I don’t cover the events of the day, but in my previous post I remarked: This is not a tactic that can be repeated too many times. You continually need fresh troops. And they are now running mighty short of fresh troops. At the moment the offensive is stalled, awaiting the next shipment of fresh cannon fodder. I have repeatedly been surprised by their ability to dig up more cannon fodder, and likely I will be surprised again, but they …
Category: war
Three months of the greatest Ukrainian offensive
The offensive seems to be turning out much as it turned out three months ago. They have tried for a breakthrough in lots of places over a broad front, with uniformly disappointing results. The goal of counter envelopment of Bakhmut was swiftly abandoned early in the offensive. The goal of cutting through to sea of Azov, thus breaking the land bridge to Crimea was downsized to taking Tokmak, which would significantly and substantially impair the land bridge to Crimea. but …
Vivek Ramaswami, empire, and Thermidor
The Republic is dead. No matter what happens, and numerous unexpected and unthinkable twists in the road are coming up, we will end with a Stalin or Napoleon or Cromwell. If we are lucky and brave, a Caesar. Vivek Ramaswami’s policy positions are wonderful. He tries to out Trump Trump. And some faction in the deep state is protecting him. But there is something deeply fake about him. And it is most odd that he gets away with stuff which …
Russia’s draft Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and NATO
Russian war aims are vastly broader than the Ukraine: In December of 2021, Russia proposed an agreement on “Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation” The American reaction was shock, indignation, and genuine surprise. Surprise that Russia had the outrageous effrontery to ask for security. The proposed agreement is on its face a completely reasonable deal, just the normal boring behavior of normal states to each other, that should …
Possible outcomes of war in the Ukraine
Both sides have been fighting in the Ukraine using World War I tactics, and developments in the war have so far recapitulated World War I. Towards the end of World War I, the Germans, finally realizing they were going to lose the war of attrition, because of the immense industrial capability of America, attempted to regain war of movement, with underwhelming success, and eventually could no longer attempt to do so. They gained considerable territory, which gains merely put them …
The Great Ukrainian Counter Offensive
Normally I do not report on or respond to the day’s news. This blog is about what the news of decade or a century ago turned out to mean. And no end of people are reporting on the day’s news, most of whom have researched it far more thoroughly than I am willing to do. But, prematurely, I am going to report on what this offensive seems to have turned out to mean. The original plan of the Global American …
War and game theory
Jesus as game theory: In a world of imperfect information, one tit for two tats. Old Testament marriage and family law as game theory: If you are stuck with with each other, the deal is going to generate value even if the value very unequally distributed, but if not stuck, prisoner’s dilemma. Negative sum actions are likely to be individually beneficial. It might seem obvious that if everyone could correctly predict the outcome of a war, no one would go …
American logistic capability
American GDP is fake and gay. American GDP is for the most part not riggers in red states lifting steel, workers on the assembly line, cattle ranchers raising cattle, nor even truckers, warehouses, and shops moving goods from where they are made to where they are used, it is people in blue states doing business in permissions that allow riggers to lift steel and ranchers to raise cattle. American GDP is the HR department, not the trucker. America produces about …
Yandex
We have received two huge benefits from the Ukraine war. One is that when Putin intervened in the Ukraine conflict, the Global American Empire everywhere overnight stopped enforcing worship of the awesome and mighty covid demon. The public announcements that masking and jabs were compulsory continued for a while, but everyone ignored them, and gradually they are stopping. Kind of like everyone started ignoring female emancipation when they tossed it in the lead up to World War II, even though …
Still fighting 1913 war in the information epoch
Military summary channel gives daily reports on the war in the Ukraine. His account is one of continual struggles for high ground and observation points, with Russians advancing over low ground at high cost to grab a high point. Wagner’s movie of the war depicting one small but horrific battle for one small observation point. (hat tip Kunning Druegger) This account is fictionalized but was produced by people who waded through blood, and is consistent in detail with the real …