Christian evangelicals have a one sided love affair with Israel. They love Israel, and Israel hates them. They misinterpret the Book of Revelations. The Jews have returned to Israel for another chance at redemption, which requires them to come to Jesus. The way the wind blows, they have returned to Israel for another tribulation. If America goes Christian nationalist, then Israel might go Messianic Jew, in which case a less …
Category: war
Future war
Airsea power is going down. After ever increasing efforts to keep their fleet in Sebastopol, the Russians are finally pulling their fleet back, despite clear and overwhelming airsea dominance over Ukraine. If the Russians are pulling their fleet back from Sebastopol, US airsea bases ringing China are just hostages. Drone warfare has become dominant, and is rapidly becoming more dominant, rendering grunts trudging through mud increasingly irrelevant. In future war …
Ukraine counter offensive update.
I don’t cover the events of the day, but in my previous post I remarked: This is not a tactic that can be repeated too many times. You continually need fresh troops. And they are now running mighty short of fresh troops. At the moment the offensive is stalled, awaiting the next shipment of fresh cannon fodder. I have repeatedly been surprised by their ability to dig up more cannon …
Three months of the greatest Ukrainian offensive
The offensive seems to be turning out much as it turned out three months ago. They have tried for a breakthrough in lots of places over a broad front, with uniformly disappointing results. The goal of counter envelopment of Bakhmut was swiftly abandoned early in the offensive. The goal of cutting through to sea of Azov, thus breaking the land bridge to Crimea was downsized to taking Tokmak, which would …
Vivek Ramaswami, empire, and Thermidor
The Republic is dead. No matter what happens, and numerous unexpected and unthinkable twists in the road are coming up, we will end with a Stalin or Napoleon or Cromwell. If we are lucky and brave, a Caesar. Vivek Ramaswami’s policy positions are wonderful. He tries to out Trump Trump. And some faction in the deep state is protecting him. But there is something deeply fake about him. And it …
Russia’s draft Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and NATO
Russian war aims are vastly broader than the Ukraine: In December of 2021, Russia proposed an agreement on “Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization†The American reaction was shock, indignation, and genuine surprise. Surprise that Russia had the outrageous effrontery to ask for security. The proposed agreement is on its face a completely reasonable deal, just the normal …
Possible outcomes of war in the Ukraine
Both sides have been fighting in the Ukraine using World War I tactics, and developments in the war have so far recapitulated World War I. Towards the end of World War I, the Germans, finally realizing they were going to lose the war of attrition, because of the immense industrial capability of America, attempted to regain war of movement, with underwhelming success, and eventually could no longer attempt to do …
The Great Ukrainian Counter Offensive
Normally I do not report on or respond to the day’s news. This blog is about what the news of decade or a century ago turned out to mean. And no end of people are reporting on the day’s news, most of whom have researched it far more thoroughly than I am willing to do. But, prematurely, I am going to report on what this offensive seems to have turned …
War and game theory
Jesus as game theory: In a world of imperfect information, one tit for two tats. Old Testament marriage and family law as game theory: If you are stuck with with each other, the deal is going to generate value even if the value very unequally distributed, but if not stuck, prisoner’s dilemma. Negative sum actions are likely to be individually beneficial. It might seem obvious that if everyone could correctly …
American logistic capability
American GDP is fake and gay. American GDP is for the most part not riggers in red states lifting steel, workers on the assembly line, cattle ranchers raising cattle, nor even truckers, warehouses, and shops moving goods from where they are made to where they are used, it is people in blue states doing business in permissions that allow riggers to lift steel and ranchers to raise cattle. American GDP …