, so we get to speak and shills do not.

                • The Cominator says:

                  I’m beginning to view Polaks on 4chan the way i used to view leafs, goddamn they unironically hate Russia more than the fact that their kids will be trannies if Russia loses.

            • The Cominator says:

              American women’s religious sentiments has zero effect on their sexual behavior.

              50s dating is dead because nowadays women flake on dates with guys they haven’t fucked yet 80-90% of the time… its a shame actually as i rather like going dancing.

              • clovis says:

                >American women’s religious sentiments has zero effect on their sexual behavior.

                I don’t think it’s just American women. Women are too weak- willed to be chaste unless there is more to be gained culturally from chastity than from whoredom.

                • i says:

                  Being exclusively enthusiastically sexual with their own Husbands is also Chastity.

                • clovis says:

                  >Being exclusively enthusiastically sexual with their own Husbands is also Chastity.

                  Of course.

            • Anonymous Fake says:

              I had a stern upbringing and I was respectful towards academia as an authority. I’m justifiably envious of dope abusing dropouts becoming rich plumbers and electricians, etc, the former Marxist leaning proletariat classes. I haven’t been compensated fairly for my own work in anything, not even my own profession (which isn’t directly law anyway).

              Christian schools look up to Harvard just as much as anywhere else, or at least they did. Christian universities were seen as trash even in Christian K-12 schools, and this is true everywhere.

              The blue pill dominated dating ideology, but dating culture de facto didn’t exist unless you left the reservation and looked outside Christian communities to find a partner. Dating within a Christian school was asking for expulsion, lawsuits, an inability to secure rich paying employment based on school performance the way we saw things back then, etc. And then there’s that adultery thing…

              I was there. Man.

              • jim says:

                Your depictions of Christians and conservatives come from within the left wing bubble. I fit hard to believe you have ever been in contact with Christians, conservatives, or even intact bilogical families. A “strict” upbringing requires a father and an intact family.

                The work you did was worthless and deserves no reward – a law degree being priestly training for an evil priesthood that wants to steal everyone’s children, but can only train them in priesting, with the result that we have a grotesque oversupply of priests.

                No one deserves value for work. Work has no value. People deserve value for value they create. You have created no value.

                • Anonymous Fake says:

                  [*payload deleted*]
                  For what it’s worth I did grow up in a dense blue dot, just because it’s a place you want to be instead of a place you have to drive through to get to where you want to be. Conservatives who grew up in this kind of environment have seen enough of everything to know how the world should work, even if we don’t know how it actually does (not).

                • jim says:

                  > I did grow up in a dense blue dot

                  And yet, you keep lecturing us on the culture, economic activities, preferences, and beliefs of people outside your bubble, things of which your incomprehension is astounding.

                  It is not that you do not comprehend the belief system of the Dark Enlightenment, you do not comprehend the belief system of regular normal white American males either.

              • Kunning Drueger says:

                As someone who actually experienced Christian family and education, AF’s post reads like someone who got a briefing on what to say. I can’t comment on current curricula or culture, but in my education period, Harvard was seen as a bastion of lies, and the miniscule number of Christian universities were held in very high regard. As well, dating was something addressed often. It was referred to, alternatively, as courting, and it was managed by parents and pastor. Notice too how he doesn’t deny what Jim accused. I bet his single mom was quite “stern” lol. Envy is never justifiable, it is always a sin, and I say that as someone struggling with it mightily these days.

                As a repeated and explicit skeptic about the presence of actual Fed entryists, the smoking gun is the incessant posting. No normal poster would continue after so many censored posts. This dude is motivated to be here, maybe for economics, maybe for ideology. Whatever the motivation, he is a shill.

              • someDude says:

                Not been fairly compensated for your work? Why don’t you work for yourself and compensate yourself fairly?

                Justifiably envious of dope abusing dropouts becoming rich plumbers and electricians? You mean burning with envy at productive people getting rich because they have some habits you disapprove of?

                Go ask your professors at school, where you did so well, to secure well paying employment for you because you did so well. Go whine at their door. Go picket their lawns.

  41. Mike in Boston says:

    I give Jim a great deal of credit not only for making specific predictions but for explaining the reasoning behind those predictions. Jim’s explanations help his readers develop a mental model of what historical forces are at work, and if a model like that is accurate, then it is much more valuable than individual predictions, which can after all be derailed by unforeseen events.

    In fact part of the brilliance of the Left Singularity paradigm is how it explains why, as the singularity approaches, unforeseen events necessarily become more and more likely. So we should expect making specific predictions to become more and more difficult with time.

    Where Jim’s predictions do seem to fall short is on timing. And that’s not surprising. I have traded stocks more or less successfully for a quarter of a century, but I keep failing miserably at trading options because it’s much harder to get both the direction and timing of the market right than the direction alone. Similarly with predicting history: Jim consistently gets the direction of things right even if we can quibble about timing.

    For example, we could argue about whether elections matter or not today, but can anyone doubt that they matter much less than they did a decade ago, and will matter still less a few years from now?

    (Side note: Youngkin’s victory seems completely unremarkable; for decades the role of the opposition to the Inner Party has been (a) to channel and dissipate dissent, and (b) to slow the boiling of the frog to acceptable levels, and Youngkin is simply more in this vein.)

    Again as regards timing, I am also surprised that Trump is not yet in jail or dead, but that doesn’t mean he stays free through 2024.

    And we can argue about whether mandatory clot-shot vaccination will be ratcheted up again next winter (I think it will) but even if not, with mandatory vaccination the Left has found a wonderful way to purge the military, academia, and big business of anyone who doesn’t go along with their groupthink enough to sacrifice their body to it. Does anyone really think there won’t be more physical loyalty oaths, maybe with some other virus as the excuse?

    When I look at bond market maturities, I tend to agree with Jim’s estimate that something big hits the fan around 2026, possibly a bit thereafter. But who knows? An unusually perspicacious Fed governor or two could kick that can down the road a few years.

    That might invalidate Jim’s finger-in-the-wind estimate, but not the broad themes he highlights: lack of elite cohesion, technological decline, and murderous holiness spiraling a la Pol Pot.

    And what I come here to Jim’s blog for, while living here in the belly of the beast making money, is to monitor the progress of those broad themes on one hand, and on the other any signs that any cohesive alternative to Globohomo is developing and has a chance.

    Because unless that happens I will have to sooner or later pull the rip cord and get my family out of Dodge before starvation or genocide come for them. Jim’s insightful observations help my own assessments, and for those I am grateful, whether or not each of his predictions plays out quite on schedule.

    • Joe W. says:

      > Again as regards timing, I am also surprised that Trump is not yet in jail or dead, but that doesn’t mean he stays free through 2024.

      This isn’t surprising at all. If that had happened already, the Republicans would have three years to sort out a new frontrunner. By waiting until closer to 2024, it gives Trump’s potential successors and supporters much less time to plan and react.

      And also, let’s not forget, Trump has been pushing the clot shot all along, including the boosters. In that sense, he’s serving as a useful idiot for the commies.

      • Mike in Boston says:

        he’s serving as a useful idiot for the commies.

        Yep. Possible even that they neuter him enough (play along or Ivanka goes to jail!) that he ends up serving their interests indefinitely, including in the 2024 campaign.

      • Waldman says:

        Trumps credibility was at an all time low after he left office, but is slowly gaining it back from the blunders of the Biden administration.

        after J6, i would of said it was impossible for trump to come bac in 2024. now? it’s possible.

        • jim says:

          Been monitoring Trump’s output. To all appearances, he has learned nothing. Still subscribing to Worship of the Awesome and Mighty Covid Demon, even as every day it becomes obvious that it was never anything more than a bad flu, and is now just another cold.

          It is more closely related to one of the more common colds, rather than to previous flues. It was a weaponized version not of bat flu, but of bat colds.

          It was plausible that it was originally quite deadly in China, but in the field, after escaping from or being deliberately released from the lab, has been rapidly evolving back to its normal wild type ecological role, which is a cold.

          • Mayflower Sperg says:

            I suspect that Covid’s lethality has been declining exponentially since the day it leaked, but early reports from Wuhan hospitals, which have only been seen by trusted CCP members, cemented its reputation as “a new pandemic, as deadly as SARS and as contagious as swine flu”, to quote from the 2010 History Channel docudrama After Armageddon.

            Which would explain why China still freaks out and locks down whole cities over a handful of mild Covid cases.

    • Neurotoxin says:

      “I am also surprised that Trump is not yet in jail or dead”

      What happens to Trump will tell us something about the relative power of the “sane” left and the insane left. So far, the relatively sane left knows that imprisoning, let alone executing, Trump would be an irreversible shedding of the mask of normalcy.

      There’s a funny moment in The Lego Movie when the main character goes, “I love that corporation! They make so much good stuff: surveillance cameras, all history textbooks, voting machines… Wait a minute.”

      Trump going to jail would be a “Wait a minute” moment even for the most brain-dead Republican griller. And the relatively sane left knows this.

      Once the utterly insane left is in control, Trump is dead within a couple of years, max. He either gets officially executed for “treason” or something (low probability IMHO) or he gets sent to prison and quickly Epsteined (high probability IMHO).

      “An unusually perspicacious Fed governor or two could kick that can down the road a few years.”

      It would have to be Paul Volcker Mark 2. Possible, especially since many people at the Fed still remember the 1970s. It might depend on who’s really in power and can tug on the Fed’s leash. If it’s the Brezhnevians, then a Volcker would probably be allowed to step on the monetary brake pedal to stop the inflation. If the AOC faction, no way. Even if that crowd weren’t insane and evil, they simply don’t have the intelligence or the time horizon to see why slamming down the brake pedal is necessary. Extreme leftists make mayflies look like paragons of patience and foresight.

      • The Cominator says:

        “It would have to be Paul Volcker Mark 2. Possible, especially since many people at the Fed still remember the 1970s. It might depend on who’s really in power and can tug on the Fed’s leash. If it’s the Brezhnevians, then a Volcker would probably be allowed to step on the monetary brake pedal to stop the inflation.”

        Can’t be stopped, simple mathematics.

      • A2 says:

        It looks to me like people are unwillling to go through a Volcker-style tough few years just to reduce inflation. Life has been on easy mode the last few years, or decade, for the ruling class while the trash class get their needs met without having to worry about salaries or savings. If we recall, the mediterranean countries ran on routinely inflationary policies and deficits for decades and, while they ended up with joke currencies like lira, pesetas and so on, it still worked.

        It currently seems to me more likely that monetary rehab will have to be forced from the outside, but what outside? Bitcoin? Post-SWIFT energy trading?

        • The Cominator says:

          The Volker solution cannot work, the debt must be monetized. Why do people persist on this stupid idea. It is mathematically impossible to do other than monetize the debt.

          • A2 says:

            Please walk me through the proof. I can see there is a lack of will, but I assume you mean something else.

            • The Cominator says:

              To crush inflation the government would have to set interest rates at at least the rate of inflation as is so like 10% at the very very least…

              Which would mean the government paying more than 3 trillion a year in interest on the debt in an economy that would crash to worse than the levels of Germany in 1929 (this was AFTER the great inflation)… and since they couldn’t get that much in taxes even if they cut everything to the bone (which politically would be impossible to say the least) so they would have to print the difference.

              So it could not be done.

          • Karl says:

            Default is a time tested solution to get rid of debt without monetization.

            • The Cominator says:

              When the Cathedral as a whole wants something they can ignore the constitution (which prohibits debt defaults) but given that some bondholders will want something for their money they won’t be able to here… and monetizing it just easier.

              So it will be monetized.

              • Neurotoxin says:

                When the Cathedral as a whole wants something they can ignore the constitution (which prohibits debt defaults) but given that some bondholders will want something for their money they won’t be able to here… and monetizing it just easier.
                So it will be monetized.

                Maybe, maybe not. In history we see a fuck-ton of inflations and a fuck-ton of defaults. And it’s not like they’re mutually exclusive. So I can’t predict what will happen.

                If your assessment of bondholders’ political power is right – and it may be – it’s a political reality, not a mathematical reality. Though the mathematics you mentioned is certainly a relevant piece of the political situation.

          • pyrrhus says:

            Obviously… the politicians won’t even consider any alternatives because the political consequences of monetization will be far more tolerable than its alternatives and they can escape before the US turns into Zimbabwe..

          • Aryaman says:

            Provided there is the will for it, any solution that gets the accounting in order and solves the question of who owes what, who owns what will work and are probably in fact mathematically rather similar to each other.

            There is no will for it because the program is premised on the labor theory of value, and a solution would result in skyrocketing unemployment until people failing to add value find themselves employed as domestic help for the people who do.

            Jim talks about Sarbanes-Oxley. I didn’t really understand the effect until I recently had to study financial statements from the 1990s and early 2000s and was astonished at how much easier they were to read and understand.

  42. Starman says:

    “We have rapidly increasing hordes of enemies being flown in.
    The flooding of America with enemies has escalated.”

    The niggers flown in to displace Whites in Ukraine are desperately trying to flee as Russian forces enter Ukraine.

  43. Pooch says:

    My prediction has always been total war, mass murder on a very large scale, or total collapse around 2026 or so.

    Well to give credit where credit is due Jim has to be liking his odds for the first one. The other two seem exceedingly unlikely but total war with Russia by 2026 is definitely a distinct possibility now.

    • Red says:

      We almost saw mass murder of the unvaccinated this year. The level of hatred expressed towards purebloods was on a whole different scale with the term plague rats being the most common. It wasn’t quite ready for murdering pure bloods in the street and burning down their homes, but it definitely was getting close.

      That murderous rage has been switched to Putin, but it will be come back around again when they need to target domestic foes.

      • Pooch says:

        Their only method of mass murder is gangs of niggers killing whites. Niggers don’t want to murder whites because they are unvaxed, they want to murder whites because they are white.

        • James says:

          They most definitely have whites and mulattos who would be ready to murder whites if sufficiently organized. I have met many, many people in my upper middle class circles who have said things like, “I don’t think we should force them to get the vaccine, I just think they shouldn’t be allowed out of their homes”, “People who don’t have the vaccine don’t belong on this planet”, and “I support companies who are firing stay at home employees who don’t get vaccinated”.

          All of that really teeters on the edge of genocide. That is a hair’s breadth from things getting very, very bad.

          • Joe W. says:

            > I have met many, many people in my upper middle class circles who have said things like,

            You’re scared of fake tough-guy talk from email caste clowns who hid at home for two years because of Covid? These people are physically weak, unarmed, and afraid of their shadows.

            • James says:

              I’m not afraid of them per se, but I see that if there were a genocide, there would be no outrage and no reprisal from the lower elite. Blacks can’t organize, but they can murder. The “e-mail caste” can’t kill, but they can organize. The Cathedral has both at its disposal, which is ingredients for a very volatile genocide, indeed.

              It would quickly devolve into an autogenocide, of course, but if the Cathedral could see that, they wouldn’t be the Cathedral.

          • Pooch says:

            Of course the elite and the upper social classes *want* to genocide Amerikaner whites. It’s who they will use to actually do it. I believe the police and the military will not follow that order though, given they are largely Amerikaner whites themselves. Which means it’s up to the marauding gangs of blacks. See the ethnic cleansing of Detroit and Ferguson for examples.

            • The Cominator says:

              “I believe the police and the military will not follow that order though, given they are largely Amerikaner whites themselves.”

              Military no, police yes.

              • Pooch says:

                Only city police and the FBI but rural cops and sheriffs deputies would not allow that.

  44. Attention says:

    I had not meant to criticise Jim’s predictions overall. I am a keen student of Jim. However, there have been many predictions done recently, and accurate predictions indicate a good understanding of reality, and a lot of these predictions are proving false.

    Corona worship is being slowly rolled back in Australia, and its enforcement is virtually non-existent in NSW, and in other otherwise fanatic provinces of Globohomo. Trump is still free, and the lunatic Left are still in chains. Youngkin won an election that was predicted to be impossible because rigged. Why was Namefag Yarvin’s understanding of Trump and the events around Trump better than ours?

    I want to know why these predictions are proving false, and I want it discussed so any failures in theory can be removed. It’s not helping that a lot of comments at the moment are creating an echo chamber vibe, requiring most comments and commenters to be skipped.

    • jim says:

      Australia in an excess of holy zeal got ahead of the empire. The center of empire was always proceeding more slowly on jabbing everyone at ever decreasing intervals. There are still no end of situations in Australia where you have to present a jab pass, which puts continual pressure on normies to get jabbed.

      I don’t have any data on the young and working age death rate in Australia, but would expect the working age death rate to have massively increased, and young death rate to have increased enormously. Check with some life insurance companies for working age deaths, and funeral companies for deaths before twenty one, and tell me what you find.

      I expect that they have made a good start on killing everyone, and will continue.

    • Pooch says:

      Why was Namefag Yarvin’s understanding of Trump and the events around Trump better than ours?

      Yarvin identified Trump was going to be a mere simulation of Caesar very shortly after he won, where as Jim and those here held out hope Trump would be the real deal Augustus Caesar all the way to Jan 6 (Possibly a costly decision if you attended the events of that day).

      Yarvin’s rationale was that Trump failed to sell his properties was an indication he was not going all in (“Imagine if Napoealon had some winery or something as his back up plan”). He also understood that Trump really had no concrete plan for what comes after “drain the swamp” or how to do it, demonstrating his incompetence.

      • annonous says:

        The more important tell was Trump’s character. It is obvious that Trump was not a potential dictator or even an “alpha male”. He is a celebrity with a reality show. Same kind of person as Oprah and Dr. Phil. He treated his “Presidency” like a reality TV show.

        Note how rapt we all were every time he “made the media look stupid”. He spent a lot of time tweeting and talking to the media, not much time actually trying to gain power. Again, reality TV host, he wanted all eyes to be on him all the time.

        • Joe W. says:

          Trump fired more people on his TV show than he did as president. It was obvious from Week #1 that he was no Reagan, let alone Caesar.

          • jim says:

            As president, Trump had no power to fire the people that mattered.

            Needed to have them killed, as Hillary would have done, and rather frequently has done.

            • Joe W. says:

              Nobody forced Trump to install Ivanka and Jared as his top two advisors. From 2017 through 2019, those two sabotaged him more than anyone. Inexcusable unforced error.

            • Mike in Boston says:

              There was probably some middle ground between Trump following the letter of current law, which indeed did not allow him to fire the people that mattered; and finding some grounds, perhaps a pending investigation kept confidential for reasons of national security, that would have allowed him to have those people fired de facto, and perhaps locked up. The latter would have preserved more of the illusion of normalcy.

              But expecting this sort of out of the box thinking from Trump turned out to be too much to ask.

              • Joe W. says:

                There was certainly no law that required Trump to let Fauci lead him around by the dick for an entire year. Had Trump had the good sense to sideline Fauci from the start, he might very well still be president, if for no other reason than the absurd amounts of mail-in voting and polling place “social distancing” would never have been allowed.

          • James says:

            Trump tried to fire ten times as many people as he actually fired. The President has very little actual power if he does not have a cooperative and loyal Presidency and White House.

            Where I think Trump failed is that he grew up in the old world were America was not yet entirely a farce. In this way, he was a lot like Julius Caesar, and he died politically (thankfully not yet literally) — through the betrayal of the corrupt senate.

            It is, however, difficult to imagine a wayward adopted nephew of Trump gaining power to become Augustus at this point, but who knows what the future holds? I have a good feeling about Barron.

            • The Cominator says:

              He needed to put proud boys in DC, who would kill anyone he wanted dead and then he would pardon them…

        • Pooch says:

          In hind sight, exactly what he was. I will say though, Trump as a mock Caesar tripped the Cathedral’s dictator defenses big time and exposed a lot of inner workings behind the curtain. I’ll give him credit for that.

          • Red says:

            It’s interesting that they’re no longer quite so freaked out about Trump. They no longer view him as a potential Caesar, so they’re less inclined to string him up. They might even use him as a puppet.

            • James says:

              They’ve perfected voter fraud and likely won’t need it much longer anyway due to demographic shifts. That doesn’t mean AOC or Kamala wouldn’t have him executed if he was their opponent.

    • Starman says:


      “I want to know why these predictions are proving false, and I want it discussed so any failures in theory can be removed. It’s not helping that a lot of comments at the moment are creating an echo chamber vibe, requiring most comments and commenters to be skipped.”

      Probably bad modeling. Do the globohomo rulers actually sincerely believe in the COVID demon, for example… or are they insincere? If your model is wrong on that, then its predictions for it will be wrong.

      • Red says:

        Do the globohomo rulers actually sincerely believe in the COVID demon, for example… or are they insincere?

        It’s clear the leadership doesn’t believe in it. But it’s also clear the rank and file do. The big question is why did they end the worship?

        1. It was unpopular and would hurt their re-election chances.

        2. The UK dropping it was making it increasingly hard to hide that Omi was an airborne vaccine and they were being mocked for continuing.

        3. The Cathedral realized their military was fucked and decided to move onto trying to build public support and unity to fight Putin.

        I don’t have a clue about their reasoning. As always we have no idea what they’re actually thinking because we don’t have any intelligence from their decision making circles.

        • BANE says:

          I think covid was sidelined til next fall/winter in order to make room for the ru/ukr war to be at the forefront of public consciousness. Likely because covid has accomplished what they needed it to (for now), they can bring it back later, and the war is more immediately beneficial to their short term goals – disguising/covering up vaxx mortality, blaming inflation and gas/oil shortages on something, etc.

          I cant remember if it was this way in the past, but ever since covid we’ve had hyperfocused narratives – when BLM peaceful protests were happening covid was similarly shelved for the duration. It seems that one non-explicitly globohomo thing can be at the forefront of “current affairs”. By drawing analogies to principles of globohomo, the regime then lets the public know what opinion on said “thing” is “on the right side of history”.

          And normies are obviously gobbling it up.

    • Neofugue says:

      Perhaps the Left is moderately easing Covid restrictions for the upcoming US elections this year; those in charge of the Brezhnevian decline are going to wish to keep the pretense of democracy alive to a certain degree for themselves.

      Also Covid worship is not being abandoned, merely being sidelined – vaccination and testing requirements are still present at all major universities. Vaccine mandates are still in effect for healthcare workers.

      Where is your evidence for the lunatic Left being in chains? The cuckservative Youngkin? Do not forget how the Left stole the New Jersey governorship on the same day in a similar fashion to 2020.

      To your credit, Trump is not in chains, so that prediction is [as of now] false, but Trump has largely caved into Covid worship.

  45. Joe W. says:

    > My prediction has always been total war, mass murder on a very large scale, or total collapse around 2026 or so.

    I’ve been expecting the same, but in 2024 or 2028. I’m curious about your choice of 2026, which isn’t a presidential election year. Are you expecting a non-electoral trigger of these events? Hard to imagine either side going to war over a midterm.

    I’m also puzzled by these two apparently concurrent beliefs:

    > One hundred white men could retake South Africa.

    > Prediction: Republicans eliminated in November, perhaps merely quietly pushed out of power, perhaps physically annihilated. Most likely quietly pushed out of power, while arrangements are quietly made for later physical annihilation.

    Who’s doing the retaking and the annihilating in these scenarios? A bunch of unarmed buffoons scared our “elites” shitless on Jan. 6, and Antifa and BLM would get slaughtered if they took their act into the civilized parts of the U.S., for the same reasons that “One hundred white men could retake South Africa.”

    The police? The military?

    • jim says:

      > > My prediction has always been total war, mass murder on a very large scale, or total collapse around 2026 or so.

      > I’ve been expecting the same, but in 2024 or 2028. I’m curious about your choice of 2026, which isn’t a presidential election year.

      I always expected elections to become irrelevant several years before 2026. They have.

      > I’m also puzzled by these two apparently concurrent beliefs:

      > > One hundred white men could retake South Africa.

      > > Prediction: Republicans eliminated in November, perhaps merely quietly pushed out of power, perhaps physically annihilated. Most likely quietly pushed out of power, while arrangements are quietly made for later physical annihilation.

      > Who’s doing the retaking and the annihilating in these scenarios?

      Same people who stole the recent elections and are now indefinitely imprisoning the Jan 6 protesters..

      • Joe W. says:

        > Same people who stole the recent elections and are now indefinitely imprisoning the Jan 6 protesters..

        Shaniqua and a bunch of shitlib lawyers?

        It’s quite a leap from inner-city shitlibs stealing an election by mail fraud during a (pretend) pandemic from an embarrassingly unprepared foe to “annihilation” of millions of Republicans.

        There’s no doubt we have a pandemic of effeminacy and cowardice among American men, but American non-leftists are still the most heavily armed group of citizens on the planet. It’s one thing not to shoot first, but a lot more than a few will shoot back, when the shit truly his the fan.

        • jim says:

          If the Republican party is removed from the official and formal pretense of power, the rank and file Republicans will not immediately be removed from physical existence, though the Republican party might well be removed from physical existence not very long after.

        • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

          >Shaniqua and a bunch of shitlib lawyers?

          Well they did it, did they not?

          The GAE is in terminal decline now, but do not forget we are where we are now because there was a time when they were dominant.

          GAE wanted to destroy Rhodesia and South Africa, and so they were destroyed; if GAE itself goes the way of South Africa, then where would the evil empire be that would try to stop Generalissimo Basado y Rojopastillodillo from creating his own slice of white christian civilization? Nowhere.

          • Pooch says:

            Generalissimo Basado y Rojopastillodillo from creating his own slice of white christian civilization? Nowhere.

            Entirely consistent with Yarvin’s fall of the western Roman Empire thesis. After all order of the barely functioning third world GAE breaks down, the mobile bandits will become stationary bandits.

          • Starman says:


            “>Shaniqua and a bunch of shitlib lawyers?

            Well they did it, did they not?”

            And those African migrants will desperately flee as soon as the USG is unable to protect them, like they are doing now in the Ukraine.

          • Joe W. says:

            > Well they did it, did they not?

            Yes, they stole an election, from a guy who was buffoonishly incompetent and unprepared. It’s a huge leap from that to “annihilating” people, particularly heavily armed people who are much smarter.

            • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

              The trouble with a circular firing squad is that, in spite of the fact noone is really ‘in charge’ of the festivities anymore, each isolated figure, on their own, does not want to risk taking unilateral action.

              But of course, it is exactly those social technologies, embedded Traditions of society, that allow for coordination, that the polygon has been most assiduous throughout it’s history in debasing, leaving only atomized orphans of modernity.

              The moment the possibility of signaling intentions without reprisal becomes reality, is the moment the bubble pops, and Caesar and his armies spring up from the ground of Being instantly.

            • jim says:

              > Trump was not buffoonishly incompetent and unprepared.

              He was far more capable of doing what needed to be done than any recent political figure.

              The only way he could of stopped things is using violence and a praetorian guard. I frequently remarked throughout the Trump years that he would need to call out the militia, and was endlessly disappointed at his failure to do so.

              Telling me that Trump was buffoonishly incompetent is like explaining to me that Musk is not really a rocket scientist. Where is your hot wife and flying palace?

              Everything he did was completely sound, under the false assumptions of normality bias, and would have worked spectacularly well if normality bias had been correct that the Republic still existed.

              If normality bias was accurate, Trump would still be president, and Biden and Hillary would be in jail for taking enormous bribes.

              Trump’s one enormous mistake was failure to recognize that the Republic was dead, and large scale organized deadly violence was necessary, something I have been pointing out since Sheriff Joe was arrested.

              • Joe W. says:

                > Trump’s one enormous mistake was failure to recognize that the Republic was dead,

                Well, sure, but that was obvious in 2015 and 2016. It boggles the mind that Trump hadn’t realized this before he took office and prepared accordingly, and it’s unforgivable that he didn’t. He left allies like Kris Kobach sitting by the phone for four years while listening to Jared and Ivanka.

                • annonous says:

                  It’s actually very simple. Trump didn’t want power. He wanted to be President.

                • jim says:

                  > Trump didn’t want power. He wanted to be President.


                  What could he have done, short of what needed to be done, short of having the necessary people killed and calling out the militia?.

                • annonous says:

                  He didn’t want to do anything. That is my point. He wanted the trappings of power (mostly attention) but didn’t want actual power. He lost, they stole the election, he’s no longer President, but if he won he would also no longer be President in the sense in which he wanted to be President, but something else. He would have to actually do real kingly deeds, with real danger and responsibility. That’s too much work, so he took the L.

                  Basically Trump is a female.

                • jim says:

                  > He didn’t want to do anything

                  Trump wanted to dismantle oppressive regulation, build the wall, and bring jobs back to the rust belt. And, to the extent that he was able to get away with those things, did so.

                  I really, really, really love what he did about H1B.

                  He also wanted to make America strong, respected and feared, and took care of terrorists all over the world.

                  He also wanted peace, and to the extent that he could get away with it, wound up more forever wars than I can recall.

                • Adam says:

                  I get where Annonous is coming from. Often Trump seemed like the typical boomer consumer, “I want to be President” the same way “I want that car”.

                  And despite the way he talked about his opposition, I always got a sense, like most Republicans, that he only wanted power if everyone agrees that he should have power, and that if his opponents do not support him he should not do everything he must to succeed, because that would not be fair.

                  He wanted to be President but he was too concerned about his image, he wanted to win while still playing by the rules (for republicans).

                  He just did not have it in him to win at any cost. He did not have the attitude “I am going to win or I am going to die, I am going to defeat my enemies or I am going to die”. His reservations led to normalcy bias, and his normalcy bias led to his reservations.

  46. Pooch says:

    Disastrous faith put in Trump, prediction of the Corona Worship being pushed until we are all dead, prediction that Trump would be imprisoned and the insane Left grabbing the reins of power.

    If this post is going to be about predictions, then I think it’s fair game to say that these predictions, which started this post, should be addressed.

    • jim says:

      No alternative to having faith in Trump, until he fled the battlefied.

      The insane left has grabbed power in substantial part, but the Brezhnevian elite is stalling them from decisive action, as the Girondists stalled. It is easy delay or obstruct action from within, hard to act. The insane left is becoming increasingly impatient with that stalling.

      I expected the left to set about eliminating obstacles within the left back in May or April. This has not happened yet, but events remain on track for it to happen soon enough.

      As I said back in 2012: “I say collapse or civil war II in 2026. He is saying 2022. If it is 2022, I will surely say I was right, and if it is 2026, he will surely say he was right.”

      And similarly, if the radicals physically remove the Bhreznevians before long, I will say I was right.

      • The Cominator says:

        Removing Russia from SWIFT is a pretty radical step imho…

      • clovis says:

        What in particular is the insane left wanting done that is being obstructed? Reparations? Gun confiscation? Genociding white conservatives>

        • jim says:

          Build it Back Better is not passed, and is theoretically not being implemented. That is the biggie. They want white America and the economy that actually produces stuff burned to the ground. There are lots of other things also, but that is the biggie.

    • Guy says:

      Things are only seeming to proceed slowly in the moment. Historians likely will be stunned by the swiftness of the fall here. From the Trump populist uprising/Brexit, to COVID, to inflation, to Jan 6th, to the loss of Afghanistan, to the loss of Ukraine. That’s all dominos falling. If it’s then Taiwan, then broader war in Europe, then larger domestic unrest, then historians might be debating the causes of such a rapid collapse for generations despite how obvious it all is to us.

    • pyrrhus says:

      I’m still curious as to where the year 2026 came from, though Jim’s predictions remain extremely impressive…Armstrong’s AI says after the 2032 elections…

      • jim says:

        Deep history. Same principle as people who predicted a technological singularity on the basis pre 1970 data.

        In the sixties and early seventies, technology fell off that curve. The ratchet of social decay overtook the ratchet of technological advance. But the left singularity has been sticking close to a trajectory ending in a singularity ever since the nineteenth century, and has not yet deviated.

        People tell me that after Biden was appointed, it deviated, but the election was right on the path to leftism going infinite sometime around 2026. I think this is just a prolonged Girondist-Kadet period. The Covid State religion and “Build it back Better” is right on the path. The State Religion just turned homicidal, and Build It Back Better resembles the Khmer Rouge plans for rice growing on the flood plain. The gerontocratic Brezhnevite are horrified and, to my surprise and contrary to my expectations, are stalling successfully, but since they cannot admit they are stalling, the stall is bound to fail sooner or later, probably sooner.

  47. Severian says:

    I too must make a humble victory lap for predicting this exact war weeks before it kicked off.
    In truth it was really about recognizing the arguments made by the smarter military annalists rather than the politicians and intellectuals who are still in disbelief.
    When you see an unprecedented military build up, you have to entertain the fact that the next step might also be unprecedented.

    Many people made the error of assuming that because the US was warning about it, it automatically meant that it can’t be true. Important lesson there.

    • Deacon Blues says:

      I have to admit, it’s my newly discovered blind spot. The moment the MSM says it, I refuse to believe it. I’ll have to be more cautious in the future. When the MSM mentions it, it is not because it will not happen. They do only mention things if they can spin them in a way to support the regime, though. Category error fixed.

  48. jim says:

    >Yarvin’s prediction, given in 2008, is that our future is South Africa and Venezuela.

    Not possible. South Africa and Venezuela exist by the power of the America Empire.

    One hundred white men could retake South Africa.

    Venezuela sits on a lake of oil that they cannot pump, and a mountain of gold that they cannot dig. It would take rather more than a hundred white men to establish the necessary peace and security to allow the oil to be pumped and the gold to be dug, but rather few compared to the gold and the oil.

    Our future may well be that white men are too busy killing each other to pump that oil and mine that gold, but it is not going to be South Africa and Venezuela.

    • Severian says:

      Yarvin is not really committed to a particular prediction. He thinks it might be Venezuela, or that the regime will reinvent itself like it has every 70 years or so.

      • Pooch says:

        He has consistently given a worst and best case.

        On the Tucker interview he said the worse case and the default path, without a regime change, is the fall of the Western Roman Empire which is in perfect alignment of his prior South Africa/Third World prediction.

        With a regime change, the best case would be the end of the Roman Republic and the rise of Caesarism, which was the whole point of UR, that we need a regime change into monarchy to save us from a third world future.

    • Pooch says:

      One hundred white men could retake South Africa.

      Well why haven’t they yet? Eventually the South African government will collapse and maybe 100 white men take over. Maybe they don’t. Its story is not over, but that doesn’t necessarily mean America’s future won’t be approximately the same. They are ahead of us. Their future is our future.

      My prediction has always been total war, mass murder on a very large scale, or total collapse around 2026 or so.
      Events remain on track for that prediction.

      To be fair, you’ve given yourself quite a bit of outs here.

      • jim says:

        > > One hundred white men could retake South Africa.

        > Well why haven’t they yet?

        Because the international community would intervene and kill them. Probably attempt to murder every white in South Africa, as they have made a good start on murdering every Tutsi in the Congo.

        • Pooch says:

          We are not seeing that in Ukraine. The “international community” is losing its teeth as we speak.

          • Severian says:

            Well they ARE trying to defeat Russia with every possible mean except direct conflict. Sanctions (except energy), truck loads of weapons, full wartime infowar on media etc…

          • jim says:

            As its grip fails, interesting events are going to happen. But they can intervene in South Africa without risking World War III – you may recollect that Putin threatened World War III should the “international community” intervene militarily in the Ukraine. For the moment, it is overwhelmingly likely that they would intervene militarily in South Africa. They were quite recently providing military assistance for genocide in the Congo. Maybe they still are.

      • Starman says:


        “Well why haven’t they yet? Eventually the South African government will collapse and maybe 100 white men take over.”

        South Africa has 2.8 million PMCs. And only 74,000 military, 94,000 police. The SA government doesn’t have much real power over its territories.

    • Pooch says:

      South Africa and Venezuela exist by the power of the America Empire.

      Venezuela no longer does. Maduro pulled a Stalin. Is a literal Stalin. He has defeated multiple American Empire coups against him.

  49. The Cominator says:

    Predicting the future is extremely hard… seeing thru bullshit in the present and what current trendlines are is doable… but hard to predict what will really happen.

    Nobody has all the information and even if you did no human mind no human mind no matter how brilliant could process all the variables…

    • Pooch says:

      It is, but Yarvin has the best track record by far.

      • Joe W. says:

        Sailer is at least in the discussion. Anyone who’s been reading him for 20 years has known exactly where we were headed.

        That said, I lost a lot of respect for both after their absurd Covid pants-wetting. (I know Sailer has had health problems. Yarvin has seemingly tried to blame his on his immuno-compromised wife, but then he apparently started dating before her body was cold, so I’m not really buying that excuse.)

        • clovis says:

          My experience has been that even the most red pilled boomers were at least a little scared of covid, or trusted the vaccines were safe. Whatever their history of protesting the vietnam war or not trusting anyone over 30, boomers almost 100 percent continue to trust medical, political, and journalistic institutions.

          The people I know who refused to be vaccinated and perhaps lost jobs about it were all Gen X or younger. I can only think of one exception.

          • clovis says:

            This doesn’t explain Yarvin, I guess, but it does explain Sailer.

            • Starman says:


              “This doesn’t explain Yarvin, I guess, but it does explain Sailer.”

              Yarvin is of the email caste. Nearly everyone in the email caste were shitting their pants on covid, even after the infamous BLM open letter signed by health officials that said BLM rioters were immune from covid.

          • Joe W. says:

            Boomers have always loved credentials. No doubt about that.

          • pyrrhus says:

            There are a few of us who are Boomer exceptions, but you’re generally right…In my case, I have cheated death too many times to worry about the flu, but had difficulty convincing more than a handful to stay away from the death shot…

            • clovis says:

              Finding a boomer who can conceptualize that a vaccine might be bad is as difficult as finding a boomer who thinks Martin Luther King was not a hero.

              • Kunning Drueger says:

                Lol, exactly. Or finding a Boomer that can delineate between Russia and the USSR.

      • The Cominator says:

        I will never be able to have all that much respect for anyone who fell for covid wholesale…

      • Mike Thalassitis says:

        What predictions did Yarvin make?

        • Pooch says:

          Trump was going to be a scam after he won in 2016. He was never going to be a real Caesar.

          • pyrrhus says:

            He was certainly right about that one…

          • Mike Thalassitis says:

            Those are two predictions about Trump. The first is definitely up for debate, and the second prediction, that Trump wouldn’t be a real Caesar, was a fairly “safe” prediction.

            Yarvin’s initial prediction that Covid would be a big deal was sort of correct, and he made a decent profit shorting stocks IIRC. But the rest of his covid stuff was retarded. He was still recommending the vax late last year. Jim correctly identified the inflection point with covid, as HCQ was becoming widely used. After which point there was no longer any excess death (until the jabs).

            IIRC, Jim predicted the Trump election victory while all of the other social matter NRx guys thought he had no chance. See e.g. Descending the Tower from 2015.

            The other Moldbug/Yarvin predictions I can think of off the top of my head are “Bitcoin is a bubble” and “USA is going to last another 250(?) years”. Jim’s 2026 predictions are looking a lot better than these two.

            I read most of UR years ago, but have not read much of Yarvin. I don’t remember him making too many predictions. When he does make predictions they are basically that “nothing ever happens”. These are safe predictions to make because most of the time nothing happens. Whereas Jim is making predictions that most people would give a <1% chance of happening, so must be given more weight if they do come true.

            • Pseudo-Chrysostom says:

              Or in other words, the domains of mediocristan and extremistan. Frequentism vs fat tails and black swans.

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