Jim's Blog

> > While Namefag Yarvin’s predictions have been fairly good.”

> You’re exactly right. That’s why I’ve stopped paying attention to most of the comments here.

My prediction has always been total war, mass murder on a very large scale, or total collapse around 2026 or so.

Events remain on track for that prediction.

I have been predicting it for twenty years or so, and on this blog, for at least ten years.

We still have “everyone must get vaxxed endlessly” enforcement in most places, despite increasing indication of cumulative damage.

We still have a solid diet of weak men and strong women in the media.

The courtship dance may not be realistically depicted.

We have rapidly increasing hordes of enemies being flown in.

The flooding of America with enemies has escalated. We are seeing some hesitancy in vaxing everyone to death, but the vax enforcement is still at levels likely to kill most normies if vaxing has significant cumulative effect, and it rather looks as if it does have significant cumulative effect.

Money printing continues to escalate.

The general trend to greater and greater abnormality at shorter and shorter intervals is still in place. Yarvin’s prediction was that it would slow down, or somewhat stabilize. This has not happened.

2012/07/14:

The long predicted crisis has arrived. The question is does the current order collapse around 2026 or so, when we have some technological and cultural capability remaining, or do we, like post Roman Britain and today’s North Korea, go all the way back to the stone age around 2080 or so, with only a handful of the rich elite possessing metal artifacts, while the masses scratch at the ground with digging sticks?

2012/11/05

I say collapse or civil war II in 2026. He is saying 2022.

If it is 2022, I will surely say I was right, and if it is 2026, he will surely say he was right.

Well it is now 2022, and things are happening a whole lot faster than they were ten years ago.

2018/04/11

As we approach the left singularity, infinite leftism in finite time, it becomes increasingly hard to make predictions.

I think things blow up around 2026. I also think elections will have ceased to matter some time before 2026.

There will be increasingly dramatic events next week, next month, and next year. The new abnormal will soon become even more abnormal.

Am I a good prophet, or a damned good prophet?

2019/04/29

I suspect that elections may well become transparently irrelevant by late 2020.

But if elections still matter in 2020, the Left’s response will likely render elections irrelevant not very long thereafter.

I still estimate the left singularity for 2026, but as we approach 2026, expect the unexpected.

Well am I damned good prophet? Give me an answer?. Did Moldbug predict what has happened, and what is continuing to happen? I did.

2020/12/17

If Biden gets in, then the people pulling his strings will find that the way they got in makes it impossible to get anything done. Until they start shooting judges and public servants, which I expect to start happening around 2026 or so if Trump fails to start shooting people sooner than that.

It is not that moderation and sanity is prevailing, it is that incapacity is prevailing.

2021/08/01

I continue to predict very large scale violence in 2026 or so, as I have been predicting for decades, but I was thinking that with Trump out of the way we would continue to see escalation in the violence as left wing factions turned up the heat on each other- and in some respects we have seen more violence, for example the Churches burning, but the coalition is holding quite well. The left factions are not turning up the heat on each other. I was expecting some more Epsteins by now.

I conjecture that we are still in the phase of coalition building preparatory for serious power struggle. Which could continue for quite a while. The plan, or a plan of several mutually incompatible plans, is to eliminate the Republicans in the mid terms, and, Republicans eliminated, then go for each other.

You heard it here first. As you heard that democracy was shortly going to abandoned here first. Prediction: Republicans eliminated in November, perhaps merely quietly pushed out of power, perhaps physically annihilated. Most likely quietly pushed out of power, while arrangements are quietly made for later physical annihilation. Then the left turns on each other, with the trend to ever more left wing insanity that has been in place since 1820 in England, and somewhat earlier in America, broken in infinite leftism and infinite insanity

We shall see.

A merry Christmas to all, and peace on earth to all men of goodwill.

When driving, I got tired of the CD, and turned on the radio, to hear the voice of authority calling on the public to report doctors who doubt the vax, or who prescribe safe and effective drugs for Covid, to the medical malpractice board.

This sort of thing makes it difficult to get data.  When you search the internet, nothing comes up except a storm of absurd and outrageous official lies, but I ran into the following posted on Gab.

Total US army deaths from covid itself, over the entire time it has been around, about twenty.

US army deaths and sequelae of vaccination that are likely to be lethal per day, about fifty.

This is roughly what I was expecting from anecdotal data.

Following the wise advice of Prince Charming, I edited a custom personal 256 bit secret into the php code of Avatar Privacy avatar generator, so that now it actually works as it is supposed to.

So now we have avatars, and actually do have privacy.

My own personal experience in security is that your boss orders one to do something inexplicably stupid that introduces a subtle flaw, an order that one would not expect your boss to give, or even to understand, but the flaw does not flat out report everything directly to the NSA, and the flaw is arguable – one is not flat out breaking security, it is just subtly weak, in a way complicated to explain and not entirely trivial to exploit.

And when you try to explain the problem to him he does not want to listen, and is unable to understand.

I conjecture that this is what happened to the Avatar Privacy plugin.

The flaw, explained by Prince Charming and checked by me is that the salt does not salt – it is same salt for every user, and the salt is quite short, thirty two bits, and thus can be easily reversed by exhaustive search. Given one known email, one can reverse the salt. Given the salt, one can reverse the hash of the any email. You have to throw the entire population of potential email addresses, which may well be enormous, at the hash of the email, but this does not take that long.

The central authority has a list of everyone they could do harm to, and try the list against the hash of the emails of the blog commenters who have offended by displaying inadequate holiness.

I could have fixed the salt part, and perhaps I will, but instead used a 256 bit site wide secret prepended to every hash directly in the source code.

return \hash( 'sha256', "my custom secret"."{$this->get_salt()}{$identifer}" );

This results in everyone randomly getting a new avatar, which will likely be different from the old one.

My blog has been down for a while – the perils of being your own system administrator.

Because of political events, I have moved the blog onto a server physically located on the boundary between the US empire and the Chinese hegemony, in a country that piously proclaims fealty to both, and tends to be left alone by both.

(Which means we are now being spied on by twice as many people, but they will probably forget about shutting me down and all that.)

While I can blame lots of other people for lots of things that went wrong in the move, the chief errors were my own.

If you have problems viewing this site or commenting, clear your browser caches (except for passwords and such)

Some browsers cached messed up data during the transition.

I am feeling optimistic about my safety, because I have taken some additional precautions, and the move seems to have taken me off the radar. About America, not so much.

After the Republic died in Rome, it took a long time for a new political order capable of cohesive action to appear, and even after Caesar Augustus took power, it took him twelve years to get things in some sort of order.

Elections and due process have gone down, and most of the civil service is in similar shape.

Sulla restored the Republic the only way it could be restored, at swordpoint with considerable slaughter.

The restoration lasted twenty one years, then the Republic died again of the same causes.

But for fourteen years after it died, until shortly after the assassination of Caesar, everyone acted as if the dead Republic was still alive, as if due process and free elections were still in effect.

Frequently with fatal consequences.

The politically correct story of the Roman Republic is that it died of ambitious generals with troops personally loyal to their general.

This just is not true. There was a terrible vacuum that demanded a general to restore order at swordpoint and enforce at swordpoint the cooperation that makes collective action possible, and that vacuum twice persisted for an extraordinarily unreasonable time before a general finally did. The Republic died twice, but things superficially appeared to keep happening as they used to for a while because of old people with old habits acting in ways that used to make sense, but were no longer sane or safe in the new reality.

Because the CEO, the sovereign, cannot be everywhere at once and decide everything he constructs a process that will generally produce an acceptable result if everyone follows it.

But, not everyone is going to follow it.

There is an interesting mathematical theorem from computer science that it takes at most one third of the parties engaging in Byzantine defection to subvert any process. It does not take majority defection, and unless the process is robustly designed to resist Byzantine faults, like the processes of the Venetian Republic in the days of its greatness, which requires immense amount of bullshit and heavy overheads, it takes far less than a third defecting.

The reason is that the people defecting from the process necessarily have a considerable advantage in getting their way over people who do not defect, an advantage that can be mathematically proven is always at least two to one, and is usually far more than two to one. Getting it down to two to one requires smart people designing the process.

A process that can resist one third Byzantine faults always has enormous overheads compared to a process that assumes no Byzantine faults.

If Trump’s people play by the rules, and other people do not play by the rules which is what has been happening, Trump’s people are going to get screwed.

So, by and by, everyone stops playing by the rules, as in the recent exposes of NSA misconduct, as in the recent election, as in the recent court decisions, and too many other instances to count.

But if everyone stops playing by the rules, then collective action becomes difficult. As the Russians complained of America under Obama, “America is not agreement capable.” Notoriously the State Department is owned by Israel. And by Saudi Arabia. And by China. And by assorted Hunter Biden type grifters. All the mutually contradictory conspiracy theories are simultaneously true.

Now in a private company, when you detect Byzantine faults you suspect Byzantine defection, and fire people till it goes away.

Obviously this does not happen in the public service. So the public service tends to become corrupt and incapable of collective action, incapable of serving its purpose.

If Biden gets in, then the people pulling his strings will find that the way they got in makes it impossible to get anything done. Until they start shooting judges and public servants, which I expect to start happening around 2026 or so if Trump fails to start shooting people sooner than that.

In the Roman Republic, the processes stopped working. Caesar incorrectly assumed that it was still impossible for respectable people to publicly murder other respectable people in public. And his assassins incorrectly assumed that after they assassinated Caesar, it would once again become impossible. He was wrong.

And they were wrong. Interesting times ahead.

This blog, and the associated email addresses are going away until it becomes apparent which way the wind blows.

I am going to sell the domain name.

When it becomes apparent which way the wind blows, a similar blog, with all the original content and comments, will re-open on a less valuable domain name in a safer administration.

Bets on the outcome of current events should be settled in 2020 january 21 with ushwx@protonmail.ch
gpg fingerprint: 0D6ABF58AA31AF9594E70E4673E4BC62E92B87D7

The blog will go into maintenance mode in due course. If things go well, it should start redirecting to a domain with a cheaper domain name on which the blog is no longer in maintenance mode. If things go badly, I am pursuing a course of action based on blockchains and cryptography, while waiting for a Sulla, a Cromwell, or a Stalin. If a Cromwell or a Stalin, I will prepare the way for a General Monck or a Putin.

Whether this domain name will start redirecting to a new domain name depends on my judgment of events. A new blog with all the original content will probably open somewhere, but you may have to discover it.

This blog has never been in the business of covering today’s news, but rather of covering the long sweep of history, and putting today’s news in the long sweep of history.

And today’s news amounts to the fact that we are not going to get a good look at the ballots printed at midnight after the voting finished until and unless Trump proclaims the Insurrection Act:

The President, by using the militia or the armed forces, or both, or by any other means, shall take such measures as he considers necessary to suppress, in a State, any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy, if it-

so hinders the execution of the laws of that State, and of the United States within the State, that any part or class of its people is deprived of a right, privilege, immunity, or protection named in the Constitution and secured by law, and the constituted authorities of that State are unable, fail, or refuse to protect that right, privilege, or immunity, or to give that protection; or

opposes or obstructs the execution of the laws of the United States or impedes the course of justice under those laws.

We have a conspiracy hindering the execution of the laws of numerous State, and of the United States within those States. And the conspirators need to be detained, preferably in Alaska as far from Washington as possible, by using the militia or the armed forces, or both, or by any other means, and questioned, by military intelligence and loyalist federal cops.

And now, back to the long sweep of history.

A King creates a virtuous elite, as King Alfred the Great and Charles the Second did. A virtuous elite, having internal cohesion and trust, is quite capable of running the country without much Kingly supervision, and the King is apt to be quite content to focus on fornication, partying, and hunting, so the Kingdom gradually becomes a Republic, at first de-facto, and eventually in name and truth.

But a Republic lacks effectual means of dealing with misconduct in the elite, so cooperation and trust in the elite breaks down. They turn to the masses to resolve their internal conflicts, and the Republic becomes a democracy. As evil flourishes, and cooperation continues to break down, it eventually comes to pass that the stakes on the table are too high, so the Republic, or the Democratic Republic, dies.

Democracy requires a level of trust and comity between the parties that no longer exists.

The loser has to believe that loss will not be total, permanent, and result in his destruction.

Because the Democrats have been indulged by law enforcement for a long time, they have committed all manner of crimes, and will go to jail if law enforcement is done in an impartial manner.

Because law enforcement is not done in an impartial manner, the Republicans will go to jail if it is not fixed. If Republicans lose power now, they are permanently and irreversibly out of power, and many of them will wind up in prison or worse. Paul Rand times ten thousand, because the man who attempted to murder Kyle on video is free as a bird.

Caesar became an enemy of the Republic by crossing the Rubicon, but he had to cross the Rubicon because otherwise would have been charged and convicted of no end of political offenses.

However this thing ends, one side or the other is going to jail, and if it ends with Trump out of power, Trump’s family will eventually be executed. Initially they will only be imprisoned, but as $#!% continues to hit the fan, they will eventually, like the Romanovs and the family of Louis XVI, become too dangerous to live.

Fixing law enforcement is going to require proclaiming the Insurrection act, and it may well become necessary to call out the unorganized militia and organize it. Nothing less is likely to suffice.

Too much is on the table for democracy to continue, and it has not continued. To restore a genuine Republic requires the creation of a well behaved elite. It will take at least a century, even if we start right away.

Trying to fix ballot counting requires sending a pile of people to prison, which ups the stakes even further. There is no way to bring the stakes down to something consistent with a Republic, because our elite is corrupt, degenerate, and decadent. You have to create a new, virtuous, elite. Start by purging Harvard, or leveling it to the ground and building a new Harvard, a Harvard run by men who are married, God fearing, Christian, and have well behaved children. (Or, in the case of India, gods fearing.) The battle of Waterloo was won on the playing fields of Eton. We are going to need a Caesar Augustus, and Caesar Augustus is going to need, like Constantine, a state religion that works to produce a virtuous elite.

Caesar’s problem was that all the genuinely virtuous gods fearing people were on the side of the Republic. He had only bad people. And the problem that all the genuinely virtuous gods fearing people had is that they were on the side of a Republic that had died a long time previously. Don’t do what they did. Trying to fix harvesting and registration is doing what they did. You cannot do it unless you purge or dismiss the the three letter agencies, and if you purge or dismiss the three letter agencies, the existing Democrat organization is going to jail.

Marius failed because he upped the stakes so far that the Roman Republic could not continue. Sulla’s problem was that he restored a dead Republic. Caesar’s problem was that he was an enemy of the (undead) Republic and had only bad people around him. Augustus Caesar succeeded because he “restored” the Republic – but made sure the fact that it was dead was not a problem.

But Augustus Caesar had a problem in that insofar as he had a live state religion, he had a hostile state religion. He tried emperor worship, the equivalent of Deng Xiaoping theory, but nothing worked until Constantine adopted Christianity as the state religion. Constantine also built a new capital far from the swamp.

What Putin is doing, making Russian Orthodoxy the state religion, is working. What Deng Xiaoping did looks like it is sort of working so far, but, like Augustus Caesar’s emperor worship, obviously fragile. Deng Xiaoping theory is “learn truth from facts”, which is a mighty good start, the main fact from which they learned truth being that socialism does not work, but the since the state religion is incarnated in the head of state, the facts are what the party says they are.

Charles the second instituted the rule “Nullius in verba”, which obligates you to check stuff for yourself, or at least identify the person who checked stuff himself and listen to what he said, rather than what someone else says he said. I walked in the footsteps of Leonardo da Vinci and Lyell, and I myself verified with my own pickaxe and my own eyes that the Earth is immensely old, not because I had any doubt that I would see what they saw, but because I was raised to believe that one had a moral obligation to use primary sources or, better, much better, one’s own observations, that the Wikipedia style reliance on highly derived sources is not merely unwise, but wicked.