The current strategy of the war faction of Thermidor is to fight the war to the last Ukrainian in order to attrit Russia.
Trump is obviously unhappy with this strategy, but the war faction, Marco Rubio, tell him that Russia is suffering huge enormous stupendous gigantic colossal casualties, so if we keep going just a tiny teensy weeny little little bit longer the Russians will concede better peace terms than they are now offering.
On the other hand hand, if we and Russia keep going at it bit longer, we will reach the last Ukrainian, and the political fallout from the disappearance of a European American client state is likely to be worse the Afghanistan retreat. The war faction strategy is likely to leave egg all over Trump’s face, and may well be intended to do so. Undoubtedly many recent recruits from the Deep State to Maga are chafing at Trump actually doing the job of president. They would much prefer to do that job themselves. “Oh Trump disastrously $@%#& up the Ukraine war, so he should leave this sort of thing to the experts”
The actual casualties on both sides are covered by fog of war, but we have some indicators of the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties.
1. Russians are fighting a war of attrition, where the objectives are to maximise the cost in blood and treasure to the enemy, and minimise one’s own expenditure of blood and treasure. They only advance when they run out of Ukrainians opposing them on the front, whereupon they advance until they find some more Ukrainians willing to form a new front, and they retreat when the situation becomes unfavourable. We see lots of videos of four Russians on motorcycles taking a system of bunkers and trenches.
The Ukrainians, on the other hand, are fighting a war for bullet points in the next Washington power point presentation. In so far as their tactics make any sense, they make sense only in a war of maneuver, and this is not a war of maneuver.
2. Far more shells, rockets, and bombs are landing on the Ukrainian front lines, than are landing on the Russian front lines.
3. There are far more Russians on the front line than Ukrainians, which means that every individual Ukrainian on the front line is getting shot at by lots of Russians, while Russians on the front line are getting shot at by fewer Ukrainians.
4. The Russian army is obviously growing. Despite fog of war, we can see that the Ukrainian army is obviously shrinking.
Under these conditions, Putin is unlikely to offer easier peace conditions, and as the Ukrainian army continues to shrink, is likely to offer harsher conditions.
If Trump accepts current Russian peace terms, there will be a great deal of outrage and indignation. If he accepts even worse Russian peace terms next month, even more outrage and indignation, and if the war continues to the last Ukrainian, he is going to get blamed for that by both the war faction and the peace faction even more.
https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1940515035090243862
This is an interesting interview of someone who I imagine to be a voice of Thermidor. He describes how insanely difficult it is to become an elite warrior, but at some point he says [*Does he say that?*]
Does he say that? I have always found your reports of what people say somewhat strange. I would have allowed this comment through if you had given me a timestamp in the video so that I could check what he is actually saying.
Tucker is increasingly open about positioning himself to the right even of Trump on some issues. Is he only building his interview business, trying to be the Rush Limbaugh of the new media landscape, or is there an option of a presidential run, outflanking Vance with his administration baggage?
And whichever way the above question is answered, is he trying to nurture a new voter bloc for actual results, or is his role to keep the plebs sated by throwing them red meat without any actual deliverables? The new Rush Limbaugh would be an apt metaphor for the latter.
These would be interesting conversations to have with someone who wasn’t AF. If you must wedge issue, at least pick a good one.
Tucker cannot be trusted completely. Trump was all set to refuse to even declare an emergency over the fake and gay covid virus and the rest of the right would have fallen into line. It was Tucker’s discordant voice early on that prevented this. Tucker is generally good but on that occassion he was disastorous.
The big lie on the Ukraine is still being shouted through every megaphone, though it is no longer a thought crime to doubt it.
“Putin is a dictator,” “The Ukraine is a democracy.” “The Ukraine is winning, winning, winning.” “Putin will fall” — meaning Russia will fall and the carpetbaggers will be able to resume the looting of Russia.
The “winning” narrative makes peace negotiation impossible, because Trump either believes it, and makes utterly unrealistic demands, or fears the reaction from the self deluded should he make realistic demands. Or perhaps something of both.
Tucker cannot counter the “winning” narrative, because of his interview form.
He has done a little to counter the Dictator/Democracy narrative.
Tucker cannot be trusted completely. … [covid]
Yeah fair point.
Tucker may even be a literal glowie. He’s got the family connections, and acknowledges a failed, or “failed,” application to the CIA in his young days. I’ve said that before in other contexts, and didn’t want to beat a dead horse, but it would have been relevant here.
With the very major failure of selling Trump on lockdowns and vaccines, and the possible glowing, Tucker being anointed to get out ahead of a crowd that can’t otherwise be defused is a real possibility. But I’m also wondering (over-optimistically?) if there’s any chance it’s a first step towards elite defection.
My read on Tuck is that he is indeed a glownigger, but he has spiritually defected onto our side. You can see when he talks about Amerikaaner proles, he struggles emotionally. He identified with the EducatedTM bureaucracy sect until something shook him out of it, and now he almost feels dishonest when speaking honestly, because it goes against a lifetime of programming.
I do believe that, regardless his origins, he is now spiritually on side. His one talk about the Russian upper class all being champagne socialists right up until the real reds killed them en mass, and how America was now there in that very state, that was a thought crime. Someone still fully possessed by leftism would not be able to make such a connection and then vocalize it as he did.
Tucker sings a different tune these days as this clip suggests:
https://x.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1944509884017569825
He tried, after the 2020 election fraud, to walk the Narrative highwire while maintaining some virtue. Didn’t work too well for him.
Would the war end if Trump were to accept those terms? My impression is that Western Europe would keep supporting Ukraine to fight to the last Ukrainian.
The Ukrainian Nazis will do what they are told.
By who is the question…
Indeed it is.
5. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources agree the Russians are massively outproducing war making materials compared to what the Ukrainians can get. Most importantly, this includes drones, the main method of inflicting casualties. Last report I saw was mutual agreement Russia is outproducing by a factor of 6 to 1, and that was probably a year ago. All indications point to the Russian government having extensively ramp up production.
As a committed Mossad agent, I’d like to apologize for Jeffrey Adolf Epstein soaping and lampshading those 8 gorillion innocent teenage prostitutes.
It’s regretful how much oxygen Epstein sucks up over on The Donald. Before that, though, the Israel-Iran squabble elicited much Manichean noise. Shills gotta shill with something. Ruined the anniversary meme-ing of the first assassination attempt against Trump somewhat today.
Well, I can believe we provided “Lady” Lindsey Graham with male prostitutes, but then again, he seems like a genuinely unhinged warmonger everywhere on the globe (I bet he masochistically enjoys getting severely beaten by those male prostitutes, who might even be black), not exclusively an Iran hawk, so do we really need to blackmail him? This “Israeli honeytrap” narrative could well be itself a CIA psyop. But of course I would say that.
Of all the things to attack Trump for, why this? You’d think that if Trump was involved, some leftist would have leaked it by now. This whole thing is coming off as manufactured controversy.
Probably at least some of the loud kvetching is an astroturf by foreign governments who seek to undermine Trump, boosted by Musk’s algorithms because His Sperginess unfortunately fell for the “pedophilia” hostile meme (and with all due respect to ketamine insights, only readers of this blog tell it like it is) and also possibly seeks himself to undermine Trump.
I doubt too many Real Americans give a flying fuck about this latest and lamest iteration of pizzagate, which — not altogether unlike covid worship in the previous Trump Administration — serves primarily the interests of your hegemonic rival, Chyyyna.
Friends and family see it as a reason to distrust Trump. They’ve independently brought it up. It’s not a particularly big wedge issue, but it is a little cut. You can only take so many of those little cuts, and this one is being pushed not long after the Iran affair, which no ordinary Joe was happy to see either.
Don needs to wrangle the glowniggers before they strangle him next.